Activities and demographic trends in UK astronomy

The 1998 Demographic Trends Survey represents a snapshot of the astronomical community as it was in February 1998. On the positive side, there was a modest increase in the number of permanent academics in university positions over the five years covered by the survey. However, the survey also highlights several areas of concern. These include: the tension between the expansion in the university research groups on the one hand, and the decrease in PPARC funding for central facilities and grants on the other; the significant fall in the numbers of permanent technical staff in the universities; the lack of women in permanent and senior positions in UK astronomy; and the overall poor job prospects in astronomy for recent PhD students and postdocs.
Clive Tadhunter reports on the state of astronomy in the UK.     

天文学与自然灾害研究

本文概述了天文因素与自然灾害的可能的关系,以及开展天文与自然灾害相关研究的意义和可能性,认为此类交叉研究是自然灾害研究中的重要方面,同时简述了天文与自然灾害相关研究的现状和进展,对今后开展这一研究的有关问题提出了一些建议。     

ENSO和长江大水对天文因子的响应研究

ENSO（厄尔尼诺和南方涛动的总称）对世界尺度的天气气候有影响,本文用概率论统计检验方法,查明长江大水与ENSO以及ENSO与天文因子的相关关系,并系统分析了三者之间的相关关系。结果表明:ENSO事件对天文物理主周期和天文特征有明显的响应,长江大水年对太阳活动特征、节气日的月相年变化和ENSO也有显著的响应关系。这些关系对长江大水的准确预测有重要价值。文中对天文物理因子对ENSO和大水的影响机理进行了探讨。     

天文因素与地震灾害关系研究的进展

现代科学研究表明,地震活动与众多天文因素的变化有程度不等的联系,本文主要介绍了天文因素与地震灾害关系领域近年来的研究进展,归纳和描述了引起地震活动性变化的主要天文因素,文中详细讨论了地球自转速率变化、太阳活动、日月引潮力变化对地震活动影响的研究进展,对可能影响地震灾害的其他一些天文因子,如地磁变化、极移等作了初步的分析.     

Anthony Patrick Fairall (1943–2008)

Associate of the RAS, mapper of the large-scale structure of the local universe, and popular astronomy author and advocate, well-known as Director of Cape Town Planetarium.     

Astronomical calibration of the Matuyama-Brunhes boundary: Consequences for magnetic remanence acquisition in marine carbonates and the Asian loess sequences

We have compiled 19 records from marine carbonate cores in which the Matuyama-Brunhes boundary (MBB) has been reasonably well constrained within the astronomically forced stratigraphic framework using oxygen isotopes. By correlation of the δ¹⁸O data to a timescale based on astronomical forcing, we estimate astronomical ages for each of the MBB horizons. In all but one record the MBB occurs within Stage 19.

Most magnetostratigraphic sections in Asian Loess place the MBB within a loess interval. Since loess deposition is presumed to be associated with glacial intervals, loess horizons should correspond to even-numbered oxygen isotope stages. A glacial age for the MBB is at odds with the results presented here, which firmly place the MBB within interglacial Stage 19. Inconsistency among the many loess sections and between the loess and the marine records suggests that the magnetic interpretation of loess sections may be more complicated than hitherto supposed.

The mean of the Stage 19 age estimates for the MBB is 777.9 ± 1.8 (N = 18). Inclusion of the single Stage 20 age results in a mean of 778.8 ± 2.5 (N = 19). The astronomical age estimate of the MBB compares favorably with an (unweighted) mean of 778.2 ± 3.5 (N = 10) from a compilation of ⁴⁰Ar/39^Ar results of transitional lava flows. Combining the two independent data sets yields a grand mean of 778.0 ± 1.7 (N = 28).

The new compilation shows virtually no trend in placement of the MBB within isotope Stage 19 as a function of sediment accumulation rate. We interpret this to mean that the average depth of remanence acquisition is within a few centimeters of the sediment-water interface.

Separating the cores into two geographic regions (an Indo-Pacific-Caribbean [IPC] Group and an Atlantic Group) results in a significant difference in the position of the mid-point of the reversal with respect to the astronomical time scale. The data presented here suggest a difference of several thousand years between the two regions. This observation could be caused by systematic differences between the two regions in sedimentation rate within the interval of interest, systematic differences in remanence acquisition, or by genuine differences in the timing of the directional changes between the two regions.     

The recently compiled Turkish strong motion database: preliminary investigation for seismological parameters

Strong motion data recorded by the Turkish national strong motion network has been compiled and processed systematically for the first time, together with detailed geophysical and geotechnical site measurements for all of its stations. The catalog information of 18 seismological agencies and other sources were examined to obtain reliable source, geometry, and distance parameters for each event. The high quality digital and analog strong motion data was processed by a uniform methodology to remove the high- and low-frequency noise. Currently, the seismological and spectral information of 4,607 strong motion records are available for use by earth scientists and earthquake engineers. In this article, we present the fundamental features of this database and explain our methodology in their calculation. We present several comparisons of our database with other related studies to verify our approach during the computational stage of the seismological parameters. The results confirm the reliability of our calculations. The database has also enabled us to derive empirical magnitude conversion relationships to estimate moment magnitude in terms of different magnitude scales. The article ends with a discussion of the likely improvements in the European accelerometric data through contributions from this strong motion database applicable for seismically active shallow-crust regions. The findings of this article emphasize the necessity of global strong motion databases in Europe for better estimation of seismic hazard in regions of similar seismotectonic environment.     

小波变换应用于日长变化的研究进展

随着空间测地技术的发展,日长变化的观测资料已经达到了空前高的程度,迫切需要合适的数学工具和方法从这些高精度的观测资料中提取有价值的信息.近些年,小波变换被应用于天文学和地球科学的资料分析中,它通过伸缩和平移等运算对时间信号进行多尺度的细化分析,从中提取有效的信息.本文主要介绍了小波变换应用于日长变化的研究进展,并初步探讨该领域以后的研究方向.     

Current research in urban hydrogeology – A review

Urban groundwater is a heritage at risk because urban land use practises puts enormous and highly complex pressure on this resource. In this article, we review urban groundwater studies in the context of urban water management, discuss advances in hydrogeological investigation, monitoring and modelling techniques for urban areas and highlight the challenges. We present how techniques on contaminant concentration measurements, water balancing and contaminant load estimation were applied and further developed for the special requirements in urban settings. To fully understand and quantify the complex urban water systems, we need to refine these methods and combine them with sophisticated modelling approaches. Only then we will be able to sustainably manage our water resources in and around our urban areas especially in light of growing cities and global climatic change. We believe that over the next few years much more effort will be devoted to research in urban hydrogeology.     

Improved water-level forecasting for the Northwest European Shelf and North Sea through direct modelling of tide, surge and non-linear interaction

In real-time operational coastal forecasting systems for the northwest European shelf, the representation accuracy of tide–surge models commonly suffers from insufficiently accurate tidal representation, especially in shallow near-shore areas with complex bathymetry and geometry. Therefore, in conventional operational systems, the surge component from numerical model simulations is used, while the harmonically predicted tide, accurately known from harmonic analysis of tide gauge measurements, is added to forecast the full water-level signal at tide gauge locations. Although there are errors associated with this so-called astronomical correction (e.g. because of the assumption of linearity of tide and surge), for current operational models, astronomical correction has nevertheless been shown to increase the representation accuracy of the full water-level signal. The simulated modulation of the surge through non-linear tide–surge interaction is affected by the poor representation of the tide signal in the tide–surge model, which astronomical correction does not improve. Furthermore, astronomical correction can only be applied to locations where the astronomic tide is known through a harmonic analysis of in situ measurements at tide gauge stations. This provides a strong motivation to improve both tide and surge representation of numerical models used in forecasting. In the present paper, we propose a new generation tide–surge model for the northwest European Shelf (DCSMv6). This is the first application on this scale in which the tidal representation is such that astronomical correction no longer improves the accuracy of the total water-level representation and where, consequently, the straightforward direct model forecasting of total water levels is better. The methodology applied to improve both tide and surge representation of the model is discussed, with emphasis on the use of satellite altimeter data and data assimilation techniques for reducing parameter uncertainty. Historic DCSMv6 model simulations are compared against shelf wide observations for a full calendar year. For a selection of stations, these results are compared to those with astronomical correction, which confirms that the tide representation in coastal regions has sufficient accuracy, and that forecasting total water levels directly yields superior results.     

地震电磁卫星电离层扰动研究进展综述

本文总结了国内外关于地震电离层扰动现象研究的主要进展, 主要介绍了法国DEMETER卫星及其相关的统计研究和震例研究成果, 总结了目前地震电离层扰动前兆震例研究的一般步骤, 介绍了地震孕育过程中产生的电磁异常信息向电离层传播的可能途径, 包括化学途径、 声学途径和电磁途径。 大量的研究成果表明地震电离层异常的存在, 在地震发生前几个小时至几天或几个月电离层扰动被探测到, 但是地震电离层扰动前兆能否作为地震预报方法, 还有许多需要深入研究的问题。 本文提出了地震电离层研究需要解决的几个重要问题。     

Astronomical forcing in Upper Miocene continental sequences: implications for the Geomagnetic Polarity Time Scale

We present an integrated stratigraphic study of cyclically bedded distal alluvial fan to lacustrine deposits in the late Miocene continental sections of Cascante and Cañizar (Teruel basin, NE Spain). The cyclostratigraphic analysis reveals that different scales of sedimentary cyclicity are present with a thickness ratio of about 1:2:5. Spectral analysis of colour records in the depth domain indicates the presence of a significant peak at ∼2.2 m, which corresponds to the average thickness of the basic, mudstone-carbonate, cycle. Other peaks correspond to the large-scale cycle, which consists of clusters of five basic cycles, and to a cycle twice the average thickness of the basic cycle. Magnetostratigraphic results, in combination with small-mammal biostratigraphy, indicate that the three normal polarity intervals recorded in our sections correspond to C5n.2n, C5n.1n and C4Ar.2n. Assigning the ages of CK95 to the polarity reversals implies significant changes in sedimentation rate, which is not in agreement with the regularity of the sedimentary cyclicity. Thus, spectral analysis of high-resolution colour records in the time domain only produce a spectrum that is consistent with Milankovitch climate forcing, if several of the assigned age tie points are excluded. This indicates that the sedimentary cyclicity in these sections is related to astronomical variations in climate and that the ages of reversal boundaries are in error. Hence, we have calculated the astronomical durations for C4Ar.2n (87 ky), C4Ar.3r (54 ky), C5n.1n (141 ky), and C5n.1r (33 ky), which indeed show significant discrepancies with CK95. The duration pattern of our polarity intervals is confirmed by seafloor anomaly profiles and magnetostratigraphic records of deep-sea cores. Consequently, this study demonstrates that astronomically forcing in continental sequences can be a powerful tool to improve the fundamental dating of the geological record.     

四川地区地震前跨断层数据异常分析

概述四川7.0级以上大震前观测场地的异常情况。在核实2个大震震前异常的基础上,将传统异常判别方法进行汇总。总结近年来针对跨断层监测数据进行分析进而识别异常的方法:原始数据反映的断层活动速率异常以及转折异常。在此基础上,引入小波分析的方法对大震前的异常进行判别。对小波分解得到的两个趋势项进行分析,发现了大震与小波分解项异常的对应性。最后,基于对原始数据和小波分解项的分析,提出利用跨断层数据分析大震前兆的参考意见,为以后的震前异常研究工作提供了基础。     

From discovery to prediction of magnetospheric processes

Over the last 50 years magnetospheric research has transferred its focus from geomagnetism to space physics, or from inferring the intensity of extraterrestrial currents, through discoveries of the main plasma regions in the magnetosphere, to predicting the processes occurring in the entire solar wind–magnetosphere–ionosphere system. Relating advances in magnetospheric physics to the framework of substorm research, this review paper demonstrates that the “recent” space age since 1960s consisted of (1) an exploratory/discovery phase in which the magnetotail, the plasma sheet, and the acceleration region of auroral particles were identified, and (2) a phase of comprehensive understanding in which we have attempted to comprehend the nature and significance of the near-Earth space environment. This progress in solar-terrestrial physics has coincided with a number of new discoveries of solar and interplanetary phenomena such as magnetic clouds, coronal mass ejections and coronal holes. Computer simulation techniques have been developed to the degree that satellite observations from a very limited number of points can be used to trace and reproduce the main energy processes. We are now entering a new phase in which we hope to be able to predict the dynamic processes that take place in the solar-terrestrial environment.     

Observed Exoplanets and Intelligent Life

If intelligent life were common in the Universe, should we not be aware of it on Earth through contact with advanced space ships and automatic probes? Would we not at least expect to intercept communication signals between space travellers? That this is not found has led to much speculation in the past. Recent discoveries of planets around other stars (called here exoplanets) and, separately, recent discoveries in the evolution of life on Earth, including Homo sapiens, allow this question to be considered again but now with more information than before. This is the subject of the present paper. The study involves aspects of physics and chemistry in combination with biological studies. It is concluded here that the places where technologically capable intelligent life might be expected to be found in our Galaxy are so few that any such “centres of civilisation” must be separated by large distances, probably in excess of 50 light years. If true, this would make the different centres essentially isolated and would suggest that each manifestation of advanced intelligent life is a purely local development. This would agree with our experience of aloneness. Nevertheless, the number of centres throughout the Universe would still be astronomically large, even if each galaxy had only one centre. An hypothesis is proposed which could account for the existence of such centres in this form.     

城市活断层与破坏性地震探讨--对苏州地区活断层探测的思考

近年来,大城市附近的大地震造成大量人员伤亡和财产损失,而地震的元凶是活动的断层。对隐伏在城市地下的活断层进行研究,探明其位置和活动特性,采取正确的应对措施,对于减轻地震灾害具有重大的现实意义,世界上许多国家也越来越重视对活断层的研究。本文着重对活断层与地震灾害、活断层的研究现状和研究方法以及苏州地区的断层情况进行了探讨。     

地球自转对强震震中附近中小地震的影响

论述2008年5月12日四川汶川Ms8.0地震和2010年4月14日青海玉树Ms7.1地震前震中附近中小地震和地球自转季节性变化的关系,介绍1970年以来中国大陆其他14例M≥7.0地震震例.研究发现,在强震前几年时间内,震中附近地区的中小地震有偏向发生于地球自转速率季节性变化加速或者减速某一阶段的现象.该结果对深入认识地震与地球自转之间的关系具有一定启示意义,对地震预测具有一定指导意义.     

A summary of seismic activities in and around China in 2021

In this article, we review the general characteristics of seismicity in and around China and the overall statistics of earthquake damage in 2021, focusing on several significant events and related scientific topics. Among them, the largest event is the M_S 7.4 Madoi earthquake in Qinghai Province, northwest China. The event marks another M_S ?≥ ?7 earthquake occurring near the boundary of the Bayan Har Block that has ended a remarkable quiescence of the M_S ?≥ ?7 earthquakes within the Chinese mainland. In addition, the M_S 6.4 Yangbi earthquake in Yunnan Province, southwest China draws the most attention because of its abundant foreshocks, which are well recorded by the densely distributed seismic stations in the surrounding regions. Regarding this event, we review several recent publications focusing on the Gutenberg-Richter b-value change and the physical mechanism of foreshocks associated with this sequence. The M_S 6.0 Luxian earthquake in Sichuan Province, southwest China has caused serious damage with a relatively low magnitude, partly because the focal depth of the mainshock is relatively shallow (3.5 ?km). It is another strong earthquake occurring within the southeast Sichuan basin with low historical seismicity yet has increased significantly since 2015, probably due to shale gas development and associated hydraulic fracturing.     

我国地震的现今地球动力学研究的进展与方向

本文从活动构造、大陆地壳形变与现代地壳运动、地震活动区与大震震源区的深部探测及动力学、大陆强震区的地壳介质结构与地震成因、构造的物理及数值模拟、大陆岩石圈动力学以及地球动力学模型研究七个方面扼要介绍了近年来我国开展的与地震有关的现今地球动力学研究进展和取得的一系列新认识以及研究动向。在此基础上提出了微动态地球动力学，上地幔的非均匀性、深浅部构造关系及其动力学和地球动力学模型的理论研究三个应该优先发展的研究领域。