A Geophysical Study of the Carcavai Fault Zone, Portugal

The Algarve province is located a few hundred kilometres north of the crossing of the E–W Eurasia–Africa plate boundary in an area of diffuse seismicity and broad deformation. It is characterised by a moderate seismicity, with some important historical and instrumental earthquakes causing loss of lives and significant material damages. The area is affected not only by plate boundary earthquakes but also by moderate to large events generated by local sources. The assessment of onshore local sources is, therefore, of vital importance for an evaluation of the regional seismic hazard. This paper discusses the application of geophysical data to the study of the Carcavai fault zone, an outcropping structure more than 20?km long which is seen to deform sediments of the Plio-Quaternary age. The location of some sectors of the fault zone, as well as the vertical offsets of the structure, are still to be confirmed. In order to estimate these and to study the geometry of the fault zone at depth, geophysical data were acquired together with new geological data. Where the location of the fault was less certain, EM and seismic reflection profiles with coarse spatial sampling were carried out. After the detailed location of the fault zone, seismic reflection profiles with a more dense spatial resolution were acquired. The integrated interpretation of the geological and geophysical data confirmed the presence of a large fault zone. The total fault length is still unknown as its extension offshore is still being studied. Together with estimated values of the throw obtained, this data set has improved understanding the seismic hazard in the area by providing more refined estimates of co-seismic rupture, maximum expected earthquake and return periods.     

A Morphostructural Zoning of the Mountainous Crimea and the Possible Locations of Future Earthquakes

The locations of possible earthquake occurrence (magnitudes M ≥ 6) have been determined for mountainous Crimea and the adjacent sea shelf, including the continental slope zone. The earthquake-generating structures were assumed to be intersections of morphostructural lineaments as found by morphostructural zoning. The measurement of geological and geophysical characteristics was followed by applying a decision rule that was derived previously using the CORA-3 pattern recognition algorithm in order to find possible locations of M ≥ 6 earthquakes in the Caucasus. The results corroborate the high seismic potential for the Yalta area where two events with magnitudes of 6.0 and 6.8 occurred in 1927, as well as indicating the possibility of M ≥ 6 earthquakes in other areas in mountainous Crimea and in the adjacent Black Sea area where no such events have yet been recorded.     

闽粤海外历史地震与台湾海峡现今强震活动图像

闽粤两省强烈地震多发生在沿海地区,且福建南日岛至广东南澳一线的泉州－汕头地震带地震活动尤为突出。历史上东南沿海地震带曾发生过４次７级以上大地震,而其中３次都发生在泉－汕段海域,继华南地区本世纪著名的１９１８年广东南澳７．３级地震后,１９９４年９月１６日台湾海峡南部又发生７．３级强震,这在经济发达,人口稠密的闽粤沿海地区引起了极大关注。本文通过历史强震活动资料,分析闽粤沿海与台湾海峡强震在时间进程,     

Seismicity of the Indian Peninsular Shield from Regional Earthquake Data

--In this comprehensive study of seismicity and seismotectonics of the peninsular Indian shield region, seismic data of regional earthquakes spanning two decades (1978-1997), obtained at Gauribidanur seismic array (India) and integrated where necessary with data from other seismological stations in the region, have been analyzed in detail. With a slow rate of stress accumulation, the shield is found to have low to moderate seismicity that takes into account a couple of earthquakes of magnitude slightly larger than 6. The frequency-magnitude analysis of the data set gives a b value of 1.18. The spatio-temporal pattern of occurrences of the earthquakes combined with their magnitude and seismic energy distribution is consistent with the view that the peninsular seismicity is low to moderate and episodic in nature. Regions of moderate seismicity and its low-grade counterpart constituted by microearthquakes (magnitude less than 3), appear correlated to the areas traversed by known geologic faults and subfaults, shear zones, and other such tectonic features. Microearthquakes represent about two-thirds of the total regional seismic events during the past two decades.     

2020年3月23日新疆拜城5.0级和7月13日霍城5.0级地震总结

2020年3月23日和7月13日,新疆天山中部地区分别发生拜城5.0级和霍城5.0级地震,其中拜城5.0级地震发生在南天山地震带中段,霍城5.0级地震发生在北天山地震带西段.系统总结2次地震前出现的地震活动和地球物理观测异常,结果表明:①拜城5.0级地震:震前主要存在5级地震成组和尼勒克钻孔应变中短期异常;②霍城5.0...     

Seismic Empirical Relations for the Tellian Atlas, North Africa, and their Usefulness for Seismic Risk Assessment

Seismic events that occurred during the past half century in the Tellian Atlas, North Africa, are used to establish fundamental seismic empirical relations, tying earthquake magnitude to source parameters (seismic moment, fault plane area, maximal displacement along the fault, and fault plane length). Those empirical relations applied to the overall seismicity from 1716 to present are used to transform the magnitude (or intensity) versus time distribution into (1) cumulative seismic moment versus time, and (2) cumulative displacements versus time. Both of those parameters as well as the computed seismic moment rate, the strain rate along the Tellian Atlas strike, and various other geological observations are consistent with the existence, in the Tellian Atlas, of three distinct active tectonic blocks. These blocks are seismically decoupled from each other, thus allowing consideration of the seismicity as occurring in three different distinct seismotectonic blocks. The cumulative displacement versus time from 1900 to present for each of these tectonic blocks presents a remarkable pattern of recurrence time intervals and precursors associated with major earthquakes. Indeed, most major earthquakes that occurred in these three blocks might have been predicted in time. The Tellian Atlas historical seismicity from the year 881 to the present more substantially confirms these observations, in particular for the western block of the Tellian Atlas. Theoretical determination of recurrence time intervals for the Tellian Atlas large earthquakes using Molnar and Kostrov formalisms is also consistent with these observations. Substantial observations support the fact that the western and central Tellian Atlas are currently at very high seismic risk, in particular the central part. Indeed, most of the accumulated seismic energy in the central Tellian Atlas crust has yet to be released, despite the occurrence of the recent destructive May 2003 Boumerdes earthquake (M _w = 6.8). The accumulated seismic energy is equivalent to a magnitude 7.6 earthquake. In situ stress and geodetic measurements, as well as other geophysical field data measurements, are now required to practically check the validity of those observations.     

K-means cluster analysis and seismicity partitioning for Pakistan

Pakistan and the western Himalaya is a region of high seismic activity located at the triple junction between the Arabian, Eurasian and Indian plates. Four devastating earthquakes have resulted in significant numbers of fatalities in Pakistan and the surrounding region in the past century (Quetta, 1935; Makran, 1945; Pattan, 1974 and the recent 2005 Kashmir earthquake). It is therefore necessary to develop an understanding of the spatial distribution of seismicity and the potential seismogenic sources across the region. This forms an important basis for the calculation of seismic hazard; a crucial input in seismic design codes needed to begin to effectively mitigate the high earthquake risk in Pakistan. The development of seismogenic source zones for seismic hazard analysis is driven by both geological and seismotectonic inputs. Despite the many developments in seismic hazard in recent decades, the manner in which seismotectonic information feeds the definition of the seismic source can, in many parts of the world including Pakistan and the surrounding regions, remain a subjective process driven primarily by expert judgment. Whilst much research is ongoing to map and characterise active faults in Pakistan, knowledge of the seismogenic properties of the active faults is still incomplete in much of the region. Consequently, seismicity, both historical and instrumental, remains a primary guide to the seismogenic sources of Pakistan. This study utilises a cluster analysis approach for the purposes of identifying spatial differences in seismicity, which can be utilised to form a basis for delineating seismogenic source regions. An effort is made to examine seismicity partitioning for Pakistan with respect to earthquake database, seismic cluster analysis and seismic partitions in a seismic hazard context. A magnitude homogenous earthquake catalogue has been compiled using various available earthquake data. The earthquake catalogue covers a time span from 1930 to 2007 and an area from 23.00° to 39.00°N and 59.00° to 80.00°E. A threshold magnitude of 5.2 is considered for K-means cluster analysis. The current study uses the traditional metrics of cluster quality, in addition to a seismic hazard contextual metric to attempt to constrain the preferred number of clusters found in the data. The spatial distribution of earthquakes from the catalogue was used to define the seismic clusters for Pakistan, which can be used further in the process of defining seismogenic sources and corresponding earthquake recurrence models for estimates of seismic hazard and risk in Pakistan. Consideration of the different approaches to cluster validation in a seismic hazard context suggests that Pakistan may be divided into K?=?19 seismic clusters, including some portions of the neighbouring countries of Afghanistan, Tajikistan and India.     

Spatial sensitivity of seismic hazard results to different background seismic activity and temporal earthquake occurrence models

Spatial sensitivity of seismic hazard results to different models with respect to background seismic activity and earthquake occurrence in time is investigated. For the contribution of background seismic activity to seismic hazard, background area source with uniform seismicity and spatially smoothed seismicity models are taken into consideration. For the contribution of faults, through characteristic earthquakes, both the memoryless Poisson and the time dependent renewal models are utilized. A case study, involving the assessment of seismic hazard for the Bursa province in Turkey, is conducted in order to examine quantitatively the influence of these models on seismic hazard results. The spatial variation of the difference in Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) values obtained from these different models is presented in the form of difference maps for return periods of 475 and 2475 years. Best estimate seismic hazard maps for PGA and Spectral Accelerations (SA) at 0.2 and 1.0 s are obtained by using the logic tree method.     

Seismic expression of active extensional faults in northern Umbria (Central Italy)

This paper deals with the geometry and kinematics of the active normal faults in northern Umbria, and their relationship with the seismicity observed in the area. In particular, we illustrate the contribution of seismic reflection data (a network of seismic profiles, NNW–SSE and WSW–ENE trending) in constraining at depth the geometry of the different active fault systems and their reciprocal spatial relationships. The main normal fault in the area is the Alto Tiberina fault, NNW trending and ENE dipping, producing a displacement of about 5 km, and generating a continental basin (Val Tiberina basin), infilled by up to 1500 m with Upper Pliocene–Quaternary deposits. The fault has a staircase trajectory, and can be traced on the seismic profiles to a depth of about 13 km. A set of WSW-dipping, antithetic faults can be recognised on the profiles, the most important of which is the Gubbio fault, bordering an extensional Quaternary basin and interpreted as an active fault based on geological, geomorphologic and seismological evidence. The epicentral distribution of the main historical earthquakes is strictly parallel to the general trend of the normal faults. The focal mechanisms of the major earthquakes show a strong similarity with the attitude of the extensional faults, mapped at the surface and recognised on the seismic profiles. These observations demonstrate the connection between seismicity in the area and the activity of the normal faults. Moreover, the distribution of the instrumental seismicity suggests the activity of the Alto Tiberina fault as the basal detachment for the extensional tectonics of the area. Finally, the action of the Alto Tiberina fault was simulated using two dimensional finite element modelling: a close correspondence between the concentration of shear stresses in the model and the distribution of the present earthquakes was obtained.     

2021年青海玛多7.4级地震前地震活动异常特征分析

结合青海玛多7.4级地震前日常跟踪工作中出现的地震活动异常,系统梳理羌塘块体6级地震成组、中国大陆5级地震低频活动、青藏高原东北缘中等地震活动显著增强以及青藏高原东北缘地区震群活动的时空异常特征,总结多项指标的预测意义,并对部分重要指标做了预测效能评估。同时,通过研究碌曲震群的时空分布特征,认为碌曲地区是一个应力敏感区域,对周边地区中强地震的发生有较好的预测意义,在后续震情监视过程中应该作为重要指标来跟踪。     

Seismicity around the Hekla and Torfajökull volcanoes, Iceland, during a volcanically quiet period, 1991–1995

The volcano Hekla in south Iceland had its latest eruption in January–March 1991. The eruption was accompanied and followed by considerable seismic activity. This study examines the seismicity in the Hekla region (63°42′–64°18′N, 18°30′–20°12′W) during a period when the high activity related to the eruption had ceased, from July 1991 to October 1995. The aim is to define the level of the normal background seismicity of the area that can be compared to the eruption-related activity. The Hekla Volcano proper was generally aseismic during the study period. The most prominent earthquake cluster is in the neighbouring Torfajökull Volcano. The epicentres are concentrated in the western part of the caldera and west of it. The hypocentres are located at all depths from the surface down to 14?km, with highest activity at 5–12?km. Inside this cluster, in the northwest part of the caldera, is a spherical volume void of earthquakes, approximately 4?km in diameter and centred at 8?km depth. This is interpreted as a cooling magma body. Small, low-frequency events of volcanic origin were occasionally recorded at Torfajökull. This activity has mainly occurred in swarms and was most abundant during the first year of the study period, presumably reflecting some kind of connection to the 1991 Hekla eruption. Our study area also includes the easternmost section of the South Iceland seismic zone, a transform zone characterized by bookshelf faulting on transverse faults. Two lineaments of epicentres were identified, roughly corresponding to mapped faults of the South Iceland seismic zone. The hypocentres are relatively deep, mainly at 6–12?km, matching the general trend of hypocentral depth increasing toward the east. The seismicity is highest in the area of the mapped faults. However, the epicentres extend beyond them and indicate greater width of the South Iceland seismic zone, or 20–30?km rather than approximately 10?km as indicated by the length of the surface faults. The seismicity in the volcanic systems of Hekla and Vatnafjöll shows some characteristics of the South Iceland seismic zone. Epicentres are concentrated into two N–S lineaments, one of which coincides with the location of the 1987 Vatnafjöll earthquake (M_w=5.9), a strike-slip event on a N- to S-trending fault. The hypocentres of the Hekla–Vatnafjöll events are mainly at 8–13?km depth, which indicates a continuation of the depth trend of the earthquakes of the South Iceland seismic zone. The events located at Hekla proper and immediately north of it are all of low-frequency character, which can be held as an indication of volcanic origin. On the other hand, they show clear S arrivals at observing stations like normal high-frequency tectonic earthquakes.     

自贡市设定地震的确定

将确定性方法与概率性方法相结合,通过对自贡市地震地质背景、发震断裂及共发震能力、地震活动的时间空布特征、未来５０年地震活动趋势预测、自贡市受破坏性地震的期望震级与期望距离等几个方面的研究,综合确定了２个地震,共结果可以为自贡市人民政论及有关部门制定大震应急预案、建立大震快速反应系统提供依据。     

Tectonic setting of the recent damaging seismic series in the Southeastern Betic Cordillera,Spain

In this work we analyze the tectonic setting of the recent damaging seismic series occurred in the Internal Zones of the eastern Betic Cordillera (SE Spain) and surrounding areas, the tectonic region where took place the 11th May 2011 Mw 5.2 Lorca earthquake. We revisit and make a synthesis of the seven largest and damaging seismic series occurred from 1984 to 2011. We analyze their seismotectonic setting, and their geological sources under the light of recent advances in the knowledge on active faults, neotectonics, seismotectonics and stress regime, with special attention focused on the Lorca Earthquake. These seismic series are characterized by two types of focal mechanisms, produced mainly by two sets of active faults, NNW–SSE to NNE–SSW small (no larger than 20–30 km) extensional faults with some strike slip component, and E–W to NE–SW large strike slip faults (more than 50 km long) with some compressional component (oblique slip faults). The normal fault earthquakes related to the smaller faults are dominant in the interior of large crustal tectonic blocks that are bounded by the large E–W to NE–SW strike-slip faults. The strike slip earthquakes are associated to the reactivation of segments or intersegment regions of the large E–W to NE–SW faults bounding those crustal tectonic blocks. Most of the seismic series studied in this work can be interpreted as part of the background seismicity that occurs within the crustal blocks that are strained under a transpressional regime driven by the major strike slip shear corridors bounding the blocks. The seismotectonic analysis and the phenomenology of the studied series indicate that it is usual the occurrence of damaging compound earthquakes of M  \(\sim \)  5.0 associated with triggering processes driven by coseismic stress transfer. These processes mainly occur in the seismic series generated by NNW–SSE to NNE–SSW faults. These mechanical interaction processes may induce a higher frequency of occurrence of this kind of earthquakes than considered in traditional probabilistic seismic hazard assessments and it should be taken into account in future seismic hazard assessments.     

Research on the Seismotectonic Setting in Beibu Gulf Waters

In this paper we discuss the seismogenic structures of the two earthquakes occurring in the Beibu Gulf waters,based on the investigation of geological structure,faults,geophysical fields,seismicity and earthquake focal mechanism.The results show that the NEE trending faults along the boundary of the Wushi depression are the dominating seismogenic structures,and the NW trending faults are the key factors of stress concentration.The results also show that high seismicity has a significant relationship with the late Cenozoic deposition center in the Beibu Gulf,and their NE-NEE trending boundary faults are important to the identification of seismogenic structures.The special arcuate fault segment or the intersection point of the NW trending faults and NE-NEE trending boundary faults is a possible location of future earthquakes.     

松原市扶余北隐伏活动断裂地震潜势研究

扶余肇东断裂带是松辽盆地中一条重要的隐伏发震断裂带,2006年和2014年在此断裂带上发生了多次近6级地震,地震活动主要集中在断裂的东北段和查干花段。在2012—2014年的松原市活断层探测工作中,探明扶余肇东断裂带东北段经过松原市区,该段呈近EW向,具有明显的分段性和独立性,将其命名为扶余北断裂。通过三维物探资料和浅层人工探测,确定了扶余北断裂的空间展布和剖面特征,并利用联排钻孔探测和光释光测年技术,确定该断裂存在晚更新世以来的活动;利用石油物探资料获得的基岩面破裂规模,对扶余北断裂的地震潜势进行了估计,并进行了概率性地震危险性研究。     

Seismicity patterns before strong earthquakes in Greece

The spatial distribution of the stress field around a fault, before its failure, depends on the focal mechanism of the ensuing rupture. In the preseismic stage, the main fault is locked and background seismicity is distributed in the surrounding area along small faults due to the raise of the stress level. This distribution is well correlated with changes of the stress field, when these are calculated considering the fault slipping on the opposite sense (back-slip model), before the incoming strong event. Studies of the seismicity around faults with known geometry, dimensions and slip properties could contribute in the seismic hazard assessment. In the present work, the spatio-temporal distribution of the smaller magnitude seismic activity before the occurrence of the four most recent (1995–2008) strong (M ≥ 6.4) shallow earthquakes in Greece is compared with the stress pattern necessary for the generation of the strong earthquakes. Studying the annual rate of occurrence it is found that in areas of positive pre-stress changes a sharp increase of the number of earthquakes is observed several years before the occurrence of the main shock. This increase lasts for a few years and then for several years before the main shock the occurrence rate declines but usually remains higher than it was before the sharp increase. Seismicity distribution in the respective areas of negative pre-stress changes shows a rather stable occurrence rate.     

Seismological Evidence of Active Faulting in the Tendaho Rift (Afar Triangle, Ethiopia)

—A temporary network has been used to study the seismic activity in the central-northern part of the Tendaho Rift (Afar Triangle, Ethiopia). Small size earthquakes (M < 2.5) characterize the seismicity during the time interval 1993–1994 when the seismic array was operating. Shocks are mainly located in the central part of the Tendaho rift and their epicentral distribution highlights a remarkable coincidence with NW-SE trending tectonically active structures. Focal depths are confined in the range of 3–8?km. ? The few acceptable fault plane solutions suggest the occurrence of both strike-slip and dip-slip rupture mechanisms, which are often characterized by a nodal plane oriented approximately NW-SE. ?A detailed study of earthquake waveforms using polarization analysis showed the occurrence of splitting phenomena for the S waves. Despite the differences in focal mechanisms, the similarity of the faster S-wave directions (NW-SE to NNW-SSE) suggests that the direction of geological structures and/or the systems of fractures adjacent to the faults could bias shear-wave propagation. The splitting time between fast and slow shear waves shows no systematic relationship with either hypocentral distance or focal depth, suggesting that the anisotropic volume is constrained to depths shallower than 3?km.     

渤海海洋石油平台设定地震反应谱的确定

以渤海海域内已兴建的BZ28-2石油平台为研究对象,综合确定性和概率地震危险性分析方法的优点,通过对渤海海域内地震活动时空分布特征、地震地质背景、发震断裂及其活动性、平台遭受破坏性地震震级与距离的可能组合、设定地震的实际发生概率等几个方面的研究,综合确定了平台不同超越慨率对应的设定地震参数,并基于以上研究结果,给出了B...     

Large Earthquake Hazard of the San Jacinto Fault Zone,CA, from Long Record of Simulated Seismicity Assimilating the Available Instrumental and Paleoseismic Data

We investigate spatio-temporal properties of earthquake patterns in the San Jacinto fault zone (SJFZ), California, between Cajon Pass and the Superstition Hill Fault, using a long record of simulated seismicity constrained by available seismological and geological data. The model provides an effective realization of a large segmented strike-slip fault zone in a 3D elastic half-space, with heterogeneous distribution of static friction chosen to represent several clear step-overs at the surface. The simulated synthetic catalog reproduces well the basic statistical features of the instrumental seismicity recorded at the SJFZ area since 1981. The model also produces events larger than those included in the short instrumental record, consistent with paleo-earthquakes documented at sites along the SJFZ for the last 1,400 years. The general agreement between the synthetic and observed data allows us to address with the long-simulated seismicity questions related to large earthquakes and expected seismic hazard. The interaction between m ≥ 7 events on different sections of the SJFZ is found to be close to random. The hazard associated with m ≥ 7 events on the SJFZ increases significantly if the long record of simulated seismicity is taken into account. The model simulations indicate that the recent increased number of observed intermediate SJFZ earthquakes is a robust statistical feature heralding the occurrence of m ≥ 7 earthquakes. The hypocenters of the m ≥ 5 events in the simulation results move progressively towards the hypocenter of the upcoming m ≥ 7 earthquake.     

岷山断块的发震构造与地震活动性分析

岷山断块位于中国南北强震构造带的中段,区域地质构造复杂,活动断裂众多,强震频发。4条不同走向的活动断裂——NE向龙门山构造带的茂汶断裂、 NWW向东昆仑断裂带的塔藏断裂、近NS向的岷江断裂和NNW—NS向的虎牙断裂构成岷山断块的南北西东边界。638—2017年该区域共发生了10次6级以上破坏性地震, 2017年九寨沟7.0级地震就是其中之一。结合区域构造背景,对岷山断块所发生的6级以上地震的发震构造特征、地震活动特性进行归纳总结,综合分析该区域地震地质特征及地震危险性,得出以下认识:①地震分布空间分区特征显著,破坏性强震发震构造多为活动性较强的岷山断块东西边界断裂,震中位置多位于两组或多组活动断裂构造的交会或穿切部位;②地震分布时间特征表现为随着时间发展具有迁移回返和原地复发性等特点;③岷山断块东西边界断裂破坏性地震的发生具有一定的时间关联性,东边界虎牙断裂1973—2017年的地震序列为西边界岷江断裂1933—1960年地震序列约40年后的地震构造响应;④未来岷山断块仍应是继续关注的强震潜在危险区,岷江断裂中北段的强震潜在危险区是近期值得深入研究的地区之一。