Potential rupture surface model and its application on probabilistic seismic hazard analysis

Potential sources are simplified as point sources or linear sources in current probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) methods. Focus size of large earthquakes is considerable, and fault rupture attitudes may have great influ-ence upon the seismic hazard of a site which is near the source. Under this circumstance, it is unreasonable to use the simplified potential source models in the PSHA, so a potential rupture surface model is proposed in this paper. Adopting this model, we analyze the seismic hazard near the Chelungpu fault that generated the Chi-Chi (Jiji) earthquake with magnitude 7.6 and the following conclusions are reached. 1 This model is reasonable on the base of focal mechanism, especially for sites near potential earthquakes with large magnitude; 2 The attitudes of poten-tial rupture surfaces have great influence on the results of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis and seismic zoning.     

Genetic algorithm in seismic waveform inversion and its application in deep seismic sounding data interpretation

A genetic algorithm of body waveform inversion is presented for better understanding of crustal and upper mantle structures with deep seismic sounding （DSS） waveform data. General reflection and transmission synthetic seismogram algorithm, which is capable of calculating the response of thin alternating high and low velocity layers, is applied as a solution for forward modeling, and the genetic algorithm is used to find the optimal solution of the inverse problem. Numerical tests suggest that the method has the capability of resolving low-velocity layers, thin alternating high and low velocity layers, and noise suppression. Waveform inversion using P-wave records from Zeku, Xiahe and Lintao shots in the seismic wide-angle reflection/refraction survey along northeastern Qinghai-Xizang （Tibeteau） Plateau has revealed fine structures of the bottom of the upper crust and alternating layers in the middle/lower crust and topmost upper mantle.     

On unified analysis of uncertainty in seismic hazard assessment

（胡聿贤，陈汉尧）Ｏｎｕｎｉｆｉｅｄａｎａｌｙｓｉｓｏｆｕｎｃｅｒｔａｉｎｔｙｉｎｓｅｉｓｍｉｃｈａｚａｒｄａｓｓｅｓｓｍｅｎｔ￥Ｙｕ－ＸｉａｎＨＵａｎｄＨａｎ－ＹａｏＣＨＥＮ（ＩｎｓｔｉｔｕｔｅｏｆＧｅｏｐｈｙｓｉｃｓ，ＳｔａｔｅＳｅｉｓｍｏｌｏｇ...     

Tunnel seismic tomography method for geological prediction and its application

Typical existing methods of tunnel geological prediction include negative apparent velocity, horizontal seismic profile, and the Tunnel Seismic Prediction （TSP） method as this technology is under development at home and abroad. Considering simpler observational methods and data processing, it is hard to accurately determine the seismic velocity of the wall rock in the front of the tunnel face. Therefore, applying these defective methods may result in inaccurate geological inferences which will not provide sufficient evidence for classifying the wall rock characteristics. This paper proposes the Tunnel Seismic Tomography （TST） method using a spatial observation arrangement and migration and travel time inversion image processing to solve the problem of analyzing the velocity structure of wall rock in the front of the tunnel face and realize accurate imaging of the geological framework of the tunnel wall rock. This method is very appropriate for geological prediction under complex geological conditions.     

Parameter sensitivity analyses in seismic hazard

Ｐａｒａｍｅｔｅｒｓｅｎｓｉｔｉｖｉｔｙａｎａｌｙｓｅｓｉｎｓｅｉｓｍｉｃｈａｚ┐ａｒｄＪＩＡＮＷＡＮＧ（王健）ａｎｄＭＥＮＧ－ＴＡＮＧＡＯ（高孟潭）ＩｎｓｔｉｔｕｔｅｏｆＧｅｏｐｈｙｓｉｃｓ，ＳｔａｔｅＳｅｉｓｍｏｌｏｇｉｃａｌＢｕｒｅａｕ，Ｂｅ...     

Binomial model on seismic risk analysis

ＢｉｎｏｍｉａｌｍｏｄｅｌｏｎｓｅｉｓｍｉｃｒｉｓｋａｎａｌｙｓｉｓＪｉａｎＷＡＮＧ（王健）ａｎｄＺｈｅｎ－ＬｉａｎｇＳＨＩ（时振梁）（ＩｎｓｔｉｔｕｔｅｏｆＧｅｏｐｈｙｓｉｃｓ，ＳｔａｔｅＳｅｉｓｍｏｌｏｇｉｃａｌＢｕｒｅａｕ，Ｂｅｉｊｉｎｇ１００...     

The numerical method of Fourier eigen transform and its application in seismicity analysis

ＴｈｅｎｕｍｅｒｉｃａｌｍｅｔｈｏｄｏｆＦｏｕｒｉｅｒｅｉｇｅｎｔｒａｎｓｆｏｒｍａｎｄｉｔｓａｐｐｌｉｃａｔｉｏｎｉｎｓｅｉｓｍｉｃｉｔｙａｎａｌｙｓｉｓＢＩＮＧＣＨＥＮ１）（陈兵）ＺＨＩ－ＺＨＥＮＺＨＥＮＧ２）（郑治真）ＺＡＩ－ＳＥＮＪＩＡＮＧ...     

Application of non-stationary Poisson model prediction on seismic belts in northwestern of China

Earthquake probability prediction is based on earthquakes occurred in a certain seismo-tectonic region to predict the probable times and probability of certain magnitude segment earthquake or the earthquake whose mag-nitude is larger than certain magnitude low limit in the coming certain period, this was extensively applied to earthquake risk analysis and earthquake forecast. The main characteristics of the method are that when earthquake statistical model was founded according to the occurred …     

：~orous-grain-upper-boundary model and its application to Tarim Basin carbonates

Most of the carbonates in the Tarim Basin in northwest China are low-porosity and low-permeability rocks. Owing to the complexity of porosity in carbonates, conventional rock- physics models do not describe the relation between velocity and porosity for the Tarim Basin carbonates well. We propose the porous-grain-upper-boundary （PGU） model for estimating the relation between velocity and porosity for low-porosity carbonates. In this model, the carbonate sediments are treated as packed media of porous elastic grains, and the carbonate pores are divided into isolated and connected pores The PGU model is modified from the porous-grain-stiff-sand （PGST） model by replacing the critical porosity with the more practical isolated porosity. In the implementation, the effective elastic constants of the porous grains are calculated by using the differential effective medium （DEM） model. Then, the elastic constants of connected porous grains in dry rocks are calculated by using the modified upper Hashin-Shtrikman bound. The application to the Tarim carbonates shows that relative to other conventional effective medium models the PGU model matches the well log data well.     

Improved seismic hazard model with application to probabilistic seismic demand analysis

An improved seismic hazard model for use in performance‐based earthquake engineering is presented. The model is an improved approximation from the so‐called ‘power law’ model, which is linear in log–log space. The mathematics of the model and uncertainty incorporation is briefly discussed. Various means of fitting the approximation to hazard data derived from probabilistic seismic hazard analysis are discussed, including the limitations of the model. Based on these ‘exact’ hazard data for major centres in New Zealand, the parameters for the proposed model are calibrated. To illustrate the significance of the proposed model, a performance‐based assessment is conducted on a typical bridge, via probabilistic seismic demand analysis. The new hazard model is compared to the current power law relationship to illustrate its effects on the risk assessment. The propagation of epistemic uncertainty in the seismic hazard is also considered. To allow further use of the model in conceptual calculations, a semi‐analytical method is proposed to calculate the demand hazard in closed form. For the case study shown, the resulting semi‐analytical closed form solution is shown to be significantly more accurate than the analytical closed‐form solution using the power law hazard model, capturing the ‘exact’ numerical integration solution to within 7% accuracy over the entire range of exceedance rate. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Copula joint function and its application in probability seismic hazard analysis

A mature mathematical technique called copula joint function is introduced in this paper, which is commonly used in the financial risk analysis to estimate uncertainty. The joint function is generalized to the n-dimensional Frank’s copula. In addition, we adopt two attenuation models proposed by YU and Boore et al, respectively, and construct a two-dimensional copula joint probabilistic function as an example to illustrate the uncertainty treatment at low probability. The results show that copula joint func...     

联结(copula)函数在概率地震危险性分析中的应用

介绍了一种成熟的已广泛应用于金融领域的估计不确定性的方法——copula函数方法, 并推广了n重的Frankrsquo;s copulas; 在实际应用中, 本文采用了俞言祥和美国西部由Boore等人给出的两个衰减模型, 针对其中存在的模型不确定性以及它们之间的相互依赖性, 构造出概率意义上联合的copula分布函数, 并将其应用于实例分析. 结果表明, 对比于传统逻辑树中所用的线性结合方法, copula将两者带来的概率分布写成一个联合概率分布, 能够很好地考虑双方不尽相同的意见. 另外, 由于copula函数可采用各种各样的边际分布函数来获得联合概率分布, 且在金融风险投资评估已有大量的应用, 因此在现代地震危险性评估中将有着广泛的前景.      

双场点地震危险性分析方法及其应用

提出了双场点地震危险性分析方法,用以计算在相同地震构造环境中,相同地震作用下的相邻两个工程场点同时超越其给定地震动参数的概率.该方法是确定系统的危险段落、场点遭受的附加地震危险的有效工具.基于汶川MS8.0地震后大渡河干流及邻近地区的地震环境,以大渡河干流梯级水电站系统为例,确定了大渡河干流梯级水电站各个河段的地震危险性.其中危险性最高的3个河段是:龚嘴—铜街子河段、沙坪—龚嘴河段和大岗山—龙头石河段.     

改进的确定性地震危险性分析方法及其应用

根据改进的基于振型叠加(mode superposition)技术的地震危险性确定性分析方法,结合区域地震活动性、地质构造和地震波传播特点,通过计算理论地震图途径,分别计算了城市周边各个地震对各个场点所造成的最大影响强度(主要以峰值加速度、速度和位移体现),所确定的参数可为结构抗震设计工作提供客观依据.     

Interrelation among strong earthquakes and its application in seismic hazard analysis

The intterrelation among strong earthquakes and its application are emphatically studied in this paper. Taking North China seismic region as study area, we have investigated how a great earthquake influence other strong earthqukaes in neighbouring area? Does there exist earthqukae immunity phenomenon? If it exists, what distributional pattern did it has in space-time domain? The results show that occurrence of earthquakes withM⩾7 has cetain immunity phenomenon to earthquakes withM⩾6 in North China. Among others, the immunity area of earthquakes withM=8 is much larger than that ofM=7. For earthquakes withM⩾8, the immunity area to the earthquakes ofM=7 is larger than toM=6. Based on the above analysis, using some statistical methods, we gave the variational regularity of seismic immunity factor with space and time, and explored its concrete application in seismic hazard analysis. The Chinese version of this paper appeared in the Chinese edition ofActa Seismologica Sinica,15, 339–346, 1993.     

The Grandori model: Anisotropic formulation and its application in the plotting of seismic hazard maps

The seismic hazard for the Calabro-Sicilian area is evaluated using an anisotropic formulation of the Grandori attenuation law. For each macroseismic field two main directions are identified: minimum and maximum attenuation of the macroseismic intensity. The results of the investigation show that the anisotropic formulation improves the compatibility level of the model (with respect to the isotropic one) with the intensities observed and produces probabilistic expected intensities which compare favourably with the values of seismic history in the investigated area when the zonation defined by the Messina University research group was used.     

中国大陆基于BPT模型的时间相依地震危险性分析

概率地震危险性分析是地震区划图编制、重大工程场地地震安全性评估以及地震风险管理等领域的重要依据,地震时间活动性模型则是概率地震危险性分析的主要理论基础.本研究中基于布朗过程时间（Brownian passage time（BPT））模型,计算了不同情况下中国大陆特征地震震源区时间相依的地震发生率,采用概率地震危险性计算方法,选择合适的地震动模型,评估了中国大陆地区时间相依的地震危险性,并与基于泊松模型的地震危险性做了比较.结果表明,时间相依的地震活动特征对概率地震危险性具有显著影响,在那些地震离逝时间相对较长,离逝率较大（大于1）的震源区,时间相依的地震危险性结果相较于基于泊松模型的地震危险性结果显著增大,增大幅度最大可达50%以上.相反,在那些刚发生地震不久,地震离逝时间较短的震源区,时间相依的地震危险性结果相较于泊松模型显著减小,减小幅度最大可达50%左右.地震复发间隔的变异系数对地震危险性结果也有显著影响,选择合适的变异系数对时间相依地震危险性分析十分重要,后续应该加强对地震复发间隔不确定性的研究.研究结果还表明,时间相依的地震活动特征对不同超越概率下的地震危险性结果的影响是一致的,不随超越概率水平的变化而变化.本文研究结果对地震风险管理、地震保险以及相关防震减灾政策的制定等方面具有重要的应用价值.

     

Stochastic renewal model of low-flow streamflow sequences

It is shown that runs of low-flow annual streamflow in a coastal semiarid basin of Central California can be adequately modelled by renewal theory. For example, runs of below-median annual streamflows are shown to follow a geometric distribution. The elapsed time between runs of below-median streamflow are geometrically distributed also. The sum of these two independently distributed geometric time variables defines the renewal time elapsing between the initiation of a low-flow run and the next one. The probability distribution of the renewal time is then derived from first principles, ultimately leading to the distribution of the number of low-flow runs in a specified time period, the expected number of low-flow runs, the risk of drought, and other important probabilistic indicators of low-flow. The authors argue that if one identifies drought threat with the occurrence of multiyear low-flow runs, as it is done by water supply managers in the study area, then our renewal model provides a number of interesting results concerning drought threat in areas historically subject to inclement, dry, climate. A 430-year long annual streamflow time series reconstructed by tree-ring analysis serves as the basis for testing our renewal model of low-flow sequences.