Observation and research on ULF and VLF seismo－electromagnetic radiation

ＯｂｓｅｒｖａｔｉｏｎａｎｄｒｅｓｅａｒｃｈｏｎＵＬＦａｎｄＶＬＦｓｅｉｓｍｏ－ｅｌｅｃｔｒｏｍａｇｎｅｔｉｃｒａｄｉａｔｉｏｎＪＩＡ－ＺＨＩＹＵＡＮ（袁家治）；ＫｏｚｏＴａｋａｈａｓｈｉ；ＳＨＵ－ＱＩＮＧＱＩＡＮ（钱书清），ＹｏｋｉｏＦｕｊｉｎａｗ...     

Velocity structure of the crust and upper mantle in Xingtai earthquake region and its adjacent area

ＶｅｌｏｃｉｔｙｓｔｒｕｃｔｕｒｅｏｆｔｈｅｃｒｕｓｔａｎｄｕｐｐｅｒｍａｎｔｌｅｉｎＸｉｎｇｔａｉｅａｒｔｈｑｕａｋｅｒｅｇｉｏｎ　ａｎｄ　ｉｔｓａｄｊａｃｅｎｔａｒｅａＺｈｉ－ＰｉｎｇＺＨＵ；（祝治平）Ｘｉａｎ－ＫａｎｇＺＨＡＮＧ；（张称康）Ｙｕ...     

Focal mechanism and modern stress field along the Burmese Arc and its vicinity

（李鸿吉，秦建业）ＦｏｃａｌｍｅｃｈａｎｉｓｍａｎｄｍｏｄｅｒｎｓｔｒｅｓｓｆｉｅｌｄａｌｏｎｇｔｈｅＢｕｒｍｅｓｅＡｒｃａｎｄｉｔｓｖｉｃｉｎｉｔｙ￥Ｈｏｎｇ－ＪｉＬＩａｎｄＫｉｎ－ＹｉｐＣＨＥＮ（ＩｎｓｔｉｔｕｔｅｏｆＧｅｏｐｈｙｓｉｃｓ，Ｓｔａ...     

Comparison and analysis of the stress field in the source region of Tangshan and Lancang earthquake sequences

ＣｏｍｐａｒｉｓｏｎａｎｄａｎａｌｙｓｉｓｏｆｔｈｅｓｔｒｅｓｓｆｉｅｌｄｉｎｔｈｅｓｏｕｒｃｅｒｅｇｉｏｎｏｆＴａｎｇｓｈａｎａｎｄＬａｎｃａｎｇｅａｒｔｈｑｕａｋｅｓｅｑｕｅｎｃｅｓＧｕｉ－ＬｉｎｇＤＩＡＯ；（刁桂苓）Ｌｉ－ＭｉｎＹＵ；（于利民）...     

The mutation sequence of earth resistivity and earthquakes

ＴｈｅｍｕｔａｔｉｏｎｓｅｑｕｅｎｃｅｏｆｅａｒｔｈｒｅｓｉｓｔｉｖｉｔｙａｎｄｅａｒｔｈｑｕａｋｅｓＸｉｎ－ＨｅｎｇＬＩＵ（刘心恒）ａｎｄＹｕｎ－ＳｈｅｎｇＺＨＯＵ（周郧生）（ＳｅｉｓｍｏｌｏｇｉｃａｌＢｕｒｅａｕｏｆＹｕｎｎａｎＰｒｏｖｉｎｃｅ，...     

Acceleration record and characteristics of ground motion at an epicentral distance of 200 km

Ａｃｃｅｌｅｒａｔｉｏｎｒｅｃｏｒｄａｎｄｃｈａｒａｃｔｅｒｉｓｔｉｃｓｏｆｇｒｏｕｎｄｍｏｔｉｏｎａｔａｎｅｐｉｃｅｎｔｒａｌｄｉｓｔａｎｃｅｏｆ２００ｋｍＹｕ－ＨｏｎｇＴＩＡＮ（田玉红）ａｎｄＰｅｉ－ＤｅＷＡＮＧ（王培德）（Ｉｎｓｔｉｔｕｔｅｏｆ...     

Mechanical analysis of en echelon structure and its significance of controlling earthquakes

ＭｅｃｈａｎｉｃａｌａｎａｌｙｓｉｓｏｆｅｎｅｃｈｅｌｏｎｓｔｒｕｃｔｕｒｅａｎｄｉｔｓｓｉｇｎｉｆｉｃａｎｃｅｏｆｃｏｎｔｒｏｌｌｉｎｇｅａｒｔｈｑｕａｋｅｓＸｉｎ－ＳｈｅｎｇＸＩＥ（谢新生）ａｎｄＸｉａｏ－ＰｉｎｇＲＵＡＮ（阮小平）（Ｉｎｓｔｉｔ...     

Lyapunov exponent and dimension of the strange attractor of elastic frictional system

ＬｙａｐｕｎｏｖｅｘｐｏｎｅｎｔａｎｄｄｉｍｅｎｓｉｏｎｏｆｔｈｅｓｔｒａｎｅａｔｔｒａｃｔｏｒｏｆｅｌａｓｔｉｃｆｒｉｃｔｉｏｎａｌｓｙｓｔｅｍＺｈｉ－ＲｅｎＮＩＵ（牛志仁）ａｎｄＤａｎｇ－ＭｉｎＣＨＥＮ（陈党民）（ＳｅｉｓｍｏｌｏｇｉｃａｌＢｕｒ...     

Geometrical textures of faults，evolution of physical field and instability characteristics

Ｇｅｏｍｅｔｒｉｃａｌｔｅｘｔｕｒｅｓｏｆｆａｕｌｔｓ，ｅｖｏｌｕｔｉｏｎｏｆｐｈｙｓｉｃａｌｆｉｅｌｄａｎｄｉｎｓｔａｂｉｌｉｔｙｃｈａｒａｃｔｅｒｉｓｔｉｃｓＪＩＮＭＡ（马瑾），ＳＨＥＮＧ－ＬＩＭＡ（马胜利），ＬＩ－ＱＩＡＮＧＬＩＵ（刘力强），Ｚ...     

The relationship between crust-mantle structural ratio and seismic activity

（毛桐恩，姚家榴）Ｔｈｅｒｅｌａｔｉｏｎｓｈｉｐｂｅｔｗｅｅｎｃｒｕｓｔ－ｍａｎｔｌｅｓｔｒｕｃｔｕｒａｌｒａｔｉｏａｎｄｓｅｉｓｍｉｃａｃｔｉｖｉｔｙ￥Ｔｏｎｇ－ＥｎＭＡＯａｎｄＪｉａ－ＬｉｕＹＡＯ（ＩｎｓｔｉｔｕｔｅｏｆＧｅｏｐｈｙｓｉｃｓ，Ｓｔ...     

强震前地震时空相关特征研究

首先,基于强震前地震活动时间变异系数与b值之间具有相关性,对我国四十次6.5级以上强震震例的震前地震活动时空相关特征作讨论。其次,尝试利用相关过程中"第一阶段"的特性来预测未来强震三要素,给出了预测时间、震级的经验公式。最后,对相关过程"第一阶段"判定的可靠性进行了讨论。     

Study on the Criterion of the Correlation between Deformation Precursors and Earthquakes

The relationship between pre-seismic anomalous changes and earthquakes is one of the most basic information to comprehend the process of earthquake preparation and conduct earthquake prediction research. However, few researchers have carried out relevant investigations for a long time. In this paper, the distribution characteristics of deformation anomalies before the Wenchuan earthquake are analyzed, and the widespread distribution area is discussed. Based on previous studies, we improve the relationship between anomaly duration t and magnitude M by introducing distance D. The new model is characterized by lower magnitude fitting error, making it possible to establish the correlation between deformation precursors and earthquakes. The correlation standard between precursors and earthquakes here is defined as Niu''s criterion, which is applied to analyze and interpret the relationship between the short-term anomalies of Hongliuxia fault leveling and the Wenchuan and Jiuzhaigou earthquakes.     

注水诱发地震的研究进展

研究注水诱发地震的特征、发生机理和最大可能震级等对开展诱发地震的预防、危险性评价、减灾策略制定等方面的工作具有重要意义。文章系统地梳理了国内外关于注水诱发地震研究的主要认识和分歧。结果表明：(1)诱发地震的最大可能震级由断层大小和应力状态等地质条件决定,受注水压力和累积注水量等参数的影响;(2)识别诱发地震的可靠方法取决于地震和注水之间的时空相关性,统计模型的参数以及断层活化分析等一系列证据链条;(3)当断层与流体储层之间存在水力连接时,孔隙压力扰动是诱发地震的主要发生机制,反之岩石基质体积变形引起的孔隙弹性应力变化主导了诱发地震的过程。此外,注水诱发的稳定滑动传播到断层的孕震部分、流体的化学作用和小地震级联触发效应也可能在注水诱发地震中发挥重要的作用。研究结果将为注水诱发地震机理研究和减轻破坏性诱发地震灾害提供一定的科学参考。     

向荣村ZK46井数字化水位特征分析

利用海口向荣村ZK46井多年水位观测资料,总结井水位正常动态变化规律、典型干扰因素及同震响应特征。结果表明：① ZK46井水位具有明显年变规律,受海潮、固体潮和气压潮复合影响;②井水位观测所受干扰主要为人为干扰,其次为观测系统和自然环境干扰,且各种干扰的表现形式不同;③对于不同地震,井水位同震响应形态、持续时间和最大震幅等各不相同,主要表现在：在形态上,大地震引起的同震响应为震荡型,中强地震引起的同震响应为固体潮畸变;震荡时间因震级和震中距不同而不同,最长196 min,最短10 min;震级越大,最大震幅越大。     

腾冲地震台观测井水位同震响应特征分析

以2008—2017年腾冲地震台井水位记录的同震响应事件为研究对象,系统分析该井水位的同震响应特征,结合井孔地质背景条件,对同震响应机理进行初步探讨。结果表明:腾冲地震台井水位同震响应能力随着震级增大而逐渐增强;因井震距不同,同震响应主要表现为近震阶降—复原型和远震振荡型变化;同震响应幅度随震级增大而增大,随井震距增大而减小,且水位同震变化受震级与井震距的影响力基本相当;震级越大,同震响应持续时间越长;发生井水位同震响应的地震分布具有明显区位型特点。分析认为,振荡型同震响应机理与面波作用有关,阶降—复原型同震响应机理可能与腾冲地震台观测井所处地质构造有关。     

北京五里营井流体前兆观测到的两次异常及讨论

In this paper, the precursor response characteristics of digital fluid caused by the Wenchuan M8.0 and Yushu M7.1 earthquakes are studied, and the response difference of the observations of Wuliying well to the two strong earthquakes is compared. The result shows that the abnormal fluid response has a certain relationship with earthquake size and epicenter distance. The greater the earthquake, and the closer it is to the epicenter from the observatory, the more sensitive the response will be to fluid anomalies. Abnormal Helium release was first observed before both strong earthquakes in the fluid precursor observation. The release intensity is related to earthquake magnitude; the larger the magnitude, the stronger the abnormal changes. The large change in He release in a short period after the Wenchuan earthquake may be related to the continuous activity of strong aftershocks and the structural adjustment after the earthquake. Helium release increased significantly after both earthquakes, as contributed by the abnormal deep-sited Helium release. However, this process may be connected to the annual change from July to September or the hot-reservoir type gas release in the Wuliying well. In the earthquake preparation process, a large number of deep-derived Helium is released into the geothermal system and the entire composition is changed. Temporally, this gas release appears later than fault-type gas release, and the disappearance time of this anomaly is also much later. The response difference of the fluid precursor to the two strong earthquakes may be related to differences of deep structural setting and dynamic mechanism. It also shows there is a stronger correlation between Wenchuan M8.0 earthquake in the North-South Seismic Belt and North China region than the Yushu M7.1 earthquake in the internal Qinghai-Tibetan plateau. Helium gas can be a sensitive indicator for monitoring abnormal deep-gas activity of the region where the observation station is located. Hence, observation and research should be strengthened in the future.     

新疆北天山非弹性衰减、场地响应及其震源参数研究

本文利用新疆北天山22个数字地震台的地震波形资料,首先采用Atkinson方法得到了北天山Q值随频率f的关系式为Q(f)=465.2f^0.53; 其次采用Moya方法反演得到了22个台站的场地响应,结果显示,绝大多数台站的场地响应在1附近,其中5个台站的场地响应表现出不同程度的放大效应,可能与台基岩性和仪器工作状态有关; 最后用ω平方震源模型计算了161次地震的震源参数,结果表明,在单对数坐标下,161次地震震级(M_S)与地震矩的对数、震源破裂半径、矩震级呈正相关关系、与拐角频率呈负相关关系、与应力降并无明显的依存关系,进而利用震源参数中的应力降时序图,分析了研究区内2次6级地震前后应力降随时间的变化特征: 表现为震前出现高应力异常,震后趋于低值的变化过程。     

中国海域及邻区地震时间分布特征研究

地震时间分布特征研究是进行地震预测和地震危险性分析的重要基础.以中国海域统一地震目录为基础资料,以指数分布模型、伽马分布模型、威布尔分布模型、对数正态分布模型以及布朗过程时间分布(BPT)模型为目标模型,采用极大似然法估算模型参数.根据赤池信息准则(AIC)、贝叶斯信息准则(BIC)以及K-S检验结果确定能够描述海域地...     

运用细胞自动机模型模拟强震前地震活动时间演化过程

强震发生前震源及其周围地区可能会出现前震活动, 这种前震活动可以分为二种: 一种为连续型, 即前震的频度或震级随时间渐渐增大, 直至主震发生; 另一种为不连续型, 前震的频度和震级先增大后减小, 然后发震。 这种现象不但在破裂声发射试验中观测到, 也在中国大陆地区多次强震前被观测到。 文中基于细胞自动机模型, 引入时间-状态依从摩擦本构关系, 即把自组织非线性系统的普适特征与真实断层摩擦的具体特征结合起来, 研究了强震前短期前兆地震活动的时间演化过程的机理。 文中研究了模型中各参数对模拟事件时间过程的影响, 结果表明, 静摩擦强度在断层上的分布, 或是说静摩擦系数的离散程度直接影响强震前地震活动时间演化过程。     

未震空区与卸载地震

近年来,地震预报的地震学方法清理结果表明,利用地震空区预报未来强震有一定的效果,但是虚报率较高。作者研究发现,在一些没有发生地震的孕震空区周围,发生了某种“卸载地震”,以至终止了空区的孕震过程。文中总结了某些卸载地震的特点和利用对卸载地震的识别从而减少虚报的效果。卸载地震的作用有可能对其它无震前兆异常提供解释。