异常气候对苹果优质生产的影响及对策

红富士苹果优质是当前果树生产的重要研究项目之一。通过近年来对山西吉县异常天气的分析调查及对苹果生产的影响，提出了相应的生产管理措施，对红富士苹果优质生产具有一定的指导意义。     

An ethical approach to climate adaptation finance

This article develops a framework of procedural and distributive justice specifically tailored to the international-level funding of adaptation based on the assumptions that the ethical contents of such funding should consist of a fair process which involves all relevant parties, that adaptation funds should be raised according to the responsibility for climate impacts, and that the funds raised should be allocated by putting the most vulnerable first. In particular, after underlining the usefulness and possibilities of an ethical approach to climate adaptation finance, the article, in defining the framework of justice, first explores and justifies principles of procedural and distributive justice, and on their basis advances fairness and equity criteria that serve as benchmarks for assessing the ethical contents of international adaptation funding. Then, in order to test the robustness and investigative potential of the framework of justice developed, the article uses its fairness and equity criteria to evaluate the procedural and distributive justness of some climate adaptation finance architectures.     

The political sustainability of climate policy: The case of the UK Climate Change Act

This paper assesses the forces working for and against the political sustainability of the UK 2008 Climate Change Act. The adoption of the Act is seen as a landmark commitment to action on climate change, but its implementation has not been studied in any depth. Recent events, including disagreements over the fourth carbon budget and the decarbonisation of the electricity sector, shows that while the Act might appear to lock in a commitment to reducing emissions through legal means, this does not guarantee political lock-in. The assumption, made by some proponents of the Act, that accountability of political leaders to a public concerned about climate change, via Parliament, would provide the main political underpinning to the Act is criticised. An analysis of alternative sources of political durability is presented, drawing on a framework for understanding the sustainability of reform developed by Patashnik. It is argued that the Act has helped create major institutional transformations, although the degree to which new institutions have displaced the power of existing ones is limited. The Act has produced some policy feedback effects, especially in the business community, and some limited investment effects, but both have been insufficient to withstand destabilisation by recent party political conflicts. The Climate Change Act remains at risk.     

An approach to adaptation to climate changes in Poland

Adopted by COP 10 (Dec 1/CP.10) and approved by the MOP1, the Buenos Aires programme of adaptation and response measures opens doors to intensify preparations for expected climate change. By this decision the COP, requested the SBSTA to develop a structured 5-year programme of work of the SBSTA on the scientific, technical and socio-economic aspects of impacts of, and vulnerability and adaptation to, climate change. Consequently, the COP, by its decision 2/CP.11, adopted the “Five-year programme of work of the Subsidiary Body for Scientific and Technological Advice on impacts, vulnerability and adaptation to climate change” Finally during COP12 this programme was approved as “Nairobi Work Programme on impacts, vulnerability and adaptation to climate change”. This programme has fundamental significance not only for developing countries, but also for industrialized nations in which some sectors of the or social life are particularly vulnerable to climate change, specifically, inter alia EIT countries and new EU Member States. Further development of this adaptation programme economy should contain steps that provide optimum economic and social effectiveness, risk management, identification of vulnerable sectors and gaps in knowledge, preparation of a list of policy options, including an analysis of cost effectiveness, selection of the most effective policies, and a preparedness implementation plan. In Poland the preliminary adaptation programme covered agriculture, water management, and coastal zone management. For the time being, gaps in knowledge and preparedness measures have been identified. An estimation of possible impact on these areas was based on chosen GCMs, and sea level rise IPCC scenarios. In conclusion, it was stated that the results achieved should be seen as a first step forward and a more comprehensive study is necessary to update the results and cover other sectors of the economy, such as health protection, spatial planning, ecosystems and forestry, and to develop specific guidelines and recommendations for policy-makers.     

Sector-based approach to the post-2012 climate change policy architecture

A sectoral approach to GHG emissions reductions in developing countries is proposed as a key component of the post-2012 climate change mitigation framework. In this approach, the ten highest-emitting developing countries in the electricity and other major industrial sectors pledge to meet voluntary, ‘no-lose’ GHG emissions targets in these sectors. No penalties are incurred for failing to meet a target, but emissions reductions achieved beyond the target level earn emissions reduction credits (ERCs) that can be sold to industrialized nations. Participating developing countries establish initial ‘no-lose’ emissions targets, based upon their national circumstances, from sector-specific energyintensity benchmarks that have been developed by independent experts. Industrialized nations then offer incentives for the developing countries to adopt more stringent emissions targets through a ‘Technology Finance and Assistance Package’, which helps to overcome financial and other barriers to technology transfer and deployment. These sectorspecific energy-intensity benchmarks could also serve as a means for establishing national economy-wide targets in developed countries in the post-2012 regime. Preliminary modelling of a hybrid scenario, in which Annex I countries adopt economy-wide absolute GHG emissions targets and high-emitting developing countries adopt ‘no-lose’ sectoral targets, indicates that such an approach significantly improves the likelihood that atmospheric concentrations of CO₂ can be stabilized at 450 ppmv by the end of the century.     

The discourses of climate change science: Scientific reporting,climate negotiations and the case of Papua New Guinea

This paper analyses climate science as a discourse to reveal how it enables and constrains climate change negotiations and action. Focusing on long-term outcomes projected in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s Fifth Assessment Report and the World Bank’s “Turn Down the Heat” reports, this paper examines processes of discourse structuration and institutionalization to identify the dominant discourses which frame climate action. We trace the dominant discourses identified in the scientific reports – Survivalism, Ecological Modernisation and Economic Rationalism – through the Paris Agreement and selected Leader Statements and Intended Nationally Determined Contributions from COP21. From the 24 states included in this analysis, Papua New Guinea (PNG) is developed as a case study to investigate the hybridity and institutionalization of discourses. Even though PNG’s rhetoric and commitments at COP21 express Survivalism, the state’s policy frameworks rarely move beyond solutions found in Economic Rationalism and Ecological Modernisation. This suggests that states strategically adopt hybrid discourses drawn from climate science in line with their positionality, political economy and interests. Understanding how discourses drawn from climate science manifest in national policies has significant implications not only for how science is communicated at the international level but also for understanding different state positions in the global climate governance regime.     

The resilience of annual vegetation primary production subjected to different climate change scenarios

We examined if climate change in two dry ecosystems—Mediterranean (DME) and Semiarid (SAE)—would cause substantial reduction in the production of annual vegetation. Field measurements and computer simulations were used to examine the following six climate change scenarios: (1) rainfall amount reduction; (2) increases of 10 % in annual evaporation rate and 5 % in annual temperature; (3) increase in magnitude of rainfall events, accompanied by reductions in frequency and seasonal variation; (4) postponement of the beginning of the first rainfall event of the growing season; (5) long dry spells during the growing season; and (6) early ending of the growing season. The results revealed the following outcomes. a) Reduction by 5–35 % in annual rainfall amount did not significantly affect productivity in the DME, but a large (25–35 %) decrease in rainfall would change vegetation productivity in the SAE and lead to a patchier environment. b) Similar results were observed: when temperature and evaporation rate were increased; when the magnitude of rainfall events increased but their frequency decreased; and during a long mid-season dry spell. c) In both ecosystems, changes in the temporal distribution of rainfall, especially at the beginning of the season, caused the largest reduction in productivity, accompanied by increased patchiness. d) Long-term data gathered during the last three decades indicated that both environments exhibited high resilience of productivity under rainfall variability. These results imply that the response of dry ecosystems to climate change is not characterized by a dramatic decrease in productivity. Moreover, these ecosystems are more resilient than expected, and their herbaceous productivity might undergo drastic changes only under more severe scenarios than those currently predicted in the literature.     

Russian industry responses to climate change: the case of the metals and mining sector

Globally, the metals and mining sector is a major contributor to GHG emissions. Climate change also poses significant challenges for the industry in a number of ways, including risks to infrastructure and equipment, transport routes and the cost of energy supplies. The sector is of particular importance to Russia, and yet very little is known about how the sector positions itself in relation to this key issue. This article conducts an in-depth look at the response of the Russian metals and mining sector to climate change. It looks at the key actors, their willingness to engage with the issue of climate change, preferred policy options and the strategies adopted to further their interests. The role of companies, prominent individuals and business associations is considered. The evidence suggests that, although there is widespread acceptance of climate change as a phenomenon, there is significant variation within the sector, with some companies proactive on climate policy, and others more reluctant. Different responses are attributed to reputational factors and the disproportionate influence of international and domestic policy developments on companies. Russian coal companies, directly threatened by any international attempts to reduce coal consumption, display the strongest opposition to efforts aimed at curbing emissions. The Russian government, far from thinking of transitioning to a low carbon future, is vigorously trying to expand the coal industry.

Key policy insights

• Understanding how Russia’s domestic position on climate policy is formed is fundamental for understanding the factors driving its international engagement on climate policy.

• The Russian government has no plans to phase out coal and is instead actively seeking to expand the coal industry. This highlights the obstacles to Russia’s commitment to climate policy at both the domestic and international levels.

• The socio-economic consequences of climate policy for the Russian coal industry are a key consideration for the government, with some regions heavily dependent on the industry for employment and electricity generation.

     

Economic and distributional impacts of climate change: The case of Ethiopia

Climate change is likely to harm developing economies that generate major portion of their GDP from climate sensitive sectors. This paper computes economy-wide impact of climate change and its distributional consequence with the help of a sector wise disaggregated general equilibrium model using Ethiopia as a case. The projected climate shock reduces output in the sector with the strongest forward and backward linkage to the rest of the economy and redistributes income by changing the returns to inputs owned by various agents. The results suggest that climate change will make the prospect of economic development harder in at least two ways: first, by reducing agricultural production and output in the sectors linked to the agricultural sector, which is likely to reduce Ethiopia's GDP by about 10% from its benchmark level; and second, by raising the degree of income inequality in which the Gini-coefficient increases by 20%, which is likely to further decrease economic growth and fuel poverty. Thus, climate change is expected to increase the fraction of people in poverty by reducing the size of the total pie and redistributing it more unevenly.     

A co-evolutionary approach to climate change impact assessment: Part I. Integrating socio-economic and climate change scenarios

Climate change policies currently pay disproportionately greater attention to the mitigation of climate change through emission reductions strategies than to adaptation measures. Realising that the world is already committed to some global warming, policy makers are beginning to turn their attention to the challenge of preparing society to adapt to the unfolding impacts at the local level. This two-part article presents an integrated, or `co-evolutionary', approach to using scenarios in adaptation and vulnerability assessment. Part I explains how climate and social scenarios can be integrated to better understand the inter-relationships between a changing climate and the dynamic evolution of social, economic and political systems. The integrated scenarios are then calibrated so that they can be applied `bottom up’ to local stakeholders in vulnerable sectors of the economy. Part I concludes that a co-evolutionary approach (1) produces a more sophisticated and dynamic account of the potential feedbacks between natural and human systems; (2) suggests that sustainability indicators are both a potentially valuable input to and an output of integrated scenario formulation and application. Part II describes how a broadly representative sample of public, private and voluntary organisations in the East Anglian region of the UK responded to the scenarios, and identifies future research priorities.     

Interdisciplinary research and integration: The case of CO2 and climate

The possibility that increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations may lead to significant climate changes poses a problem of unusual breath and complexity to society. Research on this problem, and on ways society can respond to it, needs to be carefully organized and managed in an interdisciplinary and flexible manner. New means of integrating research results and ensuring their usefulness for policy decisions must be explored. Research on the CO₂ problem should also be closely ‘tied-in’ with research on other social and environmental issues. The views expressed in this paper are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the views of the Climate Board or the National Academy of Sciences.     

Regime interplay: the case of biodiversity and climate change

In this paper, the interplay between the biodiversity and climate change regimes is examined in the context of a case study. An understanding of how the regimes interact is crucial to their successful operation, since it provides insight into how policy options might be drawn up to create synergy rather than conflict among the respective regimes’ objectives. Despite the increasing importance of the study of regime interplay, due to its potential influence on regime effectiveness, there is limited understanding of why regimes interact and how their interplay may affect their successful operation, since few empirical studies have been conducted in this area. By analysing the causes of the regime interplay and the potential effects thereof, this paper draws policy implications regarding how the interacting regimes might be better co-ordinated to create synergy.     

The impact of weather and climate on tourist demand: the case of Chester Zoo

Warmer, drier summer weather brought by global climate change should encourage use of outdoor leisure facilities. Yet few studies assess the effect of current weather and climate conditions upon visits to leisure attractions. Statistical time series models are used to analyse the short-run impact of weather and the long-run impact of climate upon visits to Chester Zoo, England. Temperature has a non-linear effect on visit levels. Daily visits rise with temperature up to a threshold around 21 °C. Thereafter visitor numbers drop on hot days. Visits are redistributed over time in accordance with the weather. Visitors discouraged by rainy weather one day turn up later when the weather improves. Otherwise, visitor behaviour is mainly influenced by the annual rhythm of the year and the pattern of public and school holidays. Out-of-sample tests suggest almost 70 % of the variation in visit levels can be explained by the combination of weather and time of year. Climate change is likely to redistribute visitors across the year. But it does not follow that “summer” visitor behaviour will transfer to spring and autumn. Day length, existing patterns of human activity and availability of leisure time constrain visit levels regardless of better weather. The main implication of potential climate change is the need for physical adaptation of the tourist environment as temperatures rise and rainfall diminishes in summer.     

An approach to modeling climate based on feedback relationships

Feedback occurs between many components of the climate system, and makes the study of climate very difficult. A modeling approach is presented in which feedbacks are represented specifically. Analysis of very simple models shows how feedback between two components affects their behavior; positive feedback increases persistence, and can produce climatic changes even without changes in external forcing. In any quantitative study, the magnitudes of all relevant feedbacks must be known accurately. As an example, it is shown how the effect of CO₂ on global temperature must depend greatly on the feedback between global temperature and ice extent.     

Opening space for equity and justice in resilience: A subjective approach to household resilience assessment

While resilience has grown to become a well-established goal of policy and practice, assessing resilience remains an outstanding problem. To date, measurement has largely relied on the identification of proxy indicators, inevitably shaping what is measured in ways that reflect underlying assumptions, generalisations and approximations, and raising the question of whose values are being embedded into resilience. These concerns reflect recent interest in the role of recognition justice in resilience, and in particular how marginalisation from meaning-making processes creates the conditions for the inequitable distribution of outcomes in practice. Here, we propose a two stage, subjective approach to resilience assessment, starting with rapid household interviews that invite participants to assess the likely impact of multiple shock and stressor storylines. In a second step, participatory qualitative methods are employed to support inductive investigation of resilience focused on the factors that differentiate those reporting relatively high and low resilience. We illustrate this using fieldwork data from 569 households in Bangladesh. This subjective approach enables households to engage in the production of knowledge about their resilience, revealing two core features of situated heterogeneity: the forms of difference, and the underlying causes. Underlying causes arise from interactions and feedbacks between social, political, economic and institutional conditions that are highly context specific, while significant forms of difference include intra-community and scalar heterogeneity; vulnerability to specific or generalised shocks; and the role of undesirable practices in securing resilience. The results underline the need for resilience to be assessed in relation to local understandings of precarity, and through the expression of senses of justice that inform local conceptions of wellbeing. This means moving beyond positivist approaches and placing epistemic diversity at the centre of resilience assessment, enabling the production of a situated understanding of how and why resilience is differentiated, and offering an analytical starting point from which policy and practice can drive towards equitable resilience.