Spatial and temporal variability of precipitation indices during 1961–2010 in Hunan Province,central south China

Based on daily precipitation records at 75 meteorological stations in Hunan Province, central south China, the spatial and temporal variability of precipitation indices is analyzed during 1961–2010. For precipitation extremes, most of precipitation indices suggest that both the amount and the intensity of extreme precipitation are increasing, especially the mean precipitation amount on a wet day, showing a significant positive trend. Meanwhile, both of the monthly rainfall heterogeneity and the contribution of the days with the greatest rainfall show an upward trend. When it comes to rainfall erosivity, most of this province is characterized by high values of annual rainfall erosivity. Although the directions of trends in annual rainfall erosivity at most stations are upward, only 6 of the 75 stations have significant trends. Furthermore, the spatial and temporal variation of dryness/wetness has been assessed by the standardized precipitation index (SPI). The principal component analysis (PCA) was applied to the SPI series computed on 24-month time scales. The results demonstrated a noticeable spatial variability with three subregions characterized by different trends: a remarkable wet tendency prevails in the central and southern areas, while the northern areas are dominated by a remarkable dry tendency.     

Spatiotemporal variations of potential evapotranspiration and aridity index in relation to influencing factors over Southwest China during 1960–2013

This study investigated the spatial–temporal patterns and trends of potential evapotranspiration (ET₀) and aridity index (AI) over Southwest China during 1960–2013 based on daily temperature, precipitation, wind speed, sunshine duration, total solar radiation, and relative humidity data from 108 meteorological stations. The Penman–Monteith model, Mann–Kendall (M–K) test, moving t test, and Morlet wavelet method were used. The results indicated that ET₀ and AI across the region displayed decreasing trends, but the former was significant. After 2000, regionally average trends in ET₀ and AI increased rapidly, indicating that droughts increased over Southwest China in recent years. Spatially, the changes of ET₀ and AI were dissimilar and not clustered, either. Temporally, both ET₀ and AI displayed obvious abrupt change points over different timescales and that of AI was during the winter monsoon period. Significant periodic variations with periods of 27, 13, and 5 years were found in ET₀, but only of 13 and 5 years existed in AI. Correlation analysis revealed that the sunshine duration and wind speed were the dominant factors affecting ET₀ and that AI showed strong negative correlation with precipitation. The findings of this study enhance the understanding of the relationship between climate change and drought in Southwest China, while the mechanism controlling the variation in drought requires further study.     

Spatiotemporal variations in rainfall erosivity during the period of 1960–2011 in Guangdong Province,southern China

Rainfall erosivity, which shows a potential risk of soil loss caused by water erosion, is an important factor in soil erosion process. In consideration of the critical condition of soil erosion induced by rainfall in Guangdong Province of southern China, this study analyzed the spatial and temporal variations in rainfall erosivity based on daily rainfall data observed at 25 meteorological stations during the period of 1960–2011. The methods of global spatial autocorrelation, kriging interpolation, Mann–Kendall test, and continuous wavelet transform were used. Results revealed that the annual rainfall erosivity in Guangdong Province, which spatially varied with the maximum level observed in June, was classified as high erosivity with two peaks that occur in spring and summer. In the direction of south–north, mean annual rainfall erosivity, which showed significant relationships with mean annual rainfall and latitude, gradually decreased with the high values mainly distributed in the coastal area and the low values mainly occurring in the lowlands of northwestern Guangdong. Meanwhile, a significant positive spatial autocorrelation which implied a clustered pattern was observed for annual rainfall erosivity. The spatial distribution of seasonal rainfall erosivity exhibited clustering tendencies, except spring erosivity with Moran’s I and Z values of 0.1 and 1.04, respectively. The spatial distribution of monthly rainfall erosivity presented clustered patterns in January–March and July–October as well as random patterns in the remaining months. The temporal trend of mean rainfall erosivity in Guangdong Province showed no statistically significant trend at the annual, seasonal, and monthly scales. However, at each station, 1 out of 25 stations exhibited a statistically significant trend at the annual scale; 4 stations located around the Pearl River Delta presented significant trends in summer at the seasonal scale; significant trends were observed in March (increasing trends at 3 stations), June (increasing trends at 4 stations located in the Beijiang River Basin), and October (decreasing trends at 4 stations) at the monthly scale. In accordance with the mean annual rainfall over Guangdong Province, the mean annual rainfall erosivity showed two significant periodicities of 3–6 and 10–12 years at a confidence level of 95 %. In conclusion, the results of this study provide insights into the spatiotemporal variation in rainfall erosivity in Guangdong Province and support for agrolandscape planning and water and soil conservation efforts in this region.     

Spatiotemporal change in the climatic growing season in Northeast China during 1960–2009

Daily mean air temperatures from 81 meteorological stations in Northeast China were analyzed for the spatiotemporal change of the climatic growing season during the period 1960–2009. Our results showed that latitude strongly influenced the spatial patterns of the mean start (GSS), end (GSE), and length (GSL) of the growing season. For the area studied, a significant increasing trend in GSL during 1960–2009 was detected at a significance level of 0.01, especially after the early 1980s. The area-average GSL has extended 13.3 days during the last 50 years, mainly due to the advanced GSS evident in the spring (7.9 days). The variations of GSS and GSE were closely correlated with the monthly mean temperature (T _mean) of April and October, respectively, while GSL was closely related to the monthly minimum temperatures (T _min) of spring (March to April) and autumn (September to October). The distributions of the trends in growing season parameters (GSS, GSE, and GSL) showed great spatial variability over Northeast China. Significant relationships between altitude and the trend rates of the GSS and GSL were detected, while geographic parameters had little direct effect on the change in GSE. This extended growing season may provide favorable conditions for agriculture and forest, and improve their potential production.     

Spatiotemporal change in China’s climatic growing season: 1955–2000

The timing, length, and thermal intensity of the climatic growing season in China show statistically significant changes over the period of 1955 to 2000. Nationally, the average start of the growing season has shifted 4.6–5.5 days earlier while the average end has moved 1.8–3.7 days later, increasing the length of the growing season by 6.9–8.7 days depending on the base temperature chosen. The thermal intensity of the growing season has increased by 74.9–196.8 growing degree-days, depending on the base temperature selected. The spatial characteristics of the change in the timing and length of the growing season differ from the geographical pattern of change in temperatures over this period; but the spatial characteristics of change in growing degree-days does resemble the pattern for temperatures, with higher rates in northern regions. Nationally, two distinct regimes are evident over time: an initial period where growing season indicators fluctuate near a base period average, and a second period of rapidly increasing growing season length and thermal intensity. Growing degree-days are highly correlated with March-to-November mean air temperatures in all climatic regions of China; the length of the growing season is likewise highly correlated with March-to-November mean air temperatures except in east, southeast and southwest China at base temperature of 0°C and southeast China at base temperature of 5°C. The growing season start date appears to have the greater influence on the length of the growing season. In China, warmer growing seasons are also likely to be longer growing seasons.     

Spatiotemporal Variability of Surface Wind Speed during 1961–2017 in the Jing–Jin–Ji Region,China

Wind speed variations are influenced by both natural climate and human activities. It is important to understand the spatial and temporal distributions of wind speed and to analyze the cause of its changes. In this study, data from 26 meteorological stations in the Jing–Jin–Ji region of North China from 1961 to 2017 are analyzed by using the Mann–Kendall(MK) test. Over the study period, wind speed first decreased by-0.028 m s-1 yr-1(p 0.01) in1961–1991, and then increased by 0.002 m s1-yr1-(p 0.05) in 1992–2017. Wind speed was the highest in spring(2.98 m s-1), followed by winter, summer, and autumn. The largest wind speed changes for 1961–1991 and1992–2017 occurred in winter(-0.0392 and 0.0065 m s-1 yr1-, respectively); these values represented 36% and 58%of the annual wind speed changes. More than 90.4% of the wind speed was concentrated in the range of 1–5 m s-1,according to the variation in the number of days with wind speed of different grades. Specifically, the decrease in wind speed in 1961–1991 was due to the decrease in days with wind speed of 3–5 m s-1, while the increase in wind speed in 1992–2017 was mainly due to the increase in days with wind speed of 2–4 m s-1. In terms of driving factors,variations in wind speed were closely correlated with temperature and atmospheric pressure, whereas elevation and underlying surface also influenced these changes.     

Spatial and temporal variability of precipitation in Serbia for the period 1961–2010

Monthly, seasonal and annual sums of precipitation in Serbia were analysed in this paper for the period 1961–2010. Latitude, longitude and altitude of 421 precipitation stations and terrain features in their close environment (slope and aspect of terrain within a radius of 10 km around the station) were used to develop a regression model on which spatial distribution of precipitation was calculated. The spatial distribution of annual, June (maximum values for almost all of the stations) and February (minimum values for almost all of the stations) precipitation is presented. Annual precipitation amounts ranged from 500 to 600 mm to over 1100 mm. June precipitation ranged from 60 to 140 mm and February precipitation from 30 to 100 mm. The validation results expressed as root mean square error (RMSE) for monthly sums ranged from 3.9 mm in October (7.5% of the average precipitation for this month) to 6.2 mm in April (10.4%). For seasonal sums, RMSE ranged from 10.4 mm during autumn (6.1% of the average precipitation for this season) to 20.5 mm during winter (13.4%). On the annual scale, RMSE was 68 mm (9.5% of the average amount of precipitation). We further analysed precipitation trends using Sen’s estimation, while the Mann-Kendall test was used for testing the statistical significance of the trends. For most parts of Serbia, the mean annual precipitation trends fell between −5 and +5 and +5 and +15 mm/decade. June precipitation trends were mainly between −8 and +8 mm/decade. February precipitation trends generally ranged from −3 to +3 mm/decade.

     

Solar dimming and its impact on estimating solar radiation from diurnal temperature range in China, 1961–2007

The relationship of prolonged dry spells in Eastern Mediterranean with large-scale surface and upper circulation is investigated on seasonal basis with the aid of the Singular-Value Decomposition Analysis (SVDA) for the period 1958–2000. The study was based on daily precipitation data of 56 stations, evenly distributed over Eastern Mediterranean region. Extreme dry spells are defined using the CDD index (maximum number of consecutive dry days). It was found that teleconnection patterns centered over Northern Atlantic and northern Europe seem to affect the duration of the longest dry spells over the Eastern Mediterranean, while surface synoptic scale systems in Northern Africa play a substantial role. The SVDA results compare well with the corresponding results of Canonical Correlation Analysis (CCA), mainly for the surface circulation during winter and summer.     

Changes of precipitation pattern in China: 1961–2010

Theoretical and Applied Climatology - Based on the precipitation records of 2474 meteorological stations, this study investigated precipitation characteristics and trends in China from 1961 to...     

Statistical characteristics,trends, and variability of rainfall in Shanxi province,China, during the period 1957–2019

Theoretical and Applied Climatology - Under the background of global warming, an analysis of the trend and variability of rainfall time series on various timescales is very important for...     

Analysis of temperature variability in the mountain regions of the North Caucasus in 1961–2013

Annual and seasonal series of temperature values are analyzed using the data of Akhty, Teberda, and Terskol weather stations (the height above the sea level is >1000 m) for 1961-2013 as well as from 1976 to 2013 in order to reveal changes in the mountain climate in the period of contemporary global warming. Mean values, standard deviations, norms, and anomalies of annual and seasonal values of temperature as well as the rate of their variation in the mentioned periods are obtained. It is found that the temperature rise is observed in all seasons and for the year as a whole at the mountain weather stations except Terskol station. According to the results of studying temperature variability, Akhty and Teberda weather stations were united into the group “mountain weather stations” with the subsequent averaging of climatic variables. Terskol weather station was singled out as an independent high-mountain weather station.     

Trends and periodicity of daily temperature and precipitation extremes during 1960–2013 in Hunan Province,central south China

In this study, the trends and periodicity in climate extremes are examined in Hunan Province over the period 1960–2013 on the basis of 27 extreme climate indices calculated from daily temperature and precipitation records at 89 meteorological stations. The results show that in the whole province, temperature extremes exhibit a warming trend with more than 50% stations being statistically significant for 7 out of 16 temperature indices, and the nighttime temperature increases faster than the daytime temperature at the annual scale. The changes in most extreme temperature indices show strongly coherent spatial patterns. Moreover, the change rates of almost all temperature indices in north Hunan are greater than those of other regions. However, the statistically significant changes in indices of extreme precipitation are observed at fewer stations than in extreme temperature indices, forming less spatially coherent patterns. Positive trends in indices of extreme precipitation show that the amount and intensity of extreme precipitation events are generally increasing in both annual and seasonal scales, whereas the significant downward trend in consecutive wet days indicates that the precipitation becomes more even over the study period. Analysis of changes in probability distributions of extreme indices for 1960–1986 and 1987–2013 also demonstrates a remarkable shift toward warmer condition and increasing tendency in the amount and intensity of extreme precipitation during the past decades. The variations in extreme climate indices exhibit inconstant frequencies in the wavelet power spectrum. Among the 16 temperature indices, 2 of them show significant 1-year periodic oscillation and 7 of them exhibit significant 4-year cycle during some certain periods. However, significant periodic oscillations can be found in all of the precipitation indices. Wet-day precipitation and three absolute precipitation indices show significant 1-year cycle and other seven provide significant power at the 4-year period, which are mainly found during 1970–1980 and after 1992.     

Influence of climatic factors on the low yields of spring barley and winter wheat in Southern Moravia (Czech Republic) during the 1961–2007 period

The paper aims to study the variability of spring barley and winter wheat yields, the most important crops in the Czech Republic, with respect to the variability of weather and climatic factors. Yields of both crops have been studied for 13 districts in Southern Moravia for the 1961–2007 period. From detrended series of spring barley and winter wheat yields, years with very low (lower than the mean minus a 2.5-multiple of the standard deviation) and extremely low (interval given by the mean minus a 1.5- and 2.5-multiple of the standard deviation) yields were selected. Years in which at least one of the districts had extremely low/very low yields were further analyzed. From 10 such years selected separately for spring barley and winter wheat, six of them agreed for both crops. Extreme years were studied using NUTS4-level yield data with respect to temperature, precipitation, the self-calibrated Palmer Drought Severity Index (scPDSI), snow cover, frost patterns, and the onset and duration of select phenophases. Extremely/very low barley yields in 1993, 2000, and 2007 were related to high April–June (AMJ) temperatures, low AMJ precipitation totals, and negative AMJ scPDSI (indicating drought) with an earlier onset of flowering and full ripeness and shorter intervals from tillering to flowering and from flowering to full ripeness compared to the entire 1961–2007 mean. As for extremely/very low winter wheat yields, in addition to the previously mentioned factors, winter patterns also played an important role, particularly the occurrence of severe frosts with a coinciding lack of snow cover and a long-lasting snow cover (in highlands), indicating that low yields are the result of not only one unfavorable factor but a combination of several of them.     

Interannual and decadal variability of the subsurface thermal structure in the Pacific Ocean: 1961–90

Heat content anomalies are analyzed to understand subsurface variability on both aparticular focus on the evolving basinwide patterns and oceanic connections between the extratropics and tropics. Various analyses indicate two distinct modes, one interannual and the other decadal, that involve the tropics and the North Pacific subtropical gyre, respectively. Interannual variability is associated with El Niño in the tropics, with a prominent “see-saw” pattern alternately on and off the equator, and in the east and west, respectively. The interannual cycle features a coherent propagation of subsurface signals around the tropical Pacific, eastward along the equator but westward off the equator at 10–15?°N. Decadal signals are dominant in the subtropics and midlatitudes but also have a tropical component that appears to be independent of interannual variations. An oceanic connection can be seen between subsurface anomalies in the midlatitudes, in the subtropics and tropics on decadal time scales. Subsurface thermal anomalies associated with midlatitude decadal variability can propagate through the subtropics into the tropics, which may modulate the intensity of interannual variability in the tropics. For example, in the middle and late 1970s, a significant warm temperature anomaly appeared to penetrate into the western and central tropics at depth, warming the tropical upper ocean and depressing the thermocline. During the development of El Niño, therefore, an extratropically preconditioned subsurface state (e.g., an enhanced positive heat content anomaly) in the western and central tropical Pacific would favor a warmer sea surface temperature anomaly in the eastern equatorial Pacific, potentially increasing the intensity of ocean-atmosphere coupling. These changes in the thermocline structure and possibly in the coupling strength can further alter the very character of tropical air-sea interactions. This may help to explain decadal variability of El Niño evolution in the tropical Pacific as observed in the 1980s. Our subsurface variability analysis presents observational evidence for the detailed space-time structure of decadal oceanic links between the extratropics and the tropics.     

Characteristics of extreme daily minimum and maximum temperature over Northeast China, 1961–2009

In this study, the multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis method is employed to determine the thresholds of extreme events. Subsequently, the characteristics of extreme temperatures have been analyzed over Northeast China during 1961–2009. Approximately 58 % of stations have negative interdecadal trends of ?2.2 days/10 years to 0 days/10 years in extreme low minimum temperature (ELMT) frequency. Notable positive trend of 0–2.5 days/10 years in extreme high maximum temperature (EHMT) frequency of about 94 % stations are found. Approximately 58 % of stations have decreasing trend in ELMT intensity, whereas 69 % of stations have increasing trend of EHMT intensity. The trends are the range of ?0.72 °C/10 years to 0 °C/10 years and 0–0.7 °C/10 years, respectively. We propose the extreme temperatures indices, ELMT index (ELMTI) and EHMT index (EHMTI), which combined the frequency and intensity of extreme temperatures to represent the order of severity of extreme temperatures. According to this approach, serious ELMT mainly occur in the Songliao Plain and the Sanjiang Plain, especially in the Songliao Plain. Serious EHMT distinctly occur in the Sanjing Plain, and the southwestern and northwestern regions of Northeast China in recent five decades.     

Contributions of individual variation in temperature, solar radiation and precipitation to crop yield in the North China Plain, 1961–2003

An understanding of the relative impacts of the changes in climate variables on crop yield can help develop effective adaptation strategies to cope with climate change. This study was conducted to investigate the effects of the interannual variability and trends in temperature, solar radiation and precipitation during 1961–2003 on wheat and maize yields in a double cropping system at Beijing and Zhengzhou in the North China Plain (NCP), and to examine the relative contributions of each climate variable in isolation. 129 climate scenarios consisting of all the combinations of these climate variables were constructed. Each scenario contained 43 years of observed values of one variable, combined with values of the other two variables from each individual year repeated 43 times. The Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM) was used to simulate crop yields using the ensemble of generated climate scenarios. The results showed that the warming trend during the study period did not have significant impact on wheat yield potential at both sites, and only had significant negative impact on maize yield potential at Beijing. This is in contrast with previous results on effect of warming. The decreasing trend in solar radiation had a much greater impact on simulated yields of both wheat and maize crops, causing a significant reduction in potential yield of wheat and maize at Beijing. Although decreasing trends in rainfed yield of both simulated wheat and maize were found, the substantial interannual variability of precipitation made the trends less prominent.     

Characterization of precipitation δ 18O variation in Nagqu, central Tibetan Plateau and its climatic controls

The stable isotopic composition of precipitation in different regions reflects climatic factors such as temperature, precipitation, moisture sources, and transport process. However, the isotopic variation in the region is usually much complicated due to the combined influences of these factors. A good understanding of climatic controls on the isotopic composition of precipitation can contribute to the study on isotopic tracer for climate and hydrology. To investigate the isotopic variation of precipitation and its climatic controls in the middle of the Tibetan Plateau, a monitoring station for stable isotope in precipitation has been established in Nagqu region, central Tibetan Plateau. We obtained 79 daily samples at Nagqu Meteorological Station in 2000. The observed δ ¹⁸O in precipitation showed a distinctly seasonal pattern with higher values in spring and winter and lower values in summer, despite of individually low values in winter due to extremely low temperature. To further understand this pattern, we evaluated the influence of temperature, precipitation, moisture sources, and moisture transport process on precipitation δ ¹⁸O. A multiple linear regression model represents quantitatively the dependence of precipitation δ ¹⁸O on precipitation and temperature: δ ¹⁸O_ppt?=??0.30P???0.11T???14.8 (R ²?=?0.13, n?=?79, P?=?0.005), which indicates δ ¹⁸O values in precipitation are more dependent on precipitation amount than on temperature. In contrast, when the temperature is low enough (<2°C), δ ¹⁸O values in precipitation are mainly dependent on temperature: δ ¹⁸O_ppt?=?0.53T???10.2 (R ²?=?0.44, n?=?19, P?=?0.002). The variation of δ ¹⁸O in precipitation is also closely related to moisture origins and transport trajectories. A model is set up to trace the trajectories for air masses arriving in the observed region, and the results demonstrated that humid marine air masses from the Indian Ocean generally have significantly lower δ ¹⁸O values than dry continental air masses from the north or local re-evaporation. During monsoon precipitation, the distance and depth of moisture transport as well as convective precipitation all lead to the large variability of δ ¹⁸O in precipitation.