海底缓坡场地地震侧移数值分析方法

地震动使海底倾斜土层软化、液化并产生永久变形和位移。基于有限元理论,提出一种海底缓坡场地地震引起水平侧移的数值计算方法,将波浪荷载简化为恒定压力荷载和初始孔压,采用二维有效应力动力有限元分析方法进行液化分析,同时由模量软化理论得到土层在地震动各时段的模量,通过非线性静力方法计算软化、液化引起的水平侧移。由算例分析了土层坡度、液化层及上覆非液化层厚度、波浪荷载等因素对侧移的影响,通过对比分析表明了该方法的有效性,可为近海工程场地地震地质灾害评价提供参考数据。     

降雨条件下边坡水文响应及其变形过程分析——以深圳大龙山边坡为例

以深圳大龙山边坡为例,采用水分计、张力计、渗压计、固定式测斜仪和雨量计等针对边坡开展了降雨量、不同部位边坡土体基质吸力、体积含水量、孔隙水压力和深部水平变形等的监测,对降雨条件下边坡水文过程和内部变形进行了分析,发现当日降雨量较小时,如在2009年4月18日日降雨量为52.4mm/d的情况下,地表以下0.5m和1m深度土体含水量和基质吸力都发生响应;日降雨量较大时,如在2009年5月23日、24日连续两天日降雨量超过100mm/d的降雨情况下,3m深度内的体积含水量和基质吸力均表现响应;渗压计P4的地下水位距离地表只有约6m的距离,监测到瞬态孔隙水压力对降雨响应及其敏感,其余渗压计的孔隙水压力基本未发生变化,推测持时短的暴雨易造成山体边坡的浅层滑坡。同时,该边坡在3m内的累积位移相对较大,最大累积如测斜IN3A向累积位移接近10mm。但累积位移无继续增大的趋势,处于稳定状态。     

基于无限边坡算法的降雨型滑坡预警系统的模型试验研究

滑坡预警系统是减少降雨型滑坡灾害的重要手段,其中针对具体单个滑坡失稳的预警系统,尽管具有较好的物理判断依据,但由于其构造机制较为复杂,目前仍然比较少见。基于无限边坡算法构建了较为简单的实验室降雨型滑坡技术性预警系统,并详细介绍了该系统的预警思路、预警时间计算原理、信息交流及反馈的实现。通过模型试验结果考察该预警系统在估算不同降雨强度及不同初始含水状态下滑坡失稳时间的表现,并对模型试验结果、预警能力进行分析。结果表明,基于无限边坡算法的预警系统的预警能力尽管受到降雨侵蚀、滑动面位置、初始含水状态的影响,但仍然具有较好的准确性。     

基于斜坡单元的滑坡风险识别

识别斜坡地质灾害风险已成为西南山区地质灾害防治的重要基础工作,通过GIS软件划分出孕灾斜坡单元,选取坡度、坡高、覆盖层厚度、滑体土类型、人类工程活动、日最大降雨量等6项指标作为评价因子,利用层次分析法开展山区大比例尺地质灾害危险性评价,初步评价出研究区危险性斜坡。以万山区1:1万地质灾害风险调查获取的斜坡剖面模型为基础,通过取样、试验,综合选取岩土体物理力学参数,利用有限元软件对暴雨状态下的高危险斜坡进行数值模拟,通过强度折减计算出安全系数均小于1.05,并存在不同程度的塑性贯通区。其分析结果与层次分析法评价结果一致,可作为西南山区浅层土质滑坡隐患识别的定量化评价方法。     

Seismically induced landslide displacements: a predictive model

Newmark's model for predicting earthquake-induced landslide displacements provides a simple way to predict the coseismic displacements affecting a sliding mass subject to earthquake loading. In this model, seismic slope stability is measured in terms of critical acceleration, which depends on the mechanical soil properties, pore-pressure distribution, and slope geometry. The triggering seismic forces are investigated in terms of energy radiation from the source, propagation, and site effects, based on 190 accelerometric recordings from 17 Italian earthquakes with magnitudes between 4.5 and 6.8. The method is based on the calibration of relations having the general form of an attenuation law that relates the energy of the seismic forces to the dynamic shear resistances of the sliding mass to propagate the expected landslide displacements as an inverse function of the distance from the fault rupture; the amount of displacement computed through these relations provides a criterion to predict the occurrence of slope failures. Finally, maps showing, in a deterministic and a probabilistic way, the potential of seismically induced landslide displacements are displayed as a tool to provide seismic landslide scenarios and earthquake-induced landslide hazard maps, respectively.     

An approach for GIS-based statistical landslide susceptibility zonation—with a case study in the Himalayas

Landslide susceptibility zonation (LSZ) is necessary for disaster management and planning development activities in mountainous regions. A number of methods, viz. landslide distribution, qualitative, statistical and distribution-free analyses have been used for the LSZ studies and they are again briefly reviewed here. In this work, two methods, the Information Value (InfoVal) and the Landslide Nominal Susceptibility Factor (LNSF) methods that are based on bivariate statistical analysis have been applied for LSZ mapping in a part of the Himalayas. Relevant thematic maps representing various factors (e.g., slope, aspect, relative relief, lithology, buffer zones along thrusts, faults and lineaments, drainage density and landcover) that are related to landslide activity, have been generated using remote sensing and GIS techniques. The LSZ derived from the LNSF method, has been compared with that produced from the InfoVal method and the result shows a more realistic LSZ map from the LNSF method which appears to conform to the heterogeneity of the terrain.     

走滑断裂百万年时间尺度位移量估计及其在阿尔金断裂系中的应用

断裂滑动速率不仅是新生代构造定量研究的重要参数之一,也是地球动力学研究的重要组成部分.但现有研究普遍缺乏介于长时间尺度(>Ma)地质体累积位移和短时间尺度(晚第四纪以来)地貌单元位错以及年—十年尺度的大地测量观测之间的断裂位移量,从而造成了理解百万年时间尺度下断裂演化历史的空区.由于走滑断裂破坏了山前洪积扇与其汇水盆地...     

东南沿海台风暴雨型单体斜坡灾害风险评价——以泰顺仕阳北坡为例

在东南沿海地区每年汛期由台风暴雨诱发的坡积层滑坡灾害事故众多,给当地人民生命财产安全造成巨大威胁。斜坡单体风险评价是地质灾害治理与防控的重点、难点。在野外调查、工程地质钻探及岩土体力学测试的基础上,以仕阳镇仕阳北坡为例,结合气象资料分析了不同降雨条件下斜坡的稳定性;采用蒙特卡洛方法计算了斜坡安全系数的统计特性;基于斜坡破坏概率研究了承灾体的易损性,并定量计算了不同降雨条件下建筑物及人员的风险值。结果表明：随着降雨强度的增加,滑坡发生概率随之增加,其风险值也逐渐增加,特大暴雨工况风险最大,其人员风险为94人/年,经济风险为1.41亿元/年。研究结果对东南沿海地区该类滑坡的防治工程有重要的参考意义,可为该类滑坡的防灾减灾决策提供建议。     

永吉高速公路黑潭坪边坡三维稳定性研究

通过对永吉高速公路黑潭坪边坡的野外调查,详细地了解了研究区工程地质条件,探讨了边坡变形破坏机理,结合室内试验和计算反演获取岩土体强度参数,在此基础上建立三维地质模型,运用FLAC3D数值分析软件采用强度折减法对不同工况下的坡体稳定性进行详细分析并提出治理建议。研究表明:(1)边坡变形破坏是内外因素综合作用的结果,岩土体性质不良是边坡变形破坏的内在因素,坡脚便道开挖和地表水下渗是边坡变形破坏的诱导因素;(2)强度折减法应用于边坡三位稳定性分析具有较好的适用性;(3)数值模拟显示采用削坡结合锚固的综合治理措施具有明显的效果。     

基于自组织特征映射网络-随机森林模型的滑坡易发性评价

为深入探讨评价单元和非滑坡样本选取对滑坡易发性预测的影响,构建了一种基于自组织特征映射网络-随机森林模型的滑坡易发性评价模型。该模型针对栅格单元和斜坡单元在滑坡易发性评价中的不足,结合栅格单元和斜坡单元的相互关系,提出了滑坡易发性指数的优化计算方法。在此基础上,基于随机森林Tree Bagger分类器构建滑坡易发性评价模型,通过对比分析自组织特征映射网络和随机方法选取非滑坡样本对评价结果的影响,探讨自组织特征映射网络、随机森林和自组织特征映射网络-随机森林三种评价模型的有效性;将评价模型应用于大余县滑坡易发性评价。结果显示,随机森林模型和自组织特征映射网络-随机森林模型的预测精度较高,分别达到91.19%和94.94%,成功率曲线的AUC值分别为0.822和0.849,表明自组织特征映射网络-随机森林模型具有更高的预测率和成功率, 自组织特征映射网络聚类的预测精度虽然有限,但作为非滑坡样本的选择方法,能够有效提高随机森林模型的评价精度。     

Geo-diversity and its hydrological response in relation to landslide susceptibility in the Himalaya: a GIS-based case study

Assessment and inventory of landslide susceptibility are essential for the formulation of successful disaster mitigation plans. The objective of this study was to assess landslide susceptibility in relation to geo-diversity and its hydrological response in the Lesser Himalaya with a case study using Geographic Information System (GIS) technology. The Dabka watershed, which constitutes a part of the Kosi Basin in the Lesser Himalaya, India, in the district of Nainital, has been selected for the case illustration. The study constitutes three GIS modules: geo-diversity informatics, hydro informatics and landslide informatics. Through the integration and superimposing of spatial data and attribute data of all three GIS modules, Landslide Susceptibility Index (LSI) has been prepared to identify the level of susceptibility for landslide hazards. This resonance study, carried out over a period of five years (2007–2011), found that areas of most stressed geo-diversity (comprising very steep slopes above 30°, geology of Lower Krol and Lariakanta formation, geomorphology of moist areas and debris sites, land use of barren land with a very high drainage frequency and spring density) have a high landslide susceptibility because of high rate of average runoff (33 l/s/km²), flood magnitude (307.28 l/s/km²), erosion (398 tons/km²) and landslide density (5–10 landslides/km²). The areas of least stressed geo-diversity (comprising gentle slopes below 10°, geology of Kailakhan and Siwalik formation, geomorphology of depositional terraces, land use of dense forest with low drainage frequency and spring density) have the lowest landslide susceptibility because of the low rate of average runoff (6.27 l/s/km²), flood magnitude (20.49 l/s/km²), erosion (65.80 tons/km²) and landslide density (1–2 landslides/km²).     

区域崩塌滑坡的易发性评价--以四川省珙县为例

以四川省珙县为例，探讨了以GIS技术为支撑的区域崩塌、滑坡易发性评价的基本思路和技术路线；对评价指标的选取作了概括的分析和说明，认为其预测评价因素分为基本因素和诱发因素2大类；采用模糊综合评判方法对崩塌、滑坡的易发性进行评价，并在模糊综合评判方法的具体应用、评价指标隶属度的确定以及权重确定等方面也作了分析和阐述；对珙县区域崩塌、滑坡的易发程度讲行了评价，结果与实际较为吻合。     

基于RS和GIS的地质灾害易发性定量评价:以湖北省五峰县为例

根据地质灾害的群发性和区域性的特点,运用地质统计学理论,通过分析,选取研究区内致灾因子,采用信息量模型进行地质灾害易发性定量评价。文中采用地质统计学信息量法,以GIS技术和RS技术为基础,从致灾机理上对各致灾因子进行选取和分析,使用GIS空间分析技术,完成了地质灾害易发性分区定量分析。分析结果表明,研究区内:(1)软硬相间碳酸盐岩类、(2)与河谷距离50～350m的斜坡带、(3)软硬相间碎屑岩类、(4)公路两侧1km范围、(5)斜坡在断裂带影响范围以内(1km)、(6)与河谷距离<50m或350～550m等6大影响因子对地质灾害的发生起主导作用。其中,除"公路两侧1km范围"为人类工程活动外,其他因素均为地质动力作用。研究完成的五峰县地质灾害易发分区定量评价,为五峰县的经济发展和城镇规划提供了科学依据,同时为以后在鄂西南地区进行地质灾害遥感解译提供了参考。     

三峡库区高切坡变形监测——以万州区为例

高切坡变形和失稳是三峡库区广泛分布的一种地质灾害形式,严重影响着移民房屋、道路交通以及人民生命财产的安全。本文以万州库区为例,介绍了高切坡变形监测网络构成。该网络采用了高精度的GPS空间定位技术,全站仪变形监测技术、数字化精密水准测量、先进的遥测台网技术并与地理信息系统相结合,构成了一个空间上点、线、面相结合的高效率高切坡变形监测网络系统。该变形监测系统2008年建成,到目前为止,已经获得了大量的宝贵的监测数据,为当地高切坡变形和失稳的预警预报提供了科学依据。     

Visualization of geotechnical data by means of geographic information system: a case study in Eskisehir city (NW Turkey)

Recently, geographic information system Software’s are widely used in engineering geology applications. Such a study was performed in the Eskisehir urban area of about 30 km² via geo-engineering maps, cross-sections and panel-block diagrams, which are formed to predict the properties of foundation soil. In order to determine the engineering geology properties of the region, physical and mechanical characteristics of the soil profile were tested on 1,011 disturbed and 383 undisturbed samples from a total of 170 boreholes. Topographic, lithological and geotechnical data of the region were compiled as a database in computer. Five geological cross-sections were drawn to decipher specifically the alluvial deposits in detail in densely populated areas. Hence, geological characteristics of the area were evaluated in a three-dimensional mode. Five standard penetration test (SPT) cross-sections at the same directions and SPT, uniaxial compressive strength (qu) and soil class Zonation maps were produced at different depths and panel-block diagrams were also created to define the geo-engineering properties of the investigation area. In this respect, the sub-surface of the study area is fully visualized and useful predictor maps, cross-sections and panel-block diagrams are performed to be used in further studies.     

When citizens choose not to participate in volunteering geographic information to e-governance: a case study from Mexico

Citizen participation is a crucial democratic practice in many western societies. In contemporary societies, different social agents utilise information and communication technology using Internet-based systems, to establish two-way communication in order to promote citizen participation. One such approach is volunteered geographical information (VGI). It is considered that VGI provides a new space for citizen engagement, as well as an arena for political contestation, however little attention has been paid to the reasons, drivers and limitations for voluntary citizen participation. Although there is an extensive literature on both VGI and citizen participation, this rarely considers how much citizen participation is necessary to run a VGI platform, what are the drivers for non-participation, and what happens within a democratic political space when citizens are apparently not interested to participate with a VGI deployment These topics are explored in this paper, through the lens of a particular case study of a University deployment for VGI developed in Mexico and a wider analysis of other VGI deployments taken from the literature. By critically assessing the extent to which the VGI deployments have enabled citizen participation, and the degree and quality of this participation, we draw conclusions as to how far and under what circumstances VGI can support government agencies to engage citizens in a meaningful dialogue as part of democratic governance initiatives. This leads us to identify key areas for further research by geographers and related social scientists exploring these socio-technical systems and their effects on democratic societies.     

地理探测器在判别滑坡稳定性影响因素中的应用

高山峡谷区是滑坡灾害频发地区,随着气候变化和人类活动加剧,滑坡呈多发、频发态势。本文选择坐落于横断山高山峡谷区的西藏江达县作为研究区,利用野外调查获取的85个滑坡数据,选取坡度、河流密度、地貌类型、降水量、距断层距离、道路密度、地震动峰值加速度、岩性等8个稳定性影响因素,运用地理探测器对滑坡稳定性的影响因素进行了探测。结果表明：（1）按滑坡体体积划分等级,江达县滑坡主要以中、小型滑坡为主;按其稳定性划分,50%以上的滑坡处于稳定状态;按危险等级划分,以Ⅲ级、Ⅳ级为主;江达县滑坡主要沿河流与道路分布,全县地面调查发现85处滑坡全部分布于河流附近,其中71.76%的滑坡分布于道路两侧。（2）江达县滑坡稳定性的主要影响因子为地貌类型、河流密度、道路密度和距断层距离,其贡献率分别为0.501,0.477,0.465,0.332;当影响因子两两相互作用时,因子解释力总是大于单个因子对滑坡稳定性的解释力,即当两种影响因子相互作用时,对于滑坡的失稳具有促进作用。     

岩土混合边坡预应力锚杆支护数值模拟：以深圳金园路边坡为例

预应力锚杆支护是一种较新型的锚固技术,但实际工程设计都偏保守,造成经济浪费,因此实际设计过程中存在诸多预应力锚杆参数优化问题。使用有限元分析软件Abaqus模拟锚杆长度、锚固角度、预应力、直径诸因素的变化对边坡稳定性的影响趋势,通过正交试验优化设计得出最优组合方案,为预应力锚杆的相关设计提供科学参考,避免工程建设的安全隐患或不合理投资。     

岩溶区坡耕地土壤肥力综合评价——以重庆中梁山坡耕地样区为例

坡耕地是我国西南地区最重要的土地利用类型,也是我国一项重要的国土资源。由于该地区坡耕地石漠化程度高,土壤侵蚀问题严重,致使坡耕地土壤肥力不断退化。以重庆市中梁山坡耕地样区为例,采用模糊综合指数法进行小尺度坡耕地土壤肥力评价。经取样数合理性分析表明,25个样点估计研究区土壤肥力评价能够满足90 %置信水平条件下,10 %、15 %和20 %的相对误差取样数的精度要求;运用主成分分析（PCA）,通过计算变量的Norm值筛选有机质、全氮、全磷、全钾、碱解氮、耕层厚度和粉黏比进入最小数据集（MDS）,并对进入MDS的肥力因子进行相关系数分析检验,表明选取的MDS能最大程度表达坡耕地土壤属性信息;利用隶属度函数实现评价指标量纲归一化并对单项肥力指标进行评价,采用加权求和模型计算土壤肥力综合指数（IFI）,结果表明,土壤有机质和全磷是影响研究区土壤肥力的限制因子,研究区80 %样地肥力综合指数在0.40～0.60之间,肥力水平处于中等程度。