Comparative analysis of contributing parameters for rainfall-triggered landslides in the Lesser Himalaya of Nepal

In the Himalaya, people live in widely spread settlements and suffer more from landslides than from any other type of natural disaster. The intense summer monsoons are the main factor in triggering landslides. However, the relations between landslides and slope hydrology have not been a focal topic in Himalayan landslide research. This paper deals with the contributing parameters for the rainfall-triggered landslides which occurred during an extreme monsoon rainfall event on 23 July 2002, in the south-western hills of Kathmandu valley, in the Lesser Himalaya, Nepal. Parameters such as bedrock geology, geomorphology, geotechnical properties of soil, and clay mineralogy are described in this paper. Landslide modeling was performed in SEEP/W and SLOPE/W to understand the relationship of pore water pressure variations in soil layers and to determine the spatial variation of landslide occurrence. Soil characteristics, low angle of internal friction of fines in soil, medium range of soil permeability, presence of clay minerals in soil, bedrock hydrogeology, and human intervention were found to be the main contributing parameters for slope failures in the region.     

Causes of large-scale landslides in the Lesser Himalaya of central Nepal

Geologically and tectonically active Himalayan Range is characterized by highly elevated mountains and deep river valleys. Because of steep mountain slopes, and dynamic geological conditions, large-scale landslides are very common in Lesser and Higher Himalayan zones of Nepal Himalaya. Slopes along the major highways of central Nepal namely Prithvi Highway, Narayangadh-Mugling Road and Tribhuvan Highway are considered in this study of large-scale landslides. Geologically, the highways in consideration pass through crushed and jointed Kathmandu Nappe affected by numerous faults and folds. The relict large-scale landslides have been contributing to debris flows and slides along the highways. Most of the slope failures are mainly bechanced in geological formations consisting phyllite, schist and gneiss. Laboratory test on the soil samples collected from the failure zones and field investigation suggested significant hydrothermal alteration in the area. The substantial hydrothermal alteration in the Lesser Himalaya during advancement of the Main Central Thrust (MCT) and thereby clay mineralization in sliding zones of large-scale landslide are the main causes of large-scale landslides in the highways of central Nepal. This research also suggests that large-scale landslides are the major cause of slope failure during monsoon in the Lesser Himalaya of Nepal. Similarly, hydrothermal alteration is also significant in failure zone of the large-scale landslides. For the sustainable road maintenance in Nepal, it is of utmost importance to study the nature of sliding zones of large-scale landslides along the highways and their role to cause debris flows and slides during monsoon period.     

Probabilistic failure analysis of infinite slopes under random rainfall processes and spatially variable soil

Rainfall-induced landslides occur during or immediately after rainfall events in which the pore water pressure builds up, leading to shallow slope failure. Thereby, low permeability layers result in high gradients in pore water pressure. The spatial variability of the soil permeability influences the probability such low permeability layers, and hence the probability of slope failure. In this paper, we investigate the influence of the vertical variability of soil permeability on the slope reliability, accounting for the randomness of rainfall processes. We model the saturated hydraulic conductivity of the soil with a one-dimensional random field. The random rainfall events are characterised by their duration and intensity and are modelled through self-similar random processes. The transient infiltration process is represented by Richards equation, which is evaluated numerically. The reliability analysis of the infinite slope is based on the factor of safety concept for evaluating slope stability. To cope with the large number of random variables arising from the discretization of the random field and the rainfall process, we evaluate the slope reliability through Subset Simulation, which is an adaptive Monte Carlo method known to be especially efficient for reliability analysis of such high-dimensional problems. Numerical investigations show higher probability of slope failure with increased spatial variability of the saturated hydraulic conductivity and with more uniform rainfall patterns.     

Transient modeling of regional rainfall-triggered shallow landslides

This study investigates the transient modeling of regional rainfall-triggered shallow landslides in unsaturated soil using the Richards equation. To model shallow landslides within a distributed regional-scale framework, infinite slope stability analysis coupled with the hydrological model with consideration of the fluctuation of time-dependent pore water pressure and the soil–water characteristic curve proposed by van Genuchten was developed. The validity of the proposed model is established through several test problems by comparing the numerical results with the analytical solutions. A new procedure to set up wide-range shallow landslide analysis and to integrate regional distribution variations for input data such as geology, groundwater level, hydrogeological characteristics, and rainfall intensity and duration was presented. The results obtained demonstrate that the computed distribution of the safety factor is consistent with the distribution of actual landslides. In addition, the fluctuation of pore water pressure in unsaturated soil dominates the stability of landslides during typhoons accompanied by heavy rainfall. The findings observed in this study are a fundamental contribution to environmental effects for landslides in areas with higher occurrence and vulnerability to extreme precipitation.     

Influence of the spatial variability of shear strength parameters on rainfall induced landslides: a case study of sandstone slope in Japan

Rainfall-induced landslides frequently occur in humid temperate regions worldwide. Research activity in understanding the mechanism of rainfall-induced landslides has recently focused on the probability of slope failure involving non-homogeneous soil profiles. This paper presents probabilistic analyses to assess the stability of unsaturated soil slope under rainfall. The influence of the spatial variability of shear strength parameters on the probability of rainfall-induced slope failure is conducted by means of a series of seepage and stability analyses of an infinite slope based on random fields. A case study of shallow failure located on sandstone slopes in Japan is used to verify the analysis framework. The results confirm that a probabilistic analysis can be efficiently used to qualify various locations of failure surface caused by spatial variability of soil shear strength for a shallow infinite slope failure due to rainfall.     

考虑优势流作用的降雨入渗边坡可靠度分析

降雨诱发滑坡是世界上最普遍的地质灾害,而关于降雨入渗对边坡的可靠度分析,优势入渗的影响被长期忽视。使用Comsol Multiphysics对降雨条件下优势入渗做数值求解,利用无限边坡模型计算边坡安全系数;并应用改进Cholesky分解法生成空间相关随机场,使用蒙特卡洛方法分析降雨过程中边坡的可靠度。结合确定性与可靠度计算对比均质入渗与优势入渗在降雨过程中边坡安全性变化：（1）降雨强度较低时,优势入渗安全性较好,而降雨强度较高时,均质入渗更稳定;（2）均质入渗中参数空间变异性是边坡失稳破坏的关键因素,而优势入渗的边坡失稳则由湿润峰快速推进所导致;（3）针对优势入渗模型研究,发现基质域与优势域水力交换强度较大时边坡有更大概率失稳,而较小的水力交换强度可能影响边坡底部的失稳破坏。     

A distributed hydrological–geotechnical model using satellite-derived rainfall estimates for shallow landslide prediction system at a catchment scale

This paper describes the potential applicability of a hydrological–geotechnical modeling system using satellite-based rainfall estimates for a shallow landslide prediction system. The physically based distributed model has been developed by integrating a grid-based distributed kinematic wave rainfall-runoff model with an infinite slope stability approach. The model was forced by the satellite-based near real-time half-hourly CMORPH global rainfall product prepared by NOAA-CPC. The method combines the following two model outputs necessary for identifying where and when shallow landslides may potentially occur in the catchment: (1) the time-invariant spatial distribution of areas susceptible to slope instability map, for which the river catchment is divided into stability classes according to the critical relative soil saturation; this output is designed to portray the effect of quasi-static land surface variables and soil strength properties on slope instability and (2) a produced map linked with spatiotemporally varying hydrologic properties to provide a time-varying estimate of susceptibility to slope movement in response to rainfall. The proposed hydrological model predicts the dynamic of soil saturation in each grid element. The stored water in each grid element is then used for updating the relative soil saturation and analyzing the slope stability. A grid of slope is defined to be unstable when the relative soil saturation becomes higher than the critical level and is the basis for issuing a shallow landslide warning. The method was applied to past landslides in the upper Citarum River catchment (2,310 km²), Indonesia; the resulting time-invariant landslide susceptibility map shows good agreement with the spatial patterns of documented historical landslides (1985–2008). Application of the model to two recent shallow landslides shows that the model can successfully predict the effect of rainfall movement and intensity on the spatiotemporal dynamic of hydrological variables that trigger shallow landslides. Several hours before the landslides, the model predicted unstable conditions in some grids over and near the grids at which the actual shallow landslides occurred. Overall, the results demonstrate the potential applicability of the modeling system for shallow landslide disaster predictions and warnings.     

Back analyses of rainfall-induced slope failure in Northland Allochthon formation

To verify numerical models used for the development of an early warning system for rainfall induced landslides, a back analysis of a roadway embankment adjacent to State Highway 1 in Silverdale, New Zealand has been undertaken. The embankment collapsed in June 2008 as a result of prolonged rainfall. The failure occurred in a cut slope through the landslide-prone Northland Allochthon formation. Using volumetric water content sensors and a rainfall gauge, recordings were made of the field response of the soil due to rainfall events during the 2010 winter. Saturated/unsaturated seepage analyses were undertaken using empirically obtained soil parameters to simulate the variation in the monitored volumetric water contents in conjunction with a slope stability analysis to determine the factor of safety of the slope. The rainfall record that caused the slope failure was then applied as an influx to this model to determine the factor of safety against slope failure. If modelled correctly, this factor of safety should reach a minimum at the same time the landslide occurred. If a good agreement between the models and the field observations is reached, the models can be used to create a cost-effective early warning system.     

Rain induced shallow landslide hazard assessment for ungauged catchments

A physically based distributed slope stability model derived from the integration of hydrologic analysis and slope stability analysis is presented for GIS based modeling on a catchment scale. The catchment is represented by a mesh of squares with vertical columns. The hydrologic model calculates subsurface flow and resulting pore-water pressure during rainfall in each cell for every time step. The slope stability module then calculates the stability of each cell for the changing water pressure scenario. There are very few input data requirements, which makes the model applicable to ungauged catchments, also where the record of the past landslides and associated rainfall are not available. The model was tested in Garjuwa catchment, Nepal where all landslide scars were documented. The model reproduces the observed distribution of landslide locations in a consistent way. Several model runs were conducted, increasing the intensity of rainfall to see corresponding increase in instability. The results show that there is a critical rainfall intensity for the catchment, beyond which increase in rainfall intensity does not increase instability significantly.     

Detection of water infiltration and deformation of unsaturated soils by elastic wave velocity

Intense rainfall is the most important landslide trigger. In many mountainous environments of the world, heavy rainfall has caused many landslides and slope failures in a matter of seconds without warning. Therefore, an early warning system can be an effective measure to reduce the damage caused by landslides and slope failures by facilitating the timely evacuation of people from landslide-prone areas. In this study, we propose an idea to correlate soil moisture changes and deformations in slope surface by means of elastic wave propagation in soil. Constant shear stress drained triaxial tests where water was infiltrated from the bottom of specimen until failure, and slope model tests under artificial rainfall were performed to investigate the response of elastic wave velocities during pre-failure phases of rainwater infiltration and deformation. Analysis of the results has established that the elastic wave velocity continuously decreases in response of moisture content and deformation, and there was a distinct surge in the decrease rate of wave velocity when failure was initiated. Possible mechanisms were interpreted based on the test results. It is proposed that a warning be issued at switch of wave velocity decrease rate. This approach can thus serve as the basis of an early warning system for landslides and slope failure considering both moisture content and deformation.     

The influence of shallow landslides on sediment supply: A flume-based investigation using sandy soil

The impact of rainfall-induced shallow landslides on hillslope sediment discharge is not well understood. This paper reports experimental measurements of sediment discharge after water-induced shallow landslides are triggered on sandy soil in a flume under simulated rainfall. The principal aim of the research was to investigate how varying soil depth affects the location and occurrence of shallow slope failures, as well as how it affects sediment yields downslope. Four experiments were conducted using the same sandy soil and a 30° and 10° compound slope configuration under average rainfall intensity of 50 mm h^− 1 for up to 390 min. Soil depths were set to 200, 300, 400 and 500 mm. Engineering and geotechnical properties of the soil were examined. Sediment discharge and runoff were collected from the flume outlet at 15 minute intervals. Changes in the soil slope profiles after landslides and soil physical properties resulted from soil armouring, under continuous rainfall were also recorded. Results showed that sediment yields at the flume outlet, before landslides occurred, were very low and limited to the finer soil particles as would be expected for a sandy soil. However subsequent variations in sediment discharge were strongly related to failure events and their proximity to the outlet. Sediment yield was also affected by the original soil depth; the greater the depth, the higher the sediment yields. Post-failure reductions in sediment discharge were observed and attributed to post-failure slope stabilization under continuing rainfall and extensive soil armouring near the flume outlet. The results provide a clear linkage between landslides and sediment discharge due to hydrological processes occurring in the hillslope. This knowledge is being used to develop a model to predict sediment discharges from hillslopes following shallow landslide events.     

Rainfall-triggered landslides in an unsaturated soil: a laboratory flume study

Extreme and/or prolonged rainfall events frequently cause landslides in many parts of the world. In this study, infiltration of rainfall into an unsaturated soil slope and triggering of landslides is studied through laboratory model (flume) tests, with the goal of obtaining the triggering rainfall intensity–duration (I–D) threshold. Flume tests with fine sand at two different relative densities (34 and 48%) and at slope angle of 56.5° are prepared, and rainfall (intensity in the range of 18 to 64 mm/h) is applied via a mist sprinkler system to trigger landslides. Soil water characteristic curve and hydraulic conductivity function of the fine sand are also presented. In flume tests, suction in the soil is measured with tensiometers, the progress of wetting front with time and deformations in the soil are also measured. Some of the findings of this study are: for the fine sand used in this study (a) the failure mechanism is infinite-slope type (mostly translational), and the failure surface is generally coincident with the wetting front or is in its vicinity, (b) the deformations leading to a landslide occurred abruptly, (c) both relatively high-intensity–short-duration rainfalls and relatively low-intensity–long duration rainfalls triggered landslides, (d) the shape of the I–D threshold is demonstrated to be a bilinear relation in log intensity–log duration plot, (e) below a certain rainfall intensity landslides are not triggered, (f) the effect of relative density of the soil on the I–D threshold is demonstrated by physical laboratory tests (as the relative density of the soil increases, the triggering rainfall intensity–duration threshold moves to larger rainfall events). The results of this study could be useful for accurate numerical modeling of rainfall-triggered landslides.     

The effect of antecedent rainfall on slope stability

A case study is presented in order to identify the effect of antecedent rainfall on slope stability for Singapore. A storm in February 1995 (during which 95 mm of rain fell in 2 h) caused more than twenty shallow landslides on the Nanyang Technological University Campus. Details of the location, size and morphology of the landslides are presented. The antecedent rainfall during the five days preceding the event was significant in causing these landslides since other rainfall events of similar magnitude (but with less antecedent rainfall) did not cause landslides. To further understand the effect of antecedent rainfall, numerical modelling of one of the slope failures is presented. The changes in pore-water pressure due to different rainfall patterns were simulated and these were used to calculate the changes in factor of safety of the slope. The results demonstrate that antecedent rainfall does play an important role in slope stability.     

Numerical modeling of rainstorm-induced shallow landslides in saturated and unsaturated soils

For the assessment of shallow landslides triggered by rainfall, the physically based model coupling the infinite slope stability analysis with the hydrological modeling in nearly saturated soil has commonly been used due to its simplicity. However, in that model the rainfall infiltration in unsaturated soil could not be reliably simulated because a linear diffusion-type Richards’ equation rather than the complete Richards’ equation was used. In addition, the effect of matric suction on the shear strength of soil was not actually considered. Therefore, except the shallow landslide in saturated soil due to groundwater table rise, the shallow landslide induced by the loss in unsaturated shear strength due to the dissipation of matric suction could not be reliably assessed. In this study, a physically based model capable of assessing shallow landslides in variably saturated soils is developed by adopting the complete Richards’ equation with the effect of slope angle in the rainfall infiltration modeling and using the extended Mohr–Coulomb failure criterion to describe the unsaturated shear strength in the soil failure modeling. The influence of rainfall intensity and duration on shallow landslide is investigated using the developed model. The result shows that the rainfall intensity and duration seem to have similar influence on shallow landslides respectively triggered by the increase of positive pore water pressure in saturated soil and induced by the dissipation of matric suction in unsaturated soil. The rainfall duration threshold decreases with the increase in rainfall intensity, but remains constant for large rainfall intensity.     

基于TRIGRS模型的浅层滑坡稳定性分析

采用基于网格的瞬态降雨入渗(TRIGRS)模型,以滑坡灾害频发的陕南安康市东部巴山东段白河县为研究区,探讨模型适用性及不同降雨条件下边坡稳定性空间分布规律。根据中国土壤分布图并结合已有研究,选取模拟所需的水土力学参数。将模拟所得研究区稳定性分布图与实际滑坡目录对比分析进行TRIGRS模型精度评估,分别模拟连阴雨和短时间强降雨两种降雨情景,探讨研究区边坡稳定性空间分布规律,结果表明:1)TRIGRS模型在模拟预测降雨诱发型浅层滑坡时,结合受试者特征ROC曲线进行精度评估,曲线下面积为0.752,说明此模型在白河县进行滑坡模拟时具有一定的合理性与准确性,能反应该地区滑坡灾害的空间分布特征;2)连阴雨情景模拟下,极不稳定区域主要集中在北部低山地貌区,以冷水镇和麻虎镇为主,随降雨历时增加向东部和南部增多,西部仓上镇、西营镇和双丰镇的极不稳定区域面积较少,能承受长时间连续性降雨。短时间强降雨对边坡稳定性的影响更为直接,极不稳定区域随降雨强度增大而增加,以冷水镇和麻虎镇为主要防范区域。结合地形分析,极陡峭区域边坡稳定性最差,无法承受持续性降雨和高强度降雨,较陡峭区域更易受到降雨历时和降雨强度的影响,而平缓区域则能承受长时间及高强度的降雨;3)TRIGRS模型根据不同降雨条件预测易发生滑坡灾害的区域,为滑坡实时预报警系统提供了新的可能方法。     

Modeling of layered infinite slope failure triggered by rainfall

The infinite slope is typically regarded as composed of a single-layered soil with a uniform property in various physical-based models used for modeling rainfall-induced shallow landslides. This study extends the physical-based model to consider the layered infinite slope to examine the importance of soil layer distribution for rainfall-induced shallow landslides. Hypothetical scenarios of infinite slope composed of soil layers with different thicknesses and parameters are employed to conduct this examination. The results show that pressure heads caused by rainfall infiltration are strongly related to soil layer distribution. This shows the significant influence of soil layer distribution in assessing infinite slope stability. Failure of a layered infinite slope does not necessarily occur at the impervious bottom of the hillslope soil, but may also occur at the interface between two soil layers. This result shows that a neglect of soil layer distribution could misestimate failure depth. Hence, soil layer distribution must be considered to reliably analyze infinite slope failure induced by rainfall.     

Experimental and numerical analysis on the responses of slope under rainfall

Rainfall is an important factor to trigger the slope failure such as landslides and debris flows. First, the relationship between rainfall duration with the initiation of debris flow and rainfall intensity was mainly studied by the series tests in a box model. Then, the rainfall induced responses of slopes and the initiation of slope failure were simulated by using the software FLAC2D based on the soil parameters in Weijia Gully, Beichuan County, Sichuan Province. The effects of the slope angle, rainfall intensity, soil parameters on the development of the stress, and pore pressure in the soil of the slope were analyzed. It indicates that largest displacements in the slope are mainly located near the toe. With the increase of the rainfall intensity, the effective stress in the slope decreases and the displacement increases.     

降雨入渗条件下非饱和膨胀土边坡原位监测

为了对降雨诱发的非饱和膨胀土边坡失稳的机理有较深入的了解,在湖北枣阳选取了一个11 m高的典型的非饱和膨胀土挖方边坡进行人工降雨模拟试验和原位综合监测。监测成果表明：降雨入渗造成2 m深度以内土层中孔隙水压力和含水量大幅度增加,致使膨胀土体的抗剪强度由于有效应力的减少及土体吸水膨胀软化而降低;同时,降雨入渗造成土体中水平应力与竖向应力比显著增加,并接近理论的极限状态应力比,以致软化的土体有可能沿着裂隙面发生局部被动破坏,此破裂面在一定条件下（如持续降雨条件下）可能会逐渐扩展,最后发展成为膨胀土中常见的渐进式滑坡。     

Factors triggering landslide occurrence on the Zemun loess plateau,Belgrade area,Serbia

Among the numerous factors that trigger landslide events, the anthropogenic impact caused by inadequate planning and faulty land use in urban areas is increasing. The Zemun settlement on the northern outskirts of Belgrade has experienced a number of landslides in the last three decades, endangering buildings and roads, and claiming human lives, particularly in the case of the 2010/2011 landslides. Selected meteorological parameters were used to calculate rainfall erosivity indices such as Precipitation Concentration Index and Modified Fournier Index over the period 1991–2015. Drought indices, Lang aridity index and Palfai Drought Index were calculated as well. Mann–Kendall trend test was applied to identify potential rising and/or declining trends both in meteorological parameters and calculated indices. Trend analysis of the annual and seasonal scales yielded a statistically significant trend in the spring time series. Stable arid and pronounced drought conditions were recorded. The modified Fournier index based on monthly mean values yields moderate aggressiveness, with several extreme values indicating very high erosivity classes, especially for 2010/2011. The geological substrate is predominantly loess and hence highly susceptible to erosion and slope failure when climatological conditions are suitable. Accelerated urbanization at the end of the last century reduced vegetation cover, intensified pressure on the vertical loess slope, and lacked suitable rain drainage systems so that surface-water runoff was directed into the porous loess, thereby endangering slope stability. We proposed a geomorphic model to describe the nature of the erosional processes on the loess cliffs of the Zemun loess plateau. Results from this study have implications for mitigation strategies.