Scenario-based earthquake loss estimation for the city of Cairo,Egypt

This paper describes a multi-tiered loss assessment methodology to estimate seismic monetary implications resulting from structural damage to the building population in Greater Cairo. After outlining a ground-shaking model, data on geological structures and surface soil conditions are collated using a considerable number of boreholes to produce a classification of different soil deposits. An inventory database for the existing building stock is also prepared. The seismic vulnerability of representative reinforced concrete building models, designed according to prevalent codes and construction practices, is evaluated. Capacity spectrum methods are utilised for assessing the structural performance through a multi-level damage scale. A simplified methodology for deriving fragility curves for non-ductile reinforced concrete building classes that typically constitute the building population of the city is adopted. In addition, suitable fragility functions for unreinforced masonry constructions are selected and used for completing the loss model for the study area. The results are finally used to build an event-based loss model caused by possible earthquakes in the region.     

藏北高原班戈县地质灾害综合风险评价

区域地质灾害风险评价虽然开展多年, 但是由于地质灾害危险性难以评价和量化, 承灾体数据难以调查和获取, 区域风险评价的质量和精度一直不高, 研究进展缓慢; 更兼藏北高原自然条件恶劣、高寒缺氧、山峰多为冰川所覆盖, 大部分地区人迹罕至, 研究程度极低, 基础地质资料及地质灾害研究成果相对匮乏, 区域地质灾害风险评价接近空白, 难以满足地方政府减灾防灾和应急管理的需求。本文以西藏自治区那曲市班戈县为研究区域, 利用2020年、2021年的高分一号、高分二号遥感影像数据及GIS空间分析技术, 基本查明了班戈县2.8×104 km2范围内地质灾害的数量、类型、规模、发育特征及分布规律, 并采用"信息量法"较为系统地进行了全县地质灾害1:50 000的风险评价, 对全县地质灾害的易发性、危险性、易损性及风险性进行了综合性的评价。研究表明, 班戈县由于位于青藏高原台面, 地广人稀, 地质灾害风险程度总体不高, 承灾体主要分布在城镇周边, 因此98%的地区为低风险区, 中、高风险区主要集中分布在城镇周边; 此评价结果为班戈县的地质灾害减灾防灾、风险管控等提供科学依据。     

Methods for the estimation of loss of life due to floods: a literature review and a proposal for a new method

This article deals with methods for the estimation of loss of life due to flooding. These methods can be used to assess the flood risks and to identify mitigation strategies. The first part of this article contains a comprehensive review of existing literature. Methods have been developed for different types of floods in different regions. In general these methods relate the loss of life in the flooded area to the flood characteristics and the possibilities for evacuation and shelter. An evaluation showed that many of the existing methods do not take into account all of the most relevant determinants of loss of life and that they are often to a limited extent based on empirical data of historical flood events. In the second part of the article, a new method is proposed for the estimation of loss of life caused by the flooding of low-lying areas protected by flood defences. An estimate of the loss of life due to a flood event can be given based on: (1) information regarding the flood characteristics, (2) an analysis of the exposed population and evacuation, and (3) an estimate of the mortality amongst the exposed population. By analysing empirical information from historical floods, new mortality functions have been developed. These relate the mortality amongst the exposed population to the flood characteristics. Comparison of the outcomes of the proposed method with information from historical flood events shows that it gives an accurate approximation of the number of observed fatalities during these events. The method is applied to assess the consequences for a large-scale flooding of the area of South Holland, in the Netherlands. It is estimated that the analysed coastal flood scenario can lead to approximately 3,200 fatalities in this area.

Geological and hydrogeological environment in Shanghai with geohazards to construction and maintenance of infrastructures

Shanghai Administrative Region (SAR) is located on the deltaic deposit of the Yangtze River. The bed rock under SAR is generally buried in the depth of 200 m to 300 m except for several massifs, where the bed rock is exposed to the ground surface. The Quaternary deposit in Shanghai is soft sediment. The variation of palaeoclimate influenced the sea level and resulted in a very complicated sedimentary environment. The Quaternary deposit in SAR is composed of an alternated multi-aquifer-aquitard system (MAAS). The groundwater system is composed of one artesian aquifer and five confined aquifer layers with very high groundwater pressure head. The MAAS was formed mainly within the warm geological era updated to 2.6 million years ago. Between two aquifers, there is an aquitard which is composed of soft clayey soil formed mainly within the cold era. The aquitards are composed of very soft clayey silt with very high compressibility and humus content. The humus material was transformed into methane gas under a long-term geological process. With the development of economy, the infrastructures were (or are being) constructed in the top shallow soft clayey deposit, aquifer I and aquifer II. In SAR, the following geohazards occurred or possibly occur during the construction and maintenance of infrastructures: i) quicksand and piping hazards; ii) pumping-induced hazards and recharge-cutoff hazards; iii) long-term settlement due to the seasonal fluctuation of groundwater level; and iv) geohazards of methane gas.     

自然灾害脆弱性曲线研究进展

在全球变化与全球化背景下自然灾害风险逐年增大,灾害评估就成为风险防范的重要基础。灾害评估包括灾情估算与风险评估2个方面,而脆弱性分析是把灾害与风险研究紧密联系起来的重要桥梁。脆弱性曲线作为定量精确评估承灾体脆弱性的方法,近年来在多领域被广泛运用,成为灾情估算、风险定量分析以及风险地图编制的关键环节。从致灾因子角度综述脆弱性曲线的研究进展,重点阐述基于灾情数据、已有曲线、调查和模型的脆弱性曲线构建。研究表明脆弱性曲线构建由单曲线向多曲线库、单一参数向综合参数、单一方法向多领域综合应用发展,具有综合化和精细化的趋势。进一步开展多领域、多方法综合脆弱性曲线研究,对灾损快速评估及风险评价,防灾减灾具有重要意义。     

A conceptual framework for quantitative estimation of physical vulnerability to landslides

The paper illustrates a method for scenario-based, quantitative estimation of physical vulnerability of the built environment to landslides. The rationale and main features of the procedure are presented in the context of quantitative risk estimation. Vulnerability is defined quantitatively as a function of landslide intensity and the susceptibility of vulnerable elements. Reference terminology is presented and discussed. Models for the quantification of intensity and susceptibility for some categories of elements at risk such as structures and persons are proposed. An example application is illustrated.     

A comparative study of the main factors controlling geohazards induced by 10 strong earthquakes in Western China since the Wenchuan earthquake in 2008

Determining the main controlling factors of earthquake-triggered geohazards is a prerequisite for studying earthquake geohazards and post-disaster emergency response. By studying these factors, the geomorphic and geological factors controlling the nature, condition, and distribution of earthquake-induced geohazards can be analyzed. Such insights facilitate earthquake disaster prediction and emergency response planning.The authors combined field investigations and spatial data analysis to examine...     

我国区域地质灾害评价的现状及问题

滑坡等地质灾害的区域评价对制定区域地质灾害防治规划、指导国土资源的合理开发和地质环境的妥善保护具有重要意义,也是地质灾害风险评价与风险管理的基础。本文以滑坡灾种为典型,总结了近10年来中国在这一领域所开展的工作和所取得的进展。在此基础上,重点指出了工作中所暴露出来的一些问题和这些问题产生的原因。针对这些问题,提出了应该注意的方面和有关的对策措施。     

Mapping susceptibility of rainfall-triggered shallow landslides using a probabilistic approach

To prepare a landslide susceptibility map is essential to identify hazardous regions, construct appropriate mitigation facilities, and plan emergency measures for a region prone to landslides triggered by rainfall. The conventional mapping methods require much information about past landslides records and contributing terrace and rainfall. They also rely heavily on the quantity and quality of accessible information and subjectively of the map builder. This paper contributes to a systematic and quantitative assessment of mapping landslide hazards over a region. Geographical Information System is implemented to retrieve relevant parameters from data layers, including the spatial distribution of transient fluid pressures, which is estimated using the TRIGRS program. The factor of safety of each pixel in the study region is calculated analytically. Monte Carlo simulation of random variables is conducted to process the estimation of fluid pressure and factor of safety for multiple times. The failure probability of each pixel is thus estimated. These procedures of mapping landslide potential are demonstrated in a case history. The analysis results reveal a positive correlation between landslide probability and accumulated rainfall. This approach gives simulation results compared to field records. The location and size of actual landslide are well predicted. An explanation for some of the inconsistencies is also provided to emphasize the importance of site information on the accuracy of mapping results.     

Hierarchical probabilistic regionalization of volcanism for Sengan region,Japan

A 1 km square regular grid system created on the Universal Transverse Mercator zone 54 projected coordinate system is used to work with volcanism related data for Sengan region. The following geologic variables were determined as the most important for identifying volcanism: geothermal gradient, groundwater temperature, heat discharge, groundwater pH value, presence of volcanic rocks and presence of hydrothermal alteration. Data available for each of these important geologic variables were used to perform directional variogram modeling and kriging to estimate geologic variable vectors at each of the 23949 centers of the chosen 1 km cell grid system. Cluster analysis was performed on the 23949 complete variable vectors to classify each center of 1 km cell into one of five different statistically homogeneous groups with respect to potential volcanism spanning from lowest possible volcanism to highest possible volcanism with increasing group number. A discriminant analysis incorporating Bayes’ theorem was performed to construct maps showing the probability of group membership for each of the volcanism groups. The said maps showed good comparisons with the recorded locations of volcanism within the Sengan region. No volcanic data were found to exist in the group 1 region. The high probability areas within group 1 have the chance of being the no volcanism region. Entropy of classification is calculated to assess the uncertainty of the allocation process of each 1 km cell center location based on the calculated probabilities. The recorded volcanism data are also plotted on the entropy map to examine the uncertainty level of the estimations at the locations where volcanism exists. The volcanic data cell locations that are in the high volcanism regions (groups 4 and 5) showed relatively low mapping estimation uncertainty. On the other hand, the volcanic data cell locations that are in the low volcanism region (group 2) showed relatively high mapping estimation uncertainty. The volcanic data cell locations that are in the medium volcanism region (group 3) showed relatively moderate mapping estimation uncertainty. Areas of high uncertainty provide locations where additional site characterization resources can be spent most effectively. The new data collected can be added to the existing database to perform future regionalized mapping and reduce the uncertainty level of the existing estimations.     

Characteristics and temporal-spatial distribution of geohazards in western Sichuan

Xinqiao Gully is located in the area of the 2008 Wenchuan M_s 8.0 earthquake in Sichuan province, China. Based on the investigation of the 2023 “6-26” Xinqiao Gully debris flow event, this study assessed the effectiveness of the debris flow control project and evaluated the debris flow hazards. Through field investigation and numerical simulation methods, the indicators of flow intensity reduction rate and storage capacity fullness were proposed to quantify the effectiveness of the engineering measures in the debris flow event. The simulation results show that the debris flow control project reduced the flow intensity by 41.05% to 64.61%. The storage capacity of the dam decreases gradually from upstream to the mouth of the gully, thus effectively intercepting and controlling the debris flow. By evaluating the debris flow of different recurrence intervals, further measures are recommended for managing debris flow events.     

海洋地质灾害原位监测技术研究进展

海洋地质灾害对沿海城市人口和海洋经济发展构成重大威胁。海岸港口航道、海底管线光缆、海洋平台基础等工程建设规模的扩大,意味着海洋地质灾害风险进一步提高。海底火山爆发、海啸等大规模但不常见的灾害事件吸引了大多数公众关注和媒体报道,并促使政策调整以防范化解灾害风险。然而,海底气体喷溢、海底滑坡等小规模但更频繁的原生灾害事件,会产生严重的局部影响,并且极易转变为灾害链导致灾害事件恶化,但社会公众在很大程度上没有足够重视此类灾害风险。迄今为止,大多数海洋地质灾害的特征都可以被探测识别,但依靠现有的技术却很难有效监测。海洋地质灾害的原位监测需要更加严苛的技术能力,特别是突发性海洋地质灾害的原位监测难度较大。综述首先介绍了海洋地质灾害原位监测的意义以及技术发展的挑战,然后对海洋地质灾害的监测要素进行总结探讨,重点阐述海洋地质灾害监测技术装备的应用情况,并对海洋地质灾害的风险评估和灾害预警进行分析探讨,最后对海洋地质灾害原位监测技术及其应用作了总结和展望。综述旨在分析总结海洋地质灾害类型的监测技术装备及其应用中涉及的一些核心技术和急需解决的关键问题,以期为该项技术发展和应用提供借鉴。     

Probabilistic evaluation of observed earthquake damage data in Turkey

Empirical, theoretical or hybrid methods can be used for the vulnerability analysis of structures to evaluate the seismic damage data and to obtain probability damage matrices. The information on observed structural damage after earthquakes has critical importance to drive empirical vulnerability methods. The purpose of this paper is to evaluate the damage distributions based on the data observed in Erzincan-1992, Dinar-1995 and Kocaeli-1999 earthquakes in Turkey utilizing two probability models—Modified Binomial Distribution (MBiD) and Modified Beta Distribution (MBeD). Based on these analyses, it was possible (a) to compare the advantages and limitations of the two probability models with respect to their capabilities in modelling the observed damage distributions; (b) to evaluate the damage assessment for reinforced concrete and masonry buildings in Turkey based on these models; (c) to model the damage distribution of different sub-groups such as buildings with different number of storeys or soil conditions according to the both models. The results indicate that (a) MBeD is more suitable than the MBiD to model the observed damage data for both reinforced concrete and masonry buildings in Turkey; (b) the sub-groups with lower number of stories are located in the lower intensity levels, while the sub-groups with higher number of stories depending on local site condition are concentrated in the higher intensity levels, thus site conditions should also be considered in the assessment of the intensity levels; (c) the detailed local models decrease the uncertainties of loss estimation since the damage distribution of sub-groups can be more accurately modelled compared to the general damage distribution models.     

Using GIS and statistics to study influences of geology on probability features of surface soil geochemistry in Northern Ireland

The probability features of non-normality and non-lognormality are widely observed in geochemistry due to the influences of multiple factors that are difficult to quantify and model. In Northern Ireland, the pseudo-total concentrations of 14 elements (Ca, Cd, Co, Cr, Cu, Fe, K, Mg, Mn, Na, Ni, P, Pb and Zn) from 6138 topsoils were measured, and GIS mapping showed that the spatial distribution of these data were in line with the spatial distribution of geology in the area. Investigations into the influences of geology on the concentration data and their probability features were carried out using GIS and statistics in this study. The whole raw data sets for each element were positively skewed and none of them followed either normal or lognormal distributions. Logarithmic transformation was found to have “over-transformed” most of the data sets, changing their skewness from positive to negative values. When soil samples were classified by rock type using a GIS overlay function, obvious differences were observed in the chemical concentrations of soils derived from different rock types. Soils in basalt areas displayed the highest concentrations for most elements under study (Ca, Co, Cr, Cu, Fe, Mg, Mn, Na, Ni, P and Zn) but the lowest concentrations for K, while the highest levels for Cd and Pb occurred in the shale areas. Classifying soils by rock type produced more normally distributed data sets, especially for the igneous rock areas. To restrain the influence of soil type and land cover, samples from both gleys and pastures were extracted via a GIS and it was found the data sets then showed generally greater tendencies towards normality. However, many of the data sets would still not pass a test for normality unless the sample size was small (e.g. of the order of a couple of hundreds). Geology, soil type, land cover and sample size all played important roles in determining soil chemical concentrations and their probability features. However, the influences from other factors were still evident. Attempts made in this study show that it remains a challenging task in geochemistry to separate all the factors and to model their influence at the regional scale.     

Resilient capacity assessment for geological failure areas: examples from communities affected by debris flow disaster

This study establishes a novel method for assessing the community resilient capacity of debris flow disasters with appropriate parameters, such as responding, monitoring and communication capabilities. This study adopts eight communities in Taiwan, namely Nangang, Tongfu, Jhongyang, Laiyuan, Chingfu, Sinsheng, Shangan and Jyunkeng, as examples. First, the Analytic Hierarchy Process was applied to establish the framework of the community resiliency capacity, including the community’s resources for disaster resilience and resident capabilities. The community’s resources for disaster resilience are identified by surveying the community leaders via checklists. Resident capabilities are determined using questionnaires. The community resilient capacity refers to the sum of the results from these two investigations. The two investigations have similar weights, indicating that they are equally significant when evaluating community resilient capacity. Second, FLO-2D software is utilized for hazard analysis by simulation results of deposited areas for debris flows, and then these areas were categorized according to hazard degrees. Finally, the vulnerability of communities is classified based on the land use type. In summary, the values of capacity, hazard and vulnerability are integrated to determine the risk of debris flow for each community. A risk map is then generated.     

以标贯试验为依据的砂土液化确定性及概率判别法

核电厂址非基岩场地的地基液化问题是核电厂选址的关键问题,亟需建立核电厂址地基液化判别方法。回顾了以标贯试验和地表峰值加速度为依据的砂土液化判别方法的演化历史,依据Idriss-Boulanger确定液化临界曲线的基本方法,提出了确定液化临界曲线的基本原则,分别依据美国液化数据库、中国抗震规范液化判别式所用的液化数据及综合两者的液化数据资料,给出了相应的液化临界曲线,验证了液化临界曲线的位置对不同的细粒含量、有效上覆压力、现场试验方法的液化数据的合理性,分析了测量或估计土层循环应力比和修正标贯击数各种因素的不确定性对液化临界曲线的敏感性,结果表明：所提的液化临界曲线不易受各种因素的影响。利用Monte Carlo模拟、加权最大似然法和加权经验概率法,给出了液化临界曲线的名义抗液化安全系数与液化概率的经验关系式及概率等值线,并对核电厂Ⅰ类、Ⅱ类和Ⅲ类抗震物项地基,给出了相应的液化临界曲线。     

Comparative Analysis of Risk Assessment of Landslides and Debris Flows of China in 2000 and 2010

Landslides and debris flows occurr in China frequently and cause disastrous losses of life and property. The risk assessment of landslides and debris flows and their spatial variations were comparatively analyzed in this paper, which has great significance for disaster prevention. This article selected 1 km×1 km grid as the assessment unit and with support of GIS technique, analyzed landslide and debris-flow risk distribution and their spatial variations from 2000 to 2010. The research results indicated that the spatial distribution of risk classes in 2000 and 2010 was obviously discrepant. Overall, taking the Heihe-Tengchong population density line as the boundary, the west of the line is mainly low risk area; the east of the line is mainly high risk area. Compared with the risk of 2000, the risk values of 2010 increased, with the high risk area and low risk area enlarged, moderate risk area reduced. The moderate risk area is the most unstable and sensitive risk area, and its risk class variation is significant. However, China is not a region with the high risk of landslide and debris-flow hazard at present. In the following next 10 years, the risk of landslides and debris flows in China will continue to increase.     

A framework for economic loss estimation due to seismic transportation network disruption: a spatial computable general equilibrium approach

This paper presents a framework for assessing the economic impact of disruption in transportation that can relate the physical damage to transportation networks to economic losses. A spatial computable general equilibrium (SCGE) model is formulated and then integrated with a transportation model that can estimate the traffic volumes of freight and passengers. Economic equilibrium under a disruption in the transportation network is computed subject to the condition that the adjustment of labor and capital inputs is restricted; the model reflects slow adjustment of these linked to the state of recovery. As a case study, the model reviews the large Niigata-Chuetsu earthquake of 2004. Considering the damage to the transportation infrastructure, the model indicates the extent of the economic losses arising from the earthquake distributed over regions as a consequence of the intra- and interregional trade in a regional economy. The results show that 20% of the indirect losses occur in the Niigata region directly affected by the earthquake, whereas 40% of the total losses are experienced in the Kanto region and non-negligible losses reach rather remote zones of the country such as Okinawa.     

Genetic algorithms in probabilistic finite element analysis of geotechnical problems

In application to numerical analysis of geotechnical problems, the limit-state surface is usually not known in any closed form. The probability of failure can be assessed via the so-called reliability index. A minimization problem can naturally be formed with an implicit equality constraint defined as the limit-state function and optimization methods can be used for such problems. In this paper, a genetic algorithm is proposed and incorporated into a displacement finite element method to find the Hasofer–Lind reliability index. The probabilistic finite element method is then used to analyse the reliability of classical geotechnical systems. The performance of the genetic algorithm (GA) is compared with simpler probability methods such as the first-order-second-moment Taylor series method. The comparison shows that the GA can produce the results fairly quickly and is applicable to evaluation of the failure performance of geotechnical problems involving a large number of decision variables.