Recent climate trends on the northern slopes of the Tianshan Mountains, Xinjiang, China

In arid regions, mountains fulfill important ecological and economic functions for the surrounding lowlands. In the scenario of global warming, mountain ecosystems change rapidly, especially in the arid region of northwestern China. This paper provides an assessment of the changes in temperature and precipitation in the historical records of climate on the northern slopes of the eastern Tianshan Mountains. A Mann-Kendall nonparametric trend and Sen＇s tests are employed to analyze the interannual changes and innerannual variability in temperature and precipitatiofi in the regions of low to high altitude. The present study finds that the largest increases in annual temperature are observed at stations in the low altitude regions. The significant increasing trends in temperature tend to occur mainly in late winter and early spring at stations from middle to high altitude, but in summer and autumn at stations of low altitudes. The increasing trends in annual precipitation are found from the middle to high altitude areas, but decreasing trends are found in the low altitude areas. The significant increasing trends in precipitation occur mostly in winter and earlier spring at stations from the middle to high altitudes, while the increasing and decreasing trend coexists at stations of low altitude with most of the significant trend changes occurring in March, June and August.     

Effect of altitude and latitude on surface air temperature across the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

The correlation between mean surface air temperature and altitude is analyzed in this paper based on the annual and monthly mean surface air temperature data from 106 weather stations over the period 1961–2003 across the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. The results show that temperature variations not only depend on altitude but also latitude, and there is a gradual decrease in temperature with the increasing altitude and latitude. The overall trend for the vertical temperature lapse rate for the whole plateau is approximately linear. Three methods, namely multivariate composite analysis, simple correlation and traditional stepwise regression, were applied to analyze these three correlations. The results assessed with the first method are well matched to those with the latter two methods. The apparent mean annual near-surface lapse rate is −4.8 °C /km and the latitudinal effect is −0.87 °C /^olatitude. In summer, the altitude influences the temperature variations more significantly with a July lapse rate of -4.3°C /km and the effect of latitude is only −0.28°C /^olatitude. In winter, the reverse happens. The temperature decrease is mainly due to the increase in latitude. The mean January lapse rate is −5.0°C /km, while the effect of latitude is −1.51°C /^olatitude. Comparative analysis for pairs of adjacent stations shows that at a small spatial scale the difference in altitude is the dominant factor affecting differences in mean annual near-surface air temperature, aided to some extent by differences of latitude. In contrast, the lapse rate in a small area is greater than the overall mean value for the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (5 to 13°C /km). An increasing trend has been detected for the surface lapse rate with increases in altitude. The temperature difference has obvious seasonal variations, and the trends for the southern group of stations (south of 33° latitude) and for the more northerly group are opposite, mainly because of the differences in seasonal variation at low altitudes. For yearly changes, the temperature for high-altitude stations occurs earlier clearly. Temperature datasets at high altitude stations are well-correlated, and those in Nanjing were lagged for 1 year but less for contemporaneous correlations. The slope of linear trendline of temperature change for available years is clearly related to altitude, and the amplitude of temperature variation is enlarged by high altitude. The change effect in near-surface lapse rate at the varying altitude is approximately 1.0°C /km on the rate of warming over a hundred-year period.     

Impacts of global warming on patterns of temperature change in China

Global climate change has a wide range of impacts, and this paper presents an investigation on how global warming has changed the relationship between air temperature and latitude ＆ altitude using the meteorological data obtained from 160 stations in China. The investigation indicates that there are very distinct seasonal differences in patterns of temperature variation as a function of latitude and altitude： a very significant latitude effect in winter and a very significant altitude effect in summer. However, with global warming, the latitude effect in winter is weakening and the altitude effect in summer is strengthening. This pattern of change in the relationship between temperature and latitude ＆ altitude is helpful in efforts to reconstruct and explain the past temperature patterns and variations.     

Spatiotemporal variability of precipitation during 1961–2014 across the Mongolian Plateau

Precipitation is the dominant factor that controls vegetation growth and land-use practices in the arid and semiarid Mongolian Plateau(MP), so the spatiotemporal heterogeneity of precipitation change has been an important scientific question in the region. This study investigated the spatiotemporal characteristics of annual and seasonal precipitation across the entire MP based on monthly precipitation data from 136 meteorological stations during 1961–2014 by using a modified Mann–Kendall test, Sen's slope, Morlet Wavelet Transform, and geostatistical methods. Results show the following: 1) Annual precipitation decreased slightly from 1961 to 2014.Stations with positive and negative trends were 41.9%and 58.1%, respectively. Significant positive trends were mainly in the southwestern and northeastern regions of the plateau, whereas significant negative trends were in the northern and southeastern regions.2) Precipitation decreased at rates of-5.65 and-0.41 mm/decade in summer and autumn, respectively, but increased at 1.91 and 0.51 mm/decade in spring and winter. The contribution of spring and winter precipitation to the annual amount increased significantly, but that of summer precipitation decreased significantly. 3) A large majority of stations(80.2%) showed decreasing trends in summer,whereas 89.7% and 83.1% of stations showed increasing trends in spring and winter. The spatial distribution of trend magnitude in seasonal precipitation amount was strongly heterogeneous. 4)By climatic zones, precipitation increased in humid and arid zones, but decreased in a semiarid zone. On the whole, the MP experienced a drying trend, with significant regional differentiation and seasonal variations.     

Trends of sea surface wind energy over the South China Sea

Studies on climate change typically consider temperature and precipitation over extended periods but less so the wind.We used the Cross-Calibrated Multi-Platform(CCMP)24-year wind field data set to investigate the trends of wind energy over the South China Sea during 1988-2011.The results reveal a clear trend of increase in wind power density for each of three base statistics(i.e.,mean,90 th percentile and 99 th percentile)in all seasons and for annual means.The trends of wind power density showed obvious temporal and spatial variations.The magnitude of the trends was greatest in winter,intermediate in spring,and smallest in summer and autumn.A greater trend of increase was found in the northern areas of the South China Sea than in southern parts.The magnitude of the annual and seasonal trends over the South China Sea was larger in extreme high events(i.e.,90~(th) and 99~(th) percentiles)compared to the mean conditions.Sea surface temperature showed a negative correlation with the variability of wind power density over the majority of the South China Sea in all seasons and annual means,except for winter(41.7%).     

Climate change and its effects on runoff of Kaidu River,Xinjiang, China: A multiple time-scale analysis

This paper applied an integrated method combining grey relation analysis, wavelet analysis and statistical analysis to study climate change and its effects on runoff of the Kaidu River at multi-time scales. Maj or findings are as follows： 1） Climatic factors were ranked in the order of importance to annual runoff as average annual temperature, average temperature in autumn, average temperature in winter, annual precipitation, precipitation in flood season, av- erage temperature in summer, and average temperature in spring. The average annual temperature and annual precipitation were selected as the two representative factors that impact the annual runoff. 2） From the 32-year time scale, the annual runoff and the average annual temperature presented a significantly rising trend, whereas the annual precipitation showed little increase over the period of 1957-2002. By changing the time scale from 32-year to 4-year, we observed nonlinear trends with increasingly obvious oscillations for annual runoff, average annual temperature, and annual precipitation. 3） The changes of the runoff and the regional climate are closely related, indicating that the runoff change is the result of the regional climate changes. With time scales ranging from 32-year, 16-year, 8-year and to 4-year, there are highly significant linear correlations between the annual runoff and the average annual temperature and the annual precipitation.     

近50年中国地表净辐射的时空变化特征分析

基于GIS空间分析技术与Mann-Kendall趋势分析方法,对中国陆地区域699个气象站点1961-2010年逐年、季平均地表净辐射进行时空变化特征分析,结果表明:(1)参数拟合后的FAO Penman修正式对模拟站点逐日地表净辐射的总体精度较高,均方根误差为27.9W.m-2,相关系数为0.85,平均相对误差为0.13;(2)全国近50年站点平均地表净辐射在年、季均呈现出较明显的下降过程,年均降幅为0.74W.m-2.10a-1,不同季节的下降幅度存在差异,夏季降幅最大;(3)逐站点分析显示全国大部分站点(59.8%)年均地表净辐射呈显著下降趋势(0.05),东部趋势变化比西部明显,夏季在地表净辐射年际变化中的贡献最大,华北、华中、华南地区的站点在春夏秋季均呈显著下降趋势。     

Influence of the Eastern Indian Ocean Warm Pool Variability on the Spring Precipitation in China

The relationship between the variability of the Eastern India Ocean Warm Pool （EIWP） and the spring precipitation in China is studied in the paper based on an analysis of the Simple Ocean Data Assimilation （SODA） Sea Surface Temperature （SST） data, the reanalysis data of monthly grid wind field at 925 hPa with a resolution of 2.5^＊ latitude and longitude from the National Center for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research （NCEP/NCAR）, and the monthly mean rainfall data from 160 observational stations in China. The results show that there is a strong correlation between the EIWP variability and the spring precipitation in China. The area, volume and intensity indices of the EIWP are negatively correlated with the spring precipitation in southwestern China, while they are positively correlated with the spring precipitation in the rest of China, especially in the northeast. For this correlation between the EIWP variability and the spring precipitation in China, it is found that the correlative relationship is mainly connected with the variations of the moisture transport by the warm air flow, which is under the influence of the EIWP variability, into the inland of China in spring. Two causative factors may influence this transport. One is the variation of the moisture transport carried by the warm air flow from the Arabian Sea influenced by the EIWP variability. The other is the variation of the equator-crossing flow （70^＊-90^＊E） influenced by the EIWP anomaly in the previous winter which exerts its effect on the moist warm air transported from the Southern Hemisphere. The position and intensity of the Western North Pacific Subtropical High （WNPSH） variability caused by EIWP variation also influence the spring precipitation in China.     

TREND OF PRECIPITATION VARIATION IN HUBEI PROVINCE SINCE THE 1960S

1INTRODUCTIONOneoftheeffectsofglobalwarmingisthatprecipita-tionhasincreasedoversomeareasintheworld,andthegaugedataofprecipitation (excludingAntarctica)showthatglobalprecipitationhasincreasedslightlybyabout9mmforthe20thcentury, whichwas verysmallcomparedwiththeinterannualandmul-ti-decadalvariability(NEWetal.,2001).Butregion-ally,thereexisted agreatdealofdifferences,suchasinmostpartsofAfrica, Amazon,westernSouthAmerica,theweatherhasbecomedrier,andinmostpartsofEuropeandCanada,thereexisted…     

Spatio-temporal changes of ≥ 10°C accumulated temperature in northeastern China since 1961

The objective of this study was to provide reliable basis for decision making for national food security and layout and structure adjustment of grain production in the northeastern China. The data of mean daily air temperature of 1961-2009 from 106 meteorological stations in the northeastern China were chosen in this study. Using statistical methods and isoline method, the spatio-temporal changes of various decadal ≥ 10℃ accumulated temperature and the climatic means of ≥ 10℃ accumulated temperature were studied in this paper. The results showed that 1) The geo-graphical distribution of ≥ 10℃ accumulated temperature in the northeastern China could be influenced directly by the latitude, longitude and altitude. If latitude moved one degree northward, the average decrease amplitude of the climatic means was 101.9℃ in the study area. 2) The means of decadal ≥ 10℃ accumulated temperature rose since the 1980s, and their increase amplitudes became larger in the 1990s and the 2010s obviously. Compared with those of the 1980s, ≥ 10℃ accumulated temperature increased by about 100℃ in the mountainous and plain areas in the 1990s; compared with those of the 1990s, ≥ 10℃ accumulated temperature increased by about 200℃ in the Hulun Buir High Plain and the Songnen Plain, and 100℃ in the Sanjiang Plain and the Liaohe Plain in the 2010s. 3) The means of the decadal ≥ 10℃ accumulated temperature for 106 meteorological stations in the northeastern China increased with the rate of 145.57℃/10yr in 1961-2009. 4) The climatic means of ≥ 10℃ accumulated temperature increased from 1961-1990 to 1971-2000 and 1981-2009. Compared with the climatic mean of 1971-2000, that of 1981-2009 had increased by above 50℃ in most of the study area, even up to 156℃. Compared with the climatic mean of 1961-1990, that of 1981-2009 increased by above 100℃ in most parts of the study area, even up to 200℃. 5) The maximum northward shift, eastward and westward extension amplitudes of 3100℃, 3300℃ and 3500℃ isolines were larger among all isoli-nes for the climatic means of the three phases. Compared with the positions of the isolines of 1961-1990, those ampli-tudes of 3100℃ isoline of 1981-2009 were 145 km, 109 km and 64 km, respectively; those of 3300℃ isoline were 154 km, 54 km and 64 km, respectively; and the maximum northward shift of 3500℃ isoline was about 100 km.     

四川巴中地区38年来气候变化特征分析

利用1971—2008年巴中地区4个站点的地面常规观测资料和滑动平均、MK法及MHF小波分析等统计诊断方法,分析了该地区降水和温度的年际、年代际的气候变化特征。结果表明：巴中地区的年均气温总体上表现出暖→冷→暖3个阶段,并呈现出8年的准周期变化特征;冬春气温的年代际变化显示出暖→冷→暖3个阶段性特征,而夏秋气温的年代际变化则显示出暖→冷→暖→冷4个阶段性特征。巴中地区的年降水量呈现出减少的趋势,递减率为13．813mm／10年;春季降水量低于全国的春季平均水平,夏、秋季平均降水量均高于全国的平均水平,且占到全年降水量的80％以上。巴中地区的年降水量存在较为显著的2年和6年的准周期变化,降水量增加和减少的突变较多显示出其复杂性。春、夏、秋三季的降水量有随温度升高而下降的趋势,而冬季的降水量有随温度的升高先增多后减少的趋势。巴中气候特征的分析对巴中农业区划和生产安排有其重要意义。     

青藏高原植被变化特征及其对气候变化的影响

利用1982-2001年美国国家航天航空局(NASA)的归一化植被指数(NDVI)资料以及55个青藏高原地区气象台站实测的最高气温、最低气温、平均气温和降水资料,初步分析了青藏高原地区各季节植被变化特征及其对气候变化的影响,通过分析发现,各季节青藏高原地区NDVI均以增长为主.特别是高原南部、北部和西部等地区增加明显,高原中东部地区植被有所减少.通过相关分析和台站概率相关分析发现,高原冬季和春季NDVI与后期春季和夏季的最高气温、最低气温、平均气温和降水有较好的正相关关系,但有的表现在相关系数比较显著,有的表现为概率相关较明显.     

四川巴中地区38年来气候变化特征分析

利用1971—2008年巴中地区4个站点的地面常规观测资料和滑动平均、MK法及MHF小波分析等统计诊断方法,分析了该地区降水和温度的年际、年代际的气候变化特征。结果表明：巴中地区的年均气温总体上表现出暖→冷→暖3个阶段,并呈现出8年的准周期变化特征;冬春气温的年代际变化显示出暖→冷→暖3个阶段性特征,而夏秋气温的年代际变化则显示出暖→冷→暖→冷4个阶段性特征。巴中地区的年降水量呈现出减少的趋势,递减率为13．813mm／10年;春季降水量低于全国的春季平均水平,夏、秋季平均降水量均高于全国的平均水平,且占到全年降水量的80％以上。巴中地区的年降水量存在较为显著的2年和6年的准周期变化,降水量增加和减少的突变较多显示出其复杂性。春、夏、秋三季的降水量有随温度升高而下降的趋势,而冬季的降水量有随温度的升高先增多后减少的趋势。巴中气候特征的分析对巴中农业区划和生产安排有其重要意义。     

基于地基GPS的新疆地区大气可降水量时空分布特征

利用中国大陆构造环境监测网络的GPS观测资料,结合ERA-Interim模型气压和温度,解算2016年新疆地区GPS测站的大气可降水量,分析该地区大气可降水量的空间分布和季节性变化。结果表明:1)GPS和探空观测获取的大气可降水量具有较好的一致性,均方根误差约为2.7mm;2)新疆地区全年平均大气可降水量在7.0～13.0mm之间,且海拔每升高1km,其含量减少约1.4mm,当测站海拔相近时,大气可降水量随纬度的升高而减少;3)大气可降水量季节性变化明显,夏季为12.0～23.2mm,冬季为1.4～5.5mm,春、秋季大气可降水量差异不大且变化范围介于夏、冬季之间。     

Geographical Variation and Influencing Factors of Spartina alterniflora Expansion Rate in Coastal China

Biological invasion poses a huge threat to ecological security.Spartina alterniflora was introduced into China in 1979,and its arrival corresponded with negative effects on native ecosystems.To explore geographical variation of its expansion rate in coastal China,we selected 43 S.alterniflora sites from Tianjin Coastal New Area to Beihai.The area expansion rate,expansion rate paralleling and vertical to the shoreline were analysed based on Landsat images and field survey in 2015.Simple Ocean Data Assimilation(SODA)and climate data were collected to statistically analyse the influential factors of expansion rate.Results showed that significant difference of S.alterniflora area expansion rate among different latitude zones(P<0.01),increasing from 6.08%at southern(21°N–23°N)to 19.87% in Bohai Bay(37°N–39°N)along latitude gradient.There was a significant difference in expansion rate vertical to shoreline in different latitude zones(P<0.01)with the largest occurring in Bohai Bay(256m/yr,37°N–39°N),and showed an decreasing tendency gradually from north to south.No significant difference and latitudinal clines in expansion rate paralleling to shoreline were observed.Expansion rate had significant negative correlation with mean seawater temperature,the lowest seawater temperature,current zonal velocity and meridional velocity and presented a reducing trend as these biotic factors increased;however,they were not significantly correlated with the highest seawater temperature and mean seawater salinity.We identified significant correlations between expansion rate and annual mean temperature,the lowest temperature in January and annual precipitation,but there was little correlation with annual diurnal difference in temperature and the highest temperature in July.The rapid expansion rate in high-latitude China demonstrated a higher risk of potential invasion in the north;dynamic monitoring and control management should be established as soon as possible.     

The wet-dry changes in recent 40 years in taklimakan area

IINTRODUCTIONAlongwiththePetroleumexploitationofTarimBasin,consideringaboutwaterresources,peoplepaidmuchattentiontothestudyofthemodernclimatechangeinTaklimakanarea.SomePeoplehaddonemanalySeSwiththemeteorologicaldatainthearea(Yang,1992;Jietal.,1992;Zheng,1991;Xue,1989;Li,1989;Wenetal.,1988).BasedontheO~ionaldstaofprecipitationinrecent40years,thisPaperCarefullyanalyZedthewet-drychangeinrecentseveraldeCadesinTaklilnakanareaanditsneighdringareas(thenorthernXinjiang,QinghaiandGansuPro…     

Spatio-temporal pattern of net primary productivity in Hengduan Mountains area,China: impacts of climate change and human activities

Net primary productivity(NPP), a metric used to define and identify changes in plant communities, is greatly affected by climate change, human activities and other factors. Here, we used the Carnegie-Ames-Stanford Approach(CASA) model to estimate the NPP of plant communities in Hengduan Mountains area of China, and to explore the relationship between NPP and altitude in this region. We examined the mechanisms underlying vegetation growth responses to climate change and quantitatively assessed the effects of ecological protection measures by partitioning the contributions of climate change and human activities to NPP changes. The results demonstrated that: 1) the average total and annual NPP values over the years were 209.15 Tg C and 468.06 g C/(m2·yr), respectively. Their trend increasingly fluctuated, with spatial distribution strongly linked to altitude(i.e., lower and higher NPP in high altitude and low altitude areas, respectively) and 2400 m represented the marginal altitude for vegetation differentiation; 2) areas where climate was the main factor affecting NPP accounted for 18.2% of the total research area, whereas human activities were the primary factor influencing NPP in 81.8% of the total research area, which indicated that human activity was the main force driving changes in NPP. Areas where climatic factors(i.e., temperature and precipitation) were the main driving factors occupied 13.6%(temperature) and 6.0%(precipitation) of the total research area, respectively. Therefore, the effect of temperature on NPP changes was stronger than that of precipitation; and 3) the majority of NPP residuals from 2001 to 2014 were positive, with human activities playing an active role in determining regional vegetation growth, possibly due to the return of farmland back to forest and natural forest protection. However, this positive trend is decreasing. This clearly shows the periodical nature of ecological projects and a lack of long-term effectiveness.     

Trends in temperature and precipitation extremes over Circum-Bohai-Sea region, China

Trends in temperature and precipitation extremes from 1961 to 2008 have been investigated over Circum-Bohai-Sea region,China using daily temperature and precipitation data of 63 meteorological stations.The re-sults show that at most stations,there is a significant increase in the annual frequency of warm days and warm nights,as well as a significant decrease in the annual frequency of cold days,cold nights,frost days,and annual diurnal temperature range(DTR).Their regional averaged changes are 2.06 d/10yr,3.95 d/10yr,-1.88 d/10yr,-4.27 d/10yr,-4.21 d/10yr and-0.20℃/10yr,respectively.Seasonal changes display similar patterns to the annual results,but there is a large seasonal difference.A significant warming trend is detected at both annual and seasonal scales,which is more contributed by changes of indices defined by daily minimum temperature than those defined by daily maximum tem-perature.For precipitation indices,the regional annual extreme precipitation displays a weak decrease in terms of magnitude and frequency,i.e.extreme precipitation days(RD95p),intensity(RINTEN),proportion(RPROP) and maximum consecutive wet days(CWD),but a slight increase in the maximum consecutive dry days(CDD),which are consistent with changes of annual total precipitation(PRCPTOT).Seasonally,PRCPTOT and RD95p both exhibit an increase in spring and a decrease in other seasons with the largest decrease in summer,but generally not significant.In summary,this study shows a pronounced warming tendency at the less rainy period over Circum-Bohai-Sea region,which may affect regional economic development and ecological protection to some extent.     

中国耕地变化区的气候背景对比分析

研究我国耕地变化区的气候背景,对于了解耕地资源的生产能力,评价耕地占补平衡政策的实施效果,实现耕地资源保护和粮食安全等具有重要意义。本文在分析全国耕地空间变化的基础上,从年平均气温、年降水量和日照时数三个方面,研究耕地增加区和减少区的气候背景,并将其进行比较和分析,以期为国家保护耕地资源和发展农业生产等提供建议。研究结果表明,20世纪80年代末至2008年4个时段,耕地减少区比耕地增加区的年平均气温高0.45~1.05℃,年降水量高56.77~79.59mm,年日照时数少45.80~98.83h。耕地显著减少区比耕地显著增加区的年平均气温高0.81~1.85℃,年降水量高85.69~305.26mm,年日照时数少86.96~207.85h。在四个时段中,我国耕地重心逐渐北移且海拔升高。若海拔高度不变,耕地增加区比耕地减少区北移0.5-1个纬度,耕地显著增加区比耕地显著减少区北移1-2个纬度;若纬度不变,耕地增加区比耕地减少区,海拔升高100~200m,耕地显著增加区比耕地显著减少区,海拔升高150~350m。随年份增加,耕地增加区和显著增加区与耕地减少区和显著减少区在水分条件上的差别越来越大。这些结论对于研究我国粮食生产能力、评价耕地占补平衡、调整产业布局等具有重要意义。     

Changes of temperature and precipitation extremes in Hengduan Mountains, Qinghai-Tibet Plateau in 1961–2008

Variations and trends in extreme climate events are more sensitive to climate change than the mean values,and so have received much attention.In this study,twelve indices of temperature extremes and 11 indices of precipitation extremes at 32 meteorological stations in Hengduan Mountains were examined for the period 1961-2008.The results reveal statistically significant increases in the temperature of the warmest and coldest nights and in the frequencies of extreme warm days and nights.Decreases of the diurnal temperature range and the numbers of frost days and ice days are statistically significant.Regional averages of growing season length also display the trends consistent and significant with warming.At a large proportion of the stations,patterns of temperature extremes are consistent with warming since 1961:warming trends in minimum temperature indices are greater than those relating to maximum temperature.As the center of the Shaluli Mountain,the warming magnitudes decrease from inner to outer.Changes in precipitation extremes is low:trends are difficult to detect against the larger inter-annual and decadal-scale variability of precipitation,and only the wet day precipitation and the regional trend in consecutive dry days are significant at the 0.05 level.It can be concluded that the variation of extreme precipitation events is not obvious in the Hengduan Mountains,however,the regional trends generally decrease from the south to the north.Overall,the spatial distribution of temporal changes of all extreme climate indices in the Hengduan Mountains illustrated here reflects the climatic complexity in mountainous regions.