制度变迁下农垦城镇空间演化及其动力机制研究——以湖北省五三农场为例

制度变迁是城镇空间演化的重要驱动,农垦城镇作为一类特殊且重要的城镇类型,受制度因素影响更直接、更显著。鉴于现有研究较少基于制度变迁探究农垦城镇空间演化,论文系统梳理了农场制度变迁的总体情况,并以湖北省五三农场为例,采用综合研究方法,揭示了制度变迁下农垦城镇空间演化及其动力机制。研究发现：① 农垦城镇空间演化主要体现在空间形态、空间关系和功能结构3个方面,即空间形态从缓变到剧变,空间关系从生产协作关系转为城乡关系,功能结构不断从公办到私营、从生产主导到消费主导、从单一化到多元化;② 制度变迁通过改变农场身份、利益关系和资源配置推动农垦城镇空间演化,其中农场身份变化直接影响农垦城镇空间的发展方向,利益关系变化促使农垦城镇空间产业化、市场化,资源配置变化通过改变资源配置主体、类型、尺度和速度作用于农垦城镇空间演化。通过研究,以期能更有针对性地指导农垦城镇在新时期的发展,同时也可丰富城镇空间演化的理论内涵。     

Farm size and landscape composition in relation to landscape changes in Denmark

Geografisk Tidsskrift, Danish Journal of Geography 106(2): 45–59, 2006

This paper explores relationships between farm size and landscape composition in terms of densities of uncultivated landscape elements and sizes of agricultural fields. The study is based on national agricultural registers for Denmark and on aerial photo interpretation of three study areas, representing different Danish landscape types. Results indicate significantly smaller fields and significantly higher densities of uncultivated landscape elements on small farms (<25 ha). At national level, current differences between small and large farms are to some extent caused by landscape changes between 1998 and 2004. Analyses of the study areas indicate that current differences between small and large farms mainly evolved between 1982 and 2002, while the influences of changes between 1954 and 1982 are limited. Relationships between farms size and landscape composition are independent of spatial variations in soil type and slope conditions. Consequently, attention must be paid to other parameters linked to farm size. In particular, the effects on landscape composition of part-time and hobby farming, as well as production type, must be considered.     

Determinants of crop diversity in the regions of Bangladesh (1990–2008)

The paper measures the level of crop diversity and identifies factors influencing diversification using a panel data of 17 regions of Bangladesh covering a 19 year period (1990–2008). Results revealed the trends that agricultural areas allocated to high‐yielding variety rice, spices and vegetables has increased, while areas cultivating traditional rice, minor cereals, oilseeds, pulses, jute and sugarcane has declined at variable rates across regions with significant differences. The level of crop diversity is also significantly different across regions and has decreased in 2008 from its 1990 level in most regions except Faridpur, Khulna and Sylhet. Among the determinants, an increase in the relative prices of vegetables and urea fertilizer, extension expenditure, labour stock per farm, average farm size, irrigation and a reduction in livestock per farm significantly increase crop diversity. Price policies to improve vegetable prices and investment in irrigation infrastructure and extension services are suggested to promote crop diversity in Bangladesh.     

Farm Size and Land Use Pattern Changes in Postsocialist Poland∗

The postsocialist transition resulted in widespread structural change in Polish agriculture, but fine-scale assessments of how these changes affected farming and rural landscapes are scarce. This article examines changes in farm sizes and land use patterns after the breakdown of socialism in Poland using micro-census data and satellite images. Our study area is Pyrzyce County. The analysis indicates a polarization of the farm size distribution (e.g., medium-sized farms disappeared) as well as marked changes in land use patterns (e.g., increasing field sizes and field aggregation). Interviews with farmers and stakeholders suggest that this shift can be explained by decreasing competitiveness of medium-sized farms in the emerging new agricultural value chain, which forced farmers to increase and intensify production or to downsize their farms, especially when the preference was for other occupations.     

Grassland revolutions in New Zealand: Disaggregating a national story

The grassland revolution is a national story but the intensification of New Zealand pastoral agriculture was made possible by many changes in farm practice, and application varied within New Zealand. This paper identifies aggregation issues in the narrative and explores their implications for any reassessment of the revolution. Data from six counties are analysed to illustrate some of the varied experiences across New Zealand farm districts. The paper redirects attention to local‐ and farm‐scale studies as a way to investigate the significance of the diverse drivers of pastoral productivity, their timing and effects.     

农牧交错带典型偏农区土地利用变化及其原因分析——以奈曼旗尧勒甸子村为例

中国北方农牧交错带东部农业以种植业为主。土地利用变化对农业的可持续发展具有深刻的影响。尧勒甸子村是农牧交错带典型的偏农区,50a来土地利用发生很大变化。其变化表现出明显的阶段性,20世纪80年代前后明显不同。本文主要分析了农业用地和沙漠化土地的变化,并从国家政策、土地产权制度、人口、牲畜、系统结构等方面的变化探讨了其土地利用变化的原因。     

1965年来中国对外贸易的地域差异及其格局演变

在研究近40 年(1965-2004) 全国及三大地带对外贸易总量、对外贸易密度、对外依存度变化及对外贸易区域格局演变的基础上, 进一步总结、分析我国七大经济区近40 年对外贸易总量、对外贸易密度、对外依存度变化的基本特点及其区域格局演变的基本趋势, 并总结对外贸易区域格局形成的基本成因。研究发现, 与全国和三大地带的演变趋势相似, ① 从时 间尺度看, 近40 年, 七大经济区的对外贸易发展亦呈长期增长态势, 外贸年均增长速度长期高于GDP 年均增长速度; ② 1978 年改革开放后国家发展战略、制度、政策的变革加剧推动了时间尺度上七大经济区的对外贸易发展; ③ 但从空间尺度看, 东南沿海经济区与其他经济区对外贸易的区域差异格局却没有根本改变; ④ 随着市场经济的发展, 其他六大经济区的相对地位反呈较大下降趋势。     

中国建设用地扩张对景观格局演化的影响

探索建设用地扩张对景观格局变化的影响机理是理解人类活动对生态系统功能、格局和过程变化影响机制的关键。但中国全国尺度建设用地扩张过程对景观格局演化的影响研究明显不足。基于此,突破传统行政区划单元的分析方法,以覆盖全国的10 km格网为基本单元,基于1975-2014年建成区比率数据来表征建设用地扩张水平,运用同期土地利用数据计算相应的景观指数,定量刻画了建设用地扩张及景观格局的时空演化过程,并运用空间计量经济模型定量解析了建设用地扩张过程对景观格局演化的影响效应。同时,基于全样本、不同时间点、不同规模城市和不同区域城市的对比揭示建设用地扩张过程对景观格局演化影响的时空差异性。研究结果表明：40年间建成区比率值增长了3倍,高于同期的人口城镇化增长水平,东、中和西部间呈现出显著的梯度差异性,而且差异程度逐步增加,大、中、小城市之间的差异也较为显著。1975-1990年、1990-2000年和2000-2014年3个时间段的年均增速分别为5.87%、2.32%和2.32%。景观格局总体上也经历了显著变化,优势景观类型的主导性逐步降低,景观格局趋于破碎化,复杂度增强,邻近度趋于离散,聚集度逐步降低,结合度渐高,景观多样性和均匀度均有所提高。随着建设用地扩张水平的提高,景观越来越趋于破碎化,人类活动对景观的干扰强度和频率也不断增强。例如,建设用地扩张水平每提高1%将导致景观斑块数量提高0.45%左右。但是建设用地扩张水平与景观复杂度的变化在空间上存在错位。建设用地扩张水平的提高在一定程度上使同类型斑块间的距离变近,景观聚集度出现降低趋势,景观越来越呈现多种要素的密集格局,斑块聚合和集群性增强,相应的结合度也越来越高,景观均衡化趋势和均匀分布越来越明显。同时发现,不同规模城市和不同区域的影响差异显著,除地理区位因素差异性不显著外,其他控制要素也对景观格局演化具有差别化的影响。     

农地边际化过程中农户土地利用行为变化及其对粮食生产的影响

认识农地边际化过程中农户土地利用行为的变化及其对粮食生产的影响,对正确判断中国的粮食生产形势,制订相关政策以确保粮食安全具有重要意义。基于湖北省咸宁市4县1市1区的23个村组、1252个农户家庭的调查数据,对1981年以来农户土地利用行为变化的特征及其对粮食生产的影响进行分析。结果表明：① 农户用于粮食生产的劳动力与土地面积明显下降,农户用地方式出现“省工性”变化,劳动力被农机要素替代,农业机械、化学肥料与农药等物质投入显著上升。② 主要粮食作物的劳动生产率、土地生产率与商品率分别提高了4.61%、29.69%与50.56%,但区域主要粮食作物的总产量与农户家庭平均粮食占有量却分别下降了10.49%与10.50%,区域粮食安全的保障能力出现弱化。③ 丘陵山区主要粮食作物的“三率”提高幅度高于平原地区,丘陵山区的水稻总产量与家庭占有量均略有提高,但平原地区却出现了明显下降。产粮重心在空间上出现从平原地区向丘陵山区倾斜的现象。④ 稳定主要粮食作物的用地规模,促进农户规模经营,提高土地产出效率,是应对农地边际化作用的关键。从事规模化与专业化粮食生产的农区与农户,应成为国家惠农政策与粮食安全政策重点扶持的对象。     

Is Larger Scale Better? Evidence from Rice Farming in Jianghan Plain

Small-scale household agricultural production has been in conflict with China’s agricultural modernization. In the context of vigorously promoting rural land circulation and moderate scale management nationwide, research on the relationship between farm size and scale efficiency has become increasingly important. In this paper, we use the “DEA-OLS” two stage method to analyze data from 368 surveys of rice farming households in the Jianghan Plain. The scale efficiency of rice farming was calculated, and the relationship between farm size and scale efficiency investigated. The results indicate that (1) the rice farm size is generally small in Jianghan Plain, with an average of 0.77 ha. The average scale efficiency is 0.88, and it is the main factor limiting an increase in comprehensive technical efficiency. Moreover, 88.32% of households are in the stage of increasing returns to scale. (2) There is a stable inverted “U” type relationship between rice farm size and scale efficiency. Considering characteristics of the householder, the household and land quality, the maximum scale efficiency corresponds to a household with 5 ha of rice farm. (3) Among householder characteristics, age has a significant negative influence on scale efficiency, and scale efficiency is lower for a household whose householder is engaged in non-farm work than for one whose householder is devoted to farming. As for land quality, there was a significant positive effect of irrigation on scale efficiency. Among family characteristics, the application of a machine during the seeding process increased scale efficiency by 3.07%. Therefore, we suggest that local government should actively promote rural land circulation, implement a staged-scale management subsidy, and other forms of support for the purchase of agricultural machinery and technical popularization. Increased investment in irrigation improvements and mechanical facilities and encouragement of farmers to enlarge their farm size could improve scale efficiency and farming profit and lead to the development of moderate scale management.     

风电场对草地植被生长影响分析——以内蒙古灰腾梁风电场为例

利用2000~2014年的MOD13Q1-NDVI数据,对内蒙古灰腾梁风电场及该电厂50 km缓冲区内的植被生长情况进行了分析。结合气象数据,重点探讨了风向对植被生长的影响。与2000~2008年风电场建设完成前植被生长相比,2008年后风电场运行对植被的生长产生了明显的影响,但影响范围和强度是不均匀的,结果表明：① 风电场运行对风电场区域内/外植被的影响机制是不同的,风电场区域内不利于植被的生长,而上/下风区域却有利于植被的生长;② 相对于风电场建成前,风电场建成后的2008 ~2014年缓冲区和风电场区域植被恢复比例分别上升了26.66%和13.14%,但上风区域却上升了51.83%,下风区域上升了41.07%。可见风电场上/下风区植被恢复比例,尤其是上风区植被的恢复比例要远高于其它区域;③ 距离风电场中心30~40 km的上风区很可能是受风电场影响最为明显的区域。     

世界石油探明储量分布特征与空间格局演化

石油探明储量是一个动态变化的过程,文章对1980年以来不同区域尺度,包括全球、各大区以及国家层面的石油探明储量变化、分布特征等进行分析,得出结论:(1)世界石油探明储量自1980年以来大致经历了4个阶段,呈现明显的阶梯状增长的态势,基本每十年出现一次储量跃升,并保持一段时间的平稳。储采比一直稳定在40年以上,呈现缓慢上升的趋势。(2)大区尺度的石油探明储量分布不均衡,且探明储量的变化趋势不同。中东一直是石油探明储量最大的地区,其次为中南美洲地区。中东、北美占世界比重先升后降。非洲和中南美洲稳步提升,亚太地区持续下滑。(3)国家层面的石油探明储量呈现明显的集中分布。储量前4的国家占世界储量的53.75%,储量超过10亿吨的国家在很大程度上主导着世界石油开发的基本格局。从各国演变来看,世界石油储量呈现出多极化的趋势,从中东、北美向中亚、俄罗斯和中南美洲等转移。     

国家城市规模分布的时空演化特征及影响因素——基于LandScan的全球实证研究

洞悉世界各国城市规模分布规律有助于推动形成合理的城镇格局和促进国家经济高质量发展。论文基于2000—2018年LandScan等数据库,按照统一的人口集聚标准创新性地识别了全球各国的城市,分析了国家城市规模分布的时空演化特征、影响因素及其异质性。研究发现：全球各国城市规模分布在研究期间内呈波动均衡的态势。从空间演化来看,非洲、南美洲国家城市规模分布逐渐均衡,而亚洲、欧洲国家出现极化趋势;从现状比较来看,非洲国家城市规模分布的极化程度居于首位,欧洲国家则最为均衡。河流密度、城市人口密度以及工业化水平提高会促进城市规模分布均衡发展,而地形起伏度、国家不稳定程度增加则会强化其极化程度。相比于其他要素,社会经济要素(尤其是城市人口密度)对城市规模分布的影响在不同收入水平、产业结构和政府干预程度的国家间异质性最为明显。研究深化了对城市规模分布及其形成机理的规律性认知,为形成合理的城市规模分布提供了有力的实证支撑。未来中国应通过构建适度均衡的城市规模分布体系、扩大内外双向开放以及应用新一代信息技术,重塑国家经济地理格局。     

近年来我国普通劳动者工资变化及其对农地利用的影响

利用农村固定观察点数据、《全国农产品成本收益资料汇编》、全国农业统计数据等,对近年来我国普通劳动者工资的变化特征及其对我国农地利用的影响进行了分析。结果表明：近年来我国普通劳动者工资的增长速度和幅度明显要快于农产品和农业生产资料价格的增长速度。我国东部发达地区的部分省份,其复种指数已经出现了明显的下降趋势,物质和服务投...     

Coping with land scarcity. Farmers' changing land-use and management practices in two mountain watersheds of Nepal

In this study some light is shed on farmers' changing land-use and management practices in two mountain watersheds located in the Western Hills of Nepal. The study is based on a survey of 300 households, group discussion, interviews of key informants, and field observation in project and non-project watersheds conducted from April to September 1999. Confronted with shrinking landholding size, owing to a steadily growing population and scarcity of non-farming employment opportunities, farmers in both watersheds have gradually intensified land use and cultivated new crops to increase farm production and income. They are shifting from cereal crops to livestock husbandry, particularly along the road in the project watershed, and to vegetables and other cash crops in the accessible foothills of the non-project watershed. They have also adopted various structural and biological measures to control soil erosion, landslides, gully expansion and soil nutrient loss in order to maintain or enhance land productivity. The degree of adoption of the structural and biological measures is higher in the project watershed than in the non-project watershed. Contrary to the traditionally held belief of some researchers, population pressure on a finite land resource has brought about positive changes in land-use and management practices. Farmers have innovated and adopted different land management technologies to increase farm production as they are exposed to the risk of food insecurity because of shrinking landholding size and land degradation.     

Changes in the age of New Zealand farmers: Problems for the future?

Earlier research shows that between 1971 and 1981, the number of farmers in New Zealand increased and their average age decreased, whereas between 1981 and 1991, the opposite trend occurred. This article addresses the issue of change in the average age of farmers since 1991 using recent census data. It reviews the difficulties in obtaining good data and describes the adjustments need to be made to obtain a consistent data series from 1971 to 2006. The long-term trend for increasing age of farmers and farm workers continues. This demographic aspect of farm structural change is then discussed in terms of the sustainability of farming by reference to productivity and potential problems with succession.     

1980～2017年环渤海海岸线和围填海时空演变及其影响机制

运用3S技术,采用水体指数法（MNDWI）、分形维数法、土地利用转移矩阵和回归分析等方法,以环渤海海岸带1980、1985、1990、1995、2000、2005、2010、2015和2017年9个时期TM遥感影像为主数据源,研究近40 a围填海活动影响下的环渤海海岸线动态演变特征。结果表明：1980~2017年环渤海海岸线增加了1 159.9 km,分形维数持续增加,岸线呈曲折化。其中,人工岸线增长了1 977.9 km,自然岸线减少了80%。重点变化区域包括黄河三角洲及莱州湾、渤海湾、辽东湾顶部、普兰店湾等地区。1980~2017年环渤海围填海的面积增加了1 988.5 km ²。主要类型由养殖池、盐田及农用地向养殖池、盐田、建筑用地转化。围填海活动与岸线长度、属性变化呈显著线性关系。综上,水产养殖、围海晒盐、农田开垦、工业化和城镇化建设等围填海活动影响了岸线长度及属性等特征的变化。     

Detecting the storage and change on topsoil organic carbon in grasslands of Inner Mongolia from 1980s to 2010s

Soil carbon sequestration and potential has been a focal issue in global carbon research. Under the background of global change, the estimation of the size as well as its change of soil organic carbon（SOC） storage is of great importance. Based on soil data from the second national soil survey and field survey during 2011–2012, by using the regression method between sampling soil data and remote sensing data, this paper aimed to investigate spatial distribution and changes of topsoil（0–20 cm） organic carbon storage in grasslands of Inner Mongolia between the 1980 s and 2010 s. The results showed that：（1） the SOC storage in grasslands of Inner Mongolia between the 1980 s and 2010 s was estimated to be 2.05 and 2.17 Pg C, with an average density of 3.48 and 3.69 kg C·m–2, respectively. The SOC storage was mainly distributed in the typical steppe and meadow steppe, which accounted for over 98% of the total SOC storage. The spatial distribution showed a decreased trend from the meadow steppe, typical steppe to the desert steppe, corresponding to the temperature and precipitation gradient.（2） SOC changes during 1982–2012 were estimated to be 0.12 Pg C, at 7.00 g C·m–2·yr–1, which didn＇t show a significant change, indicating that SOC storage in grasslands of Inner Mongolia remained relatively stable over this period. However, topsoil organic carbon showed different trends of carbon source/sink during the past three decades. Meadow steppe and typical steppe had sequestered 0.15 and 0.03 Pg C, respectively, served as a carbon sink; while desert steppe lost 0.06 Pg C, served as a carbon source. It appears that SOC storage in grassland ecosystem may respond differently to climate change, related to vegetation type, regional climate type and grazing intensity. These results might give advice to decision makers on adopting suitable countermeasures for sustainable grassland utilization and protection.