Vulnerability and adaptation to climate-related fire impacts in rural and urban interior Alaska

This paper explores whether fundamental differences exist between urban and rural vulnerability to climate-induced changes in the fire regime of interior Alaska. We further examine how communities and fire managers have responded to these changes and what additional adaptations could be put in place. We engage a variety of social science methods, including demographic analysis, semi-structured interviews, surveys, workshops and observations of public meetings. This work is part of an interdisciplinary study of feedback and interactions between climate, vegetation, fire and human components of the Boreal forest social–ecological system of interior Alaska. We have learned that although urban and rural communities in interior Alaska face similar increased exposure to wildfire as a result of climate change, important differences exist in their sensitivity to these biophysical, climate-induced changes. In particular, reliance on wild foods, delayed suppression response, financial resources and institutional connections vary between urban and rural communities. These differences depend largely on social, economic and institutional factors, and are not necessarily related to biophysical climate impacts per se. Fire management and suppression action motivated by political, economic or other pressures can serve as unintentional or indirect adaptation to climate change. However, this indirect response alone may not sufficiently reduce vulnerability to a changing fire regime. More deliberate and strategic responses may be required, given the magnitude of the expected climate change and the likelihood of an intensification of the fire regime in interior Alaska.     

Forest fire risk maps: a GIS open source application – a case study in Norwest of Portugal

Forest fires are widely recognized as one of the most critical events in global change. Successful fire management depends on effective fire prevention, detection, and presuppression, having an adequate fire suppression capability, and consideration of fire ecology relationships. Geographical information systems (GIS) provide tools to create, transform, and combine georeferenced variables. In Portugal, as in many other countries, it is mandatory that all the municipalities produce forest fire risk maps on an annual basis, following the rules of the Portuguese Forest Authority, a governmental association. This article presents the results of a research project aimed at producing forest fire risk maps in a GIS open source environment in Portugal. The requirements of an open source application are better quality, higher reliability, more flexibility, lower cost, and an end to predatory vendor lock-in. Three different open source desktop GIS software projects were evaluated: Quantum GIS (QGIS), generalitat valenciana, Sistema d'Informacio Geografica, and Kosmo. Taking into account the skills and experience of the authors, the main advantage of QGIS relies on the easiness and quickness in developing new plug-ins, using Python language. Therefore, this project was developed in QGIS platform and the interface was created in Python. This application incorporates seven procedures under a single toolbar. The production of the forest fire risk map comprises several steps and the production of several maps: probability, susceptibility, hazard, vulnerability, economic value, potential loss, and finally the forest fire risk map. The forest fire risk map comprises five classes: very low risk (dark green), low risk (green), medium risk (yellow), high risk (orange), and very high risk (red). This application was tested in three different municipal governments of the Norwest zone of Portugal. This application has the advantages of grouping in a unique toolbar all the procedures needed to produce forest fire risk maps and is free for the institution/user. Beyond being an open source application, this application may be faster and easier when compared with the GIS proprietary solutions that usually comprise several steps and the use of different software extensions. This work presents several contributions for the area of the GIS open source applications to forest fire risk management.     

Job Proximity and Accessibility for Workers of Various Wage Groups

This research proposes two indexes, job proximity and accessibility, to measure workers' location advantage by residences with respect to their job markets. Job proximity is designed to capture the spatial separation between residents and jobs. Job accessibility measures one's ability to overcome such separation as may be affected by transportation means, road network, congestion, and intensity of competition for jobs among workers. The research compares the two measures among workers of various wage levels in an attempt to reveal who has the greatest advantage in job access and whether job access is a spatial or nonspatial issue. In Cleveland in 1990, the mean wage rate of 30,000 was a critical turning point: below this level, the higher the mean wage rate in a residential area, the farther the area was away from jobs; above this level, the trend is reversed. In other words, below a wage threshold, workers tend to trade better and more spacious housing (usually farther away from jobs) for more commuting; but above the threshold, workers retreat for saving in commuting (pertaining to their high opportunity cost of commuting). Although low-wage workers enjoy better job proximity, many of them (particularly some inner-city residents) have the worst job accessibility because of their limited transport mobility as indicated by a low level of automobile ownership. Job proximity declines with distance from the CBD and conforms to the monocentric model, as does job accessibility but to a less degree. Since workers with various wages respond differently to job access, the distribution of mean wage rates in the metropolitan area is hardly monocentric.     

Older People and Transitions from Employment to Nonemployment: International Perspectives and Policy Issues

The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) has identified population aging as one of the most important challenges facing OECD countries and has highlighted the need for people to work longer and for job prospects for older workers to be enhanced. This article provides a summary review of a recent OECD report, Ageing and Employment Policies—Live Longer, Work Longer, as a platform to highlight differences between countries in demographic profiles and projections and in patterns of formal labor market participation among older workers. Drawing on selected information from a broader evidence base, it unveils important differences between countries in the scale of demographic and associated labor market challenges. It also explores factors affecting labor market transitions among older workers and age-related and other barriers to paid work among older people, emphasizing the diversity of experience between individuals. Finally, it highlights some strategic challenges for policy.     

Real-time genetic spatial optimization to improve forest fire spread forecasting in high-performance computing environments

Abstract

Forest fires are a kind of natural hazard with a high number of occurrences in southern European countries. To avoid major damages and to improve forest fire management, one can use forest fire spread simulators to predict fire behavior. When providing forest fire predictions, there are two main considerations: accuracy and computation time. In the context of natural hazards simulation, it is well known that part of the final forecast error comes from uncertainty in the input data. These data typically consist of a set of GIS files, which should be appropriately conflated. For this reason, several input data calibration methods have been developed by the scientific community. In this work, the Two-Stage calibration methodology, which has been shown to provide good results, is used. This calibration strategy is computationally intensive and time-consuming because it uses a Genetic Algorithm as a solution. Taking into account the aspect of urgency in forest fire spread prediction, it is necessary to maintain a balance between accuracy and the time needed to calibrate the input parameters. In order to take advantage of this technique, one must deal with the problem that some of the obtained solutions are impractical, since they involve simulation times that are too long, preventing the prediction system from being deployed at an operational level. A new method which finds the minimum resolution reduction for such long simulations, keeping accuracy loss to a known interval, is proposed. The proposed improvement is based on a time-aware core allocation policy that enables real-time forest fire spread forecasting. The final prediction system is a cyberinfrastructure, which enables forest fire spread prediction at real time.     

Influences of forest roads on the spatial patterns of human- and lightning-caused wildfire ignitions

Understanding the spatial patterns of fire ignitions and fire sizes is essential for understanding fire regimes. Although previous studies have documented associations of human-caused fire ignitions with road corridors, less consideration has been given to understanding the multiple influences of roads on the fire regime at a broader landscape-scale. Therefore, we examined the difference between lightning- and human-caused fire ignitions in relation to forest road corridors and other anthropogenic and biophysical factors in the eastern Cascade Mountains of Washington State. We used geographical information systems and case-control logistic regression models to assess the relative importance of these explanatory variables that influence the locations of lightning versus human-caused ignitions.We found that human-caused ignitions were concentrated close to roads, in high road density areas, and near the wildland-urban interface (WUI). In contrast, lightning-caused ignitions were concentrated in low road density areas, away from WUI, and in low population density areas. Lightning-caused ignitions were also associated with fuels and climatic and topographic factors. A weak but significant relationship between lightning-caused fire and proximity to gravel roads may be related to fuels near roads or to bias in detection and reporting of lightning-caused fires near roads. Although most small fires occurred in roaded areas, they accounted for only a small proportion of the total burned area. In contrast, the large fires in roadless and wilderness areas accounted for most of the burned area. Thus, from the standpoint of the total area burned, the effect of forest roads on restricting fire size is likely greater than the impact of roads on increasing fire ignitions. The results of our study suggest that roads and their edge effect area should be more widely acknowledged as a unique type of landscape effect in fire research and management.     

Political ecology of tiger conservation in India: Adverse effects of banning customary practices in a protected area

Protected areas have had significant impacts on local communities primarily through the physical removal of people. In some instances, people continue to live within protected areas due to the inability of the state to evict them. The restrictions on livelihoods placed on people living inside protected areas lead to in situ displacement. We show how conservation enclosures in the Biligiri Rangaswamy Temple Tiger Reserve have produced a class of people that the state ‘lets die’ by banning customary practices such as fire use, hunting and harvesting of forest produce. Using longitudinal ethnographic, socio‐economic and ecological data, we demonstrate that conservation policy has alienated indigenous forest dwellers from their agricultural and forest‐land. The outcomes of conservation policy include dispossession through increased crop losses, reduced income from agriculture and forest produce, as well as a forest that is dominated by weeds due to fire suppression. The ban on hunting in particular has increased wildlife densities, which has enabled the state to accumulate revenues through the establishment of wildlife tourism facilities. All in all, centralized protected area governance has changed the relationships among people, forest and the state in a way that has produced adverse effects for both livelihoods and the ecosystem.     

森林景观模型研究新进展及其应用

森林景观模型(forest landscape models)是基于森林动态机制和干扰作用在景观尺度上模拟和预测森林时空变化特征的计算机模型。该类模型越来越多地用于森林规划、经营管理、生态资源保护与恢复及全球气候变化研究。本文通过对大量文献资料的整理,对森林景观模型的概念、尺度、类型、方法、应用和最新研究进展进行了综述。随着计算机、地理信息系统、遥感等技术的迅猛发展,森林景观模型将会越来越多地与地理信息系统、规划经营管理决策等紧密结合,未来将向服务性决策模型方向发展。     

Failing to Grow "Their" Own Justice? The Co-Production of Racial/Gendered Labor and Milwaukee's Urban Forest

Little attention is paid to the ways that labor market inequalities within urban institutions enforce governance regimes that (re)produce urban environmental unevenness. Milwaukee's Bureau of Forestry is one such institution that has historically been dependent on state-sanctioned labor market inequalities to perpetuate an explicitly White/male regime of environmental governance and production. Historically, the Bureau's management employed and promoted very few African Americans and women within its arboricultural workforce, based on its racist and gendered categories of laboring individuals. Furthermore, and for identical reasons, these workers—and by extension their communities—face distributional injustices as they are not allowed to channel their labors into the production of equitable and/or alternative forms of urban forests more suitable to their own social reproduction. This paper investigates the changing relations between Milwaukee's Bureau of Forestry and its African American and female employees as they attempt to legally (re)articulate their laboring identities and capabilities within a disempowering institution. We use in-depth interviews and archival materials to show that the Bureau of Forestry has consequently been forced to publicly confront its racist/patriarchal legacy in light of two recent high-profile lawsuits and an ambassadors program. We conclude by discussing how changes that allow some African Americans and women to work in Milwaukee's urban forest have affected the Bureau of Forestry and potentially the forest itself.     

Spatial Ecology of Pre –Euro‐American Fires in a Southern Rocky Mountain Subalpine Forest Landscape

Natural disturbances such as fires have been widely studied, but less is known about their spatial ecology than about other aspects of them. We reconstructed and mapped pre–Euro‐American fire history in a subalpine forest landscape in southeastern Wyoming, and analyzed the fires using GIS. Mean fire interval varies little with topography (elevation, aspect, slope) and is spatially autocorrelated at distances of at least 2 km. Fires often spread downslope, and spread more than expected from the north and south and less than expected from the west, under the influence of particular synoptic climatic conditions. The landscape of 1868 a.d., at the time of Euro‐American settlement, was strongly influenced by fires. However, it contained large patches of connected forest and few high‐contrast edges, unlike the modern landscape, which is fragmented by industrial forestry and roads. The spatial ecology of the natural fire regime may be a useful guide for management.     

新型城镇化与非正规就业：规模、格局及社会融合

中国城镇化由偏重数量转向更加注重质量的新型城镇化,促进农村转移人口市民化、提高就业质量成为城镇化发展的重要目标,疫情影响下非正规就业问题更为突出。论文从新型城镇化与非正规就业的关系出发阐释非正规就业人口的历史产生和发展要求,基于人口普查和《中国劳动力动态调查》测度了中国城镇非正规就业的规模和格局特征,总结了非正规就业者当前面临的社会融合难题,并提出发展思路和路径。结果发现：① 城镇化与非正规就业之间关系密切,非正规就业为城镇化过程中农村转移人口提供大量就业机会,缓解了城镇就业压力。以人为本的新型城镇化需要关注非正规就业模式,以促进农业转移人口市民化和社会融合。② 经多源数据估算,中国城镇非正规就业占城镇总就业的33.2%~44.7%,就业人数达1.38亿~1.55亿,以隐性就业部分为主。在空间分布上总体呈现东、中、西逐渐减少的特征;在雇佣类型上以从事各类非正规工作的被雇型就业为主;行业结构主要集中在批发和零售贸易及餐饮业,居民服务、修理和其他服务业与制造业等。③ 非正规就业者主要面临职业困境、户籍限制、公共服务差距、风险应对能力弱等问题,需要通过完善就业服务体系等改革,提升就业质量,推动市民化和社会融合。     

Spatial Mismatch and Employment in a Decade of Restructuring∗

Spatial barriers to employment limit women's job opportunities, but their effects differ among racial/ethnic minority groups. This study evaluates the degree of spatial mismatch for minority women and men by comparing the commuting times of African American, Latino, and white workers in the New York metropolitan region. Using Public Use Microdata for 1980 and 1990, we perform a partial decomposition analysis to assess the role of spatial mismatch in lengthening commuting times for minority workers. The results show that African American men and women living in the center of the region have poorer spatial access to employment than their white counterparts. In the suburbs, African American women and Latinas suffer no spatial mismatch; rather, their longer commuting times reflect greater reliance on mass transit. Comparison with 1980 findings reveals little change in spatial mismatch over time despite significant economic and social restructuring in the 1980s. Spatial barriers still limit employment prospects for the majority of minority women living at the core of the region.     

Spatial Mismatch and Employment in a Decade of Restructuring*

Spatial barriers to employment limit women's job opportunities, but their effects differ among racial/ethnic minority groups. This study evaluates the degree of spatial mismatch for minority women and men by comparing the commuting times of African American, Latino, and white workers in the New York metropolitan region. Using Public Use Microdata for 1980 and 1990, we perform a partial decomposition analysis to assess the role of spatial mismatch in lengthening commuting times for minority workers. The results show that African American men and women living in the center of the region have poorer spatial access to employment than their white counterparts. In the suburbs, African American women and Latinas suffer no spatial mismatch; rather, their longer commuting times reflect greater reliance on mass transit. Comparison with 1980 findings reveals little change in spatial mismatch over time despite significant economic and social restructuring in the 1980s. Spatial barriers still limit employment prospects for the majority of minority women living at the core of the region.     

THUNDERSTORM CLIMATOLOGY BASED ON LIGHTNING DETECTOR DATA,MANITOBA, CANADA

Comparisons are made between thunderstorm data collected from a lightning detector network and from conventional climatic stations for the province of Manitoba, Canada. The greater resolution in time and space of lightning detector (direction finder) data makes it a valuable source of thunderstorm information and lends itself to some important applications. Data were collected for the forest fire season of 1985 using a network of 7 lightning direction finders distributed throughout the province. Some 67,912 cloud-to-ground lightning strikes were recorded by time and location during 122 thunderstorm days. July was the most active month with 27,260 strikes over 28 days. Two regions of the province had the greatest concentration of lightning strikes, indicating some influence by topography and position of large lakes. Case studies are presented of the most active lightning storms of 1985 and 1986. These storms are exclusively frontal storms, with most having similar synoptic weather patterns to those of large hailstorms and tornadoes in Manitoba. Relationships between meteorological parameters and lightning strike distribution are presented. These relationships may prove useful in the suppression of lightning-caused forest fires, especially in remote areas of the province. [Key words: lightning, thunderstorm, synoptic climatology, natural hazards, fire prevention.]     

Rocky Substrate and the Lower Treeline Ecotone of Yellowstone's Northern Range

Lower treeline ecotones are influenced by several processes, including fire, grazing, and climatic variables, but rocky substrate is an under-recognized factor affecting their patterns and dynamics. On the Northern Range of Yellowstone National Park, we hypothesized that north-facing slopes and riparian zones would explain the distribution of most forested areas, but that rocky substrate would explain a substantial additional portion of the lower treeline, and that advancement of conifers into grassland has occurred along rocky substrate. We used GIS software and change detection analysis to assess the spatial distribution and change of the forest with respect to north-facing slopes, riparian areas, and rocky substrate. As in other lower treeline studies, we found that north-facing slopes and riparian zones contained the majority of forested land (63%). However, areas with rocky substrate accounted for more forested area than north-facing slopes and riparian zones combined (67.4%), including 28% of forest that was not explained by the first two variables. Change detection analysis between 1954 and 2006 revealed that conifer advancement was insignificant but the number of forested patches increased and the mean size of patches decreased. These results suggest a more fragmented lower treeline environment that may indicate forest advancement in small patches. Field surveys revealed that rocky substrate did not provide conifers with protection from browsing ungulates or fire, yet conifers preferentially established on rocky areas. Our landscape analysis suggests that weathered rock increases soil coarseness in a landscape dominated by fine glacial till, which improves conditions for seedling establishment by reducing competition with grasses and shrubs sufficiently to overcome the negative influence of dry, nutrient-poor microsites in a moisture-stressed environment.     

Human-ignited wildfire patterns and responses to policy shifts

Development of efficient forest wildfire policies requires an understanding of the underlying reasons behind forest fire occurrences. Globally, there is a close relationship between forest wildfires and human activities; most wildfires are human events due to negligence (e.g., agricultural burning escapes) and deliberate actions (e.g., vandalism, pyromania, revenge, land use change attempts). We model the risk of wildfire as a function of the spatial pattern of urban development and the abandonment/intensity of agricultural and forestry activities, while controlling for biophysical and climatic factors. We use a count data approach to model deliberately set fires in Galicia, N.W. Spain, where wildfire is a significant threat to forest ecosystems, with nearly 100,000 wildfires recorded during a thirteen-year period (1999–2011). The spatial units of analysis are more than 3600 parishes. Data for the human influences are derived from fine-resolution maps of wildland–urban interface (WUI), housing spatial arrangements, road density, forest ownership, and vegetation type. We found wildfire risk to be higher where there are human populations and development/urbanisation pressure, as well as in unattended forest areas due to both rural exodus and a fragmented forest ownership structure that complicates the profitability of forestry practices. To better help direct management efforts, parameter estimates from our model were used to predict wildfire counts under alternative scenarios that account for variation across space on future land-use conditions. Policies that incentivize cooperative forest management and that constrain urban development in wildlands at hotspot fire locations are shown to reduce wildfire risk. Our results highlight the need for spatially targeted fire management strategies.     

遥感、地图、地理信息系统—体化应用

遥感、地图和地理信息系统（ＯＩＳ）三者呈“你中有我，我中有你”的相辅相成关系．三者一体化应用使地球科学得以进展，又能在资源开发、环境保护、自然灾害监测评价等方面发挥重要作用．一体化应用的基础是掌握三者的学科一技术特性与相通关系．     

气候变化、火干扰与生态系统碳循环

 随着全球变暖的日益显著,气候变化及其影响越来越受到广泛关注。火干扰作为森林生态系统碳循环的一个重要组成部分,其干扰过程是对碳的再分配过程,因而对区域乃至全球的碳循环产生重要影响。气候变化、火干扰与生态系统碳循环三者之间存在因果循环关系,正确认识气候变化与火干扰的复杂关系及双向反馈作用,以及火干扰在生态系统碳循环中的作用,这对制定科学合理的火干扰管理策略,提高生态系统管理水平,减少碳排放,促进碳增汇,减缓全球变化速率均有重要意义。从两个方面阐述了气候变化、火干扰与生态系统碳循环之间的交互作用关系：气候变化与火干扰相互影响关系及双向反馈作用,分别从气候变化对火干扰的影响及火干扰对气候变化的影响两个方面阐述了两者之间的相互影响关系;火干扰与森林生态系统碳循环的交互作用,分别从火干扰对森林生态系统碳循环的影响及模型方法在模拟火干扰对森林生态系统碳循环影响中的应用两个方面论述火干扰对森林生态系统碳循环的影响及其定量评价模型方法。目前火干扰直接碳排放的模型方法比较完善,而间接影响碳循环的模型方法并不成熟,许多方法局限于定性描述,因此,应进一步探讨集成实地测量、遥感观测和模型模拟的跨尺度火干扰对碳循环的影响研究,注重尺度的转换问题。最后,提出了气候变暖背景下火干扰管理的路径选择,以及对今后的研究方向进行了展望。     

基于土壤水分和气象要素的林火预报研究——以广东省为例

基于国内现行的森林火险气象指数和单因子火险贡献度模型,以及逻辑回归模型和随机森林模型,在林火预报中引入微波遥感土壤水分信息,使用MCD14DL火点数据集和地面气象观测资料对广东省不同时间尺度的林火发生概率进行预测。结果表明：逻辑回归模型和随机森林模型构建的林火预测模型显著优于现行的森林火险气象指数和单因子火险贡献度模型,预测精度提升约20%。其中,随机森林模型对林火频数的解释程度最高（两者相关系数为0.476）。此外,加入微波土壤水分信息后,相较原有的基于气象要素的林火预测模型,2种机器学习模型的预测精度均略有提升,体现了表层土壤水分信息在林火预报中的重要性。研究可为高效提取对地观测信息,以改进华南地区不同时间尺度的林火预报工作提供参考。     

DEFINING JOB CONCENTRATIONS: THE LOS ANGELES CASE

This paper aims to develop a simple technique for defining employment concentrations, suitable for application to any large North American urban area, and to implement it for a major area. Following a review of earlier work, the 1990 distribution patterns of population, resident workers, and jobs in greater Los Angeles are mapped, summarized in tabular form, and compared. After a consideration of alternative approaches, employment concentrations are delineated using census tracts, with the 1990 employment/residence ratio as chief criterion, rather than job density. Of 120 concentrations defined, 11 have more than 100,000 jobs each and 28 have at least 50,000. Downtown Los Angeles, still the region's largest concentration, now is rivaled by the relatively new Irvine. Comparable 1980 data show job growth in most concentrations, although increases Downtown have been modest. The industry profiles of the largest concentrations vary widely, especially as to the significance of manufacturing, which dominates some concentrations but is relatively unimportant in others. The data are inconclusive as to whether jobs in the region became more or less concentrated during the 1980s. The paper also questions two of Garreau's "edge cities" criteria by showing that most such developments in the Los Angeles region are not wholly new and already existed as job concentrations 30 years ago.