ASCAT散射计风场在我国近海的初步检验与应用

为了弥补中国近海海区缺乏洋面风场观测资料,提高海洋气象预报能力,对MetOP-A极轨卫星搭载的ASCAT散射计反演风场资料和中国气象局在近海布设的18个浮标站测风资料进行对比。结果表明,离岸较远的海域中ASCAT反演风场的质量要优于离岸较近的海域,在较远的海域中,ASCAT风速和浮标观测风速的平均偏差为0.9 m·s~(-1),ASCAT的风速高于浮标站的风速,平均绝对偏差和均方根误差分别为1.2和1.4 m·s~(-1),风速的相关系数为0.94。统计特征分析结果显示,ASCAT散射计风场资料在中国近海有较好的可信度,在高风速的时候,ASCAT和浮标资料一致性较好,而低风速时候,ASCAT比浮标略偏大。目前,中央气象台正在逐步开展ASCAT资料的业务应用,ASCAT洋面的MICAPS格式产品和图形产品现已实现准实时运行。     

QuikSCAT和ASCAT卫星反演风场在中国南海北部的适用性研究

对QuikSCAT和ASCAT原始轨道10 m反演风场与浮标资料在中国南海北部的统计检验分析结果表明:两套卫星资料在中国南海北部具有较好的适用性,QuickSCAT反演风速偏高0.46 m·s~(-1),ASCAT反演风速在近海偏高0.45 m·s~(-1),在开阔海域偏高0.07 m·s~(-1)。超过半数的QuickSCAT反演风向误差30°。在近岸海域,ASCAT反演风向误差30°的超过56%,在开阔海域,误差绝对值30°的达到64%。小风时卫星反演风速偏大,大风时卫星反演风速明显偏小,且白天的偏差大于夜间;在5~10 m·s~(-1)风速条件下,两者的一致性较好。用WRF模式模拟的近海风能资源存在高估的可能,卫星资料对近海风能资源评估是个有益的补充,本文对卫星反演风场误差的分析结果也可以为卫星反演风场的资料同化提供参考。     

1980—2014年中国台风大风和台风极端大风的变化

基于1980—2014中国670站日最大风速资料,利用改进的客观天气图分析法（OSAT）分离出中国陆地的台风大风（6级以上,≥10.8 m/s）,并定义了台风极端大风,进而研究了台风大风和台风极端大风的变化特征。分析表明：在地理分布上,台风大风年均日数和占比均自海岸线向内陆迅速减小,在海南、华南和东南沿海省份以及江苏南部,台风大风占比一般为30%～70%;台风极端大风年均日数大值主要分布在沿海省市（除河北和天津）,特别是华东和华南沿海,局部地区台风极端大风日数占比达100%。从季节变化看,在台风活跃的7—9月,中国台风极端大风频次总体上超过了季风极端大风;就全国而言,当阈值从最低值（11.5 m/s）提升至12级（32.7 m/s）时,台风极端大风频数占比则从12%急剧攀升至77%。1980—2014年,中国台风大风和台风极端大风年日数均显著减少,而台风极端大风年平均强度增强;这期间引起中国台风大风和台风极端大风的台风频数均显著减少,但引起台风极端大风的台风在生命期和影响期的平均强度均显著增强,这可能是上述显著变化特征的主要原因。     

国产海洋气象漂流观测仪在台风观测中的应用分析

介绍了由我国自主研制的、基于北斗导航通信卫星的、集海洋水文要素和气象要素一体观测的、在恶劣海况条件下能进行连续、可靠观测的海洋气象漂流观测仪,及其在多个海域开展实际的外海观测试验情况。2017年8月20日至9月5日,三台漂流观测仪在广东博贺海洋气象综合试验基地,经历了2017年第13号台风天鸽和第14号台风帕卡两次台风天气过程。对试验期间获取的台风天气过程中气温、气压、海温等观测数据的分析表明,漂流观测仪所获得的观测数据与相关国家级业务观测站点的观测数据具有较好的相关性,揭示了台风天气过程的明显特征,并表现出合理、清晰的日变化特征。上述试验表明,国产海洋气象漂流观测仪已具备在恶劣海况下进行实际观测的能力。     

Intercomparison of the South Asian High in NCEP1, NCEP2, and ERA-40 Reanalyses and in Station Observations

The South Asian Highs (SAHs) at 100 hPa over China in the three reanalysis datasets NCEP1, NCEP2, and ERA-40 are evaluated by using station observation data. The results demonstrate a substantial discrepancy even between the reanalyses. First, the data of the three reanalyses generally underestimate the intensity of the SAH in the China domain. Second, there are interdecadal changes in the SAH, with highs in the 1960s and 1980s and lows in the 1970s, 1990s, and 2000s. This interdecadal variation of the SAH can be well depicted with NCEP1 data, but the high in the 1980s is missed by ERA-40. The NCEP2 corresponds well with NCEP 1 and captures the decreasing trend after 1979. Furthermore, the NCEP1 reanalysis overestimates the interdecadal changes of SAH, while ERA-40 underestimates the interdecadal changes. This work suggests that much caution should be exerted when the reanalysis datasets are adopted to study the interdecadal variability of SAH.     

冬季黄渤海大风天气与渔船风损统计分析

选用1987-2006年NECP 500hPa高度场及海平面气压场日平均再分析资料及沿海岸基、石油平台、海岛及船舶实时观测资料,统计分析了冬季造成黄渤海海域8级和10级以上大风天气过程;选用中国渔船安全分析报告1999-2005年风灾船损事故资料,分析了大风和船损灾害的关系.结果显示:(1)冬季影响黄渤海的冷空气过程主要是来自西北路径,占全部冷空气过程的50.4%.(2)造成海上8级以上大风的冷空气过程的天气类型主要是小槽发展型112次,占全部冷空气过程的50.0%;其次是横槽转竖型61次,占全部冷空气过程的27.2%.(3)近20年冬季冷空气大风过程次数呈下降趋势;(4)风灾事故占渔船全损事故的51.85%,冬半年突发性的冷空气大风是导致木质渔船出现风灾事故的主要原因.     

Intercomparison of NO,NO2 and HNO3 measurements with photochemical theory

The simultaneous measurements of NO, NO₂ and HNO_A mixing‐ratio profiles carried out on the Stratoprobe balloon flight of 22 July 1974 have been simulated with a time‐dependent model using the measured temperature and ozone profiles. The calculated ratios of NO/NO₂, HNO₃/NO₂ using currently accepted photochemistry are consistent with the measured ratios within the experimental errors of the measurements. The measured NO₂/NO ratio is almost a factor of two smaller than predicted, although the discrepancy is still within the experimental errors. A remarkable proportionality in the NO₂ and O₃ profiles has been noted and is unexplained. A time‐dependent simulation has been employed to convert the measurements into diurnally‐averaged profiles suitable for intercomparison with two‐dimensional stratospheric models and a comparison with constituent profiles from Prinn et al. (1975) is carried out as an example. The NO_V mixing ratio, formed from the sum of the NO, NO₂ and HNO₂ measurements is similar to the NO_V mixing ratio from several one‐ and two‐dimensional models used to predict the effects of SST's on the ozone layer. The odd nitrogen mixing ratio is roughly constant from 20 to 35 km at 11 ppbv.     

Evolution of Stratocumulus Over Land: Comparison of Ground and Aircraft Observations with Numerical Weather Prediction Simulations

Forecasting of low cloud continues to challenge numerical weather prediction. With this in mind, surface and airborne observations were made over East Anglia, UK, during March 2011 to investigate stratus and stratocumulus advecting from the sea over land. Four surface sites were deployed at various distances inland aligned approximately along the flow. In situ data include cloud-droplet measurements from an aircraft operating off the coast and a tethered balloon 100 km inland. Comparisons of thermodynamic and cloud properties are made with Met Office operational model simulations at horizontal resolutions of 4 and 1.5 km. The clouds contained droplet concentrations up to 600 cm \(^{-3}\) within polluted outflow off Europe. These measurements were compared to three different model schemes for predicting droplet concentration: two of them perform well at low to moderate concentrations but asymptote to 375 cm \(^{-3}\) . Microwave radiometers at the ground sites retrieved liquid water paths that reduced with distance inland and were generally below 200 g m \(^{-2}\) . The modelled water path performs well upstream but more erratically far inland. Comparisons of thermodynamic profiles are made within both Lagrangian and Eulerian frameworks and show the model predicted changes in equivalent potential temperature generally within 1 K, with occasional errors of 2 K or more. The modelled cloud-top temperatures were in good agreement with the observations down to \(-\) 7  \(^{\circ }\) C, but the magnitude of the temperature inversion, although good at times, was too small by on average 1.6 K. The different simulations produced different cloud-top water contents due to a combination of resolution and scientific upgrades to the model, but they generally underestimate the amount of cloud water. Major changes, such as the mesoscale temporary cloud breaks on 2 March 2011 and the complete clearance on 4 March, were seemingly predicted by the model for the correct reasons.     

区域气候模式RegCM_NCC对华北冬季气温和降水的预报评估

利用国家气候中心全球海气耦合模式CGCM_NCC的输出结果驱动区域气候模式RegCM_NCC对华北地区1991—2010年冬季气温和降水进行了数值回报试验,并采用国家气候中心的业务预报评分(P)等5个评估参数对模式的回报结果进行了评估分析。结果表明:RegCM_NCC回报的华北地区20年冬季气温的P评分多年平均值为70.4分,其中大部分年份平均气温的P评分在60分以上,80分以上的有11年,11年的预报相对于随机预报和气候预报有正技巧;20年冬季降水的P评分多年平均值为66.3分,13年冬季降水的P评分在60分以上,在80分以上的有5年,8年的预报相对于随机预报有正技巧,有11年的预报相对于气候预报有正技巧。冬季Nino3.4区海温距平为负和东大西洋-俄罗斯西部型遥相关指数为负,均有利于回报的华北冬季气温P评分提高。     

Mesoscale Structure of Trade Wind Convection over Puerto Rico: Composite Observations and Numerical Simulation

We examine the mesoscale structure of the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL), low-level circulation, and trade wind convection over the sub-tropical island of Puerto Rico in mid-summer. Shallow afternoon thunderstorms are frequently seen over the western plains of the island. Observational data include automatic weather station measurements, radiosonde profiles, infrared satellite images, and mesoscale reanalysis data with a focus on the summer of 2006. Satellite microwave radar data (TRMM and CloudSat) indicate that island clouds typically extend just above the −20°C level during afternoon hours with reflectivity values reaching 50 dBz. A singular value decomposition of 3-hourly high resolution satellite rainfall maps reveals an island mode. From this a composite is constructed for a group of ten cases. With a Froude number ≈1 the trade winds pass over the mountains and standing vortices and gravity waves are trapped in the meandering wake. The Weather and Research Forecasting (WRF) model at 1-km resolution with 51 vertical layers is used to simulate the short-lived thunderstorms for two cases: 27 June and 20 July 2006. The model correctly locates the convective cells that develop between 1400 and 1700 LST. The shallow afternoon thunderstorms are triggered by surface heat fluxes, confluent sea breezes and a mountain wake. Recommendations for enhanced observations are given.     

Numerical Simulation of CO2 Concentrations in East Asia with RAMS-CMAQ

The regional air quality modeling system RAMS-CMAQ(Regional Atmospheric Modeling System and Models-3 Community Multi-scale Air Quality) was developed by incorporating a vegetation photosynthesis and respiration module(VPRM) and used to simulate temporal-spatial variations in atmospheric CO2 concentrations in East Asia,with prescribed surface CO2 fluxes(i.e.,fossil fuel emission,biomass burning,sea-air CO2 exchange,and terrestrial biosphere CO2 flux).Comparison of modeled CO2 mixing ratios with eight ground-based in-situ measurements demonstrated that the model was able to capture most observed CO2 temporal-spatial features.Simulated CO2 concentrations were generally in good agreement with observed concentrations.Results indicated that the accumulated impacts of anthropogenic emissions contributed more to increased CO2 concentrations in urban regions relative to remote locations.Moreover,RAMS-CMAQ analysis demonstrates that surface CO2 concentrations in East Asia are strongly influenced by terrestrial ecosystems.     

地基曙暮光光谱观测反演平流层O3和NO2柱含量

用差分光学吸收光谱(DOAS)方法,从曙暮光天顶散射可见光光谱资料反演了北京上空的O3和NO2柱含量,并对反演结果进行了验证和误差分析.斜柱含量的反演采用了线性和非线性最小二乘拟合方法,拟合时考虑了O3、NO2和H2O的吸收、Ring效应和散射的影响;斜柱含量除以空气质量因子转换成垂直柱含量.空气质量因子的计算使用伪球面DISORT辐射传输模式.O3和NO2总量的检验分别用北京的Dobson O3资料和卫星SAGE Ⅱ的NO2廓线资料.反演的O3总量与Dobson O3总量相比偏差小于10%;NO2总量与SAGE Ⅱ的偏差约20%.     

区域气候模式(RegCM2)与水文模式耦合的数值试验

建立不均匀的地表径流算法，修改RegCM2的径流方案，设计了一个适合与气候模式RegCM2耦合、能模拟水文站流量的汇流模式，模拟了1998年6、7、8月降水的空间分布，分析了该径流方案对降水、地表热量通量、地表径流、土壤湿度产生的影响。结果表明：（1）该方案在模拟1998年长江流域降水空间分布上有一定的合理性，在一定程度上改善了降水量的模拟，其影响大致是总降水量的10％；（2）地表径流方案改变了地面向大气输送的热量通量，这种作用随时间发生变化，这种变化与地表水分的再分配有关；（3）本方案计算的土壤渗透率较强，在暴雨初期，产生径流较少，而在暴雨后期土壤湿度增大，产生的地表径流较大，这一点更符合洪水形成的特点；（4）水文一气候耦合模式模拟了两个长江水文站的流量，模拟值基本反映了实测值的变化趋势，也表明耦合模式基本能反映1998年夏季长江流域大暴雨期间的地表水文过程。     

天气雷达回波衰减订正算法的研究(Ⅱ):数值模拟与个例实验

通过数值模拟研究雷达反射率因子呈均匀分布情况下的“可订正厚度”，计算了“无误差”情况下的订正效果以及“观测误差”、“k的误差”、库分辨等因素对订正效果的影响，还用实际观测个例进行衰减订正实验，并与解析算法和迭代算法的订正结果进行比较。结果表明，逐库算法，尤其是逐库近似算法，比迭代法计算效率高，比解析法有更大的稳定范围。     

Evaluating a Model of Evaporation and Transpiration with Observations in a Partially Wet Douglas-Fir Forest

The Penman–Monteith equation is extended to describe evaporation of intercepted rain, transpiration and the interaction between these processes in a single explicit function. This single-layer model simulates the effects of heat exchange, stomatal blocking and changed humidity deficit close to the canopy as a function of canopywater storage. Evaporation depends on the distribution of water over the canopy and the energy exchange between wet and dry parts. Transpiration depends on the dry canopy surface resistance that is described with a Jarvis-type response. The explicit functions obtained for water vapour fluxes facilitate a straightforward identificationof the various processes. Canopy water storage amounts and xylem sapflow were measured simultaneously during drying episodes after rainfall in a dense, partially wet, Douglas-fir forest. Estimates of evaporation and transpiration rates are derived from these observations. The analysis shows that evaporation induced transpirationreduction is mainly caused by energy consumption. Changes in water vapour deficit have a minor effect due to a compensating stomatal reaction. The remaining difference between observed and modelled transpiration reduction can be attributed to partial blocking of stomata by the water layer.     

A Study of DMS Oxidation in the Tropics: Comparison of Christmas Island Field Observations of DMS, SO2, and DMSO with Model Simulations

This study reports comparisonsbetween model simulations, based on current sulfurmechanisms, with the DMS, SO₂ and DMSOobservational data reported by Bandy et al.(1996) in their 1994 Christmas Island field study. For both DMS and SO₂, the model results werefound to be in excellent agreement with theobservations when the observations were filtered so asto establish a common meteorological environment. Thisfiltered DMS and SO₂ data encompassedapproximately half of the total sampled days. Basedon these composite profiles, it was shown thatoxidation of DMS via OH was the dominant pathway withno more than 5 to 15% proceeding through Cl atoms andless than 3% through NO₃. This analysis wasbased on an estimated DMS sea-to-air flux of 3.4 ×10⁹ molecs cm^-2 s^-1. The dominant sourceof BL SO₂ was oxidation of DMS, the overallconversion efficiency being evaluated at 0.65 ± 0.15. The major loss of SO₂ was deposition to theocean's surface and scavenging by aerosol. Theresulting combined first order k value was estimated at 1.6 × 10^-5 s^-1. In contrast to the DMSand SO₂ simulations, the model under-predictedthe observed DMSO levels by nearly a factor of 50. Although DMSO instrument measurement problems can notbe totally ruled out, the possibility of DMSO sourcesother than gas phase oxidation of DMS must beseriously considered and should be explored in futurestudies.     

上海市气象场与SO2浓度数值模拟

采用地形坐标系下适合于复杂地形且满足地-气耦合的静力学三维中-β尺度气象预报模式,使用08时的实测流场经变分法初始化后得到的初始流场,模拟研究了上海地区的局地流场时空演变特征。模式较细致地考虑了湍流、长短波辐射、凝结、蒸发、地表热力平衡等因子,在此基础上,使用有限元法数值求解一阶闭合的三维欧拉平流扩散方程,模拟了上海地区的SO₂浓度分布。结果表明:上海的局地流场具有明显的日变化特征,受海陆温差的影响明显,日间风速较夜间风速大,风向呈顺时针旋转;在不稳定层结情况下,高架点源排放的高空污染物对地面的污染物浓度有贡献,会造成地面污染物浓度升高。     

Numerical simulation of internal boundary-layer development and comparison with atmospheric data

A finite-volume numerical model is employed to investigate the adaptation of the atmospheric boundary layer to a change in the underlying surface roughness, such as that existing in the transition from land to the free surface of a water body. Numerical results are validated by comparison with neutral stratification atmospheric data and compared with the internal boundary-layer (IBL) heights computed using a number of existing empirical formulae. The numerical analysis allows an extension of the fetch range in which the existing formulae, calibrated only by comparison with short fetch data, may be applied. An argument is offered that the spatial variability of the water surface roughness should be also taken into account for the IBL development over the surface of a water body.     

利用微雨雷达研究一次冷锋云系降水的垂直结构分布及演变特征

本文利用河北邢台测站Ka波段微雨雷达（MRR）观测到的一次冷锋云系降水过程分析降水的垂直分布及演变特征。将MRR观测结果与天气雷达、地面雨滴谱仪、雨量计观测结果进行对比以检验MRR数据的可靠性。同时将MRR与雨滴谱仪和激光云高仪结合,研究了不同相对湿度阶段特征量、雨滴谱的平均垂直分布特征和降水特征量随时间、高度的演变特征。结果表明:MRR与雨量计及雨滴谱仪累计雨量结果较为接近,趋势一致。MRR 200 m雨强值与地面雨滴谱仪雨强值偏差最小,平均偏差为0.05 mm h?1,相关系数为0.93。相比雨滴谱仪,MRR观测到的小滴数浓度出现高估,大滴数浓度出现低估,中滴数浓度较为一致。降水在云内和云外受不同微物理过程影响,垂直变化特征不同。降水初期平均反射率和雨强在云底以下明显减小,小滴和中滴平均数浓度明显减小,蒸发作用影响较强。而在其余时间段在云内随高度降低平均反射率和雨强略有增加,小滴平均数浓度变化较小,中滴大滴平均数浓度增加,表明云内有云滴与雨滴间的碰并发生。而在云外低层,随高度降低平均有效直径明显增加,平均雨滴总数浓度明显减小,小滴平均数浓度显著减小,大滴平均数浓度显著增加,表明在云外低层雨滴间的碰并作用较强。     

预报副高脊面变化的动力模型及其简化数值试验

发展了一个描述副热带高压脊面变化的动力模型.这一模型基于大气环流角动量的守恒原理,得到了作为东、西风交界面的副高脊面变化所满足的方程,由于副高脊面直接成为预报量,因此,该模型对这一特定的研究对象有明确的动力学意义,便于进行脊面变化的动力影响因素研究.进一步发展了模型的简化数值方案,在权重函数为常数的假设下进行了初步试验,结果显示,副高脊面形态的时空变化基本能够模拟出来,主要体现在脊面的进退和倾斜等特征,说明该模型具有一定的模拟能力,而且三维积分格式的采用使得模拟结果比较平稳,过滤掉了高频噪音.数值试验的结果表明,按照脊面动力模型,确实能够直接计算副高脊面变化(移动和形变),并定量地考察影响脊面变化动力因子的贡献.