Evaluating geo-located Twitter data as a control layer for areal interpolation of population

Control data are critical for improving areal interpolation results. Remotely sensed imagery, road network, and parcels are the three most commonly used ancillary data for areal interpolation of population. Meanwhile, the open access geographic data generated by social networks is emerging as an alternative control data that can be related to the distribution of population. This study evaluates the effectiveness of geo-located night-time tweets data as ancillary information and its combination with the three commonly used ancillary datasets in intelligent areal interpolation. Due to the skewed Twitter user age, the other purpose of this study is to test the effect of age bias control data on estimation of different age group populations. Results suggest that geo-located tweets as single control data does not perform as well as the three other control layers for total population and all age-specific population groups. However, the noticeable enhancement effect of Twitter data on other control data, especially for age groups with a high percentage of Twitter users, suggests that it helps to better reflect population distribution by increasing variation in densities within a residential area delineated by other control data.     

A Point-Based Intelligent Approach to Areal Interpolation

Areal interpolation is the data transfer from one zonal system to another. A survey of previous literature on this subject points out that the most effective methods for areal interpolation are the intelligent approaches, which often take two-dimensional (2-D) land use or one-dimensional (1-D) road network information as ancillary data to give insight on the underlying distribution of a variable. However, the 2-D or 1-D ancillary information is not always applicable for the variable of interest in a specific study area. This article introduces a point-based intelligent approach to the areal interpolation problem by using zero-dimensional (0-D) points as ancillary data that are locationally associated with the variable of interest. The connection between zonal variables and point locations can be modeled with a linear or a nonlinear exponential function, which incorporates the distribution of the variables in the transferring of the information from the source zone to the target zone. An experimental study interpolating the population data at a suburbanized area suggests that the proposed method is an attractive alternative to other areal interpolation solutions based on the evaluation of its resulting accuracy and efficiency.     

基于RS和GIS的人口估计方法研究综述

随着RS和GIS技术的迅速发展, RS和GIS成为进行人口估计的主要手段。根据人口估计的目标和使用的数据源不同,可以把基于RS和GIS的人口估计方法分成两大类：面插值方法和统计模型方法。面插值方法根据插值过程中是否使用辅助数据可以进一步分成无辅助数据的面插值和有辅助数据的面插值两种。统计模型方法根据模型中自变量的不同可以分成建成区面积估计法、土地利用密度法、居住单元估计法、图像像元特征估计法和自然和社会经济特征综合估计法五种。本文按照上述分类标准综述了基于RS和GIS的各种人口估计方法,分析了各种方法的应用条件、优缺点和研究实例。最后提出了在基于RS和GIS进行人口估计方面需要进一步研究的问题。     

Enhancing areal interpolation frameworks through dasymetric refinement to create consistent population estimates across censuses

To assess micro-scale population dynamics effectively, demographic variables should be available over temporally consistent small area units. However, fine-resolution census boundaries often change between survey years. This research advances areal interpolation methods with dasymetric refinement to create accurate consistent population estimates in 1990 and 2000 (source zones) within tract boundaries of the 2010 census (target zones) for five demographically distinct counties in the US. Three levels of dasymetric refinement of source and target zones are evaluated. First, residential parcels are used as a binary ancillary variable prior to regular areal interpolation methods. Second, Expectation Maximization (EM) and its data-extended version leverage housing types of residential parcels as a related ancillary variable. Finally, a third refinement strategy to mitigate the overestimation effect of large residential parcels in rural areas uses road buffers and developed land cover classes. Results suggest the effectiveness of all three levels of dasymetric refinement in reducing estimation errors. They provide a first insight into the potential accuracy improvement achievable in varying geographic and demographic settings but also through the combination of different refinement strategies in parts of a study area. Such improved consistent population estimates are the basis for advanced spatio-temporal demographic research.     

面插值的研究进展

空间插值从广义上讲包括点插值和面插值 ,本文从有无辅助数据的角度介绍了还不为多数人熟知的面插值 ,在无辅助数据的方法中介绍了基于点的面插值法、面域比重插值法、使用控制区的面域比重法、Pycnophylactic面插值法等的算法和特点 ,在有辅助数据的方法中介绍了 EM算法和遥感作为辅助数据的面插值法 ,并介绍了面插值中的特例 -统计数据的空间化方法。     

Geometric-based approach for integrating VGI POIs and road networks

Integrating heterogeneous spatial data is a crucial problem for geographical information systems (GIS) applications. Previous studies mainly focus on the matching of heterogeneous road networks or heterogeneous polygonal data sets. Few literatures attempt to approach the problem of integrating the point of interest (POI) from volunteered geographic information (VGI) and professional road networks from official mapping agencies. Hence, the article proposes an approach for integrating VGI POIs and professional road networks. The proposed method first generates a POI connectivity graph by mining the linear cluster patterns from POIs. Secondly, the matching nodes between the POI connectivity graph and the associated road network are fulfilled by probabilistic relaxation and refined by a vector median filtering (VMF). Finally, POIs are aligned to the road network by an affine transformation according to the matching nodes. Experiments demonstrate that the proposed method integrates both the POIs from VGI and the POIs from official mapping agencies with the associated road networks effectively and validly, providing a promising solution for enriching professional road networks by integrating VGI POIs.     

Error‐sensitive historical GIS: Identifying areal interpolation errors in time‐series data

Historical GIS has the potential to re‐invigorate our use of statistics from historical censuses and related sources. In particular, areal interpolation can be used to create long‐run time‐series of spatially detailed data that will enable us to enhance significantly our understanding of geographical change over periods of a century or more. The difficulty with areal interpolation, however, is that the data that it generates are estimates which will inevitably contain some error. This paper describes a technique that allows the automated identification of possible errors at the level of the individual data values.     

Mapping fine-scale population distributions at the building level by integrating multisource geospatial big data

Fine-scale population distribution data at the building level play an essential role in numerous fields, for example urban planning and disaster prevention. The rapid technological development of remote sensing (RS) and geographical information system (GIS) in recent decades has benefited numerous population distribution mapping studies. However, most of these studies focused on global population and environmental changes; few considered fine-scale population mapping at the local scale, largely because of a lack of reliable data and models. As geospatial big data booms, Internet-collected volunteered geographic information (VGI) can now be used to solve this problem. This article establishes a novel framework to map urban population distributions at the building scale by integrating multisource geospatial big data, which is essential for the fine-scale mapping of population distributions. First, Baidu points-of-interest (POIs) and real-time Tencent user densities (RTUD) are analyzed by using a random forest algorithm to down-scale the street-level population distribution to the grid level. Then, we design an effective iterative building-population gravity model to map population distributions at the building level. Meanwhile, we introduce a densely inhabited index (DII), generated by the proposed gravity model, which can be used to estimate the degree of residential crowding. According to a comparison with official community-level census data and the results of previous population mapping methods, our method exhibits the best accuracy (Pearson R = .8615, RMSE = 663.3250, p < .0001). The produced fine-scale population map can offer a more thorough understanding of inner city population distributions, which can thus help policy makers optimize the allocation of resources.     

人口统计数据的空间转换

在经济和社会研究中,所要研究的区域之上经常没有数据,而这些数据需要由已知区域的数据求得,即统计数据需要空间转换,这就通常涉及到面积内插。本文从GIS的角度研究如何解决人口内插问题,认为面积内插和GIS中的叠加分析是一致的。在传统的面积内插方法的基础上是提出了基于人口真实分布的面积内插方法,并推导出了公式。同时提出了人口密度的递归算法,即把居住区分为人口稀疏地区和人口稠密地区,估计出人口稀疏地区的人口密度,就可以求出人口密集地区的人口密度;再把人口密集区分为新的人口稀疏区和密集区,此过程反复直至求出接近于人口真实分布的人口模型。     

Modeling Sensitivity to Accuracy in Classified Imagery: A Study of Areal Interpolation by Dasymetric Mapping*

Areal interpolation is the process by which data collected from one set of zonal units can be estimated for another zonal division of the same space that shares few or no boundaries with the first. In previous research, we outlined the use of dasymetric mapping for areal interpolation and showed it to be the most accurate method tested. There we used control information derived from classified satellite imagery to parameterize the dasymetric method, but because such data are rife with errors, here we extend the work to examine the sensitivity of the population estimates to error in the classified imagery. Results show the population estimates by dasymetric mapping to be largely insensitive to the errors of classification in the Landsat image when compared with the other methods tested. The dasymetric method deteriorates to the accuracy of the next worst estimate only when 40% error occurs in the classified image, a level of error that may easily be bettered within most remote sensing projects.     

Generating Surface Models of Population Using Dasymetric Mapping*

Aggregated demographic datasets are associated with analytical and cartographic problems due to the arbitrary nature of areal unit partitioning. This article describes a methodology for generating a surface‐based representation of population that mitigates these problems. This methodology uses dasymetric mapping and incorporates areal weighting and empirical sampling techniques to assess the relationship between categorical ancillary data and population distribution. As a demonstration, a 100‐meter‐resolution population surface is generated from U.S. Census block group data for the southeast Pennsylvania region. Remote‐sensing‐derived urban land‐cover data serve as ancillary data in the dasymetric mapping.     

Interpolating U.S. Decennial Census Tract Data from as Early as 1970 to 2010: A Longitudinal Tract Database

Differences in the reporting units of data from diverse sources and changes in units over time are common obstacles to analysis of areal data. We compare common approaches to this problem in the context of changes over time in the boundaries of U.S. census tracts. In every decennial census, many tracts are split, consolidated, or changed in other ways from the previous boundaries to reflect population growth or decline. We examine two interpolation methods to create a bridge between years, one that relies only on areal weighting and another that also introduces population weights. Results demonstrate that these approaches produce substantially different estimates for variables that involve population counts, but they have a high degree of convergence for variables defined as rates or averages. Finally, the article describes the Longitudinal Tract Database (LTDB), through which we are making available public-use tools to implement these methods to create estimates within 2010 tract boundaries for any tract-level data (from the census or other sources) that are available for prior years as early as 1970.     

Stochastic model-based methods for handling uncertainty in areal interpolation

Handling of uncertainty in the estimation of values from source areas to target areas poses a challenge in areal interpolation research. Stochastic model-based methods offer a basis for incorporating such uncertainty, but to date they have not been widely adopted by the GIS community. In this article, we propose one use of such methods based in the problem of interpolating count data from a source set of zones (parishes) to a more widely used target zone geography (postcode sectors). The model developed also uses ancillary statistical count data for a third set of areas nested within both source and target zones. The interpolation procedure was implemented within a Bayesian statistical framework using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods, enabling us to take account of all sources of uncertainty included in the model. Distributions of estimated values at the target zone level are presented using both summary statistics and as individual realisations selected to illustrate the degree of uncertainty in the interpolation results. We aim to describe the use of such stochastic approaches in an accessible way and to highlight the need for quantifying estimation uncertainty arising in areal interpolation, especially given the implications arising when interpolated values are used in subsequent analyses of relationships.     

Disaggregating population density of the European Union with CORINE land cover

This article describes and compares six disaggregation methods used to produce a dasymetric population density grid of the European Union at a 100 m resolution. Population data were initially available at commune level. The main ancillary information source was CORINE land cover, a land cover map distributed by the European Environment Agency. Information from the Eurostat point survey, land use/cover area frame survey, was also integrated in the parameter estimation of some of the approaches tested. Accurate population data for 1 km cell grids were provided by the Statistical Offices of Austria, Denmark, Finland, the Netherlands, Northern Ireland, Estonia and Sweden. These data provided the basic reference to quantify the accuracy of each method. The best results were obtained with a modified version of the limiting variable method (Eicher, C. and Brewer, C., 2001. Dasymetric mapping and areal interpolation: implementation and evaluation. Cartography and Geographic Information Science, 28, 125–138) that could be implemented, thanks to the national reference grids. For other methods the parameters could be estimated without using the reference grids; among them a method based on logit regression gave the best results. Compared with the traditional choropleth maps that represent a homogeneous density in each commune, the accuracy improvement of the disaggregated maps ranged between 20% and 67% (between 46% and 67% for the best method).     

A review of volunteered geographic information quality assessment methods

With the ubiquity of advanced web technologies and location-sensing hand held devices, citizens regardless of their knowledge or expertise, are able to produce spatial information. This phenomenon is known as volunteered geographic information (VGI). During the past decade VGI has been used as a data source supporting a wide range of services, such as environmental monitoring, events reporting, human movement analysis, disaster management, etc. However, these volunteer-contributed data also come with varying quality. Reasons for this are: data is produced by heterogeneous contributors, using various technologies and tools, having different level of details and precision, serving heterogeneous purposes, and a lack of gatekeepers. Crowd-sourcing, social, and geographic approaches have been proposed and later followed to develop appropriate methods to assess the quality measures and indicators of VGI. In this article, we review various quality measures and indicators for selected types of VGI and existing quality assessment methods. As an outcome, the article presents a classification of VGI with current methods utilized to assess the quality of selected types of VGI. Through these findings, we introduce data mining as an additional approach for quality handling in VGI.     

基于手机定位数据的深圳市热浪人口暴露度分析

热浪作为城市化特征灾害之一,严重影响着城市居民的生命健康。目前针对热浪的研究主要聚焦基于静态数据的时空模式、风险管理和脆弱性评价分析方向,对动态人口暴露度的研究尚少。论文基于手机定位数据,首先融合深圳市逐时人口与气温时空分布模型,揭示热浪动态人口暴露度水平;其次,构建基于7类城市兴趣点(point of interest,POI)与不同时段人口分布的地理加权回归模型,初步分析了热浪环境下POI对人群行为模式的影响机制。结果显示：① 相比于基准时段(2018年7月28日12:00~18:00),2018年7月26日至8月1日热浪平均辐射范围在7月29日以8.66倍速增长,至7月30日则以18.93倍速跃至峰值,覆盖区域整体呈现西部高于东部、南部低于北部的特征;② 人口在不同时段均表现为明显的带状聚集分布态势,且人口暴露度与气温和人口的动态演变紧密关联,其暴露度同热浪扩散幅度相似,总体呈2.29倍等比增长,辐射范围包括南山区、福田区、罗湖区等城市商业、工业、住宅中心人口密集区域;③ 同类POI在不同时刻、不同POI在相同时刻对人群减少热浪暴露的移动交互行为具有明显的时空驱动机制差异及选择偏好特征。在持续性城市化背景下,该研究方法可为同类的城市灾害人口暴露度分析提供一定的科学参考。     

The recent advancement in digital terrain analysis and modeling

Volunteered Geographic Information (VGI) represents a growing source of potentially valuable data for many applications, including land cover map validation. It is still an emerging field and many different approaches can be used to take value from VGI, but also many pros and cons are related to its use. Therefore, since it is timely to get an overview of the subject, the aim of this article is to review the use of VGI as reference data for land cover map validation. The main platforms and types of VGI that are used and that are potentially useful are analysed. Since quality is a fundamental issue in map validation, the quality procedures used by the platforms that collect VGI to increase and control data quality are reviewed and a framework for addressing VGI quality assessment is proposed. A review of cases where VGI was used as an additional data source to assist in map validation is made, as well as cases where only VGI was used, indicating the procedures used to assess VGI quality and fitness for use. A discussion and some conclusions are drawn on best practices, future potential and the challenges of the use of VGI for land cover map validation.     

An approach for estimating vaccination coverage for communities using school-level data and population mobility information

Childhood vaccination data are made available at a school level in some U.S. states. These data can be geocoded and may be considered as having a high spatial resolution. However, a school only represents the destination location for the set of students who actually reside and interact within some larger areal region, creating a spatial mismatch. Public school districts are often used to represent these regions, but fail to account for private schools and school of choice programs. We offer a new approach for estimating childhood vaccination coverage rates at a community level by integrating school level data with population commuting information. The resulting mobility-adjusted vaccine coverage estimates resolve the spatial mismatch problem and are more aligned with the geographic scale at which public health policies are implemented. We illustrate the utility of our approach using a case study on diphtheria, tetanus, and pertussis (DTP) vaccination coverage for kindergarten students in California. The modeled community-level DTP coverage estimates yield a statewide coverage of 92.37%, which is highly similar to the 92.44% coverage rate calculated from the original school-level data.     

自发地理信息在灾后恢复监测中的应用研究框架

文章探讨了如何有效利用自发地理信息（Volunteered Geographic Information, VGI）大数据促进灾后恢复监测工作。首先概述了国内外VGI相关研究的发展现状,明确了VGI用于灾后恢复监测研究的不足,然后提出了一个基于VGI大数据的灾后恢复监测应用的研究框架,助力于灾后恢复监测各类具体恢复目标（如旅游业恢复、工商业恢复、生活常态恢复）的实现。该研究框架包含数据获取、数据质量控制和数据挖掘3个核心组成部分。其中,数据获取对象以VGI为主,以传统官方权威数据为辅;数据质量控制主要是通过模糊逻辑专家系统和人工神经网络（深度学习）确保VGI适用性;数据挖掘则是以变革式范例为理论基础,利用定量和定性结合的方法调查灾区基建、经济和安全3个灾后恢复主要方面的状态。最后,文章还讨论了当前利用VGI大数据促进灾后恢复监测所存在的一些局限性,包括VGI来源的可持续性问题、各VGI平台应用程序接口的数据获取限制问题和VGI应用所涉及的用户隐私问题。     

Volunteered geographic information quality assessment using trust and reputation modelling in land administration systems in developing countries

This article presents an innovative approach to establish the quality and credibility of Volunteered Geographic Information (VGI) such that it can be considered in Land Administration Systems (LAS) on a Fit for Purpose (FFP) basis. A participatory land information system can provide affordable and timely FFP information about land and its resources. However, the establishment of such a system involves more than just technical solutions and administrative procedures: many social, economic and political aspects must be considered. Innovative approaches like VGI can help address the lack of accurate, reliable and FFP land information for LAS, but integration of such sources relies on the quality and credibility of VGI. Verifying volunteer efforts can be difficult without reference to ground truth: a novel Trust and Reputation Modelling methodology is proposed as a suitable technique to effect such VGI data set validation. This method has been applied to successfully demonstrate that VGI can produce accurate and reliable data sets which can be used to conduct regular systematic updates of geographic information in official systems. It relies on a view that the public can police themselves in establishing proxy measures of VGI quality thus facilitating VGI to be used on a FFP basis in LAS.