Thermal comfort of man in different urban environments

Summary On July 29, 1985, a hot summer day, biometeorological measurements were performed simultaneously in three different urban structures within the city of Munich and in the trunk space of a nearby tall spruce forest. Based on the results of these experiments the following thermophysiologically relevant biometeorological indices were calculated: Predicted mean vote, skin wettedness and physiologically equivalent temperature. These three indices are derived from different models for the human energy balance. They allow the assessment of the thermal components of the microclimates at the selected sites with regard to application in urban planning. The results quantitatively show the great heat stress in the urban structure street canyon, exposed to south, whereas in the trunk space of the tall spruce forest there is nearly an optimal climate even on hot summer days. Between these extremes the results for street canyon, exposed to north show a little higher heat load than for backyard with trees.

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Zusammenfassung An einem heißen Sommertag, dem 29. Juli 1985, wurden in drei Stadtstrukturen in München und im Stammraum eines nahegelegenen Fichtenhochwaldes zeitgleich biometeorologische Messungen durchgeführt. Mit den Meßergebnissen wurden folgende thermophysiologisch relevante biometeorologische Indizes berechnet: Predicted mean vote, Hautbenetzungsgrad und physiologisch äquivalente Temperatur. Diese drei Indizes beruhen auf verschiedenen Modellen zur menschlichen Energiebilanz. Mit den drei Indizes wurden die thermischen Komponenten der Mikroklimate an den ausgewählten Meßplätzen im Hinblick auf Stadtplanungsaufgaben bewertet. Die Ergebnisse zeigen quantitativ die relativ große Hitzebelastung bei der Stadtstruktur Straßenschlucht, nach Süd exponiert, während im Stammraum des Fichtenhochwaldes selbst an heißen Sommertagen nahezu optimale Bedingungen herrschen. Zwischen diesen Extremen liegen die Ergebnisse für die anderen Meßplätze, wobei für Straßenschlucht, nach Nord exponiert die Wärmebelastung etwas höher als für Innenhof mit Bäumen ist.

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With 6 Figures     

Similarity of atmospheric Reynolds shear stress and heat flux fluctuations over a rough surface

Horizontal u and vertical w velocity fluctuations have been measured together with temperature fluctuations in the atmospheric surface layer, at a small height above a wheat crop canopy. Marginal probability density functions are presented for both individual fluctuations u, w, and for the instantaneous Reynolds stress uw, and heat fluxes w and u. Probability density functions of the velocity fluctuations deviate less significantly from the Gaussian form than the probability density of temperature. There appears to be closer similarity between statistics of the instantaneous heat fluxes than between the momentum flux and either of the heat fluxes investigated. The mean momentum flux receives equal contributions from the events referred to as ejections and sweeps in laboratory boundary layers. Sweeps provide the largest contribution to the heat fluxes.     

The atmospheric tide as a continuous spectrum: Lunar semidiurnal tide in surface pressure

Summary The standard equations for the theory of atmospheric tides are solved here by an integral representation on the continuous spectrum of free oscillations. The model profile of back-ground temperature is that of the U.S. Standard Atmosphere in the lower and middle atmosphere, and in the lower thermosphere, above which an isothermal top extends to arbitrarily great heights. The top is warm enough to bring both the Lamb and the Pekeris modes into the continuous spectrum.Computations are made for semidiurnal lunar tidal pressure at sea level at the equator, and the contributions are partitioned according to vertical as well as horizontal structure. Almost all the response is taken up by the Lamb and Pekeris modes of the slowest westward-propagating gravity wave. At sea level, the Lamb-mode response is direct and is relatively insensitive to details of the temperature profile. The Pekeris mode at sea level has an indirect response-in competition with the Lamb mode-and, as has been known since the time of its discovery, it is quite sensitive to the temperature profile, in particular to stratopause temperature. In the standard atmosphere the Lamb mode contributes about +0.078 mb to tidal surface pressure at the equator and the Pekeris mode about –0.048 mb.The aim of this investigation is to illustrate some consequences of representing the tide in terms of the structures of free oscillations. To simplify that task as much as possible, all modifying influences were omitted, such as background wind and ocean or earth tide. Perhaps the main defect of this paper's implementation of the free-oscillation spectrum is that, in contrast to the conventional expansion in the structures of forced oscillations, it does not include dissipation, either implicity or explicity, and thus does not satisfy causality. Dissipation could be added implicity by means of an impedance condition, for example, which would cause up-going energy flux to exceed downgoing flux at the base of the isothermal top layer. To achieve complete causality, however, the dissipation must be modeled explicity. Nevertheless, since the Lamb and Pekeris modes are strongly trapped in the lower and middle atmosphere, where dissipation is rather weak (except possibly in the surface boundary layer), more realistic modeling is not likely to change the broad features of the present results.Symbols a earth's mean radius; expansion coefficient in (5.3) - b recursion variable in (7.4); proximity to resonance in (9.2) - c sound speed in (2.2); specific heatc _p in (2.2) - f Coriolis parameter 2sin in (2.2) - g standard surface gravity - h equivalent depth - i ; discretization index in (7.3) - j index for horizontal structure - k index for horizontal structure; upward unit vectork in (2.2) - m wave number in longitude - n spherical-harmonic degree; number of grid layers in a model layer - p tidal pressure perturbation; background pressurep ₀ - q heating function (energy per mass per time) - r tidal state vector in (2.1) - s tidal entropy perturbation; background entropys ₀ - t time - u tidal horizontal velocityu - w tidal vertical component of velocity - x excitation vector defined in (2.3); vertical coordinate lnp _*/p ₀ [except in (3.8), where it is lnp /p ₀] - y vertical-structure function in (7.1) - z geopotential height - A constant defined in (6.2) - C spherical-harmonic expansion coefficient in (3.6) - D vertical cross section defined in (5.6) and (5.9) - E eigenstate vector - F vertical-structure function for eigenstate pressure in (3.2) [re-defined with WKB scaling in (7.2)] - G vertical-structure function for eigenstate vertical velocity in (3.2) [re-defined with WKB scaling in (7.2)] - H pressure-scale height - I mode intensity defined in (8.1) - K quadratic form defined in (4.4) - L quadratic form defined in (4.4); horizontal-structure magnification factor defined in (5.11) - M vertical-structure magnification factor defined in (4.6) - P eigenstate pressure in (3.2); tidal pressure in (6.2) - R tidal state vector in (5.1) - S eigenstate entropy in (3.2); spherical surface area, in differential dS - T background molecular-scale (NOAA, 1976) absolute temperatureT ₀ - U eigenstate horizontal velocityU in (3.2); coefficient in (7.3) - V horizontal-structure functionV for eigenstate horizontal velocity in (3.2); recursion variable in (7.3) - W eigenstate vertical velocity in (3.2) - X excitation vector in (5.1) - Y surface spherical harmonic in (3.7) - Z Hough function defined in (3.6) - +dH/dz - (1––)/2 - Kronecker delta; Dirac delta; correction operator in (7.6) - equilibrium tide elevation - (square-root of Hough-function eigenvalue) - ratio of specific gas constant to specific heat for air=2/7 - longitude - - - background density ₀ - eigenstate frequency in (3.1) - proxy for heating functionq =c _P/t - latitude - tide frequency - operator for the limitz - horizontal-structure function for eigenstate pressure in (3.2) - Hough function defined in (6.2) - earth's rotation speed - horizontal gradient operator - ()₀ background variable - ()_* surface value of background variable - () value at base of isothermal top layer - Õ state vector with zerow-component - , energy product defined in (2.4) - | | energy norm - ()^* complex conjugate With 10 Figures     

Wind characteristics in the lowest 340 m of the atmospheric boundary layer at Pune,India

Wind characteristics in the lowest 340 m (agl) of the atmospheric boundary layer at Pune (18°32N, 73°51E, 559 m ASL) have been investigated using the pilot balloon wind observations obtained during the summer monsoon seasons of 1976, 1979 and 1980. Variations in the zonal and meridional components of wind at the surface, 40, 150 and 340 m (agl) have been described. Frequency distribution of the zonal component showed an unimodal character at the surface, which gradually approached a multimodal character at 340 m. The distribution pattern of the wind components was, by and large, normal. Spectral analysis of the wind components showed that the spectral energy was predominantly shared by 5–7 and 2–3 day periods.     

Numerical Simulation of Strongly Stratified Flow Over a Three-Dimensional Hill

A numerical study of stably stratified flow over a three-dimensional hill is presented. Large-eddy simulation is used here to examine in detail the laboratory experimental flows described in the landmark work of Hunt and Snyder about stratified flow over a hill. The flow is linearly stratified and U/Nh is varied from 0.2 to 1.0. Here N and U are the buoyancy frequency and freestream velocity respectively, and h is the height of the hill. The Reynolds number based on the hill height is varied from 365 to 2968. The characteristic flow patterns at various values of U/Nh have been obtained and they are in good agreement with earlier theoretical and experimental results. It is shown that the flow field cannot be predicted by Drazin's theory when recirculation exists at the leeside of the hill even at UNh 1. The wake structure agrees well with a two-dimensional wake assumption when U/Nh 1 but lee waves start to influence the wake structure as U/Nh increases. The dividing-streamline heights obtained in the simulation are in accordance with experimental results and Sheppard's formula. The energy loss along the dividing streamline due to friction/turbulence approximately offsets the energy gained from pressure field. When lee waves are present, linear theory always underestimates the amplitude and overestimates the wavelength of three-dimensional lee waves. The simulated variations of drag coefficients with the parameterK (=ND/ U) are qualitatively consistent with experimental data and linear theory. Here D is the depth of the tank.     

Wind and wind forces in a plantation spruce forest

Observations have been made of the tubulent structure within and above a dense (LAI=10.2) plantation spruce forest along with measurements of the movement of individual trees. The mean statistics of the turbulence and the turbulence spectra are compared with observations in other crops and complementary wind-tunnel studies using 175 scale plastic trees. The measurements show that momentum transport and the subsequent motion of the trees is dominated by intermittent sweep/ejection events associated with honami waves moving across the forest. The trees themselves act as forced damped harmonic oscillators and appear to short circuit the normal turbulent energy dissipation process by efficiently absorbing energy at their resonant frequencies. It is argued that understanding the nature and formation of honami waves over forests and crops is a crucial problem in agricultural and forest meteorology because of their important role both in turbulent transport and in causing wind damage.     

On characteristics of wind direction fluctuations in the surface layer

It is shown that the ratio of standard deviation of lateral velocity to the friction velocity, /u _*, and therefore wind direction fluctuations, are sensitive to mesoscale terrain properties. Under neutral conditions, /u _* is almost 40% larger in rolling terrain than over a horizontal surface. In the lee of a low mountain, the fluctuations may be 2.5 times as strong as over horizontal terrain. In contrast, vertical velocity fluctuations are little influenced by mesoscale terrain features.Now with Air Weather Service, Offutt AFB, Omaha, Nebraska.     

A preliminary study of the carbon-isotopic content of ambient formic acid and two selected sources: Automobile exhaust and formicine ants

Relatively large quantities (1 mg) of formic acid have been collected from the atmosphere and subjected to carbon-isotopic analysis, as a means of source discrimination. Ambient formic acid was captured on Ca(OH)₂-treated filters using a high-volume sampler. The collection method was not only efficient (>96%), but also appears to have low artifact production.Most of the samples (36 out of 52) were collected over a two-year period at the summit of Mount Lemmon, Arizona, where a strong seasonality in HCOOH mixing ratio was observed (0.2 ppb during winter months to 1.5 ppb in the summer). Other collection sites included the Oregon coast, Colorado Rockies, urban Tucson, and the North Dakota prairie. The carbon-13 content of atmospheric HCOOH was found to be have little variation (–18 to –25), regardless of location or season. This is consistent with a single dominant source of formic acid. The carbon-14 measurements of 6 Mount Lemmon samples showed high levels of modern carbon (93–113% modern).The emissions from formicine ants and automobile combustion were selected as two other potential sources for isotopic analysis. The HCOOH collected from auto exhaust was much more depleted in¹³C than the atmospheric samples, with a ¹³C of –28.0 and –48.6 from a leaded and unleaded automobile, respectively. Formicine ants, on the other hand, ranged from –17.2 to –20.6.     

Red dust rain within the Spanish Mediterranean area

Dust rain belongs to the climatological conditions of the Iberian Peninsula's Mediterranean seaboard. Traditionally known as muddy' or bloody rains, red dust rain has become a topical issue as a result of more frequent rainfall of this kind in recent years. In spite of the difficulties that studying this phenomenon involves, owing to the lack of systematically kept records at meteorological observatories, details are provided of the high frequency of such phenomena within the Spanish Mediterranean area, using records from other phenological sources. The study analyzes the chemical composition of red dust rain and the atmospheric factors giving rise to such phenomena. Whether there is a relationship betwen the higher frequency of dust rain and possible changes in global atmospheric circulation is as yet unclear.     

Orbital forcing of Arctic climate: mechanisms of climate response and implications for continental glaciation

Progress in understanding how terrestrial ice volume is linked to Earths orbital configuration has been impeded by the cost of simulating climate system processes relevant to glaciation over orbital time scales (10³–10⁵ years). A compromise is usually made to represent the climate system by models that are averaged over one or more spatial dimensions or by three-dimensional models that are limited to simulating particular snapshots in time. We take advantage of the short equilibration time (10 years) of a climate model consisting of a three-dimensional atmosphere coupled to a simple slab ocean to derive the equilibrium climate response to accelerated variations in Earths orbital configuration over the past 165,000 years. Prominent decreases in ice melt and increases in snowfall are simulated during three time intervals near 26, 73, and 117 thousand years ago (ka) when aphelion was in late spring and obliquity was low. There were also significant decreases in ice melt and increases in snowfall near 97 and 142 ka when eccentricity was relatively large, aphelion was in late spring, and obliquity was high or near its long term mean. These glaciation-friendly time intervals correspond to prominent and secondary phases of terrestrial ice growth seen within the marine ¹⁸O record. Both dynamical and thermal effects contribute to the increases in snowfall during these periods, through increases in storm activity and the fraction of precipitation falling as snow. The majority of the mid- to high latitude response to orbital forcing is organized by the properties of sea ice, through its influence on radiative feedbacks that nearly double the size of the orbital forcing as well as its influence on the seasonal evolution of the latitudinal temperature gradient.     

An observational aircraft-based study of sea-breeze frontogenesis

In the summer of 1988/89 flights were carried out in the Coorong coastal area of South Australia to investigate sea-breeze fronts. The flights yielded data sets of the structure of the fronts in the cross-frontal direction with a spatial resolution of approximately 3 m. The study is focused on the budgets of sensible and latent heat in the vicinity of the front and on frontogenesis/frontolysis processes which are closely related to budget considerations.The frontogenesis relationships and the budgets were established on a 2 km length scale by low-pass filtering of the space series. As the wind components were measured with high accuracy, all processes which determine frontogenesis could be evaluated and are displayed in x,z-cross-sections: these are the confluence, shear and diabatic effects, all of which play a role in q/x-, q/z-, /x- as well as /z-frontogenesis. A detailed analysis is given for two different states of frontal development. The presented results shed much light on the governing physical processes in the frontal region with strong emphasis on the effects of confluence-generated updrafts, on shear instabilities causing bulges and clefts in the frontal surface as well as producing the elevated frontal head, and on processes related to differential heating and moistening.     

On the cumulative frequency distributions ofk-day period amounts of precipitation for any station in The Netherlands,while k≧30

Summary A simple method of representing cumulative frequency distributions ofk-day period amounts of precipitation (30k1800), deduced from observations at Hoofddorp during 87 years and from observations at Winterswijk during 73 years, by means of cumulative Poisson distributions, had been developed. Poisson's constant appeared to depend linearly onk only, while the Poisson unitq appeared to be only proportional to the annual variation.In this paper it is shown that the representation of observed cumulative frequency distributions with the aid of Poisson distributions is true for any station in The Netherlands in the interval 30k1800. A map with isopleths of -values fork=360 presents a simple picture, so that for any station an -value fork=360 can be estimated. For the process of representation the meank-day period amount of precipitation is also necessary. This value may be obtained from a map for each of the 12 months, each map covered with isohyetal lines, which give a distribution of the monthly precipitation.

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Zusammenfassung Es wurde eine Methode entwickelt, um in einfacher Weise Summenfunktionen vonk-tägigen Niederschlagsmengen (30k1800), welche aus Beobachtungen in Hoofddorp während 87 Jahren und in Winterswijk während 73 Jahren angestellt worden sind, durch kumulative Poissonsche Häufigkeitsverteilungen darzustellen. Dabei ergab sich, daß die Poissonsche Konstante nur linear vonk abhängig ist, während die Poissonsche Einheitq sich als proportional zum Jahresgang erwies.In der vorliegenden Untersuchung wird nun gezeigt, daß die Darstellung der beobachteten kumulativen Häufigkeitsverteilungen mit Hilfe von Poisson-Verteilungen für irgendeine Station in den Niederlanden im Bereich von 30k1800 gültig ist. Eine Karte mit Isoplethen der -Werte fürk=360 ergibt ein einfaches Bild, aus dem für jede beliebige Station ein -Wert fürk=360 abgelesen werden kann. Für eine solche Darstellung muß auch die Niederschlagsmenge derk-tägigen Perioden bekannt sein; diese Werte erhält man aus monatlichen Isohyeten-Karten, die die monatliche Niederschlagsverteilung wiedergeben.

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Résumé On avait développé une méthode pour représenter d'une façon simple les distributions des sommes cumulées dek jours (30k1800) des quantités de précipitations déduites des observations faites à Hoofddorp pendant 87 ans et à Winterswijk pendant 73 ans. On avait démontré que la constante de Poisson ne dépend dek que linéairement et que l'unité de Poissonq est proportionnelle à la variation annuelle.De la présente étude ressort que, dans l'intervalle de 30k1800, la représentation des distributions des fréquences cumulées observées au moyen des formules de Poisson est valable pour une station quelconque aux Pays-Bas. Une carte d'isoplèthes de la valeur pourk=360 donne une image suffisamment simple pour que la valeur d'une station quelconque aux Pays-Bas puisse être déterminée sans difficulté. Pour une telle représentation il faut connaître également les moyennes des quantités des périodes dek jours de la précipitation. Ces valeurs peuvent se déduire de cartes mensuelles des isohyètes moyennes.

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Dedicated to Dr.Anders K. Ångström on the occasion of his 70th birthday.     

Estimation of the Monin-Obukhov similarity functions from a spectral model

From measured one-dimensional spectra of velocity and temperature variance, the universal functions of the Monin-Obukhov similarity theory are calculated for the range –2 z/L + 2. The calculations show good agreement with observations with the exception of a range –1 z/L 0 in which the function _m , i.e., the nondimensional mean shear, is overestimated. This overestimation is shown to be caused by neglecting the spectral divergence of a vertical transport of turbulent kinetic energy. The integral of the spectral divergence over the entire wave number space is suggested to be negligibly small in comparison with production and dissipation of turbulent kinetic energy.Notation a,b,c contants (see Equations (–4)) - C_i constants i=u, v, w, (see Equation (5) - k_me,k_mT peak wave numbers of 3-d moel spectra of turbulent kinetic energy and of temperature variance, respectively - k_mi peak wave numbers of 1-d spectra of velocity components i=u, v, w and of temperature fluctuations i= - k_sb, k_c characteristics wave numbers of energy-feeding by mechanical effects being modified by mean buoyancy, and of convective energy feeding, respectively - L Monin-Obukhov length - % MathType!MTEF!2!1!+-% feaafeart1ev1aaatCvAUfeBSjuyZL2yd9gzLbvyNv2CaerbuLwBLn% hiov2DGi1BTfMBaeXafv3ySLgzGmvETj2BSbqefm0B1jxALjhiov2D% aebbfv3ySLgzGueE0jxyaibaiiYdd9qrFfea0dXdf9vqai-hEir8Ve% ea0de9qq-hbrpepeea0db9q8as0-LqLs-Jirpepeea0-as0Fb9pgea% 0lrP0xe9Fve9Fve9qapdbaqaaeGacaGaaiaabeqaamaabaabcaGcba% Gabeivayaaraaaaa!3C5B!\[{\rm{\bar T}}\] difference of mean temperature and mean potential temperature - T* Monin-Obukhov temperature scale - velocity of mean flow in positive x-direction - u* friction velocity - u, v, w components of velocity fluctuations - z height above ground - von Kármanán constant - temperature fluctuation - _m nondimensional mean shear - _H nondimensional mean temperature gradient - nondimensional rate of lolecular dissipation of turbulent kinetic energy - _D nondimensional divergence of vertical transports of turbulent linetic energy     

Shear convection

The paper discusses convection in the presence of wind shear, a condition analysed previously by Zilitinkevich (1971). This region (between the forced and fully developed convective layers) was also considered by Betchov and Yaglom (1971). In the present paper the author endeavors to develop a consistent analysis from the basic hypothesis of a very weak interaction between the vertical convective motions and mechanical turbulence, employing a new similarity model of the turbulent regime. Additional experimental data are introduced. Unlike the notation used in the references quoted above, this regime is termed shear convection rather than free convection. The latter is traditionally regarded as synonymous with the terms pure or fully developed convection.     

The greening of the McGill Paleoclimate Model. Part I: Improved land surface scheme with vegetation dynamics

The formulation of a new land surface scheme (LSS) with vegetation dynamics for coupling to the McGill Paleoclimate Model (MPM) is presented. This LSS has the following notable improvements over the old version: (1) parameterization of deciduous and evergreen trees by using the models climatology and the output of the dynamic global vegetation model, VECODE (Brovkin et al. in Ecological Modelling 101:251–261 (1997), Global Biogeochemical Cycles 16(4):1139, (2002)); (2) parameterization of tree leaf budburst and leaf drop by using the models climatology; (3) parameterization of the seasonal cycle of the grass leaf area index; (4) parameterization of the seasonal cycle of tree leaf area index by using the time-dependent growth of the leaves; (5) calculation of land surface albedo by using vegetation-related parameters, snow depth and the models climatology. The results show considerable improvement of the models simulation of the present-day climate as compared with that simulated in the original physically-based MPM. In particular, the strong seasonality of terrestrial vegetation and the associated land surface albedo variations are in good agreement with several satellite observations of these quantities. The application of this new version of the MPM (the green MPM) to Holocene millennial-scale climate changes is described in a companion paper, Part II.

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A Model to Calculate what a Remote Sensor ‘Sees’ of an Urban Surface

Whilst the measurement of radiation emissions from a surface is relatively straightforward, correct interpretation and proper utilization of the information requires that the surface area seen be known accurately. This becomes non-trivial when the target is an urban surface, due to its complex three-dimensional form and the different thermal, radiative and moisture properties of its myriad surface facets. The geometric structure creates shade patterns in combination with the solar beam and obscures portions of the surface from the sensor, depending on where it is pointing and its field-of-view (FOV). A model to calculate these surface-sensor-sun relations (SUM) is described. SUM is tested against field and scale model observations, and theoretical calculations, and found to perform well. It can predict the surface area seen by a sensor of known FOV pointing in any direction when placed at any point in space above a specified urban surface structure. Moreover, SUM can predict the view factors of the roof, wall and ground facets seen and whether they are sunlit or shaded at any location and time of day. SUM can be used to determine the optimal placement and orientation of remote sensors to study urban radiation emissions; if the facet temperatures are known or modelled it can calculate the average temperature of the system, and it can determine the directional variation of temperature (anisotropy) due to any particular surface-sensor-sun geometric combination. The present surface geometry used in SUM is relatively simple, but there is scope to make it increasingly realistic.     

Les bilans énergétiques approchés en variables λ, ϕ,p ett

Résumé L'auteur montre comment il faut déduire les formes approchées des bilans énergétiques des mouvements atmosphériques en variables , ,p ett de leurs formes générales exactes. Il a tenu compte de la variabilité de la pression à la surface du globe.

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Summary It is shown how the approximate energy equations of atmospheric motions expressed with the independent variables , ,p andt must bederived from their exact general form. The variability of surface pressure has been taken into account.

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Zusammenfassung Es wird gezeigt, wie sich Näherungsformeln der Energiebilanzen der atmosphärischen Bewegungsvorgänge durch die unabhängigen Variablen , ,p undt von ihrer exakten Formulierung ableiten lassen; dabei wird der Veränderlichkeit des Luftdrucks an der Erdoberfläche Rechnung getragen.

     

Three million years of monsoon variability over the northern Sahara

We present a 3 million year record of aeolian dust supply into the eastern Mediterranean Sea, based on hematite contents derived from magnetic properties of sediments from Ocean Drilling Program Site 967. Our record has an average temporal resolution of 400 years. Geochemical data validate this record of hematite content as a proxy for the supply of aeolian dust from the Sahara. We deduce that the aeolian hematite in eastern Mediterranean sediments derives from the eastern Algerian, Libyan, and western Egyptian lowlands located north of the central Saharan watershed (21°N). In corroboration of earlier work, we relate dust flux minima to penetration of the African summer monsoon front to the north of the central Saharan watershed. This would have enhanced soil humidity and vegetation cover in the source regions, in agreement with results from green Sahara climate models. Our results indicate that this northward monsoon penetration recurred during insolation maxima throughout the last 3 million years. As would be expected, this orbital precession-scale mechanism is modulated on both short (100-kyr) and long (400-kyr) eccentricity time scales. We also observe a strong expression of the 41-kyr (obliquity) cycle, which we discuss in terms of high- and low-latitude mechanisms that involve Southern Hemisphere meridional temperature contrasts and shifts in the latitudes of the tropics, respectively. We also observe a marked increase in sub-Milankovitch variability around the mid-Pleistocene transition (0.95 Ma), which suggests a link between millennial-scale climate variability, including monsoon dynamics, and the size of northern hemisphere ice sheets.     

The front of 8 October 1987 — Predictions of three mesoscale models

Summary The forntal passage of 8 October 1987, which was extensively sampled during the first intense observation period of the German Front Experiment, is simulated by aid of three mesoscale models. The results are intercompared and held against the manually and objectively analysed observations of the meso and meso- scales, respectively. The orographic impact is studied by comparing model runs with full and cut-off Alps. Implications regarding similar efforts in the future conclude the paper.With 11 Figures     

In Search of Warmer Climates? The Impact of Climate Change on Flows of British Tourists

This paper investigates the impact of climate change on the chosendestinations of Britishtourists. Destinations are characterised in terms of attractors includingclimate variables, traveland accommodation costs. These variables are used to explain the currentobserved pattern ofoverseas travel in terms of a model based upon the idea of utilitymaximisation. The approachpermits the trade-offs between climate and holiday expenditure to be analysedand effectivelyidentifies the optimal climate for generating tourism. The findings are usedto predict the impactof various climate change scenarios on popular tourist destinations.