承灾体易损性评估模型与滑坡灾害风险度指标

承灾体易损性定量评估是制约滑坡灾害风险评估研究的瓶颈问题。为此,以滑坡体冲击冲量为致灾强度指标、建筑物整体抗剪力为抗灾性能指标,推导出典型承灾体易损性定量评估模型。在此基础上,考虑滑体运动特征参数随机性对易损性的影响,提出风险曲线和最大风险度指标的概念,以反映滑坡灾害成灾全过程中不确定性对灾害后果的影响。并采用该模型分析了坡体几何特征参数、受灾体空间位置以及受灾体抗灾性能对易损性的影响规律。将风险度指标应用于算例分析,并与以往方法进行了比较,分析发现,建立的易损性定量评估模型可以反映二维简化情况下受灾体毁损程度与各种影响因素之间关系的基本规律,为易损性定量评估提供了一种途径。     

基于承灾体易损性的县域单元地质灾害风险评估

县域单元的地质灾害风险评估是宏观层面资源环境承载能力监测预警的重要组成部分,可以作为行政单元生态文明建设考核的依据,对国土空间规划编制也具有重要的参考价值。针对承灾体易损性定量评价这一难点,尝试改进笔者以前的评估方法,以地质灾害易发区内的人口和资产作为承灾体统计,并根据省级单元地质灾害调查数据进行校正;以原国土资源部权威灾情数据与承灾体的比值作为易损性,依据全国样本值进行了承灾体易损性分级标准划定,结合地质灾害危险性区划完成全国2869个县域单元的地质灾害风险评估。结果表明,全国共有162个地质灾害高风险单元,701个中风险单元和2006个低风险单元。地质灾害高风险区集中分布于横断山区、乌蒙山区、秦岭—大巴山区、长白山区等地。     

Natural hazards in Central Java Province,Indonesia: an overview

Central Java Province, Indonesia, suffers from natural hazard processes such as land subsidence, coastal inundation, flood, volcanic eruption, earthquake, tsunami, and landslide. The occurrence of each kind of natural hazard is varied according to the intensity of geo-processes. It is necessary to learn from the historical record of coastal inundation, flood, volcanic eruption, earthquake, tsunami, and landslide hazards in Central Java Province to address issues of comprehensive hazard mitigation and management action. Through the understanding about the nature and spatial distribution of natural hazards, treatments can be done to reduce the risks. This paper presents the natural hazard phenomena in Central Java Province and provides critical information for hazard mitigation and reduction.     

Landslide hazard and risk assessment and their application in risk management and landuse planning in eastern flank of Menoreh Mountains,Yogyakarta Province,Indonesia

The Menoreh Mountains in Yogyakarta are severely affected by landslides. Due to the high population densities, mass movements are generally damaging and fatal. More than other Javanese mountains, the Menoreh Mountains cumulate several factors causing landslides. Therefore, it is necessary to evaluate the ways to map landslide risk in order to improve the risk mitigation. The objectives of this paper are to provide landslide hazard and risk assessment that will be useful for risk prevention and landuse planning in the Menoreh Mountains. So far, risk management has been developed by the Research Centre for Disasters Gadjah Mada University in collaboration with the Regional Development Planner (BAPPEDA), which carries out fundamental and applied researches. The results of the studies have been integrated in the risk prevention and landuse planning in order to improve the integrated landslide mitigation programme.     

浅谈我国的地质灾害风险评估

针对我国地质灾害风险评估研究现状,着重讨论了对我国地质灾害风险评估的理解,提出了中国地质灾害风险评估为灾害体易发性、承灾体的易损性、这两者耦合关系评估的结构组成及结构公式,并根据其研究对象、内容、目的等方面情况提出了地质灾害风险评估的完整概念。     

区域滑坡灾害预测预警与风险评价

区域滑坡灾害预测预警是滑坡灾害研究领域的难点和热点。过去10多年来在这方面的研究主要集中在区域降雨与地质环境的结合方面。文章总结了目前国内外滑坡灾害预测预报、预警和风险管理研究现状,认为把滑坡灾害预警预报与风险管理相结合是减灾防灾的需要,也是今后该领域研究的发展趋势。文章从区域滑坡灾害空间预测、时间预警预报的角度提出了滑坡灾害预测预报的分类和理论基础,并在此基础上,利用MapGIS软件平台进行二次开发,建立了基于WebGIS的滑坡灾害信息管理系统和实时预警发布系统。以2004年"云娜"台风期间浙江省永嘉县滑坡灾害预警预报为例,进行了滑坡危险性预测、人口易损性预测、经济易损性预测到风险预测的实例研究。     

基于模糊数学的地质灾害危险性评价

陕西省引汉济渭工程跨越秦岭构造剥蚀山地和断陷盆地,地质环境条件差,发育地质灾害点72处。选取地质环境条件、地质灾害发育现状和地质灾害预测为评价指标,分别赋予隶属度值;将工程剖分为284个评价单元,采用模糊数学综合评判法计算每个单元的隶属度值,确定危险性小的单元255个,危险性中等的单元29个;说明工程主要位于危险性小的区段。     

The origin and distribution of nitrate in groundwater from village wells in Kotagede, Yogyakarta, Indonesia

The causes and nature of nitrate pollution of wells in a village within Kotagede, a subdistrict of the city of Yogyakarta, Indonesia, were investigated in a detailed hydrological study. Nitrate concentrations in groundwater frequently exceeded the WHO recommended limit of 50 mg L^− 1. Groundwater nitrate concentrations were measured over a 19-month period in monitoring wells and in piezometers placed strategically in relation to sewage tanks within the village. Results indicate that the tanks are major sources of nitrate in the groundwater and that the input is markedly dependent on rainfall, resulting in a surge of nitrate into the groundwater at the beginning of each wet season. That the tanks are a major source was confirmed by measuring nitrate in soil cores obtained by augering close to selected tanks. Washrooms, where people wash themselves, are not significant sources of nitrate. Faecal coliform counts in groundwater from a random selection of wells are very high. The results have implications for the siting of wells and toilets within villages in Indonesia. Received, January 1999/Revised, August 1999/Accepted, August 1999     

地下水脆弱性和风险性评价研究进展综述

地下水脆弱性和风险性评价与区划是区域地下水资源保护的重要依据。本文回顾了各国地下水脆弱性评价与编图研究工作以及地下水污染风险评价研究的最新进展,提出地下水污染风险评价的框架及其指标体系,最后指出今后需要深入研究的问题。     

四川青川县碾子崩塌风险性评价

2008年5月12日四川省发生8级地震,地震对青川县造成了巨大破坏,同时引发了大量的次生地质灾害。本文以碾子村五社崩塌灾害点为研究评价对象,在工程地质条件、危岩体分布特征、变形破坏模式的研究基础之上,计算了研究区典型危岩体的稳定性及破坏概率。在野外滚石实验的基础上,运用专业软件模拟了失稳块石的运动轨迹,得到了落石运动过程中的速度、跳高及动能,并进一步确定了崩塌的影响范围。在野外调查和收集当地社会经济资料的基础上,对崩塌的易损性及风险性进行了评价,并根据灾害特点及评价结果提出了相应的防灾减灾措施。     

城市泥石流风险评价探讨

探讨了城市泥石流风险评价的系统方法,该方法包括泥石流扇形地危险区划、城市易损性分析和城市泥石流风险评价三个主要内容。泥石流堆积扇危险区划是基于数值模拟计算出的泥深和流速分布图进行叠合完成的。以美国高分辨率的“快鸟”卫星影像为数据源,完成了研究区的城市土地覆盖类型遥感解译,在此基础上完成了城市泥石流易损性分析,应用地理信息系统提供的统计和分析工具,完成了研究区泥石流风险评价。该风险区划图可用于指导对泥石流易泛区的不同风险地带的土地利用进行规划和决策,从而达到规避和减轻灾害的目的,也为生活在泥石流危险区的城市居民提供有关灾害风险信息,以作避难和灾害防治的依据。     

滑坡易发性危险性风险评价例析

从易发性、危险性、风险的概念入手,依据国际上流行和通用的滑坡风险评价与管理理论,分析了易发性评价的内容,包括易发性评价到危险性评价需要增加的评价要素,以及从危险性评价到风险评价需要增加的评价要素,阐明了这三种评价之间的联系和区别。并通过延安宝塔区的滑坡易发性、危险性和风险的评价与区划具体说明三者的做法和结果。     

Characteristics of the Cibaliung Gold Deposit: Miocene Low-Sulfidation-Type Epithermal Gold Deposit in Western Java, Indonesia

Middle Miocene (11.18–10.65 Ma) low sulfidation‐type epithermal gold mineralization occurred in the Cibaliung area, southwestern part of Java Island, Indonesia. It is hosted by andesitic to basaltic andesitic lavas of the Middle Miocene Honje Formation (11.4 Ma) and is covered by Pliocene Cibaliung tuff (4.9 Ma). The exploration estimates mineral resource of approximately 1.3 million tonnes at 10.42 g/t gold and 60.7 g/t silver at a 3 g/t Au cut‐off. This equates to approximately 435,000 ounces of gold and 2.54 million ounces of silver. That resource resulted from two ore shoots: Cibitung and Cikoneng. Studies on ore mineralogy, hydrothermal alteration, geology, fluid inclusion, stable isotopes and age dating were conducted in order to characterize the deposit and to understand a possible mechanism of preservation of the deposit. The ore mineral assemblage of the deposit consists of electrum, naumannite, Ag‐Se‐Te sulfide minerals, chalcopyrite, pyrite, sphalerite and galena. Those ore minerals occur in quartz veins showing colloform–crustiform texture. They are enveloped by mixed layer clay illite/smectite zone, which grades into smectite zone outward. The temperature of mineralization revealed by fluid inclusion study on quartz in the veins ranges from 170 and 220°C at shallow and deep level, respectively. The temperature range is in agreement with the temperature deduced from the hydrothermal alteration mineral assemblage including mixed layered illite/smectite and laumontite. The mineralizing fluid is dilute, with a salinity <1 wt% NaCl equivalent and has stable isotopes of oxygen and hydrogen composition indicating a meteoric water origin. Although the deposit is old enough that it would have been eroded in a tropical island arc setting, the coverage by younger volcanic deposits such as the Citeluk tuff and the Cibaliung tuff most probably prevented this erosion.     

滑坡灾害风险评价的关键理论与技术方法

滑坡灾害风险评估主要包括滑坡敏感性分析、危险性评价和风险评估3个不同层次的内容。但是,滑坡地质灾害本身的复杂性和滑坡强度的确定、滑坡发生的时空概率估算、承灾体的易损性时空概率分析等难点问题的存在,无疑阻碍了滑坡风险定量评估的推广和应用。在系统分析国内外滑坡灾害风险评估研究成果的基础上,对滑坡灾害风险评价的技术体系进行了总结,提出了不同层次滑坡灾害的研究内容和相应的评价方法;分析了实现滑坡风险有效评价涉及到的难点问题,并结合降雨和地震诱发的滑坡灾害危险性评价国内外的实践,提出了中国未来滑坡灾害风险评价研究的主要内容和技术方法。     

Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis for Sumatra, Indonesia and across the Southern Malaysian Peninsula

The ground motion hazard for Sumatra and the Malaysian peninsula is calculated in a probabilistic framework, using procedures developed for the US National Seismic Hazard Maps. We constructed regional earthquake source models and used standard published and modified attenuation equations to calculate peak ground acceleration at 2% and 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years for rock site conditions. We developed or modified earthquake catalogs and declustered these catalogs to include only independent earthquakes. The resulting catalogs were used to define four source zones that characterize earthquakes in four tectonic environments: subduction zone interface earthquakes, subduction zone deep intraslab earthquakes, strike-slip transform earthquakes, and intraplate earthquakes. The recurrence rates and sizes of historical earthquakes on known faults and across zones were also determined from this modified catalog. In addition to the source zones, our seismic source model considers two major faults that are known historically to generate large earthquakes: the Sumatran subduction zone and the Sumatran transform fault. Several published studies were used to describe earthquakes along these faults during historical and pre-historical time, as well as to identify segmentation models of faults. Peak horizontal ground accelerations were calculated using ground motion prediction relations that were developed from seismic data obtained from the crustal interplate environment, crustal intraplate environment, along the subduction zone interface, and from deep intraslab earthquakes. Most of these relations, however, have not been developed for large distances that are needed for calculating the hazard across the Malaysian peninsula, and none were developed for earthquake ground motions generated in an interplate tectonic environment that are propagated into an intraplate tectonic environment. For the interplate and intraplate crustal earthquakes, we have applied ground-motion prediction relations that are consistent with California (interplate) and India (intraplate) strong motion data that we collected for distances beyond 200 km. For the subduction zone equations, we recognized that the published relationships at large distances were not consistent with global earthquake data that we collected and modified the relations to be compatible with the global subduction zone ground motions. In this analysis, we have used alternative source and attenuation models and weighted them to account for our uncertainty in which model is most appropriate for Sumatra or for the Malaysian peninsula. The resulting peak horizontal ground accelerations for 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years range from over 100% g to about 10% g across Sumatra and generally less than 20% g across most of the Malaysian peninsula. The ground motions at 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years are typically about 60% of the ground motions derived for a hazard level at 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years. The largest contributors to hazard are from the Sumatran faults.     

废弃矿山植被恢复工程地质灾害危险性评估关键问题分析

系统论述了废弃矿山植被恢复工程地质灾害危险性评估的的工作内容、方法、评估范围等关键技术问题。文章提出废弃矿山植被恢复工程地质灾害危险性评估工作兼具地质灾害危险性评估和矿区地质工程环境条件评价的双重目的,为植被恢复工程建设提供必要的设计依据。分区、分段、分单元全方位地质灾害调查和综合评估是开展废弃矿山植被恢复工程地质灾害危险性评估的有效方法,最后分析和讨论了地质灾害危险性的现状评估、预测评估以及适宜性评估等关键问题。     

陕西宝鸡地区胡家山滑坡风险性评价

在综合分析国内外滑坡风险评价方法的基础上,通过对野外地质灾害的调查、对胡家山滑坡的勘查和岩土物理力学参数的测试分析,利用Geo-slope软件和经验方法对滑坡多级潜在滑面进行稳定性分析、影响范围预测和失稳概率分析,开展了对滑坡在天然状态、10年一遇降雨和50年一遇降雨3种工况条件下的危险性、承灾体易损性分析等,完成了胡家山滑坡风险性评价,探讨了单体滑坡风险评价的技术方法与流程。根据评价结果,胡家山滑坡财产最大风险为113.71万元/年,人口最大风险为0.0648人/年,其人口风险超过了社会可容许的风险标准。因此,应采取加强监测、搬迁避让、适当工程治理等方法进行风险控制,以达到防灾减灾的目的。     

陕西宝鸡地区胡家山滑坡风险性评价

在综合分析国内外滑坡风险评价方法的基础上,通过对野外地质灾害的调查、对胡家山滑坡的勘查和岩土物理力学参数的测试分析,利用Geo-slope软件和经验方法对滑坡多级潜在滑面进行稳定性分析、影响范围预测和失稳概率分析,开展了对滑坡在天然状态、10年一遇降雨和50年一遇降雨3种工况条件下的危险性、承灾体易损性分析等,完成了胡家山滑坡风险性评价,探讨了单体滑坡风险评价的技术方法与流程。根据评价结果,胡家山滑坡财产最大风险为113.71万元/年,人口最大风险为0.0648人/年,其人口风险超过了社会可容许的风险标准。因此,应采取加强监测、搬迁避让、适当工程治理等方法进行风险控制,以达到防灾减灾的目的。     

Cikidang Hydrothermal Gold Deposit in Western Java, Indonesia

Abstract. The Cikidang gold deposit, discovered in 1991, is located within the Bayah dome, a Tertiary-Quaternary volcanic zone at west end of Java, which is well known as a gold district (e.g., Pongkor and Cikotok mines). Typical low-sulfidation quartz-adularia-sericite(-calcite) vein deposits represent the gold deposit in the district.
The Cikidang vein system comprises four sub-parallel quartz-adularia-sericite(-calcite) veins that are rich in manganese oxide and limonite with very poor amount of sulfides. These vary from 0.5 to 2.7 m thick and extend for up to 1,000 m long. The vein trends roughly N-S and dip 60 to 86° toward west. The ore grades vary from trace to 74.9 g/t Au and 1.2 to 225.0 g/t Ag. A K/Ar age determination on adularia yielded 2.4 Ma for the Cikidang vein.
The ore minerals are represented by electrum, argentite, aguilarite and pyrite. Electrum shows the compositional ranges of Ag (50–65 atom %). The gangue minerals are dominated by quartz with variable amounts of calcite, sericite, adularia, clay minerals, manganese oxide and limonite. The vein textures are so variable as banded, colloform, comb, brecciated and massive. Host rocks, composed of Miocene lapilli tuff and breccia, suffered from pervasive hydrothermal alterations. Wall rocks adjacent to the vein are characterized by argillic and propylitic alteration.
The fluid inclusion study of the Cikidang vein shows homogenization temperatures ranging from 170 to 260°C. Salinities are low, generally below 3 wt% NaCl equivalent. Oxygen isotope results suggest meteoric water in origin for ore fluids responsible for the Cikidang deposit.     

Spatial data for landslide susceptibility, hazard, and vulnerability assessment: An overview

The aim of this paper is to discuss a number of issues related to the use of spatial information for landslide susceptibility, hazard, and vulnerability assessment. The paper centers around the types of spatial data needed for each of these components, and the methods for obtaining them. A number of concepts are illustrated using an extensive spatial data set for the city of Tegucigalpa in Honduras. The paper intends to supplement the information given in the “Guidelines for Landslide Susceptibility, Hazard and Risk Zoning for Land Use Planning” by the Joint ISSMGE, ISRM and IAEG Technical Committee on Landslides and Engineered Slopes (JTC-1). The last few decades have shown a very fast development in the application of digital tools such as Geographic Information Systems, Digital Image Processing, Digital Photogrammetry and Global Positioning Systems. Landslide inventory databases are becoming available to more countries and several are now also available through the internet. A comprehensive landslide inventory is a must in order to be able to quantify both landslide hazard and risk. With respect to the environmental factors used in landslide hazard assessment, there is a tendency to utilize those data layers that are easily obtainable from Digital Elevation Models and satellite imagery, whereas less emphasis is on those data layers that require detailed field investigations. A review is given of the trends in collecting spatial information on environmental factors with a focus on Digital Elevation Models, geology and soils, geomorphology, land use and elements at risk.