紫坪铺水库蓄水前天然地震活动

紫坪铺水库位于龙门山断裂带。了解和掌握水库蓄水前库坝区及其周围天然地震活动背景水平,可对水库诱发地震的危险性进行前期评价,可为蓄水后的诱发地震活动监测提供可靠的鉴别依据。紫坪铺水库地震台网在水库蓄水前运行逾1年,本文用这批资料提供表征库区及附近和库坝区蓄水前天然地震活动水平确切实用的各项指标。用全国和四川台网地震资料,给出含库区的较大区域地震活动背景和对库区的影响。     

龙潭水库诱发地震震源参数分析

利用广西龙滩水库地震台网记录的数字地震波资料,用波谱分析方法计算了龙滩水库库区ML2．5—4．5级共计95个地震的震源参数。并对震源参数进行分析,结果表明：库区视应力的范围在0-3．5巴之间,2007年7月17日库区最大4．5级地震的视应力最大,为3．07巴。视应力随震级的增大呈幂函数增大趋势,两者的拟合关系为：σap...     

冕宁大桥水库蓄水前天然地震活动背景研究

为了解水库区域地震地质背景和历史地震活动水平，加强对水库蓄水前期地震活动的监测，为分析预测蓄水后可能的水库诱发地震提供背景依据。1995年1月建成投测的冕宁大桥水库地震遥测台网，在水库蓄水前已连续运行了4．5年，积累了宝贵的资料。本文结合使用西昌地震遥测台网对该区域前期的地震记录，给出了库区蓄水前天然地震活动的背景特征。可将它们作为研究水库蓄水后地震活动的参考背景。     

向家坝水库蓄水期间的地震活动分析

根据2008年9月至2013年10月金沙江下游水库地震台网监测资料,分析了蓄水期间水库地震影响区的地震活动和震源机制。向家坝水库蓄水1年多,蓄水后库首区A、B段的地震活动频次和强度都维持在较低水平。蓄水期间地震活动显著增加,集中分布在库区C段,并不是蓄水初期地震活动就增加,与库区2013年6月启动第二阶段蓄水有一定相关性,强度在3级地震活动水平。增加的地震活动位于近南北走向的翼子坝、玛瑙断裂的中段。这些局部地段蓄水后发生的地震,其震源的力学机制多为倾滑或正断型,分析认为部分地震为水库诱发岩溶或塌陷型地震,多数仍属构造地震。本文结果为水库诱发地震的研究提供了资料和震例。     

小湾水库影响区地震活动性探讨

利用区域构造、小湾库区水载荷变化及云南省区域地震台网2000—2021年的地震监测资料,对小湾水库影响区内水库蓄水前后地震活动空间、频度、强度等进行综合分析,并对区域断层性质、库水位载荷变化、震源机制解、地震应力降参数进行深入分析。结果显示:小湾水库影响区及附近第四纪断裂构造交汇,环境复杂且存在应力水平较高区域;水库蓄水对库区基底岩层及库岸岩体影响显著,地震活动明显增强;水库影响区地震空间分布明显受区域构造控制;在水载荷变化的影响下,触发了构造区的应力释放,发生了走滑断层性质破裂的2015年昌宁5.1级地震。     

Seismicity and crustal deformation preceding the January 1996 eruptions at Karymsky Volcanic Center,Kamchatka

Two explosive eruptions occurred on 2 January 1996 at Karymsky Volcanic Center (KVC) in Kamchatka, Russia: the first, dacitic, from the central vent of Karymsky volcano, and the second, several hours later, from Karymskoye lake in the caldera of Akademia Nauk volcano. The main significance of the 1996 volcanic events in KVC was the phreatomagmatic eruption in Karymskoye lake, which was the first eruption in this lake in historical time, and was a basaltic eruption at the acidic volcanic center. The volcanic events were associated with the 1 January Ms 6.7 (Mw 7.1) earthquake that occurred at a distance of about 9–17 km southeast from the volcanoes just before the eruptions. We study the long-term (1972–1995) and short-term (1–2 January 1996) characteristics of crustal deformations and seismicity before the double eruptive event in KVC. The 1972–1995 crustal deformation was homogeneous and characterized by a gradual extension with a steady velocity. The seismic activity in 1972–1995 developed at the depth interval from 0 to 20 km below the Akademia Nauk volcano and spread to the southeast along a regional fault. The seismic activity in January 1996 began with a short sequence of very shallow microearthquakes (M ~0) beneath Karymsky volcano. Then seismic events sharply increased in magnitude (up to mb 4.9) and moved along the regional fault to the southeast, culminating in the Ms 6.7 earthquake. Its aftershocks were located to the southeast and northwest from the main shock, filling the space between the two active volcanoes and the ancient basaltic volcano of Zhupanovsky Vostryaki. The eruption in Karymskoye lake began during the aftershock sequence. We consider that the Ms 6.7 earthquake opened the passageway for basic magma located below Zhupanovsky Vostryaki volcano that fed the eruption in Karymskoye lake.     

Role of dykes in induced seismicity at Bhatsa reservoir,Maharashtra, India

The geological and hydrological conditions near the reservoir site play an important role in the generation or absence of seismic activity. Near Bhatsa reservoir, along the west coast of India intense seismic activity occurred during August–September 1983, after a lag of six years of initial impounding. From July 1983 to September 1990, 15,388 earthquakes (mostlyM ₁<3.0) were recorded, the largest being of magnitude 4.9. The spatial distribution of well located 172 earthquakes suggest a strong correlation between the epicenters and the disposition of dykes and faults around the Bhatsa region. It is inferred that these dykes have acted as barriers for the diffusion of water from the reservoir, thereby becoming zones of instability due to increased pore pressure not only along them but also over the volume they bound.     

川南泸州地区地震重定位与地壳三维速度结构研究

近年来全球范围内页岩气水力压裂开采区地震活动剧增的现象,引起社会公众、政府、产业部门和科学家的广泛关注.利用2010年至2021年期间四川南部区域台网和流动台站记录的近震P波和S波到时数据,采用双差层析成像方法,对泸州及周边地区地震位置和地壳浅部介质结构进行了联合反演.重新定位后,中小地震震源深度主要处于2~10 km范围内.在空间上,地震活动呈现丛集特征,集中在螺观山背斜和古佛山背斜之间的低缓区内,并具有一定的时空迁移特征.背斜以南区域和泸县M6.0地震震中处,可观测到北西走向的地震丛集现象,与区域内已知断层分布并不一致.成像结果显示,在地壳浅部,背斜之间低缓区内的S波(V_S)速度结构存在横向分区特征,中北部地区表现为明显的高速异常,对应的波速比(V_P/V_S) 值较低,且大部分地震分布在这些异常体内.但泸县M6.0地震震源区位于P波和S波的高、低速异常的交界地带.结合其他地质与地球物理研究,推测泸县地震发生在一条北西走向、以逆冲为主高角度的调节断层上.

     

The b-value and fractal dimension of local seismicity around Koyna Dam (India)

Earthquakes began to occur in Koyna region (India) soon after the filling of Koyna Dam in 1962. In the present study, three datasets 1964–1993, 1993–1995, and 1996–1997 are analyzed to study the b-value and fractal dimension. The b-value is calculated using the Gutenberg–Richter relationship and fractal dimension D _corr. using correlation integral method. The estimated b-value and D _corr. of this region before 1993 are found to be in good agreement with previously reported studies. In the subsequent years after 1995, the b-value shows an increase. The estimated b-values of this region are found within the limits of global average. Also, the pattern of spatial clustering of earthquakes show increase in clustering and migration along the three zones called North-East Zone, South-East Zone (SEZ), and Warna Seismic Zone. The earthquake events having depth ≤5 km are largely confined to SEZ. After 1993, the D _corr. shows decrease, implying that earthquake activity gets clustered. This seismic clustering could be helpful for earthquake forecasting.     

Secular polar motion,crustal movements,and international latitude service observations

Summary The latitude variations observed by optical astrometry at five International Latitude Service (ILS) stations since the beginning of the century are analyzed to estimate the secular motion of the pole and the correction of the proper motions of the observed stars. The geophysical model of tectonic plate motions NUVEL-1 is used to correct the observed latitude drifts, thus referring the derived secular polar motion to the "no net rotation" terrestrial reference system. It is shown that one of the ILS stations, Ukiah (near the U.S. west coast), very probably exhibits an anomalous drift which differs significantly from the motion of both the Pacific and North American plates.     

Long-term variations in the earth's motion and crustal movements

Astronomical observations of time and latitude providing precise information on the motion of the earth as a whole (rotation and polar motion) point to the existence of secular and periodical variations due to tidal forces and geophysical and meteorological causes.Together with these variations, there is also evidence that the earth's crust is wandering as a result of the action of different forces, and the mean latitudes and longitudes of the observatories vary because of continental and/or local displacements.In this paper an analysis of a long series of latitude and time astronomical observations is carried out in order to investigate their long-term variations, and an important result is found: there is significant evidence for the existence of a relationship between the rotational accelerations of the earth and the variation in the positions of the mean rotation pole over periods of about thirty years. This result is discussed from the viewpoint of a deformable earth and/or crustal movements.     

华北地区现今地壳运动动力学初步研究

本文基于GPS、断层形变等观测资料,实现华北地区构造运动有限元数值模拟,研究其现今地壳运动及形变动力学机理.结果表明,鄂尔多斯地块、华南地块、东北亚地块等周边构造块体的相对运动基本决定了华北地区现今表面运动及应力场格局.而另一方面,当考虑区域下部岩石层较快速的“拖动”作用时,表面速度场可以得到更好模拟,并同时形成共轭分布的剪应力梯度带.可见太平洋板块的俯冲作用、印-欧板块的碰撞挤压作用等可能造成岩石层深部、浅部运动差异,从而对研究区现今地壳运动产生深刻影响.此外,地形重力作用、断层分布及区域流变结构非均匀性也对现今地壳运动具有一定影响作用,但处于次要地位.     

紫坪铺水库区域地壳QS动态变化及其与水库蓄水关系的研究

利用2004年8月16日——2008年5月11日双差精定位后的地震S波资料,采用衰减层析成像方法对紫坪铺水库区域地壳QS进行动态衰减成像,反演得到了该区的QS动态演化特征．以1个月为步长、1年为窗长,计算了紫坪铺水库地区不同大小区域按月滑动的平均QS值,统计了不同震级范围按月滑动的地震频次,并分别与水位进行了对比分析．研究结果表明,水位首次快速加载后,紫坪铺水库低QS值区域范围扩大,QS值下降,水库西南区、东北区、库区中段、东北岸QS值的变化较为明显．紫坪铺水库不同大小区域按月滑动的平均QS值随蓄水时间的增加、水位的升高而减小,库区中段QS值下降最为剧烈．水库蓄水增强了该区的地震活动性,对ML0.0——2.0的小震活动影响较为显著．      

Vertical crustal motion observed in the BIFROST project

This paper reports from investigations on the robustness of estimated rates of intraplate motion from the continuous GPS project BIFROST (Baseline Inferences from Fennoscandian Rebound Observations, Sealevel and Tectonics). We study loading effects due to ocean, atmosphere and hydrology and their impact on estimated rate parameters. We regularly find the admittance of a modelled perturbation at less than fifty percent of the full effect. We think that the finding relates to a difficult noise situation at all periods, and that a satisfying model for the dominating noise source has not been found yet. An additional reason for low admittance is found in the mapping process of the no-fiducial network solution into a conventional reference frame.     

Fluxes of fluid and heat from the oceanic crustal reservoir

Recent discoveries define a global scale fluid reservoir residing within the uppermost igneous oceanic crust, a region of seafloor that is both warm and may harbor a substantial biosphere. This hydrothermal fluid reservoir formed initially within volcanic rocks newly erupted at mid-ocean ridges, but extends to the vastly larger and older ridge flanks. Upper oceanic crust is porous and permeable due to the presence of lava drainbacks, fissuring, and inter-unit voids, and this porosity and permeability allows active fluid circulation to advect measurable quantities of lithospheric heat from the crust to an average age of 65 Myr. A compilation of crustal porosities shows that this fluid reservoir contains nearly 2% of the total volume of global seawater. Heat flow and sediment thickness data allow calculation of reservoir temperatures, predicting 40°C mean temperatures in Cretaceous crust. Utilizing these temperature estimates, heat flow measurements and models for the thermal structure and evolution of the oceanic lithosphere, we have computed mean hydrothermal fluxes into the deep ocean as a function of plate age. The total hydrothermal volume flux into the oceans approaches 20% of the total riverine input and may contribute to the global seawater mass balance.     

Seismicity and strain accumulation around Karliova Triple Junction (Turkey)

GPS studies in Turkey date back to the early 1990s, but were mostly focused on the seismically active North Anatolian Fault System (NAFS), or on the more populated Western Anatolia. Relatively few studies were made of the seismically less-active East Anatolian Fault System (EAFS), although it has the potential to produce large earthquakes. In this study, we present the results of a combination of geodetic and seismological data around the Karliova Triple Junction (KTJ), which lies at the intersection of the North- and East Anatolian Fault Systems. In particular, the geodetic slip rates obtained through block modeling of GPS velocities were compared with b-values to assess seismicity in the region. Yedisu segment, one of the best-known seismic gaps in Turkey, was specifically analyzed. The relatively low b-values across Yedisu segment verify the accumulation of seismic energy in this segment, and the GPS-derived geodetic slip rates suggest that it has the potential to produce an earthquake of Mw 7.5 across an 80-km rupture zone.Additionally, analysis of earthquake data reveals that the study area has a ductile or rigid–ductile behavior with respect to its surroundings, characterized by varying b-values. Although, seismic events of moderate- to high magnitudes are confined along the major fault zones, there are also low-seismicity zones along the eastern part of the Bitlis Suture Zone and around Yedisu. Since the high seismicity areas within the region may not accumulate sufficient stress for a large earthquake to occur, it is considered that the deformation in such areas occurs in a ductile manner. On the other hand, the areas characterized by low b-values may have the capacity of stress accumulation, which could lead to brittle deformation.     

Self-organized Fractal Seismicity of Reservoir Triggered Earthquakes in the Koyna-Warna Seismic Zone,Western India

— Analysis of the Koyna-Warna earthquake catalog (1968–1996) shows that on an average there is a positive correlation between the b value (decrease) and fractal dimensions (decrease in both D₂^s and D₂^t) of earthquake epicenters 0.5 and 2.5 years prior to 1973 (M5.2) and 1980 (M5.5) events, respectively, except a negative correlation for about five years (1988–1993) prior to the 1993/1994 sequence (M5.4). This positive correlation indicates a weaker clustering, or that the epicenters tend to fill the two-dimensional plane. While the origin of the negative correlation seems to be that during periods of large events (low b value), there is strong clustering around the main shock epicenter (high fractal dimension). Interestingly, during the last year (1995–1996) of the studied period both the b value and correlation dimensions rose significantly, suggesting that stress release occurs through increased levels of low magnitude and increasingly scattered seismicity, suggesting an increased risk of larger magnitude events. Incidentally, during 2000 three earthquakes of magnitude M 5.0, one earthquake of M 4.0, 45 earthquakes of magnitude M 3.0–3.9, and several thousand earthquakes of M < 3 have occurred in the region. Thus it can be inferred that at local scales the relationship yields both positive and negative correlation that appears to be controlled by different modes of failure within the active fault complex.Acknowledgement. The authors are grateful to Dr. B.K. Rastogi of NGRI for providing the catalog of Koyna earthquakes and for useful scientific discussions. The comments of Dr. I. G. Main have improved the quality of paper for which we extend to him our sincere thanks. One of the authors (AOM) thanks the Third World Academy of Science and the Council of Scientific and Industrial Research, India for the Postdoctoral Fellowship award under which this work was carried out.     

Optimization and simulation of reservoir operation with sediment evacuation: a case study of the Tarbela Dam,Pakistan

Many reservoirs around the world are being operated based on rule curves developed without considering the evacuation of deposited sediment. Current reservoir simulation and optimization models fall short of incorporating the concept of sustainability because the reservoir storage losses due to sedimentation are not considered. This study develops a new model called Reservoir Optimization‐Simulation with Sediment Evacuation (ROSSE) model. The model utilizes genetic algorithm based optimization capabilities and embeds the sediment evacuation module into the simulation module. The sediment evacuation module is implemented using the Tsinghua university flushing equation. The ROSSE model is applied to optimize the rule curves of Tarbela Reservoir, the largest reservoir in Pakistan with chronic sedimentation problems. In the present study, rule curves are optimized for maximization of net economic benefits from water released. The water released can be used for irrigation, power production, sediment evacuation, and for flood control purposes. Relative weights are used to combine the benefits from these conflicting water uses. Nine sets of rule curves are compared, namely existing rule curves and proposed rule curves for eight scenarios developed for various policy options. These optimized rule curves show an increase of net individual economic benefits ranging from 9 to 248% over the existing rule curves. The shortage of irrigation supply during the simulation period is reduced by 38% and reservoir sustainability is enhanced by 28% through increased sediment evacuation. The study concludes that by modifying the operating policy and rule curves, it is possible to enhance the reservoir's sustainability and maximize the net economic benefits. The developed methodology and the model can be used for optimization of rule curves of other reservoirs with sedimentation problems. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.