Editorial Statement

At the request of Dr. Hideharu AKIYOSHI of the National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES) of Japan and with the apology of Dr. ZHOU Libo for his misconduct, we hereby announce that the paper of "Middle-High Latitude N2O Distributions Related to the Arctic Vortex Breakup", authored by ZHOU Libo, ZOU Han, and GAO Yongqi, be retracted from Volume 23, No. 2, March 2006 of Advances in Atmospheric Sciences (AAS) on page number 215-223. This paper will not be considered as a published paper in AAS, and it will not appear in any future reference or record. In fact, this paper should not have been submitted for consideration for publication in AAS, because it was based on the scientific ideas and research previously     

伴随模式同化系统在修正模式地形中的应用

任何模式都只是实际大气的一种近似模拟，存在误差。鉴于传统的四维资料伴随模式同化系统都是假设模式完全正确仅对初始场进行修正。将伴随模式同化系统应用于修正模式地形误差，通过对不同初始地形的修正试验表明，MM5伴随模式同化系统能很好地对地形误差进行修正，能够反演出与初始气象要素场分辨率相匹配、与模式更协调的地形场，为伴随模式同化系统的广泛应用提供了一种新的思路。     

Latent heat of melting and its importance for glaciation cycles

A dynamical energy balance model is developed including both latent heat and sensible heat exchanges. It is applied to reconstructing the history of the changes of the icesheet mass and the ocean surface temperature over an ice age. The zero-dimensional model is extended to include three-dimensional information of the icesheets by assuming a specific geometric shape of the icesheets. The ice-albedo feedback can then be calculated and, at the same time, the cryosphere interaction is introduced into the climate model. The advancing of the glaciers and the cooling of the oceans in a glacial period can be accounted for by the differential equations of the dynamic system if an external perturbation in the form of any energy deficit of 0.13% of the insolation is imposed. The earth orbital changes generate a heat deficit of this magnitude due to the change of the eccentricity and have the same periodicity of 100 000 years as the major glacial cycles. Therefore they could well be the origin of the Pleistocene ice ages. Editor's Note: This note generated strong, but mixed, reactions from three referees. Its conclusions should thus be weighed carefully. It is published despite the cautionary reviews in order to spur debate on the large remaining uncertainties over the causes of Pleistocene glacial cycles.     

A Personal Perspective on the Further Reform of the Advances in Atmospheric Sciences

First of all, I wish to thank the Advances in Atmospheric Sciences (AAS) Editorial Board for recommending the publication of this original letter, summarizing my personal perspective on the reform of AAS,that was distributed during its 19 December 2001 Board meeting. The letter has now been significantly improved by the incorporation of many helpful comments and suggestions from extensive email discussions conducted among over 60 foreign participants, including several board members of AAS, as well as from numerous personal communications (see the acknowledgements section).     

The economic cost of greenhouse-induced sea-level rise for developed property in the United States

Estimates of the true economic cost that might be attributed to greenhouse-induced sea-level rise on the developed coastline of the United States are offered for the range of trajectories that is now thought to be most likely. Along a 50-cm sea level rise trajectory (through 2100), for example, transient costs in 2065 (a year frequently anticipated for doubling of greenhouse-gas concentrations) are estimated to be roughly $70 million (undiscounted, but measured in constant 1990$). More generally and carefully cast in the appropriate context of protection decisions for developed property, the results reported here are nearly an order of magnitude lower than estimates published prior to 1994. They are based upon a calculus that reflects rising values for coastal property as the future unfolds, but also includes the cost-reducing potential of natural, market-based adaptation in anticipation of the threat of rising seas and/or the efficiency of discrete decisions to protect or not to protect small tracts of property that will be made when necessary and on the (then current) basis of their individual economic merit.This research was funded by the Electric Power Research Institute as part of its impacts assessment program. Notwithstanding that support, the opinions expressed here and responsibility for any errors reside with the authors. The authors express their appreciation for comments offered on earlier drafts by Rick Freeman, Rob Mendelsohn, Joel Smith, Tom Wilson, Jim Titus, Robert Chen and the Snowmass Workshop on the Impacts of Global Change. If we may, we would also like to dedicate this paper to the memory of Dr. James Broadus from the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution. His untimely death was, indeed, tragic; and we miss both his company and his flawless contribution to this and other work.     

New statistical models for long-range forecasting of southwest monsoon rainfall over India

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has been issuing long-range forecasts (LRF) based on statistical methods for the southwest monsoon rainfall over India (ISMR) for more than 100 years. Many statistical and dynamical models including the operational models of IMD failed to predict the recent deficient monsoon years of 2002 and 2004. In this paper, we report the improved results of new experimental statistical models developed for LRF of southwest monsoon seasonal (June–September) rainfall. These models were developed to facilitate the IMD’s present two-stage operational forecast strategy. Models based on the ensemble multiple linear regression (EMR) and projection pursuit regression (PPR) techniques were developed to forecast the ISMR. These models used new methods of predictor selection and model development. After carrying out a detailed analysis of various global climate data sets; two predictor sets, each consisting of six predictors were selected. Our model performance was evaluated for the period from 1981 to 2004 by sliding the model training period with a window length of 23 years. The new models showed better performance in their hindcast, compared to the model based on climatology. The Heidke scores for the three category forecasts during the verification period by the first stage models based on EMR and PPR methods were 0.5 and 0.44, respectively, and those of June models were 0.63 and 0.38, respectively. Root mean square error of these models during the verification period (1981–2004) varied between 4.56 and 6.75% from long period average (LPA) as against 10.0% from the LPA of the model based on climatology alone. These models were able to provide correct forecasts of the recent two deficient monsoon rainfall events (2002 and 2004). The experimental forecasts for the 2005 southwest monsoon season based on these models were also found to be accurate.     

The Electric Field During Blowing Snow Events

A model is proposed to determine the electric field strength in blowing snow. To test this model, the electric field strength was measured over an 80-day period during the Canadian Arctic Shelf Exchange Study (CASES) in 2004. The electric field strength at 0.5 m correlates well with the difference between 10-m wind speed and a threshold wind speed, although there is a large amount of variation between the electric fields generated during different blowing snow events. Although the model predicts that the electric field should be proportional to particle number density, the correlation is weak. The correlation of wind speed and electric field strength suggests that particles become charged primarily due to friction-induced temperature difference as they impact upon the surface. The strength of the electric field is likely influenced by a large number of other factors that are difficult to measure. However, the model predicts electric field strengths in excess of 25 kV m⁻¹ near the surface, which would have a significant effect on particle motion.     

Read all about it!? Public accountability,fragmented global climate governance and the media

The way that the media reports and comments on key events in the fragmented global climate governance landscape is one important route to strengthening public accountability of such governance. Editorials and other opinion pieces provide key contributions to the public sphere, but have been almost entirely neglected in media research on climate change. Another understudied aspect in such research is the reporting on the fragmentation of global climate governance across numerous forums. This article provides an exploratory approach to address these two research gaps. It presents a quantitative analysis of how often leading newspapers in seven countries (Finland, India, Laos, Norway, South Africa, UK and USA) wrote about 18 meetings in six different global climate governance forums between 2004–2009 and whether they provided commentaries about them. The study shows that media coverage (articles and opinion pieces) is limited or absent for many meetings that are not attended by heads of state, are the launch of a new process or do not have the convening power of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. The pattern of coverage differs significantly among individual newspapers and there is no clear distinction between developed and developing country newspapers. The article concludes that overall news coverage, and editorial commentary in particular, of global climate meetings in the selected newspapers is too low and too patchy to significantly support domestic publics to hold their own (and indirectly other) governments accountable with regard to fragmented global climate governance.

Policy relevance

This study is instructive for the media and civil society, who should both act as accountholders of governments with regard to how they act in global climate governance and its implementation. Reporting and commentaries need to reflect the overarching process, not only sporadic coverage of high-level meetings, but also critical analysis of what is achieved. They should also take a broader scope in terms of the kinds of meetings and processes in global governance that they cover. Civil society should encourage the media to increase coverage along these lines, e.g. by adequate monitoring of government actions (or lack thereof) and share this with the media.     

INFORMATION FOR AUTHORS

Advances in Atmospheric Sciences (AAS) is an international journal on the dynamics, physics, and chemistry of the atmosphere and ocean with papers across the full range of the atmospheric sciences, published bimonthly by Science Press, Beijing, China. The journal includes Articles, Note and Correspondence, and Letters. Contributions from all over the world are welcome.     

WRF模式中的微物理过程及其预报对比试验

WRF(Weather Research Forecast)模式系统是由许多美国研究部门及大学的科学家共同参与进行开发研究的新一代中尺度同化预报系统。本文主要对公开发布的WRF模式V2.0版本中使用的微物理过程方案进行简单介绍,并在国家气象中心建立的与T213中期预报模式相嵌套的预报系统的基础上,对不同微物理过程方案进行了降水预报对比试验和检验,对各方案的降水预报性能进行初步评估。试验结果表明,总体预报效果LIN方案较好,而对流参数化方案从降水落区预报和对流降水对总降水的贡献两方面看则是KF和NKF方案的预报效果较好。     

The European Community Cloudless Sky Radiance Model. An Evaluation by Means of the Skyscan’834 Data Set

Summary Having in mind the high complexity of the sky radiance distribution, the Commission of the European Communities, in the frame of the Solar Energy R&D in the European Community Programme, developed among other related fields of research a clear sky radiance model. This model, the so-called EC-Model, was intended for the estimation of the diffuse irradiance falling on an inclined surface by integration of the sky radiance field. It represents a progress development over its predecessor, the Berlin model, and takes into account all the scientific knowledge about this topic, lying heavily on the principles of the Liebelt formulation and the work of Steven and Unsworth on the observed relative radiance distribution. The European Solar Radiation Atlas was in part prepared by the adoption of the EC-Model and could not take into account Valko’s new results about sky radiance distributions, because of time coincidence and that only previous results were ready at the time it was published. In this work, we focus on the EC-Model behaviour, against experimental sky radiance data from Toronto, Canada. The SKYSCAN’834 Data Set is a well-known database, which we have used in order to investigate the EC-Model behaviour both under its original formulation (the one that has been used in the development of the Atlas) and under the modified version suggested by Valko’s results. Even though we are considering data from outside Europe, the results of this test let us establish the model limitations and the modifications that should be done to it. Received August 4, 1998     

三维城市地表反射率计算模式

地表反射率是控制地表能量平衡的一个重要参数。城市建筑物的分布具有较大的不均一性,这不仅给地基观测城市地表反射率带来了很大困难,数值模拟城市地表反射率也是非常困难的。作者开发了一个三维城市地表反射率模式city_photo,该方法结合了蒙特卡洛方法和几何光学方法的优点,具有较高的精度和较快的计算速度。通过引入城市地图的概念,该模式能够计算具有不同结构的城市的地表反射率。2002至2004年晴空MODIS（MODerate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer,中分辨率成像光谱辐射计）1~7通道可见光和近红外通道地表反射率资料被用来检验模式的有效性,位于北京朝阳区的中国科学院大气物理研究所的AERONET站点观测得到气溶胶光学特性和水汽资料,6S（Second Simulation of Satellite Signal in the Solar Spectrum）大气辐射传输模式被用来对其进行大气订正。模式计算的北京城市地表反射率个例与MODIS 7个通道地表反射率观测结果具有很高的相关性,相关系数在0.80~0.93之间,说明模式能够较好地模拟城市地表反射率随太阳和观测角度的变化情况。最后讨论了城市结构对城市地表反射率的影响。     

中国地区气溶胶的辐射强迫及其气候响应试验

根据国内测定的排放因子数据和国家、部委及各省市统计年鉴公布的排放源数据,得到的中国大陆的1°×1°网格精度的SO2的排放分布,计算了中国地区人为扰动气溶胶的辐射强迫。应用近期开发的二维能量平衡模式计算了由该种气溶胶所引起的中国地区地面温度变化。模式结果表明,最大辐射强迫和最大地面温度变化都集中在中国的沿海和四川地区。最大辐射强迫达3 W/m2。     

Inter-trading permanent emissions credits and rented temporary carbon emissions offsets: some issues and alternatives

Permit trading among polluting parties is now firmly established as a policy tool in a range of environmental policy areas. The Kyoto Protocol accepts the principle that sequestration of carbon in the terrestrial biosphere can be used to offset emissions of carbon from fossil fuel combustion and outlines mechanisms. Although the lack of guaranteed permanence of biological offsets is often viewed as a defect, this paper argues that the absence of guaranteed permanence need not be a fundamental problem. We view carbon emissions as a liability issue. One purpose of an emissions credit system is to provide the emitter with a means to satisfy the carbon liability associated with her firm's (or country's) release of carbon into the atmosphere. We have developed and here expand on a rental approach, in which sequestered carbon is explicitly treated as temporary: the emitter temporarily satisfies his liability by temporarily “parking” his liability, for a fee, in a terrestrial carbon reservoir, or “sink,” such as a forest or agricultural soil. Finally, the paper relates the value of permanent and temporary sequestration and argues that both instruments are tradable and have a high degree of substitutability that allows them to interact in markets.     

隐形碳关税:概念辨析与国际治理

碳关税是各国高度关注的贸易问题,因涉及各国经贸利益,南北国家在碳关税问题上分歧很大。任何有关碳关税的政策措施,都会引起发展中国家的强烈反对。因此,部分发达国家试图另辟蹊径,在国际贸易中通过增加生产标准、碳标签等技术要求,以比较隐蔽的方式实现执行碳关税的目的。文中将这些隐蔽的但能起到碳关税执行效果的政策措施归纳为隐形碳关税,并定义隐形碳关税是指那些虽然没有在边境环节征收碳关税,但与征收碳关税起到相同贸易壁垒作用的,对发展中国家出口产品和服务构成限制的政策和措施。隐形碳关税比较典型的表现形式包括生产标准、碳标签等措施。这些措施本身是政策中性的,并不构成隐形碳关税,但如果叠加了转移应对气候变化成本、限制发展中国家产业发展等目的,这些措施的性质便不再中性,而成为现实中的贸易壁垒。隐形碳关税的治理应该是国际气候治理进程的一个部分,《联合国气候变化框架公约》则应是隐形碳关税治理的主要国际平台。无论是在气候公约内还是气候公约外的治理机制,隐形碳关税的国际治理都应遵循气候公约的相关原则,尤其是共同但有区别责任原则,区别对待发达和发展中国家的责任和义务,充分发挥生产标准、碳标签等措施的积极环境效用,同时约束其不当使用,建立公平、互信、务实的国际合作模式,实现气候治理与经济发展的协同。     

Fitting the distribution of dry and wet spells with alternative probability models

The development of the rainfall occurrence model is greatly important not only for data-generation purposes, but also in providing informative resources for future advancements in water-related sectors, such as water resource management and the hydrological and agricultural sectors. Various kinds of probability models had been introduced to a sequence of dry (wet) days by previous researchers in the field. Based on the probability models developed previously, the present study is aimed to propose three types of mixture distributions, namely, the mixture of two log series distributions (LSD), the mixture of the log series Poisson distribution (MLPD), and the mixture of the log series and geometric distributions (MLGD), as the alternative probability models to describe the distribution of dry (wet) spells in daily rainfall events. In order to test the performance of the proposed new models with the other nine existing probability models, 54 data sets which had been published by several authors were reanalyzed in this study. Also, the new data sets of daily observations from the six selected rainfall stations in Peninsular Malaysia for the period 1975–2004 were used. In determining the best fitting distribution to describe the observed distribution of dry (wet) spells, a Chi-square goodness-of-fit test was considered. The results revealed that the new method proposed that MLGD and MLPD showed a better fit as more than half of the data sets successfully fitted the distribution of dry and wet spells. However, the existing models, such as the truncated negative binomial and the modified LSD, were also among the successful probability models to represent the sequence of dry (wet) days in daily rainfall occurrence.     

夏季降水趋势分布预测新方法的研究及其预测试验

简要介绍了近几年来有关夏季降水趋势分布预测方法的一些研究成果，其中包括以统计学为基础的降水场预测模型、动力与统计相结合的区域气候模式及集成预测方法。     

Inter-trading permanent emissions credits and rented temporary carbon emissions offsets: some issues and alternatives

Permit trading among polluting parties is now firmly established as a policy tool in a range of environmental policy areas. The Kyoto Protocol accepts the principle that sequestration of carbon in the terrestrial biosphere can be used to offset emissions of carbon from fossil fuel combustion and outlines mechanisms. Although the lack of guaranteed permanence of biological offsets is often viewed as a defect, this paper argues that the absence of guaranteed permanence need not be a fundamental problem. We view carbon emissions as a liability issue. One purpose of an emissions credit system is to provide the emitter with a means to satisfy the carbon liability associated with her firm’s (or country’s) release of carbon into the atmosphere. We have developed and here expand on a rental approach, in which sequestered carbon is explicitly treated as temporary: the emitter temporarily satisfies his liability by temporarily “parking” his liability, for a fee, in a terrestrial carbon reservoir, or “sink,” such as a forest or agricultural soil. Finally, the paper relates the value of permanent and temporary sequestration and argues that both instruments are tradable and have a high degree of substitutability that allows them to interact in markets.     

A Methodological Study on Using Weather Research and Forecasting(WRF) Model Outputs to Drive a One-Dimensional Cloud Model简

A new method for driving a One-Dimensional Stratiform Cold （1DSC） cloud model with Weather Research and Fore casting （WRF） model outputs was developed by conducting numerical experiments for a typical large-scale stratiform rainfall event that took place on 4-5 July 2004 in Changchun, China. Sensitivity test results suggested that, with hydrometeor pro files extracted from the WRF outputs as the initial input, and with continuous updating of soundings and vertical velocities （including downdraft） derived from the WRF model, the new WRF-driven 1DSC modeling system （WRF-1DSC） was able to successfully reproduce both the generation and dissipation processes of the precipitation event. The simulated rainfall intensity showed a time-lag behind that observed, which could have been caused by simulation errors of soundings, vertical velocities and hydrometeor profiles in the WRF output. Taking into consideration the simulated and observed movement path of the precipitation system, a nearby grid point was found to possess more accurate environmental fields in terms of their similarity to those observed in Changchun Station. Using profiles from this nearby grid point, WRF-1DSC was able to repro duce a realistic precipitation pattern. This study demonstrates that 1D cloud-seeding models do indeed have the potential to predict realistic precipitation patterns when properly driven by accurate atmospheric profiles derived from a regional short range forecasting system, This opens a novel and important approach to developing an ensemble-based rain enhancement prediction and operation system under a probabilistic framework concept.     

On the identification of representative samples from large data sets, with application to synoptic climatology

Summary The analysis of large data sets in meteorological and air quality studies is often made though the examination of specific case studies, especially when time-consuming computational models are employed. This paper presents the development of a tool to identify specific case studies, termed as representative days, that would subsequently be modelled. The success of such tools should be judged on the discrimination between the specified cases: and the degree to which they capture and recreate historical characteristics of the original data set. The developed approach utilises a principal component algorithm with varimax rotation (r-PCA) and the subtractive clustering algorithm coupled with a cluster validity criterion. In this paper, the developed tool is applied to a data set from the North Sea, utilizing two years worth of data from the DNMI operational forecasting model. The results will be subsequently used in photochemical and radiative forcing modelling tools as part of the EC funded project AEOLOS, with the ultimate goal to estimate the global warming potential of non-radioactive tracing substances such as SF₆ and PFCs, which are heavily used in the oil industry.