变化环境下基于跳跃分析的水资源评价方法

针对变化环境下的非一致性年径流序列,提出了基于跳跃分析的水资源评价方法.该方法假设非一致性年径流序列由相对一致的随机性成分和非一致的确定性成分两部分组成,采用水文变异综合诊断方法识别与检验年径流序列的变异点,并用变异前后序列均值之间的差值描述序列的确定性成分;根据时间序列分析的分解与合成理论,对年径流序列的随机性成分进行提取,采用有约束加权适线法对其进行频率计算;将确定性的预测值和随机性的设计值进行合成,得到过去、现在和未来不同时期年径流合成序列的频率分布.对无定河流域进行了实例验证,结果表明年径流量序列在1971年前后跳跃变异显著;多年平均地表水资源量在过去(1971年以前)、现在(2000年)和未来(2010年)三个时期的评价结果分别为:15.766×108 m3、10.228×108m3、10.228×108m3,未来与现在相同,而未来与过去相比减小约35.1%,这种情形对无定河流域水资源的开发利用极为不利.     

Sustainability in a materials world

Many adverse impacts on the environment can be directly related to the materials dispersed to the environment during processing or use, or after use as refuse and waste. Some materials, such as toxic wastes, are a major concern because they create immediate problems with longerterm effects. Gases released by major manufacturing industries can contribute to long-term regional and global problems such as acid rain or increased carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. The use of other materials, however, appears to be more benign or strictly localized in their impacts. If the current per capita level of material consumption in the United States was achieved worldwide, it would create major stresses on both resource adequacy and the environment. In fact, stresses have been created and will continue from this consumption style (developed countries) even if others don't achieve them.Correspondence should be directed to Earle B. Amey, U.S. Geological Survey, National Center 983, Reston, Virginia 20192.     

Kadavu Island, Fiji: Fluvial Studies of a Volcanic Island in the Humid Tropical South Pacific

This paper examines features of drainage and stream channel form and process on the mountainous volcanic island of Kadavu in the humid tropical South Pacific, and interprets the findings in relation to island environmental characteristics such as geology, regolith soils, topography, vegetation and climate. At island and sub-island scales, drainage patterns are linked to the geographical arrangement and topography of the late Cenozoic volcanoes. Stream channel and bedload characteristics demonstrate the importance of both deep saprolite weathering profiles for supplying sediment into the fluvial system, and the high energy nature of the fluvial transport regimes. Landscape chemical denudation is estimated at 50-85 mm per 1,000 years from baseflow solute concentrations converted from water conductivity readings.
Relative tectonic and sea-level stability during the late Holocene and the largely undisturbed rainforest and savanna vegetation on the island suggest that climatic factors control rates of fluvial processes on Kadavu. Streamflow records show particularly that tropical storms can have a big impact. The effects of possible increasing numbers of cyclones in the South Pacific and human vegetation disturbance on Kadavu are considered.     

The nomadic landscape: People in a changing Arctic environment

Geografisk Tidsskrift—Danish Journal of Geography 109(2):181–189, 2009

The paper will explore the sense of place in the Thule district, Northern Greenland, including the emotional topography by which people live. The analytical framework is the notion of a nomadic landscape, drawing from the essay on nomadology by Deleuze & Guattari (2004). The nomadic landscape is constituted by a network of spatial centres—or points of reference—from each of which an infinite spatial realm takes its beginning. The ambition is to demonstrate how, in a nomadic landscape, movement is integral to memory, sociability and experience; this is vital to the understanding of present day responses to the reduced mobility owing to changing weather and ice conditions in the Thule district.     

The evolution of a graduated symbol software package in a changing graphics environment

Abstract

The paper describes the developmental history of a software package for computer-assisted drafting of graduated symbol maps. Given the machinery prevalent 10 years ago, the first version was implemented on a mini-computer with vector-oriented devices, such as mechanical plotters and storage tube terminals. The programs provide functions for plotting graduated symbols of various forms, legends and Line drawing. To improve map legibility the hidden areas in cases of overlapping symbols are removed. The visual separation of the symbols is enhanced by a halo effect, a small gap between the symbols, or the symbols and map background. New hardware required the reprogramming of the package to exploit the extended capabilities of new computers and graphic devices, including colour and hardware area fill. To increase flexibility, portability and maintainability, the graphic standard GKS (Graphical Kernel System) has been used as a device-independent software interface for the third generation of the package.     

Oil-weathering behavior in Arctic environments

Oil-weathering processes in ice-free subarctic and Arctic waters include spreading, evaporation, dissolution, dispersion of whole-oil droplets into the water column, photochemical oxidation, water-in-oil emulsification, microbial degradation, adsorption onto suspended particulate material, ingestion by organisms, sinking, and sedimentation. While many of these processes also are important factors in ice-covered waters, the various forms of sea ice (depending on the active state of ice growth, extent of coverage and/or decay) impart drastic, if not controlling, changes to the rates and relative importance of different oil-weathering mechanisms. Flow-through seawater wave-tank experiments in a cold room at −35°C and studies in the Chukchi Sea in late winter provide data on oil fate and effects for a variety of potential oil spill scenarios in the Arctic. Time-series chemical weathering data are presented for Prudhoe Bay crude oil released under and encapsulated in growing first-year columnar ice through spring breakup.     

The changing agricultural geography of a Finnish lakeland parish

This paper focuses upon a generation of agricultural change in Lapinlahti, a parish in the central Finnish lake district. The resettlement of displaced Karelian farmers in the immediate post-war years disrupted the established farming pattern here as elsewhere in Finland. A programme of forest clearance – socially desirable, but economically insupportable – changed the rural scene as well as providing new arable land for fodder crops to support increased dairy production. In the last decade, agricultural output surplus to market needs has been coupled with timber production insufficient to meet demand. Within the space of a generation, legislation encouraging afforestation and compensating for land withdrawn from cultivation has replaced subsidies for forest colonisation and land clearance. The reactions to this legislation of Karelians in Lapinlahti differ from those of the indigenous farmers.     

East-Central Europe's changing energy landscapes: a place for geography

Energy developments in the post-Communist states of Eastern and Central Europe (ECE) have a major impact on global energy security and sustainability, thanks to this region's key geographical position between the energy-exporting states of the former Soviet Union, on the one hand, and the energy-importing states of Western and Southern Europe, on the other. At the same time, post-socialist reforms of energy industries in this region provide unique insights into the complex relations of power, economic transformation and spatial inequality that govern energy production and consumption. This paper therefore aims to provide an initial look at some of the theoretical and policy issues that underpin the emergent 'geographies' of energy reform in ECE, as well as their embeddedness in relations of power stemming from organisational, infrastructural and economic inequalities in the region. It employs an analysis of local news reports, policy papers and statistical data to examine the intricate institutional networks and spatial formations that have governed the energy transformation process. In broader terms, the paper aims to emphasise the important role that human geography can play in making sense of the territorial differences and frictions that have emerged during the post-socialist reform process, while challenging the idea of a 'neat' neoliberal transition from a centrally planned to a market-based mode of energy regulation .     

Monitoring of small and medium embankment dams on permafrost in a changing climate

Global climate warming which began in the second half of the twentieth century is continuing. It is associated with increased risks for ecological management, especially in permafrost areas comprising over 65% of Russia. Of special concern are dams constructed on permafrost. They are subject not only to climatic impacts, but also to additional hydrothermal loads from water reservoirs. This paper presents the concept of geocryological monitoring of dams and other water resource projects and substantiates its necessity in view of climatic change. It also presents methods, scope and implementation of geocryological monitoring at medium and small dams, considering the specific nature of Far Northern areas, as well as the complicated geotechnical, hydrogeological and permafrost conditions.     

Indicators of vegetation productivity under a changing climate in British Columbia,Canada

Understanding the relationship between vegetation and climate is essential for predicting the impact of climate change on broad-scale landscape processes. Utilizing vegetation indicators derived from remotely sensed imagery, we present an approach to forecast shifts in the future distribution of vegetation. Remotely sensed metrics representing cumulative greenness, seasonality, and minimum cover have successfully been linked to species distributions over broad spatial scales. In this paper we developed models between a historical time series of Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) satellite imagery from 1987 to 2007 at 1 km spatial resolution with corresponding climate data using regression tree modeling approaches. We then applied these models to three climate change scenarios produced by the Canadian Centre for Climate Modeling and Analysis (CCCma) to predict and map productivity indices in 2065. Our results indicated that warming may lead to increased cumulative greenness in northern British Columbia and seasonality in vegetation is expected to decrease for higher elevations, while levels of minimum cover increase. The Coast Mountains of the Pacific Maritime region and high elevation edge habitats across British Columbia were forecasted to experience the greatest amount of change. Our approach provides resource managers with information to mitigate and adapt to future habitat dynamics. Forecasting vegetation productivity levels presents a novel approach for understanding the future implications of climate change on broad scale spatial patterns of vegetation.     

关于“界点”型海岛的地缘定位研究 ——以海南岛和济州岛的比较研究为中心

从现代地缘政治学的角度来讲,海洋主权直接维系着国家的兴衰更替,作为海疆基本划界标准之一,海岛是海洋上极为重要的领土标志和主权归属象征,因而地处海疆边界的海岛自然容易成为海权争端的导火索,多方交界的海岛或附近海域更是如此。目前我国周边海域争端不断,海洋权益面临严峻考验,如何审视这种边界海岛的战略定位也将成为我国维护海权的一大课题。为此,以下将尝试借用相应的陆疆概念---“界点”,以海南岛和韩国济州岛为例,分析处于多方势力海疆交界处的海岛地缘形势,以期探索一种新的海疆主权范式,进而对我国维护海洋权益、保护海洋疆土起到一定的启发作用。