A sensitivity analysis of lake water level response to changes in climate and river regimes

Lake water level regimes are influenced by climate, hydrology and land use. Intensive land use has led to a decline in lake levels in many regions, with direct impacts on lake hydrology, ecology and ecosystem services. This study examined the role of climate and river flow regime in controlling lake regimes using three different lakes with different hydraulic characteristics (volume-inflow ratio, CIR). The regime changes in the lakes were determined for five different river inflows and five different climate patterns (hot-arid, tropical, moderate, cold-arid, cold-wet), giving 75 different combinations of governing factors in lake hydrology. The input data were scaled to unify them for lake comparisons. By considering the historical lake volume fluctuations, the duration (number of months) of lake volume in different ‘wetness’ regimes from ‘dry’ to ‘wet’ was used to develop a new index for lake regime characterisation, ‘Degree of Lake Wetness’ (DLW). DLW is presented as two indices: DLW₁, providing a measure of lake filling percentage based on observed values and lake geometry, and DLW₂, providing an index for lake regimes based on historical fluctuation patterns. These indices were used to classify lake types based on their historical time series for variable climate and river inflow. The lake response time to changes in hydrology or climate was evaluated. Both DLW₁ and DLW₂ were sensitive to climate and hydrological changes. The results showed that lake level in high CIR systems depends on climate, whereas in systems with low CIR it depends more on river regime.     

西洞庭湖沉水植物分布格局对环境因子及水文情势差异的响应

沉水植物是湖泊生态系统的重要组成部分,其生产力和分布格局受环境因子特别是水文情势决定.洞庭湖是长江流域重要的大型通江湖泊,近年来受人为干扰和气候变化影响,水文节律与水质等环境因子发生改变,导致沉水植物出现衰退现象,急需开展科学恢复,因此有必要对洞庭湖沉水植物深入研究.本研究选取西洞庭湖为研究区域,于2018年和2019年夏季调查了12处典型生境、98个样点的沉水植物与水深、透明度等11个环境因子,采用独立样本T检验和冗余分析方法对沉水植物与环境因子的关系进行分析,对比年际水文情势变化的影响.结果表明：1）西洞庭湖沉水植物主要在水深较浅、水质更优、水体更为稳定的半阻隔子湖和自由连通的湖湾区分布,在河道及水位波动较大的区域分布较少,有、无沉水植物分布样点间存在显著差异的环境因子为水深、透明度、底泥总磷和pH;2）在有沉水植物分布的样点,沉水植物生物量与pH、水深和水体总磷呈显著相关关系;3）自然连通的季节性淹没湖泊沉水植物生物量在2018年高于2019年,可能与2019年5—8月沉水植物关键生长期出现的涨水过程有关,持续的高水位对沉水植物的生长产生了不利影响.维持自然水文节律、湖泊生境异质性与自由连通性、健康的水质等是恢复西洞庭沉水植物的关键,建议在水深低于3 m、营养盐浓度适中、流速及风浪较小的湖湾区或半阻隔湖泊开展沉水植物恢复.     

中国湖泊生态系统突变时空差异

人类活动的加强导致湖泊生态系统发生"突变",造成生物多样性下降、藻类暴发、水质恶化等等环境和生态问题.中国许多湖泊已经发生"突变"或面临着突变风险.获悉湖泊生态系统发生突变的时空差异对于区域湖泊的保护,预防湖泊突变的发生以及制定合适的修复策略至关重要.本研究收集了中国55个不同区域湖泊的古湖沼学数据,探讨了湖泊突变的区...     

Quantification of the stability of river flow regimes

Abstract

An important characteristic of a river flow regime type is the time of year when high and low flows are likely to occur. How likely is it, however, to observe an identified seasonal pattern each individual year? Stability is an often neglected property of a flow regime, though shifts in the seasonal behaviour of flows affect both environmental and economic activities. An approach to characterize objectively the stability of a flow regime type, based on the concept of entropy, is presented. The stabilities of river flow maxima and minima are studied separately to investigate their respective contributions to the stability character of a particular regime type. A quantitative “instability index” permits a study of the development of a flow regime's stability in time, especially important in the context of a possible climate change. The method is presented using the example of a quantitative flow regime classification developed for Scandinavia and western Europe.     

Hydrological and morphological features of the Upper Angara mouth area

The hydrological and morphological processes in the mouth area of the Upper Angara (which ranks second in terms of water abundance among Baikal Lake tributaries) are considered. The major external factors that determine those processes have been revealed. The main features of the delta??s water regime, including the effect of anthropogenic level rise in the lake, are described. Specific attention is paid to morphological processes in the delta and on the barrier bar, separating a large mouth lagoon from the lake.     

Dynamic-stochastical modeling of long-term fluctuations in Lake Baykal levels and Angara River runoff

The results of modeling of the long-term fluctuations in Lake Baikal levels and Angara River runoff are presented. The dynamic-stochastical model was developed and used to obtain analytical relationships between the statistic characteristics of the Baikal levels fluctuations and the parameters of forcing processes, including water inflow into the lake and the effective evaporation from its surface. The parameter λ determining the inertia of the Baikal levels fluctuations, decreased by about three times after Irkutsk Reservoir filling, resulting in an increase in the variance of the lake levels fluctuations. The dependence of variances of the Baikal levels fluctuations and Angara runoff on parameter λ was studied. It is shown that the decreasing in the variance of the Baikal levels fluctuations corresponds to increasing in the variance of Angara river runoff and vice versa. The results of numerical modeling of Baikal levels fluctuations show that water withdrawal from inflow into the lake has an adverse effect on Angara runoff regime.     

全球大陆末次盛冰期气候和植被研究进展

略述了鄱阳湖围垦的简要历史和现状,分析了近５０年来洪水水位的演变趋势,指出围垦使鄱阳湖面积和容积缩小,调蓄功能衰退,以致水情不断恶化,洪峰水位逐渐上升,高水位的出现频率明显加大,致灾洪水越来越频繁,在此基础上,将围垦对洪水位的影响进行了分析计算,得出了各典型年洪水在不同围垦背景下的围垦效应值。     

Estimation of potential changes in the ecosystem of Lake Ladoga in the 21st century under the impact of anthropogenic and climatic factors

The effect of potential climate changes on the ecosystem of Lake Ladoga at different levels of anthropogenic load is studied using mathematical models. The Lake Ladoga year-round circulation corresponding to potential climate changes in the lake catchment area is reproduced. The year-round regime of functioning of the lake ecosystem is reproduced using ecosystem models. The potential changes in the lake ecosystem due to changes in the phosphorus load within the limits observed in 1961–1983 are found to be more essential than those due to prognostic changes in climate.     

环境因子对乌梁素海水体营养状态的影响:基于2013-2018年监测数据的分析

为探明寒旱区浅水型湖泊乌梁素海水环境因子对水体营养状态的影响程度,以2013-2018年1月和7月湖泊水环境监测数据为基础,对具有典型代表性监测点的水体营养状态与水环境因子(盐度、pH值和水深)之间建立向量自回归模型(VAR)模型,通过方差分解方法分析水环境因子对水体营养状态的贡献水平,同时界定出水体营养状态处于最佳水平条件下的水环境因子的适宜范围.结果表明:水环境因子对水体营养状态的方差贡献初期表现显著而后趋于稳定,且盐度、pH值和水深指标的综合方差贡献率最高可达66.62%;并以全湖94.4%的水体面积不呈现富营养化状态作为标准界定出乌梁素海水体处于最佳营养状态水平条件下盐度、pH值和水深指标的适宜范围,分别为0.06～2.68 g/L、7.50～8.63和1.76～3.50 m,且湖泊在此营养水平条件下全湖盐度、pH值和水深指标的均值分别为1.55 g/L、8.15和2.33 m.因此,可以通过人类活动调控湖泊水环境因子值,并实施以水养湖的策略来推动湖泊水体营养状态向良性发展.     

Construction of Complex Indices to Characterize the External Water Exchange of Lakes under the Conditions of Uncertainty and Deficiency of Hydrological Data

About 250 objects in the zone of excessive and sufficient moistening are considered. The regime of the objects is mostly natural. A characteristic of a lake system--external water exchange of a lake is assessed.     

太湖水情特征

根据太湖湖区及环湖河道主要测站的历年水文气象资料,分析探讨了太湖的径流、水位、增减水现象和河湖流向等水情特征,为合理利用和保护湖泊水资源提供依据。     

Assessment of the Effect of Hydrometeorological Factors on the Regime of Syamozero Level Variations at Drainage Amelioration

Materials of the many-year stationary observations and investigations were used to assess the effect of the forest and agricultural amelioration on the regime of water level variations in Syamozero Lake. It was shown that under the conditions of Karelia, the drainage of up to 10% of the catchment area leads to an insignificant decrease in the annual, seasonal, and maximal spring-and-summer values of the lake level and a slight change in its minimal summer-and-autumn values. Multiple-factor equations, reliable enough for the prediction of the regime of the lake level, have been developed.     

Bindungsverhalten ausgewählter Elemente in Sedimenten eines sauren Tagebaurestsees/FNR>

Binding Character of Selected Elements in Acidic Mining Lake Sediments To investigate the vertical element distribution in an acidic mining lake the concentrations of selected elements were measured by ICP‐MS and ICP‐OES. By knowing the metal concentrations in different depths it is possible to divide these metals into three groups. While the concentrations of iron, manganese, and zinc decline with decreasing depth, those of aluminium, copper, and nickel rise up. For lead and cobalt no distinct tendency could be determined. The limit value for all measured elements was not exceeded in any sampling location. The binding character of the metals is, besides the seasonal conditions of the lake (circulation in spring and stagnation in summer), influenced by the sediment depth. The addition of Carbokalk® for lake water neutralization had no significant effect on binding character of the analyzed metals. The application of a sequential extraction procedure enabled a classification of the available metal binding forms. All analyzed metals occurred mainly in compounds which are difficult to mobilize and for environment only slightly available.     

Managed water levels and the expansion of emergent vegetation along a lakeshore

Water-level fluctuations may be used to promote the expansion of emergent vegetation along lakeshores. We present the case of the lake Volkerak-Zoommeer in the Netherlands, a fresh-water lake created in 1987 after the enclosure of an estuary. Using an experimental area in which the water level could be manipulated, it was shown that partial summer drawdown of the shoreline created suitable conditions for germination and growth of tall emergent species (in particular Phragmites australis). Plant survival and growth depended on subsequent water-level fluctuations and grazing by waterbirds. Based on the experiment and empirical data, a model was developed to predict the effects of the water-level regime on potential reed bed development. The model was applied for four hydrological scenarios that have been considered for the water-level management of the lake.     

洞庭湖近30a水位时空演变特征及驱动因素分析

洞庭湖地处北亚热带季风湿润气候区,水情时空变化尤为明显.为了探明洞庭湖水位时空演变特征,以洞庭湖6个水位站(城陵矶、鹿角、营田、杨柳潭、南咀、小河咀)、出入湖流量("三口"总入湖流量、"四水"总入湖流量、城陵矶出湖流量)和长江干流流量(宜昌、螺山)等1985-2014年逐日数据为基础,通过构建泰森多边形计算湖泊水位,运用Morlet小波分析、层次聚类分析和地统计理论研究湖泊水位的周期性变化规律及空间分布格局和自相关性.研究结果表明:洞庭湖水位变化具有典型的季节性,且年际变化具有28和22 a的多时间尺度特征;水位空间分布格局呈现出小河咀、南咀、杨柳潭(Group 1)以及城陵矶、鹿角、营田(Group 2)两种聚类,且在不同水文季节的空间自相关性依次表现为丰水期退水期涨水期枯水期.通过建立两类水位在不同水文季节与径流量的多元逐步回归模型揭示了洞庭湖水位时空演变的驱动因素,其中Group 1水位演变主要受长江干流水文情势的影响,Group 2水位演变由出入湖径流量和长江干流径流量共同作用,并随着不同水文季节江湖关系的改变以及湖泊自身水力联系的变化而变化.研究结果对于科学认识洞庭湖水位的时空演变规律以及湖泊生态系统保护和水资源的规划、管理与调控具有重要意义.     

The 2008 Kultuk earthquake with M w = 6.3 in the south of Baikal: Spatial-temporal analysis of seismic activation

The results of investigating the data of stationary and field observations in the epicentral zone of the Kultuk earthquake of August 27, 2008 with M _w = 6.3 localized south of Baikal are presented. The seismic activation amounting to 1790 aftershocks with K _p ?? 4 (M _w ?? 0.9) affected a part of the general fault bounding the southwestern coast of the lake and shallower intrabasin structures. It was established through the cluster analysis that the main shock was located at the periphery of the cloud of the concentrated seismicity component, and three main clusters reflecting a complex character of rupture in the earthquake source were identified in the zone of aftershocks. Owing to a high accuracy of aftershock hypocenters determinations (ERZ ?? 1.2 km), the local character of the seismisity-generating zones was revealed. Based on the method of mapping seismic regime parameters, it was established that zones of reduced fractionality are recognizable in the central part of the source area; in this case, the entire periphery, except for the southeastern direction (where the main shock epicenter is located), is characterized by a high fractionality, which also points to the complex character of the rupture in the source. On the whole, the aftershock sequence under consideration showed the activation of the southwestern flank of the Southern Baikal region, which remained passive for more than one century, and demonstrated destructive features of the Earth??s crust.     

近30年洞庭湖季节性水情变化及其对江湖水量交换变化的响应

江湖水量交换的变化影响着通江湖泊洞庭湖的水情,进而影响湖区社会经济及生态的可持续发展.以洞庭湖城陵矶站、南咀站以及长江干流宜昌站、螺山站1981-2012年逐日水位、流量观测数据为基础,采用单位根检验、方差分析和水位-流量绳套曲线等方法对洞庭湖季节性水情变化特征进行提取,并探究江湖水量交换变化对其产生的影响.研究表明:近30年来洞庭湖水情呈阶段性特征,与相对稳定的1981-2002年相比,2003-2012年湖泊水位总体呈下降趋势,年均水位下降0.43 m;枯、涨、丰、退水期各季水情变化特征为:2003年以后洞庭湖丰水期水位平均下降0.60 m,呈现出"高水不高"现象;退水期水位平均下降1.49 m,退水加快;枯水期水位略有上升,平均上升0.18 m;涨水期水位变化不明显.湖泊退水期水位降幅最为明显,尤其是10月大幅下降,平均下降2.03 m,有提前进入枯水期的趋势.水情变化与江湖水量交换变化密切相关:丰水期,三口(松滋、太平和藕池)分流量减小在一定程度上降低湖泊水位;退水期,三口分流量减小叠加城陵矶出口长江水位下降对洞庭湖产生拉空作用,湖泊出流加快水位被拉低;枯水期,主要是1 3月,城陵矶出口长江水位上升对湖泊顶托作用增强,湖泊出流减缓水位略有抬升.     

不同前处理对湖泊沉积物粒度测量结果的影响

选择两个不同湖泊的沉积物为研究对象,通过对比不同前处理后的测量结果,比较了各种前处理方法的优劣,并提出两种较好的前处理方法.结果显示不同湖泊沉积物和同一湖泊的不同样品对各种前处理方法的响应并不相同,从整体上来看,经过去离子水浸泡后并用超声波分散的方法效果最好,目前最常用的传统的前处理方法结果也较好.测量结果还显示,经过(NaPO3)6处理后再用超声波分散容易使频率分布曲线出现细粒次峰,产生双峰分布的型式,原因也许与(NaPO3)6的分散作用使颗粒絮凝作用减小,增强超声波对颗粒的直接撞击作用,使颗粒被击碎从而产生双峰分布有关.     

Evaluation of Microphytobenthos Productivity in Lake Pleshcheevo Based on Plant Pigment Stock

Results of spectrophotometric determination of plant pigments (chlorophylls, phaeo-pigments, and carotenoids) in the upper 3-cm layer of the littoral and sublittoral lake bottom sediments are presented for the depths corresponding to water transparency of 0.2, 0.5; 1, 2, and 3. Pigment characteristics are analyzed for the conditions, theoretically ensuring the possibility of photosynthesis and development of microphytobenthos. The presence of live algae in the bottom sediments is confirmed by directly counting the cells capable of positive photokinesis. The specific character of pigments' horizontal distribution is determined by a circum-bathymetric structure of the lake sediment complex and by illumination conditions. Potentially active, “pure” chlorophyll prevails in the euphotic area in the zone of light saturation, whereas phaeo-pigments prevail in the area of limited illumination. Regression equations describing relations between pigments concentration and depth have been obtained. The ratio between chlorophyll concentration in microphytobenthos and that of phytoplankton in the lake is estimated.     

Peculiarities of long-term variations in the temperature and heat content of the troposphere and their relation to solar activity

The results of an analysis of the spatial-temporal variations in the tropospheric temperature regime in the Northern and Southern hemispheres in 1948–2006 are presented. The possible effect of solar activity on the tropospheric temperature regime is discussed in the scope of the proposed mechanism by which the heliogeophysical factors affect the climatic characteristics and atmospheric circulation in the high-latitude troposphere through atmospheric electricity.