Quantifying the contributions of anthropogenic and natural forcings to climate changes over arid-semiarid areas during 1946–2005

In this study, the contributions from changes in man-made greenhouse gases (GHG), anthropogenic aerosols (AA), and land use (LU), as well as natural solar and volcanic (NAT) forcing changes, to observed changes in surface air temperature (T) and precipitation (P) over global land, especially over arid-semiarid areas, during 1946–2005 are quantified using observations and climate model simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Results show that the anthropogenic (ANT) forcings dominate the ubiquitous surface warming seen in observations and lead to slight increases in precipitation over most land areas, while the NAT forcing leads to small cooling over land. GHG increases are the primary factor responsible for the anthropogenic climate change, while the AA forcing offsets a large part of the GHG-induced warming and P changes. The LU forcing generally contributes little to the T and P changes from 1946 to 2005 over most land areas. Unlike the consistent temperature changes among most model simulations, precipitation changes display a large spread among the models and are incomparable with the observations in spatial distributions and magnitude, mainly due to its large internal variability that varies among individual model runs. Using an optimal fingerprinting method, we find that the observed warming over land during 1946–2005 can be largely attributed to the ANT forcings, and the combination of the ANT and NAT forcings can explain about 85~95% of the observed warming trend over global land as well as over most arid-semiarid regions such as Northern China. However, the anthropogenic influences on precipitation over the past 60 years are generally undetectable over most land areas, including most arid-semiarid regions. This indicates that internal variability is still larger than the forced change for land precipitation.     

冬季西风环流指数的变率及其与北半球温度变化的关系研究

用H40°N-H65°N即40°N和65°N纬圈平均位势高度的差来定义西风指数,可以很好地反映温带地区西风的强弱。西风环流强的年份,北半球气温通常偏高,主要是中纬度大陆变暖明显,这可能与中高纬度西风强时,向北的经向热量输送也加强有关。在长期变化的趋势上,1950年代以前北半球偏暖时期的指数偏低,而偏冷时期的指数偏高。但近30多年来,伴随全球加速变暖,西风指数也持续加强,这是否与温室效应的加强有关还有待深入研究。     

Assessments of the global anthropogenic greenhouse and sulfate signal using different types of simplified climate models

Summary The problem of global climate change forced by anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG) and sulfur components (SU) has to be addressed by different methods, including the consideration of concurrent forcing mechanisms and the analysis of observations. This is due to the shortcoming and uncertainties of all methods, even in case of the most sophisticated ones. In respect to the global mean surface air temperature, we compare the results from multiple observational statistical models such as multiple regression (MRM) and neural networks (NNM) with those of energy balance (EBM) and general circulation models (GCM) where, in the latter case, we refer to the recent IPCC Report. Our statistical assessments, based on the 1866–1994 period, lead to a GHG signal of 0.8–1.3 K and a combined GHG-SU signal of 0.5–0.8 K detectable in observations. This is close to GCM simulations and clearly larger than the volcanic, solar and ENSO (El Niño/southern oscillation) signals also considered.With 2 Figures     

An analogue model to derive additional climate change scenarios from existing GCM simulations

 Changes in land surface driving variables, predicted by GCM transient climate change experiments, are confirmed to exhibit linearity in the global mean land temperature anomaly, ΔT _l . The associated constants of proportionality retain spatial and seasonal characteristics of the GCM output, whilst ΔT _l is related to radiative forcing anomalies. The resultant analogue model is shown to be robust between GCM runs and as such provides a computationally efficient technique of extending existing GCM experiments to a large range of climate change scenarios. As an example impacts study, the analogue model is used to drive a terrestrial ecosystem model, and predicted changes in terrestrial carbon are found to be similar to those when using GCM anomalies directly. Received: 4 January 1999 / Accepted: 11 December 1999     

Multiforced statistical assessments of greenhouse-gas-induced surface air temperature change 1890–1985

Based on univariate correlation and coherence analyses and considering the physical basis of the relationships, a simple multiforced (multiple) statistical concept is used which correlates observational climatic time series simultaneously with volcanic, solar, ENSO, and the anthropogenic greenhouse gases forcing. This is appropriate to remove some natural climate noise in the observed data and to evaluate the components (signals) possibly due to the anthropogenic greenhouse gas forcing (CO₂, or equivalent CO₂ implying additional gases) during industrial time. In this paper, we apply this technique to 100 global box data time series 1890–1985, of the surface air temperature, using observed data from Hansen and Lebedeff. The results are presented in terms of latitudinal-seasonal and regional trends, where the observed trend patterns are compared with the hypothetical signals (statistical assessments) possibly due to anthropogenic greenhouse forcing. These latter signals can be amplified to enable a comparison with corresponding results from general circulation model (GCM) CO₂ doubling experiments. These observed-statistical assessments lead to results which are, at least qualitatively and in respect to the zonal mean temperatures, very similar to some GCM experiments indicating the maximum CO₂ doubling signals (statistical assessment > 12 K) in the arctic winter. However, these signals are moderate in the tropics and in the Southern Hemisphere (global average 2.8–4.4 K). As far as the industrial signals are concerned (observed period) these signals are somewhat larger (maximum 7 K, global average 0.5–0.9 K) than the observed trends (maximum 5 K, global average 0.5 K). Phase shifts of cause and effect may amplify these signals but are very uncertain.This paper was presented at the International Conference on Modelling of Global Climate Change and Variability, held in Hamburg 11–15 September 1989 under the auspices of the Meteorological Institute of the University of Hamburg and the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology. Guest Editor for these papers is Dr. L. Dümenil     

中国区域气候极值重现水平的非平稳模型及趋势分析

应用基于GEV(Generalized Extreme Value)分布的平稳/非平稳极值概率模型,拟合中国区域489站自建站至2013年极端最高、最低温度和日最大降水量的年极值序列,并导出极值的重现水平及其变率随重现期和时间变化的一般表达式。着重分析了气候极值的"常态"(重现期为2年)与"极端态"(重现期为50年)的变化趋势及其线性变率的空间格局。详细探讨了极值的常态与极端态变化趋势相反的原因以及可能的影响。结果表明,极端最高温度在东部季风区普遍适用平稳模型;在其他地区更适用非平稳模型,其常态和极端态都以增温为主。极端最低温度在全国范围内普遍适用非平稳模型,其常态和极端态也都以增温为主,但在东北局部地区极端态呈现与常态相反的降温趋势。日最大降水量则在全国范围内普遍适用平稳模型。当GEV分布的尺度参数随时间变化时,与极值的常态相比,极端态的变率范围要大得多,并可能导致两者的变率异号的情形;尤其是当气候极值的常态日趋平缓而极端态却日益极端时,可能导致更为剧烈的灾害性天气。     

A projection of extreme climate events in the 21st century over east Asia using the community climate system model 3

A series of coupled atmosphere-ocean-land global climate model (GCM) simulations using the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Climate System Model 3 (CCSM3) has been performed for the period 1870–2099 at a T85 horizontal resolution following the GCM experimental design suggested in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4). First, a hindcast was performed using the atmospheric concentrations of three greenhouse gases (CO₂, CH₄, N₂O) specified annually and globally on the basis of observations for the period 1870–1999. The hindcast results were compared with observations to evaluate the GCM’s reliability in future climate simulations. Second, climate projections for a 100-year period (2000–2099) were made using six scenarios of the atmospheric concentrations of the three greenhouse gases according to the A1FI, A1T, A1B, A2, B1, and B2 emission profiles of the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios. The present CCSM simulations are found to be consistent with IPCC’s AR4 results in the temporal and spatial distributions for both the present-day and future periods. The GCM results were used to examine the changes in extreme temperatures and precipitation in East Asia and Korea. The extreme temperatures were categorized into warm and cold events: the former includes tropical nights, warm days, and heat waves during summer (June–July–August) and the latter includes frost days, cold days, and cold surges during winter (December–January–February). Focusing on Korea, the results predict more frequent heat waves in response to future emissions: the projected percentage changes between the present day and the late 2090s range from 294% to 583% depending on the emission scenario. The projected global warming is predicted to decrease the frequency of cold extreme events; however, the projected changes in cold surge frequency are not statistically significant. Whereas the number of cold surges in the A1FI emission profile decreases from the present-day value by up to 24%, the decrease in the B1 scenario is less than 1%. The frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events year-round were examined. Both the frequency and the intensity of these events are predicted to increase in the region around Korea. The present results will be helpful for establishing an adaptation strategy for possible climate change nationwide, especially extreme climate events, associated with global warming.     

A GCM study of future climate response to aerosol pollution reductions

We use the global atmospheric GCM aerosol model ECHAM5-HAM to asses possible impacts of future air pollution mitigation strategies on climate. Air quality control strategies focus on the reduction of aerosol emissions. Here we investigate the extreme case of a maximum feasible end-of-pipe abatement of aerosols in the near term future (2030) in combination with increasing greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations. The temperature response of increasing GHG concentrations and reduced aerosol emissions leads to a global annual mean equilibrium temperature response of 2.18 K. When aerosols are maximally abated only in the Industry and Powerplant sector, while other sectors stay with currently enforced regulations, the temperature response is 1.89 K. A maximum feasible abatement applied in the Domestic and Transport sector, while other sectors remain with the current legislation, leads to a temperature response of 1.39 K. Increasing GHG concentrations alone lead to a temperature response of 1.20 K. We also simulate 2–5% increases in global mean precipitation among all scenarios considered, and the hydrological sensitivity is found to be significantly higher for aerosols than for GHGs. Our study, thus highlights the huge potential impact of future air pollution mitigation strategies on climate and supports the need for urgent GHG emission reductions. GHG and aerosol forcings are not independent as both affect and are influenced by changes in the hydrological cycle. However, within the given range of changes in aerosol emissions and GHG concentrations considered in this study, the climate response towards increasing GHG concentrations and decreasing aerosols emissions is additive.     

Assessment of the changes in extreme vulnerability over East Asia due to global warming

A number of indices have been employed to describe weather extremes on the basis of climate regimes and public concerns. In this study, we combined these traditional indices into four groups according to whether they relate to warm (T_warm), cold (T_cold), wet (P_wet), or dry (P_dry) extremes. Analysis of the combined indices calculated for the daily temperatures and precipitation at 750 meteorological stations in Korea, China, and Japan for 1960s?C2000s shows increasing trends in T_warm and P_dry events and decreasing trends in T_cold events in recent decades, particularly in the northern part of East Asia. A notable regional variation is an increase in the P_wet events in the Korean Peninsula. We applied the same analysis to a 200-year global climate model simulation for 1900?C2099 using the National Center for Atmospheric Research-Community Climate System Model 3. During the 20th century, the changes in T_warm and T_cold calculated from the model data are largely consistent with those calculated from the observations, especially in northern East Asia. The model projections for the 21st century indicate statistically significant increasing T_warm and decreasing T_cold trends in extreme events over the region. Results obtained from historical archives and model simulations using our combined weather extreme indices suggest that northern East Asia will be subject to increased warm and dry extremes and the Korea Peninsula will experience more wet extremes.     

Evaluation of the antarctic surface wind climate from ERA reanalyses and RACMO2/ANT simulations based on automatic weather stations

A continental scale evaluation of Antarctic surface winds is presented from global ERA-40 and ERA-Interim reanalyses and RACMO2/ANT regional climate model at 55 and 27 km horizontal resolution, based on a comparison with observational data from 115 automatic weather stations (AWS). The Antarctic surface wind climate can be classified based on the Weibull shape factor k _w . Very high values (k _w  > 3) are found in the interior plateaus, typical of very uniform katabatic-dominated winds with high directional constancy. In the coast and all over the Antarctic Peninsula the shape factors are similar to the ones found in mid-latitudes (k _w  < 3) typical of synoptically dominated wind climates. The Weibull shape parameter is systematically overpredicted by ERA reanalyses. This is partly corrected by RACMO2/ANT simulations which introduce more wind speed variability in complex terrain areas. A significant improvement is observed in the performance of ERA-Interim over ERA-40, with an overall decrease of 14 % in normalized mean absolute error. In escarpment and coastal areas, where the terrain gets rugged and katabatic winds are further intensified in confluence zones, ERA-Interim bias can be as high as 10 m s^?1. These large deviations are partly corrected by the regional climate model. Given that RACMO2/ANT is an independent simulation of the near-surface wind speed climate, as it is not driven by observations, it compares very well to the ERA-Interim and AWS-115 datasets.     

Food consumption,diet shifts and associated non-CO2 greenhouse gases from agricultural production

Today, the agricultural sector accounts for approximately 15% of total global anthropogenic emissions, mainly methane and nitrous oxide. Projecting the future development of agricultural non-CO₂ greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions is important to assess their impacts on the climate system but poses many problems as future demand of agricultural products is highly uncertain. We developed a global land use model (MAgPIE) that is suited to assess future anthropogenic agricultural non-CO₂ GHG emissions from various agricultural activities by combining socio-economic information on population, income, food demand, and production costs with spatially explicit environmental data on potential crop yields. In this article we describe how agricultural non-CO₂ GHG emissions are implemented within MAgPIE and compare our simulation results with other studies. Furthermore, we apply the model up to 2055 to assess the impact of future changes in food consumption and diet shifts, but also of technological mitigation options on agricultural non-CO₂ GHG emissions. As a result, we found that global agricultural non-CO₂ emissions increase significantly until 2055 if food energy consumption and diet preferences remain constant at the level of 1995. Non-CO₂ GHG emissions will rise even more if increasing food energy consumption and changing dietary preferences towards higher value foods, like meat and milk, with increasing income are taken into account. In contrast, under a scenario of reduced meat consumption, non-CO₂ GHG emissions would decrease even compared to 1995. Technological mitigation options in the agricultural sector have also the capability of decreasing non-CO₂ GHG emissions significantly. However, these technological mitigation options are not as effective as changes in food consumption. Highest reduction potentials will be achieved by a combination of both approaches.     

Instability indices for the Cyprus area

Summary In this paper, forecasts of thunderstorms for the Cyprus area, are examined, by using various instability indices. In addition, some combinations of the indices are proposed since they proved more successful in thunderstorms forecasting. A statistical method pointed out that the Pickup index (PI) and the suggested combination of the humidity index (HI) with cyclonic curved flow at 500 hPa are more successful than the other ones examined in this study.With 1 Figure     

Objective comparison of patterns of CO2 induced climate change in coupled GCM experiments

 Four transient GCM experiments simulating the climatic response to gradually increasing CO₂, and two equilibrium doubled CO₂ experiments are compared. The zonally symmetric and asymmetric features of climate are both examined. Surface air temperature, sea level pressure, the 500 mb height and the relative topography between 500 and 1000 mb are analyzed. In the control simulations, the broad aspects of the present climate are in most cases well reproduced, although the stationary eddies tend to be less reliably simulated than the zonal means. However, the agreement between the four transient experiments on the geographical patterns of climate change is less impressive. While some zonally symmetric features, in particular the meridional distribution of surface air warming in the boreal winter, are rather similar in all models, the intermodel cross correlations for the zonally asymmetric changes are low. The agreement is largely restricted to some very general features such as more warming over the continents than over the oceans. The largest discrepancies between the two equilibrium-doubled CO₂ experiments and the transient experiments are found at the high southern latitudes, in particular in the austral winter. To identify the most robust geographical patterns of change in the transient experiments, the standard t test is used to determine if the four-model mean change is significantly above or below the global mean. Received: 18 January 1996 / Accepted: 5 July 1996     

The global energy cycle of stationary and transient atmospheric waves: Results from ECMWF analyses

Summary The role of stationary (monthly mean) and transient (departure from monthly mean) waves within the atmospheric energy cycle is examined using global analyses from the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) for the period 1980–1987. Only January and July averages are considered.It is confirmed that planetary stationary waves are basically baroclinic. Their contribution to the globally averaged energy cycle of the atmosphere is comparable to that of the transient waves. In January they contribute about 40% to the baroclinic conversion (CA) from zonal mean to eddy available potential energy. Local values for the northern hemisphere even show a predominant role of the stationary wave conversions over those originating from transient waves. Part of the available potential energy of stationary waves (A _SE) is converted to kinetic energy by warm air rising and cold air sinking. Nonlinear energy conversion, which can be interpreted as destruction of stationary temperature waves by transients, is the second sink forA _SE. The order of magnitude of these two processes is similar.Barotropic nonlinear conversions, though negligible in the global average, reveal large conversion rates between the mean positions of the polar and the subtropical jets. Their orientation is suggestive of a tendency to increase stationary wave kinetic energyK _SE at its local minimum between the jets at the expense of the synoptic scale transients.While all terms of the energy cycle related to stationary waves reveal a predominance of the planetary scale (zonal wave numbers 1–3) transient waves are governed by synoptic scale waves (zonal wave numbers 4–9) only with respect to the baroclinic and barotropic conversions: a significant amount of transient wave energy (50% for the global average ofA _TE) is due to planetary scale waves.With 15 Figures     

The modification of greenhouse gas warming by the direct effect of sulphate aerosols

 The Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis (CCCma) second generation climate model (GCMII) consists of an atmospheric GCM coupled to mixed layer ocean. It is used to investigate the climate response to a doubling of the CO₂ concentration together with the direct effect of scattering by sulphate aerosols. As expected, the aerosols offset some of the greenhouse gas (GHG) warming; the global annual mean screen temperature change due to doubled CO₂ is 3.4 °C in this model and this is reduced to 2.7 °C when an estimate of the direct effect of anthropogenic sulphate aerosols is included. The pattern of climate response to the comparatively localized aerosol forcing is not itself localized, and it bears a striking resemblance to the response pattern that arises from the globally distributed change in GHG forcing. This “non-local” response to “localized” forcing indicates that the pattern of climate response is determined, to first order, by the overall magnitude of the change in forcing rather than its detailed nature or structure. Feedback processes operating in the system apparently determine this pattern by locally amplifying and suppressing the response to the magnitude of the change in forcing. The influence of the location of the change in forcing is relatively small. These “non-local” and “local” effects of aerosol forcing are characterized and displayed and some of their consequences discussed. Effects on the moisture budget and on the energetics of the global climate are also examined. Received: 10 June 1997 / Accepted: 8 January 1998     

Impacts of future Indian greenhouse gas emission scenarios on projected climate change parameters deduced from MAGICC model

The MAGICC (Model for the Assessment of Greenhouse gas Induced Climate Change) model simulation has been carried out for the 2000–2100 period to investigate the impacts of future Indian greenhouse gas emission scenarios on the atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide besides other parameters like radiative forcing and temperature. For this purpose, the default global GHG (Greenhouse Gases) inventory was modified by incorporation of Indian GHG emission inventories which have been developed using three different approaches namely (a) Business-As-Usual (BAU) approach, (b) Best Case Scenario (BCS) approach and (c) Economy approach (involving the country’s GDP). The model outputs obtained using these modified GHG inventories are compared with various default model scenarios such as A1B, A2, B1, B2 scenarios of AIM (Asia-Pacific Integrated Model) and P50 scenario (median of 35 scenarios given in MAGICC). The differences in the range of output values for the default case scenarios (i.e., using the GHG inventories built into the model) vis-à-vis modified approach which incorporated India-specific emission inventories for AIM and P50 are quite appreciable for most of the modeled parameters. A reduction of 7% and 9% in global carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions has been observed respectively for the years 2050 and 2100. Global methane (CH₄) and global nitrous oxide (N₂O) emissions indicate a reduction of 13% and 15% respectively for 2100. Correspondingly, global concentrations of CO₂, CH₄ and N₂O are estimated to reduce by about 4%, 4% and 1% respectively. Radiative forcing of CO₂, CH₄ and N₂O indicate reductions of 6%, 14% and 4% respectively for the year 2100. Global annual mean temperature change (incorporating aerosol effects) gets reduced by 4% in 2100. Global annual mean temperature change reduces by 5% in 2100 when aerosol effects have been excluded. In addition to the above, the Indian contributions in global CO₂, CH₄ and N₂O emissions have also been assessed by India Excluded (IE) scenario. Indian contribution in global CO₂ emissions was observed in the range of 10%–26%, 6%–36% and 10%–38% respectively for BCS, Economy and BAU approaches, for the years 2020, 2050 and 2100 for P50, A1B-AIM, A2-AIM, B1-AIM & B2-AIM scenarios. CH₄ and N₂O emissions indicate about 4%–10% and 2%–3% contributions respectively in the global CH₄ and N₂O emissions for the years 2020, 2050 and 2100. These Indian GHG emissions have significant influence on global GHG concentrations and consequently on climate parameters like RF and ∆T. The study reflects not only the importance of Indian emissions in the global context but also underlines the need of incorporation of country specific GHG emissions in modeling to reduce uncertainties in simulation of climate change parameters.     

Validation of synoptic circulation patterns simulated by the Canadian climate centre general circulation model for western north America: Research note

Abstract

In order to assess the ability of a GCM to simulate regional to synoptic scale atmospheric structures, a correlation‐based computer‐assisted gridded map typing procedure is used to compare daily pressure (MSL) and geopotential height fields (500 hPa) from a GCM simulation of the present climate to a decade of NMC analyses. The model is able to reproduce the entire range of synoptic circulation types. However, statistically significant differences in the seasonal frequencies and variances of the main circulation types are evident. These differences, which are most pronounced in the winter (at 500 hPa) and in spring and autumn in the MSL fields, are consistent with subtle errors in the predicted fields at the hemispheric scale. The lack of agreement between the NMC climatology and the “control” simulation precludes extension of this approach to investigation of climate change impacts in western north America, and to more meteorologically dynamic extra‐tropical regions. The map‐typing procedure is shown to be an appropriate GCM synoptic‐scale validation tool that permits direct comparison of GCM output and observed fields. As such, it has the potential to elucidate the regional‐scale impacts of global climatic change through established synoptic circulation environment relationships.     

Simulation and Evaluation of Terrestrial Ecosystem NPP with M-SDGVM over Continental China

Using the regional terrestrial Net Primary Production (NPP) from different observations and models over China, we validated the NPP simulations and explored the relationship between NPP and climate variation at interannual and decadal scales in the Modified Sheffield Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (M-SDGVM) during 1981–2000. M-SDGVM shows agreement with the NPP data from 743 sites under the Global Primary Production Data Initiative (GPPDI). The spatial and the zonal averaged NPP of M-SDGVM agree well with ...     

Greenhouse gas emissions from global cities under SSP/RCP scenarios, 1990 to 2100

Projections of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are critical to enable a better understanding and anticipation of future climate change under different socio-economic conditions and mitigation strategies. The climate projections and scenarios assessed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, following the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP)-Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) framework, have provided a rich understanding of the constraints and opportunities for policy action. However, the current emissions scenarios lack an explicit treatment of urban emissions within the global context. Given the pace and scale of urbanization, with global urban populations expected to increase from about 4.4 billion today to about 7 billion by 2050, there is an urgent need to fill this knowledge gap. Here, we estimate the share of global GHG emissions driven by urban areas from 1990 to 2100 based on the SSP-RCP framework. The urban consumption-based GHG emissions are presented in five regional aggregates and based on a combination of the urban population share, 2015 urban per capita CO₂eq carbon footprint, SSP-based national CO₂eq emissions, and recent analysis of urban per capita CO₂eq trends. We find that urban areas account for the majority of global GHG emissions in 2015 (61.8%). Moreover, the urban share of global GHG emissions progressively increases into the future, exceeding 80% in some scenarios by the end of the century. The combined urban areas in Asia and Developing Pacific, and Developed Countries account for 65.0% to 73.3% of cumulative urban consumption-based emissions between 2020 and 2100 across the scenarios. Given these dominant roles, we describe the implications for potential urban mitigation in each of the scenario narratives in order to meet the goal of climate neutrality within this century.     

Temperature Extremes from Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM) Climate Change Projections

Future climate projections of extreme events can help forewarn society of high-impact events and allow the development of better adaptation strategies. In this study a non-stationary model for Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distributions is used to analyze the trend in extreme temperatures in the context of a changing climate and compare it with the trend in average temperatures.

The analysis is performed using the climate projections of the Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM), under an IPCC SRES A2 greenhouse gas emissions scenario, over North America. Annual extremes in daily minimum and maximum temperatures are analyzed. Significant positive trends for the location parameter of the GEV distribution are found, indicating an expected increase in extreme temperature values. The scale parameter of the GEV distribution, on the other hand, reveals a decrease in the variability of temperature extremes in some continental regions. Trends in the annual minimum and maximum temperatures are compared with trends in average winter and summer temperatures, respectively. In some regions, extreme temperatures exhibit a significantly larger increase than the seasonal average temperatures.

The CRCM projections are compared with those of its driving model and framed in the context of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, phase 3 (CMIP3) Global Climate Model projections. This enables us to establish the CRCM position within the CMIP3 climate projection uncertainty range. The CRCM is validated against the HadEX2 dataset in order to assess the CRCM representation of temperature extremes in the present climate. The validation is also framed in the context of CMIP3 validation results. The CRCM cold extremes validate better and are closer to the driving model and CMIP3 projections than the hot extremes.