Investigating the Spatiotemporal Links Between Disorder,Crime, and the Fear of Crime

While links between social and physical disorder, crime, and the fear of crime have long been areas of research interest, few studies have looked at these links from a spatiotemporal viewpoint. This is somewhat surprising, as many of the factors associated with disorder, crime, and fear are known to vary over time and space. This paper uses GISystems to investigate potential spatiotemporal links between these areas in Wollongong, New South Wales, with specific focus on links between graffiti and the fear of crime. The results reveal that the distribution of fear of crime varies considerably over time and is often spatially coincident with concentrations of disorder. Graffiti was found to be one of the most prevalent types of physical disorder. The results are discussed in the context of the “broken windows” thesis and strategic intervention at the community level.     

PERCEPTIONS OF CRIME AND SAFETY IN THREE MIDWESTERN PARKS*

While recent research provides a general model of the causes and consequences of fear of crime, little is known about how the relationships among these model components may vary from one setting to another. Garofalo's fear of crime model is used to explore the extent and impact of fear of crime in recreational settings. Two hundred sixty-eight visitors to three Midwestern district level parks were interviewed on-site using a structured questionnaire. Results generally support the model and demonstrate a link between perception and behavior related to fear of crime. Respondents who felt unsafe in the park alone also tended to report avoidance behavior. Females were more likely than males to report both fear and avoidance. Direct experience with park crime and incivility, perceptions of other park visitors, and familiarity with the park were not strongly associated with either feelings of safety or reported avoidance.     

The spatial stability of alcohol outlets and crime in post‐disaster Christchurch,New Zealand

The devastating Canterbury Earthquakes of 2010 and 2011 left an indelible mark on the city of Christchurch. The social and economic upheaval that immediately followed the Earthquakes has, in time, been replaced with a period of rebuild and transformation. In this study we investigate the effects that the Canterbury Earthquakes had on two important and inter‐related phenomena in the city: alcohol availability and crime. More specifically, we investigate how alcohol outlets and crime across six different categories changed in magnitude and spatial distribution pre‐ (end‐2009) and post‐ (end‐2014) earthquake. We do this using a variety of geospatial techniques including a relatively new method: the spatial point pattern test which allows for the identification of changes in spatial patterns at the local level. Results indicate that both alcohol outlets and crime have decreased in magnitude since the Canterbury Earthquakes. Using the spatial point pattern test we found statistically significant differences in spatial point patterns for both alcohol outlets and all crime types pre‐ to post‐earthquake. The similarity in the differences of the spatial distributions of alcohol outlets and crime provides a first empirical clue of their potential association in the city post‐earthquake.     

犯罪恐惧感与犯罪活动空间分布的匹配关系及其影响因素

利用北京社会调查、法律文书、兴趣点、路网、定位数据,发现盗窃及暴力犯罪密度对犯罪恐惧感并无显著关联或影响偏弱,犯罪活动与犯罪恐惧感存在“匹配且具高安全性”“匹配且具高危险性”“不匹配且比主观感知更危险”“不匹配且比主观感知更安全”等类型。脆弱人群更易高估安全风险;防卫空间及街道眼理论分别适用于解释客观犯罪和主观感知,高密度、混合型、密路网的可渗透环境容易产生比主观感知更危险的情形;物理与社会失序、居住不稳定性会产生比主观感知更安全的情形;高人员流动性及高地位社区的居民则易低估安全风险;出入管控和环境维护能起到减犯罪、降恐惧的双重作用。     

The geography of crime fear: A pilot study exploring event-based perceptions of risk using mobile technology

The current pilot study explores whether mobile technology can be leveraged in survey research to gather meaningful context-dependent data on fear of crime and risk perception formation. A series of Ecological Momentary Assessments (EMAs) were administered to students enrolled at an Australian University (N = 20), using a smartphone application. Analysis of data collected from participants in their everyday activity spaces a) show strong internal consistency among multiple measures of crime fear; b) indicate that perceptual measures of social cohesion are significant predictors of victimisation worry; and c) support most hypothesised associations between concepts contained in contemporary models of crime fear. Unfortunately, some aspects of the pilot study design could not be implemented as planned, which have implications for future research. Specifically, we found that triggering participant's surveys based on their location (rather than time), produced data that was not conducive to robust place-based analysis. In spite of this limitation, we offer alternative means of measuring the effects of place on fear of crime using mobile devices.     

街头抢劫者前犯罪经历对其后作案地选择的影响

作案地选择是犯罪地理学的研究主题。已有的重复作案地选择的研究表明,犯罪者“前案件”作案地选择对他们“后案件”作案地选择具有影响,但以往研究关注的是先前的犯罪时间和地点对其后续作案地选择的影响,仍未检验犯罪者在“前案件”中犯罪经历的具体作用。因此,论文以中国东南沿海ZG市为例,利用街头抢劫者的抓捕数据和混合Logit模型,聚焦探析街头抢劫者先前的个体犯罪经历对他们随后的作案地选择的影响。研究发现：街头抢劫者在“前案件”中的犯罪间隔、犯罪出行和当场被捕等个体犯罪经历对其“后案件”作案地选择具有强烈的影响,即“前后案件”的犯罪间隔越临近、“前案件”犯罪出行距离越短,以及“前案件”未当场被捕,则大大增加了街头抢劫者返回到先前抢劫区域再次犯罪的可能性。并通过警察访谈和结合理论分析,发现“前案件”未当场被捕是由犯罪者当场被捕的恐惧感、警察特殊的干预方式,以及社会凝聚力和犯罪防控的相互作用而形成。研究结论可为警务部门的“事前防控”与“主动处置”提供一定的参考。     

Neighbourhoods and health: A review of the New Zealand literature

Over the past two decades, there has been a resurgence of interest into place‐based influences on health. Researchers have identified that various characteristics of neighbourhoods exert an influence on the health outcomes and behaviours of local residents. Understanding the processes linking places to health provides considerable potential for a range of policy interventions. We review the New Zealand‐based neighbourhoods and health research. Consideration is given to the types of neighbourhood characteristics, as well the range of health outcomes that have been studied. Finally, we suggest some priorities for further research into the mechanisms underpinning neighbourhood influences on health in New Zealand.     

四川省拐卖儿童犯罪的时空演变过程及影响因素分析

拐卖儿童犯罪给受害者带来身心创伤、给家庭带来巨大悲痛和长期困扰,已成为社会和学界关注的焦点问题。该领域犯罪地理学视角的研究兴起较晚,且主要侧重宏观整体分析,当前亟需聚焦高发源地和重点人群作精细解析。为此,论文针对中国拐卖犯罪重灾源区四川省,综合运用数理统计、空间分析、文本分析、案例分析等方法探究四川省拐卖儿童犯罪的时空演变过程与影响因素。研究发现：① 数量上,被拐男童明显多于女童,被拐儿童主要来自乡村,虽呈现1~6岁和14~17岁的“双峰”型特征,但整体趋向低龄化。② 时间上,犯罪年际分布大致呈倒“V”型波动态势,高发期为1981—2000年;犯罪年内分布集中于夏半年,周内分布周末高发,日期分布每月1日的被拐儿童数量最多。③ 空间上,存在一个被拐高发区和多个被拐次高发区;县域尺度上的犯罪格局呈现“高—高”和“低—低”聚集;随着时间的变化,拐出热点区不断向南部和东部蔓延;宏观贩运路径上,向中东部地区分散拐入,华北和华南是重点拐入的“南北两汇”。④ 对1981—2000年犯罪高发期的原因解析发现,受教育水平与城乡收入差距是影响拐卖儿童犯罪的主导因素。     

Fortress Australia? (In)security and private governance in a gated residential estate

Part of a broader trend towards all-inclusive master planned developments, gated residential estates are an intensely private form of residential development with a degree of securitisation. Gated residential estates have been the topic of intense debate in urban planning and policy circles and the target of fierce criticism for potential exclusionary outcomes as fearful residents lock themselves away from the ills of wider urban society. Crime, a fear of crime and the need for security dominate discussions and understandings of gated residential developments in Australia without much empirical validation. This paper poses two key research questions: does fear of crime and need for increased security drive residents towards gated estates; and what are the lived experiences of security, gates and crime once residing within a gated estate? Based on in-depth research in Macquarie Links (one of Sydney's largest gated estates) this paper offers insights into the lived dimensions of gated estates. The paper explores the attractions and realities of security services and infrastructure, private control over the residential environment and the importance placed by the residents on the ability to protect the nature of their neighbourhood and to protect themselves from any ‘unwanted’ activities or groups. The discussion in this paper demonstrates that for the residents in the study, residing in a secure residential neighbourhood is less about the role and place of physical security and security services, and more to do with protection afforded by the private governance structure of the neighbourhood.     

Affective neighbourly relations between migrant and local residents in Shanghai

In urban China there is growing scholarly interest in neighbourhood social interaction, but most studies focus on overt neighbouring activities whilst less is known about the affective dimension of neighbourhood relations, such as mutual trust and care. By surveying 1,420 residents from Shanghai, this study examines the affective relationship between rural migrants and local urban neighbours and explores whether the frequency of neighbouring and contextual characteristics may affect this outcome. Our results show that residents who interact more with out-group neighbours also tend to describe their relationship with them as more caring and amicable. Furthermore, residents in working class neighbourhoods tend to rely on intergroup neighbouring as means of facilitating mutual trust. In contrast, residents of neighbourhoods with commodified housing stock already possess a strong affective relationship with out-group neighbours because of a shared identity as middle-class homeowners and, therefore, do not rely on neighbourly interactions as a facilitator of neighbourly trust.     

地理学视角下犯罪者行为研究进展

犯罪地理学以社会问题为导向,关注犯罪现象的格局、过程与机理,沿着“揭示问题、服务安全、解决问题”的思路,去破解复杂的社会难题,并在公共安全和犯罪防控领域贡献力量。本文基于地理学视角,从犯罪出行、犯罪空间决策、重复犯罪三大研究主题出发,综述了国内外犯罪者行为的研究进展。结果表明,国外研究取得了较多成果,如：①犯罪出行方面发现了就近掠夺和外出犯罪的空间模式;不同犯罪类型的出行距离存在显著差异;以及犯罪出行距离受犯罪者个体特征、地理特征、犯罪收益和情感因素的影响。②犯罪空间决策受经济因素、社会因素以及犯罪者空间意识的影响。③重复犯罪存在时空聚集性和时空临近性。国内研究主要集中在国外理论与经验引介,犯罪时空分布、形成机理与空间防控,以及犯罪模拟与预测方面,而地理学视角下犯罪者行为研究尚处于初始阶段,有许多空白亟需填补。总体而言,在犯罪者研究领域,仍存在以下3点不足：①在犯罪出行方面,综合的视角不多;②在犯罪空间决策方面,尚未涉及犯罪空间决策的时间差异及形成机制;③在重复犯罪方面,尚未考虑过去的犯罪活动和经验。最后,论文从视角、内容、方法及应用上提出未来的研究重点：注重综合性视角的实证分析;开展针对犯罪团伙的研究;合理利用大数据分析犯罪者行为的规律、过程和机理,避免导致推理错误;注重理论研究成果的转化,满足国家社会治安的重大需求,并提升犯罪地理学的学科价值。     

城市犯罪时空特征与机制——以北京城八区财产类犯罪为例

城市犯罪的时空模式是地理学“格局”和“过程”研究的重要课题。本文以北京城八 区财产类犯罪为研究对象,利用GIS工具获取和处理空间数据,探讨城市犯罪的时空格局和时 空模式,并建立时空机制模型。研究发现：北京城市犯罪总体上呈现多中心分布格局,在商 业繁华地带和对外交通运输区存在明显的高强度带;各种犯罪类型空间格局既有共同性又有 差异性;城市犯罪嫌疑人数量存在季节分异特点,但同一区域的犯罪地点数目具有一定的稳 定性;就时空机制而言,场所的时空特征作用于财产犯罪参与者,进而作用于犯罪要素并影 响犯罪实施成功与否,而不同类型的财产犯罪对场所时空特征要求不同,这些要求一旦与北 京城市环境的特有属性耦合,便产生犯罪高发地段和高发时段,最终影响城市空间结构特点。     

Fear of crime: testing alternative hypotheses

This paper examines the spatial and social distribution of the fear of crime and the relationships of such fear with aspects of the environment. Through an analysis of a questionnaire survey conducted in a variety of areas in Stoke-on-Trent in the English Midlands, it considers both the causes of the fear of crime and the associations that have been identified with other dimensions shaping vulnerability. It concludes by offering some guidance on how to address the differences between those populations who fear crime most and those who are most vulnerable.     

ZG市诈骗犯罪的时空分布与影响因素

诈骗犯罪是现代城市中亟待解决的一大社会难题。现有研究多从社会学角度,基于微观层次探讨影响诈骗受害的个人属性特征,缺乏从地理学视角对诈骗受害者生存环境中的中宏观层次因素的考虑。本文基于犯罪地理学视角,综合运用平均最近邻、核密度以及负二项回归等研究方法,对ZG市5类诈骗警情的时空分布特征和基于建成环境与社会环境两大维度的影响因素进行了深入探讨。结果表明：① 各类诈骗的时间分布规律各异,但整体上呈现出工作日高于休息日、下午或晚上高于上午、凌晨时段为最低的特征;② 和其他类型的城市犯罪类似,诈骗犯罪整体呈现出与老城区距离衰减的“多中心”显著性集聚特征;各类型诈骗热点的空间分布大同小异,多分布在城市的老城区、CBD、火（汽）车站、城中村或高校布局的周边地带;③ 各类诈骗犯罪的空间分布影响因素各异,但整体表现出与银行网点、旅游景点、道路密度、土地利用混合度、高校等建成环境因素高度相关;与购买商品房家庭占比、受教育水平、人口老龄化和城镇化水平等社会环境显著相关的特性。本文拓展了犯罪地理学领域对诈骗犯罪的研究成果,证实了各类诈骗犯罪符合日常活动理论的理论假设,对诈骗受害情景预防具有重要意义。     

Urban sprawl: neighbourhood dissatisfaction and urban preferences. Some evidence from Flanders

Early studies suggest that people living in rural neighbourhoods are more satisfied with their residential location than people living in cities. Consequently, most individuals seem to prefer low-density environments to reside in. More recent studies, however, state that rural residents are no more likely to be satisfied with their residential neighbourhood than their urban counterparts. In addition, a considerable, growing part of the population seems to have a clear preference for urban neighbourhoods. The results of our research, conducted in Flanders, Belgium, suggest that urbanites are more satisfied with their neighbourhood than rural residents are. Neighbourhood preferences differ less between urbanites and rural residents. However, there are differences indicating that urbanites have a preference for rural neighbourhoods and rural residents a preference for urban neighbourhoods. In sum, it seems that people, once they have selected their residential location, are not satisfied with the neighbourhood characteristics and tend to develop a preference for a different neighbourhood type. This mismatch can be partly explained by the strongly developed urban sprawl in Flanders, reducing the residential qualities of urban and especially rural environments. Restricting further urban sprawl, with the help of a more active spatial planning policy, seems necessary to increase neighbourhood satisfaction.     

盗窃犯罪易发地的构成、影响及其区域异质性：基于地理探测器方法

本文旨在识别盗窃犯罪易发地的主要类型、影响强度及其区域异质性特征,同时厘清地理探测器在犯罪地理研究中的适用性。利用北京中心城区的多源大数据,研究发现：① 在全域范围内,37类设施均属显著的盗窃易发地,道路边界、行政边界、用地边界也是盗窃高发的边缘地带,影响力突出的盗窃易发地更具备犯罪模式理论提及的犯罪引致条件。② 如社会解组理论所言,随着社会解组程度减弱,犯罪易发地的类型数量及其对盗窃分布的影响逐渐下降。除低解组区外,各类设施及边界的相对影响排序基本相同。③ 因未考虑混淆因素干扰,地理探测器容易高估解释变量的作用,与负二项回归结果的吻合度不高。而结合排除控制法,将混淆因素同质化的样本进行分区分析是规避外生变异和稳健运用地理探测器的可行路径。     

中国大城市低收入邻里及其居民的贫困集聚度和贫困决定因素

基于2007 年在中国6 个大城市开展的大规模家庭户调查,采用FGT指数法和逻辑回归分析方法,探讨中国大城市低收入邻里及其居民的贫困集聚程度和决定因素。研究发现,老城衰败邻里的贫困集聚度最高,同时承受多重不利状况的下岗/失业人员的贫困集聚度也是最高;事实贫困、被剥夺感与社会福利分配之间存在不匹配现象。在贫困的决定因素方面,制度保障和市场薪酬对城市贫困的发生具有同等重要的作用,但对不同低收入邻里和不同社会群体又表现出不同的关联性。随着市场作用的加强,市场薪酬机制正在成为贫困产生的更为重要的决定性因素。     

Fear,crime, and space: The case of Viçosa,Brazil

Crime is both a factual and perceptual component of the urban landscape, seemingly both a societal pathology and the consequence of economic disparity between social groups. Crime has a spatial structure that can be revealed by mapping. Urban crime has a spatial multiplier effect that changes the values and perceptions of how people see urban space, and which jeopardizes the quality of life of a city's inhabitants. In this research we examine the question of whether the geography of actual criminal acts is echoed by peoples' perceptions of crime, what might be termed their “spaces of fear”. We ask how the fear of crime is associated with reported urban crime. Urban crime incidents have been increasing in Viçosa, Minas Gerais, Brazil. We assembled crime information about Viçosa from two sources: first, crime as reported to the police and second, crime as perceived by city residents and measured by surveys and interviews. Reported criminal acts reveal a clustered geography, focusing particularly on the Downtown area, where there is a concentration of urban wealth and potential victims are more numerous. Offenses against property were focused on Downtown, while offenses against the person were located mostly in peripheral areas. The widespread feeling of insecurity in the city's neighborhoods, reflecting the fear of becoming a victim of violence and crime, was common throughout the city. Results confirmed the conclusion of past studies showing that the fear of violence and crime are not directly related to increasing numbers of criminal reports. Sites with higher incidence of crimes are not places with higher levels of fear. Rather than being geographically explainable “spaces of fear”, the spatial distribution of the fear of violence and crime appears to be unrelated in Viçosa, and neither is clustered or dispersed in any measurable way.     

犯罪热点时空分布研究方法综述

犯罪在地理时空内并不是均匀分布的,而是表现出明显的时空聚集特性,这种聚集性常用“犯罪热点”表述.基于对犯罪热点的理解,从犯罪热点时空分布模式、犯罪热点成因分析以及犯罪热点时空转移及预测等3 个方面总结了当前国内外犯罪热点时空分布相关研究方法的进展.最后,对该领域研究进行了总结与展望.总体上,国内相关研究较少,尚需进一步结合中国国情,提出适用方法.另外,也需要通过相关犯罪理论的深入研究以及其他领域研究方法的借鉴,实现犯罪热点时空分布研究方法的突破与创新.     

Beyond anecdotal evidence: Do subsidized housing developments increase neighborhood crime?

While planners and policymakers have advocated the need for project-based subsidized housing, they often face the challenge of strong community opposition due to the negative perceptions of subsidized housing and subsidized households, and the fear that these developments and residents would bring increased crime. This paper aims to extend beyond anecdotal evidence by examining the impact of a popular U.S. affordable housing program, the Low-Income Housing Tax Credit (LIHTC) program, on neighborhood crime rates. We estimate the levels and trends in neighborhood crime before and after LIHTC developments, based on crime incidents data from 2000 to 2009 in Austin, Texas, using the Adjusted Interrupted Time Series–Difference in Differences (AITS–DID) approach to clarify the causal direction of impacts of LIHTC developments. Results show that LIHTC subsidized housing tended to be developed in neighborhoods where crime was already prevalent, and contrary to popular perception, LIHTC developments have a mitigating impact on neighborhood crime. These results suggest that LIHTC developments may be an effective tool for revitalizing distressed neighborhoods by ameliorating the “broken windows” problem and reducing neighborhood crime.