Earthquake prediction: a critical review

Earthquake prediction research has been conducted for over 100 years with no obvious successes. Claims of breakthroughs have failed to withstand scrutiny. Extensive searches have failed to find reliable precursors. Theoretical work suggests that faulting is a non-linear process which is highly sensitive to unmeasurably fine details of the state of the Earth in a large volume, not just in the immediate vicinity of the hypocentre. Any small earthquake thus has some probability of cascading into a large event. Reliable issuing of alarms of imminent large earthquakes appears to be effectively impossible.     

The 1786 earthquake-triggered landslide dam and subsequent dam-break flood on the Dadu River, southwestern China — Reply

A short reply to discussion by Chanson.     

Effects of topography and crustal heterogeneities on the source estimation of LP event at Kilauea volcano

The main goal of this study is to improve the modelling of the source mechanism associated with the generation of long period (LP) signals in volcanic areas. Our intent is to evaluate the effects that detailed structural features of the volcanic models play in the generation of LP signal and the consequent retrieval of LP source characteristics. In particular, effects associated with the presence of topography and crustal heterogeneities are here studied in detail. We focus our study on a LP event observed at Kilauea volcano, Hawaii, in 2001 May. A detailed analysis of this event and its source modelling is accompanied by a set of synthetic tests, which aim to evaluate the effects of topography and the presence of low velocity shallow layers in the source region. The forward problem of Green's function generation is solved numerically following a pseudo-spectral approach, assuming different 3-D models. The inversion is done in the frequency domain and the resulting source mechanism is represented by the sum of two time-dependent terms: a full moment tensor and a single force. Synthetic tests show how characteristic velocity structures, associated with shallow sources, may be partially responsible for the generation of the observed long-lasting ringing waveforms. When applying the inversion technique to Kilauea LP data set, inversions carried out for different crustal models led to very similar source geometries, indicating a subhorizontal cracks. On the other hand, the source time function and its duration are significantly different for different models. These results support the indication of a strong influence of crustal layering on the generation of the LP signal, while the assumption of homogeneous velocity model may bring to misleading results.     

2003年2月24日巴楚—伽师6.8级地震的构造背景初探

2003年2月24日发生在新疆巴楚的6.8级地震造成268人死亡。地震发生在塔里木盆地的西北部，靠近南天山西段山区的边缘部分。简单来说，这次地震仍然是印度板块与欧亚大陆板块碰撞导致的结果，尽管板块碰撞的边界线还在远离震区的南面近千公里处。在过去的十年中，这次地震所在的伽师地区已经发生过一系列导致伤亡的地震，包括1996年3月19日的6．7级、1997年1月21日到4月16日发生的7个6级地震、1998年3月19日6．0级、8月2日6．1级和8月27日6．4级地震，共造成48人死亡，直接经济损失15亿元人民币。印度板块相对欧亚板块以每年45mm的速率持续向北运动，造成了包括喜马拉雅山在内的雄伟山峰，并导致了整个育藏高原的隆升，地壳应力通过刚性和不变形的塔里木盆地向北传递，形成了天山山系并引发了类似这次地震的许多地震。虽然我们目前还不能确定这次地震发生在那条断裂上，但是在这一带确有许多类似的断裂存在。     

Seismic radiation from dynamic coalescence, and the reconstruction of dynamic source parameters on a planar fault

The dynamic coalescence of two mode II cracks on a planar fault is simulated here using the elastodynamic boundary integral equation method. We focus on the complexity of the resultant slip rate and seismic radiation in the crack coalescence model (CCM) and on the reconstruction of a single crack model (SCM) that can reproduce the CCM waveforms from heterogeneous source parameters rather than coalescence. Simulation results reveal that localized higher slip rates are generated by coalescence as a result of stress interaction between the approaching crack tips. The synthesized seismic radiation exhibits a distinct coalescence phase that has striking similarities to stopping phases in the radiation and propagation properties. The corresponding SCM yields a singular increase in the stress drop distribution, which is accompanied by a sudden decrease in it across the point of coalescence in the CCM. This implies that the generation of high-frequency radiation is more efficient from coalescence than from stopping, although both phenomena exhibit the same strong  ω⁻²  -type displacement spectra.     

汶川地震灾后重建地区的人口容量分析

Assessment of population carrying capacity is a key task in the reconstruction planning of areas struck by disasters, in which the precision of estimation is required. This study developed a decision-making model for estimating the population capacity of the involved townships and cities in the 2008 Wenchuan Earthquake based on the assessment of the suitability for reconstruction of the areas. Through analysis, arable land resources were argued to be the critical constraint of population capacity in these areas. Then, the spatial differentiations of the post-quake development conditions across different regions were analyzed with respect to their natural environments, socio-economic development and quake damages. The expected levels of urbanization, family incomes and income structures, output levels of land, and the reliance of agricultural population on arable land were estimated by different regions. With these parameters, the population capacities of the involved townships and cities in three scenarios were estimated. The total population capacity of the entire areas is abundant compared with the actual post-quake population; however, the status of over-population substantially varies across space. It was suggested to put the emphasis of post-quake resettlement policy on those counties where earthquake had been the main causes of over-population. In the Full Recovery Scenario, three mountain counties were identified including Wenchuan, Beichuan and Maoxian, with a total over-population of about 100,000 people.     

地震灾害宏观分析研究*

运用对致灾因素及灾害发生机制的已有认识,根据50个历史的典型震例,建立地震烈度、人口密度、单位面积工农业产值等因素与反映灾害程度的人员伤亡、经济损失的估算模型;以减少灾害研究对历史资料的依赖.用两个历史震例检验模型,结果其精度满足宏观分析的要求.     

汶川地震灾后重建地区的人口容量分析

Assessment of population carrying capacity is a key task in the reconstruction planning of areas struck by disasters, in which the precision of estimation is required. This study developed a decision-making model for estimating the population capacity of the involved townships and cities in the 2008 Wenchuan Earthquake based on the assessment of the suitability for reconstruction of the areas. Through analysis, arable land resources were argued to be the critical constraint of population capacity in these areas. Then, the spatial differentiations of the post-quake development conditions across different regions were analyzed with respect to their natural environments, socio-economic development and quake damages. The expected levels of urbanization, family incomes and income structures, output levels of land, and the reliance of agricultural population on arable land were estimated by different regions. With these parameters, the population capacities of the involved townships and cities in three scenarios were estimated. The total population capacity of the entire areas is abundant compared with the actual post-quake population; however, the status of over-population substantially varies across space. It was suggested to put the emphasis of post-quake resettlement policy on those counties where earthquake had been the main causes of over-population. In the Full Recovery Scenario, three mountain counties were identified including Wenchuan, Beichuan and Maoxian, with a total over-population of about 100,000 people.     

On the use of satellite altimetry to infer the earthquake rupture characteristics: application to the 2004 Sumatra event

Standard data and methods, such as the inversion of seismic and GPS data, have been used extensively to infer the details of the 2004 December 26 earthquake. The unprecedented large size of this event gave the opportunity to modern altimeters to provide the first clear records of a tsunami in deep ocean, therefore allowing us to study the rupture history from an independent perspective. We invert the Jason-1 and Topex–Poseidon altimetry records, considering the new constraints available on the geometry of the fault plane, and taking them into account in a 3-D rupture model. The data are corrected for the non-negligible effect of satellite motion during measurements. Our results show that the rupture propagated over the 1500 km of subduction zone initially identified by the aftershock distribution, with a magnitude of   M _w= 9.1  . Our solution compares well with the latitudinal distribution of slip inferred from other data sets, with a maximum of energy release north of Sumatra, and two other slip patches near the Nicobar and Andaman islands. Based on waveform comparison, we assert that the shallow portion of the megathrust offshore Banda Aceh had slip amplitudes of more than 20 m. Also, we find that significant amounts of slip (about 10 m) concentrated below the Andaman islands and did not propagate on the shallow portion of the interface. Although synthetic tests tend to show less resolution in the northern part of the rupture, this solution is compatible with the near-field data (GPS, coral heads and imagery), and would allow one to explain the apparent paradox between the large local displacements and the moderate tsunami observed locally. Finally, we demonstrate the rapidly dominating effect of propagation and slip distribution over the rupture velocity, and how it precludes the direct estimate of this latter parameter.     

The 1786 earthquake-triggered landslide dam and subsequent dam-break flood on the Dadu River, southwestern China

Chinese historic documents recorded that on June 1, 1786, a strong M=7.75 earthquake occurred in the Kangding-Luding area, Sichuan, southwestern China, resulting in a large landslide that fell into the Dadu River. As a result, a landslide dam blocked the river. Ten days later, the sudden breaching of the dam resulted in catastrophic downstream flooding. Historic records document over 100,000 deaths by the flood. This may be the most disastrous event ever caused by landslide dam failures in the world. Although a lot of work has been carried out to determine the location, magnitude and intensity of the 1786 earthquake, relatively little is known about the occurrence and nature of the landslide dam. In this paper, the dam was reconstructed using historic documents and geomorphic evidence. It was found that the landslide dam was about 70 m high, and it created a lake with a water volume of about 50×10⁶ m³ and an area of about 1.7 km². The landslide dam breached suddenly due to a major aftershock on June 10, 1786. The peak discharge at the dam breach was estimated using regression equations and a physically based predictive equation. The possibility of a future failure of the landslide seems high, particularly due to inherent seismic risk, and detailed geotechnical investigations are strongly recommended for evaluating the current stability of the landslide.     

A Neogene giant landslide in Tarapacá, northern Chile: A signal of instability of the westernmost Altiplano and palaeoseismicity effects

Giant landslides, which usually have volumes up to several tens of km³, tend to be related to mountainous reliefs such as fault scarps or thrust fronts. The western flank of the Precordillera in southern Peru and northern Chile is characterized by the presence of such mega-landslides. A good example is the Latagualla Landslide (19°15′S), composed of ~ 5.4 km³ of Miocene ignimbritic rock blocks located next to the Moquella Flexure, a structure resulting from the propagation of a west-vergent thrust blind fault that borders the Precordillera of the Central Depression. The landslide mass is very well preserved, allowing reconstitution of its movement and evolution in three main stages. The geomorphology of the landslide indicates that it preceded the incision of the present-day valleys during the late Miocene. Given the local geomorphological conditions 8–9 Ma ago (morphology, slopes and probably a high water table), large-magnitude earthquakes could have provided destabilization forces enough to cause the landslide. On the other hand, present seismic forces would not be sufficient to trigger such landslides; therefore the hazard related to them in the region is low.     

Imaging an asperity of the 2003 Tokachi-oki earthquake using a dense strong-motion seismograph network

The 2003 Tokachi-oki earthquake ruptured a large area of approximately 100 km². The location of the largest asperity was estimated to be several dozen kilometres offshore of Hokkaido, Japan. The magnitude measured 8.0 on the Japan Meteorological Agency scale, and several studies used waveform inversion analysis to estimate the moment-magnitude as M _w 8.0–8.2. Several studies reported that there was a minor asperity at the northeastern edge of the fault plane, and that the rupture velocity towards the minor asperity was less than that towards the main asperity. One of them illustrated that the location and timing of the minor asperity were poorly constrained. In this paper, we introduce a procedure based on semblance analysis to image the location of the minor northeastern asperity with improved resolution. We group 15 strong-motion seismographs into three arrays, and we perform semblance analysis on impulsive waves that were possibly generated from the minor asperity and were conspicuously observed at stations in eastern Hokkaido. By projecting the semblance values onto the fault plane, we estimate the location of the minor asperity. We find it to be shallower and farther from the coast than the previous results indicated. The average rupture velocity towards the asperity is estimated to be 2.5 km s⁻¹, which is slower than the 3.6 km s⁻¹ obtained by waveform inversion analysis.     

GIS-based landslide susceptibility mapping for the 2005 Kashmir earthquake region

The M_w 7.6 October 8, 2005 Kashmir earthquake triggered several thousand landslides throughout the Himalaya of northern Pakistan and India. These were concentrated in six different geomorphic–geologic–anthropogenic settings. A spatial database, which included 2252 landslides, was developed and analyzed using ASTER satellite imagery and geographical information system (GIS) technology. A multi-criterion evaluation was applied to determine the significance of event-controlling parameters in triggering the landslides. The parameters included lithology, faults, slope gradient, slope aspect, elevation, land cover, rivers and roads. The results showed four classes of landslide susceptibility. Furthermore, they indicated that lithology had the strongest influence on landsliding, particularly when the rock is highly fractured, such as in shale, slate, clastic sediments, and limestone and dolomite. Moreover, the proximity of the landslides to faults, rivers, and roads was also an important factor in helping to initiate failures. In addition, landslides occurred particularly in moderate elevations on south facing slopes. Shrub land, grassland, and also agricultural land were highly susceptible to failures, while forested slopes had few landslides. One-third of the study area was highly or very highly susceptible to future landsliding and requires immediate mitigation action. The rest of the region had a low or moderate susceptibility to landsliding and remains relatively stable. This study supports the view that (1) earthquake-triggered landslides are concentrated in specific zones associated with event-controlling parameters; and (2) in the western Himalaya deforestation and road construction contributed significantly to landsliding during and shortly after earthquakes.     

Core-log integration studies in hole-A of Taiwan Chelungpu-fault Drilling Project

Taiwan Chelungpu-fault Drilling Project (TCDP) was initiated to understand the physical mechanisms involved in the large displacements of the 1999 Taiwan Chi-Chi earthquake. Continuous measurements of cores (including laboratory work) and a suite of geophysical downhole logs, including P - and S -wave sonic velocity, gamma ray, electrical resistivity, density, temperature, electrical borehole images and dipole-shear sonic imager, were acquired in Hole-A over the depth of 500–2003 m. Integrated studies of cores and logs facilitate qualitative and quantitative comparison of subsurface structures and physical properties of rocks. A total of 10 subunits were divided on the basis of geophysical characteristics. Generally, formation velocity and temperature increase with depth as a result of the overburden and thermal gradient, respectively. Gamma ray, resistivity, formation density, shear velocity anisotropy and density-derived porosity are primarily dependent on the lithology. Zones with changes of percentage of shear wave anisotropy and the fast shear polarization azimuth deduced from Dipole Shear-Imager (DSI) are associated with the appearance of fractures, steep bedding and shear zones. The fast shear wave azimuth is in good agreement with overall dip of the bedding (approximately 30° towards SE) and maximum horizontal compressional direction, particularly in the Kueichulin Formation showing strong shear wave velocity anisotropy. Bedding-parallel fractures are prevalent within cores, whereas minor sets of high-angle, NNW–SSE trending with N- and S-dipping fractures are sporadically distributed. The fault zone at depth 1111 m (FZA1111) is the Chi-Chi earthquake slip zone and could be a fluid conduit after the earthquake. The drastic change in fast shear wave polarization direction across the underlying, non-active Sanyi thrust at depth 1710 m reflects changes in stratigraphy, physical properties and structural geometry.     

An analytical approach for the scattering of SH waves by a symmetrical V-shaped canyon: shallow case

Based on the application of the region-matching technique, an analytical approach is presented for the scattering of plane SH waves from a shallow symmetrical V-shaped canyon, and then a series solution is derived. The analysed region is divided into an enclosed and an open region by introducing a semi-circular auxiliary boundary. In each region, the displacement field can be expressed as infinite sum of appropriate wavefunctions satisfying partial boundary conditions, respectively. The unknown coefficients can be determined by enforcing the continuity conditions in connection with the Graf's addition formula. The frequency- and time-domain responses are both evaluated and displayed for several physical parameters. From graphical results, the effects of the canyon depth on surface ground motion are conspicuous. The proposed series solutions can serve as benchmark for numerical methods, in particular for those at much higher frequencies.