New insight into the factors leading to the 1998 flank collapse and lahar disaster at Casita volcano,Nicaragua

During unusually high rainfall associated with Hurricane Mitch in 1998, a flank collapse leading to a disastrous lahar occurred at Casita volcano, Nicaragua. The lack of a similar failure during a rainfall event of comparable magnitude in 1982 (Tropical Storm Alleta) suggests that additional factors influenced the 1998 collapse. We have investigated the potential contribution of erosional flank undercutting, seismic activity and anthropogenic land-cover change at the collapse site. Except for seismic events prior to Mitch, which may have increased flank instability, none of these factors appears significant. Instead, for failure to occur, the following conditions were required: (1) highly fractured slope material allowing deep and rapid infiltration of meteoric water, (2) a less permeable underlying layer to obstruct drainage, (3) strong, continuous antecedent rainfall to build up high pore-water pressure, and (4) episodic, high-intensity precipitation during Mitch to generate recurrent pressure waves. Prerequisite (1) was provided by edifice-wide deformation towards the south-east, seismic activity and proximity to a prominent fault, and local subsidence. Condition (2) was met by clay-rich layers resulting from hydrothermal alteration. More than 1,900 mm of rain fell in the 6 months prior to Mitch without significant interruption, while intense episodic precipitation occurred during the hurricane, satisfying conditions (3) and (4), respectively. The main difference with Alleta was that it occurred at the beginning of the rainy season and, therefore, without sufficient antecedent rainfall. Anthropogenic activity, including land-cover change, did not affect slope stability (i.e. the hazard). However, vulnerability was generated when two towns were established in the lowlands south of Casita, on top of previous lahar deposits. It was greatly increased when approximately 4 km of forest between the collapse site and the towns were cleared, paving the way for a largely unobstructed debris flow. Deforestation also facilitated erosion along the flanks to provide about 78% of the material contained in the lahar when it destroyed the towns, killing more than 2,500 people.     

Controls on accumulation of a volcaniclastic fan,Ruapehu composite volcano,New Zealand

The Whangaehu fan is the youngest sedimentary component on the eastern ring plain surrounding Ruapehu volcano. Fan history comprises constructional (830–200 years bp) and dissectional (<200 years bp) phases. The constructional phase includes four aggradational periods associated with both syneruptive and inter-eruptive behavior. All four aggradational periods began when deposition by large lahars changed flow conditions on the fan from channelized to unchannelized. Subsequent behavior was a function of the rate of sediment influx to the fan. The rate of sediment influx, in turn, was controlled by frequency and magnitude of volcanic eruptions, short-term climate change, and the amount of sediment stored on the volcano flanks. Fanwide aggradation occurred when rates of sediment influx and deposition on the fan were high enough to maintaìn unchannelized flow conditions on the fan surface. Maintenance of an undissected surface required sedimentation from frequent and large lahars that prevented major dissection between events. These conditions were best met during major eruptive episodes when high frequency and magnitude eruptions blanketed the volcano flanks with tephra and rates of lahar initiation were high. During major eruptive episodes, volcanism is the primary control on sedimentation. Climatic variations do not influence sediment accumulation. Local aggradation occurred when lahars were too small to maintain unchannelized flow across the entire fan. In this case, only the major channel system received much sediment following the deposition from the initial lahar. This localized aggradation occurred if (1) the sediment reservoir on the flank was large enough for floods to bulk into debris flows and (2) sedimentation events were frequent enough to maintain sediment supply to only some parts of the fan. These conditions were met during both minor eruptive and inter-eruptive episodes. In both cases, a large sediment reservoir remained on the volcano flanks from previous major eruptive intervals. Periods of increased storm activity produced floods that bulked to relatively small debris flows. When the sediment reservoir was depleted, the fan entered the present dissectional phase. Syneruptive and noneruptive lahars are mostly channelized and sediment bypasses the fan. Fan deposits are rapidly reworked. This is the present case at Ruapehu, even though the volcano is in a minor eruptive episode and the climate favors generation of intense storm floods.     

Hydraulic,physical and rheological characteristics of rain‐triggered lahars at Semeru volcano,Indonesia

Lahars (volcanic debris flows) have been responsible for 40% of all volcanic fatalities over the past century. Mount Semeru (East Java, Indonesia) is a persistently active composite volcano that threatens approximately one million people with its lahars and pyroclastic flows. Despite their regularity, the behaviour and the propagation of these rain‐triggered lahars are poorly understood. In situ samples were taken from lahars in motion at two sites in the Curah Lengkong River, on the southeast flank of Semeru, providing estimates of the particle concentration, grain size spectrum, grain density and composition. This enables us to identify flow sediment from three categories of lahars: (a) hyperconcentrated flow, (b) non‐cohesive, clast‐ and matrix‐supported debris flow, and (c) muddy flood. To understand hyperconcentrated flow sediment transport processes, it is more appropriate to sample the active flows than the post‐event lahar deposits because in situ sampling retains the full spectrum of the grain‐size distribution. Rheometrical tests on materials sampled from moving hyperconcentrated flows were carried out using a laboratory vane rheometer. Despite technical difficulties, results obtained on the <63, <180, and <400 µm fractions of the sampled sediment, suggest a purely frictional behaviour. Importantly, and contrary to previous experiments conducted with monodisperse suspensions, our results do not show any transition towards a viscous behaviour for high shear rates. These data provide important constraints for future physical and numerical modelling of lahar flows. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Rate of sediment yield following small‐scale volcanic eruptions: a quantitative assessment at the Merapi and Semeru stratovolcanoes,Java, Indonesia

Sediment yields were calculated on the ?anks of Merapi and Semeru volcanoes in Java, Indonesia, using two different methods. During the ?rst year following the 22 November 1994 eruption of Merapi, a sediment yield in excess of 1·5 × 10⁵ m³ km^?2 yr^?1 was calculated in the Boyong River drainage basin, based on the volumes of sediment that were trapped by ?ve check dams. At Semeru, sediment discharges were assessed in the Curah Lengkong River from direct measurements on the lahars in motion and on the most signi?cant stream?ows. The calculated rate of sediment yield during one year of data in 2000 was 2·7 × 10⁵ m³ km^?2 yr^?1. Sediment yields are dominated by rain‐triggered lahars, which occur every rainy season in several drainage basins of Merapi and Semeru volcanoes, mostly during the rainy season extending from October to April. The return period of lahars carrying sediment in excess of 5 × 10⁵ m³ is about one year in the Curah Lengkong River at Semeru. At Merapi, the volume of sediments transported by a lahar did not exceed 2·8 × 10⁵ m³ in the Boyong River during the rainy season 1994–95. On both volcanoes, the sediments are derived from similar sources: pyroclastic‐?ow/surges deposits, rockfalls from the lava domes, and old material from the riverbed and banks. However, daily explosions of vulcanian type at Semeru provide a more continuous sediment supply than at Merapi. Therefore, sediment yields are larger at Semeru. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Ice-melt collapse pits and associated features in the 1991 lahar deposits of Volcán Hudson,Chile: criteria to distinguish eruption-induced glacier melt

In subaerial volcaniclastic sequences structures formed by ice blocks can provide information about a volcano's history of lahar generation by glacier melt. At Volcán Hudson in Chile, catastrophic lahars were initiated by eruption-induced melting of glacier ice in August and October 1991. They transported large ice blocks 50 km down the Rio de los Huemules valley to the sea. Large current crescents with lee-side lenses were formed where ice blocks were deposited during waning stages of the flood. When stranded blocks of ice melted, they left cone-shaped and ring-shaped heaps of ice-rafted debris on the sediment surface. Several hundred ice blocks were completely buried within the aggrading lahar sediment, and when these melted circular collapse pits formed in the sediment. Collapse types included subsided coherent blocks of sediment bounded by an outward-dipping ring-fracture, trapdoor structures with horseshoe-shaped fractures, downsag pits with centroclinal dips locally up to 60°, pits with peripheral graben and crevasses, piecemeal (highly fragmented) collapse structures and funnel-shaped pits containing disaggregated sediment. A sequence of progressive collapse is inferred in which initial downsag and subsidence on an outward-dipping ring fracture produces a small diameter pit. This is followed by widening of the pit by progressive development of concentric ring fractures and downsag outside the early formed pit, and by collapse of overhanging pit walls to produce vertical to inward-dipping walls and aprons of collapse debris on the pit floor. The various structures have potential for preservation even in regions prone to high rainfall and flooding, and they can be used to indicate that former lahars contained abundant blocks of ice.     

Modelling future lahars controlled by different volcanic eruption scenarios at Cotopaxi (Ecuador) calibrated with the massively destructive 1877 lahar

Lahars are among the most hazardous mass flow processes on earth and have caused up to 23 000 casualties in single events in the recent past. The Cotopaxi volcano, 60 km southeast of Quito, has a well-documented history of massively destructive lahars and is a hotspot for future lahars due to (i) its ~10 km² glacier cap, (ii) its 117–147-year return period of (Sub)-Plinian eruptions, and (iii) the densely populated potential inundation zones (300 000 inhabitants). Previous mechanical lahar models often do not (i) capture the steep initial lahar trajectory, (ii) reproduce multiple flow paths including bifurcation and confluence, and (iii) generate appropriate key parameters like flow speed and pressure at the base as a measure of erosion capacity. Here, we back-calculate the well-documented 1877 lahar using the RAMMS debris flow model with an implemented entrainment algorithm, covering the entire lahar path from the volcano edifice to an extent of ~70 km from the source. To evaluate the sensitivity and to constrain the model input range, we systematically explore input parameter values, especially the Voellmy–Salm friction coefficients μ and ξ. Objective selection of the most likely parameter combinations enables a realistic and robust lahar hazard representation. Detailed historic records for flow height, flow velocity, peak discharge, travel time and inundation limits match best with a very low Coulomb-type friction μ (0.0025–0.005) and a high turbulent friction ξ (1000–1400 m/s²). Finally, we apply the calibrated model to future eruption scenarios (Volcanic Explosivity Index = 2–3, 3–4, >4) at Cotopaxi and accordingly scaled lahars. For the first time, we anticipate a potential volume growth of 50–400% due to lahar erosivity on steep volcano flanks. Here we develop a generic Voellmy–Salm approach across different scales of high-magnitude lahars and show how it can be used to anticipate future syneruptive lahars.     

Rainfall-triggered lahars at Volcán de Colima,Mexico: Surface hydro-repellency as initiation process

Volcán de Colima is currently the most active volcano in Mexico. Since 1998 intermittent activity has been observed with vulcanian eruptions, lava flows and growing domes that have collapsed producing several block-and-ash flow deposits. During the period of heightened activity since 1998 at Volcán de Colima, pyroclastic flows from dome or column collapse have not reached long distances, most of the time less than 6 km from the crater. In contrast, rain-induced lahars were more frequent and have reached relatively long distances, up to 15 km, causing damage to infrastructure and affecting small villages. In 2007 two rain gauge stations were installed on the southern flank of the volcano registering events from June through to October, the period when rains are intense and lahars frequent. By comparing lahar frequency with rainfall intensity and the rainfall accumulated during the previous 3 days, lahars more frequently occur at the beginning of the rainfall season, with low rain accumulation (< 10 mm) and triggered by low rain intensities (< 20 mm/h). During the months with more rainfall (July and August) lahars are less frequent and higher peak intensities (up to 70 mm/h) are needed to trigger an event. In both cases, lahars were initiated as dilute, sediment-laden streamflows, which transformed with entrainment of additional sediment into hyperconcentrated and debris flows, with alternations between these two flow types. A hydro-repellency mechanism in highly vegetated areas (i.e. evergreen tree types with considerable amount of resins and waxes such as pines) with sandy soils can probably explain the high frequency of lahars at the beginning of the rain season during low rainfall events. Under hydrophobic conditions, infiltration is inhibited and runoff is facilitated at more highly peaked discharges that are more likely to initiate lahars.     

Lahars at Merapi volcano, Central Java: an overview

Merapi volcano, in Central Java, is one of the most active volcanoes in the world. At least 23 of the 61 reported eruptions since the mid-1500s have produced source deposits for lahars. The combined lahar deposits cover about 286 km² on the flanks and the surrounding piedmonts of the volcano. At Merapi, lahars are commonly rain-triggered by rainfalls having an average intensity of about 40 mm in 2 h. Most occur during the rainy season from November to April, and have average velocities of 5–7 m/s at 1000 m in elevation. A wide range of facies may be generated from a single flow, which may transform downvalley from debris flow to hyperconcentrated streamflow.Because of the high frequency and magnitude of the lahar events, lahar-related hazards are high below about 450–600 m elevation in each of the 13 rivers which drain the volcano. Hazard-zone maps for lahar were produced by Pardyanto et al. (Volcanic hazard map, Merapi volcano, Central Java (1/100,000). Geol. Surv. of Indonesia, Bandung, II, 4, 1978) and the Japanese–Indonesian Cooperation Agency (Master plan for land conservation and volcanic debris control in the area of Mt Merapi, Jakarta, 1980), but these maps are of a very small scale to meet modern zoning requirements. More recently, a few large-scale maps (1/10,000- and 1/2000-scale) and risk assessments have been completed for a few critical river systems.     

Volume estimation of the 1998 flank collapse at Casita volcano,Nicaragua: a comparison of photogrammetric and conventional techniques

In October 1998 a precipitation‐triggered flank collapse occurred at Casita volcano, Nicaragua, leading to a devastating lahar. In this paper the failure volume was calculated using a range of methods. Several pre‐ and post‐failure digital elevation models (DEMs) were created, based on photogrammetric, cartometric and surveying data. The wide range in resulting volumes prompted an assessment of the accuracies and potential problems associated with each of the datasets and techniques used. The best estimate for the failure volume is 1·6 × 10⁶ m³. It is based on a vegetation‐corrected pre‐failure DEM, generated using automated digital photogrammetry, and a post‐failure surface based on a field survey carried out with a Total Station. The volume figure is approximately an order of magnitude higher than values reported in previous publications, all of which are based solely on field estimates. This demonstrates that values reported in the literature, if they are not based on rigorous quantitative analysis, must be regarded with caution. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The May 1915 eruptions of Lassen Peak, II: May 22 volcanic blast effects, sedimentology and stratigraphy of deposits, and characteristics of the blast cloud

The May 22, 1915 eruptions of Lassen Peak involved a volcanic blast and the emplacement of three geographically and temporally distinct lahar deposits. The volcanic blast occurred when a Vulcanian explosion at the summit unroofed a shallow magma source, generating an eruption cloud that rose to an estimated height of 9 km above sea level. The blast cloud was probably caused by the collapse of a small portion of the eruption column; absence of a flank vent associated with these eruptions argues against it originating as an explosion that has been directed by vent geometry or location. The volcanic blast devasted 7 km² of the northeast flank of the volcano, and emplaced a deposit of juvenile tephra and accidental lithic and mineral fragments. Decrease in blast deposit thickness and median grain size with increasing distance from the vent suggests that the blast cloud lost transport competence as it crossed the devastated area. Scanning electron microscope examination of pyroclasts from the blast deposit indicates that the blast cloud was a dry, turbulent suspension that emplaced a thin deposit which cooled rapidly after deposition. Lahar deposits were emplaced primarily in Lost Creek, with minor lahars flowing down gullies on the west, northwest and north flanks of the volcano. The initial lahar was apparently triggered early in the eruption when the blast cloud melted the residual snowpack as it moved down the northeast flank of the peak. The event that triggered the later lahars is enigmatic; the presence of approximately five times more juvenile dacite bombs on the surface of the later lahars suggests that they may have been triggered by a change in eruption style or dynamics.     

Stratigraphic framework of Holocene volcaniclastic deposits, Akutan Volcano, east-central Aleutian Islands, Alaska

 Akutan Volcano is one of the most active volcanoes in the Aleutian arc, but until recently little was known about its history and eruptive character. Following a brief but sustained period of intense seismic activity in March 1996, the Alaska Volcano Observatory began investigating the geology of the volcano and evaluating potential volcanic hazards that could affect residents of Akutan Island. During these studies new information was obtained about the Holocene eruptive history of the volcano on the basis of stratigraphic studies of volcaniclastic deposits and radiocarbon dating of associated buried soils and peat. A black, scoria-bearing, lapilli tephra, informally named the "Akutan tephra," is up to 2 m thick and is found over most of the island, primarily east of the volcano summit. Six radiocarbon ages on the humic fraction of soil A-horizons beneath the tephra indicate that the Akutan tephra was erupted approximately 1611 years B.P. At several locations the Akutan tephra is within a conformable stratigraphic sequence of pyroclastic-flow and lahar deposits that are all part of the same eruptive sequence. The thickness, widespread distribution, and conformable stratigraphic association with overlying pyroclastic-flow and lahar deposits indicate that the Akutan tephra likely records a major eruption of Akutan Volcano that may have formed the present summit caldera. Noncohesive lahar and pyroclastic-flow deposits that predate the Akutan tephra occur in the major valleys that head on the volcano and are evidence for six to eight earlier Holocene eruptions. These eruptions were strombolian to subplinian events that generated limited amounts of tephra and small pyroclastic flows that extended only a few kilometers from the vent. The pyroclastic flows melted snow and ice on the volcano flanks and formed lahars that traveled several kilometers down broad, formerly glaciated valleys, reaching the coast as thin, watery, hyperconcentrated flows or water floods. Slightly cohesive lahars in Hot Springs valley and Long valley could have formed from minor flank collapses of hydrothermally altered volcanic bedrock. These lahars may be unrelated to eruptive activity. Received: 31 August 1998 / Accepted: 30 January 1999     

Tungurahua Volcano,Ecuador: structure,eruptive history and hazards

Tungurahua, one of Ecuador's most active volcanoes, is made up of three volcanic edifices. Tungurahua I was a 14-km-wide andesitic stratocone which experienced at least one sector collapse followed by the extrusion of a dacite lava series. Tungurahua II, mainly composed of acid andesite lava flows younger than 14,000 years BP, was partly destroyed by the last collapse event, 2955±90 years ago, which left a large amphitheater and produced a ∼8-km³ debris deposit. The avalanche collided with the high ridge immediately to the west of the cone and was diverted to the northwest and southwest for ∼15 km. A large lahar formed during this event, which was followed in turn by dacite extrusion. Southwestward, the damming of the Chambo valley by the avalanche deposit resulted in a ∼10-km-long lake, which was subsequently breached, generating another catastrophic debris flow. The eruptive activity of the present volcano (Tungurahua III) has rebuilt the cone to about 50% of its pre-collapse size by the emission of ∼3 km³ of volcanic products. Two periods of construction are recognized in Tungurahua's III history. From ∼2300 to ∼1400 years BP, high rates of lava extrusion and pyroclastic flows occurred. During this period, the magma composition did not evolve significantly, remaining essentially basic andesite. During the last ∼1300 years, eruptive episodes take place roughly once per century and generally begin with lapilli fall and pyroclastic flow activity of varied composition (andesite+dacite), and end with more basic andesite lava flows or crater plugs. This pattern is observed in the three historic eruptions of 1773, 1886 and 1916–1918. Given good age control and volumetric considerations, Tungurahua III growth's rate is estimated at ∼1.5×10⁶ m³/year over the last 2300 years. Although an infrequent event, a sector collapse and associated lahars constitute a strong hazard of this volcano. Given the ∼3000 m relief and steep slopes of the present cone, a future collapse, even of small volume, could cover an area similar to that affected by the ∼3000-year-old avalanche. The more frequent eruptive episodes of each century, characterized by pyroclastic flows, lavas, lahars, as well as tephra falls, directly threaten 25,000 people and the Agoyan hydroelectric dam located at the foot of the volcano.     

Volcanic hazard assessment for Ruapehu composite volcano,taupo volcanic zone,New Zealand

Ruapehu is a very active andesitic composite volcano which has erupted five times in the past 10 years. Historical events have included phreatomagmatic eruptions through a hot crater lake and two dome-building episodes. Ski-field facilities, road and rail bridges, alpine huts and portions of a major hydroelectrical power scheme have been damaged or destroyed by these eruptions. Destruction of a rail bridge by a lahar in 1953 caused the loss of 151 lives. Other potential hazards, with Holocene analogues, include Strombolian and sub-Plinian explosive eruptions, lava extrusion from summit or flank vents and collapse of portions of the volcano. The greatest hazards would result from renewed phreatomagmatic activity in Crater Lake or collapse of its weak southeastern wall. Three types of hazard zones can be defined for the phreatomagmatic events: inner zones of extreme risk from ballistic blocks and surges, outer zones of disruption to services from fall deposits and zones of risk from lahars, which consist of tongues down major river valleys. Ruapehu is prone to destructive lahars because of the presence of 10⁷ m³ of hot acid water in Crater Lake and because of the surrounding summit glaciers and ice fields. The greatest risks at Ruapehu are to thousands of skiers on the ski field which crosses a northern lahar path. Three early warning schemes have been established to deal with the lahar problems. Collapse of the southeastern confining wall would release much of the lake into an eastern lahar path causing widespread damage. This is a long-term risk which could only be mitigated by drainage of the lake.     

Toward a revised hazard assessment at Merapi volcano, Central Java

Of 1.1 million people living on the flanks of the active Merapi volcano, 440,000 are at relatively high risk in areas prone to pyroclastic flows, surges, and lahars. For the last two centuries, the activity of Merapi has alternated regularly between long periods of viscous lava dome extrusion, and brief explosive episodes at 8–15 year intervals, which generated dome-collapse pyroclastic flows and destroyed part of the pre-existing domes. Violent explosive episodes on an average recurrence of 26–54 years have generated pyroclastic flows, surges, tephra-falls, and subsequent lahars. The 61 reported eruptions since the mid-1500s killed about 7000 people. The current hazard-zone map of Merapi (Pardyanto et al., 1978) portrays three areas, termed ‘forbidden zone’, ‘first danger zone’ and ‘second danger zone’, based on successively declining hazards. Revision of the hazard map is desirable, because it lacks details necessary to outline hazard zones with accuracy, in particular the valleys likely to be swept by lahars, and excludes some areas likely to be devastated by pyroclastic gravity-currents such as the 22 November 1994 surge. In addition, risk maps should be developed to incorporate social, technical, and economic factors of vulnerability.Eruptive hazard assessment at Merapi is based on reconstructed eruptive history, on eruptive behavior and scenarios, and on existing models and preliminary numerical modeling. Firstly, the reconstructed eruptive activity, in particular for the past 7000 years and from historical accounts of eruptions, helps to define the extent and recurrence frequency of the most hazardous phenomena (Newhall et al., 2000; Camus et al., 2000). Pyroclastic flows traveled as far as 9–15 km from the source, pyroclastic surges swept the flanks as far as 9–20 km away from the vent, thick tephra fall buried temples in the vicinity of Yogyakarta 25 km to the south, and subsequent lahars spilled down the radial valleys as far as 30 km to the west and south. At least one large edifice collapse has occurred in the past 7000 years (Newhall et al., 2000; Camus et al., 2000). Secondly, four eruption scenarios are portrayed as hazardous zones on two maps and derived from the past eruptive behavior of Merapi and from the most affected areas in the past. Thirdly, simple numerical simulation, based on a Digital Elevation Model, a stereo-pair of SPOT satellite images, and one 2D-orthoimage helps to simulate pyroclastic and lahar flowage on the flanks and in radial valley channels, and to outline areas likely to be devastated.Three major threats are identified: (1) a collapse of the summit dome in the short-to mid-term, that can release large-volume pyroclastic flows and high-energy surges towards the south–southwest sector of the volcano; (2) an explosive eruption, much larger than any since 1930, may sweep all the flanks of Merapi at least once every century; (3) a potential collapse of the summit area, involving the fumarolic field of Gendol and part of the southern flank, which can contribute to moderate-scale debris avalanches and debris flows.     

Challenges of modeling current very large lahars at Nevado del Huila Volcano,Colombia

Nevado del Huila, a glacier-covered volcano in the South of Colombia’s Cordillera Central, had not experienced any historical eruptions before 2007. In 2007 and 2008, the volcano erupted with phreatic and phreatomagmatic events which produced lahars with flow volumes of up to about 300 million m³ causing severe damage to infrastructure and loss of lives. The magnitude of these lahars and the prevailing potential for similar or even larger events, poses significant hazards to local people and makes appropriate modeling a real challenge. In this study, we analyze the recent lahars to better understand the main processes and then model possible scenarios for future events. We used lahar inundation depths, travel duration, and flow deposits to constrain the dimensions of the 2007 event and applied LAHARZ and FLO-2D for lahar modeling. Measured hydrographs, geophone seismic sensor data and calculated peak discharges served as input data for the reconstruction of flow hydrographs and for calibration of the models. For model validation, results were compared with field data collected along the Páez and Simbola Rivers. Based on the results of the 2007 lahar simulation, we modeled lahar scenarios with volumes between 300 million and 1 billion m³. The approach presented here represents a feasible solution for modeling high-magnitude flows like lahars and allows an assessment of potential future events and related consequences for population centers downstream of Nevado del Huila.     

Sulfur as a binding agent of aggregates in explosive eruptions

The 2013 eruption of Pavlof Volcano, Alaska began on 13 May and ended 49 days later on 1 July. The eruption was characterized by persistent lava fountaining from a vent just north of the summit, intermittent strombolian explosions, and ash, gas, and aerosol plumes that reached as high as 8 km above sea level and on several occasions extended as much as 500 km downwind of the volcano. During the first several days of the eruption, accumulations of spatter near the vent periodically collapsed to form small pyroclastic avalanches that eroded and melted snow and ice to form lahars on the lower north flank of the volcano. Continued lava fountaining led to the production of clastogenic lava flows that extended to the base of the volcano, about 3–4 km beyond the vent. The generation of fountain-fed lava flows was a dominant process during the 2013 eruption; however, episodic collapse of spatter accumulations and formation of hot spatter-rich granular avalanches was a more efficient process for melting snow and ice and initiating lahars. The lahars and ash plumes generated during the eruption did not pose any serious hazards for the area. However, numerous local airline flights were cancelled or rerouted, and trace amounts of ash fall occurred at all of the local communities surrounding the volcano, including Cold Bay, Nelson Lagoon, Sand Point, and King Cove.     

The 2005 eruption of Ilamatepec (Santa Ana) volcano,El Salvador

We report the stratigraphic sequence of the 2005 eruption of Ilamatepec volcano together with sedimentological and chemical analyses of its products.Structural and textural characteristics of the deposits indicate that the eruption was driven by a small-volume rhyolitic intrusion at shallow levels, which resulted first in the collapse of the existing hydrothermally altered fan of previous deposits inside the crater lake, driving phreatic explosions with launching of blocks on ballistic trajectories; later the magma interacted with lake waters producing several hydromagmatic pyroclastic density currents (PDCs). These flows were energetic enough to knock down pine trees up to distances of 1.8 km from the crater in the E-NE sector of the volcano. Finally, ejection of ballistic blocks that landed on previously emplaced, wet pyroclastic density current deposits, caused the generation of a lahar that flowed down the steep eastern flank toward the El Jabillal gully. Subsequent lahars occurred as a result of intense rain caused by hurricane Stan.Radiocarbon ages on paleosols and charcoal fragments, separating previous volcanogenic sequences, indicate that similar eruptions have occurred more frequently in the past centuries, than previously thought.The new data confirms that Ilamatepec volcano is one of the most active volcanoes in El Salvador. Nevertheless, more detailed studies of the eruptive sequence of Ilamatepec volcano are mandatory to establish future eruptive patterns.     

Analysing the relation between rainfall characteristics and lahar activity at Mount Pinatubo,Philippines

The eruption of Mount Pinatubo in June 1991 altered the conditions of the surrounding river catchments. Pyroclastic flows and tephra fall were deposited over extensive areas, stripping off the forest cover and burying drainage divides. These recent deposits are very loosely consolidated and generally consist of sand‐sized particles, which commonly mobilize into lahars in response to rainfall of a certain magnitude. Several devastating lahar occurrences have buried settlements covering tens to several hundred square kilometres in a single event. Correlation of storm rainfall intensities and durations with lahar activity as recorded by acoustic flow monitors is used to investigate trends in the initiation conditions for lahar activity. This research confirms that the relationships of rainfall intensity and duration with lahar initiation threshold values are not linear but rather approximate a power relation. Different relations were found for lahar initiation in different years, from 1991 to 1997, as a result of the dynamic changes in hydrologic and geomorphic conditions of the affected catchments. Data from acoustic flow monitors are used to distinguish debris flow and hyperconcentrated flow activity from that of muddy water. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The coalescence and organization of lahars at Semeru volcano, Indonesia

We present multi-parameter geophysical measurements of rainfall-induced lahars at Semeru Volcano, East Java, using two observation sites 510 m apart, 11.5 km from the summit. Our study site in the Curah Lengkong channel is composed of a 30-m wide box-valley, with a base of gravel and lava bedrock, representing an ideal geometry for high density measurements of active lahars. Instrumentation included pore-pressure sensors (stage), a broad-band seismograph (arrival times, vibrational energy, and turbulence), video footage, and direct bucket sampling. A total of 8 rainfall-induced lahars were recorded, with durations of 1–3 h, heights 0.5–2 m, and peak velocities 3–6 m/s. Flow types ranged from dilute to dense hyperconcentrated flows. These recorded flows were commonly composed of partly coalesced, discrete and unsteady gravity current packets, represented by multiple peaks within each lahar. These packets most likely originate from multiple lahar sources, and can be traced between instrument sites. Those with the highest concentrations and greatest wetted areas were often located mid-lahar at our measured reach, accelerating towards the flow front. As these lahars travel downstream, the individual packets thus coalesce and the flow develops a more organised structure. Observations of different degrees of coalescence between these discrete flow packets illustrate that a single mature debris flow may have formed from multiple dynamically independent lahars, each with different origins.     

Volcanic hazards at Mount Semeru,East Java (Indonesia), with emphasis on lahars

Mt. Semeru, the highest mountain in Java (3,676 m), is one of the few persistently active composite volcanoes on Earth, with a plain supporting about 1 million people. We present the geology of the edifice, review its historical eruptive activity, and assess hazards posed by the current activity, highlighting the lahar threat. The composite andesite cone of Semeru results from the growth of two edifices: the Mahameru ‘old’ Semeru and the Seloko ‘young’ Semeru. On the SE flank of the summit cone, a N130-trending scar, branched on the active Jonggring-Seloko vent, is the current pathway for rockslides and pyroclastic flows produced by dome growth. The eruptive activity, recorded since 1818, shows three styles: (1) The persistent vulcanian and phreatomagmatic regime consists of short-lived eruption columns several times a day; (2) increase in activity every 5 to 7 years produces several kilometer-high eruption columns, ballistic bombs and thick tephra fall around the vent, and ash fall 40 km downwind. Dome extrusion in the vent and subsequent collapses produce block-and-ash flows that travel toward the SE as far as 11 km from the summit; and (3) flank lava flows erupted on the lower SE and E flanks in 1895 and in 1941–1942. Pyroclastic flows recur every 5 years on average while large-scale lahars exceeding 5 million m³ each have occurred at least five times since 1884. Lumajang, a city home to 85,000 people located 35 km E of the summit, was devastated by lahars in 1909. In 2000, the catchment of the Curah Lengkong River on the ESE flank shows an annual sediment yield of 2.7 × 10⁵ m³ km⁻² and a denudation rate of 4 10⁵ t km⁻² yr⁻¹, comparable with values reported at other active composite cones in wet environment. Unlike catchments affected by high magnitude eruptions, sediment yield at Mt. Semeru, however, does not decline drastically within the first post-eruption years. This is due to the daily supply of pyroclastic debris shed over the summit cone, which is remobilised by runoff during the rainy season. Three hazard-prone areas are delineated at Mt. Semeru: (1) a triangle-shaped area open toward the SE has been frequently swept by dome-collapse avalanches and pyroclastic flows; (2) the S and SE valleys convey tens of rain-triggered lahars each year within a distance of 20 km toward the ring plain; (3) valleys 25 km S, SE, and the ring plain 35 km E toward Lumajang can be affected by debris avalanches and debris flows if the steep-sided summit cone fails.