青藏高原北部地区地震空区初步研究

研究了青藏高原北部地区地震空区的时空演化特征，结果表明：大部分Ms≥5地震在孕育发展过程中会形成空区，从孕震空区形成到发震，最短时间1个月，最长时间2a，优势发震时段为4～15个月。孕震空区可作为青藏高原北部地区Ms≥5地震1年尺度的中期预报指标；逼近地震的出现可作为孕震空区形成之后半年内发震的短期指标。     

短期前兆综合异常方法在青藏高原北部地区的应用——以兴海地震为例

通过对青藏高原北部地区118个定点前兆台项资料的研究,提出了利用前兆台网提取前兆综合异常度指标的方法,包括空间综合度和时间综合度.利用前者来研究青藏高原北部地区强震前短期前兆异常的时空演化特征;利用后者来判定未来中强地震的发震时间.在空间综合异常度的研究中较好地解决了前兆台网分布不均匀引起的异常集中区与震中偏离的问题.作为实例给出了2000年9月12日青海省兴海Ms6.6地震前前兆异常的时间和空间综合异常度高值区存在扩散-向震中集中-发震-扩散的过程.     

昆仑山口西8.1级地震后青藏高原北部地区地震活动初步研究

利用相关震例分析了昆仑山口西8．1级地震后青藏高原北部地区未来1～3年地震活动特征．结果表明,沿东昆仑构造带及邻近地区发生Ms≥7．0地震后青藏高原北部地区中强地震活动有增强的趋势,祁连山地震带和东昆仑地震带的地震活动具有交替发生的特征,未来1～3年中强地震主体活动区为大型走滑活动断裂上应力转换部位和挤压会聚构造区,如东昆仑断裂带中东段和祁连山地震带中东段和西段。     

线性合成概率预测在天山地区的应用研究

利用1970~2017年天山地震带(中国境内)Ms5.5级以上地震目录,针对北天山和南天山东段Ms≥5.5级地震及天山地震带、南天山西段和柯坪块体Ms≥6.0级中强地震,计算了基于地震周期谱分析的线性合成概率预测时序变化,进行回顾性震例检验,对2018年地震形势进行预测。结果表明,该方法在天山地震带中强地震的回溯性检验效果较好,为强震趋势预测研究提供一定参考依据。     

临潼地震台氢气异常与地震对应关系研究

研究了1993年8月以来,临潼台氢气异常与远场MS≥5.0、近场ML≥4.0地震的对应关系.结果表明,临潼台氢气异常的映震范围涵盖了从青藏高原北部到鄂尔多斯块体周边的大部分地区,主要与青藏高原北部地区MS≥5.0地震有较好的相关性,特别是在氢气背景值低于仪器检测限的情况下效果更好.应用这种相关性,对判定整个青藏高原北部地区的短临地震活动情况,具有一定的指导意义.     

四川省芦山“4·20”7.0级地震的前瞻性预测验证及震后趋势分析

针对强(大)震能否预测以及如何预测的科学难题,作者提出了孕震断层多锁固段脆性破裂理论与相关预测方法.将汶川地震区前瞻性强震四要素预测结果(包含震级、震中经纬度、震源深度以及临界Benioff应变值)与2013年4月20日发生在四川省雅安市芦山县的Ms 7.0级地震进行比较,认为该地震已被作者所提出的理论方法成功预测.研究表明:芦山"4·20"7.0级地震是汶川"5·12"地震的一次大余震事件,表明该预测理论及方法能可靠地应用于大震及某些大余震事件的预测.此外,本文对汶川地震区未来地震趋势进行了分析.     

华北地区强震前Ms≥5地震平静和信号震的预测意义

华北地区是一个地震多发地区,许多人研究了该地区地震活动强弱、密集-平静的韵律交替变化,提出了随时间的周期轮回过程.笔者发现,1900以来华北地区曾出现多次Ms≥5地震平静的现象,其后有相应的强震发生,而且强震的发生具有成组、成丛的连发特征.许多人也都曾注意到了华北地区强震前在震中附近发生的具有前兆特征意义的信号震,有人将其称为逼近地震,尽管各自的解释和定义有所不同,但对这种地震的前兆意义都是肯定的.信号震的发生,在时空上都有逼近主震的含义,从时间上确定了强震预测的中期时段转折,在空间上缩小了预测区域,是"源"区开始进入失稳状态的重要信息.本文从华北地区Ms≥5地震平静异常和信号震发生的时空特征出发,利用空间图像方法,探讨强震前的"场-源"关系,从而分析华北地区Ms≥5地震平静异常和信号震对强震的预测意义.     

加卸载响应比在震后趋势估计和震前中短期预测中的应用

以加卸载响应比方法在青藏高原北部地区几次中强地震预报中的应用为例 ,讨论了天然地震序列下样本条件对加卸载响应比Y值的影响 ,探讨了该方法在震后趋势估计和震前中短期预测应用中的若干问题 ,以探索提高响应比方法预测地震的成功率 .     

川滇地区调制/非调制地震短期震兆特征研究

对川滇地区进行调制/非调制地震有限时空扫描,提取调制小震具有显著差异的短期非稳态震兆图像,分析强震前调制小震的非稳态短期异常特征及预测效能,并计算震中附近地区的小震调制比时间序列.结果显示,调制地震方法在该地区Ms≥6.0地震的短期预测中效果显著;汶川8.0级地震前,震区附近存在明显的调制小震空段短期震兆图像.     

青藏高原北部地区地震窗口特征及其预报意义

利用青藏高原北部地区弱震活动资料筛选出3个具有中短期预报效能的地震窗口,分析了Ms≥5．0地震前各个窗口的异常特征,提取出半定量的中短期预报指标．即：在中强地震前80％的异常出现在地震前1～6个月,以中心异常出现时间向后推1～6个月作为预测的发震时间;异常幅度与未来震级之间没有明显的对应关系．对于7级以上大地震,古浪窗的显异常主要对应边界水平剪切走滑活动断裂上发生的地震;舟曲窗和乌海窗的显异常主要对应活动块体内部挤压逆冲断裂上发生的地震．而5～6级的中等地震没有明显的对应规律．     

琼中地震台重力仪记录同震响应特征分析

2013年2月6-8日圣克鲁斯群岛发生6次强震,琼中地震台的重力仪记录都有同震响应出现。本文从重力仪记录的面波的延迟时间、最大变形幅度、同震持续时间3个方面研究了6次强震的同震响应特征。     

On the Mechanism of the Secular Tidal Acceleration of the Solid Inner Core and the Viscosity of the Liquid Core

As is known, the secular deceleration of the Earth's diurnal rotation is explained mainly by the tidal friction in the ocean. Below we consider this mechanism in some detail, taking into account also elastic deformations of the mantle under the action of ocean loading and the interaction between the tide-generating body, ocean tidal wave, liquid outer core, and solid inner core. It is shown that elastic displacements of the core-mantle boundary under the action of ocean loading are of about the same amplitude and phase as the elastic loading displacements of the Earth's outer surface. As a result, side by side with the mechanism of secular deceleration of diurnal rotation of the mantle, there are also (1) the opposite mechanism of secular acceleration of diurnal rotation of the outer liquid core and of the solid inner core and (2) the mechanism of excitation of differential rotation in the liquid core. Taking these effects into account, we compare theoretical and modern observed data on the eastward drift of the solid inner core. It is shown that the best agreement may be obtained if the turbulent viscosity of the liquid core is about 2 × 10 ³ Poise     

Comparison Between the Nutations of the Planet Mars and the Nutations of the Earth

The nutations of the planets Mars andEarth are investigated and compared. Alarge number of interior structureparameters are involved in the nutationcomputations. The comparison between the observations and the computationsprovides several constraints on these parmeters andtherefore allows a better understanding of the physics of the interior of theplanet. For the Earth, the high precision of the observations of the nutationshas led to a very good determination of interior properties of the planet. ForMars, observations of nutations are not yet available, and we review how theamplitude of the Martian nutations depends on the hypotheses consideredfor its interior. Although Mars is very similar to the Earth, its interior is not well known;for example, we don't knowif its core is liquid or solid. Only if the core is liquid,the Free Core Nutation (FCN) normal mode exists and can alter the nutationswhich are close to the resonance. From the observed geoids, it is known thatboth planets are not in hydrostatic equilibrium. The departure is larger forMars than for the Earth, and consequently, the implication of considering a convective mantle instead of a mantle in hydrostatic equilibrium described byClairaut's equation for the initial equilibrium state of the planet is largeron the Martian nutations than on the Earth nutations. The consequences of theuncertainty in the core dimensions are also examined and shown to be of a veryhigh influence for Mars if the core is liquid, due to the potential changes inthe FCN resonance. The influence of the presence of an inner core, which isknown to exist for the Earth, could be more important for Mars than for theEarth if the inner core is large. Due to the presence of Tharsis on Mars, thetriaxiality of this planet has, additionally, larger effects than on Earth.     

Contribution to the knowledge of the magmatic evolution by the study of the variation of the coefficient of viscosity

The determination of the coefficient of viscosity of eruptive products gives useful elements to the knowledge of possible variations of composition and physical conditions of the magmas.     

Pictorial Series of the Manifestations of the Dynamics of the Earth

Studia Geophysica et Geodaetica -     

动水压力对深水桥墩地震响应影响的研究综述

地震激励下处于深水中的桥墩和周围水体的相互作用将对桥梁结构的动力响应产生较大影响。首先对地震作用下水-桥墩的相互作用理论做了概括,给出了动水压力对桥墩的作用效应及各自的适用范围;对主要的三种考虑流固耦合效应的分析方法做了对比,探讨了地震作用下影响水-结构相互作用的主要因素,并对今后的研究提出了建议。     

On the solution of the reverse problem of geodesics with the help of the chord

Резюме Дается вывод формул для вычислений длины хорды, длины и азимутов нормаляных сечений и длины геодезической линии эллипсоида. Применяются тригонометрические функции данных величин и постоянные принятого ргфгргнц-эллипсоида, что является целесообразным при использовании вычислителQjных машин, особенно автоматов. Рабочие формулы рекомендуются в форме (8–11).

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Dedicated to Professor František Fiala on His 85th Birthday

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Address: Veveři 95, Brno.     

Evolution of the Source of the Active Region of the Sun

Geomagnetism and Aeronomy - The magnetic evolution of the active region of the Sun at the level of the photosphere has been studied. Magnetic synoptic maps of the 2007 Kitt Peak Observatory were...     

On the gravimetric undulations of the geoid and the deflections of the vertical

Summary The author mentions the aims of the World-wide gravity project he established in the Ohio State University in Columbus, in 1950. He outlines the practical procedure of the gravimetric computations of the undulationsN and the vertical deflection components and and emphasizes that only by the global international cooperation and additional gravity observations at sea carried out during the last decade it has been possible to gather to Columbus the needed gravity material. Since there exist still large gravimetrically unsurveyed areas it is of vital significance to study what gravity anomalies are best to be used for these regions. The given figures concerning the accuracy of theN, and , estimated theoretically and obtained in practice, indicate that in the gravimetrically well surveyed parts of the world like in Europe and the United States we can get gravimetrically on basis of existing gravity material theN-values with accuracy of about 5–10 meters, and and with the accuracy of about 1. The geoid undulationsN are already computed in Columbus for more than 6000 points of the northern hemisphere. The sample maps show the interesting geoid of Europe and vicinity between the latitudes 60° and 30° and longitude 5° W and 30° E, drafted on basis of more than 1000N-values computed at the corners of 1°×1° squares. It is interesting to realize that the geoid undulations in all this area are positive, the extreme values being between 40 and 50 meters. The geophysical significance of the geoid maps of this kind is pointed out.