Comparison of preparatory signal analysis techniques for consideration in the (post-)Kyoto policy process

Our study is a preparatory exercise. We focus on the analysis of uncertainty in greenhouse gas emission inventories. Inventory uncertainty is monitored, but not regulated, under the Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Under the Convention, countries publish annual or periodic national inventories of greenhouse gas emissions and removals. Policymakers use these inventories to develop strategies and policies for emission reductions and to track the progress of these policies. However, greenhouse gas inventories contain uncertainty for a variety of reasons, and these uncertainties have important scientific and policy implications. For most countries, the emission changes agreed under the Protocol are of the same order of magnitude as the uncertainty that underlies their combined (carbon dioxide equivalent) emissions estimates. Here we apply and compare six available techniques to analyze the uncertainty in the emission changes that countries agreed to realize by the end of the Protocol’s first commitment period 2008–2012. Any such technique, if implemented, could “make or break” claims of compliance, especially in cases where countries claim fulfillment of their commitments to reduce or limit emissions. The techniques all perform differently and can thus have a different impact on the design and execution of emission control policies. A thorough comparison of the techniques has not yet been made but is needed when expanding the discussion on how to go about dealing with uncertainty under the Kyoto Protocol and its successor.     

Influence of national governments for or against the entry into force of the Kyoto Protocol: a Banzhaf index analysis

The recent announcement by the USA to withdraw their support for the Kyoto Protocol has drawn attention to the conditions under which the Protocol will enter into force: at least 55 member states to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) have to ratify the Protocol, and those industrialized countries (Annex-I parties) that ratify it have to make up for at least 55% of the carbon dioxide emissions of this group in 1990. In this article, we analyze the a priori decision making power of individual parties, or groups of these, for the entry into force of the Kyoto Protocol, utilizing a mathematical approach known as the Banzhaf index. The results of our analysis suggest that the conditions for the entry into force of the Kyoto Protocol give more influence to the USA than might have been anticipated: while the USA has more voting power than the relative share of emissions suggests, all other Annex-I parties have less. Based on a mathematical model, this analysis shows that the Banzhaf index is a more realistic indicator of voting power than the bare numbers fixed in the Kyoto Protocol. This method could be used more extensively in the future for the analysis of voting procedures, in particular within the UNFCCC.     

Implementing the Kyoto Protocol without the USA: the strategic role of energy tax adjustments at the border

Abstract

This article explores options for countries that have ratified the 1997 Kyoto Protocol to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change and that intend to implement ambitious climate protection strategies—the ‘Kyoto coalition’—to deal with possible comparative disadvantages vis-à-vis third parties, in particular industrialized countries that do not adhere to the Kyoto Protocol. Specifically, the article focuses on the instrument of border adjustments for energy taxes. We outline the rationale for such adjustments and examine in detail whether certain border adjustments for energy taxes would be permissible under world trade law, in particular the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade and the Agreement on Subsidies and Countervailing Measures. We conclude that despite remaining ambiguity in both the legal provisions and the pertinent case law, border tax adjustments are under certain circumstances compatible with world trade law. Yet, given persisting legal uncertainty, it seems likely that affected members of the World Trade Organization would challenge such energy tax adjustments at the border before the WTO dispute settlement mechanism.     

From Kyoto via Moscow to nowhere?

Abstract

Since the World Climate Change Conference held in the autumn of 2003 in Moscow, Russian Federation, the fate of international climate policy architecture designed around the Kyoto Protocol hangs in the balance. After the withdrawal of the USA from the Kyoto Protocol, the condition of its ratification cannot be met without the Russian Federation. There has been a considerable uncertainty as to Russia's intentions regarding ratification of Kyoto. In this contribution, an attempt is made to identify the Russian motives and concerns, and explain their attitudes regarding the Kyoto Protocol. Pressures against and for ratification are discussed. Finally, a few comments are made about the future of the efforts to solve the global environmental problem of protecting the Earth's climate.     

Reducing emissions from deforestation—The “combined incentives” mechanism and empirical simulations

Despite accounting for 17–25% of anthropogenic emissions, deforestation was not included in the Kyoto Protocol. The UN Convention on Climate Change is considering its inclusion in future agreements and asked its scientific board to study methodological and scientific issues related to positive incentives to reduce emissions from deforestation. Here we present an empirically derived mechanism that offers a mix of incentives to developing countries to reduce emissions from deforestation, conserve and possibly enhance their ecosystem's carbon stocks. We also use recent data to model its effects on the 20 most forested developing countries. Results show that at low CO₂ prices (～US$ 8/t CO₂) a successful mechanism could reduce more than 90% of global deforestation at an annual cost of US$ 30 billion.     

Searching for baselines constructing joint implementation project emission reductions

Joint implementation of emission reductions by countries is an important component of the Kyoto Protocol. The calculation of emission reductions from projects requires the definition of baselines that describe what would have happened in the absence of the JI projects. Baselines do not occur and are described as counterfactual. This paper applies a sociological perspective to analyse the arguments used to support different baselines by the actors involved in climate change policy. It concludes that environmental arguments should be given prominence in how baselines are defined to ensure that the environmental objectives of the Framework Convention on Climate Change are preserved.     

GHG emission estimates for road transport in national GHG inventories

The annual reporting procedures of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) have now produced greenhouse gas (GHG) emission inventories from 40 so-called Annex I countries for 18 years. This article analyses a subset of these data: emissions from road transport. The article compares the reported data with the technical guidance on GHG emission inventories provided by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The analysis suggests that some countries use the IPCC's default emission factors, whereas other countries use country-specific values. In the case of diesel-fuelled road transport, the estimated emissions appear to be generally comparable between all countries for all years. For CO₂ emissions from gasoline-fuelled road transport, the picture is less clear. The results suggest that the default emission factor for CO₂ from motor gasoline as provided by the IPCC is about 3–5% too low. Countries that seem to apply this default value might therefore underestimate their emissions by the same percentage. The effect of this possible underestimate on trends is, however, very small. Despite the possible problem with the default emission factor, the quantification of the trend in emissions is only slightly influenced by this.     

Greenhouse gas emission mitigation plan for the State of Israel: strategies,incentives and reporting

In the context of the negotiations under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and its accompanying Kyoto Protocol, participating nations have recognized the need for formulating Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions (NAMAs). These NAMAs allow countries to take into account their national circumstances and to construct measures to mitigate GHG emissions across economic sectors. Israel has declared to the UN that it would strive to reduce its GHG emissions by 20% in the year 2020 relative to a ‘business as usual' scenario. With its growing population and an expanding economy, the national GHG mitigation plan was developed to draw a course for steering the Israeli economy into a low-carbon future while accommodating continued economic growth. The article describes relevant policy measures, designed to aid in the implementation of the plan and compares them with measures being undertaken by different countries. Emphasis is placed on analysing the progress to date, opportunities and barriers to attaining the ultimate GHG emissions reduction goals. The objective of this article is to contribute to the knowledge base of effective approaches for GHG emissions reduction. We emphasize the integrated approach of planning and implementation that could be especially useful for developing countries or countries with economies in transition, as well as for developed countries. Yet, in the article we argue that NAMAs’ success hinges on structured tracking of progress according to emerging global consensus standards such as the GHG Protocol Mitigation Goals Standard.

Policy relevance:

The study is consistent with the NAMA concept, enabling a country to adopt a ‘climate action plan’ that contributes to its sustainable development, while enabled by technology and being fiscally sound.

The analysis shows that although NAMAs have been framed in terms of projects, policies, and goals, current methodologies allow only the calculation of emission reductions that can be attributed to distinct projects. Currently, no international guidance exists for quantifying emissions reduction from policy-based NAMAs, making it difficult to track and validate progress. This gap could be addressed by an assessment framework that we have tested, as part of a World Resources Institute pilot study for an emerging voluntary global standard.     

Impact of the Doha outcome on surplus emission allowances and their effect on developed country emissions

The outcome from the December 2012 climate negotiations in Doha has clarified the rules regarding surplus units for the Kyoto Protocol. We summarize these new rules and estimate the resulting effective emissions during the second commitment period using our unit trade model. Other options to deal with surplus emission allowances are employed as benchmarks to assess the Doha outcome. The effective emissions for developed countries as a group under the Doha outcome could be 10–11 % below 1990 levels or 4–5 % points below business-as-usual levels for the second commitment period if we assume that non-Kyoto Protocol countries domestically achieve their targets. However, if mechanisms exist where non-Kyoto Protocol countries can trade units, their emissions could increase and effective emissions for developed countries could be 7–8 % below 1990 levels. In this low-ambition situation we find the main impact of the Doha surplus rules to be the introduction of the historical cap on emissions allowances. Without the effect of the cap, the Doha outcome allows the Parties to the second commitment period to emit at business-as-usual levels until 2020, while still leaving surplus units at the end of the second commitment period.     

Keeping the forest for the climate's sake: avoiding deforestation in developing countries under the UNFCCC

Abstract

A process for reducing emissions from deforestation in developing countries has been initiated under the UNFCCC. Efforts to agree on a legally binding instrument to halt deforestation have previously failed in other international fora. The magnitude of the social, economic, technical and political complexities underlying deforestation have led to negotiations being challenging. What policy instruments could provide incentives to reduce deforestation, and how could these instruments be framed, under the UNFCCC? This article analyses the advantages and disadvantages of the available alternatives within and outside of the Kyoto Protocol. Staying within the Kyoto framework means low institutional development costs, established but limited incentives for action, and low flexibility. Alternatives outside the Protocol provide higher institutional development costs, uncertainties with regard to the incentives, but greater flexibility. We argue that a separate protocol may be the most viable option, as it could offer the necessary flexibility and avoid some technical and political pitfalls that would be likely to beset new efforts under the Kyoto Protocol. The article also presents the concept of ‘committed forests’ as a means of defining geographically where the reduction of emissions from deforestation can take place.     

Responsibility for Past and Future Global Warming: Uncertainties in Attributing Anthropogenic Climate Change

During the negotiations on the Kyoto Protocol, Brazil proposed a methodology to link the relative contribution of Annex I Parties to emission reductions with the relative contributions of Parties to the global-mean temperature increase. The proposal was not adopted during the negotiations but referred to the Subsidiary Body for Scientific and Technological Advice for consideration of its methodological aspects. In this context we analyze the impact of model uncertainties and methodological choices on the regionally attributed global-mean temperature increase. A climate assessment model has been developed to calculate changes in greenhouse gas concentrations, global-mean temperature and sea-level rise attributable to individual regions. The analysis shows the impact of the different choices in methodological aspects to be as important as the impact of model uncertainties on a region's contribution to present and future global temperature increases. Choices may be the inclusion of the anthropogenic non-CO₂ greenhouse gas emissions and/or theCO₂ emissions associated with land-use changes. When responsibility to global temperature change is attributed to all emitting Parties, the impacts of modeling uncertainties and methodological choices on contributions of individual Parties are considerable. However, if relative contributions are calculated only within the group of Annex I countries, the results are less sensitive to the uncertainty aspects considered here.     

第二承诺期土地利用、土地利用变化与林业规则的各方观点及对策建议

 由土地利用、土地利用变化和林业（LULUCF）活动产生的生态系统的固碳作用,是降低大气中温室气体浓度增加速度的重要途径之一。1997-2001年,经历了长达4 a的艰苦谈判,最终达成了第一承诺期附件一国家利用LULUCF的规则。2008年开始,国际社会开始磋商第二承诺期附件一国家如何利用LULUCF活动的规则。主要缔约方就第二承诺期LULUCF规则提出了各自的观点,发达国家的观点主要包括提高开展碳汇活动的积极性、降低LULUCF规则的复杂性和减少成本、增加《京都议定书》3.4条款下的合格活动等,其目的是在第二承诺期能够利用更多的碳汇完成减排义务;发展中国家主要提出要系统地考虑土地利用造成的温室气体排放和CO2的吸收。最后,针对附件一缔约方在第二承诺期利用LULUCF活动规则,提出了我国应采取的对策建议。     

第二承诺期土地利用、土地利用变化与林业规则的各方观点及对策建议

由土地利用、土地利用变化和林业（LULUCF）活动产生的生态系统的固碳作用,是降低大气中温室气体浓度增加速度的重要途径之一。1997-2001年,经历了长达4 a的艰苦谈判,最终达成了第一承诺期附件一国家利用LULUCF的规则。2008年开始,国际社会开始磋商第二承诺期附件一国家如何利用LULUCF活动的规则。主要缔约方就第二承诺期LULUCF规则提出了各自的观点,发达国家的观点主要包括提高开展碳汇活动的积极性、降低LULUCF规则的复杂性和减少成本、增加《京都议定书》3.4条款下的合格活动等,其目的是在第二承诺期能够利用更多的碳汇完成减排义务;发展中国家主要提出要系统地考虑土地利用造成的温室气体排放和CO2的吸收。最后,针对附件一缔约方在第二承诺期利用LULUCF活动规则,提出了我国应采取的对策建议。     

Economics of the Kyoto Protocol for Russia

Abstract

In this article we propose a careful analysis of the economic consequences of the Kyoto Protocol for Russia, taking into account the most recently available data and the latest developments in the trends regarding Russian economic recovery. We present a review of different GHG forecasts for Russia and develop a new forecast for uncertain GDP growth and changing elasticity of GHG emission per GDP. Since the rate of growth remains uncertain, elasticity could change over time, as well as the fuel mix. We apply the Monte-Carlo method to simulate these uncertainties and to produce a reasonable interval for CO₂ emissions in 2010. The probability of Russia exceeding its Kyoto emissions budget is essentially zero. Further, we discuss the benefits for Russia from the Kyoto Protocol, and more generally from implementation of GHG mitigation policy. Ancillary benefits from Kyoto Protocol implementation will bring essential reductions in risk to human health. On the other hand, potential negative changes in the fuel mix and GDP structure, as well as a slowing of the innovation process, could exacerbate existing health problems. Alternatives to the Kyoto Protocol may bring much tougher commitments to Russia. We conclude that the Kyoto Protocol is the best possible deal for Russia. Therefore, Russia most will ratify it.     

Carbon Sequestration and the Restoration of Land Health

Carbon sequestration, the conversion of greenhouse gas CO₂ toorganic matter, offers a powerful tool with which to combat climate change. The enlargement of carbon sinks stored in soil and biota is an essential tool in buying time while mankind seeks means to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases and to reduce the elevated levels of atmospheric CO₂. Carbon sequestration within the context of the Kyoto Protocol of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) also has great potential as an incentive for combating land degradation and desertification and restoring fertility to degraded land.Decisions regarding carbon sinks during finalization of the operational details of the Kyoto Protocol in 2001 fit well the needs of countries facing land degradation and desertification. However, incentives for such mitigation through the Clean Development Mechanism of the protocol are limited to forestry issues. Iceland provides a good example of the multiple role of carbon sequestration in meeting national commitments to UNFCCC, conserving and restoring biological diversity, combating soil erosion, revegetation of eroded land and reforestation. Linking carbon sequestration with such goals has resulted in increased funds for soil conservation and restoration of degraded land in Iceland.     

Technology transfer by CDM projects

Abstract

Technology development and transfer is an important feature of both the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and its Kyoto Protocol. Although the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) does not have an explicit technology transfer mandate, it may contribute to technology transfer by financing emission reduction projects using technologies currently not available in the host countries. This article analyses the claims about technology transfer made by CDM project participants in their project design documents. Roughly one-third of all CDM projects, accounting for almost two-thirds of the annual emission reductions, involve technology transfer. Technology transfer varies widely across project types and is more common for larger projects and projects with foreign participants. Equipment transfer is more common for larger projects, while smaller projects involve transfers of both equipment and knowledge or of knowledge alone. Technology transfer does not appear to be closely related to country size or per-capita GDP, but a host country can influence the extent of technology transfer involved in its CDM projects.     

The case for Japanese—Russian joint implementation in implementing the Kyoto Protocol

The Doha Amendment allows surplus Assigned Amount Units (AAUs) to be carried over from the first commitment period, but limits their use for offsetting emission growth beyond commitment levels. Amendment 7ter simultaneously ‘shaves’ AAU allocation to a level equivalent to the average 2008–2010 emissions for countries that pledged a growth target under the second commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol. This means that economies in transition (EITs) are not allocated headroom for growth, and makes their commitments starkly different from their original pledges. The ‘bubble’ arrangement within the EU adds uncertainty to whether new Member States will avoid the ‘shaving’ of 7ter due to their pooled target. This would put Annex I EITs into an unequal position as a result of the Doha Amendment.     

Alternatives to the Global Warming Potential for Comparing Climate Impacts of Emissions of Greenhouse Gases

The Global Warming Potential (GWP) is used within the Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change as a metric for weighting the climatic impact of emissions of different greenhouse gases. The GWP has been subjected to many criticisms because of its formulation, but nevertheless it has retained some favour because of the simplicity of its design and application, and its transparency compared to proposed alternatives. Here, two new metrics are proposed, which are based on a simple analytical climate model. The first metric is called the Global Temperature Change Potential and represents the temperature change at a given time due to a pulse emission of a gas (GTP_P); the second is similar but represents the effect of a sustainedemission change (hence GTP_S). Both GTP_P and GTP_S are presented as relative to the temperature change due to a similar emission change of a reference gas, here taken to be carbon dioxide. Both metrics are compared against an upwelling-diffusion energy balance model that resolves land and ocean and the hemispheres. The GTP_P does not perform well, compared to the energy balance model, except for long-lived gases. By contrast, the GTP_S is shown to perform well relative to the energy balance model, for gases with a wide variety of lifetimes. It is also shown that for time horizons in excess of about 100 years, the GTP_S and GWP produce very similar results, indicating an alternative interpretation for the GWP. The GTP_S retains the advantage of the GWP in terms of transparency, and the relatively small number of input parameters required for calculation. However, it has an enhanced relevance, as it is further down the cause–effect chain of the impacts of greenhouse gases emissions and has an unambiguous interpretation. It appears to be robust to key uncertainties and simplifications in its derivation and may be an attractive alternative to the GWP.     

Media attention for climate change around the world: A comparative analysis of newspaper coverage in 27 countries

Climate change is a global phenomenon, and its outcomes affect societies around the world. So far, however, studies on media representations of climate change have mostly concentrated on Western societies. This paper goes beyond this limited geographical scope by presenting a comparative analysis of issue attention in 27 countries. The sample includes, among others, countries that have committed themselves to greenhouse gas emission reductions under the Kyoto Protocol such as Germany as well as countries that are strongly affected by the consequences of climate change like India. In a first step, it describes the development of media attention for climate change in these countries from 1996 to 2010. Second, it compares the amount of media attention and explores whether it corresponds with indicators measuring the relevance of climate change and climate policies for a country. The analyses show that climate change coverage has increased in all countries. Still, overall media attention levels, as well as the extent of growth over time, differ strongly between countries. Media attention is especially high in carbon dependent countries with commitments under the Kyoto Protocol.     

A Model for Estimating Future Emissions of Sulfur Hexafluoride and Perfluorocarbons

Sulfur hexafluoride (SF₆), perfluoromethane (CF₄) and perfluoroethane (C₂F₆) are strong greenhouse gases with long (>1000 year) atmospheric residence times. We derive emission factors for the major anthropogenic sources and project future emissions for 5 regions and the world. Although firms in many industrialized countries are already limiting emissions, without further policy intervention global emissions will rise 150% (CF₄ and C₂F₆) and 210% (SF₆) between 1990 and 2050; radiative forcing will increase 0.026 W m^-2. Full application of available low-cost and costless policies in industrialized nations would cut that radiative forcing by one-quarter. Increased forcing due to these gases is small (<2%) relative to other gases but permanent on the timescale of human civilization. We also quantify plausible manipulations to governmental data that will be used to determine compliance with the 1997 Kyoto Protocol, which includes commitments for industrialized countries to regulate these and other greenhouse gases. More complete and transparent data are urgently needed. West European nations, for example, can cut their emissions of these gases by half by 2010 simply by manipulating emission factors within the current bounds of uncertainty.