Confidence bounds on risk assessments for underground nuclear waste repositories

The estimation of risk confidence bounds is an important element of a comprehensive probabilistic risk assessment for a radioactive waste repository. Normal distribution bounds may be used in the asymptotic limit of a very large number of Monte Carlo simulations, but sharp skewness of the risk distribution may severely retard the convergence process. The Tchebycheff bounds are parameter-free and may be applied regardless of distribution, save for the finiteness of variance. These bounds may be generally applicable, but they are invariably very broad. Better parameter-free bounds for mean risk are presented here, based on an inequality originally derived by Guttman.     

A nanoscopic hydro-thermo-mechanical model for nuclear waste shale/clay repositories

Shales or highly compacted engineered clay layers are being used as buffers in deep surface nuclear waste repositories. Due to the complex natural structure and fabric of clay and non-clay minerals associated with high in situ stresses, high temperatures, and the practical difficulties in the replication of the field stress and temperature conditions in the lab testing facilities, swell potential from the macro and micro investigations does not provide reliable and universally applicable results. In this study, a comprehensive molecular-level simulation-based volume change constitutive model has been developed for clay minerals incorporating the effects of cation exchange capacity, density, water content, in situ stress state, temperature, exchangeable-cations type and proportion, pore fluids, and the dissolved salts. The molecular simulations were performed using molecular mechanics, molecular dynamics, and Monte Carlo simulation techniques. Comparing the model predictions with the results of the lab tests, the model has been proven to be quite precise in the prediction of the swell potential of these strata under various overburden pressures and temperatures. There is several fold increase in swelling of clay samples at 80 °C as compared to the equivalent specimen tested at 25 °C. The effect of higher temperature is lesser at lower initial water content (higher density) while at higher water content (lower density) the structure has been found to be more vulnerable at higher temperatures. About 100 times higher confining pressure results in the same swell at 80 °C as in its counterpart specimen at 25 °C, the corresponding swell increase factor in case of 50 °C specimens is about 45. A sharp increase in swelling with a drop in in situ pressure emphasizes the probability of higher swell as a result of an accidental reduction in in situ pressure such as the higher concentration of nuclear reactions. In this study, the cohesive energy density (CED) was found to be highly sensitive to various volume change variables, such as water content, density, CEC, type, and percentage of exchangeable and non-exchangeable cations. Contrary to all the previous models, CED-based model developed in this study is universal in nature and can be adopted for any case with minimal basic material input parameters. The good agreement found between the predicted and real values for the swell potential of the undisturbed samples suggests that the model presented here can effectively be used for the assessment of the swelling potential of shale/clay deposits to be used as buffers to the nuclear waste storage.     

核废料贮存裂隙岩体中THM耦合过程的有限元分析

本文首先给出了核废料贮存裂隙岩体中THM耦合作用的数学模型,然后用加权残数法,建立了以结点位移、水压力和温度为求解量的有限元计算格式,提出了数值模拟渗流、附加应力和热载耦合作用的有限元分析方法,最后给出了一个BMT1问题的算例.     

A multiple-code simulation study of the long-term EDZ evolution of geological nuclear waste repositories

This simulation study shows how widely different model approaches can be adapted to model the evolution of the excavation disturbed zone (EDZ) around a heated nuclear waste emplacement drift in fractured rock. The study includes modeling of coupled thermal-hydrological-mechanical (THM) processes, with simplified consideration of chemical coupling in terms of time-dependent strength degradation or subcritical crack growth. The different model approaches applied in this study include boundary element, finite element, finite difference, particle mechanics, and elasto-plastic cellular automata methods. The simulation results indicate that thermally induced differential stresses near the top of the emplacement drift may cause progressive failure and permeability changes during the first 100 years (i.e., after emplacement and drift closure). Moreover, the results indicate that time-dependent mechanical changes may play only a small role during the first 100 years of increasing temperature and thermal stress, whereas such time-dependency is insignificant after peak temperature, because of decreasing thermal stress.     

Corrosion mechanisms relevant to high-level waste repositories

Corrosion is the destructive reaction of metals with their environment. The environment associated with a waste container is an extremely complex one, creating many possibilities for corrosion of the waste container. The different basic types of corrosion are governed by different equations and reactions. Schematic drawings and photographs illustrate the mechanisms of corrosion and factors which influence the forms of corrosion are outlined. There are techniques for testing the susceptibility to certain types of corrosion, and some standard test procedures have been developed. Predictive models have been proposed for crevice corrosion, stress corrosion cracking and scale formation. Existing models and extrapolations are all subject to limits on their applicability.     

Some aspects of release and transport of gases in deep granitic rocks: possible implications for nuclear waste repositories

Radon, radium and helium data from three sites in granitic rock in Sweden (Forsmark and Laxemar) and Finland (Olkiluoto) from depths greater than 1,000 m were interpreted by a model that describes how daughter nuclides, including helium from uranium and thorium decay, escape from minerals, enter the pore water in the rock matrix and diffuse to the seeping water in the fractures in the rock. The radium concentrations are on the order of <30 Bq/l of water that has recently infiltrated and then emerged from the rock. Radon concentrations are mostly several orders of magnitude larger. The model predicts values in the same range. The fair agreement between model results, field data and laboratory data over a scale spanning micrometres over meters to kilometres, and time scales of days to millions of years, shows that the micropores of the rock matrix are connected even at depths down to and beyond a kilometre. Molecular diffusion in the matrix pore water is a key migration mechanism. Laboratory-derived sorption coefficients for radium are of the same magnitude as those needed in the modelling of the in situ data to give good agreement.     

A comparative simulation study of coupled THM processes and their effect on fractured rock permeability around nuclear waste repositories

This paper presents an international, multiple-code, simulation study of coupled thermal, hydrological, and mechanical (THM) processes and their effect on permeability and fluid flow in fractured rock around heated underground nuclear waste emplacement drifts. Simulations were conducted considering two types of repository settings (1) open emplacement drifts in relatively shallow unsaturated volcanic rock, and (2) backfilled emplacement drifts in deeper saturated crystalline rock. The results showed that for the two assumed repository settings, the dominant mechanism of changes in rock permeability was thermal–mechanically induced closure (reduced aperture) of vertical fractures, caused by thermal stress resulting from repository-wide heating of the rock mass. The magnitude of thermal–mechanically induced changes in permeability was more substantial in the case of an emplacement drift located in a relatively shallow, low-stress environment where the rock is more compliant, allowing more substantial fracture closure during thermal stressing. However, in both of the assumed repository settings in this study, the thermal–mechanically induced changes in permeability caused relatively small changes in the flow field, with most changes occurring in the vicinity of the emplacement drifts.     

A natural cement analogue study to understand the long-term behaviour of cements in nuclear waste repositories: Maqarin (Jordan)

The geological storage of nuclear waste includes multibarrier engineered systems where a large amount of cement-based material is used. Predicting the long term behaviour of cement is approached by reactive transport modelling, where some of the boundary conditions can be defined through studying natural cement analogues (e.g. at the Maqarin natural analogue site). At Maqarin, pyrometamorphism of clay biomicrites and siliceous chalks, caused by the in-situ combustion of organic matter, produced various clinker minerals. The interaction of infiltrating groundwater with these clinker phases resulted in a portlandite-buffered hyperalkaline leachate plume, which migrated into the adjacent biomicrite host rock, resulting in the precipitation of hydrated cement minerals.In this study, rock samples with different degrees of interaction with the hyperalkaline plume were investigated by various methods (mostly SEM-EDS). The observations have identified a paragenetic sequence of hydrous cement minerals, and reveal how the fractures and porosity in the biomicrite have become sequentially filled. In the alkaline disturbed zone, C-A-S-H (an unstoichiometric gel of Ca, Al, Si and OH) is observed to fill the pores of the biomicrite wallrock, as a consequence of reaction with a high pH Ca-rich fluid circulating in fractures. Porosity profiles indicate that in some cases the pores of the rock adjacent to the fractures became tightly sealed, whereas in the veins some porosity is preserved. Later pulses of sulphate-rich groundwater precipitated ettringite and occasionally thaumasite in the veins, whereas downstream in the lower pH distal regions of the hyperalkaline plume, zeolite was precipitated.Comparing our observations with the reactive transport modelling results reveals two major discrepancies: firstly, the models predict that ettringite is precipitated before C-A-S-H, whereas the C-A-S-H is observed as the earlier phase in Maqarin; and, secondly, the models predict that ettringite acts as the principal pore-filling phase in contrast to the C-A-S-H observed in the natural system. These discrepancies are related to the fact that our data were not available at the time the modelling studies were performed. However, all models succeeded in reproducing the porosity reduction observed at the fracture–rock interface in the natural analogue system.     

Investigation of solid waste soil as road construction material

The geotechnical properties of solid waste soils for use as sub-base materials in road construction were investigated. A series of field tests and laboratory tests were performed to assess the physical and mechanical properties of the solid waste soils sampled from a landfill site, near to a riverside, which had been reclaimed over the last two decades. The tests showed that geotechnical properties are clearly affected by the magnitude of organic matter content. As the organic matter content increases, the maximum dry unit weight, the shear strength and bearing capacity of ground decrease, while the void ratio and compressibility increase. If the organic matter content is more than about 8% in solid waste soils, it is not suitable for use as a sub-base material in road construction due to the significant decrease of shear strength and bearing capacity.     

Some aspects of sandwiched soil cover design for toxic waste repositories

The environmental concern favours “dry” waste management systems compared to the more common practice of shallow land burial. With the former, sandwiched soil covers are usually employed. A double barrier concept is presented and discussed for the sandwiched construction. The critical matrix potentials of the two barrier materials appear to have significant influence on the performance of the dual barrier system. Despite some practical problems, the concept appears promising.     

Seismogeological acceptance criteria for geological repositories for spent nuclear fuel

Qualitative geological acceptance criteria and quantitative seismological acceptance criteria for radioactive waste disposals are developed. The background material for the initiation of site selection and for its earthquake hazard assessment is discussed. The recent movements of the Earth's surface as well as the other mechanical properties of geological media, hydrological conditions of geological blocks, their groundwater chemistry, geochemical rheology, petrological analyses of rocks, etc., have to be taken into account. A new comprehensive integrated safety analysis of the final underground disposal of spent nuclear fuel has been underway in the Czech Republic since 1991. In accordance with these seismogeological acceptance criteria regions for building underground final radioactive waste disposals are singled out in the Czech Republic.     

Treatment of uncertainties in the performance assessment of geologic high-level radioactive waste repositories

Federal regulations governing the disposal of high-level radioactive waste in deep, geologic repositories require an assessment of performance over thousands of years. Because of the long regulatory period involved and the complex nature of the events and processes of interest, prediction of the performance of the disposal system will inevitably include uncertainties. These uncertainties come from a variety of sources, and some are quantifiable and others are not. This paper discusses these uncertainties and outlines approaches for their treatment. Recommendations for the potential resolution of current limitations in the treatment of uncertainties in performance assessment are made. Some general issues, as well as a suggested approach for incorporating expert judgment into quantitative performance assessment analysis, are discussed also.This paper was presented (by title) at Emerging Concepts, MGUS-87 Conference, Redwood City, California, 13–15 April 1987.     

Crushed aggregate—bentonite mixtures as backfill material for repositories of low- and intermediate level radioactive wastes

The candidate backfill materials for the repositories of low- and intermediate-level radioactive wastes consist of three components: crushed rock aggregate, finely ground rock aggregate and bentonite. The hydraulic conductivity of mixtures with 15% of sodium bentonite is approximately 5 · 10^-9m/s based on the laboratory tests. The sweling potential for the same material varies between 20 and 60 kPa depending mainly on the salinity of the groundwater.     

Implementation of microbial processes in the performance assessment of spent nuclear fuel repositories

Present strategies for the long-term disposal of high-level nuclear wastes are based on the construction of repositories hundreds of meters below the earth surface. Although the surrounding host-rocks are relatively isolated from the light at the earth surface they are by no means lifeless. Microorganisms rule the deep part of the biosphere and it is well established that their activity can alter chemical and physical properties of these environments. Microbial processes can directly and indirectly affect radionuclide migration in multiple ways. Within 6th FP IP FUNMIG the interplay between microbial biofilms and radionuclides and the effect of microbially induced redox transformations of Fe on radionuclide mobility have been investigated. For the first time, formation of U(V) as a consequence of microbial U(VI) reduction in a multi-species biofilm was detected in vivo by combining laser fluorescence spectroscopy and confocal laser scanning microscopy. Furthermore, it was demonstrated that addition of U(VI) can lead to increased respiratory activity in a biofilm. Increased respiration in a biofilm can create microenvironments with lower redox potential, and hence induce reduction of radionuclides. Transient mobilization of U was observed in experiments with Fe oxides containing adsorbed U(VI) in which the activity of SO₄-reducing organisms was mimicked by sulfide addition. Faster reaction of sulfide with Fe oxides compared to U(VI) reduction, and decreasing U(VI) adsorption due to the transformation of Fe oxides into FeS can explain the observed intermittent U mobilization. The presented research on microbe-radionuclide interactions performed within FUNMIG addresses only a few aspects of the potential role of microorganisms in the performance assessment of nuclear waste repositories. For this reason, additionally, this article provides a cursory overview of microbial processes which were not studied within the FUNMIG project but are relevant in the context of performance assessment. The following aspects are presented: (a) the occurrence and metabolic activity of microorganisms of several proposed types of host-rocks, (b) the potential importance of microorganisms in the near-field of nuclear waste repositories, (c) indirect effects of microbial processes on radionuclide mobility in the repository far-field, (d) binding of radionuclides to microbial biomass, (e) microbial redox transformations of radionuclides, and (f) the implementation of microbial processes in reactive transport models for radionuclide migration.     

Heat-induced moisture movement within a clay-based sealing material

The bentonite-sand buffer material, which isolates the nuclear-fuel waste containers from the host rock mass, is a vital component of the multiple engineered barrier scheme advocated by the Canadian Nuclear Fuel Waste Management Program. This paper presents results of laboratory investigations which examine the influence of the container surface temperatures on the moisture migration within a compacted buffer in a borehole environment.     

Stability of expansive cement grout borehole seals emplaced in the vicinity of underground radioactive waste repositories

An expansive cementitious borehole plug emplaced in an underground opening in the vicinity of an underground nuclear waste repository may generate radial stresses on the walls of the opening due to an axial stress applied to the borehole plug and due to plug swelling. As these radial stresses may lead to the tensile fracturing of the rock, minimizing or preferably eliminating tensile stresses in rock is particularly important to preserve waste containment. Presented in this paper are the theoretical radial (normal) stress distribution and tensile strength in a borehole plug–rock system due to combined axial, thermal and lateral loading, along with analyses of plug–rock mechanical interactions in regards to borehole stability against tensile fracturing.