震级频度与古登堡-里克特关系式偏离的前兆意义

地震震级频度的古登堡-里克特关系式(简称G-R关系式)一直是许多地震学问题研究的重要前提之一, 然而实际分布常常与这一关系式有一定的偏离。 文中利用已有的对含有凹凸体、 挤压雁列破裂及Ⅲ型剪切破裂等三种类型的岩石实验结果, 对接收到的声发射事件序列分别进行了分段地震震级频度的G-R关系式拟合, 重点考察了每一时间窗内表征实际地震震级频度与这一关系式偏离程度的线性拟合系数r值的变化。 研究结果表明, 含有凹凸体、 挤压雁列破裂的岩石声发射序列在加压－破裂过程中, 分段扫描分别计算得出的r值在标本失稳前出现数字下降的现象, 表明临近岩石失稳, 实际地震震级频度与G-R关系式偏离程度有加大的趋势; 而含Ⅲ型剪切破裂的岩石在标本失稳前, 声发射序列r值数字下降的现象不明显。 部分实际震例也表明, 在一些中强地震前也存在着这种偏离。 研究结果可能对利用区域地震活动资料探求部分类型的中强地震前可能存在的前兆信息具有一定的参考意义。     

Statistical Detection and Characterization of a Deviation from the Gutenberg-Richter Distribution above Magnitude 8

— We present a quantitative statistical test for the presence of a crossover c₀ in the Gutenberg-Richter distribution of earthquake seismic moments, separating the usual power-law regime for seismic moments less than c₀ from another faster decaying regime beyond c₀. Our method is based on the transformation of the ordered sample of seismic moments into a series with uniform distribution under condition of no crossover. A simulation method allows us to estimate the statistical significance of the null hypothesis H₀ of an absence of crossover (c₀=infinity). When H₀ is rejected, we estimate the crossover c₀ using two different competing models for the second regime beyond c₀ and the simulation method. For the catalog obtained by aggregating 14 subduction zones of the Circum-Pacific Seismic Belt, our estimate of the crossover point is log(c₀)=28.14 ± 0.40 (c₀ in dyne-cm), corresponding to a crossover magnitude m_W=8.1 ± 0.3. For separate subduction zones, the corresponding estimates are substantially more uncertain, so that the null hypothesis of an identical crossover for all subduction zones cannot be rejected. Such a large value of the crossover magnitude makes it difficult to associate it directly with a seismogenic thickness as proposed by many different authors. Our measure of c₀ may substantiate the concept that the localization of strong shear deformation could propagate significantly in the lower crust and upper mantle, thus increasing the effective size beyond which one should expect a change of regime.     

中强地震形变前兆异常时空分布综述

以形变观测资料为基础, 对地球物理场区域形变测量和定点形变测量资料中的震前异常现象的时空分布特征进行了统计分析, 得到以下认识: 对于大范围的地球物理场区域形变, 异常发生时间较早, 范围相对较小, 适合于中长期地点的判定; 定点形变观测, 异常发生距发震时间较近, 但范围分布则较广泛, 适合于短期地震的预测, 发震地点需要结合大范围的区域形变测量资料来判断。 本工作对认识前兆异常现象的时空分布特征和加强实际预报效能都有积极的意义。     

前兆场动态演化与强震成组活动

本文选取了我国两个前兆台网较密集的地区进行了前兆异常场时空扫描。这两个地区分别是南北带中南段(20°～35°N,95°～110°E)和华北地区(36°～42°N,110°～120°E)。在空间上以05°×05°为一个窗口,025°为一个滑动步长;在时间上以4个月为一个窗口,1个月为滑动步长,对这两个地区分别从1994年1月和1995年1月开始进行前兆异常密度时空扫描。所用前兆异常来自中国地震局分析预报中心全国震情研究室和首都圈震情研究室的《月会商纪要》。针对所得扫描结果,试图用一种具有鲜明物理机制的构造块体孕震模型来解释前兆场演化的物理机制。在孕震块体模型中,设定各潜在震源区的强度是随机分布的,由于模型中各孕震体的强度不均匀,因而在给定边界条件后,模型系统出现应力分布不均匀的状态。在系统边界定常应变速率的作用下,模拟的孕震体在应力超过自身静摩擦强度后发生破裂。但由于模型系统是含有耦合作用的网络结构,各孕震体的应力可以相互传导和相互影响,因而在孕震系统应力场发展演化和震源孕育破裂之间呈现为相当复杂的图像。多数震源的破裂是应力增高造成的,但也有一些震源在高应力作用下没有发生破裂,另外有部分应力并不十分高的孕震体由于受周围地震应力调整的影响而发生破裂。以上结果为前兆异常与地     

Dynamic Evolution of Precursory Field and Its Relation With the Group of Strong Earthquakes

Spatial scanning is done for two regions in Chinese Mainland,where displayed a denseprecursory network during 1994～1998.The two regions are the mid-southern segment of theNorth-south seismic belt(20°～35°N,95°～110°E)and North China(36°～42°N,110°～120°E).We took 0.5°×0.5°as a spatial window with a step of 0.25°and 4 months as atemporal window with a step of 1 month.For the two regions,the anomaly density is scannedfrom 1994 and 1995 respectively in the two regions.The precursory anomalies are all fromthe Division of Seismic Trend in China and the Division of Seismic Trend in the Capital Area,Center for Analysis and Prediction,China Seismological Bureau.A seismogenic tectonicmodel is introduced to explain the scanning results.In the model,the frictional strength ofthe focal sources is distributed randomly.After the boundary plate motion rate and all othergeological parameters are given,the stress of the sources in the system changesinhomogenously due to the variation of the frictional streng     

云南中强震的水氡前兆异常特征

2001年云南澜沧5.0、施甸5.2,5.9,5.3、宁蒗5.8、楚雄5.3和江川5.1级地震前，云南49项水氡前兆中的一些台站出现突出的异常。研究发现，根据这些异常项的异常特征和空间分布特征及历史震例，可对这几次地震预报的三要素，尤其是地点和时间做出较好的判断。     

基于岩石声发射实验结果探讨地震活动状态变化的预测意义

根据室内岩石破裂实验声发射结果, 论证了地震非均匀度参数(GL值)在识别声发射活动状态变化的有效性, 同时也考察了状态变化参量计算结果的稳定性。 在此基础上, 借用前苏联地震学家Mjachkin等提出的地震孕育至发生的雪崩不稳定裂隙形成模式, 探讨了部分强地震孕育过程中, 区域地震活动由无序到有序状态变化的可能形成机理。 利用地震状态参数, 即地震非均匀度(GL值)尝试开展了对我国未来一个时期地震大形势的定量分析预测。     

中强地震前地磁极化异常特征及其与后续地震的关系

基于国家地磁台网中心的地磁秒采样数据,采用地磁垂直强度极化法,计算了2019年1月1日至2020年7月31日全国各地磁台站的极化值,对2019年中国大陆西部(110°E以西)极化异常进行了分析,研究了2020年于田M_S6.4等中强地震前地磁极化异常变化特征及其与后续地震的关系。研究发现:(1)地磁极化异常具有空间成组特征,即空间上多个地区可以同时出现地磁极化异常;地磁极化异常一般被认为是震前震源区发生断层蠕动或岩石破裂导致的电磁辐射,这意味着震前可能会有多个地区同时发生断层蠕动或岩石破裂,这一现象似乎表明有一个"力源"在主导多区域同时发生断层蠕动或岩石破裂。(2)地磁极化异常的后续地震具有成组特征,即一个地区出现极化异常后可能发生多次地震。该现象对日常会商分析具有重要参考意义,即此类异常发生预期地震后可能还会有类似地震的发生。(3)以往的一些研究认为地磁极化异常一般在震前2—3个月出现,但本研究发现极化异常出现后10个月在异常区域仍然会发生地震,这表明电磁辐射异常可能不仅仅是短临异常,还可能具有中期指示意义,即断层蠕动或岩石破裂发生时间可能在震前近1年左右便已开始...     

中国大陆7级大地震强余震震级和空间分布特征

本文研究了中国大陆1966年以来15次7.0～7.9级地震序列强余震空间分布和震级分布特征。 研究结果表明: ① 强余震与主震震级差(ΔM)与频度(N)的统计关系服从指数分布, 统计得到了全部序列平均B值为0.72, 12个走滑型地震序列平均B值为0.73; ② 走滑型地震序列强余震优势分布范围是5~59 km, 非走滑型序列优势分布为10~29 km, 并且强余震与主震震中距离服从正态分布。     

Temporo-spatial Characteristics of Swarm Distribution before Two MS6.0 Earthquakes in the Tianshan Area, China and Their Application to Earthquake Prediction

The Nilka-Gongliu earthquake with M_S6.0 and Xinyuan-Hejing earthquake with M_S6. 6 successively occurred in Xinjiang on November 1,2011 and June 30,2012. Massive swarm activity was observed in a large area around the main shock epicenters before the two strong earthquakes. Main features are as follows:(1) The swarm activities not only increased significantly in number of earthquakes,but also presented a distinct swarm gap in spatial distribution,and the epicenters of the following strong earthquakes were all located in the swarm gap.(2) The duration of the swarm gap lasted longer,for 2-3 years.(3) The time-history characteristics of the swarms cumulative frequency indicates that swarm activity was quieter a few months before the main shocks. Finally,we discuss the results as well as the issues of their application in earthquake prediction.     

福建台网“九五”“十五”观测系统测定震级对比研究

运用福建台网“九五”“十五”两套观测系统的资料,对两套系统测定的震级及“十五”系统测定的速度震级和仿真震级进行对比分析,得出,两套系统的震级偏差基本在观测规范允许范围之内;“十五”系统的速度震级与仿真震级偏差分布不集中,一致性较差;为“九五”与“十五”系统过渡提供参考依据。     

A review of rock mechanics studies in the United States pertinent to earthquake prediction

Premonitory phenomena such as dilatancy, creep, acoustic emission, and changes in seismic velocity and attenuation, electrical resistivity, magnetic moment, and gas emission, which occur before fracture of initially intact rock and before stick-slip on faults or between finely ground surfaces of rock, have been reviewed and discussed in relation to earthquake prediction. This review is restricted to the results of laboratory experiments that have been carried out in the United States of America.     

Precursory seismic quiescence: A preliminary assessment of the hypothesis

Numerous cases of precursory seismic quiescence have been reported in recent years. Some investigators have interpreted these observations as evidence that seismic quiescence is a somewhat reliable precursor to moderate or large earthquakes. However, because failures of the pattern to predict earthquakes may not, in general, be reported, and because numerous earthquakes are not preceded by quiescence, the validity and reliability of the quiescence precursor have not been established.We have analyzed the seismicity rate prior to, and in the source region of, 37 shallow earthquakes (M 5.3–7.0) in central California and Japan for patterns of rate fluctuation, especially precursory quiescence. Nonuniformity in rate for these pre-mainshock sequences is relatively high, and numerous intervals with significant (p<0.10) extrema in rate are observed in some of the sequences. In other sequences, however, the rate remains within normal limits up to the time of the mainshock. Overall, in terms of an observational basis for intermediate-term earthquake prediction, no evidence is found in the cases studied for a systematic, widespread or reliable pattern of quiescence prior to the mainshocks.In earthquake sequences comprising full seismic cycles for 5 sets of (M 3.7–5.1) repeat earthquakes on the San Andreas fault near Bear Valley, California, the seismicity rates are found to be uniform. A composite of the estimated rate fluctuations for the sequences, normalized to the length of the seismic cycle, reveals a weak pattern of a low rate in the first third of the cycle, and a high rate in the last few months. While these observations are qualitative, they may represent weak expressions of physical processes occurring in the source region over the seismic cycle.Re-examination of seismicity rate fluctuations in volumes along the creeping section of the San Andreas fault specified by Wyss and Burford (1985) qualitatively confirms the existence of low-rate intervals in volumes 361, 386, 382, 372 and 401. However, only the quiescence in volume 386 is found by the present study to be statistically significant.     

岩石非均匀性对地震活动状态影响的数值模拟研究

地震的孕育、发生与震源位置及其岩石力学性质有着密切的联系,本文借助数值模拟方法研究了岩石均质度在岩样变形直至破裂过程中对声发射事件活动状态的影响。数值模拟结果表明,岩石非均匀性对岩样声发射活动状态的时间演化过程有着较大影响,所得结论进一步支持了分区研究强地震前兆异常的必要性。     

再论地震大小的度量

本文是针对迄今为止中国在地震大小的度量方面存在的主要问题撰写的。在阐明地震大小物理含义的基础上,首先指出由震源辐射能量E_R出发所定义的传统震级标度M_L,m_b(m_B),M_S都存在着"以偏概全","震级饱和"和M_L震级标度的"局限性",以及不同标度的震级之间不可相互换算等问题。而由在地震破裂的整个过程中震源区"等效力"所做的功出发导出的地震矩M₀是对地震大小最科学的度量。为继续应用"震级"这一术语来描述地震的大小,由M₀所定义的矩震级标度M_W不仅克服了传统震级标度存在的各种问题,而且适用对不同大小、不同震中距、不同震源深度地震大小的度量。因此近20年已被国际地震学界普遍采用。最后强调推进地震大小的度量与国际接轨是推进中国地震科技现代化必须解决的重要基础性工作,不仅有利于国际地震科技交流合作,而且有助于增强防震减灾工作的科学性。     

震级新国标实施前后中强浅源地震速报震级差异的分析对比

目前震级新国标拟在中国地震震级测定中开始使用。 为系统评估震级新国标对中强浅源地震的速报震级影响, 基于2001—2017年中国大陆发布的5级以上浅源地震速报目录, 本文系统分析了新国标宽频带面波震级与原速报震级的差异, 并与国外面波震级结果以及国、 内外矩震级的结果进行了对比研究。 结果表明: 采用新国标, 国内、 外面波震级对6级以上地震测定结果基本一致, 但5、 6级以上地震的频次分别为原来的80%、 60%左右, 而6.5级以上地震频次差异不大。 国内、 外矩震级测定结果比较一致, 由于国际上目前采用矩震级发布, 而矩震级与面波震级之间存在系统偏差, 因此, 为保持与国际结果一致, 应加快矩震级在地震速报中的应用, 这可能会导致6、 7级地震频次进一步降低。 由于速报震级在实际工作中既有可能采用面波震级, 也有可能采用矩震级, 或两者的结合; 因此, 速报震级仅用于地震信息发布、 地震应急、 科普宣传等社会应用, 如果使用震级进行科学研究、 地震活动性统计等专业应用研究, 最好统一使用一种标度, 即面波震级或矩震级。     

Study on the Relation Between the Suddenly Changed Sequence of Earth Resistivity and Earthquakes

Based on fracture mechanics,a large amount of practically observed data are analyzed in this paper,and it is disclosed that the earth resistivity stations around the epicenter of a strong event have shown seismically an anomalous earth resistivity suddenly changed sequence.The maximum sudden change in the sequence tends to shift backward with the increase of epicentral distance,while it shifts forward with the increase of the magnitude of the earthquake.Also,the maximum sudden change expands from the epicenter to the peripheral areas.The result of study has shown that the obviousness degree of the anomalies is related to the measuring direction.The lithological contrast around the stations also influences the time of the anomaly occurrence.The maximum sudden change of the sequence will be advanced while the rock resistance to pressure is not good.On the basis of these findings,the authors propose that it might be possible to predict the three key elements of forthcoming earthquakes by using the suddenly     

Power Law Distribution of Broadband Radiated Energy for Global Seismicity

The claim that there exists a transition of earthquake energy distribution between small and large earthquakes is checked using broadband radiated energy of earthquakes for global seismicity. Scattering of the relation between the magnitude and the broadband radiated energy makes it necessary to use the energy data directly. Rank-ordering statistics is applied to enhance the resolution in retrieving the power law distribution with undersampled data, namely, a few tens of events. Seen in the perspective of broadband radiated energy with higher resolution, there is no evidence for the kink in the frequency-energy distribution for large and small earthquakes. Instead, a single power law can well explain the data. For earthquakes with energy larger than 10~(14) J, we find that the number N of events with energy E depends on E via N ∝ E-B, with the scaling constant B = 0.64 ± 0.04, corresponding to b = 0.95± 0.06.     

The Effect of Regional Borders when Using the Gutenberg-Richter Model, Case Study: Western Anatolia

A probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) for Western Anatolia is presented using the Gutenberg-Richter (G-R) frequency-magnitude relation. Since the modeling is sensitive to the location of seismotectonics boundaries, to use the information content of the observed earthquake data, as a general rule the borders of the affected area are extended. In this study, the effect of the region’s definition on the G-R model is debated on the Western Anatolian region, which is one of the most seismically active and rapidly deforming regions of the world throughout the ages. Calculations are carried out for two subregions and one combined region as a whole using the seismic catalog from 1900 to 2005. The data sets are determined by the region’s borders with the parameters computed according to these data sets by the least-squares and maximum likelihood methods, and then future predictions are estimated via these parameters. Comparing the results with historical earthquake records, most appropriate regional borders for Western Anatolia are defined, and for this new region G-R model parameters are obtained.     

中国大陆地区强震的逆向追踪方法研究

强震发生前, 震源附近的地震活动往往会呈现出一些空间和时间的异常特征, 分析和提取这些异常特征的方法较多。 本文采用了与常规强震预测方法迥异的地震预测方法地震活动反向追踪法(Reverse Tracing of Precursors, RTP), 对中国大陆近30年来的几个M_S≥7.5大震(含2008年5月12日汶川M_S8.0地震)进行了探索性的回溯研究。 结果表明, 该方法在中国大陆大震预测方面有一定的适用性, 并利用该方法对中国大陆地区的未来强震活动做了一定的预测。