Oslo: Past,present, future

The article develops a theme from Sund & Isachsen (1942) dealing with Oslo's urban expansion. The author discusses population growth rates by zone and district of the expanding agglomeration from the 1920's up to the present. The figures demonstrate an almost classical outward expansion with a corresponding typical decrease in the city proper and the inner zone. The changing location of large offices and factories is indicated. An attempt is made to break down employment figures to show quaternary activities. The recent changes in planning attitudes are briefly discussed, and Oslo of the future envisaged.     

Ecological-hydrological processes in arid environment: Past,present and future

Ecohydrology, aiming to study the interactions between terrestrial ecological systems and hydrological cycles as well as their impacts on water management, has been an emerging interdisciplinary research field since the 20th century. It hosts both natural and human regulated processes that are potentially coupled in complex ways. Understanding the ecological-hydrological processes, the fundamental mechanisms and the connections between them is critical since these processes are not isolated but integrated to impact basin- scale hydrological and biogeochemical functioning of a larger river system, especially in arid environment where water resources are considered to be the source of life. Thus, research on ecological-hydrological processes in arid environment is not only a scientific focus area but also important to sustainable development. Research projects and initiatives involved in observation, measurement, modeling and data assimilation have been well-developed for those purposes over the past 20 years. This review summarizes the historical development of ecohydrology science in China and the state-of-the-art tools available in the research framework. Five grand scientific challenges are listed as prospects and exciting opportunities for the scientific community. To advance the current ecological-hydrological processes research, scientists from multidisciplinary backgrounds (such as geography, geology, geomorphology, hydrology, geochemistry and ecology), need to unite to tackle the many open problems in new dimensions.     

Climate in the Monte Desert: Past trends,present conditions,and future projections

This paper documents the main features of climate and climate variability across the Monte Desert for the Last Glacial Maximum, the Glacial–Interglacial transition, and the Holocene on the basis of proxy records and for the 20th century using instrumental observations. The climate in the Monte is determined by interactions between regional physiography and atmospheric circulation in the 25–45°S sectors of South America. Although arid and semi-arid conditions prevail across the Monte, its large latitudinal extent and complex topography introduce many particularities at local scales. Paleoclimatic records and model simulations of past climates suggest significant variations in the atmospheric circulation, temperature and rainfall patterns since the Last Glacial Maximum. High-resolution proxy records east of the Andes support the existence of complex climatic patterns with similar temperature changes across the whole region but opposite precipitation variations between subtropical and mid-latitude sectors in the Monte during the past millennium.The present-day climate is depicted in terms of the space and time variability of the near-surface temperature, rainfall and tropospheric wind patterns. Uneven temperature trends over the Monte were recorded for two separate (1920–44 and 1977–2001) global warming periods in the 20th century. Additional warming evidence in the region is provided by extreme temperature records. The non-homogeneous regional pattern of precipitation shows a positive long-term increase between 30 and 40°S during the interval 1985–2001. Ensemble of climate experiments accomplished with general circulation models provide the most likely changes in temperature and rainfall to occur by the end of this century in relation to present climate. Temperature increases, larger in summer than in winter, will be concurrent with more abundant precipitations in summer, but almost no changes or even small reductions in winter across the Monte.     

The past,present, and future of population geography in China: Progress,challenges and opportunities

Population geography (PopGeo), although a sub-discipline of human geography, should have been well developed in China in light of its national population size and unique demographic issues, regional socio-economic development, and biophysical differences. Yet it typically lags behind the development of its parent disciplines, especially demography and geography. Specifically, PopGeo in Chinese higher education is still at a low level in terms of the three major aspects of disciplinary development: academic majors for higher education, academic conferences, and journals. The research content of PopGeo in China has focused on the growth, composition, change, distribution, and carrying capacity of population at the meso- and macro-spatial scales. As the most populated country in the world, questions about how and why the population changes, where the population settles and migrates to, its maximum carrying capacity, and how to guide sound development of population matter to society and the economy, are always important topics in the PopGeo studies in China. In contrast, some new population phenomena such as human space–time behaviors (commuting, remittances, and friends’ interaction), popular in the scientific community abroad, are not fully investigated at the micro-level. Presently, PopGeo in China may face both challenges and opportunities because of the adjustment of fertility policies and implementation of national new urbanization plans at the national level. It is this occasion that calls for a state-of-the-art review of the development of PopGeo since the 1980s, the turning point of an increasing number of PopGeo studies in China. We aim to reveal the current status of PopGeo in China to the world, and shed light on its further study.     

Past imperfect, future tense: Archaeology and development

Archaeological sites are valuable nonrenewable resources and they are being destroyed rapidly by modern development projects of all kinds, worldwide. The contextual information in these sites could tell surprising and valuable stories of human behavior over an enormous sweep of time and might contribute to a better future. Archaeologists’ experience of site destruction and their recent efforts to work with local communities toward alternatives to site destruction may offer examples for others concerned with the treatment of nonrenewable resources     

Land-use structure and physical,socio-economic impacts in China

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Land changes in Slovakia: Past processes and future directions

The aim of this study is to bring a unique overview of past, current and plausible future land use development in Slovakia. The study assessed land change processes and their spatial determinants related to the most significant socio-political periods that have shaped the former socialist country over the past 30 years, namely, socialism (1980–1990), postsocialism (1990–2000), EU accession (2000–2006), EU membership (2006–2012). Using boosted regression trees, the impact of different biophysical, socioeconomic, policy and distance-based factors was evaluated on land transitions, categorised as urbanisation, agricultural intensification and extensification, afforestation, deforestation and forest disturbance (natural and management-induced). Results show significant shifts in the landscape management associated with the institutional changes, especially in the postsocialist period.Agricultural intensification, which dominated the socialist period, was in subsequent periods substituted by afforestation and agricultural extensification. High relative annual rates of forest disturbance have dominated land-use change over the past 30 years, while deforestation was a minor land-use change during the late socialist period. Urbanisation has played a significant role and changed considerably through the studied periods: high urbanisation rates under socialism, a massive decline in the postsocialism and EU accession periods and increasingly high urbanisation rates during the EU membership period.Taking into account national and international (EU related) demands, we assessed land use development for 2040 within five different future land use scenarios. These scenarios were characterised as either extensions of current development trends, or as developments along axes that target globalisation or regionalisation, and more or less intervention. Results show that afforestation is by far the land-change process that will have the greatest impact on future Slovakian landscapes, mostly in rural areas. Among changes in agriculture, all scenarios uniformly suggest that extensification will exceed intensification mostly at the cost of arable land. In addition, urban areas will expand at the expense of arable land, particularly in the accessible city hinterlands.     

Studies on eco-environmental change in source regions of the Yangtze and Yellow Rivers of China:present and future

The source regions of the Yangtze and Yellow Rivers are important in the field of eco-environmental change research in China because of its distinct alpine ecosystem and cryosphere environment. At present, there are three different concepts on the extent of source areas of the Yangtze and Yellow Rivers: hydrological, geographical, and eco-environmental. Over the past decades, annual average air temperature has warmed significantly; moreover, the temperature rise rate increases notably with increase of time of the data series. Annual precipitation has no obvious increase or decrease trend, and the climate has become warm and dry in the source regions. As a result, the cryosphere in the regions has shrunk significantly since 1960 s. A warm and dry climate and changing cryosphere together induced a substantial declination of alpine wetlands, marked decrease in river runoff, significant degradation of alpine grassland, and a reduction of engineering stability.The ecological environment, however, has a tendency for restoration in the regions because the climate has become gradually warm and wet since 2000. Thus, studies on eco-environmental change is transforming from a single element to multidisciplinary integration. Climate change-cryopshere change-physical and socioeconomic impacts/risk-adaptation constitute a chain of multidisciplinary integration research.     

Reindeer husbandry/hunting in Russia in the past, present and future

The dynamic state of reindeer husbandry in northern Russia during the 20th century was studied as a basis for predicting the consequences of the current drastic changes taking place there. Similar forms and methods of reindeer husbandry were used with different frequencies and effectiveness throughout the century. In the future reindeer husbandry will conform to market requirements, landscape features and national traditions. In some areas, the more sophisticated methods of management developed in conjunction with large-scale, highly productive reindeer husbanry, could be lost and a subsistence economy, including hunting, could predominate.     

Past and future climate variations in the Norwegian Arctic: overview and novel analyses

Sparse stations and serious measuring problems hamper analyses of climatic conditions in the Arctic. This paper presents a discussion of measuring problems in the Arctic and gives an overview of observed past and projected future climate variations in Svalbard and Jan Mayen. Novel analyses of temperature conditions during precipitation and trends in fractions of solid/liquid precipitation at the Arctic weather stations are also outlined. Analyses based on combined and homogenized series from the regular weather stations in the region indicate that the measured annual precipitation has increased by more than 2.5% per decade since the measurements started in the beginning of the 20th century. The annual temperature has increased in Svalbard and Jan Mayen during the latest decades, but the present level is still lower than in the 1930s. Downscaled scenarios for Svalbard Airport indicate a further increase in temperature and precipitation. Analyses based on observations of precipitation types at the regular weather stations demonstrate that the annual fraction of solid precipitation has decreased at all stations during the latest decades. The reduced fraction of solid precipitation implies that the undercatch of the precipitation gauges is reduced. Consequently, part of the observed increase in the annual precipitation is fictitious and is due to a larger part of the "true" precipitation being caught by the gauges. With continued warming in the region, this virtual increase will be measured in addition to an eventual real increase.     

民勤土地利用格局时空变化研究

应用1987年和2010年两期TM遥感数据,在GIS技术的支撑下,解译提取民勤县土地利用类型空间分布信息,用FRAGSTATS3.3软件计算斑块类型和景观两个层次的7个景观格局指数,分析民勤县土地利用类型空间转化特点和质心转移趋势。结果表明：（1）23年间,民勤县土地利用类型转换明显,戈壁、耕地面积增加,草地面积减少,林地部分退化。（2）土地类型多样性和均匀度减小、聚集度增加,表明人类活动对民勤县土地利用影响大,土地利用结构受个别土地类型影响程度加深、稳定性下降。（3）民勤县土地利用质心整体向西南方向偏移,沙漠、耕地质心向西南方向偏移明显,沙进人退的趋势显著。     

Past and present permafrost as an indicator of climate change

The permafrost history of the high northern latitudes over the last two million years indicates that perennially frozen ground formed and thawed repeatedly, probably in close synchronicity with the climate changes that led to the expansion and subsequent shrinkage of continental ice sheets. The early stages of the Pleistocene are the least known and the changes that occurred in the Late Pleistocene and early Holocene are the best known.
Evidence that permafrost is degrading in response to the current global warming trend is difficult to ascertain. The clearest signals are probably provided by changes in permafrost distribution in the sub-Arctic regions. at the extreme southern fringes of the discontinuous permafrost zone.     

Development,Land-use Change and Rural Resettlement Capacity: a case study of the Three Gorges Project,China

Resettlement of people displaced by dam projects is an important development issue. Land lost due to the Three Gorges reservoir inundation and the adjustment of land-use policy in China resulted in land-use changes, and impacted on the human carrying capacity of the land and the land availability for resettlement. The Chinese government has implemented a ‘development-oriented resettlement’ policy and a ‘near resettlement’ approach to relocating rural dwellers affected by the Three Gorges Project (TGP). Based on recent land-use survey and population data of the case study area and using GIS-based multi-criteria analysis in land-use planning, this study analyses the characteristics and changes of land use in both the inundation and resettlement areas. Undeveloped land is scarce in both areas. The non-flooded cultivated land is distributed mainly on steep slopes (over 25 degrees). There is a discrepancy between the amount of land required by those being resettled and what is available in the designated resettlement communities. This study suggests that resettlement should consider the human carrying capacity of the land and, from a community standpoint, sheds light on the interplay between land-use planning and resettlement, and provides constructive suggestions for TGP resettlement strategies.     

Land-use development in Liaocheng prefecture of China after 1949

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Community resilience,natural hazards,and climate change: Is the present a prologue to the future?

ABSTRACT

The nexus of natural hazards, climate change, and community resilience poses both conceptual and methodological challenges. One key consideration is the underlying notion of dynamic change or transformation in the systems that affect community resilience—social systems, natural systems, technological systems—and the degree to which the interdependencies influence who is resilient, to what, where, and to whom. The article examines community resilience from the broad perspective of affluent societies and illustrates the considerable variability in both the temporal and spatial nature of community resilience to natural hazards in the short term, and climate changes in the longer term, especially in more affluent societies. The author finds that, given the rapidity of environmental, social, economic, political, technological, and cultural changes, present circumstances and remedies may not be adequate predictors or precursors of future conditions. She concludes that the challenges associated with community resilience, natural hazards, and climate change require transformational thinking and action if achievements are to be made in terms of significant disaster risk reduction and any semblance of a sustainable future when extreme weather events will be the norm, not the exception.     

A review of the ecohydrology discipline: Progress,challenges, and future directions in China

In recent decades,the ecohydrology discipline was developed to provide theoretical and technical foundations for the protection and restoration of complex ecological systems(e.g.,mountains,rivers,forests,farmlands,and lakes),and to further ecological civilization construction and green development in China.In this study,the progress and challenges of the ecohydrology discipline are elaborated,and the future development directions are pro-posed according to international scientific frontiers and national ecological civilization con-struction demands.Overall,the main discipline directions are to develop new ecohydrological monitoring methods,to comprehensively understand ecohydrological mechanisms and their basic theories,to promote integration of multi-scale and multi-variable models by considering both terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems,and to encourage multidisciplinary integration,par-ticularly with the social sciences.Furthermore,the future research interests in China include:combining multi-source information,constructing comprehensive monitoring systems,study-ing spatiotemporal patterns of key ecohydrological variables and their variation characteris-tics,developing integrated models of ecological,hydrological,and economic processes,es-timating their uncertainty;and conducting interdisciplinary studies that include the natural and social sciences.The application prospects in China are further explored for a variety of eco-systems,including forests,grasslands,rivers,lakes,wetlands,farmlands,and cities.This study will provide a reference to support the development of the ecohydrology discipline in China,and will provide a solid theoretical and technical foundation for the implementation of national ecological civilization construction.     

南方小型矿业城镇土地生态敏感性评价——以湖南省桂阳县为例

从分析桂阳县土地利用现状入手,结合其自然地理条件和社会经济等状况,选取对区域土地利用影响较大的地质灾害、水环境、土壤侵蚀和生境等因素进行单因子生态敏感性分析,在GIS技术支持下运用多因子加权求和模型,对桂阳县土地生态敏感性进行综合评价,按生态敏感性高低将研究区划分为生态敏感区、生态弱敏感区和生态不敏感区。评价结果表明,生态敏感区和弱敏感区各占研究区的28.7﹪和41.6﹪,说明研究区土地生态敏感性总体上较高,生态风险较大。最后,有针对性地提出桂阳县土地可持续利用建议,为其土地生态环境保护和产业经济布局提供参考。     

四川盆地紫色丘陵区土地利用类型对土壤理化性质的影响

为了提供土地利用结构调整的科学依据,调查和测试了四川盆地紫色丘陵区南充和盐亭两个典型小流域内草地、林地和耕地的土壤理化性质,结果表明：不同土地利用对土壤理化性质的影响是明显的。林／草地较耕地能显著增加(约1倍)土壤有机质含量。研究结果还揭示了耕地的长期耕种,使其土壤理化性质和功能退化,如土壤抗蚀性和持水性能降低。因此,增加耕地的有机肥投入是耕地可持续发展的重要举措。