基于面平均雨量误差修正的实时洪水预报修正方法

空间集总式水文模型的洪水预报精度会受到面平均雨量估计误差的严重影响.点雨量监测值的误差类型、误差大小以及流域的雨量站点密度和站点的空间分布都会影响到面平均雨量的计算.为提高实时洪水预报精度,本文提出了一种基于降雨系统响应曲线洪水预报误差修正方法.通过此方法估计降雨输入项的误差,从而提高洪水预报精度.此方法将水文模型做为输入和输出之间的响应系统,用实测流量和计算流量之间的差值做为信息,通过降雨系统响应曲线,使用最小二乘估计原理,对面平均雨量进行修正,再用修正后的面平均雨量重新计算出流过程.将此修正方法结合新安江模型使用理想案例进行检验,并应用于王家坝流域的16场历史洪水以及此流域不同雨量站密度的情况下,结果证明均有明显修正效果,且在雨量站密度较低时修正效果更加明显.该方法是一种结构简单且不增加模型参数和复杂度的实时洪水修正的新方法.     

基于微分响应的流域产流分单元修正方法

为考虑洪水预报误差的空间变化,提出一种基于微分响应的流域产流分单元修正方法.该方法建立了各单元流域产流与流域出口流量之间的微分响应关系,采用正则化最小二乘法结合逐步迫近进行反演求解,将产流误差估计量分配给相应单元流域实现流域产流分单元修正.将构建的方法应用于大坡岭流域和七里街流域进行新安江模型产流修正,比较分析了流域产流分单元修正、流域面平均产流修正和自回归修正的效果.结果表明：流域产流分单元修正效果优于流域面平均产流修正;随着预见期的增大,产流微分响应修正效果优于自回归修正.该方法通过汇流系统将流域出口断面流量信息进行分解用于修正各单元流域产流,有利于提高实时洪水预报精度.     

利用回归修正方法改善区域耦合模式中的ENSO模拟

通过对数值实验的比较和分析, 提出了一种旨在改善区域耦合模式中ENSO模拟的回归修正方法. 该方法主要用于修正耦合模式中海气间交换的通量. 具体步骤如下: 首先, 利用多年的观测资料计算得到驱动海洋模式所需的动量及热量通量, 驱动海洋模式进行长期积分; 其次, 用海洋模式模拟的SST作为大气模式的边界条件, 相应积分大气模式; 再利用大气模式模拟变量和相应观测资料建立线性关系, 通过线性拟合得到修正系数; 最后, 利用随时间和空间变化的回归修正系数修正计算动量及热量通量的变量, 并用修正后的变量计算海气交换通量, 进行耦合模式积分. 同时利用一个热带太平洋-全球大气耦合模式对该方案及常用的“距平耦合”方案进行了检验. 结果表明, 该方案优于“距平耦合”方案, 不仅可以更好的控制气候“漂移”现象, 而且, 能够改善区域耦合模式在热带太平洋区域的ENSO模拟.     

动态预报方法在地震预报中的应用

应用一种动态系统预报方法来进行地震预报的研究，该方法的长处在于时变系统预报，当进行这类预报时，首先是对时变参数进行预报，在此基础上再对系统进行预报。同时，这方法还可容纳对输出有不同延迟时间的输入量，这对各种前兆在时间轴分布的不均一特征，是一种较为合理的模型方法，本文计算了若干种预报模型，并对它们的结果进行了分析与讨论。     

用格子玻尔兹曼方法模拟非均匀介质中的电场响应

介绍了用格子玻尔兹曼方法模拟非均匀介质中的电场响应的数值模拟方法. 格子玻尔兹曼方法是从微观领域出发进行数值计算的一种全新的正演模拟方法;从玻尔兹曼碰撞模型出发,利用泰勒展开和Chapman Enskog展开,在基本力学守恒条件和约束条件的限制下,导出了电场响应的扩散方程,得到了局部平衡分布函数的表达式,给出了若干正演模拟的结果;其结果表明,利用这种方法进行非均匀介质中的电场响应正演模拟具有灵活、方便和简单等优点.     

高性能集群系统在地震波数值模拟中的应用

随着地震领域研究工作不断深入,为了进行大规模信息处理和求解复杂模型,研究人员对具有大规模计算能力的并行计算平台需求已十分迫切。本文详细介绍了在Linux平台下,利用开源软件OSCAR(Open Source Cluster Application Resources)搭建高性能计算集群系统的方法;测试表明,构建的系统具有运行稳定,节点增减便利,提交、管理作业简单,性能参数可监控等诸多优点。该系统不仅提供了可靠的高性能计算平台,还使得进一步开发和应用国内外同行基于最新研究成果发布的各种大型并行计算开源程序变得简单方便,如加州理工学院等机构编写的基于谱单元法的大型盆地内场地地震动数值模拟程序SPECFEM3D。     

基于土壤墒情抗差的降雨径流预报模型——设计与实验流域应用

本文旨在将实时监测得到的土壤墒情转化为流域水文模型可以直接使用的土壤含水量,论证将实时土壤墒情资料用于实时预报的可行性;利用实时监测土壤墒情,改进传统的模型结构,设计基于实测土壤墒情的降雨径流水文预报模型.采用土壤含水量误差抗差估计技术以抵御观测资料粗差的影响,提高系统的稳定性;并在此基础上提出了土壤含水量系统响应修正方法,以提高模型计算精度.将该模型应用于实验流域——宝盖洞流域进行应用检验,洪水模拟合格率达到92.3%,整体模拟精度达到甲级.     

FBG传感系统在桩基侧向动力响应中的应用研究

液化土体中桩基侧向动力响应一直是目前岩土工程界和地震工程领域关注的热点研究问题之一.本文基于振动台实验,首次将光纤布拉格光栅(FBG)技术应用到液化土体桩基侧向动力响应分析方法中.实验结果表明:采用FBG传感系统可以测得桩身侧向动力响应,与传统电阻式应变片法相比简洁方便;FBG测量土体位移同样有效可行,可代替以往加速度积分求解土体位移;后处理得到的桩基侧向动力p-y滞回曲线能更好地反映桩土之间真实的动力本构关系,并与干砂动力p-y曲线相比,探讨两种不同场地条件下桩基侧向动力响应机制与p-y曲线的发展变化模式,为以后液化土中桩基侧向动力响应问题的研究奠定了理论基础.     

有限元数值模拟方法在华北地区地震地质研究中的应用进展

文中综述了近30年来有限元数值模拟方法在华北地区地震地质研究中的应用和发展情况,从华北地区地震地质数值模拟的有限元模型、有限元数值模拟所采用的实测资料以及模拟结果3方面进行了讨论,综合分析了华北地区有限元数值模拟从弹性到弹塑性、黏弹性和蠕变性,从二维线性到三维非线性,从连续变形到非连续变形,从个别资料的应用到GPS网络观测资料拟合的发展过程。简单阐述了华北地区有限元数值模拟工作的意义、存在问题和发展趋势     

标准年动态曲线形态分析方法在地震地下流体氡数据处理中的应用

台站观测数据主要包含台站固有信息与前兆信息,对前兆信息的准确识别和提取,是提高运用氡观测站开展地震活动监测预测有效性的关键环节。采用标准年动态曲线形态分析方法,对甘肃省内8个地下流体台站的水(气)氡异常信息进行统计分析,给出8个地下流体台站水(气)氡的前兆异常映震能力与空间响应特征。研究表明,标准年动态曲线形态分析方法是识别地下水(气)氡前兆短临异常信息的有效方法,有望在地下流体前兆数据分析及异常落实工作中发挥重要的技术支撑作用。     

Infiltration,runoff and sediment production in blanket peat catchments: implications of field rainfall simulation experiments

Blanket peat covers the headwaters of many major European rivers. Runoff production in upland blanket peat catchments is flashy with large flood peaks and short lag times; there is minimal baseflow. Little is known about the exact processes of infiltration and runoff generation within these upland headwaters. This paper presents results from a set of rainfall simulation experiments performed on the blanket peat moorland of the North Pennines, UK. Rainfall was simulated at low intensities (3–12 mm h^?1), typical of natural rainfall, on bare and vegetated peat surfaces. Runoff response shows that infiltration rate increases with rainfall intensity; the use of low‐intensity rainfall therefore allows a more realistic evaluation of infiltration rates and flow processes than previous studies. Overland flow is shown to be common on both vegetated and bare peat surfaces although surface cover does exert some control. Most runoff is produced within the top few centimetres of the peat and runoff response decreases rapidly with depth. Little vertical percolation takes place to depths greater than 10 cm owing to the saturation of the peat mass. This study provides evidence that the quickflow response of upland blanket peat catchments is a result of saturation‐excess overland flow generation. Rainfall–runoff response from small plots varies with season. Following warm, dry weather, rainfall tends to infiltrate more readily into blanket peat, not just initially but to the extent that steady‐state surface runoff rates are reduced and more flow takes place within the peat, albeit at shallow depth. Sediment erosion from bare peat plots tends to be supply limited. Seasonal weather conditions may affect this in that after a warm, dry spell, surface desiccation allows sediment erosion to become transport limited. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Evaluating water table response to rainfall events in a shallow aquifer and canal system

Shallow aquifers typically have greater hydrologic connectivity and response to recharge and changes in surface water management practices than deeper aquifers and are therefore often managed to reduce the risk of flooding. Quantification of the water table elevation response under different management scenarios provides valuable information in shallow aquifer systems to assess indirect influences of such modifications. The episodic master recession method was applied to the 15‐min water table elevation and NEXRAD rainfall data for 6 wells to identify water table response and individual rainfall events. The objectives of this study were to evaluate the effects of rainfall, water table elevation, canal stage, site‐specific characteristics, and canal structure modification/water management practice on the fluctuations in water table elevations using multiple/stepwise multiple linear regression techniques. With the modification of canal structure and operation adjustment, significant difference existed in water table response in the southern wells due to its relative downstream position regarding the general groundwater flow direction and the structural modification locations. On average, water table response height and flood risk were lower after than before the structure modification to canals. The effect of rainfall event size on the height of water table response was greater than the effect of antecedent water table elevation and canal stage on the height of water table response. Other factors including leakance of the canal bed sediment, specific yield, and rainfall on i  ? 1 day had significant effects on the height of water table response as well. Antecedent water table elevation and canal stage had greater and more linear effects on the height of water table response after the management changes to canals. Variation in water table response height/rainfall event size ratio was attributed to difference in S _y , antecedent soil water content, hydraulic gradient, rainfall size, and run‐off ratio. After the structure modification, water table response height/rainfall event size ratio demonstrated more linear and proportional relationship with antecedent water table elevation and canal stage.     

求解结构动力响应的小波分解法

本文用时程分析、振型迭加和小波变换3种方法,对一个10层建筑结构的地震动力响应进行了计算和比较,三者的结果完全一致,从而说明了线性时不变系统结构动力响应的唯一性定律是正确的。由于时程分析法可以用于非线性系统,而振型分解法只能用于线性系统,小波变换不但可以用于非线性,更可以用来进行多尺度分析的能谱计算,它能使抗震分析从传统的滞回耗能模型,提高到以结构损伤和延性评价的体系上来。     

Relative contributions of runoff and sediment from sources within a road prism and implications for total sediment delivery

This study examines runoff and sediment generation rates within the road prism on unsealed road segments in the Cuttagee Creek catchment near Bermagui in New South Wales, Australia. A large (600 m²) rainfall simulator was used to measure runoff and sediment yields from each of the potential sediment and runoff sources and pathways. These included the road surface, table‐drain, upslope contributing area and cutslope face, and the entire road segment as measured at the drain outlet. Experiments were conducted on two major types of road (ridge‐top and cut‐and‐fill) of varying traffic usage and maintenance standard for two 30‐minute simulations of increasing rainfall intensity. From the range of possible sources within the road prism, the road surface produced the dominant source of excess runoff and sediment at each site with limited contributions from the table‐drain, cutslope face or contributing hillslope. Sediment generation varied significantly with road usage and traffic intensity. Road usage was strongly related to the amount of loose available sediment as measured prior to the experiments. Table‐drains acted primarily as sediment traps during the low rainfall event but changes in sediment concentration within the drains were observed as runoff volumes increased during the higher rainfall event of 110 mm h^?1, releasing sediment previously stored in litter and organic dams. The experiments demonstrate the potential roles of various features of the road prism in the generation and movement of sediment and water. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

单自由度系统地震动力反应的实时计算方法

本文对计算单自由度系统地震动力反应的频域方法和时域方法进行了分析比较。说明了目前时域方法所存在的问题,指出寻找一种在计算精度上与频域方法等价的时域算法是一个值得研究的重要课题。据此,本文提出了一套能较精确模拟单自由度系统传递函数的时域方法。其计算格式采用具有较高计算效率的递归格式。理论分析与数值试验表明,该方法具有精度优于其他时域算法、速度快的特点,可应用于强震观测台网中强地震动参数的实时计算。     

Numerical simulation of reservoir sediment and effects on hydro‐dynamic response of arch dams

Based on the dynamic theory for saturated porous media by Biot (Journal of the Acoustical Society of America 1956; 28 : 168–178), a numerical model is presented to analyse the reflection behaviours of reservoir sediment and compared with those from the visco‐elastic model. It is concluded that the two models give very similar results of reflection coefficient α within the frequency range of interest. Then, using the two models, the change of the reflection coefficients α with various sedimentation parameters and excitation frequencies are studied in detail. The results are further used in the analysis of response functions of hydro‐dynamic pressures on, and structural displacements of the Xiang Hong Dian arch dam, for which some results from a field vibration test are available. It appears that effects of water compressibility with sediment reflection on hydro‐dynamic pressures and structural response are not significant for this specific case. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Numerical simulation of the impact of sediment supply and streamflow variations on channel grain sizes and Chinook salmon habitat in mountain drainage networks

Climatically driven changes in streamflow and hillslope sediment supply could potentially alter stream surface grain size distribution patterns and thereby impact habitat for a number of threatened and endangered in‐stream fish species. Relatively little is known about hydrograph (shape, peak flow) influence or the relative importance of chronic and episodic hillslope inputs on channel conditions. To better understand these external drivers, we calculated sediment routing through a gravel‐bedded river network using a one‐dimensional (1D) bedload transport model. We calculated changes in grain sizes and estimated Chinook salmon habitat suitability caused by a dry year and an extreme flood hydrograph, and chronic (diffusive, overland flow) or pulse (landslide, debris flow) hillslope sediment supplies. To obtain accurate channel conditions, a relatively high reference Shields stress, representative of steep mountain streams, was needed. An extreme event flood without any hillslope sediment inputs caused widespread bed coarsening and a decrease in aquatic habitat. Chronic sediment input combined with this hydrograph eliminated any changes in grain size and habitat, although when combined with a dry year flow, caused systematic bed fining. The influence of a given hydrograph therefore highly depends on the hillslope sediment supply. Regardless of the flow hydrograph or sediment pulse timing, grain size distribution or location, pulse sediment inputs did not cause widespread grain size changes despite being 100 times the total chronic input volume. Widespread and continuous hillslope sediment inputs may influence channel grain sizes and aquatic habitat more than a single discrete sediment pulse. Depending on the magnitudes of flow hydrograph and sediment supply alterations, climate change may induce no differences in grain sizes or very dramatic changes with significant consequences for long‐term sustainability. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Development of a portable field rainfall simulator for use in hillside vineyard runoff and erosion studies

An inexpensive, mobile field rainfall simulator and runoff plot frame were developed for use on hillside vineyards. The simulator framework and components were lightweight, readily available and easily manageable such that they can be handled by one person during transport, set–up and operation. The vineyard rainfall simulator was simpler than many of the machines in recent use for similar studies, yet offered equal or improved performance for small‐plot studies. The system developed consistent sized 2·58 mm raindrops at intensities ranging from 20 to 90 mm/h. The average distribution uniformity coefficient at an intensity of 60 mm/h was 91·7%, with a deviation of only 2·2%. This coefficient was similar to the range reported for a more complex rotating disk simulator, and was notably greater than that obtained for other similar devices. The system water capacity of 40 l allowed for 1‐h storm durations at 60 mm/h, usually sufficient time for commencement of erosion and runoff. The runoff plot frame was designed to be quickly installed, and to discourage sediment deposition in the routing of runoff to collect containers. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.