Contrasting the tropical responses to zonally asymmetric extratropical and tropical thermal forcing

The mechanism is investigated by which extratropical thermal forcing with a finite zonal extent produces global impact. The goal is to understand the near-global response to a weakened Atlantic meridional overturning circulation suggested by paleoclimate data and modeling studies. An atmospheric model coupled to an aquaplanet slab mixed layer ocean, in which the unperturbed climate is zonally symmetric, is perturbed by prescribing cooling of the mixed layer in the Northern Hemisphere and heating of equal magnitude in the Southern Hemisphere, over some finite range of longitudes. In the case of heating/cooling confined to the extratropics, the zonally asymmetric forcing is homogenized by midlatitude westerlies and extratropical eddies before passing on to the tropics, inducing a zonally symmetric tropical response. In addition, the zonal mean responses vary little as the zonal extent of the forced region is changed, holding the zonal mean heating fixed, implying little impact of stationary eddies on the zonal mean. In contrast, when the heating/cooling is confined to the tropics, the zonally asymmetric forcing produces a highly localized response with slight westward extension, due to advection by mean easterly trade winds. Regardless of the forcing location, neither the spatial structure nor the zonal mean responses are strongly affected by wind–evaporation–sea surface temperature feedback.     

Tropical/extratropical forcing on wintertime variability of the extratropical temperature and circulation

The secular trends and interannual variability of wintertime temperatures over northern extratropical lands and circulations over the northern hemisphere are examined using the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis from 1961 to 2010. A primitive equation dry atmospheric model, driven by time-averaged forcing in each winter diagnosed from the NCEP reanalysis, is then employed to investigate the influences of tropical and extratropical forcing on the temperature and circulation variability. The model has no topography and the forcing is thus model specific. The dynamic and thermodynamic maintenances of the circulation and temperature anomalies are also diagnosed. Distinct surface temperature trends over 1961–1990 and 1991–2010 are found over most of the extratropical lands. The trend is stronger in the last two decades than that before 1990, particularly over eastern Canadian Arctic, Greenland, and Asia. The exchange of midlatitude and polar air supports the temperature trends. Both the diagnosed extratropical and tropical forcings contribute to the temperature and circulation trends over 1961–1990, while the extratropical forcing dominates tropical forcing for the trends over 1991–2010. The contribution of the tropical forcing to the trends is sensitive to the period considered. The temperature and circulation responses to the diagnosed tropical and extratropical forcings are approximately additive and partially offsetting. Covariances between the interannual surface temperature and 500-hPa geopotential anomalies for the NCEP reanalysis from 1961 to 2010 are dominated by two leading modes associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Pacific-North American (PNA) teleconnection patterns. The diagnosed extratropical forcing accounts for a significant part of the NAO and PNA associated variability, including the interannual variability of stationary wave anomalies, as well as dynamically and thermodynamically synoptic eddy feedbacks over the North Atlantic and North Pacific. The tropical forcing contributes to the PNA related temperature and circulation variability, but has a small contribution to the NAO associated variability. Additionally, relative contributions of tropical Indian and Pacific forcings are also assessed.     

Impacts of shortwave radiation forcing on ENSO: a study with a coupled tropical ocean-atmosphere model

 We describe a coupled tropical ocean-atmosphere model that represents a new class of models that fill the gap between anomaly coupled models and fully coupled general circulation models. Both the atmosphere and ocean are described by two and half layer primitive equation models, which emphasize the physical processes in the oceanic mixed layer and atmospheric boundary layer. Ocean and atmosphere are coupled through both momentum and heat flux exchanges without explicit flux correction. The coupled model, driven by solar radiation, reproduces a realistic annual cycle and El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). In the presence of annual mean shortwave radiation forcing, the model exhibits an intrinsic mode of ENSO. The oscillation period depends on the mean forcing that determines the coupled mean state. A perpetual April (October) mean forcing prolongs (shortens) the oscillation period through weakening (enhancing) the mean upwelling and mean vertical temperature gradients. The annual cycle of the solar forcing is shown to have fundamental impacts on the behavior of ENSO cycles through establishing a coupled annual cycle that interacts with the ENSO mode. Due to the annual cycle solar forcing, the single spectral peak of the intrinsic ENSO mode becomes a double peak with a quasi-biennial and a low-frequency (4–5 years) component; the evolution of ENSO becomes phase-locked to the annual cycle; and the amplitude and frequency of ENSO become variable on an interdecadal time scale due to interactions of the mean state and the two ENSO components. The western Pacific monsoon (the annual shortwave radiation forcing in the western Pacific) is primarily responsible for the generation of the two ENSO components. The annual march of the eastern Pacific ITCZ tends to lock ENSO phases to the annual cycle. The model's deficiencies, limitations, and future work are also discussed. Received: 15 June 1999 / Accepted: 11 December 1999     

Wind forcing of the ocean and the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation

Wind forcing of the oceans is analysed for a millennium-length period of a simulation with a global coupled model. The time mean value of the zonal wind energy input to the oceans was found to be 0.97?TW, similar to other estimates, with maximum inputs in the Southern Ocean and Equatorial Pacific Ocean. The meridional wind energy input was also evaluated. The time series of the zonal wind energy input consisted of white noise, with marked multiannual and multidecadal variability, and had a range of 1.6 between minimum and maximum values. Seasonal variations in the wind energy input were most marked in the Pacific Ocean. Composites of the various climatic terms involved in the wind energy input, for maximum and minimum values of the input time series, identified distinct differences in anomaly values, particularly over the Southern Ocean. The temporal variability of the Pacific equatorial wind energy input was clearly identified with ENSO events. The model reproduced the observed structure of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation surprisingly well. The time series of this circulation exhibited interannual to centennial variability. Correlations, both instantaneous and lagged, failed to identify any meaningful relationship between the temporal variability of the circulation and the wind energy input to the Southern Ocean. The optimum correlation was found between time smoothed versions of the time series for this circulation and the heat input to the North Atlantic Ocean, implying, as noted elsewhere, that this heat input is the principal driver of the temporal variability of the circulation.     

The role of diabatic heating, torques and stabilities in forcing the radial-vertical circulation within cyclones part ii: case study of extratropical and tropical cyclones

Utilizing Eliassen’s concepts, the forcing of the isentropic azimuthally-averaged mass-weighted radial-vertical circulation by diabatic heating and torques within an extratropical cyclone and a typhoon was studied through nu-merical simulations based on the linear diagnostic equation derived previously. The structure of the forcing associated with diabatic heating and torques was determined from quasi-Lagrangian diagnostic analyses of actual case studies. The two cyclones studied were the Ohio extratropical cyclone of 25-27 January 1978 and typhoon Nancy of 18-23 September 1979. The Ohio cyclone, which formed over the Gulf Coast and moved through Ohio and eastern Michigan, was one of the most intense storms with blizzard conditions to ever occur in this region. Typhoon Nancy which occurred over the South China Sea during the FGGE year was selected since relatively high quality assimilated data were available. Within the Ohio cyclone, the dominant internal processes forcing the mean circulation with em-bedded relatively strong hydrodynamic stability were the pressure torque associated with baroclinic (asymmetric) structure and the horizontal eddy angular momentum transport associated with the typical S-shaped thermal and wind structures of self-development. Within typhoon Nancy, the dominant internal process forcing the mean circula-tion with embedded weak hydrodynamic stability was the latent heat release. This analysis shows that the simulated azimuthally-averaged mass-weighted radial motions within these two cy?clones agree quite well with the “observed” azimuthally-averaged mass-weighted radial motions. This isentropic nu?merical study also provides insight into the relatively important internal forcing processes and the trade off between forcing and stability within both extratropical and tropical cyclones.     

Response of the meridional overturning circulation to variable buoyancy forcing in a double hemisphere basin

We consider how a highly idealized double-hemisphere basin responds to a zonally constant restoring surface temperature profile that oscillates in time, with periods ranging from 0.5 to 32,000 years. In both hemispheres, the forcing is similar but can be either in phase or out of phase. The set-up is such that the Northern Hemisphere always produces the densest waters. The model’s meridional overturning circulation (MOC) exhibits a strong response in both hemispheres on decadal to multi-millennial timescales. The amplitude of the oscillations reaches up to 140% of the steady-state maximum MOC and exhibits resonance-like behaviour, with a maximum at centennial to millennial forcing periods. When the forcing is in phase between the Northern and Southern Hemispheres, there is a marked decrease in the amplitude of the MOC response as the forcing period is increased beyond the resonance period. In this case the resonance-like behaviour is identical to the one we found earlier in a single-hemisphere model and occurs for the same reasons. When the forcing is out of phase between the Northern and Southern Hemispheres, the amplitude of the MOC response is substantially greater for long forcing periods (millennial and longer), particularly in the Southern Hemisphere. This increased MOC amplitude occurs because for an out of phase forcing, either the northern or the southern deep water source is always active, leading to generally colder bottom waters and thus greater stratification in the opposite hemisphere. This increased stratification in turn stabilises the water column and thus reduces the strength of the weaker overturning cell. The interaction of the two hemispheres leads to response timescales of the deep ocean at half the forcing period. Our results suggest a possible explanation for the half-precessional time scale observed in the deep Atlantic Ocean palaeo-temperature record.     

The influence of tropical Pacific forcing on the Arctic Oscillation

The potential role of tropical Pacific forcing in driving the seasonal variability of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) is explored using both observational data and a simple general circulation model (SGCM). A lead–lag regression technique is first applied to the monthly averaged sea surface temperature (SST) and the AO index. The AO maximum is found to be related to a negative SST anomaly over the tropical Pacific three months earlier. A singular value decomposition (SVD) analysis is then performed on the tropical Pacific SST and the sea level pressure (SLP) over the Northern Hemisphere. An AO-like atmospheric pattern and its associated SST appear as the second pair of SVD modes. Ensemble integrations are carried out with the SGCM to test the atmospheric response to different tropical Pacific forcings. The atmospheric response to the linear fit of the model’s empirical forcing associated with the SST variability in the second SVD modes strongly projects onto the AO. Idealized thermal forcings are then designed based on the regression of the seasonally averaged tropical Pacific precipitation against the AO index. Results indicate that forcing anomalies over the western tropical Pacific are more effective in generating an AO-like response while those over the eastern tropical Pacific tend to produce a Pacific-North American (PNA)-like response. The physical mechanisms responsible for the energy transport from the tropical Pacific to the extratropical North Atlantic are investigated using wave activity flux and vorticity forcing formalisms. The energy from the western tropical Pacific forcing tends to propagate zonally to the North Atlantic because of the jet stream waveguide effect while the transport of the energy from the eastern tropical Pacific forcing mostly concentrates over the PNA area. The linearized SGCM results show that nonlinear processes are involved in the generation of the forced AO-like pattern.     

The effects of mechanical forcing on the mean meridional circulation and transfer properties of the atmosphere

Experiments using a quasi-geostrophic model and the ECMWF T21 spectral model with and without orography are performed to investigate the effects of mechanical forcing on the mean meridional circulation. Results show that mechanical forcing intensifies the horizontal poleward heat flux and redistributes the eddy angular momentum in the vertical, and that this changes significantly the intensity and location of the mean me-ridional circulation centres.It is shown how the mean meridional circulation is set up in such a way to satisfy both the dynamical and thermodynamical transport requirements of the model atmosphere. Whenever external forcing changes the eddy fluxes, the Coriolis torques from the upper horizontal branches of the mean meridional circulations change to balance the extra divergence of eddy momentum flux, and additional adiabatic heating is produced by the vertical branches of the toroids to balance the extra divergence of eddy heat flux. The mean meridional circula-tion is, therefore, confirmed to be very sensitive to mechanical forcing, and can be used as an efficient tool to quantitatively diagnose the adequacy of the orographic representation of numerical forecasting and general cir-culation models.     

热带气旋的温带变性过程对中纬度下游环流的影响

用WRF模式对变性台风(TC)马勒卡进行模拟,研究了在台风的变性过程(ET)的作用下中纬度下游环流特别是中纬度急流的发展,对台风的强度及其相对上游槽位置的敏感性。结果表明:TC与中纬度系统的相互作用会使得中纬度急流处的斜压不稳定性增大,急流增强。下游环流的发展对TC强度及TC与西风带上游槽的相对位置非常敏感。若TC增强,TC溢出流作用于中纬度急流,使之不稳定性增强,强度也增强,从而导致中纬度下游急流的强度、范围都增强,下游槽脊更显著。若台风减弱则反之。类似的,若TC靠近上游槽,其对中纬度急流的作用得到进一步加强和提前,急流的不稳定性增加,强度增强,下游的急流和槽脊也得到增强。若TC远离上游槽,则反之。     

The latent and sensible heat fluxes over the western tropical pacific and its relationship to ENSO

In this paper the Bulk Aerodynamic Formulas are used to compute the latent and sensible heat fluxes over the area 8oS-20oN, 130o-180oE for each month from January 1950 through December 1979 by using the data set of COADS supplied by NOAA of USA. The annual and monthly geographical distributions and the seasonal cycle of heat fluxes are carried out and a seasonal change of heat fluxes for ENSO year is also obtained by compositing individual ENSO year including 1951, 1953, 1957, 1963, 1965, 1969, 1972 and 1976. It is found that during ENSO episodes positive anomalies of heat fluxes appeared during the period of March to July and negative anomalies from August to March of the following year. The time series of sum of heat fluxes for March. April, May, June and July in each year from 1950 through 1979 had a significant link to the eastern tropical Pacific SST index (Wright, 1983). The correlation coefficient was 0.56. As it is found that in the latter half of each ENSO year (August-December) the fre-quency of typhoon formation in the area studied is less than normal, we suggest that the negative anomalies of heat fluxes during the same period be a mechanism for the decreased frequency of typhoon formation.     

中国大陆上变性加强热带气旋的诊断分析

利用1979-2007年日本气象厅热带气旋年鉴资料,对在中国大陆上发生变性的热带气旋进行了统计分析,结果表明:29 a间中国大陆上发生变性的热带气旋共有16个,占登陆中国热带气旋总数的8.56％,其中8个变性后加强.利用日本JRA-25再分析资料诊断分析了这8个变性加强热带气旋的湿位涡垂直分布特征以及影响热带气旋变性发...     

热带夏季风对ENSO的非线性响应

采用1950—2002年NCEP/NCAR53 a夏季平均的850 hPa低空风场和GISST海温资料,通过非线性典型相关分析（Nonlinear Canonical Correlation Analysis;NLCCA）,得到热带夏季风对ENSO的响应存在一定的非线性。强La Nina年与强El Nino年相比,环流中心明显偏西偏南,澳大利亚上空出现了一个异常的反气旋系统,风场强度也有很大的差异。当海温正异常或负异常变化时,非线性主要表现在强度上;当海温由正（负）异常变为负（正）异常时,非线性在强度和流型上都有很清楚的表现。热带夏季风对ENSO的响应可分为线性和非线性响应,这两部分分别解释方差的67.45%和32.55%,孟加拉湾—中南半岛西部和菲律宾群岛以西的异常环流主要是由非线性响应引起的。     

The sensitivity of the meridional overturning circulation to modelling uncertainty in a perturbed physics ensemble without flux adjustment

Ocean dynamics play a key role in the climate system, by redistributing heat and freshwater. The uncertainty of how these processes are represented in climate models, and how this uncertainty affects future climate projections can be investigated using perturbed physics ensembles of global circulation models (GCMs). Techniques such as flux adjustments should be avoided since they can impact the sensitivity of the ensemble to the imposed forcing. In this study a method for developing an coupled ensemble with a GCM that does not use flux adjustment is presented. The ensemble is constrained by using information from a prior ensemble with a mixed layer ocean coupled to an atmosphere GCM, to reduce drifts in the coupled ensemble. Constraints on parameter perturbations are derived by using observational constraints on surface temperature, and top of the atmosphere radiative fluxes. As an example of such an ensemble developed with this methodology, uncertainty in response of the meridional overturning circulation (MOC) to increased CO₂ concentrations is investigated. The ensemble mean MOC strength is 17.1?Sv and decreases by 2.1?Sv when greenhouse gas concentrations are doubled. No rapid changes or shutdown of the MOC are seen in any of the ensemble members. There is a strong negative relationship between global mean temperature and MOC strength across the ensemble which is not seen in a multimodel ensemble. A positive relationship between climate sensitivity and the decrease of MOC strength is also seen.     

Oceanic thermal forcing of North Atlantic tropical cyclones

The relationship between North Atlantic tropical cyclone (TC) peak intensity and subsurface ocean temperature is investigated in this study using atmospheric and ocean reanalysis data. It is found that the peak intensity of basin-wide strong TCs (Categories 4 and 5) is positively correlated with subsurface ocean temperature in the extratropical North Atlantic. A possible physical mechanism is that subsurface ocean temperature in the extratropical North Atlantic can affect local sea surface temperature (SST); on the other hand, the moisture generated by the warming SST in the extratropical North Atlantic is transported to the main region of TC development in the tropics by a near-surface anticyclonic atmospheric circulation over the tropical North Atlantic, affecting TC peak intensity. Moreover, coastal upwelling off Northwest Africa and southern Europe can affect subsurface ocean temperature in the extratropical North Atlantic. Therefore, the peak intensity of strong TCs is also found to be directly correlated with the water temperature in these two upwelling regions on an interdecadal timescale.摘要利用大气与海洋再分析数据等相关资料, 本项研究发现, 北大西洋强台风 (Saffir–Simpson分类中的第4和第5类) 的最大强度与亚热带北大西洋的次表层海温呈正相关. 由于亚热带北大西洋的次表层海温会影响当地的海表温度, 该地区海面产生的水汽通过近地面的反气旋大气环流可被输送到位于热带的台风主要发展区域, 进而影响台风的最大强度. 与此同时, 位于西非北部和南欧的近岸涌升流会影响亚热带北大西洋的次表层海温. 因此, 强台风的最大强度也被发现与上述两个涌升流区域的海温具有相关性, 但是这种相关性主要体现在年代际时间尺度上.