Application of blocking diagnosis methods to General Circulation Models. Part II: model simulations

A previously defined automatic method is applied to reanalysis and present-day (1950–1989) forced simulations of the ECHO-G model in order to assess its performance in reproducing atmospheric blocking in the Northern Hemisphere. Unlike previous methodologies, critical parameters and thresholds to estimate blocking occurrence in the model are not calibrated with an observed reference, but objectively derived from the simulated climatology. The choice of model dependent parameters allows for an objective definition of blocking and corrects for some intrinsic model bias, the difference between model and observed thresholds providing a measure of systematic errors in the model. The model captures reasonably the main blocking features (location, amplitude, annual cycle and persistence) found in observations, but reveals a relative southward shift of Eurasian blocks and an overall underestimation of blocking activity, especially over the Euro-Atlantic sector. Blocking underestimation mostly arises from the model inability to generate long persistent blocks with the observed frequency. This error is mainly attributed to a bias in the basic state. The bias pattern consists of excessive zonal winds over the Euro-Atlantic sector and a southward shift at the exit zone of the jet stream extending into in the Eurasian continent, that are more prominent in cold and warm seasons and account for much of Euro-Atlantic and Eurasian blocking errors, respectively. It is shown that other widely used blocking indices or empirical observational thresholds may not give a proper account of the lack of realism in the model as compared with the proposed method. This suggests that in addition to blocking changes that could be ascribed to natural variability processes or climate change signals in the simulated climate, attention should be paid to significant departures in the diagnosis of phenomena that can also arise from an inappropriate adaptation of detection methods to the climate of the model.     

Quantitative assessment of the climate components driving the pacific decadal oscillation in climate models

The Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) is defined as the first empirical orthogonal function (EOF) mode of the North Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies. In this study, we reconstructed the PDO using the first-order autoregressive model from various climate indices representing the El Niño-Southern oscillation (ENSO), Aleutian Low (AL), sea surface height (SSH), and thermocline depth over the Kuroshio–Oyashio extension (KOE) region. The climate indices were obtained from observation and twentieth-century simulations of the eight coupled general circulation models (CGCMs) participating in the Climate Model Intercomparison Project Phase III (CMIP3). In this manner, we quantitatively assessed the major climate components generating the PDO using observation and models. Based on observations, the PDO pattern in the central to eastern North Pacific was accurately reconstructed by the AL and ENSO indices, and that in the western North Pacific was best reconstructed by the SSH and thermocline indices. In the CMIP3 CGCMs, the relative contribution of each component to the generation of the PDO varied greatly from model to model, and observations, although the PDO patterns from most of the models were similar to the pattern observed. In the models, the PDO pattern in the eastern and western North Pacific were well reconstructed using the AL and SSH indices, respectively. However, the PDO pattern reconstructed by the ENSO index was quite different from the observed pattern, which was possibly due to the model's common deficiency in simulating the amplitude and location of the ENSO. Furthermore, the differences in the contribution of the KOE thermocline index between the observed pattern and most of the models indicated that the PDO pattern associated with ocean wave dynamics is not properly simulated by most models. Therefore, the virtually well simulated PDO pattern by models is a result of physically inconsistent processes.     

Combining climatological and participatory approaches for assessing changes in extreme climatic indices at regional scale

This paper combines the climatological and societal perspectives for assessing future climatic extremes over Kangasabati River basin in India using an ensemble of four high resolution (25 km) regional climate model (RCM) simulations from 1970 to 2050. The relevant extreme indices and their thresholds are defined in consultation with stakeholders and are then compared using RCM simulations. To evaluate the performance of RCM in realistically representing atmospheric processes in the basin, model simulations driven with ERAInterim global re-analysis data from 1989 to 2008 are compared with observations. The models perform well in simulating seasonality, interannual variability and climatic extremes. Future climatic extremes are evaluated based on RCM simulations driven by GCMs, for present (1970–1999) and for the SRES A1B scenario for future (2021–2050) period. The analysis shows an intensification of majority of extremes as projected by future ensemble mean. The study suggests that there is a marked consistency in stakeholder observed changes in climate extremes and future predicted trends.     

Development and initial assessment of a new land index for microwave humidity sounder cloud detection

This paper describes a new quality control (QC) scheme for microwave humidity sounder (MHS) data assimilation. It consists of a cloud detection step and an O–B (i.e., differences of brightness temperatures between observations and model simulations) check. Over ocean, cloud detection can be carried out based on two MHS window channels and two Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit-A (AMSU-A) window channels, which can be used for obtaining cloud ice water path (IWP) and liquid water path (LWP), respectively. Over land, cloud detection of microwave data becomes much more challenging due to a much larger emission contribution from land surface than that from cloud. The current MHS cloud detection over land employs an O–B based method, which could fail to identify cloudy radiances when there is mismatch between actual clouds and model clouds. In this study, a new MHS observation based index is developed for identifying MHS cloudy radiances over land. The new land index for cloud detection exploits the large variability of brightness temperature observations among MHS channels over different clouds. It is shown that those MHS cloudy radiances that were otherwise missed by the current O–B based QC method can be successfully identified by the new land index. An O–B check can then be employed to the remaining data after cloud detection to remove additional outliers with model simulations deviated greatly from observations. It is shown that MHS channel correlations are significantly reduced by the newly proposed QC scheme.     

European blocking and Atlantic jet stream variability in the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis and the CMCC-CMS climate model

The relationship between atmospheric blocking over Europe and the Atlantic eddy-driven jet stream is investigated in the NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis and in a climate model. This is carried out using a bidimensional blocking index based on geopotential height and a diagnostic providing daily latitudinal position and strength of the jet stream. It is shown that European Blocking (EB) is not decoupled from the jet stream but it is mainly associated with its poleward displacements. Moreover, the whole blocking area placed on the equatorward side of the jet stream, broadly ranging from Azores up to Scandinavia, emerges as associated with poleward jet displacements. The diagnostics are hence applied to two different climate model simulations in order to evaluate the biases in the jet stream and in the blocking representation. This analysis highlights large underestimation of EB, typical feature of general circulation models. Interestingly, observed blocking and jet biases over the Euro-Atlantic area are consistent with the blocking-jet relationship observed in the NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis. Finally, the importance of sea surface temperatures (SSTs) is investigated showing that realistic SSTs can reduce the bias in the jet stream variability but not in the frequency of EB. We conclude highlighting that blocking-related diagnostics can provide more information about the Euro-Atlantic variability than diagnostics simply based on the Atlantic jet stream.     

Investigating the possibility of a human component in various pacific decadal oscillation indices

The pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) is a mode of natural decadal climate variability, typically defined as the principal component of North Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies. To remove any global warming signal present in the data, the traditional definition specifies that monthly-mean, global-average SST anomalies are subtracted from the local anomalies. Differences in the warming rates over the globe and the PDO region may therefore be aliased into the PDO index. Here, we examine the possibility of a human component in the PDO, considering three different definitions. The implications of these definitions are explored using SSTs from both observations and simulations of historical and future climate, all projected onto (definition-dependent) observed PDO patterns. In the twenty first century scenarios, a systematic anthropogenic component is found in all three PDO indices. Under the first definition??in which no warming signal is removed??this component is so large that it is also statistically detectable in the observed PDO. Using the second/traditional definition, this component is also large, and arises primarily from the differential warming rates predicted in the North Pacific and over global oceans. Removing the spatial average SST signal in the PDO region (in the third definition) partially solves this problem, but a human signal persists because the predicted pattern of SST response to human forcing projects strongly onto the PDO pattern. This illustrates the importance of separating internally-generated and externally-forced components in the PDO, and suggests that caution should be exercised in using PDO indices for statistical removal of ??natural variability?? effects from observational datasets.     

5—6月东北冷涡持续活动及强度特征

利用1960—2012年5—6月NCEP/NCAR逐日再分析资料,基于冷涡经典定义,采取客观识别方法检索东北冷涡活动过程,根据东北冷涡活动时空变化特征给出东北冷涡持续活动过程标准, 通过冷涡强度指数进行定量化分析,该指数对冷涡持续活动过程具有较好表征意义。冷涡活动强对应5月乌拉尔山阻塞高压、贝加尔湖阻塞高压和6月鄂霍次克海阻塞高压活动频繁。通过强弱指数年合成,得到6月强指数年冷涡系统较深厚,集中于对流层中高层,冷心结构明显,具有一定大气斜压特征; 高层存在冷中心,低层有冷空气活动,中高层西风带呈明显的上游分流和下游汇合特征,分汇流之间呈东北高、西南低的偶极子阻塞形势;弱指数年冷涡系统较浅薄,主要集中在对流层中低层,冷心结构不明显,不存在阻塞形势。     

两种微物理方案对夏季东北亚阻塞过程影响的数值模拟结果分析

选用NCEP/NCAR FNL再分析资料,利用中尺度模式WRF对2011年7月25日—8月3日的一次东北亚阻塞高压过程进行数值模拟试验。通过数值对比试验,讨论有冰相物理过程和无冰相物理过程的两种微物理方案对此次阻塞高压过程的强度和维持时间模拟的差异,并简要阐述原因。结果表明:WRF对阻塞高压过程有较好的模拟效果,有冰相物理过程的微物理方案模拟的阻高强度及维持时间较接近实况,整体阻塞闭合环流形势、高压中心值、中心位置以及中心上下游的低压槽强度均与实况接近;无冰相物理过程的微物理方案模拟阻塞高压在500 及200 hPa平均位势高度场上没有闭合的高值中心出现,500 hPa阻塞高压强度弱,持续时间短,200 hPa则相反。进一步研究发现,这两种差异主要由阻塞高压活动区域内的非绝热加热不同引起的,它对阻塞高压形成的强度和维持时间具有很好的指示意义。另外,阻塞高压附近区域的微物理潜热释放对阻塞过程的强度和维持时间也有一定影响。      

Statistical analysis of thunderstorms on the eastern Tibetan Plateau based on modified thunderstorm indices

The Tibetan Plateau, with an average altitude above 4000 m, is the highest and largest plateau in the world. The frequency of thunderstorms in this region is extremely high. Many indices are used in operational forecasting to assess the stability of the atmosphere and predict the probability of severe thunderstorm development. One of the disadvantages of many of these indices is that they are mainly based on observations from plains. However, considering the Plateau's high elevation, most convective parameters cannot be applied directly, or their application is ineffective. The pre-convective environment on thunderstorm days in this region is investigated based on sounding data obtained throughout a five-year period(2006–10).Thunderstorms occur over the Tibetan Plateau under conditions that differ strikingly from those in plains. On this basis,stability indices, such as the Showalter index(including SI and SICCL), and the K index are improved to better assess the thunderstorm environments on the Plateau. Verification parameters, such as the true-skill statistic(TSS) and Heidke skill score(HSS), are adopted to evaluate the optimal thresholds and relative forecast skill for each modified index. Lastly, the modified indices are verified with a two-year independent dataset(2011–12), showing satisfactory results for the modified indices. For determining whether or not a thunderstorm day is likely to occur, we recommend the modified SICCLindex.     

三个气候系统模式对500hPa高度场预报的检验对比分析

基于BCC_CSM1.1m,NCEP_CFSv2和ECMWF_System5模式的历史回报和中国全球大气再分析系统资料,对500hPa位势高度和西太平洋副热带高压进行预报性能评估和可预报性分析.结果表明:三个模式在热带地区均具有较高的预报能力,BCC模式表现最为突出,EC模式预报稳定性最好,NCEP模式预报技巧最低;三...     

An ENSO stability analysis. Part I: results from a hybrid coupled model

In this study, we use the Bjerknes stability (BJ) index as a tool to investigate overall El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) stability in a hybrid-coupled model (HCM) with various atmosphere and ocean background states. This HCM shows that ENSO growth rates as measured by the BJ index and linear growth rates estimated directly with a time series of the Niño 3.4 indices from the coupled model simulations exhibit similar dependence on background states, coupling strength, and thermodynamic damping intensity. That is, the BJ index and linear growth rates increase with a decrease in the intensity of the background wind, an increase in coupling strength, or a decrease in the intensity of thermodynamic damping, although the BJ index tends to overestimate the growth rate. A detailed analysis of the components of the BJ index formula suggests the importance of model climatological background states and oceanic dynamic parameters in determining ENSO stability. We conclude that the BJ index may serve as a useful tool for qualitatively evaluating the overall ENSO stability in coupled models or in observations without a detailed eigen-analysis that is difficult to perform in models more complex than relatively simple models.     

一个能反映梅雨现象的东亚夏季风指数

分析了东亚中纬度地区气候特点的特殊性,并针对此特性定义了一个衡量夏季风强度的指数.对其他东亚季风指数也进行了比较和分析,并针对1998年梅雨个例进行了讨论.这个新的东亚季风指数基本上满足了由Lau等提出的最佳季风指数的原则.该指数的特点为:(1)可以反映逐年季风活动的南北分布;(2)可以较好地描述梅雨现象,尤其对中国江淮梅雨有良好的指示意义,季风指数偏强时,梅雨量大,反之亦然;(3)它与东亚地区大范围的环流变化密切相关,当副高西伸,高纬度地区有阻高(或强脊)活动时属高季风指数,反之为低指数;(4)它也与前期厄尔尼诺现象有密切关联.     

Signal detectability in extreme precipitation changes assessed from twentieth century climate simulations

This study assesses the detectability of external influences in changes of precipitation extremes in the twentieth century, which is explored through a perfect model analysis with an ensemble of coupled global climate model (GCM) simulations. Three indices of precipitation extremes are defined from the generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution: the 20-year return value (P ₂₀), the median (P _m), and the cumulative probability density as a probability-based index (PI). Time variations of area-averages of these three extreme indices are analyzed over different spatial domains from the globe to continental regions. Treating all forcing simulations (ALL; natural plus anthropogenic) of the twentieth century as observations and using a preindustrial control run (CTL) to estimate the internal variability, the amplitudes of response patterns to anthropogenic (ANT), natural (NAT), greenhouse-gases (GHG), and sulfate aerosols (SUL) forcings are estimated using a Bayesian decision method. Results show that there are decisively detectable ANT signals in global, hemispheric, and zonal band areas. When only land is considered, the global and hemispheric detection results are unchanged, but detectable ANT signals in the zonal bands are limited to low latitudes. The ANT signals are also detectable in the P _m and PI but not in P ₂₀ at continental scales over Asia, South America, Africa, and Australia. This indicates that indices located near the center of the GEV distribution (P _m and PI) may give better signal-to-noise ratio than indices representing the tail of the distribution (P ₂₀). GHG and NAT signals are also detectable, but less robustly for more limited extreme indices and regions. These results are largely insensitive when model data are masked to mimic the availability of the observed data. An imperfect model analysis in which fingerprints are obtained from simulations with a different GCM suggests that ANT is robustly detectable only at global and hemispheric scales, with high uncertainty in the zonal and continental results.     

东亚夏季风模式跨季预测的EOF-相似误差订正

利用国家气候中心第2代季节气候预测模式BCC_CSM1.1(m) 的1991—2010年每年2月起报的历史回算资料集,考察模式对于5个夏季风指数的预测能力,并通过发展基于经验正交函数分解与相似分析的EOF-相似误差订正方法,对5个夏季风指数的模式预测进行再修正。交叉检验和独立样本检验结果表明:该模式对1991—2010年东亚夏季风指数与西北太平洋夏季风指数预测技巧较高;EOF-相似误差订正方法适用于模式预测技巧较低的指数,这些指数经订正后预测效果均有不同程度改进,而预测技巧较高的夏季风指数经订正后改进效果不明显;在交叉检验中,线性部分订正多优于非线性部分订正效果,而对于独立试报的年份,非线性部分订正多优于线性部分订正效果,显示出良好的应用前景。     

月尺度西太平洋副热带高压指数的重建与应用

针对目前国家气候中心业务监测中使用的月时间尺度西太平洋副热带高压指数存在的问题,利用NCEP/NCAR月平均再分析资料,对西太平洋副热带高压面积指数、强度指数、脊线指数和西伸脊点4种指数重新进行定义和计算,重建了1951—2010年逐月历史时间序列。面积指数、强度指数采用真实的面积和体积进行定义和计算,脊线指数则同时利用500 hPa高度场和纬向风切变线进行定义,且不仅仅局限于588 dagpm等值线,充分考虑了西太平洋副热带地区高压系统对我国夏季降水的影响作用。选取其中两个相对独立的指数——脊线指数与西伸脊点,通过对这两个指数的9种组合类型的构建,最大程度上涵盖了我国东部夏季降水各种雨型的分布特征。     

Impact of land–sea thermal contrast on interdecadal variation in circulation and blocking

The impact of asymmetric thermal forcing associated with land–sea distribution on interdecadal variation in large-scale circulation and blocking was investigated using observations and the coupled model intercomparison project outputs. A land–sea index (LSI) was defined to measure asymmetric zonal thermal forcing; the index changed from a negative to a positive anomaly in the 1980s. In the positive phase of the LSI, the 500 hPa geopotential height decreased in the polar regions and increased in the mid-latitudes. The tropospheric planetary wave activity also became weaker and exerted less easterly forcing on the westerly wind. These circulation changes were favorable for westerly wind acceleration and reduced blocking. In the Atlantic, the duration of blocking decreased by 38 % during the positive LSI phase compared with that during the negative phase; in Europe, the number of blocking persisting for longer than 10 days during the positive LSI phase was only half of the number during the negative phase. The observed surface air temperature anomaly followed a distinctive “cold ocean/warm land” (COWL) pattern, which provided an environment that reduced, or destroyed, the resonance forcing of topography and was unfavorable for the development and persistence of blocking. In turn, the responses of the westerly and blocking could further enhance continental warming, which would strengthen the “cold ocean/warm land” pattern. This positive feedback amplified regional warming in the context of overall global warming.     

QM和QDM方法对中国极端气候的高分辨率气候变化模拟的误差订正对比

采用分位数映射（Quantile Mapping, QM）和delta分位数映射（Quantile Delta Mapping, QDM）两种误差订正方法对区域气候模式RegCM4在中国区域内模拟的逐日气温和降水数据进行订正。模式数据是5种不同全球气候模式驱动下的区域模式气候变化模拟结果。计算订正前后的极端气候指数进行对比分析,包括日最高气温极大值（TXx）、日最低气温极小值（TNn）、连续干旱日数（CDD）和最大日降水量（RX1day）。结果表明,5组模拟结果和其集合平均（ensR）都显示气温指数的模拟效果高于降水指数,其中对TXx模拟最好,对CDD的模拟最差;经过订正后,针对不同模式的两种订正结果都能够有效地减小模式与观测的偏差并提高了空间相关系数,且两种方法的订正效果无明显差别。对RCP4.5情景下未来变化的分析中,QM在一定程度上改变了模式模拟的未来变化幅度和空间分布特征,QDM则能够有效地保留所有极端指数的气候变化信号。从全国平均来看,除CDD外,所有指数未来都呈现增加趋势,且QDM订正结果与订正前模式模拟的变化趋势更为接近。建议在气候变化模拟的误差订正中采用QDM方法。     

Statistical downscaling of summer temperature extremes in northern China

Two approaches of statistical downscaling were applied to indices of temperature extremes based on percentiles of daily maximum and minimum temperature observations at Beijing station in summer during 1960-2008. One was to downscale daily maximum and minimum temperatures by using EOF analysis and stepwise linear regression at first, then to calculate the indices of extremes; the other was to directly downscale the percentile-based indices by using seasonal large-scale temperature and geo-potential height records. The cross-validation results showed that the latter approach has a better performance than the former. Then, the latter approach was applied to 48 meteorological stations in northern China. The cross-validation results for all 48 stations showed close correlation between the percentile-based indices and the seasonal large-scale variables. Finally, future scenarios of indices of temperature extremes in northern China were projected by applying the statistical downscaling to Hadley Centre Coupled Model Version 3 (HadCM3) simulations under the Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 (RCP 4.5) scenario of the Fifth Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP5). The results showed that the 90th percentile of daily maximum temperatures will increase by about 1.5℃, and the 10th of daily minimum temperatures will increase by about 2℃ during the period 2011-35 relative to 1980-99.     

冬季中高纬地区阻塞高压活动及其气候影响

利用1958—1996年NCEP再分析500 hPa逐日高度场资料,根据阻塞高压定义的客观标准,对亚欧地区中高纬度冬季的阻塞高压进行了统计,并进行了气候学分析。结果表明,北半球冬季阻塞高压活动有很强的年际变化,而且存在明显的地理差异。在此基础上,本文还根据阻塞高压天气学指数,建立了阻塞高压的气候学指数,并用该阻塞高压气候学指数与温度、降水两个气候要素场进行了相关统计。     

Using a simple SVAT scheme to describe the effect of scale on aggregation

Avaporation is enhanced at a dry-to-wet transition but not equally depressed at a wet-to-dry transition. Therefore, the more dry-wet edges there are per unit area, the higher the evaporation. This behaviour is predicted by the blending height; the smaller the length scale of variation, the smaller the blending height and the higher the evaporation. The blending height principle can be modelled simply for a mixture of two surfaces using a model with three resistances and applying the energy combination theory developed for sparse canopies. Results from numberical model simulations are shown to agree with the simple analytical model. The blending height is found to be too large to model correctly observations from small-scale heterogeneous terrain in the Sahel. This is assumed to be due to edge effects.The results show that a modification of the sparse canopy model can be made to represent heterogeneity at all scales.SVAT is Surface Vegetation Atmosphere Transfer.