NAO–ocean circulation interactions in a coupled general circulation model

The interplay between the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the large scale ocean circulation is inspected in a twentieth century simulation conducted with a state-of-the-art coupled general circulation model. Significant lead–lag covariance between oceanic and tropospheric variables suggests that the system supports a damped oscillatory mode involving an active ocean–atmosphere coupling, with a typical NAO-like space structure and a 5 years timescale, qualitatively consistent with a mid-latitude delayed oscillator paradigm. The two essential processes governing the oscillation are (1) a negative feedback between ocean gyre circulation and the high latitude SST meridional gradient and (2) a positive feedback between SST and the NAO. The atmospheric NAO pattern appears to have a weaker projection on the ocean meridional overturning, compared to the gyre circulation, which leads to a secondary role for the thermohaline circulation in driving the meridional heat transport, and thus the oscillatory mode.     

The North Atlantic thermohaline circulation simulated by the GISS climate model during 1970–99

Abstract

Evidence based on numerical simulations is presented for a strong correlation between the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the North Atlantic overturning circulation. Using an ensemble of numerical experiments with a coupled ocean‐atmosphere model including both natural and anthropogenic forcings, it is shown that the weakening of the thermohaline circulation (THC) could be delayed in response to a sustained upward trend in the NAO, which was observed over the last three decades of the twentieth century, 1970–99. Overall warming and enhanced horizontal transports of heat from the tropics to the subpolar North Atlantic overwhelm the NAO‐induced cooling of the upper ocean layers due to enhanced fluxes of latent and sensible heat, so that the net effect of warmed surface ocean temperatures acts to increase the vertical stability of the ocean column. However, the strong westerly winds cause increased evaporation from the ocean surface, which leads to a reduced fresh water flux over the western part of the North Atlantic. Horizontal poleward transport of salinity anomalies from the tropical Atlantic is the major contributor to the increasing salinities in the sinking regions of the North Atlantic. The effect of positive salinity anomalies on surface ocean density overrides the opposing effect of enhanced warming of the ocean surface, which causes an increase in surface density in the Labrador Sea and in the ocean area south of Greenland. The increased density of the upper ocean layer leads to deeper convection in the Labrador Sea and in the western North Atlantic. With a lag of four years, the meridional overturning circulation of the North Atlantic shows strengthening as it adjusts to positive density anomalies and enhanced vertical mixing. During the positive NAO trend, the salinity‐driven density instability in the upper ocean, due to both increased northward ocean transports of salinity and decreased atmospheric freshwater fluxes, results in a strengthening overturning circulation in the North Atlantic when the surface atmospheric temperature increases by 0.3°C and the ocean surface temperature warms by 0.5° to 1°C.     

North African climate variability. Part 1: Tropical thermocline coupling

Summary Tropical ocean thermocline variability is studied using gridded data assimilated by an ocean model in the period 1950–2000. The dominant patterns and variability are identified using EOF analysis applied to E–W depth slices of sea temperatures averaged over the tropics. After removing the annual cycle, an east–west ‘see-saw’ with an interannual to decadal rhythm is the leading mode in each of the tropical basins. In the case of the leading mode in the Pacific, the thermocline oscillation forms a dipole structure, but in the (east) Atlantic and (southwest) Indian Ocean there is a single center of action. The interaction of the ocean thermocline and atmospheric Walker circulations is studied through cross-modulus analysis of wavelet-filtered EOF time scores. Our study demonstrates how tropical ocean thermocline variability contributes to zonal circulation anomalies in the atmosphere. The equatorial Pacific thermocline oscillation explains 62 and 53% of the variability of the Pacific and Atlantic zonal overturning circulations, the latter driving convective polarity between North Africa and South America. The Pacific sea-saw leads the Atlantic zonal circulation by a few months.     

A statistical�Cdynamical scheme for reconstructing ocean forcing in the Atlantic. Part I: weather regimes as predictors for ocean surface variables

The links between the observed variability of the surface ocean variables estimated from reanalysis and the overlying atmosphere decomposed in classes of large-scale atmospheric circulation via clustering are investigated over the Atlantic from 1958 to 2002. Daily 500?hPa geopotential height and 1,000?hPa wind anomaly maps are classified following a weather-typing approach to describe the North Atlantic and tropical Atlantic atmospheric dynamics, respectively. The algorithm yields patterns that correspond in the extratropics to the well-known North Atlantic-Europe weather regimes (NAE-WR) accounting for the barotropic dynamics, and in the tropics to wind classes (T-WC) representing the alteration of the trades. 10-m wind and 2-m temperature (T2) anomaly composites derived from regime/wind class occurrence are indicative of strong relationships between daily large-scale atmospheric circulation and ocean surface over the entire Atlantic basin. High temporal correlation values are obtained basin-wide at low frequency between the observed fields and their reconstruction by multiple linear regressions with the frequencies of occurrence of both NAE-WR and T-WC used as sole predictors. Additional multiple linear regressions also emphasize the importance of accounting for the strength of the daily anomalous atmospheric circulation estimated by the combined distances to all regimes centroids in order to reproduce the daily to interannual variability of the Atlantic ocean. We show that for most of the North Atlantic basin the occurrence of NAE-WR generally sets the sign of the ocean surface anomaly for a given day, and that the inter-regime distances are valuable predictors for the magnitude of that anomaly. Finally, we provide evidence that a large fraction of the low-frequency trends in the Atlantic observed at the surface over the last 50?years can be traced back, except for T2, to changes in occurrence of tropical and extratropical weather classes. All together, our findings are encouraging for the prospects of basin-scale ocean dynamical downscaling using a weather-typing approach to reconstruct forcing fields for high resolution ocean models (Part II) from coarse resolution climate models.     

南极海冰涛动对北半球夏季大气环流的影响

南极海冰首要模态呈现偶极子型异常,正负异常中心分别位于别林斯高晋海/阿蒙森海和威德尔海。过去研究表明冬春季节南极海冰涛动异常对后期南极涛动（Antarctic Oscillation,AAO）型大气环流有显著影响,而AAO可以通过经向遥相关等机制影响北半球大气环流和东亚气候。本文中我们利用观测分析发现南极海冰涛动从5～7月（May–July,MJJ）到8～10月（August–October, ASO）有很好的持续性,并进一步分析其对北半球夏季大气环流的可能影响及其物理过程。结果表明,MJJ南极海冰涛动首先通过冰气相互作用在南半球激发持续性的AAO型大气环流异常,使得南半球中纬度和极地及热带之间的气压梯度加大,在MJJ至JAS,纬向平均纬向风呈现显著的正负相间的从南极到北极的经向遥相关型分布。对流层中层位势高度场上,在澳大利亚北部到海洋性大陆区域,出现显著的负异常,在东亚沿岸从低纬到高纬呈现南北走向的“? + ?”太平洋—日本（Pacific–Japan,PJ）遥相关波列,其对应赤道中部太平洋及赤道印度洋存在显著的降水和海温负异常,西北太平洋至我国东部沿海地区存在显著降水正异常和温度负异常;低纬度北美洲到大西洋一带存在的负位势高度异常和北大西洋附近存在的正位势高度异常中心,构成一个类似于西大西洋型遥相关（Western Atlantic,WA）的结构,对应赤道南大西洋降水增加和南撒哈拉地区降水减少。从物理过程来看,南极海冰涛动首先通过局地效应影响Ferrel环流,进而通过经圈环流调整使得海洋性大陆区域和热带大西洋上方的Hadley环流上升支得到增强,海洋性大陆区域特别是菲律宾附近的热带对流活动偏强,激发类似于负位相的PJ波列,影响东亚北太平洋地区的大气环流,而热带大西洋对流增强和北传特征,则通过激发WA遥相关影响大西洋和欧洲地区的大气环流。以上两种通道将持续性MJJ至ASO南极海冰涛动强迫的大气环流信号从南半球中高纬度经热带地区传递到北半球中高纬地区,从而对热带和北半球夏季大气环流产生显著影响。     

Influence of the surface water temperature and heat flux in the North Atlantic on the atmospheric circulation

Correlation of water temperature and latent heat fluxes in winter in the North Atlantic with the atmospheric circulation in the subsequent months are analyzed based on the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data. Monthly and daily indices of the North Atlantic Oscillation are used as characteristics of the atmosphere circulation. It is shown that conditions of the heat exchange between ocean and atmosphere in the western North Atlantic in February can influence the atmospheric circulation and air temperature in Europe in March.     

A global hybrid coupled model based on atmosphere-SST feedbacks

A global hybrid coupled model is developed, with the aim of studying the effects of ocean-atmosphere feedbacks on the stability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. The model includes a global ocean general circulation model and a statistical atmosphere model. The statistical atmosphere model is based on linear regressions of data from a fully coupled climate model on sea surface temperature both locally and hemispherically averaged, being the footprint of Atlantic meridional overturning variability. It provides dynamic boundary conditions to the ocean model for heat, freshwater and wind-stress. A basic but consistent representation of ocean-atmosphere feedbacks is captured in the hybrid coupled model and it is more than 10 times faster than the fully coupled climate model. The hybrid coupled model reaches a steady state with a climate close to the one of the fully coupled climate model, and the two models also have a similar response (collapse) of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation to a freshwater hosing applied in the northern North Atlantic.     

Impact of the configuration of stretching and ocean–atmosphere coupling on tropical cyclone activity in the variable-resolution GCM ARPEGE

This study starts by investigating the impact of the configuration of the variable-resolution atmospheric grid on tropical cyclone (TC) activity. The French atmospheric general circulation model ARPEGE, the grid of which is rotated and stretched over the North Atlantic basin, was used with prescribed sea surface temperatures. The study clearly shows that changing the position of the stretching pole strongly modifies the representation of TC activity over the North Atlantic basin. A pole in the centre of the North Atlantic basin provides the best representation of the TC activity for this region. In a second part, the variable-resolution climate model ARPEGE is coupled with the European oceanic global climate model NEMO in order to study the impact of ocean–atmosphere coupling on TC activity over the North Atlantic basin. Two pre-industrial runs, a coupled simulation and a simulation forced by the sea surface temperatures from the coupled one, are compared. The results show that the coupled simulation is more active in the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico while the forced simulation is more active over eastern Florida and the eastern Atlantic. The difference in the distribution of TC activity is certainly linked with the location of TC genesis. In the forced simulation, tropical cyclogenesis is closer to the west African coast than in the coupled simulation. Moreover, the difference in TC activity over the eastern Atlantic seems to be related to two different mechanisms: the difference in African easterly wave activity over the west of Africa and the cooling produced, in the coupled simulation, by African easterly waves over the eastern Atlantic. Finally, the last part studies the impact of changing the frequency of ocean–atmosphere coupling on Atlantic TC activity. Increasing the frequency of coupling decreases the density of TC activity over the North Atlantic basin. However, it does not modify the spatial distribution of the TC activity. TC rainfalls are decreased by 8?% in the high frequency coupled run.     

North Atlantic gyre circulation in PRIMAVERA models

We study the impact of horizontal resolution in setting the North Atlantic gyre circulation and representing the ocean–atmosphere interactions that modulate the low-frequency variability in the region. Simulations from five state-of-the-art climate models performed at standard and high-resolution as part of the High-Resolution Model Inter-comparison Project (HighResMIP) were analysed. In some models, the resolution is enhanced in the atmospheric and oceanic components whereas, in some other models, the resolution is increased only in the atmosphere. Enhancing the horizontal resolution from non-eddy to eddy-permitting ocean produces stronger barotropic mass transports inside the subpolar and subtropical gyres. The first mode of inter-annual variability is associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) in all the cases. The rapid ocean response to it consists of a shift in the position of the inter-gyre zone and it is better captured by the non-eddy models. The delayed ocean response consists of an intensification of the subpolar gyre (SPG) after around 3 years of a positive phase of NAO and it is better represented by the eddy-permitting oceans. A lagged relationship between the intensity of the SPG and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is stronger in the cases of the non-eddy ocean. Then, the SPG is more tightly coupled to the AMOC in low-resolution models.

     

Impact of ocean model resolution on CCSM climate simulations

The current literature provides compelling evidence suggesting that an eddy-resolving (as opposed to eddy-permitting or eddy-parameterized) ocean component model will significantly impact the simulation of the large-scale climate, although this has not been fully tested to date in multi-decadal global coupled climate simulations. The purpose of this paper is to examine how resolved ocean fronts and eddies impact the simulation of large-scale climate. The model used for this study is the NCAR Community Climate System Model version 3.5 (CCSM3.5)—the forerunner to CCSM4. Two experiments are reported here. The control experiment is a 155-year present-day climate simulation using a 0.5° atmosphere component (zonal resolution 0.625 meridional resolution 0.5°; land surface component at the same resolution) coupled to ocean and sea-ice components with zonal resolution of 1.2° and meridional resolution varying from 0.27° at the equator to 0.54° in the mid-latitudes. The second simulation uses the same atmospheric and land-surface models coupled to eddy-resolving 0.1° ocean and sea-ice component models. The simulations are compared in terms of how the representation of smaller scale features in the time mean ocean circulation and ocean eddies impact the mean and variable climate. In terms of the global mean surface temperature, the enhanced ocean resolution leads to a ubiquitous surface warming with a global mean surface temperature increase of about 0.2?°C relative to the control. The warming is largest in the Arctic and regions of strong ocean fronts and ocean eddy activity (i.e., Southern Ocean, western boundary currents). The Arctic warming is associated with significant losses of sea-ice in the high-resolution simulation. The sea surface temperature gradients in the North Atlantic, in particular, are better resolved in the high-resolution model leading to significantly sharper temperature gradients and associated large-scale shifts in the rainfall. In the extra-tropics, the interannual temperature variability is increased with the resolved eddies, and a notable increases in the amplitude of the El Ni?o and the Southern Oscillation is also detected. Changes in global temperature anomaly teleconnections and local air-sea feedbacks are also documented and show large changes in ocean–atmosphere coupling. In particular, local air-sea feedbacks are significantly modified by the increased ocean resolution. In the high-resolution simulation in the extra-tropics there is compelling evidence of stronger forcing of the atmosphere by SST variability arising from ocean dynamics. This coupling is very weak or absent in the low-resolution model.     

Discrepancies in Simulated Ocean Net Surface Heat Fluxes over the North Atlantic

The change in ocean net surface heat flux plays an important role in the climate system. It is closely related to the ocean heat content change and ocean heat transport, particularly over the North Atlantic, where the ocean loses heat to the atmosphere, affecting the AMOC(Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation) variability and hence the global climate.However, the difference between simulated surface heat fluxes is still large due to poorly represented dynamical processes involving multisca...     

Mechanisms of the atmospheric response to North Atlantic multidecadal variability: a model study

The atmospheric circulation response to decadal fluctuations of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (MOC) in the IPSL climate model is investigated using the associated sea surface temperature signature. A SST anomaly is prescribed in sensitivity experiments with the atmospheric component of the IPSL model coupled to a slab ocean. The prescribed SST anomaly in the North Atlantic is the surface signature of the MOC influence on the atmosphere detected in the coupled simulation. It follows a maximum of the MOC by a few years and resembles the model Atlantic multidecadal oscillation. It is mainly characterized by a warming of the North Atlantic south of Iceland, and a cooling of the Nordic Seas. There are substantial seasonal variations in the geopotential height response to the prescribed SST anomaly, with an East Atlantic Pattern-like response in summer and a North Atlantic oscillation-like signal in winter. In summer, the response of the atmosphere is global in scale, resembling the climatic impact detected in the coupled simulation, albeit with a weaker amplitude. The zonally asymmetric or eddy part of the response is characterized by a trough over warm SST associated with changes in the stationary waves. A diagnostic analysis with daily data emphasizes the role of transient-eddy forcing in shaping and maintaining the equilibrium response. We show that in response to an intensified MOC, the North Atlantic storm tracks are enhanced and shifted northward during summer, consistent with a strengthening of the westerlies. However the anomalous response is weak, which suggests a statistically significant but rather modest influence of the extratropical SST on the atmosphere. The winter response to the MOC-induced North Atlantic warming is an intensification of the subtropical jet and a southward shift of the Atlantic storm track activity, resulting in an equatorward shift of the polar jet. Although the SST anomaly is only prescribed in the Atlantic ocean, significant impacts are found globally, indicating that the Atlantic ocean can drive a large scale atmospheric variability at decadal timescales. The atmospheric response is highly non-linear in both seasons and is consistent with the strong interaction between transient eddies and the mean flow. This study emphasizes that decadal fluctuations of the MOC can affect the storm tracks in both seasons and lead to weak but significant dynamical changes in the atmosphere.     

Air–sea coupling in the North Atlantic during summer

In this work, we have investigated the evolution of the summer air–sea interaction in the North Atlantic Ocean and the physical processes involved using reanalysis data and model simulation. It is found that an atmosphere disturbance over the North Atlantic Ocean in the preceding winter favors the build-up of a North Atlantic horseshoe-like sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) pattern in the summer through modifying the northeast trade winds and changing ocean upwelling and downwelling. The changed ocean condition (SSTA, upwelling, and downwelling) further intensifies the atmosphere disturbance as a positive feedback. The thermal advection of the atmosphere disturbance weakens the SSTA pattern in the following autumn and winter. The anomalous circulation associated with the air–sea interaction in the observations is characterized by a barotropic structure in the middle and high latitudes of the North Atlantic Ocean. The baroclinic component is enhanced in the model simulation, particularly in the seasons from summer to winter. The life cycle of the air–sea interaction is about 1 year in both the observations and simulations.     

Effects of atmospheric dynamics and ocean resolution on bi-stability of the thermohaline circulation examined using the Grid ENabled Integrated Earth system modelling (GENIE) framework

We have used the Grid ENabled Integrated Earth system modelling (GENIE) framework to undertake a systematic search for bi-stability of the ocean thermohaline circulation (THC) for different surface grids and resolutions of 3-D ocean (GOLDSTEIN) under a 3-D dynamical atmosphere model (IGCM). A total of 407,000 years were simulated over a three month period using Grid computing. We find bi-stability of the THC despite significant, quasi-periodic variability in its strength driven by variability in the dynamical atmosphere. The position and width of the hysteresis loop depends on the choice of surface grid (longitude-latitude or equal area), but is less sensitive to changes in ocean resolution. For the same ocean resolution, the region of bi-stability is broader with the IGCM than with a simple energy-moisture balance atmosphere model (EMBM). Feedbacks involving both ocean and atmospheric dynamics are found to promote THC bi-stability. THC switch-off leads to increased import of freshwater at the southern boundary of the Atlantic associated with meridional overturning circulation. This is counteracted by decreased freshwater import associated with gyre and diffusive transports. However, these are localised such that the density gradient between North and South is reduced tending to maintain the THC off state. THC switch-off can also generate net atmospheric freshwater input to the Atlantic that tends to maintain the off state. The ocean feedbacks are present in all resolutions, across most of the bi-stable region, whereas the atmosphere feedback is strongest in the longitude–latitude grid and around the transition where the THC off state is disappearing. Here the net oceanic freshwater import due to the overturning mode weakens, promoting THC switch-on, but the atmosphere counteracts this by increasing net freshwater input. This increases the extent of THC bi-stability in this version of the model. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (doi:) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

Formation and pathways of North Atlantic Deep Water in a coupled ice–ocean model of the Arctic–North Atlantic Oceans

We investigate the formation process and pathways of deep water masses in a coupled ice–ocean model of the Arctic and North Atlantic Oceans. The intent is to determine the relative roles of these water masses from the different source regions (Arctic Ocean, Nordic Seas, and Subpolar Atlantic) in the meridional overturning circulation. The model exhibits significant decadal variability in the deep western boundary current and the overturning circulation. We use detailed diagnostics to understand the process of water mass formation in the model and the resulting effects on the North Atlantic overturning circulation. Particular emphasis is given to the multiple sources of North Atlantic Deep Water, the dominant deep water masses of the world ocean. The correct balance of Labrador Sea, Greenland Sea and Norwegian Sea sources is difficult to achieve in climate models, owing to small-scale sinking and convection processes. The global overturning circulation is described as a function of potential temperature and salinity, which more clearly signifies dynamical processes and clarifies resolution problems inherent to the high latitude oceans. We find that fluxes of deep water masses through various passages in the model are higher than observed estimates. Despite the excessive volume flux, the Nordic Seas overflow waters are diluted by strong mixing and enter the Labrador Sea at a lighter density. Through strong subpolar convection, these waters along with other North Atlantic water masses are converted into the densest waters [similar density to Antarctic Bottom Water (AABW)] in the North Atlantic. We describe the diminished role of salinity in the Labrador Sea, where a shortage of buoyant surface water (or excess of high salinity water) leads to overly strong convection. The result is that the Atlantic overturning circulation in the model is very sensitive to the surface heat flux in the Labrador Sea and hence is correlated with the North Atlantic Oscillation. As strong subpolar convection is found in other models, we discuss broader implications.     

大气环流模式（SAMIL）海气耦合前后性能的比较

基于耦合器框架，中国科学院大气物理研究所大气科学和地球流体力学数值模拟国家重点实验室大气环流谱模式 （SAMIL）最近成功地实现了与海洋、海冰等气候分量模式的耦合，形成了“非通量调整”的海－陆－气－冰直接耦合的气候模式系统（FGOALS-s）。在耦合系统中，由于海温、海冰等的分布由预报模式驱动，大气与海洋、海冰之间引入了相互作用过程，这样大气环流的模拟特征与耦合前会有不同。为分析耦合系统的性能，作者对耦合前后的模拟结果进行了分析比较，重点是大气模拟特征的差异。结果表明，耦合前、后大气环流的基本特征相似，都能成功地模拟出主要的环流系统分布及季节变化，但是由于海温和海冰的模拟存在系统性的偏差，使得耦合后的大气环流受到明显影响。例如耦合后热带海温偏冷，南大洋、北太平洋和北大西洋等中纬度地区的海温偏高，导致海温等值线向高纬海域的伸展较弱，海温经向梯度减小。耦合后海冰在北极区域范围偏大，在南极周边地区则偏小。海温、海冰分布模拟的偏差影响到中、高纬低层大气的温度。热带海温偏低，使得赤道地区降水偏弱，凝结潜热减少，热带对流层中高层温度比耦合前要低，大气温度的经向梯度减小。经向温度梯度的改变，直接影响到对平均经圈环流及西风急流强度的模拟。尽管耦合系统中海温、海冰的模拟存在偏差，但在亚洲季风区，耦合后季风环流及降水等的分布都比耦合前单独大气模式的结果合理，表明通过海[CD*2]气相互作用可减少耦合前季风区的模拟误差，改善季风模拟效果。比较发现，海温、海冰模拟的偏差，除与海洋模式中经向热输送偏弱、海冰模式中海冰处理等有关外，也与大气模式中总云量模拟偏低有关。大气模式本身的误差，特别是云、辐射过程带来的误差，对耦合结果具有极为重要的影响。完全耦合后，这些误差通过与海洋、海冰的反馈作用而放大。因此，对于FGOALS-s而言，要提高耦合系统的整体性能，除改进各气候分量模式的模拟性能外，需要重点改进大气模式中的云、辐射过程。     

The impact of resolution on the adjustment and decadal variability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation in a coupled climate model

Variations in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (MOC) exert an important influence on climate, particularly on decadal time scales. Simulation of the MOC in coupled climate models is compromised, to a degree that is unknown, by their lack of fidelity in resolving some of the key processes involved. There is an overarching need to increase the resolution and fidelity of climate models, but also to assess how increases in resolution influence the simulation of key phenomena such as the MOC. In this study we investigate the impact of significantly increasing the (ocean and atmosphere) resolution of a coupled climate model on the simulation of MOC variability by comparing high and low resolution versions of the same model. In both versions, decadal variability of the MOC is closely linked to density anomalies that propagate from the Labrador Sea southward along the deep western boundary. We demonstrate that the MOC adjustment proceeds more rapidly in the higher resolution model due the increased speed of western boundary waves. However, the response of the Atlantic sea surface temperatures to MOC variations is relatively robust—in pattern if not in magnitude—across the two resolutions. The MOC also excites a coupled ocean-atmosphere response in the tropical Atlantic in both model versions. In the higher resolution model, but not the lower resolution model, there is evidence of a significant response in the extratropical atmosphere over the North Atlantic 6?years after a maximum in the MOC. In both models there is evidence of a weak negative feedback on deep density anomalies in the Labrador Sea, and hence on the MOC (with a time scale of approximately ten years). Our results highlight the need for further work to understand the decadal variability of the MOC and its simulation in climate models.     

Simulated decadal oscillations of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation in a cold climate state

The significance of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (MOC) for regional and hemispheric climate change requires a complete understanding using fully coupled climate models. Here we present a persistent, decadal oscillation in a coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation model. While the present study is limited by the lack of comparisons with paleo-proxy records, the purpose is to reveal a new theoretically interesting solution found in the fully-coupled climate model. The model exhibits two multi-century-long stable states with one dominated by decadal MOC oscillations. The oscillations involve an interaction between anomalous advective transport of salt and surface density in the North Atlantic subpolar gyre. Their time scale is fundamentally determined by the advection. In addition, there is a link between the MOC oscillations and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)-like sea level pressure anomalies. The analysis suggests an interaction between the NAO and an anomalous subpolar gyre circulation in which sea ice near and south of the Labrador Sea plays an important role in generating a large local thermal anomaly and a meridional temperature gradient. The latter induces a positive feedback via synoptic eddy activity in the atmosphere. In addition, the oscillation only appears when the Nordic Sea is completely covered by sea ice in winter, and deep convection is active only near the Irminger Sea. Such conditions are provided by a substantially colder North Atlantic climate than today.     

The Impact of Cloud Representation on the Sub-Seasonal Forecasts of Atmospheric Teleconnections and Preferred Circulation Regimes in the Northern Hemisphere

Abstract

The impact of cloud representation on the simulation of mid-latitude recurrent large-scale flows and forecast skill of mid-latitude atmospheric teleconnections is evaluated using the Community Climate System Model, version 4 (CCSM4), and the super-parameterized CCSM4 (SP-CCSM4). Patterns of low-level atmospheric circulation anomalies and convection associated with the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) are affected by the method used for the representation of cloud processes. The configuration of the model using super-parameterization for the representation of cloud processes produces MJO-related patterns that agree better with observations than the configuration of the model using a conventional cloud parameterization scheme. The recurrent circulation regimes of the mid-latitudes are also sensitive to the representation of cloud processes. In the North Atlantic sector, the inability of CCSM4 to simulate the Scandinavian blocking regime is corrected in the super-parameterized version of the model. In the North Pacific sector, the strength of the clustering (measured by a variance ratio) is too large in CCSM4 compared with observations and SP-CCSM4. The SP-CCSM4 model has better forecast skill for the MJO amplitude and phase than the model with conventional representation of moist convective processes. In turn, the improved forecast skill of the super-parameterized model results in better forecast skill for mid-latitude teleconnections in 500 hPa geopotential height anomalies forced by the MJO convection.     

An intimate coupling of ocean–atmospheric interaction over the extratropical North Atlantic and Pacific

The inter-basin teleconnection between the North Atlantic and the North Pacific ocean–atmosphere interaction is studied using a coupled ocean–atmosphere general circulation model. In the model, an idealized oceanic temperature anomaly is initiated over the Kuroshio and the Gulf Stream extension region to track the coupled evolution of ocean and atmosphere interaction, respectively. The experiments explicitly demonstrate that both the North Pacific and the North Atlantic ocean–atmosphere interactions are intimately coupled through an inter-basin atmospheric teleconnection. This fast inter-basin communication can transmit oceanic variability between the North Atlantic and the North Pacific through local ocean-to-atmosphere feedbacks. The leading mode of the extratropical atmospheric internal variability plays a dominant role in shaping the hemispheric-scale response forced by oceanic variability over the North Atlantic and Pacific. Modeling results also suggest that a century (two centuries) long observations are necessary for the detection of Pacific response to Atlantic forcings (Atlantic response to Pacific forcing).