A modelling approach for estimating the frequency of sea level extremes and the impact of climate change in southeast Australia

An efficient approach for evaluating storm tide return levels along the southeastern coastline of Australia under present and future climate conditions is described. Storm surge height probabilities for the present climate are estimated using hydrodynamic model simulations of surges identified in recent tide gauge records. Tides are then accounted for using a joint probability method. Storm tide height return levels obtained in this way are similar to those obtained from the direct analysis of tide gauge records. The impact of climate change on extreme sea levels is explored by adding a variety of estimates of mean sea level rise and by forcing the model with modified wind data. It is shown that climate change has the potential to reduce average recurrence intervals of present climate 1 in 100 year storm tide levels along much of the northern Bass Strait coast to between 1 and 2 years by the year 2070.     

Storm climate on the Danube delta coast: evidence of recent storminess change and links with large-scale teleconnection patterns

This paper presents an overview of storminess along the Danube delta coast since 1949 by analysing wind and wave data and discusses the influences of teleconnections on climate variability. To this end, a five-category storm classification is proposed based on wind speed intensity and storm duration. On average, this coast experiences 30 storms/year occurring predominantly in winter, three of them considered severe (categories III–IV). The extreme storms (cat. V) endanger most the coastal settlements and the back-beach ecosystems (sand dunes, wetlands, lagoons) and have a mean recurrence rate of 7 years, but occur with a large inter-annual variability more frequent during the late 1960s, the 1970s and the 1990s. The prevalence of northern storms, in particular for the severe ones (>90% frequency for wind speeds >20 m/s) is responsible for the vigorous southward longshore sediment transport, which shaped the Danube delta physiognomy over the last millennia. The application of the newly developed energetic (Storm Severity Index—SSI) and morphologic (Storm Impact Potential—SIP) proxies allowed the better assessment of both the storm strength and the temporal variation in storm energy. It appears that storm climate follows a cyclic pattern with successive periods of 7–9 years of high, moderate and low storminess in accordance with the main teleconnections patterns (North Atlantic Oscillation—NAO, East Atlantic oscillation—EA, East Atlantic/Western Russia—EAWR, Scandinavian oscillation—SCAND). If NAO succeeded to explain best most of the storminess evolution (r = ?0.76 for 1962–2005), it failed during the latest decade (since 2006) when an unprecedented low in storminess occurred. There is also evidence of increased southern circulation during the latter period, associated with a reversal of correlation with NAO (from negative to positive). Significant correlations were also found for the EA, EAWR and SCAND (r = ?0.55, 0.56, 0.55, respectively, significant at p < 0.01) for all the study period suggesting that besides NAO, the north-western Black Sea coast storminess is considerably influenced by several modes of climate variability, most notable the EA and the EAWR, which succeed to address the recent decrease in storminess.     

Drainage patterns in southeast Queensland: the key to concealed geological structures?

Southeast Queensland's geomorphology is characterised by northwest – southeast-trending trunk drainage channels and highlands that strongly correlate with the distribution of geological units and major faults. Other geomorphological trends strongly coincide with subsidiary faults and geological domains. Australia is presently under compressional stress. Seismicity over the past 130 years records 56 earthquakes of >2 magnitude indicating continuing small-scale earth movements in the Moreton region. Highlands in this region are dominated by Paleozoic to Triassic metamorphic and igneous rocks, and are generally 20 – 80 km from the coastline. Coastal lowlands are largely dominated by Mesozoic sedimentary basins and a veneer of surficial sediments. The eastern coast of Australia represents a passive margin; crustal sag along this margin could be expected to produce relatively short, high-energy, eastward-flowing drainage systems. We performed a geomorphological analysis to characterise the drainage patterns in southeast Queensland and identify associations with geological features. Anomalous channel, valley and escarpment features were identified, which failed to match the anticipated drainage model and also lacked obvious geological control. Despite their proximity to the coast (base level), these features include areas where drainage channels flow consistently away from, or parallel to, the coastline. Although many channels do coincide with geological structures, the drainage anomalies cannot be directly related to known structural discontinuities. Anomalous drainage patterns are suggested to indicate previously unidentified structural features and in some cases relatively young tectonic control on the landscape. Recent seismicity data have also been analysed to assess spatial correlations between earthquakes and geomorphological features. Our results show that structure largely controls drainage patterns in this region, and we suggest that a presently unmapped and potentially active, deep-seated structure may exist parallel to the coast in the northern coastal region. We propose that this structure has been associated with uplift in the coastal region of southeast Queensland since mid-Cenozoic times.     

Mapping joint hurricane wind and surge hazards for Charleston,South Carolina

Combined effects of hurricane wind and surge can pose significant threats to coastal cities. Although current design codes consider the joint occurrence of wind and surge, information on site-specific joint distributions of hurricane wind and surge along the US Coast is still sparse and limited. In this study, joint hazard maps for combined hurricane wind and surge for Charleston, South Carolina (SC), were developed. A stochastic Markov chain hurricane simulation program was utilized to generate 50,000 years of full-track hurricane events. The surface wind speeds and surge heights from individual hurricanes were computed using the Georgiou’s wind field model and the Sea, Lake and Overland Surges from Hurricanes (SLOSH) model, respectively. To validate the accuracy of the SLOSH model, the simulated surge levels were compared to the surge levels calculated by another state-of-the-art storm surge model, ADCIRC (Advanced Circulation), and the actual observed water elevations from historical hurricane events. Good agreements were found between the simulated and observed water elevations. The model surface wind speeds were also compared with the design wind speeds in ASCE 7-10 and were found to agree well with the design values. Using the peak wind speeds and maximum surge heights, the joint hazard surfaces and the joint hazard maps for Charleston, SC, were developed. As part of this study, an interactive computer program, which can be used to obtain the joint wind speed and surge height distributions for any location in terms of latitude and longitude in Charleston area, was created. These joint hazard surfaces and hazard maps can be used in a multi-hazard design or risk assessment framework to consider the combined effects of hurricane wind and surge.     

Hurricane wind risk in Louisiana

A statistical procedure for estimating the risk of strong winds from hurricanes, known as the Hurricane Risk Calculator, is demonstrated and applied to several major cities in Louisiana. The procedure provides an estimate of wind risk over different length periods and can be applied to any location experiencing this hazard. Results show that an area 100 km around the city of New Orleans can expect to see hurricane winds blowing at 49 ms^?1 (44.3–53.7) [90 % confidence interval (CI)] or stronger, on average, once every 20 years. In comparison, for the same time period, the capital city of Baton Rouge and the surrounding area can expect to see hurricane winds of 43 ms^?1 (38.2–47.8) (90 % CI) or stronger. Hurricane track direction is also analyzed at the cities of interest. For Morgan City, Lafayette, Lake Charles, and Alexandria, tropical cyclones with winds at least 18 ms^?1 travel from the southeast to northwest. New Orleans and Baton Rouge tropical cyclones have a greater tendency to turn toward the east while within 100 km of the city, historically giving them a southwesterly approach. Tropical cyclones within 350 km off the south-central Louisiana coast occur most often in September, and the most extreme of these events are becoming stronger through time as shown with quantile regression.     

Marine and estuarine reservoir effects in central Queensland,Australia: Determination of ΔR values

As a component of archaeological investigations on the central Queensland coast, a series of five marine shell specimens live‐collected between A.D. 1904 and A.D. 1929 and 11 shell/charcoal paired samples from archaeological contexts were radiocarbon dated to determine local ΔR values. The object of the study was to assess the potential influence of localized variation in marine reservoir effect in accurately determining the age of marine and estuarine shell from archaeological deposits in the area. Results indicate that the routinely applied ΔR value of −5 ± 35 for northeast Australia is erroneously calculated. The determined values suggest a minor revision to Reimer and Reimer's (2000) recommended value for northeast Australia from ΔR = +11 ± 5 to +12 ± 7, and specifically for central Queensland to ΔR = +10 ± 7, for near‐shore open marine environments. In contrast, data obtained from estuarine shell/charcoal pairs demonstrate a general lack of consistency, suggesting estuary‐specific patterns of variation in terrestrial carbon input and exchange with the open ocean. Preliminary data indicate that in some estuaries, at some time periods, a ΔR value of more than −155 ± 55 may be appropriate. In estuarine contexts in central Queensland, a localized estuary‐specific correction factor is recommended to account for geographical and temporal variation in ¹⁴C activity. © 2002 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Temporal and Spatial Dynamics of Estuarine Shoreline Change in the Albemarle-Pamlico Estuarine System,North Carolina,USA

Many shoreline studies rely on historical change rates determined from aerial imagery decades to over 50 years apart to predict shoreline position and determine setback distances for coastal structures. These studies may not illustrate the coastal impacts of short-duration but potentially high-impact storm events. In this study, shoreline change rates (SCRs) are quantified at five different sites ranging from marsh to sediment bank shorelines around the Albemarle-Pamlico estuarine system (APES) for a series of historical (decadal to 50-year) and short-term (bimonthly) time periods as well as for individual storm events. Long-term (historical) SCRs of approximately ?0.5 ± 0.07 m year^?1 are observed, consistent with previous work along estuarine shorelines in North Carolina. Short-term SCRs are highly variable, both spatially and temporally, and ranged from 15.8 ± 7.5 to ?19.3 ± 11.5 m year^?1 at one of the study sites. The influence of wave climate on the spatial and temporal variability of short-term erosion rates is investigated using meteorological observations and coupled hydrodynamic (Delft3D) and wave (SWAN) models. The models are applied to simulate hourly variability in the surface waves and water levels. The results indicate that in the fetch-limited APES, wind direction strongly influences the wave climate at the study sites. The wave height also has an influence on short-term SCRs as determined from the wave simulations for individual meteorological events, but no statistical correlation is found for wave height and SCRs over the long term. Despite the significantly higher rates of shoreline erosion over short time periods and from individual events like hurricanes, the cumulative impact over long time periods is low. Therefore, while the short-term response of these shorelines to episodic forcing should be taken into account in management plans, the long-term trends commonly used in ocean shoreline management can also be used to determine erosion setbacks on estuarine shorelines.     

Seismic hazard across Bulgaria and neighbouring areas: extreme magnitude recurrence and strong ground shaking

A contemporary probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) study for Bulgaria and the surrounding Balkan area is performed under constraints of a newly developed, fit-for-purpose historical earthquake catalogue and the theory of extreme values. Sensitivity analyses are first adopted as preparatory reviews on subsets of the adopted data to determine suitable values for the constraints of cut-off magnitude threshold, sample extreme interval and start year of catalogue data to impose on the parent database for both the full region considered as well as significant urban centres within it. Maximum estimates are then determined for magnitude recurrence hazard using Gumbel’s third asymptotic extreme values distribution for return periods of 50 and 100 years, and also these time intervals at 90 % probability of not being exceeded (PNBE). Gumbel’s first asymptotic extreme values distribution is also used with carefully selected, geographically relevant ground motion models for peak horizontal ground acceleration, PGA(h), and peak horizontal ground velocity, PGV(h), for the same return periods. The former provides direct comparison with the current EUROCODE 8 anti-seismic building code standard promoted across Europe, the previous GSHAP and SESAME hazard mapping projects as well as a number of recent studies. Sofia is forecast an upper bound magnitude of 7.33 M _w (±0.78) compared with 7.31 M _w (±0.55) for the full Balkan extent and 7.24 M _w (±0.70) for the political triple junction area of southwest Bulgaria, viz., Bulgaria, Greece and The Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia. Sofia is also forecast a 475-year return period (equivalent to a 50-year return period at 90 % PNBE) magnitude of 7.27 M _w, with an equivalent PGA (the standard EUROCODE 8 metric) of 156 cm s^?2 and PGV of 13 cm s^?1.     

Wind erosion occurrence probabilities maps in the watershed of the Ningxia–Inner Mongolia reach of the Yellow River,China

The watershed of the Ningxia–Inner Mongolia reach of the Yellow River suffers serious wind erosion hazards and the areas with high wind erosion probabilities need to be identified to help in the building of the correct wind-sand blown hazard protection systems. In this study, the Integrated Wind-Erosion Modelling System model and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) data set were used to identify the distributions of threshold wind speeds and wind erosion occurrence probabilities. Through field observations, the relationships among NDVI, vegetation cover, frontal area (lateral cover), roughness length, and threshold friction velocity were obtained. Then, using these relationships, the spatial distributions of threshold wind speeds for wind erosion at a height of 10 m for the different months were mapped. The results show that the threshold wind speed ranged from 7.91 to 35.7 m/s. Based on the threshold wind speed distributions, the wind erosion occurrence probabilities of different months were calculated according to the current wind speed. The results show that the distributions of wind erosion occurrence probabilities and threshold wind speeds were related to each other. The resulting maps of threshold wind speeds and wind erosion occurrence probabilities would help environmental and agricultural researchers in determining some strategies for mitigating or adapting from wind erosion hazards.     

Future variability of droughts in three Mediterranean catchments

This study investigates the intensity change in typhoons and storm surges surrounding the Korean Peninsula under global warming conditions as obtained from the MPI_ECHAM5 climate model using the A1B series. The authors use the Cyclostationary Empirical Orthogonal Function to estimate future background fields for typhoon simulations from twenty-first-century prediction results. A series of numerical experiments applies WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting) and POM (Prinston Ocean Model) models to simulate two historical typhoons, Maemi (2003) and Rusa (2002), and associated storm surges under real historical and future warming conditions. Applying numerical experiments to two typhoons, this study found that their central pressure dropped about 19 and 17 hPa, respectively, when considering the future sea surface temperature (a warming of 3.9 °C for 100 years) over the East China Sea (Exp. 1). The associated enhancement of storm surge height ranged from 16 to 67 cm along the southern coast of the Korean Peninsula. However, when the study considered global warming conditions for other atmospheric variables such as sea-level pressure, air temperature, relative humidity, geopotential height, and wind in the typhoon simulations (Exp. 2), the intensities of the two typhoons and their associated surge heights scarcely increased compared to the results of Exp. 1. Analyzing projected atmospheric variables, the authors found that air temperatures at the top of the storm around 200 hPa increased more than those at the surface in tropical and mid-latitudes. The reduced vertical temperature difference provided an unfavorable condition in the typhoon’s development even under conditions of global warming. This suggests that global warming may not always correlate with a large increase in the number of intense cyclones and/or an increase in associated storm surges.     

Mapping Shoreline Variability of Two Barrier Island Segments Along the Florida Coast

Recent projections of global climate change necessitate improved methodologies that quantify shoreline variability. Updated analyses of shoreline movement provide important information that can aid and inform likely intervention policies. This paper uses the Analyzing Moving Boundaries Using R (AMBUR) technique to evaluate shoreline change trends over the time period 1856 to 2015. Special emphasis was placed on recent rates of change, during the 1994 to 2015 period of active storm conditions. Small segments, on the order of tens of kilometers, along two sandy barrier island regions on Florida’s Gulf and Atlantic coasts were chosen for this study. The overall average rate of change over the 159-year period along Little St. George Island was ??0.62?±?0.12 m/year, with approximately 65% of shoreline segments eroding and 35% advancing. During periods of storm clustering (1994–2015), retreat rates along portions of this Gulf coast barrier accelerated to ??5.49?±?1.4 m/year. Along the northern portion of Merritt Island on Florida’s Atlantic coast, the overall mean rate of change was 0.22?±?0.08 m/year, indicative of a shoreline in a state of relative dynamic equilibrium. In direct contrast with the Gulf coast shoreline segment, the majority of transects (65%) evaluated along the oceanfront of Merritt Island over the long term displayed a seaward advance. Results indicate that episodes of clustered storm activity with fairly quick return intervals generally produce dramatic morphological alteration of the coast and can delay natural beach recovery. Additionally, the data show that tidal inlet dynamics, shoreline orientation, along with engineering projects, act over a variety of spatial and temporal scales to influence shoreline evolution. Further, the trends of shoreline movement observed in this study indicate that nearshore bathymetry—the presence of shoals—wields some influence on the behavior of local segments of the shoreline.     

Rainfall-induced shallow landslides caused by ex-Tropical Cyclone Debbie, 31st March 2017

Every year, Australia experiences tropical cyclones that bring large amounts of rainfall, causing flooding and damage to infrastructure and road closure due to landslips. In March 2017, tropical cyclone Debbie hit the Queensland coast dumping 747 mm of rainfall within 2 days to the Gold Coast region. As a result, multiple shallow landslides occurred in Gold Coast and northern New South Wales due to the increase in soil saturation. A field investigation was conducted from several sites between Gold Coast-Springbrook road and Tallebudgera creek road to identify geological settings and landslide characteristics. Key findings show that slides predominantly occurred in weathered meta-sediments of the Neranleigh-Fernvale Beds within a depth of 1–2 m. Furthermore, a series of shear box tests revealed that the shear strength of the soil significantly decreased when saturation occurred.     

Impacts of sea-level rise and urbanization on groundwater availability and sustainability of coastal communities in semi-arid South Texas

The sea levels along the semi-arid South Texas coast are noted to have risen by 3–5 mm/year over the last five decades. Data from General Circulation Models (GCMs) indicate that this trend will continue in the 21st century with projected sea level rise in the order of 1.8–5.9 mm/year due to the melting of glaciers and thermal ocean expansion. Furthermore, the temperature in South Texas is projected to increase by as much as 4 °C by the end of the 21st century creating a greater stress on scarce water resources of the region. Increased groundwater use hinterland due to urbanization as well as rising sea levels due to climate change impact the freshwater-saltwater interface in coastal aquifers and threaten the sustainability of coastal communities that primarily rely on groundwater resources. The primary goal of this study was to develop an integrated decision support framework to assist land and water planners in coastal communities to assess the impacts of climate change and urbanization. More specifically, the developed system was used to address whether coastal side (primarily controlled by climate change) or landward side processes (controlled by both climate change and urbanization) had a greater control on the saltwater intrusion phenomenon. The decision support system integrates a sharp-interface model with information from GCMs and observed data and couples them to statistical and information-theoretic uncertainty analysis techniques. The developed decision support system is applied to study saltwater intrusion characteristics at a small coastal community near Corpus Christi, TX. The intrusion characteristics under various plausible climate and urbanization scenarios were evaluated with consideration given to uncertainty and variability of hydrogeologic parameters. The results of the study indicate that low levels of climate change have a greater impact on the freshwater-saltwater interface when the level of urbanization is low. However, the rate of inward intrusion of the saltwater wedge is controlled more so by urbanization effects than climate change. On a local (near coast) scale, the freshwater-saltwater interface was affected by groundwater production locations more so than the volume produced by the community. On a regional-scale, the sea level rise at the coast was noted to have limited impact on saltwater intrusion which was primarily controlled by freshwater influx from the hinterlands towards the coast. These results indicate that coastal communities must work proactively with planners from the up-dip areas to ensure adequate freshwater flows to the coast. Field monitoring of this parameter is clearly warranted. The concordance analysis indicated that input parameter sensitivity did not change across modeled scenarios indicating that future data collection and groundwater monitoring efforts should not be hampered by noted divergences in projected climate and urbanization patterns.     

Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis for Kakrapar atomic power station, Gujarat, India

Seismic ground motion caused by earthquakes mainly affects the constructions and structures around its area of influence. In this context, the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) is a scientific step towards the safety analysis of any major construction such as nuclear power plant. Thus, the present study focused to estimate seismic hazard level at different probabilities for Kakrapar nuclear power plant located in the Western India. The hazard curves for the study area are developed following the procedure of PSHA suggested by Cornell–McGuire. Three source zones, Narmada-Tapti zone (NTZ), Rann of Kuchchh (ROK), and west passive margin (WPM), are classified on the basis of seismicity and tectonic setting of the study area. The estimated maximum magnitude (m _max) for NTZ, ROK, and WPM are 6.9 ± 0.57, 6.5 ± 0.64, and 6.1 ± 0.64, respectively. Logic tree approach has been used for the development of hazard curves to account the epistemic uncertainties associated with the analysis. For maximum credible earthquake [MCE, i.e., the probability of exceedance of 2 % in 50 years (return period of ~2,500 years)], the peak spectral acceleration (i.e., PSA at 0.2 s) expected around 5 km of the Kakrapar nuclear power plant (site) is 0.23 g from all source zones; however, at exact site location, it is 0.18 g. The PSA values due to NTZ, ROK, and WPM based on MCE are 0.22, 0.065, and 0.052 g, respectively. In case of design-based earthquake (DBE, i.e., 50 % probability in 50 years (return period of ~110 years)), the calculated maximum spectral acceleration (SA) from all source zones is about 0.045 g. The PSA distribution for the DBE from the NTZ has reached a maximum value of 0.042 g; however, PSA for ROK and WPM is considerably low with a maximum value of 0.022 and 0.021 g, respectively. Considering the MCE and DBE, the estimated PSA at 0.2 s has a highest value of ~0.23 g from all source zones. Spectral accelerations (SAs) correspond to different periods are presented, and SA plots for NTZ zone can be considered as response spectra for the KAPS site. Deaggregation of PSHA in the present study is also discussed. PGA values reported in seismic zonation map and global seismic hazard analysis program around the present study area range from 0.05 to 0.2 g which is slightly lower than the peak acceleration obtained in this study. The results of this study would facilitate in the performance of the site-specific seismic probabilistic safety analysis.     

Relationships between typhoons,climate and crime rates in Taiwan

The literature indicates climate change is likely to cause more frequent and intense extreme weather events along with higher temperatures and altered precipitation. Taiwan frequently suffers from extremes in the form of typhoons, and their effects threaten both social stability and public security. Temperature effects through climate change are also expected to alter crime rates. We examine the immediate and longer-run impacts of typhoons and other climate variables on crime rates in Taiwan. The immediate results suggest that typhoon intensity has a significantly negative influence on rates of crime, including all violent crimes and automobile thefts. They also show that warmer temperatures have a strong positive effect on all violent crimes and all the subtypes of violent crimes. In addition, longer duration typhoons increase the immediate rates of all violent crimes, automobile thefts and muggings while decreasing the rate of burglaries. In the long run, we find that typhoon intensity, duration and landfall have persistent, lagged effects on crime that vary from negative to positive. For example, strong-intensity typhoons have significantly negative lagged effects on crimes 3–5 months in the future but positive lagged effects on crimes in future months 6–9. Finally, projections under the IPCC climate change scenarios show all violent crimes will increase.     

Late Quaternary climates of Australia and New Guinea

Between 60,000 and 40,000 B.P., northeastern Queensland, south New South Wales, and southeastern South Australia were drier than at present. From 40,000–30,000 B.P. a colder climate than at present is indicated from one New Guinea area. Dryness became even more accentuated in northeastern Queensland, whereas many lakes filled up in the southern mainland, probably because of increasing precipitation effectiveness there. Before the end of this period colder conditions than now were already giving rise to slope instability in the Snowy Mountains of New South Wales.The period of 25,000–15,000 B.P. saw the greatest lowering of the New Guinea treeline, reaching an extreme at 17,000 B.P. when glaciers also achieved their maximum extent. This was the time of extensive glaciation in Tasmania and small glaciers formed in the Snowy Mountains. Estimates of the lowering of mean annual temperature range from 6°–10°C. Northeastern Queensland experienced its driest Late Quaternary climate; lakes were contracting throughout the southern mainland and the final phase of substantial desert dune building took place before the period ended.In the Snowy Mountains ice retreat began before 20,000 B.P., as did the construction of clay dunes in the southern semi-arid belt, a process demanding higher temperatures. However, in New Guinea and Tasmania ice retreat and treeline rise did not begin till after 15,000 B.P. Temperatures rose rapidly and everywhere most of the ice had gone by 10,000 B.P., when some lakes filled up in southern Australia, implying an increase in absolute precipitation.In the last 10,000 years climate has been relatively stable although there are some indications that temperature and rainfall were marginally higher than now between 8000 and 5000 B.P. Since then, lake levels have oscillated; a brief, limited resumption of periglacial activity took place in the Snowy Mountains and there were small glacier advances in New Guinea.     

U–Pb TIMS age constraints on the evolution of the Neoproterozoic Meatiq Gneiss Dome,Eastern Desert,Egypt

Ages are used to constrain the temporal evolution of the Meatiq Gneiss Dome, Eastern Desert, Egypt, by dating (ID-TIMS) pre-, syn-, and post-tectonic igneous rocks in and around the dome. The Um Ba’anib Orthogneiss, comprising the deepest exposed structural levels of the dome, has a crystallization age of 630.8 ± 2 Ma. The overlying mylonites are interpreted to be a thrust sheet/complex (Abu Fannani Thrust Sheet) of highly mylonitized metasediments (?), migmatitic amphibolites, and orthogneisses with large and small tectonic lenses of less-deformed intrusives. Two syn-tectonic diorite lenses in this complex have crystallization ages of 609.0 ± 1.0 and 605.8 ± 0.9 Ma, respectively. The syn-tectonic Abu Ziran diorite, cutting across the tectonic contact between mylonite gneisses of the Abu Fannani Thrust Sheet and a structurally overlying thrust sheet of eugeoclinal rocks (“Pan-African nappe”), has a magmatic emplacement age of 606.4 ± 1.0 Ma. Zircons from a gabbro (Fawakhir ophiolite) within the eugeoclinal thrust sheet yielded a crystallization age of 736.5 ± 1.2 Ma. The post-tectonic Fawakhir monzodiorite intrudes the ophiolitic rocks and has an emplacement age of 597.8 ± 2.9 Ma. Two other post-tectonic granites, the Arieki granite that intrudes the foliated Um Ba’anib Orthogneiss, and the Um Had granite that cuts the deformed Hammamat sediments, have emplacement ages of 590 ± 3.1 and 596.3 ± 1.7 Ma, respectively. We consider formation of the Meatiq Gneiss Dome to be a young structural feature (<631 Ma), and our preferred tectonic interpretation is that it formed as a result of NE–SW shortening contemporaneous with folding of the nearby Hammamat sediments around 605–600 Ma, during oblique collision of East and West Gondwana.     

Simulation of water levels and extent of coastal inundation due to a cyclonic storm along the east coast of India

The devastation due to storm surge flooding caused by extreme wind waves generated by the cyclones is a severe apprehension along the coastal regions of India. In order to coexist with nature’s destructive forces in any vulnerable coastal areas, numerical ocean models are considered today as an essential tool to predict the sea level rise and associated inland extent of flooding that could be generated by a cyclonic storm crossing any coastal stretch. For this purpose, the advanced 2D depth-integrated (ADCIRC-2DDI) circulation model based on finite-element formulation is configured for the simulation of surges and water levels along the east coast of India. The model is integrated using wind stress forcing, representative of 1989, 1996, and 2000 cyclones, which crossed different parts of the east coast of India. Using the long-term inventory of cyclone database, synthesized tracks are deduced for vulnerable coastal districts of Tamil Nadu. Return periods are also computed for the intensity and frequency of cyclones for each coastal district. Considering the importance of Kalpakkam region, extreme water levels are computed based on a 50-year return period data, for the generation of storm surges, induced water levels, and extent of inland inundation. Based on experimental evidence, it is advocated that this region could be inundated/affected by a storm with a threshold pressure drop of 66 hpa. Also it is noticed that the horizontal extent of inland inundation ranges between 1 and 1.5 km associated with the peak surge. Another severe cyclonic storm in Tamil Nadu (November 2000 cyclone), which made landfall approximately 20 km south of Cuddalore, has been chosen to simulate surges and water levels. Two severe cyclonic storms that hit Andhra coast during 1989 and 1996, which made landfall near Kavali and Kakinada, respectively, are also considered and computed run-up heights and associated water levels. The simulations exhibit a good agreement with available observations from the different sources on storm surges and associated inundation caused by these respective storms. It is believed that this study would help the coastal authorities to develop a short- and long-term disaster management, mitigation plan, and emergency response in the event of storm surge flooding.     

Quantitative assessment of the contributions of climate change and human activities on global grassland degradation

Grassland degradation received considerable concern because of its adverse impact on agronomic productivity and its capacity to provide goods and service. Climate change and human activities are commonly recognized as the two broad underlying drivers that lead to grassland degradation. In this study, a comprehensive method based on net primary productivity (NPP) was introduced to assess quantitatively the relative roles of climate change and human perturbations on worldwide grassland degradation from 2000 to 2010. The results revealed that at a global scale, 49.25 % of grassland ecosystems experienced degradation. Nearly 5 % of these grasslands experienced strong to extreme significant degradation. Climate change was the dominant cause that resulted in 45.51 % of degradation compared with 32.53 % caused by human activities. On the contrary, 39.40 % of grassland restoration was induced by human interferences, and 30.6 % was driven by climate change. The largest area of degradation and restoration both occurred in Asia. NPP losses ranged between 1.40 Tg C year^?1 (in North America) and 13.61 Tg C year^?1 (in Oceania) because of grassland degradation. Maximum NPP increase caused by restoration was 17.57 Tg C year^?1 (in North America). Minimum NPP was estimated at 1.59 Tg C year^?1 (in Europe). The roles of climate change and human activities on degradation and restoration were not consistent at continental level. Grassland ecosystems in the southern hemisphere were more vulnerable and sensitive to climate change. Therefore, climate change issues should be gradually integrated into future policies and plans for domestic grassland management and administration.     

Passive-margin prolonged volcanism,East Australian Plate: outbursts,progressions, plate controls and suggested causes

Prolonged intraplate volcanism along the 4000 km-long East Australian margin for ca 100 Ma raises many genetic questions. Studies of the age-progressive pulses embedded in general basaltic activity have spawned a host of models. Zircon U–Pb dating of inland Queensland central volcanoes gives a stronger database to consider the structure and origin of Australian age-progressive volcanic chains. This assists appraisal of this volcanism in relation to plate motion and plate margin tectonic models. Inland Queensland central volcanoes progressed south-southeast from 34 to 31 Ma (～5.4 cm/yr) until a surge in activity led to irregular southerly progression 31 to 28 Ma. A new inland southeastern Queensland central volcano line (25 to 22 Ma), from Bunya Mountains to North Main Range, followed 3 Ma behind the adjacent coastal progression. The Australian and Tasman Sea age-progressive chains are compared against recent plate motion modelling (Indian Ocean hotspots). The chain lines differ from general vector traces owing to west-facing swells and cessations in activity. Tectonic processes on the eastern plate margin may regulate these irregularities. These include subduction, rapid roll-back and progressive detachment of the Loyalty slab (43 to 15 Ma). West-flowing Pacific-type asthenosphere, related to perturbed mantle convection, may explain the west-facing volcanic surges. Such westward Pacific flow for over 28 Ma is known at the Australian–Antarctic Discordance, southeast of the present Australian plume sites under Bass Strait–West Tasman Sea. Most basaltic activity along eastern Australia marks asthenospheric melt injections into Tasman rift zone mantle and not lithospheric plate speed. The young (post-10 Ma) fields (Queensland, Victoria–South Australia) reflect new plate couplings, which altered mantle convection and stress regimes. These areas receive asthenospheric inputs from deep thermal zones off northeast Queensland and under Bass Strait.