Shallow structure beneath the Central Volcanic Complex of Tenerife from new gravity data: Implications for its evolution and recent reactivation

We present a new local Bouguer anomaly map of the Central Volcanic Complex (CVC) of Tenerife, Spain, constructed from the amalgamation of 323 new high precision gravity measurements with existing gravity data from 361 observations. The new anomaly map images the high-density core of the CVC and the pronounced gravity low centred in the Las Cañadas caldera in greater detail than previously available. Mathematical construction of a sub-surface model from the local anomaly data, employing a 3D inversion based on “growing” the sub-surface density distribution via the aggregation of cells, enables mapping of the shallow structure beneath the complex, giving unprecedented insights into the sub-surface architecture. We find the resultant density distribution in agreement with geological and other geophysical data. The modelled sub-surface structure supports a vertical collapse origin of the caldera, and maps the headwall of the ca. 180 ka Icod landslide, which appears to lie buried beneath the Pico Viejo–Pico Teide stratovolcanic complex. The results allow us to put into context the recorded ground deformation and gravity changes at the CVC during its reactivation in spring 2004 in relation to its dominant structural building blocks. For example, the areas undergoing the most significant changes at depth in recent years are underlain by low-density material and are aligned along long-standing structural entities, which have shaped this volcanic ocean island over the past few million years.     

Numerical Simulation of Mesoscale Circulations in a Region of Contrasting Soil Types

Mesoscale processes that form due to changes in surface characteristics play a dominant role in the development of the planetary boundary layer structure and the formation of convection. In this study, effects of the Sandhills region of North and South Carolina on mesoscale processes are examined. Climatological analyses indicate increased convective precipitation in this location as compared to the surrounding region. This is believed to be due to enhanced convection induced by horizontal heat flux gradients caused by sharp changes in soil type and hence the heat capacity of the soil. Simulations using a non-hydrostatic mesoscale model (MM5 version 3.3) were made for a non-precipitation case with a 5-km resolution domain centered over the Carolinas from August 15, 2000 to August 18, 2000. The results showed the existence of a mesoscale circulation over the Sandhills region. Differential heating induced by contrasting soil types dividing the Coastal Plain from the central Piedmont causes this circulation. Sea-breeze circulation often combines with the Sandhills circulation to initiate convection in this region. Diurnal variations are handled well by the model indicating that the thermodynamic structure of the atmosphere is well simulated.     

Characterization of Damage in Sandstones along the Mojave Section of the San Andreas Fault: Implications for the Shallow Extent of Damage Generation

Following theoretical calculations that suggest shallow generation of rock damage during an earthquake rupture, we measure the degree of fracture damage in young sedimentary rocks from the Juniper Hills Formation (JHF) that were displaced 21 km along the Mojave section of San Andreas Fault (SAF) and were not exhumed significantly during their displacement. In exposures adjacent to the fault, the JHF typically displays original sedimentary fabrics and little evidence of bulk shear strain at the mesoscopic scale. The formation is, however, pervasively fractured at the microscopic scale over a zone that is about a 100 m wide on the southwest side of the SAF near Little Rock. The abundance of open fractures, the poor consolidation, and the shallow inferred burial depth imply that the damage was generated close to the surface of the Earth. The spatial correlation of this damage with a seismically active trace of the SAF suggests that it was generated by SAF slip events that by assumption were of a seismic nature throughout the displacement history of the JHF. Thus the JHF provides a very shallow upper bound for the generation of brittle damage in a seismic fault zone. The fracture fabric is characterized by preferred orientations of fractures that split grains between contact points and is consistent with overall deformation under directed compression. However, the available results cannot be used to distinguish between proposed off-fault damage mechanisms. Fracture orientations are compatible with a maximum compressive stress oriented at a high angle to the fault at about 10 m, and at a lower, more variable angle farther away from the fault. The fracture distribution and fabric are consistent with observations made of the microscale damage characteristics of the Hungry Valley Formation in the northwestern section of the SAF in the Mojave, and with previous observations of exhumed, ancestral strands of the SAF.     

Seasonal Sensitivity on COBEL-ISBA Local Forecast System for Fog and Low Clouds

Skillful low visibility forecasts are essential for air-traffic managers to effectively regulate traffic and to optimize air-traffic control at international airports. For this purpose, the COBEL-ISBA local numerical forecast system has been implemented at Paris CDG international airport. This local approach is robust owing to the assimilation of detailed local observations. However, even with dedicated observations and initialization, uncertainties remain in both initial conditions and mesoscale forcings. The goal of the research presented here is to address the sensitivity of COBEL-ISBA forecast to initial conditions and mesoscale forcings during the winter season 2002–2003. The main sources of uncertainty of COBEL-ISBA input parameters have been estimated and the evaluation of parameter uncertainty on the forecasts has been studied. A budget strategy is applied during the winter season to quantify COBEL-ISBA sensitivity. This study is the first step toward building a local ensemble prediction system based on COBEL-ISBA. The conclusions of this work point out the potential for COBEL-ISBA ensemble forecasting and quantify sources of uncertainty that lead to dispersion.     

Observations and Numerical Simulations of Urban Heat Island and Sea Breeze Circulations over New York City

Observations from two SOund Detection And Ranging (SODAR) units, a 10 m micrometeorological tower and five Automated Surface Observing Stations (ASOS) were examined during several synoptic scale flow regimes over New York City after the World Trade Center disaster on September 11, 2001. An ARPS model numerical simulation was conducted to explore the complex mesoscale boundary layer structure over New York City. The numerical investigation examined the urban heat island, urban roughness effect and sea breeze structure over the New York City region. Estimated roughness lengths varied from 0.7 m with flow from the water to 4 m with flow through Manhattan. A nighttime mixed layer was observed over lower Manhattan, indicating the existence of an urban heat island. The ARPS model simulated a sea-breeze front moving through lower Manhattan during the study period consistent with the observations from the SODARs and the 10-m tower observations. Wind simulations showed a slowing and cyclonic turning of the 10-m air flow as the air moved over New York City from the ocean. Vertical profiles of simulated TKE and wind speeds showed a maximum in TKE over lower Manhattan during nighttime conditions. It appears that this TKE maximum is directly related to the influences of the urban heat island.     

The Role of Clouds: An Introduction and Rapporteur Report

This paper presents an overview of discussions during the Cloud’s Role session at the Observing and Modelling Earth’s Energy Flows Workshop. N. Loeb and B. Soden convened this session including 10 presentations by B. Stevens, B. Wielicki, G. Stephens, A. Clement, K. Sassen, D. Hartmann, T. Andrews, A. Del Genio, H. Barker, and M. Sugi addressing critical aspects of the role of clouds in modulating Earth energy flows. Presentation topics covered a diverse range of areas from cloud microphysics and dynamics, cloud radiative transfer, and the role of clouds in large-scale atmospheric circulations patterns in both observations and atmospheric models. The presentations and discussions, summarized below, are organized around several key questions raised during the session. (1) What is the best way to evaluate clouds in climate models? (2) How well do models need to represent clouds to be acceptable for making climate predictions? (3) What are the largest uncertainties in clouds? (4) How can these uncertainties be reduced? (5) What new observations are needed to address these problems? Answers to these critical questions are the topics of ongoing research and will guide the future direction of this area of research.     

Accounting for Temporal Variations in Large-Scale Retrospective Studies of Agricultural Chemicals in Ground Water

Ground water studies that require long data collection periods may be affected by temporal changes in ground water chemistry. Seasonal fluctuations in ground water chemistry are particularly apparent in shallow aquifers. Of specific interest is the inclusion of temporal variability in the design of statistical surveys of agricultural chemicals in well water. Statistical treatment of temporal variability involves selecting a probability sample from temporal units. The selection strategy may include repeating the same spatial units in each temporal stratum or choosing an independent sample of spatial units for each temporal stratum. The appropriate strategy depends on the specific study objectives. Failure to account for temporal variability may compromise the validity of study conclusions. An example of a large-scale retrospective survey designed to estimate temporal averages of water quality across all wells is presented.     

奇村热田与水化动态分析

通过对山西省奇村热田基本状况的调查研究,提出了奇村热田区周围冷井大量连续抽水会对热田造成一定影响的观点,探讨了1991年水氡、水温、水位产生大幅度异常变化的原因。     

A Simple and Affordable System for Installing Shallow Drive Point Piezometers

This paper describes a drive point system for installing small‐diameter (15 to 25 mm ID) piezometers to depths of several metres in unconsolidated sediments. The system fills the gap between (1) heavy duty drive point systems powered by drilling rig hydraulics or air hammers that are capable of installing large diameter drive points to depths of many tens of metres and (2) manually driven systems that typically install 10 mm ID or smaller tubing to depths of <2 m. Unlike many existing systems, which install piezometers inside an outer casing that is later removed, our system protects the piezometer screen inside the casing and extends it only once the casing is driven to the desired depth. This avoids clogging of the screen during installation and the risk of creating an annulus around the piezometer, which can provide a preferential pathway for water movement. The piezometer has a larger diameter than most manually driven systems, and thus has a higher yield; it also permits use of most commercially available pressure transducers and electrical conductivity sensors. The piezometers have been successfully installed to depths of up to 6 m using an electric hammer. The system overcomes some issues associated with existing systems and provides the advantages of affordability, rapid installation, mechanical assistance and manual portability.     

Application Procedures for the Electromagnetic Borehole Flowmeter in Shallow Unconfined Aquifers

It is increasingly common for the electromagnetic borehole flowmeter (EBF) to he used to measure hydraulic conductivity (K) distributions in subsurface flow systems. Past applications involving the EBF have been made mostly in confined aquifers (Kabala 1994; Boman et al. 1997; Podgorney and Ritzi 1997; Ruud and Kabala 1997a, 1997b; Flach et al. 2000), and it has been common to set up a flow field around a test well using a small pump that is located near the top of the well screen (Mob, and Young 1993). In thin, unconfined aquifers that exhibit ground water tables near the ground surface and that undergo drawdown during pumping, such a configuration can be problematical because pumping and associated drawdown may effectively isolate the upper portion of the aquifer from the flowmeter. In these instances, a steady-state flow field in the vicinity of the test well may be created using injection rather than pumping, allowing for testing in the otherwise isolated upper portion of the aquifer located near the initial water table position. Using procedures developed by Molz and Young (1993), which were modified for an injection mode application, testing was conducted to determine whether or not the injection mode would provide useful information in a shallow, unconfined aquifer that required the collection of data near the initial water table position. Results indicated that the injection mode for the EBF was well suited for this objective.     

Shallow bias of paleomagnetic inclinations in the Paleozoic and Precambrian

An updated analysis of the global paleomagnetic database shows that the frequency distributions of paleomagnetic inclinations for the Cenozoic and Mesozoic eras (younger than 250 Ma) are compatible with a random geographical sampling of a time-averaged geomagnetic field that closely resembles that of a geocentric axial dipole. In contrast, the frequency distributions of paleomagnetic inclinations for the Paleozoic and Precambrian eras (prior to 250 Ma) are over-represented by shallow inclinations. After discounting obvious secondary causes for the bias, such as from data averaging, sedimentary inclination error, inhomogeneous lithological distributions, and tropical remagnetization, we show that the anomalous inclination distributions for the Paleozoic and Precambrian can be explained by a geomagnetic field source model which includes a relatively modest (25%) contribution to the axial dipole from a zonal octupole field and an arbitrary zonal quadrupolar contribution. The apparent change by around 250 Ma to a much more axial dipolar field geometry might be due to the stabilization of the geodynamo from growth of the inner core to some critical threshold size, a gross speculation which would imply that either the threshold size was rather large or the inner core nucleated rather late in Earth history. Alternatively, if a geocentric axial dipole model is assumed or can eventually be demonstrated independently, the anomalous inclination distributions for the Paleozoic and Precambrian may reflect a tendency of continental lithosphere to be cycled into the equatorial belt, perhaps because geoid highs associated with long-term continental aggregates influence true polar wander.     

Quantifying and Reducing Uncertainty in the Large-Scale Response of the Water Cycle

Despite their obvious environmental, societal and economic importance, our understanding of the causes and magnitude of the variations in the global water cycle is still unsatisfactory. Uncertainties in hydrological predictions from the current generation of models pose a serious challenge to the reliability of forecasts and projections across time and space scales. This paper provides an overview of the current issues and challenges in modelling various aspects of the Earth’s hydrological cycle. These include: the global water budget and water conservation, the role of model resolution and parametrisation of precipitation-generating processes on the representation of the global and regional hydrological cycle, representation of clouds and microphysical processes, rainfall variability, the influence of land–atmosphere coupling on rainfall patterns and their variability, monsoon processes and teleconnections, and ocean and cryosphere modelling. We conclude that continued collaborative activity in the areas of model development across timescales, process studies and climate change studies will provide better understanding of how and why the hydrological cycle may change, and better estimation of uncertainty in model projections of changes in the global water cycle.     

Quality Assessment of the Cobel-Isba Numerical Forecast System of Fog and Low Clouds

Short-term forecasting of fog is a difficult issue which can have a large societal impact. Fog appears in the surface boundary layer and is driven by the interactions between land surface and the lower layers of the atmosphere. These interactions are still not well parameterized in current operational NWP models, and a new methodology based on local observations, an adaptive assimilation scheme and a local numerical model is tested. The proposed numerical forecast method of foggy conditions has been run during three years at Paris-CdG international airport. This test over a long-time period allows an in-depth evaluation of the forecast quality. This study demonstrates that detailed 1-D models, including detailed physical parameterizations and high vertical resolution, can reasonably represent the major features of the life cycle of fog (onset, development and dissipation) up to +6 h. The error on the forecast onset and burn-off time is typically 1 h. The major weakness of the methodology is related to the evolution of low clouds (stratus lowering). Even if the occurrence of fog is well forecasted, the value of the horizontal visibility is only crudely forecasted. Improvements in the microphysical parameterization and in the translation algorithm converting NWP prognostic variables into a corresponding horizontal visibility seems necessary to accurately forecast the value of the visibility.     

Nonlinear interaction of the Tsugaru Warm Current and tide in the Tsugaru Strait

The Tsugaru Strait, which connects the Sea of Japan with the Pacific Ocean, is characterized by the eastward Tsugaru Warm Current (TWC) and oscillating tidal currents of similar magnitude. A 15-day current observation was conducted in one of the two narrow channels in the strait, at the northwest tip of the Shimokita Peninsula. The observation revealed that the spectral energy of the semidiurnal current exceeds that of the diurnal current, contrary to the conventional view. The Tsugaru Strait regional model was developed to study the mechanism of this spectral energy reversal (140–141.5° E, 40.4–42.6° N, 500?m grid resolution). At the eastern and western open boundaries, the model was driven by the constant Tsugaru warm current and tidal elevation, which was adjusted by comparing the model with tidal gauge observations within the channel. The relative magnitude of the spectral energies differed from that of the observation when the model was driven by tide only. However, the spectral energy levels were reversed when the model was driven by both tide and current. The nonlinear interaction of periodic tidal currents and the steady TWC was explained by the vorticity equation, which describes the production and advection of residual currents from tidal currents. According to the model results, flow separation and advection of vorticity by the TWC was the most prominent factor in this phenomenon. Because of the strong nonlinearities, flow separation around the headland occurred during the tidal period with dominant current magnitude and furnished the main difference between the diurnal and semidiurnal interactions. These phenomena were enhanced by the complex topography, and demonstrate the importance of scale interaction, especially when developing high-resolution regional models.     

Analysis of Shallow and Deep Earthquake Doublets in the Fiji-Tonga-Kermadec Region

For the Fiji-Tonga-Kermadec area and for the period from January 1977 to July 2003, the Harvard CMT catalogue lists 1022 shallow, 410 intermediate and 633 deep earthquakes of moment magnitude from 4.9 to 8.0. The magnitude threshold, above which the catalogue is complete, is 5.3–5.4, and the number of earthquakes of magnitude above this value is 691 for shallow, 329 for intermediate and 476 for deep events, respectively. The proportion of earthquakes associated with doublets and multiplets against the total number of earthquakes is approximately the same in both data sets and therefore all earthquake pairs were considered regardless of their magnitude. We investigated all the pairs of earthquakes that occurred at a centroid distance of less than 40, 60 or 90 km from each other and within a time interval of 200, 300 or 450 days, depending on their magnitude. We found 208 pairs of shallow, 31 of intermediate and 92 of deep events. To ascertain whether these earthquakes in pairs are not connected by chance, the possibility of their occurrence in an uncorrelated Poissonian catalogue was considered. It was assumed that in such a catalogue the inter-event time is exponentially distributed, the earthquake magnitude follows the Gutenberg-Richter relation, and the distribution of centroid distances between the events in pairs is controlled by its non-parametric kernel estimate. The probability of the appearance of the observed proportion of doublets of shallow earthquakes in the Poissonian catalogue was found to be very low. The low probability of occurrence in a semi-random catalogue, created by randomising centroid locations in the actual data set, also indicates major importance of the distance criterion used for a doublet specification. In general, shallow earthquakes tend to form pairs at shorter distances and within shorter time intervals than deep earthquakes. Both the distance and the time intervals do not depend on the magnitude of involved events. The largest number of pairs of deep earthquakes is observed at a depth of about 600 km, and the proportion of deep events associated with doublets against the number of all events increases with depth. From comparison of the focal mechanism of earthquakes in pairs, measured by the 3-D rotation angle, it follows that deep earthquakes forming pairs have a more diverse focal mechanism than shallow events; the rotation angle for three quarters of shallow pairs and only for about one third of deep pairs is reasonably small. The azimuth between two events forming a doublet is in about 60–65% of cases close to the strike of one of nodal planes of the first or the second event.