Shallow Circulations: Relevance and Strategies for Satellite Observation

Shallow circulations are central to many tropical cloud systems. We investigate the potential of existing and upcoming data to document these circulations. Different methods to observe or constrain atmospheric circulations rely on satellite-borne instruments. Direct observations of the wind are currently possible at the ocean surface or using tracer patterns. Satellite-borne wind lidar will soon be available, with a much better coverage and accuracy. Meanwhile, circulations can be constrained using satellite observations of atmospheric diabatic heating. We evaluate the commonalities and discrepancies of these estimates together with reanalysis in systems that include shallow circulations. It appears that existing datasets are in qualitative agreement, but that they still differ too much to provide robust evaluation criteria for general circulation models. This state of affairs highlights the potential of satellite-borne wind lidar and of further work on current satellite retrievals.     

Mechanisms and Model Diversity of Trade-Wind Shallow Cumulus Cloud Feedbacks: A Review

Shallow cumulus clouds in the trade-wind regions are at the heart of the long standing uncertainty in climate sensitivity estimates. In current climate models, cloud feedbacks are strongly influenced by cloud-base cloud amount in the trades. Therefore, understanding the key factors controlling cloudiness near cloud-base in shallow convective regimes has emerged as an important topic of investigation. We review physical understanding of these key controlling factors and discuss the value of the different approaches that have been developed so far, based on global and high-resolution model experimentations and process-oriented analyses across a range of models and for observations. The trade-wind cloud feedbacks appear to depend on two important aspects: (1) how cloudiness near cloud-base is controlled by the local interplay between turbulent, convective and radiative processes; (2) how these processes interact with their surrounding environment and are influenced by mesoscale organization. Our synthesis of studies that have explored these aspects suggests that the large diversity of model responses is related to fundamental differences in how the processes controlling trade cumulus operate in models, notably, whether they are parameterized or resolved. In models with parameterized convection, cloudiness near cloud-base is very sensitive to the vigor of convective mixing in response to changes in environmental conditions. This is in contrast with results from high-resolution models, which suggest that cloudiness near cloud-base is nearly invariant with warming and independent of large-scale environmental changes. Uncertainties are difficult to narrow using current observations, as the trade cumulus variability and its relation to large-scale environmental factors strongly depend on the time and/or spatial scales at which the mechanisms are evaluated. New opportunities for testing physical understanding of the factors controlling shallow cumulus cloud responses using observations and high-resolution modeling on large domains are discussed.     

Cumulus dynamics: Local compensating subsidence and its implications for cumulus parameterization

Observations of air flow in and around convective clouds are summarized and discussed in light of the requirements for parameterization of midlatitude convection. Both theory and observation indicate that a substantial portion of the compensating subsidence occurs as dry downdrafts in the immediate vicinity of convective clouds, which suggests that an additional physical mechanism is necessary in linking convection to the large scale. A conceptual three-dimensional model of midlatitude organized convection along with its implications for parameterization, particularly in mesoscale modeling, is presented. The effects of moist downdrafts are also considered and some differences between midlatitude and tropical convection are discussed.     

Shallow structure beneath the Central Volcanic Complex of Tenerife from new gravity data: Implications for its evolution and recent reactivation

We present a new local Bouguer anomaly map of the Central Volcanic Complex (CVC) of Tenerife, Spain, constructed from the amalgamation of 323 new high precision gravity measurements with existing gravity data from 361 observations. The new anomaly map images the high-density core of the CVC and the pronounced gravity low centred in the Las Cañadas caldera in greater detail than previously available. Mathematical construction of a sub-surface model from the local anomaly data, employing a 3D inversion based on “growing” the sub-surface density distribution via the aggregation of cells, enables mapping of the shallow structure beneath the complex, giving unprecedented insights into the sub-surface architecture. We find the resultant density distribution in agreement with geological and other geophysical data. The modelled sub-surface structure supports a vertical collapse origin of the caldera, and maps the headwall of the ca. 180 ka Icod landslide, which appears to lie buried beneath the Pico Viejo–Pico Teide stratovolcanic complex. The results allow us to put into context the recorded ground deformation and gravity changes at the CVC during its reactivation in spring 2004 in relation to its dominant structural building blocks. For example, the areas undergoing the most significant changes at depth in recent years are underlain by low-density material and are aligned along long-standing structural entities, which have shaped this volcanic ocean island over the past few million years.     

Numerical Simulation of Mesoscale Circulations in a Region of Contrasting Soil Types

Mesoscale processes that form due to changes in surface characteristics play a dominant role in the development of the planetary boundary layer structure and the formation of convection. In this study, effects of the Sandhills region of North and South Carolina on mesoscale processes are examined. Climatological analyses indicate increased convective precipitation in this location as compared to the surrounding region. This is believed to be due to enhanced convection induced by horizontal heat flux gradients caused by sharp changes in soil type and hence the heat capacity of the soil. Simulations using a non-hydrostatic mesoscale model (MM5 version 3.3) were made for a non-precipitation case with a 5-km resolution domain centered over the Carolinas from August 15, 2000 to August 18, 2000. The results showed the existence of a mesoscale circulation over the Sandhills region. Differential heating induced by contrasting soil types dividing the Coastal Plain from the central Piedmont causes this circulation. Sea-breeze circulation often combines with the Sandhills circulation to initiate convection in this region. Diurnal variations are handled well by the model indicating that the thermodynamic structure of the atmosphere is well simulated.     

Characterization of Damage in Sandstones along the Mojave Section of the San Andreas Fault: Implications for the Shallow Extent of Damage Generation

Following theoretical calculations that suggest shallow generation of rock damage during an earthquake rupture, we measure the degree of fracture damage in young sedimentary rocks from the Juniper Hills Formation (JHF) that were displaced 21 km along the Mojave section of San Andreas Fault (SAF) and were not exhumed significantly during their displacement. In exposures adjacent to the fault, the JHF typically displays original sedimentary fabrics and little evidence of bulk shear strain at the mesoscopic scale. The formation is, however, pervasively fractured at the microscopic scale over a zone that is about a 100 m wide on the southwest side of the SAF near Little Rock. The abundance of open fractures, the poor consolidation, and the shallow inferred burial depth imply that the damage was generated close to the surface of the Earth. The spatial correlation of this damage with a seismically active trace of the SAF suggests that it was generated by SAF slip events that by assumption were of a seismic nature throughout the displacement history of the JHF. Thus the JHF provides a very shallow upper bound for the generation of brittle damage in a seismic fault zone. The fracture fabric is characterized by preferred orientations of fractures that split grains between contact points and is consistent with overall deformation under directed compression. However, the available results cannot be used to distinguish between proposed off-fault damage mechanisms. Fracture orientations are compatible with a maximum compressive stress oriented at a high angle to the fault at about 10 m, and at a lower, more variable angle farther away from the fault. The fracture distribution and fabric are consistent with observations made of the microscale damage characteristics of the Hungry Valley Formation in the northwestern section of the SAF in the Mojave, and with previous observations of exhumed, ancestral strands of the SAF.     

Rain height statistics for satellite communication in Malaysia

The calculation of fade margin required for 99.99% of the time availability of satellite link requires the knowledge of rain height. There is a shortage of results on rain height over Malaysian equatorial stations. The results on rain height in relation to 0 °C isotherm height (H_i) over four stations are presented. The variations of 0 °C isotherm heights for two monsoon seasons have been studied based on an analysis of radiosonde. The exceedence probability statistics of rain height are compared between the two seasons.     

Seasonal Sensitivity on COBEL-ISBA Local Forecast System for Fog and Low Clouds

Skillful low visibility forecasts are essential for air-traffic managers to effectively regulate traffic and to optimize air-traffic control at international airports. For this purpose, the COBEL-ISBA local numerical forecast system has been implemented at Paris CDG international airport. This local approach is robust owing to the assimilation of detailed local observations. However, even with dedicated observations and initialization, uncertainties remain in both initial conditions and mesoscale forcings. The goal of the research presented here is to address the sensitivity of COBEL-ISBA forecast to initial conditions and mesoscale forcings during the winter season 2002–2003. The main sources of uncertainty of COBEL-ISBA input parameters have been estimated and the evaluation of parameter uncertainty on the forecasts has been studied. A budget strategy is applied during the winter season to quantify COBEL-ISBA sensitivity. This study is the first step toward building a local ensemble prediction system based on COBEL-ISBA. The conclusions of this work point out the potential for COBEL-ISBA ensemble forecasting and quantify sources of uncertainty that lead to dispersion.     

中国东北地区浅源地震活跃期特征分析

从中国东北地区不同活跃期深源地震、 浅源地震的能量释放、 持续时间, 活跃期关门地震时间韵律, 第5活跃期中强地震有序分布图像等角度, 对比分析了中国东北地区第5活跃期的基本特征。 结果表明: 中国东北地区浅源地震第5活跃期能量释放远低于其他几个活跃期, 深震和浅震的能量释放比值大, 持续时间长, 关门地震重演了前4个活跃期的时间韵律, 表现为时间、 空间丛集以及震群性质, 出现空区和条带状有序活动图像, 2013年的7次5.0级以上可能是第5活跃期的结束地震。     

Observations and Numerical Simulations of Urban Heat Island and Sea Breeze Circulations over New York City

Observations from two SOund Detection And Ranging (SODAR) units, a 10 m micrometeorological tower and five Automated Surface Observing Stations (ASOS) were examined during several synoptic scale flow regimes over New York City after the World Trade Center disaster on September 11, 2001. An ARPS model numerical simulation was conducted to explore the complex mesoscale boundary layer structure over New York City. The numerical investigation examined the urban heat island, urban roughness effect and sea breeze structure over the New York City region. Estimated roughness lengths varied from 0.7 m with flow from the water to 4 m with flow through Manhattan. A nighttime mixed layer was observed over lower Manhattan, indicating the existence of an urban heat island. The ARPS model simulated a sea-breeze front moving through lower Manhattan during the study period consistent with the observations from the SODARs and the 10-m tower observations. Wind simulations showed a slowing and cyclonic turning of the 10-m air flow as the air moved over New York City from the ocean. Vertical profiles of simulated TKE and wind speeds showed a maximum in TKE over lower Manhattan during nighttime conditions. It appears that this TKE maximum is directly related to the influences of the urban heat island.     

An Analytical Model for Hydraulic Fracturing in Shallow Bedrock Formations

A theoretical method is proposed to estimate post‐fracturing fracture size and transmissivity, and as a test of the methodology, data collected from two wells were used for verification. This method can be employed before hydrofracturing in order to obtain estimates of the potential hydraulic benefits of hydraulic fracturing. Five different pumping test analysis methods were used to evaluate the well hydraulic data. The most effective methods were the Papadopulos‐Cooper model (1967), which includes wellbore storage effects, and the Gringarten‐Ramey model (1974), known as the single horizontal fracture model. The hydraulic parameters resulting from fitting these models to the field data revealed that as a result of hydraulic fracturing, the transmissivity increased more than 46 times in one well and increased 285 times in the other well. The model developed by dos Santos (2008) , which considers horizontal radial fracture propagation from the hydraulically fractured well, was used to estimate potential fracture geometry after hydrofracturing. For the two studied wells, their fractures could have propagated to distances of almost 175 m or more and developed maximum apertures of about 2.20 mm and hydraulic apertures close to 0.30 mm. Fracturing at this site appears to have expanded and propagated existing fractures and not created new fractures. Hydraulic apertures calculated from pumping test analyses closely matched the results obtained from the hydraulic fracturing model. As a result of this model, post‐fracturing geometry and resulting post‐fracturing well yield can be estimated before the actual hydrofracturing.     

Accounting for Temporal Variations in Large-Scale Retrospective Studies of Agricultural Chemicals in Ground Water

Ground water studies that require long data collection periods may be affected by temporal changes in ground water chemistry. Seasonal fluctuations in ground water chemistry are particularly apparent in shallow aquifers. Of specific interest is the inclusion of temporal variability in the design of statistical surveys of agricultural chemicals in well water. Statistical treatment of temporal variability involves selecting a probability sample from temporal units. The selection strategy may include repeating the same spatial units in each temporal stratum or choosing an independent sample of spatial units for each temporal stratum. The appropriate strategy depends on the specific study objectives. Failure to account for temporal variability may compromise the validity of study conclusions. An example of a large-scale retrospective survey designed to estimate temporal averages of water quality across all wells is presented.     

The Role of Clouds: An Introduction and Rapporteur Report

This paper presents an overview of discussions during the Cloud’s Role session at the Observing and Modelling Earth’s Energy Flows Workshop. N. Loeb and B. Soden convened this session including 10 presentations by B. Stevens, B. Wielicki, G. Stephens, A. Clement, K. Sassen, D. Hartmann, T. Andrews, A. Del Genio, H. Barker, and M. Sugi addressing critical aspects of the role of clouds in modulating Earth energy flows. Presentation topics covered a diverse range of areas from cloud microphysics and dynamics, cloud radiative transfer, and the role of clouds in large-scale atmospheric circulations patterns in both observations and atmospheric models. The presentations and discussions, summarized below, are organized around several key questions raised during the session. (1) What is the best way to evaluate clouds in climate models? (2) How well do models need to represent clouds to be acceptable for making climate predictions? (3) What are the largest uncertainties in clouds? (4) How can these uncertainties be reduced? (5) What new observations are needed to address these problems? Answers to these critical questions are the topics of ongoing research and will guide the future direction of this area of research.     

Rain induced attenuation studies for V-band satellite communication in tropical region

Satellite communications operating at 10 GHz and above in the tropics suffer severe signal degradation due to rain. Attenuation due to rain at 38 GHz had been measured for a period of 20 months in Malaysia. Analyses carried out include seasonal variations, diurnal effects and the annual cumulative distributions. Obtained results were compared with several established prediction models including the ITU-R. The rain fade characteristics were also investigated in determining the levels of signal loss and fading. In addition, the studies highlight several potential fade mitigation techniques that can be embarked. These fundamental aprehensions are very critical for future earth space communication link design and can be exploited as preliminary groundwork plan for the researchers as well as engineers.     

浅层地震资料揭示的驻马店地区上蔡岗断裂浅部构造特征

已有资料显示上蔡岗断裂为隐伏逆断层,为研究上蔡岗断裂浅部构造特征,笔者跨断裂开展高分辨率浅层地震探测,获得4条高分辨率浅层地震剖面。本文根据高分辨率浅层地震剖面,并结合已有地质资料,对上蔡岗断裂浅部特征进行分析和讨论。研究结果表明:上蔡岗断裂为1条走向北北西、倾向北东东的逆断层,在岗地中部存在1条次级断层,与主断层呈反y形构造,与岗地地表形态基本一致。研究结果可为驻马店市地震危险性评价及城市规划提供地质和地球物理学依据。     

奇村热田与水化动态分析

通过对山西省奇村热田基本状况的调查研究,提出了奇村热田区周围冷井大量连续抽水会对热田造成一定影响的观点,探讨了1991年水氡、水温、水位产生大幅度异常变化的原因。