Optimum method of calculation of product distribution from a distributed fracture model

The general assumption that the breakage distribution function is independent of time is critically reviewed. Though this assumption is shown to be generally valid for tumbling mills, introduction of the concept of time-dependent distribution functions is shown to reduce the number of steps required for the calculation of product distribution drastically. It is shown that the optimum time equivalent of a stage of calculation for tumbling mills is the maximum time up to which the parameter C of the model is proportional to time. Then the parameter C evaluated at this time should be used to obtain the distribution function. For attrition it is shown that the time equivalent of a stage equals the whole time of operation and hence the parameter C should be evaluated at the time corresponding to the residence time of particles in the system. A few empirical forms of distribution functions are also given which may be useful where the theoretical expression is not valid.     

A comparison of residence time calculations using simple compartment models of the Altamaha River estuary, Georgia

The residence and flushing times of an estuary are two different concepts that are often confused. Flushing time is the time required for the freshwater inflow to equal the amount of freshwater originally present in the estuary. It is specific to freshwater (or materials dissolved in it) and represents the transit time through the entire system (e.g., from head of tide to the mouth). Residence time is the average time particles take to escape the estuary. It can be calculated for any type of material and will vary depending on the starting location of the material. In the literature, the term residence time is often used to refer to the average freshwater transit time and is calculated as such. Freshwater transit time is a more precise term for a type of residence time (that of freshwater, starting from the head of the estuary), whereas residence time is a more general term that must be clarified by specifying the material and starting distribution. We explored these two mixing time scales in the context of the Altmaha River estuary, Georgia, and present a comparison of techniques for their calculation (fraction of freshwater models and variations of box models). Segmented tidal prism models, another common approach, have data requirements similar to other models but can be cumbersome to implement properly. Freshwater transit time estimates from simple steady-state box models were virtually, identical to flushing times for four river-flow cases, as long as boxes were scaled appropriately to river flow, and residence time estimates from different box models were also in good agreement. Mixing time estimates from box models, were incorrect when boxes were imporperly scaled. Mixing time scales vary nonlinearly with river flow, so characterizing the range as well as the mean or median is important for a thorough understanding of the potential for within-estuary processing. We are now developing an imporved box model that will allow the calculation of a variety of mixing time scales using simulations with daily variable river discharge.     

The possible source of the causal time arrow in geo-historical explanations

My argument in this article, will be that nature, in general, and human nature in particular, suggests that, in principle, it is possible to derive the causal time arrow from several physical time arrows existing in nature and appearing to be unidirectional and irreversible phenomena. A more concrete argument will be that the assumption of a causal time arrow to which geologists resort in all geo-historical explanations, apparently originates in geo-historical time arrows concealed in unidirectional and irreversible physical-geological processes. I will illustrate this claim with a few examples of geo-historical explanations in the theory of plate tectonics, most of which are based on irreversible geo-physical processes. My final argument is a broader, of an epistemological nature, according to which the causal time arrow assumption used in logical-causative explanations in everyday life and in science, apparently “derives” in a way from the geo-historical time arrow. I will base this argument on the causal relationship and mutual influence that occurs in nature between geo-historical and evolutionary processes in animals, including developmental processes of the human brain and mind. From this reductionist argument, nicely integrated in the framework of evolutionary epistemology (EEM), it is possible to derive a wider naturalistic argument according to which, on principle, the laws of geo-historical physics can be reduced to the laws of logic and causality.     

基于斋藤模型的滑坡临滑时间预报方法改进及应用

滑坡临滑时间预报可根据滑坡变形时间曲线来建立,但现有临滑时间预报模型并未统一计算区间,因此相同模型在不同计算区间得出时间预报值可能存在较大差异。以贵州省龙井村滑坡为例,通过分析滑坡精细化变形数据,以斋藤时间预报模型为基础,确定出进行临滑时间预报的变形计算区间为切线角70°~75°之间,并根据变形曲线在临滑时具有明显上翘特征,导致滑坡发生时间提前的特点,通过分析切线角斜率与计算区间斜率的比例关系,引入修正系数0.5对滑坡时间预报值进行修正。通过近年来甘肃黑方台多次黄土滑坡的精细化变形数据进行检验验证,结果表明,改进的滑坡变形临滑时间预报方法具有良好的准确性和一定的普适性,为滑坡时间预报提供了较为准确的新方法。     

A quadrature-free method for simulation and inversion of 1.5D direct current (DC) borehole measurements

Resistivity inverse problems are routinely solved in order to characterize hydrocarbon bearing formations. They often require a large number of forward problems simulations. When considering a one dimensional (1D) planarly layered media, semi-analytical methods can be employed in order to solve a single forward problem in a fraction of a second. However, in some situations, a large number of (over one million) simulations is required, preventing this method to be used as a real time (logging) alternative. In this paper, we propose a novel semi-analytical method that dramatically reduces the total computational time, so it can be employed for real time inversion. In our proposed method, we select an ad hoc basis representation for the spectral solution such that its inverse Hankel transform can be computed analytically. The proposed method requires a pre-process that is expensive when compared with a single evaluation in classical semi-analytical methods. However, subsequent evaluations can be rapidly obtained, decreasing thus the total computational time by orders of magnitude when the number of required forward simulations is large.     

A risk-based approach for crowd evacuation performance evaluation under metro fire

This paper aims to evaluate the crowd evacuation performance in a metro fire by using the limit state equation to describe the egress process. The limit state equation is established by the available time margin in fire evacuation, which comprises the evacuee's response time, behaviour time and movement time to an exit. Here, the available time margin in a fire evacuation is determined by the duration of time the smoke takes to exceed the evacuee's respiration level, the time that the smoke is detected by fire alarm and the time that the evacuee needs to respond and move to an exit during evacuation. Further, Monte Carlo simulation approach has been employed to integrate the fatality rates and the probabilities of occurrence of different scenarios in a typical metro in Xiaobailou station of station-Tianjin Line 1. Through this case study, it is shown that the evacuee's response time, behaviour time and movement time to exits can be integrated in a stochastic process model.     

复杂3D瞬变电磁场FDTD模拟中需要解决的问题

为了实现缓变瞬态电磁场的时域有限差分(FDTD)模拟,引入了虚拟位移电流,使FDTD随时间步的递推能够进行。在以往较简单模型的计算中,利用时域瞬变场传播需要时间的性质,可将激励源化为初始条件代入,但是对于复杂3D模型,原有的方法不再适用,应当重新考虑源和边界条件的处理方法。由于实际源带有“斜坡”,故可采取将激励源模拟注入的方式;地下边界根据电磁波在导电媒质中快速衰减的特性设定,将改进的完全匹配层用于空中边界。分析表明,对于由空中和地下区域非均匀网格离散引起的时间稳定性问题,交替方向隐式FDTD是可行的解决办法。      

Towards rationalism in Precambrian stratigraphy

There is no generally accepted time or time‐rock Precambrian stratigraphy, as there is for the Phanerozoic. Many authors suggest that a time‐rock nomenclature based on similar principles should be used. But no explicit general principles for the erection of major time or time‐rock stratigraphic divisions exist, or have even been used, while the confusion caused by the evolutionary and unsystematic growth of the Phanerozoic systems is admitted. Consequently, geologists dealing with the Precambrian may feel free to choose whatever methods of time subdivision and nomenclature seem most effective, unprejudiced by Phanerozoic precedent. The familiar ones used by historians seem to be more useful for Precambrian rocks and time, if megacenturies (of 10⁸ years, or 10⁶ centuries) are used instead of centuries, than those used in Phanerozoic stratigraphy. The conclusions that: (1) stratigraphic rock units, plus isotopic age determinations to inter‐relate major sequences and events within a numerical time‐scale of years, are together adequate for handling Precambrian stratigraphic problems, and conversely (2) traditional time and time‐rock stratigraphy is superfluous, represent the main thesis of this paper. Although there is no rock unit of system rank the local restriction of systems would overcome this deficiency; the Adelaide System is an example. Three common fallacies are: (1) rocks are the primary standard of reference for time, (2) geological maps cannot be published without time‐rock stratigraphy, and (3) the same type of nomenclature must be used for both Phanerozoic and Precambrian. International cooperation in the adoption of standard rocks for isotopic dating is advisable to promote accurate correlations in the Precambrian.     

Model for Estimation of Time and Cost for Tunnel Projects Based on Risk Evaluation

Summary. In the planning and procurement phases of tunnelling projects, numerous decisions have to be made regarding tender price and budget. Many case studies have shown that, in practice, the predicted costs and time schedules are often exceeded. This paper describes a study of the various risk factors in machine tunnelling and their differing impacts on cost and time. It has been concluded from the study that it is important to make a clear distinction between normal cost and time, and the undesirable events that cause exceptional cost and time. Existing decision-aid estimation models consider variation of the risk factors, but do not consider normal cost or time separately from undesirable events. Usually, estimations of project cost and time are made in a deterministic manner, but this does not allow one to consider uncertainty in cost and time variables. However, if the variables are treated probabilistically, the total cost of tunnelling can be expressed as a distribution curve, and a decision can be made on the tunnelling method by comparing the respective cost and time distributions. Based on such decisions, the budget and tender price can be determined separately, both by the client and contractor respectively. To meet the demands placed on decision-making for tender and procurement for currently favoured construction-contracting methods, a new model for estimating tender price and budget has been developed, and is described in this paper. This estimating technique has been applied to a case study of the Grauholz Tunnel. The predictions obtained from the estimation model are shown to be realistic, as the total construction cost and time obtained from the model correspond fairly well to the actual construction cost and time. The separate estimation of normal cost and time and exceptional cost and time contribute to the clarity of the results. The use of the proposed model also shows that the tunnelling method most suitable for the actual geological and hydrogeological conditions can be selected by this method.     

Investigation of Cycle Time Segments of Dragline Operation in Surface Coal Mine: A Statistical Approach

Dragline is highly capital intensive equipment to procure, operate and maintain in any surface mining operation. Given this, every second of operation of this capital intensive equipment is absolutely important. Improvement of even a single second in the total cycle time has a tremendous bearing on the overall performance of this equipment. In this light, the present paper is an endeavour to critically analyze the cycle time of dragline operations in a major surface coal mine in India. Rigorous statistical analysis has been performed on individual cycle time segments, of complete dragline cycle. The segmental cycle times have been found to be statistically significant and appear to be best represented by lognormal, normal and beta distributions. Furthermore, the mean time of the statistical distribution for segmental cycle time of dragline has revealed the dependence of cycle time on cut geometry and depth. Results have been illustrated in the form of figures, graphs and tables.     

工程活动断裂鉴定的时限标准讨论

鉴定工程活动断裂时限标准的制订需考虑科学性与工程安全性原则。活动断裂时限的确定依赖于对构造活动阶段性与重复性的认识 ,通过对中国大陆晚第四纪以来构造变形与断裂活动性特点的综合分析研究 ,得出了晚更新世晚期 (约距今 3万年 ) ,中国大陆发生了一次广泛的构造变动 ,经历这次构造变动后 ,各地的构造变形特征进入了一个新的阶段 ,其总体活动性质与活动强度没有大的改变 ,这一结果是确定工程活动断裂时限的科学基础。从工程安全性考虑 ,在中国大陆将活动断裂的时限定为晚更新世以来活动过的断裂偏于保守 ;定义为全新世以来活动过的断裂又存在较大的风险。而将晚更新世晚期 (约距今 3万年 )作为鉴定活动断裂的时限从科学意义上有其合理性 ,并符合工程安全性需要。但对一些安全性要求极高的重大工程 ,相关活动断裂的鉴定时限以晚更新世 (约距今 12万年 )为宜     

Blind Source Separation for Compositional Time Series

Many geological phenomena are regularly measured over time to follow developments and changes. For many of these phenomena, the absolute values are not of interest, but rather the relative information, which means that the data are compositional time series. Thus, the serial nature and the compositional geometry should be considered when analyzing the data. Multivariate time series are already challenging, especially if they are higher dimensional, and latent variable models are a popular way to deal with this kind of data. Blind source separation techniques are well-established latent factor models for time series, with many variants covering quite different time series models. Here, several such methods and their assumptions are reviewed, and it is shown how they can be applied to high-dimensional compositional time series. Also, a novel blind source separation method is suggested which is quite flexible regarding the assumptions of the latent time series. The methodology is illustrated using simulations and in an application to light absorbance data from water samples taken from a small stream in Lower Austria.

     

Biot consolidation analysis with automatic time stepping and error control Part 1: theory and implementation

A new finite element algorithm for solving elastic and elastoplastic coupled consolidation problems is described. The procedure treats the governing consolidation relations as a system of first-order differential equations and is based on the backward Euler and Thomas and Gladwell schemes with automatic subincrementation of a prescribed series of time increments. The prescribed time increments, which are called coarse time steps, serve to start the procedure and are chosen by the user. The automatic consolidation algorithm attempts to select the time subincrements such that, for a given mesh, the time-stepping (or temporal discretisation) error in the displacements lies close to a specified tolerance. Unlike existing solution techniques, the new algorithm computes not only the displacements and pore pressures, but also their derivatives with respect to time. These extra variables permit a family of unconditionally stable integration algorithms to be constructed which automatically provide an estimate of the local truncation error for each time step. This error estimate is inexpensive to compute and may be used to develop a simple and efficient automatic time stepping mechanism. For the elastic case, the displacements and pore pressures at the end of each subincrement may be solved directly without the need for iteration. For elastoplastic behaviour, however, the governing relationships are non-linear and a system of non-linear equations must be solved to compute the updates. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Bi-level optimization for risk-based regional hurricane evacuation planning

Almost all engineering evacuation models define the objective as minimizing the time required to clear the region or total travel time, thus making an implicit assumption that who will or should evacuate is known. Conservatively evacuating everyone who may be affected may be the best strategy for a given storm, but there is a growing recognition that in some places that strategy is no longer viable and in any case, may not be the best alternative by itself. Here, we introduce a new bi-level optimization that reframes the decision more broadly. The upper level develops an evacuation plan that describes, as a hurricane approaches, who should stay and who should leave and when, so as to minimize both risk and travel time. The lower level is a dynamic user equilibrium (DUE) traffic assignment model. The model includes four novel features: (1) it refocuses the decision on the objectives of minimizing both risk and travel time; (2) it allows direct comparison of more alternatives, including for the first time, sheltering-in-place; (3) it uses a hurricane-scenario-based analysis that explicitly represents the critically important uncertainty in hurricane track, intensity, and speed; and (4) it includes a new DUE algorithm that is efficient enough for full-scale hurricane evacuation applications. The model can be used both to provide an evacuation plan and to evaluate a plan’s performance in terms of risk and travel time, assuming the plan is implemented and a specified hurricane scenario then actually occurs. We demonstrate the model with a full-scale case study for Eastern North Carolina.     

基于GPS时间信号的 电法发送机与接收机时间同步设计

为了精确测量频率域电法勘探中接收机与发送机相位差参数,引入GPS模块,利用精确的1pps作为时间参考;分析了GPS同步原理及其结构、特性;设计了在频率域电法勘探中发送机与接收机GPS时间同步电路,实现了多频激电仪接收机与发送机的精确时间同步进行高精度相位测量。     

边坡位移演化的多尺度分析

通过相邻两个时间区间位移观测结果均值差分的积分描述和Harr小波基函数的小波变换方程的对比分析,得到了一个将不同时间尺度下边坡位移均值变化表示为相应尺度下小波变换系数的基本关系。根据这一关系,提出了可以采用小波变换方法确定两个相邻时间区间位移均值在不同时间尺度下变化规律的边坡位移演化的多尺度分析方法。针对卧龙寺新滑坡、三峡永久船闸边坡开挖和隔河岩水电站进水口边坡变形的观测结果,讨论了它们的位移演化多尺度特征。当边坡位移呈现较规则的变化趋势时,在一个尺度上就可以提取它们的时间演化特征。开挖剧烈扰动的影响可以通过给定时间尺度支撑区端点与位移突变点之间递增连的线进行近似。     

Critical Loads of Heavy Metals in a Highly Polluted Catchment Area in Egypt

Heavy metals in different environmental compartments can be hazardous to ecosystems. Budgets of Cd, Pb and Zn in small ecosystems of the Shubra E1-Kheima area in Egypt are presented. The budgets are not in steady state because they change with time. So the concentrations of the metals are a function of time. The critical loads of heavy metals to soils can be calculated from an inventory of inputs and outputs of the trace components in the catchment area.Critical time is an important parameter for critical load evaluation because it can indicate which of the heavy metals may be the most acute threat to the soils. Egyptian soil in the Shubra ElKheima area seems to be in danger of heavy metal pollution by Zn, Cd and Pb. The calculated critical loads and their exceedances are approximate indicators of the hazards in the soil system.The critical time is a warning signal to initiate an environmental evaluation of possible pollution hazards.     

砂土地层泥水盾构泥膜形成时间及泥浆压力转化率的试验研究

泥水盾构施工中,维持开挖面稳定的关键是要在开挖面及时形成微渗透的泥膜,才能将泥浆压力转化为有效应力来平衡开挖面的土压力。开挖面处的泥膜是动态泥膜,所以泥膜的形成时间是影响泥膜能否有效支护开挖面稳定的重要因素。利用自行设计的泥膜形成时间测量试验装置,在3种地层中,利用5种泥浆开展泥浆渗透成膜试验,研究泥膜的形成时间及相关规律。研究表明,在泥皮型渗透中泥膜的形成时间一般为10 s左右,泥浆性质及粒径对泥膜的形成时间有重要影响。讨论了国内外部分大型泥水盾构泥膜形成时间,发现泥膜从破坏到形成、再到破坏的时间间隔为5～20 s不等,因此,在实际施工中需要调整泥浆性质,使泥膜形成时间小于泥膜从破坏到再破坏的时间。     

油气水界面追溯法——研究烃类流体运聚成藏史的一种重要方法

通过对塔里木盆地多个油气藏的油气水界面演化史与成藏期的综合分析 ,认为油气水界面追溯法是研究烃类流体运聚成藏期与成藏演化史的一种十分有效的方法。其确定成藏期、恢复成藏演化史的基本原理是 ,规则油气藏形成时其油气水界面通常为一水平的界面 ,以后因构造变动等影响 ,油气水界面可能发生变迁 ,直至构造稳定期其油气水界面又重新演变为水平的界面。因此 ,可以通过对油气藏油气水界面演变史的分析 ,研究油气藏的形成演化历史。具体做法是 ,首先编制大比例尺圈闭发育史剖面图 (或平面图 ) ,然后计算现今油气藏的油气水界面在各地质历史时期的古埋深 ,并标于相应时期的剖面图 (或平面图 )上 ,则现今油气水界面埋深最早形成水平直线或水平界面的时间 ,即是油气藏的形成时间。其后的油气水界面变迁则纪录了油气藏形成以后调整、改造乃至破坏的历史     

A novel approach to estimate the variations in stresses and fault state due to depletion of reservoirs

Geomechanical changes may occur in reservoirs due to production from reservoirs. Study of these changes has an important role in upcoming operations. Frictional equilibrium is one of the items that should be determined during the depletion as it may vary with respect to time. Pre-existing faults and fractures will slide in regions where there is no frictional equilibrium. Hence, it may be concluded that reduction in pore pressure can initiate the sliding of faults. Whereas, it is also possible that faults will not exist after a certain time as production recovers the equilibrium. Casing shearing or lost circulation may be occurred due to faulting. In reservoirs which depletion leads to frictional equilibrium, decrease of fractures and faults leads to some variations in permeability. Hence, predicting the effect of depletion on frictional equilibrium is required in dealing with casing shearing or lost circulation in drilling of new wells. In addition, permeability modeling will be more precise during the life of reservoirs. Estimation of necessary time to create or vanish faults is vital to be successful in production from wells or drilling new wells. Achieving or loosing of equilibrium mainly depends on in situ stresses and rate of production. Estimation of the in situ stresses at the initiation state of reservoir is the key to study the state of faults. The next step is to predict the effects of depletion on in situ stresses. Different models are suggested in which decrease of horizontal stresses is predicted as function of pore pressure variation. In these models, different assumptions are made such as simplifying the poroelastic theory, ignoring the passing time, and considering the geometry of reservoir. In this article, a new model is proposed based on theory of inclusions and boundary element method. This state-of-the-art model considers the geometry of reservoir. In addition, changes of in situ are obtained as a function of time to reach to a more precise model capable of applying during the reservoir life. Finally, the model is imposed on real cases. The effect of depletion on faults is studied in reservoirs of normal and strike-slip stress regimes, and conventional and proposed models are compared. For this aim, in the first step, mechanical earth models of these two reservoirs are built using logging and coring data. Stress polygon method and poroelastic horizontal strain model are used for strike-slip and normal regimes, respectively. In reservoir 1 which is in a strike-slip stress regime, a fault is distinguished in formation microimaging (FMI) log. For this reservoir, the required time to achieve to frictional equilibrium is calculated. In the reservoir 2, the potential depth of fault sliding is analyzed and required time for faulting in that depth is predicted. The predicted time for satisfaction of frictional equilibrium using the proposed model has a significant difference with the predicted time using the previous methods. In addition, the proposed model predicts that different parts of reservoir 2 are willing for faulting during depletion. The previous model determines only one point that faulting may happen. It is necessary to use this new model to consider different important factors such as geometry and time to gain more accurate predictions.