W Phase Inversion and Tsunami Inundation Modeling for Tsunami Early Warning: Case Study for the 2011 Tohoku Event

Centroid moment tensor solutions for the 2011 Tohoku earthquake are determined by W phase inversions using 5 and 10 min data recorded by the Full Range Seismograph Network of Japan (F-net). By a scaling relation of moment magnitude to rupture area and an assumption of rigidity of 4 × 10¹⁰ N m^?2, simple rectangular earthquake fault models are estimated from the solutions. Tsunami inundations in the Sendai Plain, Minamisanriku, Rikuzentakata, and Taro are simulated using the estimated fault models. Then the simulated tsunami inundation area and heights are compared with the observations. Even the simulated tsunami heights and inundations from the W phase solution that used only 5 min data are considerably similar to the observations. The results are improved when using 10 min of W phase data. These show that the W phase solutions are reliable to be used for tsunami inundation modeling. Furthermore, the technique that combines W phase inversion and tsunami inundation modeling can produce results that have sufficient accuracy for tsunami early warning purposes.     

Finite Fault Modeling in a Tsunami Warning Center Context

The US NOAA/NWS tsunami warning centers have relied on earthquake location and depth, and scalar measures of earthquake size and slowness to assess the potential for the generation of a destructive tsunami by an earthquake. Recent earthquakes, such as Peru 2001, Sumatra 2004 and the Java 2006, manifest some of the difficulties the warning centers face as they try to cope with unusual earthquakes. We have undertaken a study of a simple teleseismic waveform inverse model and applied it to the earthquakes of June 23, 2001 in Peru and of July 17, 2006 in Java. Synthetic numerical experiments suggest that the most salient features of the rupture history of an earthquake can be recovered. Furthermore the calculations can be conducted quickly enough to be useful in a warning center context. We have applied our technique to the Peru 2001 and recent Java 2006 earthquakes. Our overall results are consistent with those obtained from other studies. The results show why the Peru event initially looked slow to the US tsunami warning centers and that the Java event is a truly slow or tsunami earthquake. Clearly, the warning centers stand to benefit from an increased understanding of the earthquakes they monitor. Furthermore, better knowledge of the slip distribution along a fault will improve tsunami wave-height forecasts.     

Modeling of the 2011 Japan Tsunami: Lessons for Near-Field Forecast

During the devastating 11 March 2011 Japanese tsunami, data from two tsunami detectors were used to determine the tsunami source within 1.5 h of earthquake origin time. For the first time, multiple near-field tsunami measurements of the 2011 Japanese tsunami were used to demonstrate the accuracy of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) real-time flooding forecast system in the far field. To test the accuracy of the same forecast system in the near field, a total of 11 numerical models with grids telescoped to 2 arcsec (~60 m) were developed to hindcast the propagation and coastal inundation of the 2011 Japanese tsunami along the entire east coastline of Japan. Using the NOAA tsunami source computed in near real-time, the model results of tsunami propagation are validated with tsunami time series measured at different water depths offshore and near shore along Japan’s coastline. The computed tsunami runup height and spatial distribution are highly consistent with post-tsunami survey data collected along the Japanese coastline. The computed inundation penetration also agrees well with survey data, giving a modeling accuracy of 85.5 % for the inundation areas along 800 km of coastline between Ibaraki Prefecture (north of Kashima) and Aomori Prefecture (south of Rokkasho). The inundation model results highlighted the variability of tsunami impact in response to different offshore bathymetry and flooded terrain. Comparison of tsunami sources inferred from different indirect methods shows the crucial importance of deep-ocean tsunami measurements for real-time tsunami forecasts. The agreement between model results and observations along Japan’s coastline demonstrate the ability and potential of NOAA’s methodology for real-time near-field tsunami flooding forecasts. An accurate tsunami flooding forecast within 30 min may now be possible using the NOAA forecast methodology with carefully placed tsunameters and large-scale high-resolution inundation models with powerful computing capabilities.     

New Methods for Modeling Laterolog Resistivity Corrections

The paper presents methods for laterolog response modeling. In Coulomb’s charges method, Laplace’s equation is solved for the electric field distribution in rock medium with internal boundaries between different resistivity layers. There, the boundary problem is reduced to Fred-holm integral equation of the second kind. The second method uses a finite element array to model apparent resistivity from laterolog. The task is treated as DC problem and the Laplace equation is solved numerically. The presented methods were applied to borehole data covering a typical stratigraphie section of the Fore-Sudetic Monocline in southwestern Poland. Apparent resistivity was calculated using the Coulomb’s charges method and alternatively modeled using a finite element method which gave similar results. Then, a series of linear corrections for borehole, shoulder bed, and filtration effects for apparent resistivity obtained by the Coulomb’s charges method demonstrated the feasibility of calculating true resistivity of virgin and invaded zones. The proposed methods provide a flexible solution in modeling which can be adapted to other logs.     

Numerical Modeling and Observations of Tsunami Waves in Alberni Inlet and Barkley Sound, British Columbia

Alberni Inlet is a long and narrow fjord adjacent to Barkley Sound on the Pacific Coast of Vancouver Island, Canada. Port Alberni, at the head of the inlet, was affected in 1964 by the largest Pacific tsunami waves in Canadian history. We use observations and results from two numerical models to investigate the resonant characteristics of the region and amplification of tsunami waves in Barkley Sound and Alberni Inlet. The first model (A) was forced at its open boundary with a stationary autoregressive signal, similar to the observed background noise. The second model (B) used an initial sea-level deformation from a potential earthquake off California in the southern segment of the Cascadia Subduction Zone, producing transient tsunami waves. Spectral, cross-spectral and frequency-time (f-t) analyses of the observations were used to examine the resonant properties and topographic response of the local area. The respective results show large admittance functions over a wide 0.5–0.9 cph frequency band, implying a low Q factor but high amplification of arriving waves. This unusual behavior is a result of two effects: A quarter-wave resonance of the system for its fundamental Helmholtz mode and amplification due to the narrowing of the channel cross section from Barkley Sound to Alberni Inlet. The model A numerical results agree favorably with the observations, indicating an energetic resonant mode at frequency of ~0.53 cph (112 min), with its nodal line located near the entrance to Barkley Sound and amplification factor value close to 12. The results from the tsunami propagation model (B) yield spectral characteristics similar to those from the model A and from the observations. The maximum tsunami current speed for this scenario is 2.4 ms^?1 in Sproat Narrows, which divides Alberni Inlet into two parts, while the largest computed wave height is 1.6 m in the northern Alberni Inlet, in the area of Port Alberni.     

An Adaptive Wavenumber Sampling Strategy for 2.5D Seismic-Wave Modeling in the Frequency Domain

Simulation of seismic waves from a 3D point-source in a 2D medium may be performed in the frequency-wavenumber domain (called 2.5D modelling). It involves computing the Fourier-transformed Green's function for a number of frequency (ω) and strike direction wavenumber (k_y) values and doubly inverse transforming to convert to the traveltime and distance space. Such modeling produces a wavefield with 3D features but the computation becomes pseudo 2D (i.e., in the xz-plane) rather than 3D (in the xyz-frame). The common sampling strategy for the wavenumber is inefficient for 2.5D wave modeling because it employs a large number of wavenumbers (k_y). This leads to a high cost of computer time in the linear-equation-solving processing, which detracts from the advantages of 2.5D modeling. In this paper, we use two analytic frequency-wavenumber-domain solutions for seismic waves in a homogeneous medium and an inhomogeneous media (two semi-infinite media in contact) to investigate the properties of the solutions and an efficient sampling strategy for choosing the wavenumbers. We have carried out analytic and numerical experiments with these solutions, and present adaptive Gauss–Legendre abscissae for the wavenumber sampling in terms of a modeling situation. We show that the effective range and the number of sampling points of the wavenumber define the adaptive sampling strategy, and they can be estimated in terms of the wavelength and the maximum source-receiver offset. We apply this sampling strategy to the finite-element method and demonstrate that the range and number of sampling points may be adapted for obtaining significant computational efficiency and satisfactory accuracy for every frequency component. Such 2.5D wave modeling can be readily applied for frequency-domain full-waveform inversion for seismic surface measurements and crosshole seismic waveform tomography.     

FEM Using Adaptive Topography in 2-D MT Forward Modeling

Complex terrain causes great MT noise.This paper puts forward a FEM model method using adaptive topography and quadratic elements based on studies by previous researchers.This method can model all kinds of complicated terrain and geoelectric bodies preferably.The numeric modeling,calculation of the auxiliary field and definition of resistivity are deduced by electromagnetic equations.Lastly,several examples are presented,which show the method is rapid,effective and has highly accurate.     

Tsunami Assessment for Risk Management at Nuclear Power Facilities in Japan

The present study focuses on evaluation of the maximum and minimum water levels caused by tsunamis as risk factors for operation and management at nuclear power facilities along the coastal area of Japan. Tsunamis generated by submarine earthquakes are examined, basing literature reviews and databases of information on historical tsunami events and run-up heights. For simulation of water level along the coast, a numerical calculation system should be designed with computational regions covering a particular site. Also the calculation system should be verified by comparison of historical and calculated tsunami heights. At the beginning of the tsunami assessment, the standard faults, their locations, mechanisms and maximum magnitudes should be carefully estimated by considering historical earthquake-induced tsunamis and seismo-tectonics at each area. Secondly, the range of errors in the model parameters should be considered since earthquakes and tsunamis are natural phenomena that involve natural variability as well as errors in estimating parameters. For these reasons, uncertainty-induced errors should be taken into account in the process of tsunami assessment with parametric study of the tsunami source model. The element tsunamis calculated by the standard fault models with the errors would be given for the design. Then, the design tsunami can be selected among the element tsunamis with the most significant impact, maximum and minimum water levels, on the site, bearing in mind the possible errors in the numerical calculation system. Finally, the design tsunami is verified by comparison with the run-up heights of historical tsunamis, ensuring that the design tsunami is selected as the highest of all historical and possible future tsunamis at the site.     

Tsunami Simulations for Regional Sources in the South China and Adjoining Seas

We present 14 scenarios of potential tsunamis in the South China Sea and its adjoining basins, the Sulu and Sulawezi Seas. The sources consist of earthquake dislocations inspired by the the study of historical events, either recorded (since 1900) or described in historical documents going back to 1604. We consider worst-case scenarios, where the size of the earthquake is not limited by the largest known event, but merely by the dimension of the basin over which a coherent fault may propagate. While such scenarios are arguably improbable, they may not be impossible, and as such must be examined. For each scenario, we present a simulation of the tsunami??s propagation in the marine basin, exclusive of its interaction with the coastline. Our results show that the South China, Sulu and Sulawezi Seas make up three largely independent basins where tsunamis generated in one basin do not leak into another. Similarly, the Sunda arc provides an efficient barrier to tsunamis originating in the Indian Ocean. Furthermore, the shallow continental shelves in the Java Sea, the Gulf of Thailand and the western part of the South China Sea significantly dampen the amplitude of the waves. The eastern shores of the Malay Peninsula are threatened only by the greatest??and most improbable??of our sources, a mega-earthquake rupturing all of the Luzon Trench. We also consider two models of underwater landslides (which can be triggered by smaller events, even in an intraplate setting). These sources, for which there is both historical and geological evidence, could pose a significant threat to all shorelines in the region, including the Malay Peninsula.     

An Analysis Platform for Multiscale Hydrogeologic Modeling with Emphasis on Hybrid Multiscale Methods

One of the most significant challenges faced by hydrogeologic modelers is the disparity between the spatial and temporal scales at which fundamental flow, transport, and reaction processes can best be understood and quantified (e.g., microscopic to pore scales and seconds to days) and at which practical model predictions are needed (e.g., plume to aquifer scales and years to centuries). While the multiscale nature of hydrogeologic problems is widely recognized, technological limitations in computation and characterization restrict most practical modeling efforts to fairly coarse representations of heterogeneous properties and processes. For some modern problems, the necessary level of simplification is such that model parameters may lose physical meaning and model predictive ability is questionable for any conditions other than those to which the model was calibrated. Recently, there has been broad interest across a wide range of scientific and engineering disciplines in simulation approaches that more rigorously account for the multiscale nature of systems of interest. In this article, we review a number of such approaches and propose a classification scheme for defining different types of multiscale simulation methods and those classes of problems to which they are most applicable. Our classification scheme is presented in terms of a flowchart (Multiscale Analysis Platform), and defines several different motifs of multiscale simulation. Within each motif, the member methods are reviewed and example applications are discussed. We focus attention on hybrid multiscale methods, in which two or more models with different physics described at fundamentally different scales are directly coupled within a single simulation. Very recently these methods have begun to be applied to groundwater flow and transport simulations, and we discuss these applications in the context of our classification scheme. As computational and characterization capabilities continue to improve, we envision that hybrid multiscale modeling will become more common and also a viable alternative to conventional single‐scale models in the near future.     

Mesh grading approach for wave propagation in high velocity-contrast media

A mesh grading approach based on investigated lump method has been presented for simulating wave propagation in high velocity-contrast media. Unstructured fine grids are used to discretize the low wave-velocity medium in order to ensure the accuracy of numerical computation, and unstructured coarse grids are used for the high wave-velocity medium in order to substantially reduce the computational cost. On the interface, one coarse grid can match the fine grids of arbitrary odd number. The key feature of the proposed method is the constructions of investigated lumps on the interfaces of media. The transition zone, which is commonly used in the discontinuous grid scheme based on the staggered-grid finite-difference method, will not be used any more. Moreover, the computational instability that the discontinuous grid schemes frequently encountered does not arise in the proposed method. The comparisons with the analytical solutions and the application in studying the effects of sedimentary basin demonstrated that the mesh grading approach is a valid, accurate, convenient and flexible algorithm in simulating wave propagations in high velocity-contrast media with irregular interfaces.     

海南省南海地震监测和海啸预警服务

2004年底发生在印度洋的地震海啸造成的巨大灾难引起了人们广泛的关注。根据海南岛有仪器记录到地震海啸的事实,从构造角度讨论了海南岛未来遭受地震海啸袭击的可能性,强调了建立海南省南海地震监测和海啸预警系统的必要性和重要性,并提出了预警系统建设的初步设想。     

Analytical Solutions for Tsunami Waves Generated by Submarine Landslides in Narrow Bays and Channels

Analytical theory of tsunami wave generation by submarine landslides is extended to the case of narrow bays and channels of different geometry, in the shallow-water theory framework. New analytical solutions are obtained. For a number of bottom configurations, the wave field can be found explicitly in the form of the Duhamel integral. It is described by three waves: one forced wave propagating together with the landslide and two free waves propagating in opposite directions. The cases for bays with triangular (V-shaped bay), parabolic (U-shaped bay), and rectangular cross-sections are discussed in detail. The dynamics of the offshore-propagating wave in linearly inclined bays of different cross-section are also studied asymptotically for the resonant moving landslide. Different cases of landslides of increasing and decreasing volume are considered. It is shown that even if the landslide is moving under fully resonant conditions, the amplitude of the propagating tsunami wave may still be bounded, depending on the type of the landslide.     

Note on the 1964 Alaska Tsunami Generation by Horizontal Displacements of Ocean Bottom. Numerical Modeling of the Runup in Chenega Cove, Alaska

A numerical model of the wave dynamics in Chenega Cove, Alaska during the historic M _w 9.2 megathrust earthquake is presented. During the earthquake, locally generated waves of unknown origin were identified at the village of Chenega, located in the western part of Prince William Sound. The waves appeared shortly after the shaking began and swept away most of the buildings while the shaking continued. We model the tectonic tsunami in Chenega Cove assuming different tsunami generation processes. Modeled results are compared with eyewitness reports and an observed runup. Results of the numerical experiments let us claim the importance of including both vertical and horizontal displacement into the 1964 tsunami generation process. We also present an explanation for the fact that arrivals of later waves in Chenega were unnoticed.     

Methods and Results of Numerical Modeling of Reactive Solute Transport in River Flow

The equation of advection–diffusion transport of a reactive solute in a stream is solved by different methods. Procedures for evaluating the parameters of a four-node finite-difference approximation used to numerically integrate this equation are proposed. Numerical experiments based on the developed numerical procedures, software, and models of solute transport allowed, in particular, the evaluation of the sensitivity of pollutant concentration estimates to variations in the parameters of interaction processes and hydrodynamic dispersion for a lowland river.     

The Use of Coupling Functions in the Forecasting of the Dst-Index Amplitude with Adaptive Methods

Geomagnetism and Aeronomy - The possible use of artificial neural networks—classical multilayer perceptrons—with coupling functions to forecast time series of the Dst geomagnetic index...     

中国地震海啸及防御研究的综述与思考

综述了中国地震海啸的研究历史,并对未来中国类似灾难防御问题进行了探讨。