季风系统振荡与地震预报

发现了中国不同年份8级大震发生日期之间的倍九天时间间隔，对于陕甘宁地区7级以上大震的类似时间特征也被发现了。这种时间间隔可能是不同年份相同季节具有倍九天时间间隔的季风振荡触发大震形成的。     

气候系统模式对北极涛动的模拟

本文系统分析了参与IPCC AR4 “20世纪气候模拟"（20C3M）的23个气候系统模式模拟的1950～1999年冬季（JFM）北极涛动（AO）.结果表明,在22个模式中,AO模态都表现为北半球中高纬大气年际变率的第一模态.不过,18个模式模拟的AO模态在北太平洋地区表现偏强,有两组模式结果均表明,提高模式的水平分辨率能够克服此偏差.所有模式模拟的AO指数均未出现与观测相当的增强趋势,只有两个模式（ECHO-G和UKMO-HadGEM1）模拟的AO指数与观测存在显著正相关.多数模式能够模拟出纬向风伴随AO位相变化在中高纬出现的偶极子异常特征,部分模式对平流层AO特征的模拟能力仍需要提高.对AO垂直结构模拟较好的模式,例如CCSM3、MRI CGCM2-32和UKMO-HadGEM1,能够较为合理地再现伴随AO指数增强出现的极区平流层变冷和中纬度对流层增暖现象.AO与欧亚大陆地表气温和降水的相关分布,在多数模式中有较好的体现,个别模式还对AO与东亚气候的相关关系具有一定的模拟能力.对AO各指标均有较好模拟能力的模式是UKMO-HadGEM1.本文结果为改进气候系统模式对北极涛动的模拟能力提供了依据,亦为学术界利用IPCC AR4的耦合模式数据、开展与AO相关的气候变率研究提供了基础参考.     

“拉马德雷”冷位相时期的全球强震和灾害

“拉马德雷”是一种高空气压流，亦称太平洋十年涛动，分别以“暖位相”和“冷位相”两种形式交替在太平洋上空出现，每种现象持续20年至30年。近100多年来“拉马德雷”已出现了两个完整的周期（见表1）。当“拉马德雷”现象以“暖位相”形式出现时，北美大陆附近海面的水温就会异常升高，而北太平洋洋面温度却异常下降。与此同时太平洋高空气流由美洲和亚洲两大陆向太平洋中央移动；低空气流正好相反，使中太平洋海面升高。当“拉马德雷”以“冷位相”形式出现时，情况正好相反。中太平洋海面反复升降导致地壳跷跷板运动，引发强烈的地震活动。     

North Atlantic Oscillation – Concepts And Studies

This paper aims to provide a comprehensive review of previous studies and concepts concerning the North Atlantic Oscillation. The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and its recent homologue, the Arctic Oscillation/Northern Hemisphere annular mode (AO/NAM), are the most prominent modes of variability in the Northern Hemisphere winter climate. The NAO teleconnection is characterised by a meridional displacement of atmospheric mass over the North Atlantic area. Its state is usually expressed by the standardised air pressure difference between the Azores High and the Iceland Low. ThisNAO index is a measure of the strength of the westerly flow (positive with strong westerlies, and vice versa). Together with the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon, the NAO is a major source of seasonal to interdecadal variability in the global atmosphere. On interannual and shorter time scales, the NAO dynamics can be explained as a purely internal mode of variability of the atmospheric circulation. Interdecadal variability maybe influenced, however, by ocean and sea-ice processes.     

Pressure Oscillation Effects on the Saffman-Taylor Instability

— We studied experimentally the stability of the front between two immiscible fluids in a Hele-Shaw cell, which consists of two parallel glass plates separated by a narrow spacing. The fluid flow in a Hele-Shaw cell is governed by the Laplace's equation (pressure field) and Darcy's law (fluid transport), which makes of this experimental setup a two-dimensional analog of a porous medium (FABER, 1997). SAFFMAN and TAYLOR (1958) demonstrated that when the injected fluid is less viscous than the displaced one, the front between the fluids can be unstable and fingers may develop along the interface. We investigated the possibility of influencing the development of the Saffman-Taylor instability by modulating the injection pressure with weak periodic oscillations of low frequency (5 to 15 Hz). A series of experiments were performed, in which the evolution of the interface between the injected air and the displaced silicon oil was recorded with the help of a numerical photo camera. We observed that the oscillations of the injection pressure inhibit the development of fingers. We quantified the observed stabilization effect by performing a harmonic analysis of the shape of the front, and suggested an interpretation in terms of “stiffening” of the interface.     

Geomagnetic activity and the North Atlantic Oscillation

The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is the prominent pattern of winter climate variability that has a strong effect on weather in the North Atlantic region and the adjacent continents. At present, uncertainty prevails as to the mechanisms controlling the variability of the NAO. It is also difficult to explain why the positive phase of the NAO has prevailed over the past 37 years (1972–2008). We found high positive correlation coefficients between geomagnetic activity (used as a measure of solar wind intensity) and the NAO indices that equal 0.76 for 1962–1994 and 0.63 for 1961–2011. Positive correlations of the distribution of surface air temperature with the NAO and similarly with geomagnetic activity occur in the Northern Hemisphere. These results encourage our search for possible causes controlling the NAO. We have found that at times of high geomagnetic activity the NAO index is positive and magnetic reconnection may enable the solar wind to initiate downward winds in the magnetosphere. Wind anomalies originate at the edge of the stratospheric polar vortex and propagate downward through the troposphere taking part in the intensification of the vortex and of the westerlies. Stronger northerly winds over Greenland carry cold air southward and, together with the enhanced westerlies, advect the warm air from the Atlantic along the deep Icelandic low into Eurasia increasing temperatures there. On the other hand, at times of low geomagnetic activity, the NAO index is negative and the stratospheric polar vortex is weak. Warm air from the subtropics is carried into the Arctic and a rapid amplification of planetary waves propagating upward may cause displacement or even splitting of the weak vortex and sudden stratospheric warming. During this negative NAO phase the weakened westerlies allow more cold air to build up over North America and Eurasia.     

Stratospheric wave activity and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation

Using the monthly mean NCEP/NCAR reanalysis and NOAA Extended Reconstructed sea surface temperature (SST) datasets, strong correlations between the SST anomalies in the North Pacific and calculated three-dimensional Eliassen–Palm vertical fluxes are indicated in December 1958–1976 and 1992–2006. These correlations between the interannual variations of the SST anomalies and the penetration of planetary waves into the stratosphere are much less during the decadal sub-period 1976–1992 in the positive phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and the decadal cold SST anomalies in the North Pacific. Interannual variations of the polar jet in the lower stratosphere in January are strongly associated with SST anomalies in the Aleutian Low region in December for the years with positive PDO index. This sub-period corresponds well with that of the violation of the Holton–Tan relationship between the equatorial Quasi-Beinnial Oscillation (QBO) and the stratospheric circulation in the extra-tropics. It is shown that interannual and interdecadal variations of stratospheric dynamics, including stratospheric warming occurrences in January, depend strongly on changes of the upward propagation of planetary waves from the troposphere to the stratosphere over North Eurasia in preceding December. These findings give evidences of a large impact of the decadal SST variations in the North Pacific on wave activity in early winter due to changes of thermal excitation of planetary waves during distinct decadal periods. Possible causes of the decadal violation of the Holton–Tan relationship, its relation to the PDO and an influence of the 11-year solar cycle on the stratosphere are discussed.     

North Atlantic Oscillation influences on Turkish lake levels

The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is a large‐scale mode of natural climate variability governing the path of Atlantic mid‐latitude storm tracks and precipitation regimes in the Atlantic and Mediterranean sectors. The primary focus of this study is to investigate the variability of lake levels in seven lakes scattered across Turkey using the method of continuous wavelet transforms and global spectra. The long winter (December, January, February and March) lake‐level series and the NAO index (NAOI) series were subjected to wavelet transform. The global wavelet spectrum (energy spectrum of periodicities) of lake levels and winter NAOI anomalies, in most cases, revealed a significant correlation. It was shown that the Tuz, Sapanca, and Uluabat lakes reflect much stronger influences of the NAO than the other four lakes. In contrast, weak correlations were found in the coastal areas of the Mediterranean and eastern Turkey. The periodic structures of Turkish lake levels in relation to the NAO revealed a spectrum between the 1‐year and 10‐year scale level. Although the periodicities of more than 10‐year scale levels were detected, explaining significant relations between the NAO and these long‐term periodicities remains a challenging task. The results of this study are consistent with the earlier studies concerning the teleconnection between the NAO and climate variables in Turkey. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

On the physics of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation

The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) is a pronounced signal of climate variability in the North Atlantic sea-surface temperature field. In this paper, we propose an explanation of the physical processes responsible for the timescale and the spatial pattern of the AMO. Our approach involves the analysis of solutions of a hierarchy of models. In the lowest member of the model hierarchy, which is an ocean-only model for flow in an idealized basin, the variability shows up as a multidecadal oscillatory mode which is able to destabilize the mean thermohaline circulation. In the highest member of the model hierarchy, which is the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory R30 climate model, multidecadal variability is found as a dominant statistical mode of variability. The connection between both results is established by tracing the spatial and temporal expression of the multidecadal mode through the model hierarchy while monitoring changes in specific quantities (mechanistic indicators) associated with its physics. The proposed explanation of the properties of the AMO is eventually based on the changes in the spatial patterns of variability through the model hierarchy.Responsible Editor: Tal Ezer     

梅雨与北极涛动及平流层环流异常的关联

平流层过程如何影响气候变化是一个大家关注的科学问题,在WCRP中专门设置了一个研究子计划SPARC.本文的分析研究表明,中国的梅雨异常可能受到平流层大气环流异常的影响,而这种影响是通过北极涛动（AO）的变化来实现的.从分析和计算结果可以看到,二月份北半球30 hPa位势高度的EOF第一主分量对应着副热带和高纬度地区的显著下传异常波作用量,其第三主分量对应着极地地区的显著下传异常波作用量,这些下传的异常波作用量都对三月份AO形势的形成有明显的贡献.三月份的AO则会通过影响东亚地区夏季对流层大气的冷暖状况和环流,在长江中下游地区导致异常垂直运动和辐散辐合形势,从而影响夏季的梅雨降水.     

Conceptual model about the interaction between El Ni?o/Southern Oscillation and Quasi-Biennial Oscillation in far west equatorial Pacific

Interaction between the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation in far west equatorial Pacific (QBOWP) and the El Ni?o/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is studied using a new conceptual model. In this conceptual model, the QBOWP effects on ENSO are achieved through two ways: (1) the oceanic Kelvin wave along equatorial Pacific, and (2) the Atmospheric Walker Circulation anomaly, while ENSO effects on QBOWP can be accomplished by the atmospheric Walker Circulation anomaly. Diagnosis analysis of the model results shows that the Atmospheric bridge (Walker circulation) plays a more important role in interaction between the ENSO and QBOWP than the oceanic bridge (oceanic Kelvin wave along equatorial Pacific); It is found that by the interaction of the ENSO and QBOWP, a free ENSO oscillation with 3–5 years period could be substituted by a oscillation with the quasi-biennial period, and the dominant period of SST anomaly and wind anomaly in the far west equatorial Pacific tends to be prolonged with enhanced ENSO forcing. Generally, the multi-period variability in the coupled Atmosphere-Ocean System in the Tropical Pacific can be achieved through the interaction between ENSO and QBOWP.     

平流层气溶胶的准两年周期特征分析

本文采用HALOE和SAGE Ⅱ资料,分析了平流层气溶胶的准两年周期变化(简称QBO)特征及其与臭氧QBO的关系,结果表明:(1)北半球中高纬上空平流层气溶胶存在明显的QBO特征,其QBO信号自上向下传播,振荡幅度在平流层中下层可以达到20%;而在赤道和南半球上空的平流层气溶胶的QBO特征相对于北半球则不明显;(2)在...     

Hadley环流与北太平洋涛动的显著关系

利用NCEP/NCAR月平均再分析资料,分析了冬季（11～4月）Hadley环流与北太平洋涛动（NPO）的变化特征以及它们之间的关系.本文选取0°~30°N区域里最大质量流函数来描述北半球Hadley环流强度随时间的演变,利用(20°N, 180°~160°W) 和 (60°N, 180°~160°W) 区域平均的标准化海平面气压差代表NPO强度.结果表明,冬季北半球Hadley环流与NPO的变化形势非常一致,两者都具有显著的年际和年代际变化（70年代前处于负位相,80年代之后处于正位相）,同时还呈现出明显的增强趋势.Hadley环流变化与NPO异常的关系非常密切,在年际和年代际时间尺度上都具有显著的正相关.这种强相关性在大气环流场上可以得到很好的印证.研究还揭示,太平洋地区10°~30°N下沉支和40°~60°N上升支的异常运动可能是这种关系存在的主要内在原因.     

南太平洋和北太平洋年代际振荡与华北盛夏降水的关系及可能物理机制

利用降水、大气环流和海表温度等多种再分析资料和偏相关方法,研究了1951—2007年南太平洋年代际振荡（SPDO）和北太平洋年代际振荡（即PDO,本文称为NPDO）分别与华北盛夏（7—8月）降水在年代际时间尺度上的关系及其可能物理机制.结果表明：在去除SPDO和NPDO的相关性之前,它们与华北盛夏降水的关系均偏弱;但在去除两者相关性之后,SPDO（NPDO）与华北盛夏降水存在显著正（负）相关关系.去除两者相关性之后,当SPDO处于正位相时,热带西北太平洋海温异常显著偏暖,这将在对流层中下层从热带西太平洋—东亚沿岸激发出"气旋-反气旋-气旋"的负位相东亚—太平洋型遥相关（EAP）波列,该波列导致东亚夏季风异常增强,有利于低纬地区水汽输送至华北地区,从而使得华北盛夏降水异常偏多,反之,当SPDO处于负位相时,华北盛夏降水异常将偏少;对NPDO来说,当其处于正位相时,不仅热带西北太平洋异常显著偏冷,而且印度洋大部分海温异常显著偏暖,在两者共同作用下,对流层中下层从热带西太平洋—东亚沿岸出现"反气旋-气旋-反气旋"的正位相EAP波列,这将引起东亚夏季风异常减弱,不利于低纬地区水汽输送至华北地区,华北盛夏降水异常因此减少,反之,当NPDO处于负位相时,华北盛夏降水异常将偏多.     

Conceptual model about the interaction between El Ni(n)o/ Southern Oscillation and Quasi-Biennial Oscillation in far west equatorial Pacific

Interaction between the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation in far west equatorial Pacific (QBOWP) and the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is studied using a new conceptual model. In this conceptual model, the QBOWP effects on ENSO are achieved through two ways: (1) the oceanic Kelvin wave along equatorial Pacific, and (2) the Atmospheric Walker Circulation anomaly, while ENSO effects on QBOWP can be accomplished by the atmospheric Walker Circulation anomaly. Diagnosis analysis of the model results shows that the Atmospheric bridge (Walker circulation) plays a more important role in interaction between the ENSO and QBOWP than the oceanic bridge (oceanic Kelvin wave along equatorial Pacific); It is found that by the interaction of the ENSO and QBOWP, a free ENSO oscillation with 3-5 years period could be substituted by a oscillation with the quasi-biennial period, and the dominant period of SST anomaly and wind anomaly in the far west equatorial Pacific tends to be prolonged with enhanced ENSO forcing. Generally, the multi-period variability in the coupled Atmosphere-Ocean System in the Tropical Pacific can be achieved through the interaction between ENSO and QBOWP.     

汶川大地震前GPS时间序列的振荡分析

采用复小波分析技术,分析了中国大陆GPS基准站水平向时间序列的多时间尺度和周期性变化特征。结果表明,青藏高原GPS站的南北分量在2007年初至汶川大地震发生前,出现一个周期的准同步周年振荡异常,且向北方向的半周期波峰振幅明显高于各点在印尼苏门答腊巨震后大尺度北东向长趋势运动的加速度,这可能是导致龙门山闭锁段破裂的重要触发因子。这种振荡的周期集中在汶川大地震前355～375天,与地球绕太阳公转周期非常一致。     

Impact of the North Atlantic Oscillation on streamflow in Western Iran

The Middle East region, where arid and semi‐arid regions occupy most of the land, is extremely vulnerable to any natural or anthropogenic reductions in available water resources. Much of the observed interannual‐decadal variability in Middle Eastern streamflow is physically linked to a large‐scale atmospheric circulation patterns such as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). In this work, the relationship between the NAO index and the seasonal and annual streamflows in the west of Iran was statistically examined during the last four decades. The correlations were constructed for two scenarios (with and without time lag). The associations between the annual and seasonal streamflows and the simultaneous NAO index were found to be poor and insignificant. The possibility of streamflow forecasting was also explored, and the results of lag correlations revealed that streamflow responses at the NAO signal with two and three seasons delays. The highest Spearman correlation coefficient of 0.379 was found between the spring NAO index and the autumn streamflow series at Taghsimab station, indicating that roughly 14% of the variance in the streamflow series is associated with NAO forcing. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Relationships between the North Pacific Oscillation and the typhoon/hurricane frequencies

Relationships between the North Pacific Oscillation (NPO) and the typhoon as well as hurricane fre-quencies are documented. The correlation between NPO index in June-July-August-September and the annual typhoon number in the western North Pacific is 0.37 for the period of 1949―1998. The NPO is correlated with the annual hurricane number in the tropical Atlantic at -0.28 for the same period. The variability of NPO is found to be concurrent with the changes of the magnitude of vertical zonal wind shear, sea-level pressure patterns, as well as the sea surface temperature, which are physically asso- ciated with the typhoons and hurricanes genesis. The NPO associated atmospheric circulation vari- ability is analyzed to explain how NPO is linked with variability of the tropical atmospheric circulation in the western Pacific and the tropical Atlantic, via the atmospheric teleconnection.