An Experiment Using the High Resolution Eta and WRF Models to Forecast Heavy Precipitation over India

In the present study using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) and Eta models, recent heavy rainfall events that occurred (i) over parts of Maharastra during 26 to 27 July, 2005, (ii) over coastal Tamilnadu and south coastal Andhra Pradesh during 24 to 28 October, 2005, and (iii) the tropical cyclone of 30 September to 3 October, 2004/Monsoon Depression of 2 to 5 October 2004, that developed during the withdrawal phase of the southwest monsoon season of 2004 have been investigated. Also sensitivity experiments have been conducted with the WRF model to test the impact of microphysical and cumulus parameterization schemes in capturing the extreme weather events. The results show that the WRF model with the microphysical process and cumulus parameterization schemes of Ferrier et al. and Betts-Miller-Janjic was able to capture the heavy rainfall events better than the other schemes. It is also observed that the WRF model was able to predict mesoscale rainfall more realistically in comparison to the Eta model of the same resolution.     

Global assessments of the NCEP Ensemble Forecast System using altimeter data

Ocean Dynamics - Forecasts of 10-m wind (U10) and significant wave height (Hs) from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Ensemble Forecast System are evaluated using altimeter...     

长江中游夏季降水场预报技术研究

经SVD分析,截取足够多的预报场和因子场时间系数,使其相互关系代表两场的大尺度联系,预报场时间系数与其奇异向量线性组合估计场能反映原场主要特征.借助最优化技术,选择合理的系数,建立预测公式,由因子场时间系数预测预报场时间系数,同时订正预报场时间系数心a₁ a₂ a_N本身的误差和反演过程中分析误差造成的场格点趋势预测的误差.最后将预测的预报场时间系数和对应奇异向量反演为整个场的预报.预报过程重点考虑可预报的大尺度变化,滤去不可预报的小扰动,依据两场主要耦合关系,预测预报场未来的主要变化.     

Evaluating weather observations and the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis as inputs for hydrologic modelling in the tropics

Correctly representing weather is critical to hydrological modelling, but scarce or poor quality observations can often compromise model accuracy. Reanalysis datasets may help to address this basic challenge. The Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) dataset provides continuous, globally available records, and CFSR data have produced satisfactory hydrological model performance in some temperate and monsoonal locations. However, the use of CFSR for hydrological modelling in tropical and semi‐tropical basins has not been adequately evaluated. Taking advantage of exceptionally high rainfall station density in the catchments of the Rio Grande de Loiza above San Juan, Puerto Rico, we compared model performance based on CFSR records with that based on publicly available weather stations in the Global Historical Climate Network (GHCN, n = 21) and on a dataset of rainfall records maintained by the United States Geological Survey Caribbean Water Science Center (USGS, n = 24). For an implementation of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) with subbasins defined at 11 streamflow gages, uncalibrated measures of Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) were >0 at 8 of 11 gages using USGS precipitation data for daily simulations over the period 1998–2012, but were <0 using GHCN weather station records (8 of 11) and CFSR reanalysis data (9 of 11). Autocalibration of individual SWAT models for each of the 11 basins against each of the available weather datasets yielded NSE values > 0 using all precipitation inputs, including CFSR. However, the ground weather station closest to the geographic basin centre produced the highest NSE values in only 5 of 11 cases. The spatially interpolated CFSR data performed as well or better than single ground observations made further than 20–30 km, and sometimes better than individual weather stations <10 km from the basin centroid. In addition to demonstrating the need to evaluate available weather inputs, this research reinforces the value of CFSR data as a means to supplement ground records and consistently determine a baseline for hydrologic model performance. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Forecast of Precipitation in Ai-Petri Area Based on Artificial Neuron Network Model

Water Resources - An improved method is proposed for forecasting monthly precipitation in the mountain Crimea based on a model of artificial neural network. The input parameters of the model where...     

Evaluation of linear regression methods as downscaling tools in temperature projections over the Pichola Lake Basin in India

In this paper, downscaling models are developed using various linear regression approaches, namely direct, forward, backward and stepwise regression, for obtaining projections of mean monthly maximum and minimum temperatures (Tmax and Tmin) to lake‐basin scale in an arid region in India. The effectiveness of these regression approaches is evaluated through application to downscale the predictands for the Pichola lake region in the state of Rajasthan in India, which is considered to be a climatically sensitive region. The predictor variables are extracted from (i) the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis dataset for the period 1948–2000 and (ii) the simulations from the third‐generation Canadian Coupled Global Climate Model (CGCM3) for emission scenarios A1B, A2, B1 and COMMIT for the period 2001–2100. The selection of important predictor variables becomes a crucial issue for developing downscaling models as reanalysis data are based on a wide range of meteorological measurements and observations. A simple multiplicative shift was used for correcting predictand values. Direct regression was found to yield better performance among all other regression techniques for the training data set, while the forward regression technique performed better in the validation data set, explored in the present study. For trend analysis, the Mann–Kendall non‐parametric test was performed. The results of downscaling models show that an increasing trend is observed for Tmax and Tmin for A1B, A2 and B1 scenarios, whereas no trend is discerned with the COMMIT scenario by using predictors. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Comparative evaluation of performances of two versions of NCEP climate forecast system in predicting Indian summer monsoon rainfall

The operational prediction of climatic variables in monthly-to-seasonal scales has been issued by National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) through Climate Forecast System model (CFSv1) since 2004. After incorporating significant changes, a new version of this model (CFSv2) was released in 2011. The present study is based on the comparative evaluation of performances of CFSv2 and CFSv1 for the southwest monsoon season (June-July-August-September, JJAS) over India with May initial condition during 1982–2009. It was observed that CFSv2 has improved over CFSv1 in simulating the observed monsoon rainfall climatology and inter annual variability. The movement of the cell of Walker circulation in years of excessive and deficient rainfall is better captured in CFSv2, as well. The observed teleconnection pattern between ISMR-sea surface temperature (SST) is also better captured in CFSv2. The overall results suggest that the changes incorporated in CFSv1 through the development of CFSv2 have resulted in an improved prediction of ISMR.21     

Studies of variations in the vertical ozone profiles over India

The latitudinal and temporal variations in the vertical profiles of ozone over the Indian subcontinent are discussed. In the equatorial atmosphere represented by Trivandrum (8°N) and Poona (18°N), while tropospheric ozone shows marked seasonal variations, the basic pattern of the vertical distribution of ozone in the stratosphere remains practically unchanged throughout the year, with a maximum at about 28 to 26 km and a minimum just below the tropopause. The maximum total ozone occurs over Trivandrum in the summer monsoon season and the latitudinal anomaly observed over the Indian monsoon area at this time is explained as arising from the horizontal transport of ozone-rich stratospheric air from over the thermal equator to the southern regions.In the higher latitudes represented by New Delhi (28°N), the maximum occurs at 23 km. Delhi, which lies in the temperate regime in winter, shows marked day-to-day variations in association with western disturbances and the strong westerly jet stream that lies over north and central India at this time.Although the basic pattern of the vertical distribution of ozone in the equatorial atmosphere is generally the same in all seasons, significant though small changes occur in the lower stratosphere and in the troposphere. There are small perturbations in the ozone and temperature structures, distinct ozone maxima being always associated with temperature inversions. There are also large perturbances not related to temperature, ozone-depleted regions normally reflecting a stratification of either destructive processes or materials such as dust layers or clouds at these levels. Particularly interesting are the upper tropospheric levels just below the tropopause where the ozone concentration is consistently the smallest, in all seasons and at all places where soundings have been made in India.     

A study of tropospheric wave disturbances over India in winter

The wave disturbances in the troposphere over north and central India during winter when the subtropical westerlies prevail in the upper air over the area have been investigated by power-and cross-spectrum analysis. The power-spectrum study revealed the existence of basically two systems of periods 10.0–12.5 days and 4.5–5.5 days in the middle and upper troposphere. Both the long-and short-period systems have been found to be propagating eastwards at rates 5° and 10° long./day respectively. In both the cases lower temperatures are found to the east of the troughs. It is also noted that these systems build up the meridional temperature gradient and hence strengthen the upper tropospheric westerlies. Synoptic study of the transient systems is presented.     

On cumulus-scale transport of horizontal momentum in monsoon depression over India

A diagnostie method of cumulus parameterization is suggested in which vertical transport of horizontal momentum by cumulus-scale is derived by making use of large-scale vorticity as well as divergence budget equations. Data for composite monsoon depression over India available from our earlier studies used to test the method. As a first approximation, the results are obtained using only the vorticity budget equation.The results show that in the southwest sector of the monsoon depression, which is characterized by maximum cloudiness and precipitation, there is an excess of cyclonic vorticity in the lower troposphere and anticyclonic vorticity in the upper troposphere associated with the large-scale motion. The distribution of eddy vertical transport of horizontal momentum is such that anticyclonic vorticity is generated in the lower troposphere and cyclonic vorticity aloft. Cumulus-scale eddies thus work against the large-scale system and tend to off-set the large-scale imbalance in vorticity.     

华东地区地震条带预报效能评估

对华东地区1970年以来的地震条带进行了预报效能评估。 结果表明: M_L≥3.0地震条带的报准率为0.33, 虚报率为0.67, 漏报率为0.71, R值为0.20; M_L≥3.5地震条带的报准率为0.40, 虚报率为0.60, 漏报率为0.81, R值为0.12; M_L≥4.0地震条带的报准率为0.71, 虚报率为0.29, 漏报率为0.76, R值为0.18; 各震级档条带的R值等于或高于具有97.5%置信水平的R₀值, 具有一定的预报能力。 主震一般发生在条带结束后1年时间内, 多数发生在条带内部和边缘, 条带以北东向或北北东向居多; 对于条带的平均持续时间, 震级下限越大的条带平均持续时间越长; 多数条带分布在江苏及附近海域和赣北及邻区。     

On the Forecast of Long-Term Changes in the Hydrological Regime of Rivers Using the Results of Climate Modeling

Water Resources - A method is proposed for probabilistic forecasting of river flow under non-stationary conditions based on the Bayesian approach and using the results of climatic system modeling....     

全球降水计划多卫星降水联合反演IMERG卫星降水产品在中国大陆地区的多尺度精度评估

以中国气象局逐小时地面降水数据集为参考基准,采用8种统计评价指标综合评估对比了美国NASA研发的全球降水计划（GPM）多卫星降水联合反演IMERG（Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for GPM）卫星降水产品的三个不同版本的Final数据,分析了三套卫星降水在中国大陆地区多时空尺度下的反演精度,探讨了IMERG最新版本V5数据的改进情况及反演中仍然存在的问题.结果表明：IMERG数据能够准确地捕捉到中国大陆地区的降水区域特征,但是在中国西北部地面站点稀疏地区误差较大,精度较低,难以精确估测该地区的实际降水值.最新版本V5数据精度整体上优于先前的V3和V4数据,V5与地面观测数据的相关系数为0.75,均方根误差为7.03 mm/d,较V3、V4有明显提高,改善了V3、V4在中国西北部出现的降水低估问题;但是V5在冬季表现较差且没有解决前期版本存在的高估问题,整体上相对实际降水仍处于高估状态;同时V5在对高雨强事件的捕捉监测能力方面还存在一定的不足,因此建议在强降雨事件监测中需谨慎使用卫星降水IMERG数据集.目前V5系统中的校正算法还存在部分缺陷：为消除全球降水系统性低估问题,目前的校正算法整体性抬升了卫星降水值,从而导致卫星降水反演在中国地区高雨强事件下出现高误报以及高估问题,进而影响到IMERG数据回推以及后续再生数据的精度.     

Periodicity of Water-borne Hyphomycetes in Two Streams of Western Ghat Forests (India)

The seasonal variation in the occurrence of water-borne hyphomycetes in the two streams, viz. Kempu Hole and Kumaradhara, was investigated during 1983 and 1984. The fungi were isolated by using the four methods, viz. leaf litter analysis, water filtration and analysis of natural and induced foam. Thirty-six species of hyphomycetes in Kempu Hole and twenty species in Kumaradhara were recorded. Lunulospora curvula and Triscelophorus monosporus were observed in high frequency in all seasons in both the streams. The organisms like Dactylella aquatica, Camposporium pellucidum, Clavatospora filiformis, Dactylella oviparasitica, Flabellospora crassa, Tetracladium marchalianum, Tetraploa sp., Tetraploa aristata, Alatospora acuminata, Condylospora spumigena, Helicosporium sp. 1, Helicosporium sp. 2, Diplocladiella scalaroides, Phalangispora constricta and Isthmotricladia laeensis were found to occur with a very low frequency. In both the streams a maximum number of organisms were collected following the periods of heavy rains. The temperature and pH of stream water do not seem to affect the occurrence of hyphomycetes in streams of this region. On the other hand, the availability of substrates and the oxygen concentration of stream water seem to influence the occurrence of these fungi.     

CT预测甲状腺微小乳头状癌中央区淋巴结转移价值

目的：明确CT在预测甲状腺微小乳头状癌（PTMC）中央区淋巴结转移（CLNM）中的价值。方法：选取成都市第三人民医院157例经病理证实的PTMC患者,回顾分析患者的CT及临床病理资料,受试者工作特征曲线（ROC曲线）得出PTMC长径预测CLNM的最佳截断值,通过CT及临床病理资料建立PTMC CLNM的二元logistic回归模型,并通过ROC曲线评价模型的诊断价值。结果：ROC曲线得出预测PTMC CLNM的最佳截断值为6 mm;单因素分析：咬饼征、微钙化、多灶癌、PTMC长径≥6 mm、男性、年龄<45岁是PTMC CLNM的危险因素;二元Logistic回归分析：咬饼征伴突出（OR=5.159, 95%CI=1.137～23.400）、多灶癌（OR=2.734,95%CI=1.215～6.154）、PTMC长径≥6 mm(OR=3.259,95%CI=1.326～8.008)、男性（OR=3.776,95%CI=1.339～10.653）、年龄<45岁（OR=3.222,95%CI=1.419～7.777）是PTMC CLNM的独立危险因素;ROC曲线得出,约登指数=...     

Characteristic features of atmospheric aerosols over India and their role in warm rain process

Atmospheric aerosols are a crucial link in the physical processes, involved in the formation and growth of precipitating clouds. Extensive aerosol measurements in surface air and in the lower troposphere were made at inland and coastal stations of different regions in India. At inland stations, the hygroscopic fraction of the total aerosol content is found to be a useful characteristic for distinguishing between the monsoon and summer airflow, as well as an indicator for a good or a badly developed monsoon. At coastal stations, however, this feature is not observed.Measurements as a function of height brought out that the aerosol varied widely in air over different seasons. During monsoon, the hygroscopic fraction was found highest at the cloud base level and was closely linked to the development of rain. Details of these investigations are presented.     

Studies of the vertical distribution of atmospheric ozone in association with western disturbances over India

A series of ozone soundings were made at New Delhi (77°E 28°N) from 21 to 30 January 1969 and 10 to 22 February 1972 to study the changes in the vertical distribution of atmospheric ozone associated with western disturbances. The sonde used was the Indian ozonesonde made in the Instruments Laboratories at Poona.In February 1972, two western disturbances moved eastwards in quick succession across the western Himalayas, the first between the 11th and 13th and the second between the 13th and 15th. Associated with the first tropospheric trough was a high-speed jet stream with wind speeds reaching 180 knots, when the tropopause descended to 304 mb over Delhi. The second trough had no high-speed jet associated with it and the tropopause was at 227 mb. Ozone maxima were observed at 350, 180 and 125 mb in addition to the main peak at 35 mb in association with the upper tropospheric troughs over Delhi and its neighbourhood. A similar lowering of the tropopause and the influx of ozone in shallow layers was observed during the passage of two upper air troughs in January 1969. The study shows that with the approach of upper tropospheric troughs and the simultaneous lowering of the tropopause there is an increased influx in shallow layers of middle latitude ozone-rich air through breaks in the tropopause, replacing the subropical ozone-poor air over the station.     

On the Predictability of Northeast Monsoon Rainfall over South Peninsular India in General Circulation Models

In this study the predictability of northeast monsoon (Oct–Nov–Dec) rainfall over peninsular India by eight general circulation model (GCM) outputs was analyzed. These GCM outputs (forecasts for the whole season issued in September) were compared with high-resolution observed gridded rainfall data obtained from the India Meteorological Department for the period 1982–2010. Rainfall, interannual variability (IAV), correlation coefficients, and index of agreement were examined for the outputs of eight GCMs and compared with observation. It was found that the models are able to reproduce rainfall and IAV to different extents. The predictive power of GCMs was also judged by determining the signal-to-noise ratio and the external error variance; it was noted that the predictive power of the models was usually very low. To examine dominant modes of interannual variability, empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis was also conducted. EOF analysis of the models revealed they were capable of representing the observed precipitation variability to some extent. The teleconnection between the sea surface temperature (SST) and northeast monsoon rainfall was also investigated and results suggest that during OND the SST over the equatorial Indian Ocean, the Bay of Bengal, the central Pacific Ocean (over Nino3 region), and the north and south Atlantic Ocean enhances northeast monsoon rainfall. This observed phenomenon is only predicted by the CCM3v6 model.