基于中远场小震结构台阵观测数据的地震响应分析

近年来我国布设的强震动观测结构台阵越来越多,并在数次地震中捕获了一批宝贵的观测记录,这些记录既是对应用日益广泛的结构数值模拟结果的检验和参数标定的依据,也是结构健康监测的重要数据。本文选取昆明防灾减灾中心大楼观测台阵捕获的3次中远场小震记录作为研究对象,对比ANSYS结构数值模拟和观测值之间在时程以及谱特性等方面的响应差别,证明了在弹性范围下二者结果具有较好的一致性。最后,基于观测记录,采用高效简单的经验谱比法进行了结构模态参数快速识别,3次地震下的自振频率计算结果相对稳定,与数值建模计算结果的差值可控制在0.17Hz以内。     

Location Accuracy of the China National Seismograph Network Estimated by Repeating Events

INTRODUCTIONDigital seismological observation in China has had a significant development in recent years,especiallysince the last five years(Liu Ruifeng,et al.,2003).For further development,it isnecessarytoassessthe monitoringcapabilityof the existingseismological network.One of theimportantassessments is the estimation of regionalizedlocation accuracy.Upto present,several approaches have been proposed to assess the location accuracy,such asthe groundtruth event approach(e.g.,Lienert,199…     

The Rise of Earthquake Correlation Range and the Chains of Earthquakes before Large Seismic Events

Izvestiya, Physics of the Solid Earth - The paper summarizes the results of the experiment on advance earthquake forecasting using the Reverse Tracing of Precursors (RTP) algorithm based on the...     

新疆地区典型潜在震源区大震年发生率的估计

利用活动断裂定量研究资料（滑动速率、古地震等）,结合新疆地区的地震构造环境特征分析,研究了典型潜在震源区大震复发模式,建立了具有区域特征的混合模型,以此评定了新疆地区典型潜在震源区大震的年发生率。混合模型由截断G-R关系模型和特征地震模型构成,计算时先分别计算两个模型的大震分震级档年发生率,然后根据潜在震源区地震地质资料的完备性情况、可靠程度以及大震孕育的区域性特征为两个模型的分震级档结果赋予一定权重,最后求两个模型的加权和。大震复发间隔的计算中利用汶川地震与集集地震的最大垂直位错和平均垂直位错统计关系约束了逆冲型断裂的平均位错量,潜源区的大震年发生率的计算考虑了级联破裂问题。结果表明,本研究所得高震级档大震年发生率比第三代、第四代地震区划图小,文中对这一现象产生的原因进行了初步分析。     

活断层定量资料在大震年发生率评定中的应用

大震年发生率的评定在地震区划中是一项非常重要的工作。但由于大震复发行为的复杂性,目前尚未建立合理的大震复发模型。本文通过美国地震区划图的截断G—R关系模型和特征地震模型组成的混合模型,利用活断层地质定量资料（滑动速率、古地震等）评定了大震的年发生率。结合我国的地震构造环境特征和资料的精细程度,将以上方法加以修正,并选择典型断裂进行了计算,同时还把计算结果与我国第三代、第四代地震区划图进行了比较和分析。     

华北地区大地震矩释放率和GPS应变率的一致性研究

GPS测量技术可以在较大地区范围内获得高精度地壳形变速率。稳定的应变速率提供了精确确定地震活动率的机会。本文运用Kostrov(1974)的公式将经平滑的华北地区应变速率转化为矩释放率，并与运用1303年洪洞地震以来的地震目录计算的矩释放率进行比较，发现两者之比南北向为60．6％，东西向为68．9％，北东剪切分量为104．1％。近似为1的比率表明了GPS测量结果的可靠性。这个结果对结合历史地震及大地形变测量估计矩释放进行地震危险性评估具有一定参考意义。     

On the Consistency of Large Earthquake Moment and Strain Rate Inferred from GPS Data in North China

INTRODUCTIONStudyingthe relation between the accumulation of crustal strain and the release rate of seismicmoment is animportant subject of earth science research.It is also one of the important methods ofestimatingthe future seismic risk(Ward,1994;1998a;…     

Space- and Time-Dependent Probabilities for Earthquake Fault Systems from Numerical Simulations: Feasibility Study and First Results

In weather forecasting, current and past observational data are routinely assimilated into numerical simulations to produce ensemble forecasts of future events in a process termed “model steering”. Here we describe a similar approach that is motivated by analyses of previous forecasts of the Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities (WGCEP). Our approach is adapted to the problem of earthquake forecasting using topologically realistic numerical simulations for the strike-slip fault system in California. By systematically comparing simulation data to observed paleoseismic data, a series of spatial probability density functions (PDFs) can be computed that describe the probable locations of future large earthquakes. We develop this approach and show examples of PDFs associated with magnitude M > 6.5 and M > 7.0 earthquakes in California.     

Attenuation Characteristics of Earthquake Ground Motion for Large Volume Airgun

In order to further deepen the understanding of seismic wave propagation characteristics induced by the large volume airgun source, experimental data from multiple fixed excitation points in Fujian Province were used to obtain the equivalent single excitation high signal-to-noise ratio velocity and displacement records through linear stacking and simulation techniques. Then the peak displacements of different epicentral distances were used to calculate the equivalent magnitude of the airgun source excitation at different fixed excitation points so as to establish the attenuation relationship between equivalent magnitude,epicenter distance and velocity peak. Our results show that:① Within 270 km of epicentral distance,for the large-volume airgun's single shot,the peak velocity range is about 700-4 nm/s,and the peak displacement range is about 200. 0-0. 2 nm;② The equivalent magnitude of the P-wave from the airgun source with a total capacity of 8,000 in 3 is 0. 181-0. 760,and the equivalent magnitude of the S-wave is 0. 294-0. 832. By contrast,the equivalent magnitude of the P-wave from the airgun source with a total capacity of 12,000 in 3 is 0. 533-0. 896,and the equivalent magnitude of the S-wave is 0. 611-0. 946. The S-wave energy is greater than the P-wave energy, and the excitation efficiency varies greatly with different excitation environment;③ The peak velocity increases with the equivalent magnitude,and decreases with the epicentral distance. The vertical component of the P-wave peak velocity is the largest among those three components,while the S-wave has the smallest vertical component and similar horizontal components. Hence,our research can provide an important basis for the quantitative judgment of the seismic wave propagation distance using the airgun and the design of the observation system in deep exploration or monitoring with airgun.     

Characterization of the Frequency of Extreme Earthquake Events by the Generalized Pareto Distribution

Recent results in extreme value theory suggest a new technique for statistical estimation of distribution tails (Embrechts et al., 1997), based on a limit theorem known as the Gnedenko-Pickands-Balkema-de Haan theorem. This theorem gives a natural limit law for peak-over-threshold values in the form of the Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD), which is a family of distributions with two parameters. The GPD has been successfully applied in a number of statistical problems related to finance, insurance, hydrology, and other domains. Here, we apply the GPD approach to the well-known seismological problem of earthquake energy distribution described by the Gutenberg-Richter seismic moment-frequency law. We analyze shallow earthquakes (depth h<70 km) in the Harvard catalog over the period 1977–2000 in 12 seismic zones. The GPD is found to approximate the tails of the seismic moment distributions quite well over the lower threshold approximately M 10²⁴ dyne-cm, or somewhat above (i.e., moment-magnitudes larger than m _W =5.3). We confirm that the b-value is very different (b=2.06 ± 0.30) in mid-ocean ridges compared to other zones (b=1.00 ± 0.04) with a very high statistical confidence and propose a physical mechanism contrasting crack-type rupture with dislocation-type behavior. The GPD can as well be applied in many problems of seismic hazard assessment on a regional scale. However, in certain cases, deviations from the GPD at the very end of the tail may occur, in particular for large samples signaling a novel regime.     

Systematic Procedural and Sensitivity Analysis of the Pattern Informatics Method for Forecasting Large (M > 5) Earthquake Events in Southern California

Recent studies in the literature have introduced a new approach to earthquake forecasting based on representing the space-time patterns of localized seismicity by a time-dependent system state vector in a real-valued Hilbert space and deducing information about future space-time fluctuations from the phase angle of the state vector. While the success rate of this Pattern Informatics (PI) method has been encouraging, the method is still in its infancy. Procedural analysis, statistical testing, parameter sensitivity investigation and optimization all still need to be performed. In this paper, we attempt to optimize the PI approach by developing quantitative values for ``predictive goodness'' and analyzing possible variations in the proposed procedure. In addition, we attempt to quantify the systematic dependence on the quality of the input catalog of historic data and develop methods for combining catalogs from regions of different seismic rates.     

印度洋大地震与海啸灾害综述

2004年12月26日8时58分,印尼苏门答腊岛附近海域发生M8.7地震（百年以来第5次大地震）,其引发的海啸波及了东南亚和南亚至少10个国家,截至2005年3月5日已造成28万人死亡和重大财产损失.这是自1964年3月以来世界上发生的最强烈地震,此次海啸是1900年以来这一地区发生的最大海啸.叙述了此次地震和海啸的破坏情况以及受灾国的应急救援工作和国际社会的反应.概述了地震海啸灾害及其研究简况.     

应重视大地震预测物理基础的研究

1973年美国肖尔兹(Scholz C H)等在Science杂志上发表了“地震预测的物理基础”一文, 近几十年来世界上地震预测研究的实践并未证实该论文的科学性。 2010年肖尔兹又在Science杂志上发表了“预测之谜”的论文, 指出“现在还不能预报”地震, 他本人已否定了以前提出的地震预测物理基础的研究结果。 本文分析了肖尔兹等人以前提出的“物理基础”在科学上不能成立的原因。 地震预测研究的重点是大地震的预测, 本文指出, 大地震与小地震的不同之处在于: 大地震的初始破裂发生后会有一个长时间的断层动态破裂过程, 该过程使大地震的尺度很大。 大地震预测的最难之处就在于动态破裂过程开始后, 我们无法预测破裂会扩展到多大才会停止, 无法预测地震的大小。 在由破裂动态扩展形成的大尺度的断层面上, 在初始破裂发生前, 那里的应力并没有达到当地的静态破裂强度(或静摩擦限), 因而那里不会出现由小岩样实验结果所预言的“前兆”。 鉴于以前关于地震预测物理基础的研究结果不再适用了, 我们需要研究新的大地震预测的物理基础是什么。 关于这个问题本文提出一点初步思考, 主要依据大地形变测量、 地震活动及地质断层研究相结合的方法, 勘查近期活动断蹭的闭锁段, 这是个值得重点研究的方向。     

合成的台湾M_S8.0级大震在上海产生的地震动

2015年4月25日尼泊尔发生了M_S8.1级地震,给人们的提示是:在发生过强震的地方,有可能再次发生同样强度的地震。自上世纪20年代以来,台湾就发生过两次M_S8.0级大地震,遗憾的是对两次强震均未获得强震加速度记录。上海是目前世界上高层建筑最多的城市。本文用经验格林函数法合成台湾M_S8.0级大地震,通过合成得到加速度时程来估算对上海产生的地表面波强度。将来台湾一旦发生M_S8.0级大地震,其面波对上海高层建筑的影响也将最为显著,本文给出的估算强度旨在为地震应对和应急救援提供一定的参考。     

小应力变化触发大地震的研究

近年来,地震的孕育和发生是否可以用临界现象来模拟的问题引起地震学家的广泛关注.研究这个问题的方法之一是检验小应力变化是否确实触发大地震发生.这种检验必须具备两个条件:第一是作用在地震孕震断层上的小应力变化,第二是选择地震发生需要不同环境应力水平的地震.相同量级的小应力变化对于不同环境应力水平下发生地震的影响如果没有区别,则触发效应不存在;如果有明显差别,则触发效应存在.     

浅析太原盆地小震活动的时间特征

通过对山西地震台网近年来记录到的太原地区小震活动的分布情况、地震频度及能量释放强度的分析,得出该盆地地震活动在时间分布上具有丛集性的结论。统计分析认为该区发震概率最大时间段为每年的１月、２月、６月、１１月份。     

提高年尺度地震预报成功率的新思路

通过回顾甘肃省近20多年的地震预报工作,发现年尺度地震预报成功率不足8％。分析了年尺度地震预报成功率低下的原因和提高年尺度地震预报成功率在实现具有减灾实效地震预报的目标中的重要意义。最后提出了在对甘肃及邻区地震构造环境、地球物理场和地震资料搜集、整理和分析的基础上,探讨其与强震活动的关联性,寻找地震发生的时、空、强分布规律,建立具有明确构造物理含义的地震预测模型,先进行长期地震危险性分析,再开展年尺度的地震跟踪预报的新思路。沿用这一思路,预期可以减少虚报,进而提高年尺度地震预报成功率。