水库诱发地震的最大震级及其发震时间的预测研究

用信息量法和灰色模型法研究了水库诱发地震的最大震级和发震时间．信息量法是对水库地震震例的地震地质因素和标志进行统计，计算它们对诱发地震震级提供的信息量，据信息量的大小判断诱发地震的可能最大震级；灰色模型法是研究水库诱发地震前震的频次随时间的变化，以变化率最大的时间作为最大地震发生的时间．用新丰江和柯依纳水库地震震例资料对信息量法和灰色模型法进行了检验．结果表明，两种模型方法有一定的可行性．      

Pore pressure diffusion and the mechanism of reservoir-induced seismicity

The study of reservoir-induced seismicity offers a controlled setting to understand the physics of the earthquake process. Data from detailed investigations at reservoirs in South Carolina suggested that the mechanism of transmission of stress to hypocentral locations is by a process of diffusion of pore pressure (Pp). These results were compared with available worldwide data. The seismic hydraulic diffusivity, _s , was estimated from various seismological observations, and was found to be a good estimate of the material hydraulic diffusivity, . Application of these results to a dedicated experiment to understand RIS at Monticello Reservoir, S.C., suggested that the diffusing Pp front plays a dual role in the triggering of seismicity. The spatial and temporal pattern of RIS can be explained by the mechanical effect of diffusion of Pp with a characteristic hydraulic diffusivity within an order of magnitude of 5×10⁴ cm²/s, corresponding to permeability values in the millidarcy range. The triggering of seismicity is due to the combined mechanical effect of Pp in reducing the strength and, possibly, the chemical effect in reducing the coefficient of friction between the clays in the pre-existing fractures and the rocks that enclose these fractures.     

水库诱发地震研究的历史、现状与发展趋势

简要回顾了水库诱发地震(RIS)研究的历史。从诱震库区的地质构造条件、水库蓄水诱震机理的数学物理模型、水库诱发地震的地震学、水库诱发地层危险性评价的理论和方法四个方面，介绍了水库诱发地震研究过程中各阶段所取得的重要认识。指出了目前水库诱发地震研究中存在的主要问题。提出以岩体结构控制论为理论基础，重视库区岩体结构、水文地质结构研究以取得诱震环境模型的发展与创新，以非均质各向异性介质环境流固耦合数值模拟为手段，以取得诱震机理认识的深化，是未来水库诱发地层研究的发展趋势。     

Evidence for induced seismicity in the vicinity of Fierza reservoir,Northern Albania

The reservoir of Fierza on the Drini River, Northern Albania, is Albania's largest reservoir and it is one of the world's largest reservoirs of high dams (reservoir volume at maximum water level, 2.8 * 10⁹ m³; dam height, 167 m and dam capacity 8 * 10⁶ m³). We compare pre-and postimpounding seismicity of the area surrounding the Fierza reservoir. An increase of seismic microactivity was observed after the impounding of the reservoir. More than 300 microearthquakes, occurred in the immediate vicinity of the main body of the reservoir, with local magnitude ranging between 1.3 and 3.6. A significant change of theb value in the magnitude-frequency relationship was observed. One swarm of microtremors occurred in the northern part of the reservoir on April 4–5, 1981, where an alteration of the tensor of natural tectonic stresses is revealed. The theoretical additional stress and displacement induced by water-load in the bank of the reservoir were estimated for four cross-profiles of the reservoir area and the maximum values resulted near the location of the above swarm.     

水库地震诱震区预测与强度评估

以四川西部地区几个水库诱发地震预测评估资料为基础,总结了水库诱发地震研究中对库区内诱震区段的５条预测依据及３条诱中度评估判断方法,其最终结论意见应以各条依据或方法为基础,综合评定。     

水库诱发地震活动特征及其预测方法研究

根据国内外水库诱发地震的观测与研究震例,分析研究了一些著名水库诱发序列的地震活动特征,并根据水库诱发地震随水库蓄水时间的变化,把水库诱发地震活动归纳为迅速响应型、延迟响应型和混合响应型三类,分析讨论了这三类水库诱发地震活动在时间和空间分布上的不同特点,并在此基础上综合分析了水库诱发地震预测方法研究的技术途径.     

Nonlinear magnitude frequency relation and two types of seismicity systems

A nonlinear magnitude frequency equation has been derived in this paper on the assumption that all seismicity systems hold fractal characteristics, and according to the differences of relevant coefficients in the equation, seismicity systems are classified into two types: type I, the whole earthquake activity is controlled by only one great unified system; type II, the whole earthquake activity is controlled by more than one great system. One type of seismicity system may convert to the other type, generally. For example, a type I system will change to a type II system prior to the occurrence of a strong earthquake in North China. This change can be regarded as an index for earthquake trend estimation. In addition, the difference between b value in nonlinear magnitude frequency equation and that in linear equation and the term dΔM related to the coefficients of nonlinear terms obtained in this paper are proved to be a pair of available parameters for medium short term earthquake prediction.     

Speculation on the causes of continuing seismicity near Koyna reservoir,India

The cause for continuous induced seismicity at Koyna is not well understood. A heuristic model based on various physical parameters observed at Koyna is being proposed to explain the ongoing seismicity. This model contains two essential elements: (i) Intersecting faults near Koyna provide means of stress build-up in response to plate tectonic forces. (ii) The annual reservoir loading cycle and changes in the ground water table perturb this stress build-up by an influx of pore pressure in a fluid infiltrated medium. Hence, the spatial and temporal pattern of the pore prussure distribution and the seismicity will be governed by the location and hydromechanical properties of the faults and fractures. The predictions of the model can be tested by comparing the temporal and spatial pattern of seismicity with the changes in lake level and water table.     

水库诱发地震震级预测的统计研究

于收集到的全球102例水库及已发地震的资料,应用隶属函数方法综合分析了水库基本属性、震中区岩性、库坝区基本烈度和震中区断层类型等与水库诱发地震之间的关系,从统计学角度给出了水库诱发最大地震震级的判定方法．通过回溯检验和费舍尔判别检验给出了预测震级的相对误差和正确识别率,总体预测效果较好,可为将来水库的设防和最大地震震级的判定提供统计学上的依据．      

我国近年水库地震监测综述

在较完整地收集我国水库诱发地震震例的基础上,回顾了我国水库诱发地震监测的成长进步厍程。本文认为无线遥测组网和计算机实时处理方式是我国近年水库诱发地震监测的主流,数字化则是其发展方向。作者提出了按地震监测系统的主要特征。对水库地震监测台网分类划代方法,将我国已客在建的水库地震监测台网划分四代。本文较详细地介绍了近年建成投测的二滩,大桥、小浪底和李家峡等第三代水库遥测地震台网的基本情况。对正在设计建设     

Induced seismicity at wujiangdu reservoir,China: a case induced in the karst area

To date 19 cases of reservoir-induced seismicity have been acknowledged in China and 15 of them are associated with karst. The Wujiangdu case is a typical one induced in the karst area. The dam with a height of 165 m is the highest built in a karst area in China. Seismic activity has been successively induced in five reservoir segments seven months after the impoundment in 1979. A temporary seismic network consisting of 8 stations was set up in one of the segments some 40 km upstream from the dam. The results indicate that epicenters were distributed along the immediate banks, composed of karstified carbonate, and focal depths were only several hundred meters. Most of the focal mechanisms were of thrust and normal faulting. It is suggested that karst may be an important factor in inducing seismicity. It can provide an hydraulic connection to change the saturation and pressure and also weak planes for dislocation to induce seismicity.     

水口水库地震对南平地区的影响

水口水库建成蓄水后诱发了频繁的地震活动，延续时间已达8年之久，,学在继续活动。近年来，南平地区的邵武，政和等地也相继有中小地震活动，为了摸清南平地区地震活动与水口水库诱发地震是否关联，本文对该地区及水口水库诱发地震前后的地震活动性及时空特征，区域构造背景及水库诱发地震的活动趋势进行综合分析研究。     

Full moment tensor inversion constrained by double-couple focal mechanism for induced seismicity*

In this study, we propose a new method to determine full moment tensor solution for induced seismicity. This method generalizes the full waveform matching algorithm we have developed to determine the double-couple (DC) focal mechanism based on the neighbourhood algorithm. One major difference between the new method and the former one is that we adopt a new misfit function to constrain the candidate moment tensor solutions with respect to a reference DC solution in addition to other misfit terms characterizing the waveform matching. Through synthetic tests using a real passive seismic survey geometry, the results show the new constraint can help better recover the DC components of inverted moment tensors. We further investigate how errors in the velocity model and source location affect the moment tensor solution. The synthetic test results indicate that the constrained inversion is robust in recovering both the DC and non-DC components. We also test the proposed method on several real induced events in an oil/gas field in Oman using the same observation system as synthetic tests. While it is found that the full moment tensor solutions without using the DC constraints have much larger non-DC components than solutions with the DC constraints, both solutions are able to fit the observed waveforms at similar levels. The synthetic and real test results suggest the proposed DC constrained inversion method can reliably retrieve full moment tensor solutions for the induced seismicity.     

位于构造活跃区的小湾水库地震活动特征——基于地震精定位的分析

针对我国在西南构造活跃区修建的水库蓄水与地震活动的关系,本文对蓄水已长达7年并在高水位运维多个周期的云南小湾水库,采用结合波形互相关技术的双差地震定位法对水库库区及周边地区2005年7月至2014年12月发生的M≥1.0级地震进行了精定位处理,结果显示出明显的地震成丛活动特征,库区内外的地震震源深度差别较大.对地震震源深度、地震活动与水库蓄水水位及b值分析结果表明:小湾水库蓄水后地震活动明显增多,有水库触发地震发生,触发地震主要分布在沿黑惠江(A)和澜沧江流域(B、C)的3组地震丛中,且3个区的触发地震类型均为快速响应型;在水库蓄水响应活动最明显的地震丛集区A,展现出明显的随水库蓄水水体渗透发生地震"迁移"活动的现象;但库区内也存在着与蓄水关系不大的可能属于正常构造地震的活动,而库区外的地震活动与水库蓄水没有什么相关性,很可能是属于正常的构造地震.综合断层展布、岩性分布及震源深度分析,认为水库蓄水引起的溶岩作用和渗透作用及断层活动可能是小湾水库触发地震的主控因素.     

二滩水电站水库诱发地震预测

二滩水电站是国内仅次于长江三峡水电站正在建设中的最大水电站。二滩水电站水库可能诱发ＭＳ＝５．０±０．５的水库地震;在二滩水电站水库区域里的４条主要断层中的３条断层诱发水库地震的条件概率是相当高的;在各主要断层中诱发水库地震的概率排序为树河－普威断层,李明久断层,西番田断层,头滩断层     

龙滩水库蓄水后库区中小地震震源机制

本文在对龙滩库区2006年9月30日至2013年5月26日发生的3682次地震进行精定位的基础上,利用FOCMEC方法和改进的格点尝试法反演了ML2.0以上地震震源机制及区域构造应力场,并综合龙滩库区地层岩性、断裂构造和渗透条件等资料,探讨了地震活动类型与库区蓄水过程的关系,获得以下认识:(1)龙滩水库蓄水后的地震活动主要丛集在罗妥、八茂、拉浪、坝首和布柳河5个深水区,地震类型以逆断为主,正断和走滑也占有一定比例.蓄水初期,库区地震类型呈现多样性,蓄水约4年3个月后,地震主要发生在浅部地层中,并大多为逆断型地震.(2)5个地震丛构造应力场最大主应力方向以NW-SE为主,倾角均较小,中等和最小主应力分布较凌乱,在此构造应力环境中,龙滩库区主要断裂整体上呈现走滑运动的性质,局部伴生不同程度的逆倾滑或正倾滑运动分量.(3)库区深、浅部地震活动水平和地震性质之所以会随蓄水过程发生变化,可能与深、浅部构造应力环境、岩体力学性质和渗透性能的差异有关.     

龙泉山断裂带地震活动性浅析

通过对龙泉山断裂带东坡断裂和西坡断裂的地震活动性研究,表明该带是一条活断层。历史地震记载和现今地震活动均呈现沿断裂带分布,地震活动呈现周期性和南北跳迁的特点,近10年来地震监测资料表明该带地震活动在增强。     

海城地震窗地震活动异常提取及其预报效能

一个时间序列可以分解为趋势周期(含季节周期)部分和不规则随机部分.趋势周期部分是序列的潜在部分,它反映了增长、下降和周期影响的长期变动规律,具有确定性或可预测性;不规则随机部分包含残差、突然等因素引起的突变量,具有不可预测性.当趋势周期部分被确定后,它可通过计算得到.本文研究了1975年海城Ms7.3地震孕育、发生的断...     

Pore fluid pressure effects in anisotropic rocks: Mechanisms of induced seismicity and weak faults

Many observations and studies indicate that pore fluid pressure in the crustal rocks plays an important role in deformation, faulting, and earthquake processes. Conventional models of pore pressure effects often assume isotropic porous rocks and yield the nondeviatoric pressure effects which seem insufficient to explain diverse phenomena related to pore pressure variation, such as fluid-extraction induced seismicity and crustal weak faults. We derive the anisotropic effective stress law especially for transversely-isotropic and orthotropic rocks, and propose that the deviatoric effects of pore fluid pressure in anisotropic rocks not only affect rock effective strength but also cause variation of shear stresses. Such shear stress variations induced by either pore pressure buildup or pore pressure decline may lead to faulting instability and trigger earthquakes, and provide mechanisms for the failure of crustal weak faults with low level of shear stresses. We believe that the deviatoric effects of pore fluid pressure in anisotropic rocks are of wide application in studies of earthquake precursors and aftershocks, oil and gas reservoir characterization, enhanced oil recovery, and hydraulic fracturing.     

水库诱发地震时空演化与库水加卸载及渗透过程的关系——以紫坪铺水库为例

为了解水库蓄水过程中,水库诱发地震活动的动态响应机制,本文建立了针对水库诱发地震(Reservoir-induced seismicity,RIS)定量化研究的数理模型,并以紫坪铺水库为例,对库区地质构造及水文地质结构条件、水库蓄水后库区小震活动时空演化特征进行了详细的研究.在此基础上,利用有限元方法计算了水库蓄水过程中弹性附加应力场、有效附加应力场、孔隙压力和断层稳定性的动态变化,讨论了RIS时空演化与库水加卸载及渗透过程的动态响应关系.结果表明:(1) RIS诱发机制的定量化模型可分为2个层次:一是以孔隙介质为载体的流体渗流对岩体变形和稳定性的影响,由流-固耦合形式的岩体变形与孔隙渗流模型进行描述;二是对断层相关的RIS定量研究可将水库附加水头压力沿断层面(区)的扩散与断层库仑应力变化联系起来.两种形式模型方法的结合能为RIS定量研究提供一个相对宏观的力学框架;(2) 断裂渗透结构对孔隙压力变化下断裂的力学响应具有重要的影响,研究区主干断裂可能属于一种上盘破碎带导水、下盘地层及断层核阻水的下阻上导型的渗透结构类型,不同程度的具有使地表水体向深部渗流的通道性.库区深部岩体渗透稳定性的差异在很大程度上导致了诱发地震活动对岩性条件的依赖.(3) 紫坪铺水库蓄水后,小震活动在空间分布上呈现出条带状分布、丛集分布和地震迁移的特点,小震震源深度优势分布在地下4~10 km范围内,在通济场断裂与安县—灌县断裂的深部汇聚区域震源分布最为密集.同时,小震活动主要集中发生在脆性程度高、渗透稳定性低的碳酸盐岩地层中,而在岩性较软弱、渗透稳定性高的三叠系须家河组砂泥岩和煤系地层中很少有地震发生.在水库蓄水后地震活动的时间响应特征上,水库西南侧和东北侧两个丛集区的小震活动可能属于快速响应型RIS,而都江堰小震群活动可能属于滞后响应型诱发地震活动;(4) RIS的发生与库水加卸载及渗透过程中库底岩体有效应力的变化密切相关.在以挤压为主的构造应力环境中,库体荷载作用的结果一般会使库底断层更趋向稳定,而水库附加水头压力扩散的效应则是促使断层趋向失稳,正是这个矛盾双方相互制约与平衡的动态过程,控制了断层库仑应力变化的取向,从而决定了RIS时空演化的规律.