Dynamics of greenhouse gases in the river–groundwater interface in a gaining river stretch (Triffoy catchment,Belgium)

This study investigates the occurrence of greenhouse gases (GHGs) and the role of groundwater as an indirect pathway of GHG emissions into surface waters in a gaining stretch of the Triffoy River agricultural catchment (Belgium). To this end, nitrous oxide (N₂O), methane (CH₄) and carbon dioxide (CO₂) concentrations, the stable isotopes of nitrate, and major ions were monitored in river and groundwater over 8 months. Results indicated that groundwater was strongly oversaturated in N₂O and CO₂ with respect to atmospheric equilibrium (50.1 vs. 0.55 μg L^?1 for N₂O and 14,569 vs. 400 ppm for CO₂), but only marginally for CH₄ (0.45 vs. 0.056 μg L^?1), suggesting that groundwater can be a source of these GHGs to the atmosphere. Nitrification seemed to be the main process for the accumulation of N₂O in groundwater. Oxic conditions prevailing in the aquifer were not prone for the accumulation of CH₄. In fact, the emissions of CH₄ from the river were one to two orders of magnitude higher than the inputs from groundwater, meaning that CH₄ emissions from the river were due to CH₄ in-situ production in riverbed or riparian zone sediments. For CO₂ and N₂O, average emissions from groundwater were 1.5?×?10⁵ kg CO₂ ha^?1 year^?1 and 207 kg N₂O ha^?1 year^?1, respectively. Groundwater is probably an important source of N₂O and CO₂ in gaining streams but when the measures are scaled at catchment scale, these fluxes are probably relatively modest. Nevertheless, their quantification would better constrain nitrogen and carbon budgets in natural systems.     

Application of the water balance model J2000 to estimate groundwater recharge in a semi-arid environment: a case study in the Zarqa River catchment, NW-Jordan

Pollution and overexploitation of scarce groundwater resources is a serious problem in the Zarqa River catchment, Jordan. To estimate this resource’s potential, the amount and spatial distribution of groundwater recharge was calculated by applying the hydrological model J2000. The simulation period is composed of daily values gathered over a 30-year period (July 1977 to June 2007). The figure finally obtained for estimated groundwater recharge of the Zarqa River catchment is 105 × 10⁶ m³ per year (21 mm a^?1). This is 19 % higher than the value previously assumed to be correct by most Jordanian authorities. The average ratio of precipitation to groundwater recharge is 9.5 %. To directly validate modelled groundwater recharge, two independent methods were applied in spring catchments: (1) alteration of stable isotope signatures (δ¹⁸O, δ²H) between precipitation and groundwater and (2) the chloride mass balance method. Recharge rates determined by isotopic investigations are 25 % higher, and recharge rates determined by chloride mass balance are 9 % higher than the modelled results for the corresponding headwater catchments. This suggests a reasonably modelled safe yield estimation of groundwater resources.     

Geomorphology and the controls of geohydrology on waterlogging in Gangetic Plains,North Bihar,India

Waterlogging is a complex phenomenon, the severity of which depends on a number of natural as well as anthropogenic factors. The present study pertains to the evaluation of control exerted by various factors, viz geomorphology, relief, groundwater fluctuation, rainfall, catchment area and canal–road network density, on waterlogging in the north Bihar region of Gangetic Plains. Satellite images IRS P6 LISS III acquired in the years 2005 and 2006 were used to map temporal variability in surface waterlogging which revealed a reduction of 52 % in the waterlogging area during the pre-monsoon. The seasonal groundwater fluctuation was examined using 2005–2006 pre- and post-monsoon water level data. It clearly indicated that a large portion of the area was also under highly critical groundwater level occurring at a depth of less than 1 m belowground surface during the post-monsoon periods. The percentage of waterlogged area per square kilometer in each geomorphological unit clearly depicts that the Kosi megafan (Lower), because of a high density of paleochannels, comprises the highest post-monsoon waterlogged area. The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) data were analyzed for the period 1998–2009 to examine the spatial variability of rainfall over the entire catchment during the monsoon period. The high incidence of post-monsoon surface waterlogging delineated through satellite data and high average rainfall (>1,100 mm) in the same area indicates a positive relationship between rainfall and surface waterlogging. Waterlogging is more prominent in the lower relief zones, but anomalous relative rise in waterlogging within 40–50 m of relief zone was attributed to anthropogenic factors primarily related to the development of canal network.     

Groundwater flow and radioactivity in Namaqualand, South Africa

The Namaqualand area is located in the Northern Cape Province of South Africa which is characterised by arid climate where groundwater is the only source of water supply for local communities. Extensive groundwater sampling was carried out in the area and the physico-chemical parameters, inorganic constituents, stable isotopes and trace metals were measured. The hydrochemistry of the area indicates dissimilar groundwater composition due to complex geochemical processes where groundwater flow takes place from catchment F30A to the catchment D82B, and the chemistry is controlled primarily by Redox reaction, dissolution and mixing processes. The Br^?/Cl^? ratio revealed that the salinity in the area is derived from seawater mixing, halite dissolution and atmospheric deposition/sea aerosol spray. Under excessive evaporative condition due to climatic aridity, groundwater salinity shows increasing trend. Isotope results show the presence of shallow-weathered zone and deep-fracture controlled circulating groundwater in the crystalline basement aquifer of the area. In comparison to the South African water quality standard, the results obtained for gross alpha activity which could be derived from uranium isotopes show that 41 % of the reported data in the area fall above the drinking water limit.     

Availability of coastal groundwater discharge as an alternative water resource in a large-scale reclaimed land,Korea

This study was conducted to identify the availability of coastal groundwater discharge (CGD), subsurface fluids flowing from inland through the coastal area to sea, as an alternative water resource for a large-scale reclaimed land. The behaviors of stable isotopes indicated that groundwater originated from inland precipitation and traveled as CGD along the coast line. Most of the groundwater samples collected from domestic wells installed along the old coast line were considered to be relatively fresh from the correlation analysis among chemical constituents. The average electrical conductivity (EC) values of the samples were identified as averaging 1,125–1,297 μS cm^?1, corresponding to appropriate crop growth. A weathered-rock layer in a small catchment within the reclaimed land was proved to be a main CGD pathway, with electrical resistivity anomalies ranging from 7 to 14 Ω m. Five monitoring wells were placed in this catchment to delineate the occurrence of CGD. Long-term vertical EC profiling results for the monitoring wells indicated that CGD occurs within a depth of 30 m below the ground surface. Annual monitoring data for groundwater level and EC demonstrated that the water quality of CGD was improved by introducing fresh terrestrial groundwater. A remarkable improvement in water quality (EC decrease of 900–1,600 μS cm^?1) of CGD was observed during the saline water pumping test that explains how CGD could be an alternative water resource for the reclaimed land.     

Regional modeling of geothermal energy systems in shallow aquifers: the Leibnitzer Feld case study (Austria)

Large thermal extractions and extensive implementation of groundwater heat pumps (GWHP) necessitate a validation of the sustainability of their use and possible detrimental effects on groundwater. The goal of this work is to develop a regional heat transport model (of ~13 km × 5 km) for real site conditions. This model should consider all relevant transport processes, despite the large area under investigation. The model is based on a two-dimensional, transient-calibrated groundwater flow model for the “Leibnitzer Feld” (Styria, Austria). The two-dimensional horizontal model is linked via the FEFLOW interface manager with a newly developed “Multi-Layer-Model”-tool, which reproduces thermal aquifer–atmosphere interaction. Based on the regional heat transport model, scenarios are delineated for heating and cooling purposes for large GWHPs, which are appropriate for a small manufacturing business, an administrative building and 10 family homes. First of all, these have large spacing and thereafter, effects of area-covering usage of geothermal systems are evaluated for five administrative buildings located in close proximity to one another (200–350 m) and also for a large number of smaller heat extractions (each representing a one family house system). Modeled spatial and temporal temperature effects on the shallow aquifer are discussed. It was possible to present a simulation of realistic heating and cooling scenarios. This simulation may be introduced into practice once some further simplifications to the system are made. Locally limited heat plumes (max. length: 625 m) were observed for the manufacturing business. Any thermal effects coming from the geothermal systems were shown to be temporally stable. As such, no distinct trend of reduced annual temperatures could be observed.     

Assessment of shallow groundwater in Lake Nyos catchment (Cameroon,Central-Africa): implications for hydrogeochemical controls and uses

In 1986, carbon dioxide gas exploded from Lake Nyos and killed about 1,800 people. After that disaster, various administrative and research activities have been conducted to mitigate subsequent disasters. However, none of those endeavors have characterized the groundwater chemistry to identify hydrogeochemical processes that control the water chemistry, and the quality of the water for domestic and agricultural uses that support the lives of un-official resettlers around Lake Nyos. Conventional hydrochemical techniques coupled with statistical and graphical analysis were therefore employed to establish the baseline hydrochemical conditions, assess processes controlling solutes distribution in shallow groundwater in the Lake Nyos catchment and explore its usability. Groundwater samples were analyzed for their physical and chemical properties. The wide ranges of electrical conductivity and total dissolved solid values reveal the heterogeneous distribution of groundwater within the watershed. The relative abundance of major dissolved species was Ca > Mg > Na > K for cations and HCO₃ >>> Cl > SO₄ > NO₃ for anions. Piper diagram classified almost all water samples into mixed CaMg–HCO₃ water type. Major ion geochemistry reveals that, in addition to silicates weathering (water–rock interaction), ion exchange processes regulate the groundwater chemistry. Principal component analysis supports the occurrence of water rock interaction. Hierarchical cluster analysis showed that the chemistry of groundwater in the study area is controlled by three main factors, and suggests no hydraulic connectivity between deep lake water and groundwater in the catchment. The quality assessment of the groundwater showed that groundwater parameters are within the acceptable limit of the World Health Organization and Nigeria guidelines for drinking and domestic uses, and water found to be good for irrigation.     

Determining the groundwater potential recharge zone and karst springs catchment area: Saldoran region,western Iran

Assessing the groundwater recharge potential zone and differentiation of the spring catchment area are extremely important to effective management of groundwater systems and protection of water quality. The study area is located in the Saldoran karstic region, western Iran. It is characterized by a high rate of precipitation and recharge via highly permeable fractured karstic formations. Pire-Ghar, Sarabe-Babaheydar and Baghe-rostam are three major karstic springs which drain the Saldoran anticline. The mean discharge rate and electrical conductivity values for these springs were 3, 1.9 and 0.98 m³/s, and 475, 438 and 347 μS/cm, respectively. Geology, hydrogeology and geographical information system (GIS) methods were used to define the catchment areas of the major karstic springs and to map recharge zones in the Saldoran anticline. Seven major influencing factors on groundwater recharge rates (lithology, slope value and aspect, drainage, precipitation, fracture density and karstic domains) were integrated using GIS. Geology maps and field verification were used to determine the weights of factors. The final map was produced to reveal major zones of recharge potential. More than 80 % of the study area is terrain that has a recharge rate of 55–70 % (average 63 %). Evaluating the water budget of Saldoran Mountain showed that the total volume of karst water emerging from the Saldoran karst springs is equal to the total annual recharge on the anticline. Therefore, based on the geological and hydrogeological investigations, the catchment area of the mentioned karst springs includes the whole Saldoran anticline.     

Modes,hydrodynamic processes and ecological impacts exerted by river–groundwater transformation in Junggar Basin,China

The hydrodynamic processes and impacts exerted by river–groundwater transformation need to be studied at regional and catchment scale, especially with respect to diverse geology and lithology. This work adopted an integrated method to study four typical modes (characterized primarily by lithology, flow subsystems, and gaining/losing river status) and the associated hydrodynamic processes and ecological impacts in the southern part of Junggar Basin, China. River–groundwater transformation occurs one to four times along the basin route. For mode classification, such transformation occurs: once or twice, controlled by lithological factors (mode 1); twice, impacted by geomorphic features and lithological structures (mode 2); and three or four times, controlled by both geological and lithological structures (modes 3 and 4). Results also suggest: (1) there exist local and regional groundwater flow subsystems at ~400 m depth, which form a multistage nested groundwater flow system. The groundwater flow velocities are 0.1–1.0 and?<0.1 m/day for each of two subsystems; (2) the primary groundwater hydro-chemical type takes on apparent horizontal and vertical zoning characteristics, and the TDS of the groundwater evidently increases along the direction of groundwater flow, driven by hydrodynamic processes; (3) the streams, wetland and terminal lakes are the end-points of the local and regional groundwater flow systems. This work indicates that not only are groundwater and river water derived from the same source, but also hydrodynamic and hydro-chemical processes and ecological effects, as a whole in arid areas, are controlled by stream–groundwater transformation.     

Assessment of hazards and economic losses induced by land subsidence in Tianjin Binhai new area from 2011 to 2020 based on scenario analysis

Land subsidence, a major geological hazard in Tianjin, has caused serious losses. In this research, we established a numerical model to predict potential land subsidence caused by groundwater overdraft in the next decades. The model set three groundwater extraction scenarios, corresponding to (1) current rate, (2) 2 % decrease, and (3) South-to-North Water Transfer Project. Economic losses induced by land subsidence were calculated based on the three land subsidence scenarios. The results showed that with a better management plan (e.g., 2 % decrease in groundwater extraction) or with the success of the water transfer project, the economic loss could be reduced by 36 % or even 74 %. The results of this research provide a scientific basis for the sustainable development planning as well as disaster prevention policy-making of Tianjin Binhai New Area.     

Interactions of artificial lakes with groundwater applying an integrated MODFLOW solution

Artificial lakes (reservoirs) are regulated water bodies with large stage fluctuations and different interactions with groundwater compared with natural lakes. A novel modelling study characterizing the dynamics of these interactions is presented for artificial Lake Turawa, Poland. The integrated surface-water/groundwater MODFLOW-NWT transient model, applying SFR7, UZF1 and LAK7 packages to account for variably-saturated flow and temporally variable lake area extent and volume, was calibrated throughout 5 years (1-year warm-up, 4-year simulation), applying daily lake stages, heads and discharges as control variables. The water budget results showed that, in contrast to natural lakes, the reservoir interactions with groundwater were primarily dependent on the balance between lake inflow and regulated outflow, while influences of precipitation and evapotranspiration played secondary roles. Also, the spatio-temporal lakebed-seepage pattern was different compared with natural lakes. The large and fast-changing stages had large influence on lakebed-seepage and water table depth and also influenced groundwater evapotranspiration and groundwater exfiltration, as their maxima coincided not with rainfall peaks but with highest stages. The mean lakebed-seepage ranged from ~0.6 mm day^?1 during lowest stages (lake-water gain) to ~1.0 mm day^?1 during highest stages (lake-water loss) with largest losses up to 4.6 mm day^?1 in the peripheral zone. The lakebed-seepage of this study was generally low because of low lakebed leakance (0.0007–0.0015 day^?1) and prevailing upward regional groundwater flow moderating it. This study discloses the complexity of artificial lake interactions with groundwater, while the proposed front-line modelling methodology can be applied to any reservoir, and also to natural lake interactions with groundwater.     

基于熵权与GIS耦合的DRASTIC地下水脆弱性模糊优选评价

地下水脆弱性评价与编图是保护地下水环境工作的基础,DRASTIC模型是目前国际上最普遍应用的地下水脆弱性评价方法。在利用GIS进行地下水脆弱性评价的基础上,引进基于熵权的模糊优选评价方法,构建了基于熵权与GIS耦合的DRASTIC地下水脆弱性模糊优选评价模型。将该模型应用于黄水河流域,计算出了各评价参数的熵权和各叠加分区基于熵权的隶属度,据此将地下水脆弱性划分为高、中、低3个等级。结果表明,评价过程中避免了人为因素的干扰,更能真实地反映客观情况,为地下水脆弱性的评价提供新的思路和方法。     

Estimation of groundwater recharge using a GIS-based distributed water balance model in Dire Dawa, Ethiopia

Sustainable groundwater management requires knowledge of recharge. Recharge is also an important parameter in groundwater flow and transport models. Spatial variation in recharge due to distributed land-us.e, soil texture, topography, groundwater level, and hydrometeorological conditions should be accounted for in recharge estimation. However, conventional point-estimates of recharge are not easily extrapolated or regionalized. In this study, a spatially distributed water balance model WetSpass was used to simulate long-term average recharge using land-use, soil texture, topography, and hydrometeorological parameters in Dire Dawa, a semiarid region of Ethiopia. WetSpass is a physically based methodology for estimation of the long-term average spatial distribution of surface runoff, actual evapotranspiration, and groundwater recharge. The long-term temporal and spatial average annual rainfall of 626 mm was distributed as: surface runoff of 126 mm (20%), evapotranspiration of 468 mm (75%), and recharge of 28 mm (5%). This recharge corresponds to 817 l/s for the 920.12 km² study area, which is less than the often-assumed 1,000 l/s recharge for the Dire Dawa groundwater catchment.     

Estimation of groundwater recharge in a major sand and gravel aquifer in Ireland using multiple approaches

Groundwater recharge was investigated in the most extensive sand and gravel aquifer (area of approximately 200 km²) in the Republic of Ireland as part of a wider study seeking to derive recharge estimates using aquifer vulnerability mapping. The proportion of effective rainfall (total rainfall minus actual evapotranspiration) that leads to recharge is known as the recharge coefficient. The recharge investigation involved a variety of approaches, including soil moisture budgeting, well hydrograph analysis, numerical modelling and a catchment water balance. The adoption of multiple techniques provided insights on recharge and also on aquifer properties. Comparison of two soil moisture budgeting approaches (FAO Penman-Monteith with Penman-Grindley) showed how variations in the effective rainfall values from these methods influence groundwater levels simulated in a numerical groundwater model. The catchment water balance estimated the recharge coefficient to be between 81 and 85%, which is considered a reasonable range for this aquifer, where overland flow is rarely observed. The well hydrograph analysis, using a previous estimate of specific yield (0.13), gave recharge coefficients in the range of 40–80%, considered low for this aquifer: a revised specific yield of 0.19 resulted in a more reasonable range of recharge coefficients of between 70 and 100%.     

Hydrogeology of a montane headwater groundwater system downgradient of a coal-mine waste rock dump: Elk Valley,British Columbia,Canada

Steelmaking-coal waste rock placed in mountain catchments in the Elk Valley, British Columbia, Canada, drain constituents of interest (CIs) to surface water downgradient of the waste rock dumps. The role of groundwater in transporting CIs in the headwaters of mountain catchments is not well understood. This study characterizes the physical hydrogeology of a portion of a 10-km² headwater catchment (West Line Creek) downgradient of a 2.7-km² waste rock dump placed over a natural headwater valley-bottom groundwater system. The study site was instrumented with 13 monitoring wells. Drill core samples were collected to determine subsurface lithology and geotechnical properties. The groundwater system was characterized using field testing and water-level monitoring. The valley-bottom sediments were composed of unconsolidated glacial and meltwater successions (<64 m thick) deposited as a series of cut and fill structures overlying shale bedrock. An unconfined basal alluvial aquifer located above fractured bedrock was identified as the primary conduit for groundwater flow toward Line Creek (650 m from the toe of the dump). Discharge through the basal alluvial aquifer was estimated using the geometric mean hydraulic conductivity (±1 standard deviation). These calculations suggest groundwater discharge could account for approximately 15% (ranging from 2 to 60%) of the total water discharged from the watershed. The residence time from the base of the waste rock dump to Line Creek was estimated at <3 years. The groundwater system was defined as a snowmelt (i.e., nival) regime dominated by direct recharge (percolation of precipitation) across the catchment.     

Groundwater resources in the Jabal Al Hass region,northwest Syria: an assessment of past use and future potential

In many cases, the development of groundwater resources to boost agricultural production in dry areas has led to a continuous decline in groundwater levels; this has called into question the sustainability of such exploitation. In developing countries, limited budgets and scarce hydrological data often do not allow groundwater resources to be assessed through groundwater modeling. A case study is presented of a low-cost water-balance approach to groundwater resource assessments in a 1,550 km² semi-arid region in northwestern Syria. The past development of irrigated agriculture and its effect on the groundwater system were studied by analysis of Landsat images and long-term groundwater level changes, respectively. All components of the groundwater balance were determined. Groundwater recharge was estimated using the chloride mass balance method. Over the past three decades, groundwater levels have declined, on average, 23 m, coinciding with a two-fold increase in the groundwater-irrigated area. Groundwater resources are currently depleted by a value that lies between 9.5×10⁶ and 118×10⁶ m³ year^?1, which is larger than can be compensated for by a future decrease in natural discharge or changes in boundary conditions. However, groundwater resources are likely to be sufficient to supply domestic and livestock needs in the area.     

Response of vegetation pattern to different landform and water-table depth in Hailiutu River basin,Northwestern China

The spatial distribution of vegetation pattern and vegetation cover fraction (VCF) was quantified with remote sensing data in the Hailiutu River basin, a semiarid area in North China. The moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer normalized different vegetation index (NDVI) values for 4 years from 2008 to 2011 and field observation data were used to assess the impact of climate factors, landform and depth to water table on vegetation distribution at large scale. In the VCF map, 74 % of the study area is covered with low and low–medium density vegetation, 24 % of the catchment is occupied by medium–high and high-density vegetation, and 2 % of area is bare soil. The relationship between NDVI and climate factors indicated that NDVI is correlated with relative humidity and precipitation. In the river catchment, NDVI increases gradually from landform of sand dune, eolian sand soil to river valley; 92.4 % of low NDVI from 0.15 to 0.3 is mostly distributed in sand dunes and the vegetation type is shrubs. Crops, shrubs and some dry willows dominate in eolian sand soil and 82.5 % of the NDVI varies between 0.2 and 0.35. In the river valley, 70.4 % of NDVI ranges between 0.25 and 0.4, and grass, dry willow and some crops are the main plants. Shrubs development of Korshinsk peashrub and Salix psammophila are dependent on groundwater by analyzing NDVI response to groundwater depth. However, NDVI of Artemisia desertorum had little sensitivity to groundwater.     

Induced recharge at new dam sites—Sana’a Basin, Yemen

In approaching the task of developing recharge estimates for dam sites, several constraints are apparent, including the scarcity of site-specific data for the selected new sites and the availability of simple yet robust analysis techniques. Combined, these constraints require an approach which involves best use of available data, adoption of relatively simple analytical approximations of reality, and the adoption of several key assumptions. In arid country with limited resources, two simple techniques have been used for recharge estimation: (1) a simple water balance model in spreadsheet and (2) a more refined Darcian approach involving an analytical approximation of a flow-net solution. By applying the two models at three new dam sites, the amount of recharge rates calculated over the period 2007–2026 was close. This is because, despite Darcian approach that should have affected the recharge rate as other parameters were introduced in the calculation of q _t , e.g., groundwater table mound, reservoir water height, etc., the results show general agreement between the two methods which seem to validate the assumptions made in both methods. A general conclusion of this comparison is that the hydraulic conductivity (K) is the main determining factor in recharge calculations in these situations. The water balance model was used to estimate recharge at Wadi Bahaman, under gravity and cascade dams’ scenarios. Using gravity dam at Wadi Bahaman for groundwater recharge proved not suitable based on the relatively small predicted runoff from a small catchment area and geological concerns in the abutment areas. Instead, a series of three low check dams (2 to 4 m high) was proposed. These check dams will slow down the runoff flow, form small reservoirs, and enhance recharge along the valley, without requiring expensive foundations. Estimated groundwater recharge under cascade dams (141,407 m³/year) is greater than recharge estimated for gravity dam (103,853 m³/year) by at least 36%.     

Improving assessment of groundwater-resource sustainability with deterministic modelling: a case study of the semi-arid Musi sub-basin, South India

Since the 1990s, Indian farmers, supported by the government, have partially shifted from surface-water to groundwater irrigation in response to the uncertainty in surface-water availability. Water-management authorities only slowly began to consider sustainable use of groundwater resources as a prime concern. Now, a reliable integration of groundwater resources for water-allocation planning is needed to prevent aquifer overexploitation. Within the 11,000-km² Musi River sub-basin (South India), human interventions have dramatically impacted the hard-rock aquifers, with a water-table drop of 0.18 m/a over the period 1989–2004. A fully distributed numerical groundwater model was successfully implemented at catchment scale. The model allowed two distinct conceptualizations of groundwater availability to be quantified: one that was linked to easily quantified fluxes, and one that was more expressive of long-term sustainability by taking account of all sources and sinks. Simulations showed that the latter implied 13 % less available groundwater for exploitation than did the former. In turn, this has major implications for the existing water-allocation modelling framework used to guide decision makers and water-resources managers worldwide.     

Effects of climate change on the groundwater system in the Grote-Nete catchment,Belgium

The effects of climate change on the groundwater systems in the Grote-Nete catchment, Belgium, covering an area of 525 km², is modeled using wet (greenhouse), cold or NATCC (North Atlantic Thermohaline Circulation Change) and dry climate scenarios. Low, central and high estimates of temperature changes are adopted for wet scenarios. Seasonal and annual water balance components including groundwater recharge are simulated using the WetSpass model, while mean annual groundwater elevations and discharge are simulated with a steady-state MODFLOW groundwater model. WetSpass results for the wet scenarios show that wet winters and drier summers are expected relative to the present situation. MODFLOW results for wet high scenario show groundwater levels increase by as much as 79 cm, which could affect the distribution and species richness of meadows. Results obtained for cold scenarios depict drier winters and wetter summers relative to the present. The dry scenarios predict dry conditions for the whole year. There is no recharge during the summer, which is mainly attributed to high evapotranspiration rates by forests and low precipitation. Average annual groundwater levels drop by 0.5 m, with maximum of 3.1 m on the eastern part of the Campine Plateau. This could endanger aquatic ecosystem, shrubs, and crop production.