Engineering Ground Motion Modeling in the Near-Source Regime Using the Specific Barrier Model for Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis

—The specific barrier model is used for the first time to simulate ground motion accelerations for the purpose of probabilistic seismic hazard analyses at sites near a dominant fault system. It incorporates the simulation of fault geometry and the relationship between the stress drop and seismic moment to estimate the number of cracks on the fault for the specific barrier model. Radiated direct shear waves are established following Boore’s (1983) procedure. The simulated peak ground accelerations (PGA) are then calibrated by strong-motion data. Basically, the model is of uniform source, and the directivity of the source is not taken into consideration. The results show that the calibrated PGA values are not sensitive to the relationship between the stress drop and seismic moment. However, the calibrated PGA values may increase about 20 percent for sites near the fault when the cut-off frequency,?f _max?, is raised from 5 Hz to 10 Hz. The variability of the simulated ground motion is, in general, smaller than that of the empirical strong-motion data shown in the literature. This may be improved by adding randomness into the parameter of ?f _max and uncertainties into the empirical relationships adopted in the model. The simulated attenuation curves may be used to judge which types of conventional attenuation equations are better at representing the attenuation of PGA for sites near the fault, especially for large earthquake events.     

华北地区地震危险性分析和地面运动预测的一致性方法

利用华北地区地震活动性资料,建立了地震危险性计算的一致性模型.在此模型的基础上,得出了北京、天津、唐山和济南等7个城市未来2500年内地震的时空强度分布,并计算了2500年回复周期的地震动峰值加速度(PGA).结果表明,唐山和太原的PGA最大(>0.2g),石家庄和北京次之(≈0.17g).对华北地区2500年地震记录的正演计算结果表明,太原和唐山地区的潜在地震危险最有可能来源于震级在6.0～7.0、震中距离在12～15km的地震活动;而北京、天津和石家庄地区则可能来源于震级在5.5～6.0、震中距离在10km左右的地震活动.采用IBC(International Building Code)方法计算后的结果显示,太原、唐山等地区的PGA与2001年我国地震动峰值加速度值基本一致,与此地区的较高地震活动性特征相符.利用随机震源模型,还给出了影响此7个城市的最大地震记录的加速度、速度及位移时程曲线,这对本区工程建筑的抗震性设计以及对救援设施的选址等有重要作用.     

为新区划图编制所建立的地震动衰减关系

介绍了建立新一代地震区划图所采用的地震动参数衰减关系的总体思路,并从资料、衰减关系分区、衰减关系模型、回归方法、转换等方面说明了地震动参数衰减关系的建立过程,给出了我国分区地震烈度和地震动参数衰减关系结果。新的地震动衰减关系的建立,具有如下特点:一是基于更加丰富可靠的强震记录和烈度资料;二是采用了具有大震近场饱和特征的地震动衰减模型;三是采用了使结果更加稳定的分步回归方法;四是在地震动衰减关系分区时考虑了地震活动性特征。与第四代地震区划图衰减关系相比,由于地震动衰减模型的变化和高震级强震记录的增加,高震级下的峰值加速度有所降低,而中强地震区的峰值加速度则在低震级时有所提高。     

Realistic Modeling of Seismic Wave Ground Motion in Beijing City

— Algorithms for the calculation of synthetic seismograms in laterally heterogeneous anelastic media have been applied to model the ground motion in Beijing City. The synthetic signals are compared with the few available seismic recordings (1998, Zhangbei earthquake) and with the distribution of observed macroseismic intensity (1976, Tangshan earthquake). The synthetic three-component seismograms have been computed for the Xiji area and Beijing City. The numerical results show that the thick Tertiary and Quaternary sediments are responsible for the severe amplification of the seismic ground motion. Such a result is well correlated with the abnormally high macroseismic intensity zone in the Xiji area associated with the 1976 Tangshan earthquake as well as with the ground motion recorded in Beijing city in the wake of the 1998 Zhangbei earthquake.     

Site Specific Ground Motion Modeling and Seismic Response Analysis for Microzonation of Baku,Azerbaijan

We investigated ground response for Baku (Azerbaijan) from two earthquakes of magnitude M6.3 occurred in Caspian Sea (characterized as a near event) and M7.5 in Shamakhi (characterized as a remote extreme event). S-wave velocity with the average shear wave velocity over the topmost 30 m of soil is obtained by experimental method from the V _P values measured for the soils. The downtown part of Baku city is characterized by low V_S30 values (< 250 m/s), related to sand, water-saturated sand, gravel-pebble, and limestone with clay. High surface PGA of 240 gal for the M7.5 event and of about 190 gal for the M6.3 event, and hence a high ground motion amplification, is observed in the shoreline area, through downtown, in the north-west, and in the east parts of Baku city with soft clays, loamy sands, gravel, sediments.     

Seismic Hazard and Ground Motion Characterization at the Itoiz Dam (Northern Spain)

This paper presents a new hazard-consistent ground motion characterization of the Itoiz dam site, located in Northern Spain. Firstly, we propose a methodology with different approximation levels to the expected ground motion at the dam site. Secondly, we apply this methodology taking into account the particular characteristics of the site and of the dam. Hazard calculations were performed following the Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment method using a logic tree, which accounts for different seismic source zonings and different ground-motion attenuation relationships. The study was done in terms of peak ground acceleration and several spectral accelerations of periods coinciding with the fundamental vibration periods of the dam. In order to estimate these ground motions we consider two different dam conditions: when the dam is empty (T?=?0.1?s) and when it is filled with water to its maximum capacity (T?=?0.22?s). Additionally, seismic hazard analysis is done for two return periods: 975?years, related to the project earthquake, and 4,975?years, identified with an extreme event. Soil conditions were also taken into account at the site of the dam. Through the proposed methodology we deal with different forms of characterizing ground motion at the study site. In a first step, we obtain the uniform hazard response spectra for the two return periods. In a second step, a disaggregation analysis is done in order to obtain the controlling earthquakes that can affect the dam. Subsequently, we characterize the ground motion at the dam site in terms of specific response spectra for target motions defined by the expected values SA (T) of T?=?0.1 and 0.22?s for the return periods of 975 and 4,975?years, respectively. Finally, synthetic acceleration time histories for earthquake events matching the controlling parameters are generated using the discrete wave-number method and subsequently analyzed. Because of the short relative distances between the controlling earthquakes and the dam site we considered finite sources in these computations. We conclude that directivity effects should be taken into account as an important variable in this kind of studies for ground motion characteristics.     

Seismic Ground Motion in Napoli for the 1980 Irpinia Earthquake

— The seismic ground motion in the urban area of Napoli has been computed for the 1980 earthquake (M_s = 6.9) with a hybrid technique based on the mode summation and the finite difference methods. The detailed geological setting of each quarter has been reconstructed from several stratigraphies and six geological zones have been recognized. Shear-wave velocity profiles have been assigned, based on hole tests and inversion of Rayleigh group velocities artificially generated. Realistic SH and P-SV wave seismograms have been computed along the representative cross sections of each zone, by assuming selected velocity profiles. Spectral amplifications of 2–4 have been computed at frequencies roughly corresponding to the eigenfrequencies of the most damaged buildings. Moreover, following the intensity-PGA correlations found for the Italian territory, the predicted peak ground accelerations, 0.04–0.10 g correspond to the intensity range VII-VIII on the MCS scale, in agreement with the observed data.     

考虑强地面运动持时影响的概率地震需求模型

选择合理的持时衰减关系,利用Monte-Carlo方法,抽取持时样本,根据震级M、震中距R和局部场地土壤条件S以及持时样本,选择符合条件的实际地震波记录,并进行合理的调值,对一座钢筋混凝土桥墩进行了非线性动力时程分析.对比强地面运动持时与能量需求参数和累积破坏参数的相关性,发现:幅值、频谱和持时对能量需求参数和累积破坏参数的影响是强烈耦合的,且强地面运动持时对两者的影响比较显著;在选择结构第一模态周期谱加速度和合理的能量需求参数,并分别作为地面运动强度参数IM和EDP建立概率地震需求模型时,要考虑持时的影响.     

Seismic Zonation of the Delhi Region for Bedrock Ground Motion

An endeavor is made to compute peak ground horizontal accelerations at bedrock level in the Delhi region due to the seismogenic sources present around Delhi. The entire area is divided into six seismogenic sources for which seismic hazard analysis is carried out using the complete and extreme part of the seismicity data. Maximum likelihood estimates of hazard parameters viz., seismic activity rate , b value and maximum probable earthquake M _max are made for each zone. The return periods and the probabilities of occurrence of various magnitudes for return periods of 50, 100 and 1000 years are also computed for each zone. The peak ground acceleration (PGA) values for 20% exceedance in 50 years are then computed for the Delhi region from each zone. The maximum PGA value considering all the zones is 0.34 g, which is due to the Mathura fault zone. The seismogenic zones V and VI, i.e., Mathura fault zone and the Sohna fault zone are observed to be contributing maximum PGA values in the Delhi region governing the isoacceleration contours computed for the region. The seismic zonation map for the PGA values at the bedrock level is obtained for the Delhi region. This can be used directly as input for the microzonation of ground motion at the surface by incorporating the local site conditions.     

CyberShake: A Physics-Based Seismic Hazard Model for Southern California

CyberShake, as part of the Southern California Earthquake Center??s (SCEC) Community Modeling Environment, is developing a methodology that explicitly incorporates deterministic source and wave propagation effects within seismic hazard calculations through the use of physics-based 3D ground motion simulations. To calculate a waveform-based seismic hazard estimate for a site of interest, we begin with Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, Version 2.0 (UCERF2.0) and identify all ruptures within 200?km of the site of interest. We convert the UCERF2.0 rupture definition into multiple rupture variations with differing hypocenter locations and slip distributions, resulting in about 415,000 rupture variations per site. Strain Green Tensors are calculated for the site of interest using the SCEC Community Velocity Model, Version 4 (CVM4), and then, using reciprocity, we calculate synthetic seismograms for each rupture variation. Peak intensity measures are then extracted from these synthetics and combined with the original rupture probabilities to produce probabilistic seismic hazard curves for the site. Being explicitly site-based, CyberShake directly samples the ground motion variability at that site over many earthquake cycles (i.e., rupture scenarios) and alleviates the need for the ergodic assumption that is implicitly included in traditional empirically based calculations. Thus far, we have simulated ruptures at over 200 sites in the Los Angeles region for ground shaking periods of 2?s and longer, providing the basis for the first generation CyberShake hazard maps. Our results indicate that the combination of rupture directivity and basin response effects can lead to an increase in the hazard level for some sites, relative to that given by a conventional Ground Motion Prediction Equation (GMPE). Additionally, and perhaps more importantly, we find that the physics-based hazard results are much more sensitive to the assumed magnitude-area relations and magnitude uncertainty estimates used in the definition of the ruptures than is found in the traditional GMPE approach. This reinforces the need for continued development of a better understanding of earthquake source characterization and the constitutive relations that govern the earthquake rupture process.     

Seismic Ground Motion Zoning Maps of the Pangxi Region

The seismotectonic environment and seismic activity in Southwest China region were studied based on new data and new results obtained during the Eighth and Ninth Five-Year Plans,the seismic areas and zones and potential seismic source zones were determined.and the relation between seismic activity parameters and ground motion attenuation was determined.Finally the seismic gound motion zoning maps of the Pangxi region was compiled by using the multi-parameter and multi-scheme method.     

Site-specific Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Map of Himachal Pradesh,India. Part I. Site-specific Ground Motion Relations

This article presents four regional site-specific ground motion relations developed for the state of Himachal Pradesh in northwest Himalaya, situated in a seismically active region. These relations are developed from synthetic free surface ground motion databases obtained from a calibrated stochastic seismological model considering the characteristic properties of this specific region. The adopted methodology incorporates the site effects characterised through active MASW tests conducted in 22 important cities. The estimated ground motion levels from the developed relations are found to be in reasonable agreement with the recorded data.     

湖南地区分布式地震活动性模型在PSHA中的应用研究

本文采用了空间光滑地震活动性模型,该模型无需潜在震源区划分,同时发展了概率地震危险性分析新方法。根据三种地震目录资料建立了三种地震活动性模型,利用高斯光滑函数获得了湖南区域内的比值分布特征,使用了两种典型的衰减模型,计算了50年内超越概率10％的地震动峰值加速度（PGA）分布。其分析结果显示PGA分布特征与中国地震动参数区划图大体一致,部分区域PGA提高,PGA达0．05g的区域显著扩大,其中包括邵阳、湘潭、吉首、怀化等重要城市,而这种PGA分布特征与该地区地震活动性特征是一致的。概率危险性曲线的结果表明常德等地区的潜在地震危险性比湖南区域内其他城市高。表明此模型用于地震危险性计算中是简便易行的,且具有较高的精度。尤其对于地质和地震构造信息缺乏的弱震区和中强震区,该方法作为替代方法并有着广泛的应用价值。     

Modeling of Ground Motion at Napoli for the 1688 Scenario Earthquake

The Sannio seismogenic area turns out to be responsible for the highest peak ground accelerations (PGA) and seismic response spectra (SRS) at Napoli. The 1688 earthquake is considered representative of the area, and realistic synthetic seismograms have been computed for this scenario earthquake at the historical center and the eastern sector of Napoli. The use of a hybrid technique based on mode summation and finite-difference methods is fully justified by the available detailed knowledge about the geological and geophysical properties of the Neapolitan subsoil. This modeling makes it possible to recognize that amplifications of ~2 for PGA and >3 for SRS are to be expected because of the pyroclastic soil cover. Based on the information contained in the available catalogs, different magnitudes have been considered. Taking into account the correlation, valid for the Italian territory, between synthetic PGA and observed intensities, it turns out that the most probable magnitude (M) of the 1688 earthquake is 6.7, while M?=?7.3 should be assigned to a conservative scenario earthquake. Comparison of the computed response spectra for the 1688 scenario earthquake with the Italian seismic building code shows that the code is adequate with respect to the expected effects at the historical center of Napoli, but that it underestimates the possible ground motion at the eastern sector, in particular at the newly developed area built after the 1980 earthquake.     

"Parametric-historic" Procedure for Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis Part II: Assessment of Seismic Hazard at Specified Site

—A new methodology for probabilistic seismic hazard analysis is described. The approach combines the best features of the "deductive" (Cornell, 1968) and "historic" (Veneziano et al., 1984) procedures. It can be called a "parametric-historic" procedure. The maximum regional magnitude mmax is of paramount importance in this approach and Part I of the authors’ work (Kijko and Graham, 1998) was dedicated to developing efficient statistical procedures that can be used for the evaluation of this parameter. In Part II the approach of a probabilistic seismic hazard assessment at a given site is described. The approach permits the utilization of incomplete earthquake catalogues. It is assumed that a typical catalogue contains two types of information historical macroseismic events that occurred over a period of a few hundred years and recent, instrumental data. The historical part of the catalogue contains only the strongest events, whereas the complete part can be divided into several subcatalogues, each assumed complete above a specified threshold of magnitude. The author’s approach also takes into account uncertainty in the determination of the earthquake magnitude. The technique has been developed specifically for the estimation of seismic hazard at individual sites, without the subjective judgment involved in the definition of seismic source zones, in which specific active faults have not been mapped and identified, and where the causes of seismicity are not well understood. As an example of the application of the new technique, the results of a typical hazard analysis for a hypothetical engineering structure located in the territory of South Africa are presented. It was assumed that the only reliable information in the assessment of the seismic hazard parameters in the vicinity of the selected site comes from a knowledge of past seismicity. The procedure was applied to seismic data that were divided into an incomplete part, containing only the largest events, and two complete parts, containing information obtained from instruments. The simulation experiments described in Part I of our study have shown that the Bayesian estimator K-S-B tends to perform very well, especially in the presence of inevitable deviations from the simple Gutenberg–Richter model. In the light of this fact value &gif1; = 6.66 - 0.44, which was obtained from the K-S-B technique, was regarded as the best choice. At an exceedance probability of 10^х per annum, the median value of peak ground acceleration on rock at the site is 0.31g, and at an exceedance probability of 10^ц per annum, the median peak ground acceleration at the site is 0.39g. The median value of the maximum possible acceleration at the site is 0.40g, which was calculated from attenuation formulae by assuming the occurrence of the strongest possible earthquake, e.g., with magnitude &gif1; = 6.66 at distance 10 km.     

地震危险性概率分析方法:存在的问题和纠正

地震危险性概率分析(PSHA)是目前最广泛应用于地震灾害与风险性评估的方法。然而它在计算中却存在着一个错误:把强地面运动衰减关系(一个函数)的条件超越概率等同于强地面运动误差(一个变量)的超越概率。这个错误导致了运用强地面运动误差(空间分布特征)去外推强地面运动的发生(时间分布特征)或称之为遍历性假设,同时也造成了对PSHA理解和应用上的困难。本文推导出新的灾害计算方法(称之为KY-PSHA)来纠正这种错误。     

地震动参数在建筑物抗震设计中的应用

传统考虑后期使用年限的地震动参数研究,在建筑物抗震设计中的应用,缺乏地震危险性分析和建筑物损伤指数分析,应用性差。提出新的地震动参数在建筑物抗震设计中的应用方法,以地震危险性分析为基础,通过水平地震动加速度衰减关系方程,求得建筑场地水平向基岩峰值加速度和反应谱,以此得到地震动加速度反应谱方程,利用该方程获得地震动反应谱参数,采用变形和线性组合构建损伤指数模型,获取地震波作用下地震动参数对建筑物损伤程度。实验结果表明,利用所提方法得到的地震动反应谱最小误差为0.563,小于允许误差4.0;在50年超越概率63%的条件下地震动参数值分别为0.26、0.095,所提方法可在规定误差范围内得到地震动反应谱参数值,其进行建筑物抗震设计精度和应用性高。     

预防原则在地震危险性分析中的应用

在环境领域 ,近来提倡将预防原则作为决策的指导原则。然而 ,关于预防原则的陈述却是各不相同的 ,所以本文的首要任务是对之提出一个令人满意的定义。起因是 1 998年在威斯康星拉辛召开的 Winspread大会的公告。该公告的中心意思是 :“当某种活动增加了有损人类健康或环境的可能性时 ,即使不能从科学上完全确定其因果关系 ,也应采取预防措施。从这个意义上说 ,活动的倡导者而不是大众应承担起验证的责任。”在此 ,我想重申一下地震危险性分析中的预防原则 :“凡是有可能发生危害人类安全和建筑环境 ( builtenvironment)的地震的地方 ,都应…