县域尺度下中国人口老龄化的空间格局与区域差异

2000年以来,中国的老龄化进程加快,人口老龄化已经成为中国社会经济发展必须面对的新常态与核心问题之一。本文从县域尺度出发,基于2000和2010年的人口普查数据,应用标准差椭圆、地理探测器等方法,分析了10年间中国2283个县域单元人口老龄化的空间分布、区域差异及其影响因素。结果表明：①人口老龄化空间分布模式多样,胡焕庸线西北半壁以均质化、轴带特征为主;而胡焕庸线东南半壁则呈现出核心—外围的分布特征。②2000-2010年间,人口老龄化均值从6.7%增至8.7%,表明中国县域全面进入老年型社会,步入老年型的县域多集中于内陆、东北地区、丝绸之路经济带沿线区;10年间人口老龄化总体空间格局较为稳定,但人口老龄化的变动趋势差异显著。③人口老龄化在“胡焕庸线”两侧、不同地域类型间、城乡间、民族自治地区与非民族自治地区间、贫困与非贫困地区间存在差异,且差异变动的方向并不一致。④影响人口老龄化的核心因素为各区域往期人口年龄结构、步入老年序列人口比重、人口流出的比例等。     

The Demographic Constraints on Future Population Growth in Regional Australia

Concern about rapid population growth in Australia's large cities and slower growth in many non-metropolitan areas has stimulated a range of government policies attempting to lift non-metropolitan growth rates. However, there is relatively little research on which to base these policies. It would be helpful to understand more about the consequences of current demographic trends continuing and the effects of alternative migration patterns. This paper presents sub-national population projections for Australia over the horizon 2011–2041, basing the projections on more socially meaningful Remoteness Areas instead of common statistical geographies. Three sets of projections were generated: a Current Direction scenario in which recent demographic trends are maintained, a Regional Immigration scenario in which more immigrants settle in regional and remote areas, and a Metro Exodus scenario in which there is increased internal migration from metropolitan to non-metropolitan areas. The future of Australia's population geography is shown to be one of spatially varying growth and population ageing, and continued metropolitanisation. In regional areas rapid population ageing will lower natural increase rates and thus reduce overall growth, resulting in a falling share of the national population. Policy measures attempting to increase the share of growth in regional areas will struggle against natural demographic forces operating in the opposite direction.     

对就地养老的反思——“人”与“地方”关系视角①

在有关养老的老年学和地理学研究中,“就地养老”是一个广泛使用的概念,并一直被认为是解决老龄人口养老需求的有效政策手段。迄今为止,关于就地养老的研究主要关注了很多能够让老年人健康就地(或在家)养老的物质方面的因素,比如住房条件或家庭照护。有些老年学研究者们认识到,就地养老受到居住环境中实体环境和社会、情感因素的共同影响。但我们认为,在养老体验研究中,要更加深入地审视“人”和“地方”之间的复杂关系。特别是,我们主张就地养老成功的因素是地方具有维持良好关系的潜力。提到“地方(place)”一词的时候,人们过分局限于关注老年人身体上接近的地理空间,或是具有实体边界的地方,例如房子或社区。而我们通过回顾现有文献发现,对许多选择就地养老的人来说,更具有意义的是随着时间的推移,他们在不同空间尺度上所建立起来的多元的、网络化的社会和非社会关系。基于这个新的视角,可以更好地理解老年人与地方的多层次的联系,以及从不同尺度和不同类型的人与地方的关系来考察就地养老的意义。     

我国人口老龄化发展的阶段、趋势和区域差异

分析了我国人口老龄化发展的三个阶段,并预测了它的发展趋势。研究了人口老龄化的地理区域差异,表明在城乡之间、东西部地区之间和各民族地区之间的差异比较明显,而在贫困地区与非贫困地区之间有不同程度的差异。为按照各地区人口老龄化发展的不同特点,因地制宜地解决我国人口老龄化问题提供依据。     

Ageing research in Australia: reflecting on Graeme Hugo’s four decades of contribution

ABSTRACT

Globally, population ageing is one of the most pressing social and policy issues faced today. Over the next two decades, Australian society will face dramatic increases in the proportion of the population aged 65 years and over, as the baby boomers move into older age and fertility levels remain low. Yet population ageing is not a surprising or new trend—demographic changes in the age profile of a population tend to occur incrementally rather than suddenly. As a demographer and geographer, Graeme Hugo drew attention to this trend in Australia’s population more than three decades ago. Throughout Graeme Hugo’s vast breadth of work over the past 40 years, there has been a consistent thread of demographic analysis and academic thought associated with the ageing of Australia’s population. This paper focuses on Hugo’s contributions to academic thought and policy on Australia’s ageing population and the challenges associated with this for both service delivery and health policy as Australian society moves into an unprecedented era of population ageing.     

Variations in Ageing in Home and Ageing in Neighbourhood

This paper takes a new approach to investigating people who age in place. It provides an explanation for why people age in a place that can be useful in government and corporate planning. Our research investigates the principal factors that drive the decision of a rising number of older Australians to age in place. Many older people wish to age in place rather than move in with their children or be institutionalised. They wish to continue to be active in their local communities and maintain their existing social ties. The concept of ageing in place covers two distinct groups: those who are able to stay in their current dwellings and age in home and those who move house but remain in their local community and age in neighbourhood. Age-friendly home modification is a response to ageing in home, whereas the provision of institutional healthcare and the provision of age-suitable housing to facilitate downsizing are associated with ageing in neighbourhood. Using Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) survey data, this research examines the mobility decisions of older Australians and identifies the major determinants of a decision to age in place. This research argues for a better understanding of ageing in place, differentiating between those ageing in home and those ageing in neighbourhood.     

老龄化社会中的地方和非正式照护①——地理老年学最新研究进展

发达国家政策制定者和执行者正面临着一个重要问题,即如何照护身体衰弱的老年群体,以应对人均寿命延长给社会经济与福利带来的影响。当然寿命延长本身是人类取得的一个巨大成功。然而,预期寿命的增加也引发了老年人口尤其是高龄老人数量的增长,这些高龄老人面临疾病高发和工具性日常生活活动能力(Instrumental Activities of Daily Life, IADLs)下降的情况,而这种能力对保持他们晚年生活的独立和尊严非常重要。与此同时,政策和实践的重心已经从机构养老转为“就地养老”,即支持老年人尽可能长时间地住在自己家里。从概念上讲,这意味着之前由机构提供的服务和照护(care)将改为由家庭来提供,这样脆弱的老年人也可以得到来自家人、朋友和邻居的非正式照护。一方面,这意味着许多老年人能够享受到由家庭照护所带来的亲密感、安全感和情感支持;另一方面,家庭结构的变化,社区的衰落,以及经济紧缩时期保障和福利的大幅削减,造成越来越多的老年人要面对孤独、孤立及风险。于是,老年人的照护者、照护地点和照护方式,及老年人对这些因素的差异化体验,将成为对健康和老龄化研究感兴趣的地理学家越来越关心的问题。本文回顾了地理老年学对非正式照护和家庭研究的最新进展,指出该领域的工作对老年人口照护的多学科探讨具有重要贡献。     

Local government perspectives on rural retirement migration and social sustainability

Within the policy and academic literature, the impact of rural retirement migration (RRM) on community sustainability has been questioned. This qualitative study investigated the perceived impact of retirement migration on rural social sustainability from a local government perspective. Focus groups were conducted with local government senior managers and community services staff (n = 39) across six rural local government areas in one Australian state. Data were analysed against the three components of rural social sustainability (equity, community and rurality) proposed by Jones and Tonts [1995. “Rural Restructuring and Social Sustainability: Some Reflections on the Western Australian Wheatbelt.” Australian Geographer 26: 133–140]. While RRM is perceived to benefit rural community capacity to facilitate or maintain equity, community and rurality, it also presents challenges for local government. Participants suggested that capacity to facilitate equity, community and rurality in contexts of RRM was impacted by uncertainty around future impacts of RRM on population ageing, increasing advocacy and expectations of older in-migrants, and the impact of RRM on rural heterogeneity. These issues required local governments to think critically about how to accommodate and manage the needs and expectations of older in-migrants, while mediating potential impacts associated with RRM.     

2010—2020年中国老年人口健康水平空间格局演变及其影响因素

把握中国老年人口健康水平空间演变规律对快速老龄化背景下的健康老龄化战略实施具有重要意义。本文基于第六、七次全国人口普查老年人口自评健康数据,采用探索性空间数据分析和重心—时空地理加权回归模型等方法,刻画2010—2020年中国省域城乡老年人口健康水平空间动态演化过程,揭示社会经济发展、人口流动、环境污染与保护等因素的影响变迁,主要发现：① 2010—2020年间中国老年人口健康水平总体上升,但城乡差异进一步扩大,城镇老年人口健康水平“东—中—西”递减格局趋于强化,乡村老年人口健康水平向“南高北低”转变;② 社会经济发展是影响城乡老年人口健康水平及其空间格局演变的首要因素,但作用趋于减弱,乡城人口流动导致老年人口健康城乡差距进一步扩大;③ 环境本底因素作用减弱,环境污染因素作用增强,环境保护举措在城镇地区呈现健康改善效应。     

基于结构方程模型的中国县域人口老龄化影响机制

利用2000年和2010年分县人口普查数据,分析中国县域人口老龄化的空间格局及变化,采用结构方程模型拟合人口老龄化影响因子之间的路径关系,探讨中国县域人口老龄化的影响机制。结果表明:内蒙古包头至云南腾冲是中国县域人口老龄化较为清晰的空间分界线,其东南部老龄化高值县区连片集中,低值县区夹杂其间;西北全域老龄化率普遍较低,仅在北缘横亘一条中值县区连绵带。结构方程模型的拟合结果很好地解释了中国县域人口老龄化空间差异的影响机制。迁移率、预期寿命和生育率是人口老龄化进程的内生因素,其中,预期寿命对县域人口老龄化有正向效应,迁移率和生育率则对县域人口老龄化有负向效应。社会经济、家庭状况和自然环境等因素是人口老龄化进程的外生因素,对中国县域人口老龄化有显著的直接和间接效应。收入增加、社会发展、居住条件改善以及环境舒适性提高等推高县域人口老龄化水平,城镇化水平提高则降低县域人口老龄化水平。     

老年人移动构成的时空——老龄化地理学中非表征理论的引入①

本文主要介绍了非表征理论及其在老龄化地理学研究中的运用。该理论的引入将使老龄化地理学成为一个重新焕发活力的研究领域。该领域涉及老年人生活中广泛而多样的空间移动与体验,涵盖移动的参与者、时效性和感知等维度,从而更好地表达和反映空间移动的本质特征。     

中国边界县区人口老龄化的时空格局及其影响因素研究

受功能文化区理论和距离衰减定律的影响,中国边界县区凸显出明显的特性,这种“边界效应”深刻影响到老龄化进程。利用2000、2010年分县人口普查数据,统计分析边界县区人口老龄化时空格局,通过空间分析方法和路径分析模型,剖析中国边界县区老龄化进程的影响机理。研究表明：①2000—2010年中国边界县区老龄化率虽低于全国平均水平但增速明显,且集中分布的趋势在相对减弱,空间差异增大,总体上呈现出东南-西北方向较为明显的分异;②热点县区集聚带基本分布于中国东南部,冷点县区集聚带基本分布于中国西北部,且热点县区显示出由东向西扩展、由北向南转移的趋势;③中国边界县区老龄化的直接影响因子为预期寿命、生育率和迁移率。其中预期寿命和生育率对边界县区老龄化有正向效应,迁移率则对边界县区老龄化产生负向效应;且预期寿命影响强度最大,迁移率次之,生育率影响强度最弱;④经济因素、社会因素、家庭因素和自然因素作为外生变量,分别对边界县区老龄化率产生直接和间接的影响。其中正向因子按总效应值依次为人均教育水平、家庭结构、居住条件、人居环境指数、人均GDP和城镇化率,对老龄化率产生促进作用。     

北京城市老年贫困人口识别与空间分布

随着中国老龄化程度加深和城镇化水平的提高,城市地区的老年贫困问题日渐突出。由于缺乏明确的界定和统一的标准,老年贫困人口识别的准确性不足,不同研究的结论存在很大分歧。特别是教育、健康、家庭和社会支持等因素与老年贫困的关联被忽视、贫困线的设定较为主观等问题,对厘定城市老年贫困的空间格局和制定相关政策造成很大困扰。本文通过北京市典型居住社区的实证研究对上述问题进行了探讨,首先基于老年人属性变量的因子分析构建了城市老年贫困的综合判别指标;然后通过贫困线的优化分析,估计不同类型居住社区的老年贫困比例;再以市域范围内的街道和中心城区周边的地区办事处为空间单元,对北京市城市老年贫困的空间格局进行了分析。研究结论为:① 资源、健康、独立性和性别是老年人属性差异的决定因子,其中资源因子得分综合反映了城市老年人的贫困程度。② 不同类型居住社区的城市老年贫困比例存在显著差异,根据居住社区的分布,测得北京城市老年人口的贫困比例为9.55%。③ 城市内部老年贫困的空间格局分析表明:城市老年贫困人口比例从首都功能核心区、城市功能拓展区、城乡结合部地区到外围城区顺次增加;城市老年贫困人口密度则以外围城区与首都功能核心区最高,城市功能拓展区居中,城乡结合部地区最低。这些结果为进一步制定不同地区的老年贫困对策提供了参考依据。     

New Zealanders on the Population Geography of the Western Island

New Zealand origin academics have played a key role in the academic study of Australia's population in the post-war period. The paper argues that New Zealanders have contributed not only to the furthering of knowledge of the processes of change in the Australian population but have been important in the teaching of population geography in Australian universities, made inputs into policy relating to population and been influential in the development of the Australian Population Association. Major contributions have been made by New Zealanders not only in the traditionally strong areas of population geography such as internal and international migration but also in the areas of fertility, mortality and ageing.     

北京市老年人口迁移意愿及影响因素研究

北京正处于快速老龄化阶段,随着城市化进程的加深,迁移老年人的生活环境发生着剧烈的变化。分析北京市城市功能拓展区中老年人的迁移意愿及其影响因素,具有重要的实践意义。选择北京城市功能拓展区中4个新建小区为案例区,收集有效调查问卷353份,采用描述性统计和Logistic回归研究北京市老年人口的迁移意愿及其影响因素。研究发现：已迁移老年人中,71.4%的老年人愿意迁移。与子女居住距离的变化、孙辈的出生以及居住条件的改善是自主迁移老年人迁移的主要原因。老年人生命历程的变化对迁移行为有重要影响。老年人的身体健康、经济条件、与子女居住距离和居住环境对其迁移意愿影响显著。本文的研究意义在于结合老年人迁移的影响因素与宜居社区建设政策,为构建老年宜居社区提供科学依据。     

Attitudes to Diversity: new perspectives on the ethnic geography of Brisbane,Australia

As a consequence of changing immigration policy over the past 50 years, contemporary Australia has a culturally diverse population. Focusing on Brisbane, one of Australia's smaller immigrant-receiving cities but where some 19 per cent of the population is born overseas, this study examines attitudes to and perceptions of culturally different ethnic (non-Anglo) immigrant groups. Emphasis is placed on patterns of tolerance and intolerance for the city as a whole, both in areas of contact and in areas of minimal contact. Findings show that variations in attitudes vary somewhat from commonly accepted socio-economic and age-based correlations (the lower the status or the older people are the less tolerant), depending on the particular mix of ethnic birthplace groups present. They also show levels of intolerance in areas of minimal contact, which is implicitly attributed to mass media influences. In light of these findings, a concluding plea is made for anti-intolerance strategies to be developed for cities that pay regard to the geography of attitude-forming contexts.     

城市老龄化问题研究的时间地理学框架与展望

进入21世纪后，老龄化问题已经成为全世界关注的焦点之一，亦成为多学科研究的对象，通过社会学和地理学对老龄化问题研究视角的对比分析，将时间地理学方法引入对城市老龄化问题的研究中，提出社会学视角与地理学视角相结合的城市老龄化的研究基本框架，展望时间地理学在城市老年服务设施的时间管理和空间管理，老年福利服务以及老年社区建设等方面的应用前景。     

基于“政策-潜力-意愿”整合视角的村庄分类研究

村庄分类作为乡村地区制定差异化发展政策的科学手段,是认识和明晰区域乡村振兴路径的重要抓手。论文基于乡村地域系统演化规律,综合考虑地方主观发展意愿,构建了一套基于“政策-潜力-意愿”整合视角的村庄分类框架,按照“政策影响?发展潜力+在地发展意愿”的逻辑思路逐级识别村庄类型,并以西峰区100个行政村作为案例区进行实证分析。结果表明：(1)通过梳理现有政策文件,识别出54个村庄的类型,这部分村庄特征相对显著;其余部分村庄通过“发展潜力-在地发展意愿”耦合分析,确定其发展类型;(2)村庄发展潜力与在地发展意愿不完全耦合,其中“高潜力-低意愿”及“低潜力-高意愿”各占39.13%和6.52%;(3)西峰区村庄最终分为就地城镇化类、集聚提升类、城郊融合类、特色保护类、整治改善类及搬迁撤并类等六种类型,论文据此提出相应的乡村振兴途径及措施建议。     

Appreciating migration flows for health/social services planning: A case study of older adults leaving from New York to Florida

This paper utilizes the 2009/2010/2011 American Community Survey to examine spatial patterns of later-life relocation from the state of New York into Florida. Given that the first-wave of the Baby Boom generation reached the retirement age of 65 years in January 2011 and many more will continue to do so, examining the mobility/subsequent residential choices of this group is a worthwhile undertaking. This research paper is also a noteworthy contribution because it offers an interdisciplinary study of spatial statistics and population geography. Exploratory spatial analysis and multinomial regressions suggest older adults from New York leave select origins, such as Capital District, Mid-Hudson, and Lower Hudson. In addition, these older adults select preferred destinations in Florida, such as Fort Myers, Fort Pierce–Stuart, and West Palm Beach. This finding can inform planners, policy analysts, and social workers about how to best address issues related to health and community services since not all older adult migrants seeking coastal and recreational areas in Florida maintain greater wealth and better health.     

Poverty, hunger and population policy: linking Cairo with Johannesburg

Attitudes to population policy taken by major international institutions display a lack of symmetry. Population-based institutions forcefully set out the effects of population on development and human welfare. In contrast, institutions and lobbies concerned with hunger, poverty and environment, brought together at the 2003 World Summit on Sustainable Development in Johannesburg, treat population growth as a given, independent, variable. This paper gives a land resources viewpoint. It includes a case study of Malawi and cross-country statistical comparisons. Official estimates of the extent of spare land, cultivable but not presently cultivated, are challenged. It is concluded that in low-income, food-deficit countries population increase has reduced, in some areas nullified, advances in agricultural development. Following the 1994 UN Conference on Population and Development in Cairo, a set of ethically acceptable measures for reducing population growth received general acceptance. All concerned with poverty, hunger and environment should follow the policy road from Cairo to Johannesburg. If greater efforts are not made to reduce rates of population increase, the targets of the Millennium declaration will not be met, and the suffering which these cause will continue. Statements about agriculture, food security, poverty and sustainability should recognize that population is not an external variable but an integral part of development.