Correlation between assessments of undiscovered oil and gas resources

There is an inbuilt correlation between estimated quantities of oil and gas produced by probabilistic assessments of undiscovered oil and gas resources. Correlation between assessed quantities of oil and gas occurs at every level, whether prospects, plays, basins, continents, or the world. Providing that the oil and gas are assessed in the same run of the computer program, the correlation can be calculated using the paired values of the undiscovered oil and gas volumes calculated in each of the Monte Carlo simulations. It can be seen in the shape and density of a point plot of these paired values. Alternatively, the correlation can be calculated theoretically using an equation written in terms of the data input to the assessment program. These commonly include distributions for the number of accumulations (N), the success rate (s), the accumulation sizes (V), an oil to gas conversion factor, and a proportion of oil to oil plus gas (P _OOG). The cause of the correlation is investigated and explained using point plots and equations for a variety of input distributions. The shape and density of each plot are determined by the pattern of the numbers of oil and gas accumulations, the sizes of the accumulations, and the proportions of oil to oil plus gas. The correlation is caused by the dispersion or spread of the input distributions. It may be positive or negative, tending toward positive as the dispersions ofN, s, andV increase and the dispersion ofP _OOG decreases. The correlation indicates that there is a relationship between the undiscovered oil and gas resources that may be described by fitting a linear regression to a plot of the paired values of the total oil and gas resources. The relationship should be quoted as part of the assessment and might be used to make a better estimate of the value of the undiscovered resources.     

The study of the undiscovered mineral resources of the Tongass National Forest and adjacent lands,Southeastern Alaska

The quantitative probabilistic assessment of the undiscovered mineral resources of the 17.1-million-acre Tongass National Forest (the largest in the United States) and its adjacent lands is a nonaggregated, mineral-resource-tract-oriented assessment designed for land-planning purposes. As such, it includes the renewed use of gross-in-place values (GIPV's) in dollars of the estimated amounts of metal contained in the undiscovered resources as a measure for land-use planning.Southeastern Alaska is geologically complex and contains a wide variety of known mineral deposits, some of which have produced important amounts of metals during the past 100 years. Regional geological, economic geological, geochemical, geophysical, and mineral exploration history information for the region was integrated to define 124 tracts likely to contain undiscovered mineral resources. Some tracts were judged to contain more than one type of mineral deposit. Each type of deposit may contain one or more metallic elements of economic interest. For tracts where information was sufficient, the minimum number of as-yet-undiscovered deposits of each type was estimated at probability levels of 0.95, 0.90, 0.50, 0.10, and 0.05.The undiscovered mineral resources of the individual tracts were estimated using the U.S. Geological Survey's MARK3 mineral-resource endowment simulator; those estimates were used to calculate GIPV's for the individual tracts. Those GIPV's were aggregated to estimate the value of the undiscovered mineral resources of southeastern Alaska. The aggregated GIPV of the estimates is $40.9 billion.Analysis of this study indicates that (1) there is only a crude positive correlation between the size of individual tracts and their mean GIPV's: and (2) the number of mineral-deposit types in a tract does not dominate the GIPV's of the tracts, but the inferred presence of synorogenic-synvolcanic nickel-copper, porphyry copper skarn-related, iron skarn, and porphyry copper-molybdenum deposits does. The influence of this study on the U.S. Forest Service planning process is yet to be determined.     

Worldwide Estimates of Deep Natural Gas Resources Based on the U.S. Geological Survey World Petroleum Assessment 2000

The U.S. Geological Survey recently assessed undiscovered conventional gas and oil resources in eight regions of the world outside the U.S. The resources assessed were those estimated to have the potential to be added to reserves within the next thirty years. This study is a worldwide analysis of the estimated volumes and distribution of deep (>4.5 km or about 15,000 ft), undiscovered conventional natural gas resources based on this assessment. Two hundred forty-six assessment units in 128 priority geologic provinces, 96 countries, and two jointly held areas were assessed using a probabilistic Total Petroleum System approach. Priority geologic provinces were selected from a ranking of 937 provinces worldwide. The U.S. Geological Survey World Petroleum Assessment Team did not assess undiscovered petroleum resources in the U.S. For this report, mean estimated volumes of deep conventional undiscovered gas resources in the U.S. are taken from estimates of 101 deep plays (out of a total of 550 conventional plays in the U.S.) from the U.S. Geological Survey's 1995 National Assessment of Oil and Gas Resources. A probabilistic method was designed to subdivide gas resources into depth slices using a median-based triangular probability distribution as a model for drilling depth to estimate the percentages of estimated gas resources below various depths. For both the World Petroleum Assessment 2000 and the 1995 National Assessment of Oil and Gas Resources, minimum, median, and maximum depths were assigned to each assessment unit and play; these depths were used in our analysis. Two-hundred seventy-four deep assessment units and plays in 124 petroleum provinces were identified for the U.S. and the world. These assessment units and plays contain a mean undiscovered conventional gas resource of 844 trillion cubic ft (Tcf) occuring at depths below 4.5 km. The deep undiscovered conventional gas resource (844 Tcf) is about 17% of the total world gas resource (4,928 Tcf) based on the provinces assessed and includes a mean estimate of 259 Tcf of U.S. gas from the U.S. 1995 National Assessment. Of the eight regions, the Former Soviet Union (Region 1) contains the largest estimated volume of undiscovered deep gas with a mean resource of343 Tcf.     

Assessment Methodology and Results From the Canadian Gas Potential Committee 2001 Report

Since 1991 volunteers from the Canadian Gas Potential Committee (CGPC) have conducted assessments of undiscovered gas potential in Canada. Reports were published in 1997 and 2001. The 2001 CGPC report assessed all established and some conceptual exploration plays in Canada and incorporated data from about 29,000 discovered gas pools and gas fields. Mainly year-end 1998 data were used in the analysis of 107 established exploration plays. The CGPC assessed gas in place without using economic cut offs. Estimates of nominal marketable gas were made, based on the ratio between gas in place and marketable gas in discovered pools. Only part of the estimated nominal marketable gas actually will be available, primarily because of restrictions on access to exploration and the small size of many accumulations. Most plays were assessed using the Petrimes program where it could be applied. Arps-Roberts assessments were made on plays where too many discovered pools were present to use the Petrimes program. Arps-Roberts assessments were corrected for economic truncation of the discovered pool sample. Several methods for making such corrections were tried and examples of the results are shown and compared with results from Petrimes. In addition to assessments of established plays, 12 conceptual plays, where no discoveries have been made, were assessed using Petrimes subjective methodology. An additional 65 conceptual plays were recognized, discussed, and ranked without making a quantitative assessment. No nominal marketable gas was attributed to conceptual plays because of the high risk of failure in such plays. Nonconventional gas in the form of coalbed methane, gas hydrates, tight gas, and shale gas are discussed, but no nominal marketable gas is attributed to those sources pending successful completion of pilot study projects designed to demonstrate commercially viable production. Conventional gas resources in Canada include 340 Tcf of gas in place in discovered pools and fields and 252 Tcf of undiscovered gas in place. Remaining nominal marketable gas includes 96 Tcf in discovered pools and fields and 138 Tcf of undiscovered nominal marketable gas. The Western Canada Sedimentary Basin holds 61% of the remaining nominal marketable gas. Future discoveries from that area will be mainly in pools smaller than 2.5 Bcf of marketable gas and increasing levels of exploratory drilling will be required to harvest this undiscovered resource. A pragmatic, geologically focussed approach to the assessment of undiscovered gas potential by the CGPC provides a sound basis for future exploration and development planning. Peer reviewed assessment on a play-by-play basis for entire basins provides both detailed play information and the ability to evaluate new exploration results and their impact on overall potential.     

THE USE OF QUANTITATIVE METHODS IN MAJOR GEOGRAPHICAL JOURNALS, 1956–1986*

Ninety mainstream quantitative methods used in 14 major geographical journals are analyzed for four selected years: 1956, 1966, 1976, and 1986. Mainstream methods are used in 53% of all articles in 1986, as opposed to 3% in 1956. Both the intensity and variety of methods used also increased, particularly in physical and techniques articles compared to human articles. Major methods that dominate the entire period include bivariate correlation and regression, multiple regression, factor analyses, and chi-square. The use of nonparametric methods is increasing, although their frequency of occurrence is still low. Spatial autocorrelation and advanced multiple regression appear to be strong newcomers to the discipline.     

Estimates of Number of Undiscovered Deposits of Gold,Silver, Copper,Lead, and Zinc in the United States

Estimates of the number of undiscovered deposits offer a unique perspective on the nation's undiscovered mineral resources. As part of the 1998 assessment of undiscovered deposits of gold, silver, copper, lead, and zinc, estimates of the number of deposits were made for 305 of the 447 permissive tracts delineated in 19 assessment regions of the country. By aggregating number of undiscovered deposits by deposit type and by assessment region, a picture of the nation's undiscovered resources has emerged. For the nation as a whole, the mean estimate for the number of undiscovered deposits is 950. There is a 90% chance there are at least 747 undiscovered deposits and a 10% chance there are as many as 1,160 undiscovered deposits. For Alaska, the mean estimate for the number of undiscovered deposits is 281. There is a 90% chance there are at least 168 undiscovered deposits and a 10% chance there are as many as 402 undiscovered deposits. Assuming that the majority of deposits used to create the grade and tonnage models that formed the basis for estimating the number of undiscovered deposits are significant deposits, there remain about as many undiscovered deposits as have already been discovered. Consideration of the number of undiscovered deposits as part of national assessments carried out on a recurring basis serves as a leading indicator of the nation's total mineral resources.     

湿地脆弱性评价研究进展

湿地脆弱性评价是近年来湿地科学及可持续性科学领域的热点和前沿.湿地脆弱性评价研究经历了从湿地脆弱性特征定性评价,到湿地脆弱性定量评价,再到气候变化下湿地脆弱性评价的发展历程.首先,在对湿地脆弱性概念归纳总结的基础上,提出湿地脆弱性是在自然环境和人为压力下湿地退化的程度和可能性.其次,定性介绍了水土流失、水热分配不均、湿地退化等主要脆弱性特征表现;并以脆弱性评价的基本步骤为主线论述了模型法、特征法、综合指数法、EFI评价法、空间分析法等主要研究方法;同时,从不同角度概述了气候变化背景下的湿地脆弱性,总结了湿地水文景观分类法、生物完整性指标法、模型法、空间分析等评价方法.最后,指出湿地脆弱性研究中存在的概念不统一、评价标准不一致、评价指标范围较狭窄、动态研究偏少、定量评价的不确定性等主要问题,提出了完善评价体系、加强动态研究和国内对气候变化下湿地脆弱性的定量研究以及不确定性分析、脆弱性评价与决策管理衔接等湿地脆弱性未来研究的重点.     

Geologic risk, economic assessment, and optimal decision making of petroleum plays in the Bohaiwan Basin, northern China

A system of play (trap) assessment based on the analysis of geological characteristics of five different types of petroleum plays in the Bohaiwan Basin, northern China, is proposed. The system makes use of conditional probability, fuzzy logic, and Monte Carlo simulation to assess geologic risk for estimating the undiscovered petroleum resources in a region. Combining the estimates of undiscovered resources with the subsequent economic evaluation of discovered resources by using techniques of optimization, the expected monetary value can be estimated to determine the overall benefits of an investment. A software program has been developed to carry out the calculations.     

Guiding Principles of USGS Methodology for Assessment of Undiscovered Conventional Oil and Gas Resources

During the last 30 years, the methodology for assessment of undiscovered conventional oil and gas resources used by the Geological Survey has undergone considerable change. This evolution has been based on five major principles. First, the U.S. Geological Survey has responsibility for a wide range of U.S. and world assessments and requires a robust methodology suitable for immaturely explored as well as maturely explored areas. Second, the assessments should be based on as comprehensive a set of geological and exploration history data as possible. Third, the perils of methods that solely use statistical methods without geological analysis are recognized. Fourth, the methodology and course of the assessment should be documented as transparently as possible, within the limits imposed by the inevitable use of subjective judgement. Fifth, the multiple uses of the assessments require a continuing effort to provide the documentation in such ways as to increase utility to the many types of users. Undiscovered conventional oil and gas resources are those recoverable volumes in undiscovered, discrete, conventional structural or stratigraphic traps. The USGS 2000 methodology for these resources is based on a framework of assessing numbers and sizes of undiscovered oil and gas accumulations and the associated risks. The input is standardized on a form termed the Seventh Approximation Data Form for Conventional Assessment Units. Volumes of resource are then calculated using a Monte Carlo program named Emc2, but an alternative analytic (non-Monte Carlo) program named ASSESS also can be used. The resource assessment methodology continues to change. Accumulation-size distributions are being examined to determine how sensitive the results are to size-distribution assumptions. The resource assessment output is changing to provide better applicability for economic analysis. The separate methodology for assessing continuous (unconventional) resources also has been evolving. Further studies of the relationship between geologic models of conventional and continuous resources will likely impact the respective resource assessment methodologies.     

Comparison of Methods Used to Estimate Conventional Undiscovered Petroleum Resources: World Examples

Various methods for assessing undiscovered oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquid resources were compared in support of the USGS World Petroleum Assessment 2000. Discovery process, linear fractal, parabolic fractal, engineering estimates, PETRIMES, Delphi, and the USGS 2000 methods were compared. Three comparisons of these methods were made in: (1) the Neuquen Basin province, Argentina (different assessors, same input data); (2) provinces in North Africa, Oman, and Yemen (same assessors, different methods); and (3) the Arabian Peninsula, Arabian (Persian) Gulf, and North Sea (different assessors, different methods). A fourth comparison (same assessors, same assessment methods but different geologic models), between results from structural and stratigraphic assessment units in the North Sea used only the USGS 2000 method, and hence compared the type of assessment unit rather than the method. In comparing methods, differences arise from inherent differences in assumptions regarding: (1) the underlying distribution of the parent field population (all fields, discovered and undiscovered), (2) the population of fields being estimated; that is, the entire parent distribution or the undiscovered resource distribution, (3) inclusion or exclusion of large outlier fields; (4) inclusion or exclusion of field (reserve) growth, (5) deterministic or probabilistic models, (6) data requirements, and (7) scale and time frame of the assessment. Discovery process, Delphi subjective consensus, and the USGS 2000 method yield comparable results because similar procedures are employed. In mature areas such as the Neuquen Basin province in Argentina, the linear and parabolic fractal and engineering methods were conservative compared to the other five methods and relative to new reserve additions there since 1995. The PETRIMES method gave the most optimistic estimates in the Neuquen Basin. In less mature areas, the linear fractal method yielded larger estimates relative to other methods. A geologically based model, such as one using the total petroleum system approach, is preferred in that it combines the elements of petroleum source, reservoir, trap and seal with the tectono-stratigraphic history of basin evolution with petroleum resource potential. Care must be taken to demonstrate that homogeneous populations in terms of geology, geologic risk, exploration, and discovery processes are used in the assessment process. The USGS 2000 method (7th Approximation Model, EMC computational program) is robust; that is, it can be used in both mature and immature areas, and provides comparable results when using different geologic models (e.g. stratigraphic or structural) with differing amounts of subdivisions, assessment units, within the total petroleum system.     

Oil- and gas-resource assessment in certain South American Basins—An application of ARDS (Ver. 5.0) to complex exploration and discovery histories

The modified Arps-Roberts Discovery Process Modeling System [ARDS (Ver. 4.01)] has recently been upgraded [ARDS (Ver. 5.0)] and applied to a wide variety of field discovery and wildcat drilling data with differing characteristics. ARDS is designed to forecast the number and sizes of undiscovered fields in an exploration play or basin by using historical drilling and discovery data. Fields used as input may be grown or ungrown. Two models for field growth—one offshore and the other onshore—have been implemented (Schuenemeyer and Drew, 1996). Uncertainty attributable to field growth is estimated via simulation. This upgrade of ARDS has been designed to handle situations when the data cannot be partitioned into homogeneous regions, but where estimation of the number of remaining oil and gas fields is still meaningful. In this upgrade of ARDS, many restrictions, which include those on the number of fields and wildcat wells required to forecast the size distribution of the oil and gas fields that remain to be discovered in an exploration play, a basin, or other target area, have been removed. In addition, flexibility has been gained by reforming the criteria for convergence of the model. In all, 32 basins and subbasins in South America were examined, 18 of which had sufficient data to be amenable to forecasting the field-size distribution of undiscovered oil and gas resources directly by using the Petroconsultants Inc. (1993) field discovery and wildcat drilling data. Overall, ARDS (Ver. 5.0) performed well in estimating the field-size distribution of undiscovered oil and gas resources in the 18 basins and subbasins. The aggregate volume of undiscovered petroleum resources was characterized by using histograms of the distribution of resources and the following five statistics: the mean, the 80% trimmed mean, and the 10,50 (median), and 90 quantiles. More than 38 billion barrels of oil equivalent (BOE) in fields that contain more than one million BOE individually were forecast as remaining to be discovered. The largest basin, the Campos (Brazil), is forecast to contain nearly 10 billion BOE undiscovered resources. The East Venezuela Basin (excluding the Furrial Trend) is forecast to contain about 8 billion BOE; the Austral-Magallanes Basin (Argentina and Chile), about 7 billion BOE; and the Napo (Colombia and Ecuador) and the Neuquen (Argentina) Basins, between 3 billion and 4 billion BOE. A subset of these basins that illustrate the increased flexibility of ARDS are discussed.     

A review of assessment methods for cellular automata models of land-use change and urban growth

ABSTRACT

Cellular automata (CA) models are in growing use for land-use change simulation and future scenario prediction. It is necessary to conduct model assessment that reports the quality of simulation results and how well the models reproduce reliable spatial patterns. Here, we review 347 CA articles published during 1999–2018 identified by a Scholar Google search using ‘cellular automata’, ‘land’ and ‘urban’ as keywords. Our review demonstrates that, during the past two decades, 89% of the publications include model assessment related to dataset, procedure and result using more than ten different methods. Among all methods, cell-by-cell comparison and landscape analysis were most frequently applied in the CA model assessment; specifically, overall accuracy and standard Kappa coefficient respectively rank first and second among all metrics. The end-state assessment is often criticized by modelers because it cannot adequately reflect the modeling ability of CA models. We provide five suggestions to the method selection, aiming to offer a background framework for future method choices as well as urging to focus on the assessment of input data and error propagation, procedure, quantitative and spatial change, and the impact of driving factors.     

Basic concepts in three-part quantitative assessments of undiscovered mineral resources

Since 1975, mineral resource assessments have been made for over 27 areas covering 5×10⁶ km² at various scales using what is now called the three-part form of quantitative assessment. In these assessments, (1) areas are delineated according to the types of deposits permitted by the geology,(2) the amount of metal and some ore characteristics are estimated using grade and tonnage models, and (3) the number of undiscovered deposits of each type is estimated.Permissive boundaries are drawn for one or more deposit types such that the probability of a deposit lying outside the boundary is negligible, that is, less than 1 in 100,000 to 1,000,000.     

Quantitative assessment of future development of cooper/silver resources in the Kootenai National Forest,Idaho/Montana: Part I—Estimation of the copper and silver endowments

Faced with an ever-increasing diversity of demand for the use of public lands, managers and planners are turning more often to a multiple-use approach to meet those demands. This approach requires the uses to be mutually compatible and to utilize the more valuable attributes or resource values of the land. Therefore, it is imperative that planners be provided with all available information on attribute and resource values in a timely fashion and in a format that facilitates a comparative evaluation.The Kootenai National Forest administration enlisted the U.S. Geological Survey and U.S. Bureau of Mines to perform a quantitative assessment of future copper/silver production potential within the forest from sediment-hosted copper deposits in the Revett Formation that are similar to those being mined at the Troy Mine near Spar Lake. The U.S. Geological Survey employed a quantitative assessment technique that compared the favorable host terrane in the Kootenai area with worldwide examples of known sediment-hosted copper deposits. The assessment produced probabilistic estimates of the number of undiscovered deposits that may be present in the area and of the copper and silver endowment that might be contained in them.Results of the assessment suggest that the copper/silver deposit potential is highest in the southwestern one-third of the forest. In this area there is an estimated 50 percent probability of at least 50 additional deposits occurring mostly within approximately 260,000 acres where the Revett Formation is thought to be present in the subsurface at depths of less than 1,500 meters. A Monte Carlo type simulation using data on the grade and tonnage characteristics of other known silver-rich, sediment-hosted copper deposits predicts a 50 percent probability that these undiscovered deposits will contain at least 19 million tonnes of copper and 100,000 tonnes of silver. Combined with endowments estimated for identified, but not thoroughly explored deposits, and deposits that might also occur in the remaining area of the forest, the endowment potential increases to 23 million tonnes of copper and 190,000 tonnes of silver.     

Long-term implications of new U.S. gas estimates

The US Geological Survey’s 1995 estimates of domestic undiscovered plus undeveloped natural gas nearly tripled quantities estimated in its 1989 Assessment. Much of the increase came from selected unconventional resources assessed using the paradigm of continuous-type accumulations. These include such seemingly unrelated “unconventional” gas occurrences as “tight gas,” coalbed gas, gas in shales, and deep basin-center gas. Though only a small fraction of the assessed 352 trillion cubic feet is now economic, the quantity is nevertheless significant. Moreover, the lowest cost resources are close to major gas markets where competing conventional gas is modest. With continued technological improvements these resources can contribute significantly to future U.S. gas supply, even without subsidies     

Rank-Size Statistical Assessments of Undiscovered Gold Endowment in the Bendigo and Stawell Zones (Victoria) and the Mossman Orogen (Queensland), Australia: Comparison with Three-Part Assessment Results

The Bendigo and Stawell zones in Victoria and the Mossman Orogen in north Queensland host numerous orogenic gold deposits and are likely to contain significant undiscovered gold resources. This paper discusses applications of Zipf’s law to estimate the scale of residual gold endowment in each of the regions. Testing various plausible scenarios on whether or not the largest deposit in each region has been discovered and its endowment adequately evaluated provided some measure of uncertainty of assessment results. The Bendigo and Stawell zones are estimated to host 12 undiscovered ore fields with >31 t (1 Moz) of contained gold and another 35 undiscovered ore fields with >10 t (0.32 Moz) of gold, containing in total 1600 t (51 Moz) of gold. The total residual orogenic gold endowment of the Mossman Orogen is estimated to be between 3 and 30 t of gold, contained in extensions of known deposits and up to six significant undiscovered gold ore fields each containing >1 t of gold. These estimates are comparable to results of recent three-part quantitative mineral resource assessments for those areas.     

Using PETRIMES to estimate mercury deposits in California

In this article, we examine the use of an unconventional procedure, PETRIMES, to estimate mineral resources of mercury deposits in California. The study, which is based on the nonparametric discovery process model and Q-Q plots, suggests that a lognormal distribution is appropriate for the mercury deposits in California. The results of the assessment are summarized as follows: (1) the total number of mercury deposits in the population is approximately 165; (2) the median value of the largest undiscovered deposit size is 487 flasks; (3) the mean of the remaining mercury potential is 2,500 flasks; and (4) the population resource ranges from 1,040,000 to 4,300,000 flasks (at a 0.9 probability level).     

Recovery Factors of Oil Resources in China

This paper provides a new method to estimate recovery factors of oil resources. The China National Petroleum Assessment (2003–2007) (CNPA 2007) evaluates in-place oil resources and applies the recovery factor (RF) to estimate recoverable oil resources. The RF of oil resources plays an important role in the CNPA 2007. Based on the geological features, 24 types of oil assessment units are defined, such as the Mesozoic rift unit, the Mesozoic and Cenozoic foreland unit, etc. Through the recovery factor statistics of oil reserves (discovered) in different accumulations, as well as the potential analyses of enhanced petroleum recovery, appropriate RF valuing standards of oil resources (discovered and undiscovered) in different assessment units are developed. Calculation methods of oil resource RFs are established, including the appraisal standards, scoring, and calculation steps of oil resource RFs. Through the case studies, the valuing and appraisal standards of oil resource RFs are verified. Robust appraisal standards allow the RF method to be a valuable tool to effective assessment of China’s recoverable oil resources.     

U.S. department of the interior U.S. geological survey: Fractal lognormal percentage analysis of the U.S. geological survey’s 1995 national assessment of conventional oil and gas resources

The U.S. Geological Survey periodically makes appraisals of the oil and gas resources of the Nation. In its 1995 National Assessment the onshore areas and adjoining State waters of the Nation were assessed. As part of the 1995 National Assessment, 274 conventional oil plays and 239 conventional nonassociated-gas plays were assessed. The two datasets of estimates studied herein are the following: (1) the mean, undiscovered, technically recoverable oil resources estimated for each of the 274 conventional oil plays, and (2) the mean, undiscovered, technically recoverable gas resources estimated for each of the 239 conventional nonassociatedgas plays. It was found that the two populations of petroleum estimates are both distributed approximately as lognormal distributions. Fractal lognormal percentage theory is developed and applied to the two populations of petroleum estimates. In both cases the theoretical percentages of total resources using the lognormal distribution are extremely close to the empirical percentages from the oil and nonassociated-gas data. For example, 20% of the 274 oil plays account for 73.05% of the total oil resources of the plays if the lognormal distribution is used, or for 75.52% if the data is used; 20% of the 239 nonassociated-gas plays account for 76.32% of the total nonassociated-gas resources of the plays if the lognormal distribution is used, or for 78.87% if the data is used     

Statewide Estimates of Undiscovered Deposits of Gold,Silver, Copper,Lead, and Zinc

Estimates of the number of undiscovered deposits on a statewide basis offer a different perspective on the nation's undiscovered resources of gold, silver, copper, lead, and zinc. Mean estimates of the number of undiscovered deposits statewide were extracted from the estimates of undiscovered deposits nationwide. More than 50 undiscovered deposits are estimated to occur in Alaska, Arizona, Nevada, and Wisconsin. Estimating the number of undiscovered deposits statewide serves as a measure of a state's total remaining mineral resources in known conventional deposit types.