Artificial Neural Network Prediction of Tropospheric Ozone Concentrations in Istanbul,Turkey

Tropospheric (ground‐level) ozone has adverse effects on human health and environment. In this study, next day's maximum 1‐h average ozone concentrations in Istanbul were predicted using multi‐layer perceptron (MLP) type artificial neural networks (ANNs). Nine meteorological parameters and nine air pollutant concentrations were utilized as inputs. The total 578 datasets were divided into three groups: training, cross‐validation, and testing. When all the 18 inputs were used, the best performance was obtained with a network containing one hidden layer with 24 neurons. The transfer function was hyperbolic tangent. The correlation coefficient (R), mean absolute error (MAE), root mean squared error (RMSE), and index of agreement or Willmott's Index (d₂) for the testing data were 0.90, 8.78 µg/m³, 11.15 µg/m³, and 0.95, respectively. Sensitivity analysis has indicated that the persistence information (current day's maximum and average ozone concentrations), NO concentration, average temperature, PM₁₀, maximum temperature, sunshine time, wind direction, and solar radiation were the most important input parameters. The values of R, MAE, RMSE, and d₂ did not change considerably for the MLP model using only these nine inputs. The performances of the MLP models were compared with those of regression models (i.e., multiple linear regression and multiple non‐linear regression). It has been found that there was no significant difference between the ANN and regression modeling techniques for the forecasting of ozone concentrations in Istanbul.     

Feed forward Artificial Neural Network model to predict the average summer-monsoon rainfall in India

In the present research, possibility of predicting average summer-monsoon rainfall over India has been analyzed through Artificial Neural Network model. In formulating the ANN — based predictive model, three-layer network has been constructed with sigmoid non-linearity. The monthly summer monsoon rainfall totals, tropical rainfall indices and sea surface temperature anomalies have been considered as predictors while generating the input matrix for the ANN. The data pertaining to the years 1950–1995 have been explored to develop the predictive model. Finally, the prediction performance of neural net has been compared with persistence forecast and Multiple Linear Regression forecast and the supremacy of the ANN has been established over the other processes.     

Fragility functions of blockwork wharves using artificial neural networks

The use of artificial neural networks in the general framework of a performance-based seismic vulnerability evaluation for earth retaining structures is presented. A blockwork wharf-foundation-backfill complex is modeled with advanced nonlinear 2D finite difference software, wherein liquefaction occurrence is explicitly accounted for. A simulation algorithm is adopted to sample geotechnical input parameters according to their statistical distribution, and extensive time histories analyses are then performed for several earthquake intensity levels. In the process, the seismic input is also considered as a random variable. A large dataset of virtual realizations of the behavior of different configurations under recorded ground motions is thus obtained, and an artificial neural network is implemented in order to find the unknown nonlinear relationships between seismic and geotechnical input data versus the expected performance of the facility. After this process, fragility curves are systematically derived by applying Monte Carlo simulation on the obtained correlations. The novel fragility functions herein proposed for blockwork wharves take into account different geometries, liquefaction occurrence and type of failure mechanism. Results confirm that the detrimental effects of liquefaction increase the probability of failure at all damage states. Moreover, it is also demonstrated that increasing the base width/height ratio results in higher failure probabilities for the horizontal sliding than for the tilting towards the sea.     

Amelioration of Carbon Removal Prediction for an Activated Sludge Process using an Artificial Neural Network (ANN)

A dynamic simulation model of the Ankara central wastewater treatment plant (ACWTP) was evaluated for the prediction of effluent COD concentrations. Firstly, a mechanistic model of the municipal wastewater treatment process was developed based on Activated Sludge Model No. 1 (ASM1) by using a GPS‐X computer program. Then, the mechanistic model was combined with a feed‐forward back‐propagation neural network in parallel configuration. The appropriate architecture of the neural network models was determined through several iterative steps of training and testing of the models. Both models were run with the data obtained from the plant operation and laboratory analysis to predict the dynamic behavior of the process. Using these two models, effluent COD concentrations were predicted and the results were compared for the purpose of evaluation of treatment performance. It was observed that the ASM1 ANN model approach gave better results and better described the operational conditions of the plant than ASM1.     

Neural network modelling for mean velocity and turbulence intensities of steep channel flows

The main purpose of this study is to evaluate the potential of simulating the profiles of the mean velocity and turbulence intensities for the steep open channel flows over a smooth boundary using artificial neural networks. In a laboratory flume, turbulent flow conditions were measured using a fibre‐optic laser doppler velocimeter (FLDV). One thousand and sixty‐four data sets were collected for different slopes and aspect ratios at different locations. These data sets were randomly split into two subsets, i.e. training and validation sets. The multi‐layer functional link network (MFLN) was used to construct the simulation model based on the training data. The constructed MFLN models can almost perfectly simulate the velocity profile and turbulence intensity. The values of correlation coefficient (γ) are close to one and the values of root mean square error (RMSE) are close to zero in all conditions. The results demonstrate that the MFLN can precisely simulate the velocity profiles, while the log law and Reynolds stress model (RSM) are less effective when used to simulate the velocity profiles close to the side wall. The simulated longitudinal turbulence intensities yielded by the MFLN were also fairly consistent with the measured data, while the simulated vertical turbulence intensities by the RSM were not consistent with the measured data. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

基于GIS与ANN耦合技术的地裂缝灾情非线性模拟预测系统——以山西榆次地裂缝灾害为例

现代地裂缝在世界许多国家普遍存在 ,已成为当今世界范围内的主要地质灾害之一。本文在详尽分析了山西榆次地裂缝的各个致灾因子的基础上 ,利用GIS技术建立了地质学意义上的专题层 ;然后采用人工神经网络技术构建出了地裂缝灾害活动性的评价模型 ,并建立了地裂缝活动性的评价系统 ,对榆次地裂缝进行了灾害活动性评价 ,为榆次市城建和国土规划等部门的正确决策提供了重要的科学依据