A performance‐based framework for adaptive seismic aftershock risk assessment

Operative seismic aftershock risk forecasting can be particularly useful for rapid decision‐making in the presence of an ongoing sequence. In such a context, limit state first‐excursion probabilities (risk) for the forecasting interval (a day) can represent the potential for progressive state of damage in a structure. This work lays out a performance‐based framework for adaptive aftershock risk assessment in the immediate post‐mainshock environment. A time‐dependent structural performance variable is adopted in order to measure the cumulative damage in a structure. A set of event‐dependent fragility curves as a function of the first‐mode spectral acceleration for a prescribed limit state is calculated by employing back‐to‐back nonlinear dynamic analyses. An epidemic‐type aftershock sequence model is employed for estimating the spatio‐temporal evolution of aftershocks. The event‐dependent fragility curves for a given limit state are then integrated together with the probability distribution of aftershock spectral acceleration based on the epidemic‐type aftershock sequence aftershock hazard. The daily probability of limit state first‐excursion is finally calculated as a weighted combination of the sequence of limit state probabilities conditioned on the number of aftershocks. As a numerical example, daily aftershock risk is calculated for the L'Aquila 2009 aftershock sequence (central Italy). A representative three‐story reinforced concrete frame with infill panels, which has cyclic strength and stiffness degradation, is used in order to evaluate the progressive damage. It is observed that the proposed framework leads to a sound forecasting of limit state first‐excursion in the structure for two limit states of significant damage and near collapse. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Seismic risk assessment considering cumulative damage due to aftershocks

Calculating the limit state (LS) exceedance probability for a structure considering the main seismic event and the triggered aftershocks (AS) is complicated both by the time‐dependent rate of aftershock occurrence and also by the cumulative damage caused by the sequence of events. Taking advantage of a methodology developed previously by the authors for post‐mainshock (MS) risk assessment, the LS probability due to a sequence of mainshock and the triggered aftershocks is calculated for a given aftershock forecasting time window. The proposed formulation takes into account both the time‐dependent rate of aftershock occurrence and also the damage accumulation due to the triggered aftershocks. It is demonstrated that an existing reinforced concrete moment‐resisting frame with infills subjected to the main event and the triggered sequence exceeds the near‐collapse LS. On the other hand, the structure does not reach the onset of near‐collapse LS when the effect of triggered aftershocks is not considered. It is shown, based on simplifying assumptions, that the derived formulation yields asymptotically to the same Poisson‐type functional form used when the cumulative damage is not being considered. This leads to a range of approximate solutions by substituting the fragilities calculated for intact, MS‐damaged, and MS‐plus‐one‐AS‐damaged structures in the asymptotic simplified formulation. The latter two approximate solutions provide good agreement with the derived formulation. Even when the fragility of intact structure is employed, the approximate solution (considering only the time‐dependent rate of aftershock occurrence) leads to higher risk estimates compared with those obtained based on only the mainshock. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Wavelet‐based simulation of spectrum‐compatible aftershock accelerograms

In damage‐based seismic design it is desirable to account for the ability of aftershocks to cause further damage to an already damaged structure due to the main shock. Availability of recorded or simulated aftershock accelerograms is a critical component in the non‐linear time‐history analyses required for this purpose, and simulation of realistic accelerograms is therefore going to be the need of the profession for a long time to come. This paper attempts wavelet‐based simulation of aftershock accelerograms for two scenarios. In the first scenario, recorded main shock and aftershock accelerograms are available along with the pseudo‐spectral acceleration (PSA) spectrum of the anticipated main shock motion, and an accelerogram has been simulated for the anticipated aftershock motion such that it incorporates temporal features of the recorded aftershock accelerogram. In the second scenario, a recorded main shock accelerogram is available along with the PSA spectrum of the anticipated main shock motion and PSA spectrum and strong motion duration of the anticipated aftershock motion. Here, the accelerogram for the anticipated aftershock motion has been simulated assuming that temporal features of the main shock accelerogram are replicated in the aftershock accelerograms at the same site. The proposed algorithms have been illustrated with the help of the main shock and aftershock accelerograms recorded for the 1999 Chi–Chi earthquake. It has been shown that the proposed algorithm for the second scenario leads to useful results even when the main shock and aftershock accelerograms do not share the same temporal features, as long as strong motion duration of the anticipated aftershock motion is properly estimated. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Expected loss‐based alarm threshold set for earthquake early warning systems

Earthquake early warning systems (EEWS) seem to have potential as tools for real‐time seismic risk management and mitigation. In fact, although the evacuation of buildings requires warning time not available in many urbanized areas threatened by seismic hazard, they may still be used for the real‐time protection of critical facilities using automatic systems in order to reduce the losses subsequent to a catastrophic event. This is possible due to the real‐time seismology, which consists of methods and procedures for the rapid estimation of earthquake features, as magnitude and location, based on measurements made on the first seconds of the P‐waves. An earthquake engineering application of earthquake early warning (EEW) may be intended as a system able to issue the alarm, if some recorded parameter exceeds a given threshold, to activate risk mitigation actions before the quake strikes at a site of interest. Feasibility analysis and design of such EEWS require the assessment of the expected loss reduction due to the security action and set of the alarm threshold. In this paper a procedure to carry out these tasks in the performance‐based earthquake engineering probabilistic framework is proposed. A merely illustrative example refers to a simple structure assumed to be a classroom. Structural damage and non‐structural collapses are considered; the security action is to shelter occupants below the desks. The cost due to a false alarm is assumed to be related to the interruption of didactic activities. Results show how the comparison of the expected losses, for the alarm‐issuance and non‐issuance cases, allows setting the alarm threshold on a quantitative and consistent basis, and how it may be a tool for the design of engineering applications of EEW. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Framework of aftershock fragility assessment–case studies: older California reinforced concrete building frames

Current seismic design codes and damage estimation tools neglect the influence of successive events on structures. However, recent earthquakes have demonstrated that structures damaged during an initial event (mainshock) are more vulnerable to severe damage and collapse during a subsequent event (aftershock). This increased vulnerability to damage translates to increased likelihood of loss of use, property, and life. Thus, a reliable risk assessment tool is required that characterizes the risk of the undamaged structure subjected to an initial event and the risk of the damaged structure under subsequent events. In this paper, a framework for development of aftershock fragilities is presented; these aftershock fragilities define the likelihood that a building damaged during a mainshock will exhibit a given damage state following one or more aftershocks. Thus, the framework provides a method for characterizing the risk associated with damage accumulation in the structure. The framework includes the following: (i) creation of a numerical model of the structure; (ii) characterization of building damage states; (iii) generation of a suite of mainshock–aftershocks; (iv) mainshock–aftershock analyses; and (v) development of aftershock fragility curves using probabilistic aftershock demand models, defined as a linear regression of aftershock demand–intensity pairs in a logarithmic space, and damage‐state prediction models. The framework is not limited to a specific structure type but requires numerical models defining structural response and linking structural response with damage. In the current study, non‐ductile RC frames (low‐rise, mid‐rise, and high‐rise) are selected as case studies for the application of the framework. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Spatiotemporal seismic hazard and risk assessment of M9.0 megathrust earthquake sequences of wood‐frame houses in Victoria,British Columbia,Canada

Megathrust earthquake sequences, comprising mainshocks and triggered aftershocks along the subduction interface and in the overriding crust, can impact multiple buildings and infrastructure in a city. The time between the mainshocks and aftershocks usually is too short to retrofit the structures; therefore, moderate‐size aftershocks can cause additional damage. To have a better understanding of the impact of aftershocks on city‐wide seismic risk assessment, a new simulation framework of spatiotemporal seismic hazard and risk assessment of future M9.0 sequences in the Cascadia subduction zone is developed. The simulation framework consists of an epidemic‐type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model, ground‐motion model, and state‐dependent seismic fragility model. The spatiotemporal ETAS model is modified to characterise aftershocks of large and anisotropic M9.0 mainshock ruptures. To account for damage accumulation of wood‐frame houses due to aftershocks in Victoria, British Columbia, Canada, state‐dependent fragility curves are implemented. The new simulation framework can be used for quasi‐real‐time aftershock hazard and risk assessments and city‐wide post‐event risk management.     

Post‐repair effect of column jackets on aftershock fragilities of damaged RC bridges subjected to successive earthquakes

In light of recent earthquakes, structures damaged during an initial seismic event (mainshock) may be more vulnerable to severe damage and collapse during a subsequent event (aftershock). In this paper, a framework for the development of aftershock fragilities is presented; these aftershock fragilities define the likelihood that a bridge damaged during an initial event will exhibit a given damage state following one or more subsequent events. The framework is capable of (i) quantifying the cumulative damage of unrepaired bridges subjected to mainshock–aftershock sequences (effect of multiple earthquakes) and (ii) evaluating the effectiveness of column repair schemes such as steel and fiber‐reinforced‐polymer jackets (post‐repair effect of jackets). To achieve this aim, the numerical model of repaired columns is validated using existing experimental results. A non‐seismically designed bridge is chosen as a case study and is modeled for three numerical bridge models: a damaged (but unrepaired) bridge model, and two bridge models with columns repaired with steel and fiber‐reinforced polymer jackets. A series of back‐to‐back dynamic analyses under successive earthquakes are performed for each level of existing damage. Using simulated results, failure probabilities of components for multiple limit states are computed for each bridge model and then are used to evaluate the relative vulnerability of components associated with cumulative damage and column repair. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The effects of repeated earthquake ground motions on the non‐linear response of SDOF systems

In many parts of the world, the repetition of medium–strong intensity earthquake ground motions at brief intervals of time has been observed. The new design philosophies for buildings in seismic areas are based on multi‐level design approaches, which take into account more than a single damageability limit state. According to these approaches, a sequence of seismic actions may produce important consequences on the structural safety. In this paper, the effects of repeated earthquake ground motions on the response of single‐degree‐of‐freedom systems (SDOF) with non‐linear behaviour are analysed. A comparison is performed with the effect of a single seismic event on the originally non‐damaged system for different hysteretic models in terms of pseudo‐acceleration response spectra, behaviour factor q and damage parameters. The elastic–perfect plastic system is the most vulnerable one under repeated earthquake ground motions and is characterized by a strong reduction of the q‐factor. A moment resisting steel frame is analysed as well, showing a reduction of the q‐factor under repeated earthquake ground motions even larger than that of an equivalent SDOF system. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Development of fragility functions as a damage classification/prediction method for steel moment‐resisting frames using a wavelet‐based damage sensitive feature

Fragility functions are commonly used in performance‐based earthquake engineering for predicting the damage state of a structure subjected to an earthquake. This process often involves estimating the structural damage as a function of structural response, such as the story drift ratio and the peak floor absolute acceleration. In this paper, a new framework is proposed to develop fragility functions to be used as a damage classification/prediction method for steel structures based on a wavelet‐based damage sensitive feature (DSF). DSFs are often used in structural health monitoring as an indicator of the damage state of the structure, and they are easily estimated from recorded structural responses. The proposed framework for damage classification of steel structures subjected to earthquakes is demonstrated and validated with a set of numerically simulated data for a four‐story steel moment‐resisting frame designed based on current seismic provisions. It is shown that the damage state of the frame is predicted with less variance using the fragility functions derived from the wavelet‐based DSF than it is with fragility functions derived from an alternate acceleration‐based measure, the spectral acceleration at the first mode period of the structure. Therefore, the fragility functions derived from the wavelet‐based DSF can be used as a probabilistic damage classification model in the field of structural health monitoring and an alternative damage prediction model in the field of performance‐based earthquake engineering. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Evaluation of displacement‐based vulnerability assessment methodology using observed damage data from Christchurch

On 22 February 2011, Christchurch City experienced a destructive magnitude (Mw) 6.2 aftershock following the main event of magnitude (Mw) 7.1 on the 4 September 2010. Severe damage was inflicted on the building stock, particularly within the central business district (CBD) of Christchurch. The strong motion stations around the CBD region and extensive building damage survey information from the Christchurch City Council provided a unique opportunity to calibrate a theoretical regional vulnerability assessment model developed and refined to be applicable for New Zealand (NZ) buildings. In this study, data from the building safety evaluation survey conducted by Christchurch City Council are synthesised and processed to extract details on building typologies in the CBD region and the colour tagging assigned to each building depending on the degree of damage. A displacement‐based framework is used to carry out vulnerability assessment for Christchurch buildings to estimate damage sustained under the recorded ground motions in the February event. As the damage survey indicators were ‘colour tags’, a mapping scheme has been explored to link the observed colour tagging damage statistics with ‘drift‐based damage limit states’ adopted in the theoretical approach. A sensitivity analysis is carried out to calibrate the mapping scheme, which can provide estimates of proportions of buildings likely to fall in different colour regimes when used in conjunction with the proposed vulnerability assessment methodology. It is shown that the methodology is reasonably robust, thereby increasing the confidence in using this approach to predict seismic vulnerability of building stock in NZ. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Functionality‐fragility surfaces

The evaluation of functionality and its evolution in the aftermath of extreme events and during the restoration phase is a critical step in disaster resilience assessment. To this respect, this paper presents the ‘Functionality‐Fragility Surface’ (FFS), which is a tool for probabilistic functionality and resilience evaluation of damaged structures, infrastructure systems, and communities. FFS integrates two well‐known tools, namely Fragility Curves and Restoration Functions, to present the probability of loss of functionality of a system as a function of the extreme‐event intensity, as well as the elapsed time from the initiation of the restoration process. Because of their versatility, FFSs can be applied to components and systems belonging to different infrastructure sectors (e.g., transportation, power distribution, and telecommunication), so they provide a common rigorous paradigm for integrated resilience analyses of multiple sectors, as well as for studies on interdependencies within and across sectors. While it is shown that FFSs can be developed using available data and simple computations for different types of structures and infrastructure systems, this paper proposes also a sophisticated simulation‐based methodology to develop FFSs for individual bridges, taking into account the uncertainties involved in the response, damage, and restoration scheduling of bridges. A Multi‐Span Simply Supported Steel Girder bridge is used to showcase the application of the proposed methodology. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Scaling of ductility and damage‐based strength reduction factors for horizontal motions

The conventional approach of obtaining the inelastic response spectra for the aseismic design of structures involves the reduction of elastic spectra via response modification factors. A response modification factor is usually taken as a product of (i) strength factor, R_S, (ii) ductility factor, R_μ, and (iii) redundancy factor, R_R. Ductility factor, also known as strength reduction factor (SRF), is considered to primarily depend on the initial time period of the single‐degree‐of‐freedom (SDOF) oscillator and the displacement ductility demand ratio for the ground motion. This study proposes a preliminary scaling model for estimating the SRFs of horizontal ground motions in terms of earthquake magnitude, strong motion duration and predominant period of the ground motion, geological site conditions, and ductility demand ratio, with a given level of confidence. The earlier models have not considered the simultaneous dependence of the SRFs on various governing parameters. Since the ductility demand ratio is not a complete measure of the cumulative damage in the structure during the earthquake‐induced vibrations, the existing definition of the SRF is sought to be modified with the introduction of damage‐based SRF (in place of ductility‐based SRF). A parallel scaling model has been proposed for estimating the damage‐based SRFs. This model considers damage and ductility supply ratio as parameters instead of ductility demand ratio. Through a parametric study on ductility‐based SRFs, it has been shown that the hitherto assumed insensitivity of earthquake magnitude and strong motion duration may not be always justified and that the initial time period of the oscillator plays an important role in the dependence of SRF on these parameters. Further, the damage‐based SRFs are found to show similar parametric dependence as observed in the case of the ductility‐based SRFs. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Stochastic procedure for the simulation of synthetic main shock‐aftershock ground motion sequences

According to the current seismic codes, structures are designed to resist the first damaging earthquake during their service life. However, after a strong main shock, a structure may still face damaging aftershocks. The main shock‐aftershock sequence may result in major damage and eventually the collapse of a structure. Current studies on seismic hazard mainly focus on the modeling and simulation of main shocks. This paper proposes a 3‐step procedure to generate main shock‐aftershock sequences of pairs of horizontal components of a ground motion at a site of interest. The first step generates ground motions for the main shock using either a source‐based or site‐based model. The second step generates sequences of aftershocks' magnitudes, locations, and times of occurrence using either a fault‐based or seismicity‐based model. The third step simulates pairs of ground motion components using a new empirical model proposed in this paper. We develop prediction equations for the controlling parameters of a ground motion model, where the predictors are the site condition and the aftershock characteristics from the second step. The coefficients in the prediction equations and the correlation between the model parameters (of the 2 horizontal components of 1 record and of several records in 1 sequence) are estimated using a database of aftershock accelerograms. A backward stepwise deletion method is used to simplify the initial candidate prediction equations and avoid overfitting the data. The procedure, based on easily identifiable engineering parameters, is a useful tool to incorporate effects of aftershocks into seismic analysis and design.     

Local‐ and regional‐scale biomorphodynamics due to tree uprooting in semi‐natural and managed montane forests of the Sudetes Mountains,Central Europe

In this work, direct and indirect geomorphic consequences of wind‐related tree uprooting are examined, using an extensive dataset from the mountain range of the Sudetes, Poland. The role of local conditions in influencing the geomorphic efficacy of tree uprooting is examined, as well as issues of upscaling individual observations from experimental sites. This problem is approached at a range of spatial and observational scales, from monitoring of root plate degradation over time through to examination of wind effects at a slope scale and region‐wide analysis. In our study area the mean root plate volume is between 0.4 and 4.2 m³ for spruce and 2.4 m³ for beech, and their degradation may last tens of years. The density of relict pit‐and‐mound microtopography varies from 2.7 up to 40 pairs per hectare and the maximum coverage of terrain is 4.7%. The volume of treethrow mounds varies from 0.5 to 3.1 m³ and mounds seem to outlive the pits formed in the same episode of disturbance. However, in specific lithological and topographic conditions, pit‐and‐mound topography does not form. The maximum biogenic transport attributable to a single windstorm event is c. 80 m³ ha^?1, while soil turnover times are calculated in the order of 1000–10 000 years. Rock fragment ‘mining’ is an important biogeomorphic process, both in terms of impact on hillslope surfaces and on soil properties. Gravel armours and small‐scale stepped topography may form instead of typical pit–mound associations in specific circumstances. Managed forests appear more prone to wind damage and associated geomorphic consequences. In the Sudetes Mountains, the variable role of tree uprooting in local and regional hillslope denudation is governed by forest stand structure, topography and regolith properties, with the former significantly influenced by human activity. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

人工主余震作用下桥墩结构损伤预测评估分析

主余震作用下,断层距(RJB)和余震次数的不同对结构造成的损伤也大不相同,进行主余震序列下桥梁损伤评估时需要考虑断层距、余震次数等影响因素.基于OpenSees平台,以一座连续梁桥为例,根据人工主余震构造时不同的影响因素,选用余震衰减和PGA调幅的人工主余震构造法构造主余震序列进行结构损伤分析,并与实际主余震事件的损伤...     

Direct displacement‐based seismic assessment procedure for multi‐span reinforced concrete bridges with single‐column piers

In Italy, as in other high seismic risk countries, many bridges, nowadays deemed ‘strategic’ for civil protection interventions after an earthquake, were built without antiseismic criteria, and therefore their seismic assessment is mandatory. Accordingly, the development of a seismic assessment procedure that gives reliable results and, at the same time, is sufficiently simple to be applied on a large population of bridges in a short time is very useful. In this paper, a displacement‐based procedure for the assessment of multi‐span RC bridges, satisfying these requirements and called direct displacement‐based assessment (DDBA), is proposed. Based on the direct displacement‐based design previously developed by Priestley et al., DDBA idealizes the multi DOF bridge structure as an equivalent SDOF system and hence defines a safety factor in terms of displacement. DDBA was applied to hypothetical bridge configurations. The same structures were analyzed also using standard force‐based approach. The reliability of the two methods was checked performing IDA with response spectrum compatible accelerograms. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

On the applicability of the RETAS model for forecasting aftershock probability in underground mines (Kiirunavaara Mine,Sweden)

Aftershock series of even comparatively small seismic events can pose a risk to the mining operation or the personnel in deep underground mines as the main shocks and some of the aftershocks can cause damage in the rock mass. Stochastic modeling was applied in this study for the analysis of the temporal evolution of aftershock occurrence probability during a M1.85 aftershock sequence in Kiirunavaara Mine, Sweden. The Restricted Epidemic-Type Aftershock Sequence (RETAS) model was chosen for estimation of the aftershock occurrence probability. This model considers all events with magnitude above the magnitude of completeness M₀ and has the advantage of including the Modified Omori Formula (MOF) model and Epidemic-Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) model as its end versions, considering also all intermediate models. The model was applied sequentially to data samples covering cumulative periods of time, starting from the first 2 h after the main event and increasing them by 2 h until the period covered the entire 72-h sequence. For each sample, the best-fit RETAS version was identified and the probability of a M?≥?0.5 aftershock for every next 2 h was determined through Monte Carlo simulation. The feasibility of the resulting probability evolution for suspension and re-starting of the mining operations was discussed together with possible prospects for future development of the methodology.

     

Evaluation of site‐dependent constant‐damage design spectra for reinforced concrete structures

An investigation on the validity of the conventional design approach known as constant displacement ductility is carried out. The hysteretic behaviour described by the Modified Takeda model is taken to represent the characteristics of reinforced concrete structural systems. The results presented in the form of seismic damage spectra indicate that the conventional design approach may not be valid because cumulative damage is excessively high. The inelastic design spectra based on the constant‐damage concept are proposed in terms of simplified expressions. The expressions are derived from constant‐damage design spectra computed by non‐linear response analysis for SDOF systems subjected to ground motions recorded on rock sites, alluvium deposits, and soft‐soil sites. The proposed expressions, which are dependent on the local soil conditions, are functions of target seismic damage, displacement ductility ratio and period of vibration. The seismic damage of structures that have been designed based on this new design approach is also checked by a design‐and‐evaluation approach. The results are found to be satisfactory. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Seismic analyses of conventional and improved marginal wharves

Marginal wharves are key components in providing functionality of port facilities. Ports are central components of the US economy. Earthquake damage to a port can disrupt the economic stability. Therefore, port facilities must be able to quickly return to full operation shortly after a seismic event. Prior studies have shown that integrity of marginal wharves may be compromised by excessive soil movement and structural damage. The latter is often localized at pile‐to‐wharf connections and in the pile body buried within the soil. Recent research has resulted in an improved connection design that mitigates damage. This study was undertaken to evaluate the full seismic performance of marginal wharves including both conventional and damage‐resisting connections. A series of finite element models of a representative pile‐supported wharf facility were created. The models varied in their moment‐resisting pile‐to‐wharf connections. A total‐stress analysis approach was used to capture the soil response along with p–y, t–z, and Q–z soil–structure interaction springs. Validated connection interface elements were integrated with non‐linear frame elements to simulate the marginal wharf structure and substructure. Non‐linear static pushover and dynamic time history analyses, for three different hazard levels, were performed. The results of the numerical simulations were used to assess the performance of the marginal wharf including estimates of crane damage and port downtime. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.