Seismic damage evaluation in urban areas using the capacity spectrum method: Application to Barcelona

Conceptual aspects related to seismic vulnerability, damage and risk evaluation are discussed first, together with a short review of the most widely used possibilities for seismic evaluation of structures. The capacity spectrum method and the way of obtaining seismic damage scenarios for urban areas starting from capacity and fragility curves are then discussed. The determination of capacity curves for buildings using non-linear structural analysis tools is then explained, together with a simplified expeditious procedure allowing the development of fragility curves. The seismic risk of the buildings of Barcelona, Spain, is analyzed in the paper, based on the application of the capacity spectrum method. The seismic hazard in the area of the city is described by means of the reduced 5% damped elastic response spectrum. The information on the buildings was obtained by collecting, arranging, improving and completing a broad database of the dwellings and current buildings. The buildings existing in Barcelona are mainly of two types: unreinforced masonry structures and reinforced concrete buildings with waffled-slab floors. The ArcView software was used to create a GIS tool for managing the collected information in order to develop seismic risk scenarios. This study shows that the vulnerability of the buildings is significant in Barcelona and, therefore, in spite of the low-to-moderate seismic hazard in the region, the expected seismic risk is considerable.     

Development and assessment of damage‐to‐loss models for moment‐frame reinforced concrete buildings

The assessment of earthquake loss often requires the definition of a relation between a measure of damage and a quantity of loss, usually achieved through the employment of a damage‐to‐loss model. These models are frequently characterized by a large variability, which inevitably increases the uncertainty in the vulnerability assessment and earthquake loss estimation. This study provides an insight on the development of damage‐to‐loss functions for moment‐frame reinforced concrete buildings through an analytical methodology. Tri‐dimensional finite element models of existing reinforced concrete buildings were subjected to a number of ground motion records compatible with the seismicity in the region of interest, through nonlinear dynamic analysis. These results were used to assess, for a number of damage states, the probability distribution of loss ratio, taking into consideration member damage and different repair techniques, as well as to derive sets of fragility functions. Then, a vulnerability model (in terms of the ratio of cost of repair to cost of replacement, conditional on the level of ground shaking intensity) was derived and compared with the vulnerability functions obtained through the combination of various damage‐to‐loss models with the set of fragility functions developed herein. In order to provide realistic estimates of economic losses due to seismic action, a comprehensive study on repair costs using current Portuguese market values was also carried out. The results of this study highlight important issues in the derivation of vulnerability functions, which are a fundamental component for an adequate seismic risk assessment. © 2015 The Authors. Earthquake Engineering & Structural Dynamics published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.     

Seismic vulnerability and risk assessment: case study of the historic city centre of Coimbra, Portugal

Seismic risk evaluation of built-up areas involves analysis of the level of earthquake hazard of the region, building vulnerability and exposure. Within this approach that defines seismic risk, building vulnerability assessment assumes great importance, not only because of the obvious physical consequences in the eventual occurrence of a seismic event, but also because it is the one of the few potential aspects in which engineering research can intervene. In fact, rigorous vulnerability assessment of existing buildings and the implementation of appropriate retrofitting solutions can help to reduce the levels of physical damage, loss of life and the economic impact of future seismic events. Vulnerability studies of urban centres should be developed with the aim of identifying building fragilities and reducing seismic risk. As part of the rehabilitation of the historic city centre of Coimbra, a complete identification and inspection survey of old masonry buildings has been carried out. The main purpose of this research is to discuss vulnerability assessment methodologies, particularly those of the first level, through the proposal and development of a method previously used to determine the level of vulnerability, in the assessment of physical damage and its relationship with seismic intensity. Also presented and discussed are the strategy and proposed methodology adopted for the vulnerability assessment, damage and loss scenarios for the city centre of Coimbra, Portugal, using a GIS mapping application.     

Building vulnerability assessment and damage scenarios in Celano (Italy) using a quick survey data-based methodology

A procedure for assessing the seismic vulnerability of residential buildings is presented along with the results of its application in an Italian town in Abruzzo (Celano Aq). This procedure is part of a methodological proposal which includes specific studies on expected seismic inputs and site effects analyses. The procedure is based on a simplified collection of data, such as typological features and factors concerning the seismic behaviour of buildings, and provides an estimate of seismic vulnerability and an expected damage forecast using fragility curves. The instruments and methods used for the Celano project are an updated and improved version of those applied to previous vulnerability investigations. This paper demonstrates how this procedure can meet the objectives of the integrated methodology proposed. In fact, the information that can be obtained using this procedure—state of vulnerability, risk analyses and GIS presentations of damage scenarios—could be used in urban planning to reduce seismical risk.     

Effect of out-of-plane behavior on seismic fragility of masonry buildings in Turkey

This study focuses on the evaluation of seismic safety of unreinforced masonry buildings in Turkey by using fragility curves generated for two behavior modes of load bearing walls: in-plane and out-of-plane. During generation of fragility curves, a force-based approach has been used. There exist two limit states in terms of base shear strength for in-plane behavior mode and flexural strength for out-of-plane behavior mode. To assess the seismic vulnerability of unreinforced masonry buildings in Turkey, fragility curves generated for in-plane behavior were verified by the observed damage during the 1995 Dinar (Turkey) earthquake and fragility curves generated for out-of-plane behavior were verified by the observed damage during the 2010 Elaz?? (Turkey) earthquake. The verification results reveal that the proposed fragility-based procedure can provide an alternative for the seismic safety evaluation of unreinforced masonry buildings in Turkey. Using this procedure, it becomes possible to investigate a large population of masonry buildings located in regions of high seismic risk in a short period of time. The obtained results are valuable in the sense that they can be used as a database during the development of strategies for pre-earthquake planning and risk mitigation for earthquake prone regions of Turkey.     

On the treatment of uncertainty in seismic vulnerability and portfolio risk assessment

In a related study developed by the authors, building fragility is represented by intensity‐specific distributions of damage exceedance probability of various damage states. The contribution of the latter has been demonstrated in the context of loss estimation of building portfolios, where it is shown that the proposed concept of conditional fragility functions provides the link between seismic intensity and the uncertainty in damage exceedance probabilities. In the present study, this methodology is extended to the definition of building vulnerability, whereby vulnerability functions are characterized by hazard‐consistent distributions of damage ratio per level of primary seismic intensity parameter—Sa(T₁). The latter is further included in a loss assessment framework, in which the impact of variability and spatial correlation of damage ratio in the probabilistic evaluation of seismic loss is accounted for, using test‐bed portfolios of 2, 5, and 8‐story precode reinforced concrete buildings located in the district of Lisbon, Portugal. This methodology is evaluated in comparison with current state‐of‐the‐art methods of vulnerability and loss calculation, highlighting the discrepancies that can arise in loss estimates when the variability and spatial distributions of damage ratio, influenced by ground motion properties other than the considered primary intensity measure, are not taken into account.     

Vector-intensity measure based seismic vulnerability analysis of bridge structures

This paper presents a method for seismic vulnerability analysis of bridge structures based on vector-valued intensity measure(v IM), which predicts the limit-state capacities efficiently with multi-intensity measures of seismic event. Accounting for the uncertainties of the bridge model, ten single-bent overpass bridge structures are taken as samples statistically using Latin hypercube sampling approach. 200 earthquake records are chosen randomly for the uncertainties of ground motions according to the site condition of the bridges. The uncertainties of structural capacity and seismic demand are evaluated with the ratios of demand to capacity in different damage state. By comparing the relative importance of different intensity measures, Sa(T1) and Sa(T2) are chosen as v IM. Then, the vector-valued fragility functions of different bridge components are developed. Finally, the system-level vulnerability of the bridge based on v IM is studied with DunnettSobel class correlation matrix which can consider the correlation effects of different bridge components. The study indicates that an increment IMs from a scalar IM to v IM results in a significant reduction in the dispersion of fragility functions and in the uncertainties in evaluating earthquake risk. The feasibility and validity of the proposed vulnerability analysis method is validated and the bridge is more vulnerable than any components.     

A hybrid method for the vulnerability assessment of R/C and URM buildings

The methodology followed by the Aristotle University (AUTh) team for the vulnerability assessment of reinforced concrete (R/C) and unreinforced masonry (URM) structures is presented. The paper focuses on the derivation of vulnerability (fragility) curves in terms of peak ground acceleration (PGA), as well as spectral displacement (s _d), and also includes the estimation of capacity curves, for several R/C and URM building types. The vulnerability assessment methodology is based on the hybrid approach developed at AUTh, which combines statistical data with appropriately processed (utilising repair cost models) results from nonlinear dynamic or static analyses, that permit extrapolation of statistical data to PGA’s and/or spectral displacements for which no data are available. The statistical data used herein are from earthquake-damaged greek buildings. An extensive numerical study is carried out, wherein a large number of building types (representing most of the common typologies in S. Europe) are modelled and analysed. Vulnerability curves for several damage states are then derived using the aforementioned hybrid approach. These curves are subsequently used in combination with the mean spectrum of the Microzonation study of Thessaloniki as the basis for the derivation of new vulnerability curves involving spectral quantities. Pushover curves are derived for all building types, then reduced to standard capacity curves, and can easily be used together with the S _d fragility curves as an alternative for developing seismic risk scenarios.     

Force and Displacement Based Vulnerability Assessment for Traditional Buildings

Vulnerability assessment for historic buildings is usually carried out using capacity based approaches and prediction of losses is obtained by using normal or lognormal distributions for expected levels of macro seismic intensity or peak ground accelerations. Several authors have outlined the limitations of such approach. The paper presents a method to correlate analysis of seismic vulnerability using a failure mechanisms approach to observed in situ damage. The various aspects of the procedure are highlighted with application to a real case. It is shown how once the typologies within a sample have been identified, fragility curves for each of them can be derived and predictive cumulative damage curve obtained for samples for which direct survey of damage data is lacking. Finally the paper shows how the failure mechanism approach can be used to derive damage scenarios both in terms of spectral acceleration and spectral displacement     

损失分布和非结构损失对房屋建筑地易损性的影响

房屋建筑的地震易损性是地震损失评估和地震巨灾风险模型的基础。作为房屋建筑的重要组成部分,各类非结构构件的损失在现有的易损性模型中并未得到足够重视。本文以一栋典型钢筋混凝土框架结构教学楼为对象,通过将房屋建筑中的各类构件划分为具有不同地震损伤特性和损失后果的易损性组,考察建筑内的损失分布和非结构损失对房屋建筑地震易损性的影响。分析结果表明:由于许多非结构构件在中小地震作用下即可能发生较严重的破坏,房屋建筑在中小地震下的易损性主要受非结构损失控制;随着地震动强度等级的不断提高,结构损伤渐趋严重,结构损失对整体建筑易损性的影响不断增大;在结构进入震后不可修状态之前,建筑不同楼层的损失分布是评估建筑地震损失时不可忽略的因素。     

A methodology for defining seismic scenario‐structure‐based limit state criteria for rc high‐rise wall buildings using net drift

As a result of population growth and consequent urbanization, the number of high‐rise buildings is rapidly growing worldwide resulting in increased exposure to multiple‐scenario earthquakes and associated risk. The wide range in frequency contents of possible strong ground motions can have an impact on the seismic response, vulnerability and limit states definitions of RC high‐rise wall structures. Motivated by the pressing need to derive more accurate fragility relations to be used in seismic risk assessment and mitigation of such structures, a methodology is proposed to obtain reliable, Seismic Scenario‐Structure‐Based (SSSB) definitions of limit state criteria. A 30‐story wall building, located in a multi‐seismic scenario study region, is utilized to illustrate the methodology. The building is designed following modern codes and then modeled using nonlinear fiber‐based approach. Uncertainty in ground motions is accounted for by the selection of forty real earthquake records representing two seismic scenarios. Seismic scenario‐based building local response at increasing earthquake intensities is mapped using Multi‐Record Incremental Dynamic Analyses (MRIDAs) with a new scalar intensity measure. Net Inter‐Story Drift (NISD) is selected as a global damage measure based on a parametric study involving seven buildings ranging from 20 to 50 stories. This damage measure is used to link local damage events, including shear, to global response under different seismic scenarios. While the study concludes by proposing SSSB limit state criteria for the sample building, the proposed methodology arrives at a reliable definition of limit state criteria for an inventory of RC high‐rise wall buildings under multiple earthquake scenarios. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

基于时变地震损伤模型的多龄期钢框架结构易损性分析

基于时变地震损伤模型提出酸性大气环境作用下多龄期钢框架结构概率地震易损性分析的方法及步骤;考虑服役龄期对钢框架结构抗震性能的影响,分别建立时变概率地震需求模型、时变概率抗震能力模型及时变易损性模型;在概率地震需求分析及概率抗震能力分析的基础上,得到多龄期(20年、30年、40年、50年)钢框架结构的易损性模型及易损性曲线。     

基于复杂网络的建筑物强震下抗毁性估计模型

城市所处的地震危险性环境和城市建筑物的易损性是影响复杂网络建筑物强震环境下抗毁能力的关键因素。由于现阶段对建筑物抗震抗毁能力的评定仍存在一定困难,对建筑物震害程度测评只能通过强震之后建筑物受破坏的程度进行评估,且评估结果不够精准,因此提出基于复杂网络的建筑物抗震能力的评估方法。考虑到地震中的危险性因素,以地面峰值加速度为参数对强震环境下复杂网络建筑物抗毁性进行测评和分析,在此基础上提出对复杂网络下建筑物的防震抗毁能力进行评估的相对建筑物抗震性能指数,并结合建筑物抗震能力评估标准确定其抗震能力水平;再进行仿真实验加以测量,并结合震害经验,证实该方法的有效性。     

The Global Earthquake Vulnerability Estimation System (GEVES): an approach for earthquake risk assessment for insurance applications

For the insurance and reinsurance industries, earthquake loss estimation is crucial not only to adequately price its product but also to manage the accumulation risk in the face of the ever-increasing exposure in highly seismic regions. Changes in the built environment and a continuously evolving earthquake science make it a necessity for the industry to constantly refine earthquake loss estimation models. In particular, it has been recognized for a long time that the vulnerability of buildings to ground shaking is a key parameter in any earthquake risk model. Current methods tend either to rely on the limited historical damage and loss data or on the numerical simulation of the response of individual buildings to the ground-shaking produced by earthquakes. Although both methods have their advantages and pitfalls, we are proposing here a simple solution, using transparent input data, that can be realistically used for the needs of the insurance and reinsurance industry, whether detailed information about the insured structures is available or not. The resulting product is known as GEVES (Global Earthquake Vulnerability Estimation System). It is primarily intended for evaluating the mean damage ratio (MDR) suffered by a portfolio of buildings classified by use, under the action of a given earthquake scenario (i.e. an earthquake of given size at a given distance from the portfolio of buildings). A key assumption was that macroseismic intensity rather than spectral displacement would be the basis of loss estimation. The paper describes the model with emphasis on its structure and the justification for the assumptions made. In addition to a new set of earthquake vulnerability functions, the paper also provides recommendations on some aspects of the earthquake hazard, in particular about how to define macroseismic intensity at the site of interest, for a given earthquake scenario. This paper also discusses validation of the GEVES model against calculated vulnerability approaches, and the treatment of uncertainty within the model.     

Evaluation of a recently proposed record selection and scaling procedure for low‐rise to mid‐rise reinforced concrete buildings and its use for probabilistic risk assessment studies

This paper evaluates a recent record selection and scaling procedure of the authors that can determine the probabilistic structural response of buildings behaving either in the elastic or post‐elastic range. This feature marks a significant strength on the procedure as the probabilistic structural response distribution conveys important information on probability‐based damage assessment. The paper presents case studies that show the utilization of the proposed record selection and scaling procedure as a tool for the estimation of damage states and derivation of site‐specific and region‐specific fragility functions. The method can be used to describe exceedance probabilities of damage limits under a certain target hazard level with known annual exceedance rate (via probabilistic seismic hazard assessment). Thus, the resulting fragility models can relate the seismicity of the region (or a site) with the resulting building performance in a more accurate manner. Under this context, this simple and computationally efficient record selection and scaling procedure can be benefitted significantly by probability‐based risk assessment methods that have started to be considered as indispensable for developing robust earthquake loss models. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

考虑冲刷作用效应桥梁桩基地震易损性分析

冲刷造成桩周土体的剥蚀将会削弱土体对桩基的侧向支撑能力,冲刷效应会对桥梁桩基的地震易损性产生影响,因此有必要对冲刷和地震共同作用下桥梁桩基的易损性进行研究。利用SAP2000软件建立三维桥梁有限元模型,通过非线性时程分析得到桥梁桩基地震响应峰值。采用概率性地震需求分析方法,建立不同冲刷深度下桥梁桩基地震易损性模型,在地震易损性函数假设为对数正态分布函数的基础上,通过回归分析得到概率模型中的参数,进而得到不同冲刷深度下桥梁桩基在不同破坏状态所对应的地震易损性曲线,并分析冲刷深度对桩基破坏概率的影响。研究结果表明:随着冲刷深度的增加,桥梁桩基在地震作用下的破坏概率显著增加。     

An Empirical Method to Assess the Seismic Vulnerability of Existing Buildings Using the HVSR Technique

—?The seismic vulnerability of existing buildings is usually estimated according to procedures based on checklists of main structural features. The relationship with damage is then assessed using experience from past events. An approach used in seismology for the evaluation of site amplification, based on horizontal-to-vertical ratio of weak motion and microtremors, has been applied to the structural field. This methodology provides an alternative, promising tool towards a quick and reliable estimate of seismic vulnerability. The advantages are:¶¶? The measurements are quick, simple and stable. They are non-invasive and do not affect at all, even temporarily, the functions housed in the buildings studied.¶? The site effect and the soil structure interaction are explicitly accounted for in the vulnerability estimate, when they are excluded in the traditional approaches.¶? The relationship with damage is established using meaningful physical parameters related to the construction technology, instead of adimensional, normalised indexes.¶¶ The procedure has been applied to several case histories of buildings damaged in the recent Umbria–Marche earthquake which occurred in Italy in 1997. The same model has been applied to different structures (brick/stone masonry and infilled r.c. frames), on different geological conditions and under very different seismic loads. Using this combined site/building approach, it was possible to explain very sharp variations in the damage pattern.     

川南地区砖混结构房屋典型震害及地震易损性研究

以川南地区为研究区,并以在建造方式上具有明显当地地域特征的砖混结构房屋为研究对象,结合砖混结构房屋建造特点及川南历史地震(如长宁6.0级地震)震害调查结果等,分析砖混结构房屋典型震害特征,统计其在不同烈度下不同破坏等级的比例,采用经验分析法得到初步的易损性矩阵。在此基础上,针对因样本局限性造成的结构在高烈度下破坏比例不全,使实际易损性矩阵缺失的问题,通过插值法,推算高烈度下的破坏比例,补全经验易损性矩阵,拟合出易损性曲线,建立以震害统计为主、数值模拟为辅的砖混结构易损性分析模型;并基于平均震害指数对比分析,对易损性分析的可靠性进行检验。结果表明,构建的易损性矩阵能客观反映川南地区砖混结构房屋的抗震能力,对开展震害预测、灾害损失评估及震害风险评估等工作具有实际应用价值。     

Development of a seismic risk mitigation methodology for public buildings applied to the hospitals of Basilicata region (Southern Italy)

This paper deals with the development of a procedure aimed at defining a seismic risk mitigation strategy for public buildings in terms of prioritization, time required and funds. The procedure is based on a global risk index involving the entire building stock under study thus facilitating an examination of risk variation over time up to its final value. Relationships between the current seismic capacity–demand ratios and the required strengthening costs (cost models) have been developed. Each of the assumed cost models has a different target in terms of capacity–demand ratio to be obtained after strengthening, basically ranging between full retrofit and upgrading. The procedure has been applied to 69 hospital buildings located in Basilicata region for which the vulnerability data was available as a result of a large assessment program set up by the regional government. Priorities have been defined on the basis of seismic capacity, local hazard and number of human beings possibly involved (exposure). The results of different strengthening strategies have been outlined with a special focus on the pros and cons of the upgrading strategy with respect to various retrofit strategies. The procedure may be applied to different categories of public buildings by properly modifying some input parameters and partially redefining criteria for prioritization.     

Performance-based methodology for assessing seismic vulnerability and capacity of buildings

This paper presents a performance-based methodology for the assessment of seismic vulnerability and capacity of buildings. The vulnerability assessment methodology is based on the HAZUS methodology and the improved capacity- demand-diagram method. The spectral displacement (Sd) of performance points on a capacity curve is used to estimate the damage level of a building. The relationship between Sd and peak ground acceleration (PGA) is established, and then a new vulnerability function is expressed in terms of PGA. Furthermore, the expected value of the seismic capacity index (SCev) is provided to estimate the seismic capacity of buildings based on the probability distribution of damage levels and the corresponding seismic capacity index. The results indicate that the proposed vulnerability methodology is able to assess seismic damage of a large number of building stock directly and quickly following an earthquake. The SCev provides an effective index to measure the seismic capacity of buildings and illustrate the relationship between the seismic capacity of buildings and seismic action. The estimated result is compared with damage surveys of the cities of Dujiangyan and Jiangyou in the M8.0 Wenchuan earthquake, revealing that the methodology is acceptable for seismic risk assessment and decision making. The primary reasons for discrepancies between the estimated results and the damage surveys are discussed.