Landslide susceptibility mapping using Bayesian approach in the Sultan Mountains (Akşehir,Turkey)

Landslides cause heavy damage to property and infrastructure, in addition to being responsible for the loss of human lives in many parts of the Turkey. The paper presents GIS-based spatial data analysis for landslide susceptibility mapping in the regions of the Sultan Mountains, West of Akşehir, and central part of Turkey. Landslides occur frequently in the area and seriously affect local living conditions. Therefore, spatial analysis of landslide susceptibility in the Sultan Mountains is important. The relationships between landslide distributions with the 19 landslide affecting parameters were analysed using a Bayesian model. In the study area, 90 landslides were observed. The landslides were randomly subdivided into 80 training landslides and 10 test landslides. A landslide susceptibility map was produced by using the training landslides. The test landslides were used in the accuracy control of the produced landslide susceptibility map. Approximately 9% of the study area was classified as high susceptibility zone. Medium, low and very low susceptibility zones covered 8, 23 and 60% of the study area, respectively. Most of the locations of the observed landslides actually fall into moderate (17.78%) and high (77.78. %) susceptibility zones of the produced landslide susceptibility map. This validates the applicability of proposed methods, approaches and the classification scheme. The high susceptibility zone is along both sides of the Akşehir Fault and at the north-eastern slope of the Sultan Mountains. It was determined that the surface area of the Harlak and Deresenek formations, which have attained lithological characteristics of clayey limestone with a broken and separated base, and where area landslides occur, possesses an elevation of 1,100–1,600 m, a slope gradient of 25°–35° and a slope aspect of 22.5°–157.5° facing slopes.     

Hydrogeochemical study of the Terme and Karakurt thermal and mineralized waters from Kirşehir Area,central Turkey

The Terme and Karakurt thermal resorts are located in the center of Kirşehir city in central Anatolia. Thermal waters with temperatures of 44–60°C are used for central heating and balneologic purposes. Paleozoic rocks of the Kirşehir Massif are the oldest units in the study area. The basement of the Massif comprises Paleozoic metamorphic schist and marbles which partly contain white quartzite layers of a few tens of cm thickness. The metamorphic schists which are cut by granites of Paleocene age are overlain by horizontally bedded conglomerate, sandstone, claystone, and limestone of upper Paleocene-Eocene age. Among the thermal and cold waters collected from the areas of Terme and Karakurt, those from thermal waters are enriched with Ca–HCO₃ and cold waters are of Ca–Mg–HCO₃ type waters. The pH values of samples are 6.31–7.04 for the thermal well waters, 6.41 for thermal spring, 7.25 and 7.29 for the cold waters, and 7.52 for the Hirla lake water. EC values are 917–2,295 μS/cm for the thermal well waters, 2,078 μS/cm for thermal spring, and 471 and 820 μS/cm for the cold springs. The lowest TDS content is from water of T10 thermal well in the Terme area (740.6 mg/l). The hot and cold waters of Terme show very similar ion contents while the Karakurt hot waters at western most parts are characterized by distinct chemical compositions. There is ion exchange in thermal waters from the T5 (5), T6 (6), T12 (7), and T1 (8) wells in the Terme area. The thermal waters show low concentrations of Fe, Mn, Ni, Al, As, Pb, Zn and Cu. Waters in the study area are of meteoric origin, and rainwater percolated downwards through faults and fractures, and are heated by the geothermal gradient, later rising to the surface along permeable zones. δ¹³C_VPDB values measured on dissolved inorganic carbon in samples range from −1.65 to +5.61‰ for thermal waters and from −11.81 to −10.15‰ for cold waters. Carbon in thermal waters is derived from marine carbonates or CO₂ of metamorphic origin while carbon in cold waters originates from freshwater carbonates.     

Assessment of water quality for drinking and irrigation purposes: a case study of Başköy springs (Ağlasun/Burdur/Turkey)

It is important to know the quality of water resources for drinking, domestic and irrigation in the rural area. Because, in recent times, there has been increased demand for water due to population growth and intense agricultural activities, so, hydrogeochemical investigations come into prominence for the groundwater use. The purpose of this paper is to evaluate water quality of Ba?köy springs for both drinking and irrigation purposes. The geochemical processes and quality of springs were followed as seasonal in the study area. In view of geochemical classification, springs are Ca-Mg-HCO₃ water type for both seasons. Comparison of geochemical data shows that majority of the spring samples are suitable for drinking water. On the other hand, chemical indexes of springs with various classifications were calculated for irrigation purposes. According to the classifications (electrical conductivity, total dissolved solids, total hardness, salinity hazard, percent sodium, sodium adsorption ratio, residual sodium carbonate, residual sodium bicarbonate, permeability index, potential salinity, soluble sodium percentage, magnesium ratio, and Kelly’s ratio), Ba?köy springs are suitable for irrigation purposes. However, water quality of Çaygözü spring is different the other springs due to the high electrical conductivity and total dissolved solids. Also, groundwater mineralization processes and rock–water interaction are controlled with bivariate diagrams of major elements.     

The measurement of soil gases and shallow temperature for determination of active faults in a geothermal area: a case study from Ömer–Gecek,Afyonkarahisar (West Anatolia)

Afyonkarahisar is a very important geothermal province of western Anatolia and has low and medium enthalpy geothermal areas. This study has been carried out for the preparation of distribution maps of soil gases (radon and carbon dioxide) and shallow soil temperature and the exploration of permeable tectonic regions associated with geothermal systems and reveal the origins of radon and carbon dioxide gases. The western district of the study area is characterized by the high radon concentration (168.30 kBq/m³), carbon dioxide ratio (0.30%), and soil temperature (21.0 °C) values. Fethibey and Demirçevre faults, which allow the circulation of geothermal fluids, have been detected in the distribution maps of radon, carbon dioxide, and shallow depth temperature and the directions of the curves in these maps correspond to the strikes of Demirçevre faults. The effect of the fault plays an important role in the change of carbon dioxide concentration along the W-E directional geological section prepared to determine the change of soil gas and shallow depth temperature values depending on lithological differences, fault existence, and geothermal reservoir depth. On the other hand, it was determined that Rn²²² concentration and soil temperature changed as a function of geothermal reservoir depth or lithological difference. Tuffs in Köprülü volcano-sedimentary units are the main source of radon due to their higher uranium contents. Besides, the carbon dioxide in Ömer–Gecek soils has geothermal origin because of the highest carbon dioxide content (99.3%) in non-condense gas. The similarities in patterns of soil temperature, radon, and carbon dioxide indicate that the variation in soil temperatures is related to radon and carbon dioxide emissions. It is concluded that soil gas and temperature measurements can be used to determine the active faults in the initial stage of geothermal exploration successfully.     

Effects of sinuosity factor on hydrodynamic parameters estimation in karst systems: a dye tracer experiment from the Beyyayla sinkhole (Eskişehir,Turkey)

The sinuosity factor (SF) is a critical value in karst systems in terms of estimating their hydrodynamic parameters including groundwater velocity, coefficient of dispersion, etc., through dye tracer experiments. SF has been used in a number of different dye tracer experiments in karstic systems to estimate a representative flow path. While knowing SF is crucially important in the estimation of hydrodynamic parameters, its calculation is associated with significant uncertainty due to the complexity of subsurface karstic features. And yet, only a few studies have discussed its uncertainties, which might lead some errors in estimation of hydrodynamic parameters from dye tracer experiment. In this study, dye tracer experiments were conducted in two consecutive years (2003 and 2004) representing low and high flow conditions in the Beyyayla sinkhole (Eski?ehir, Turkey) where the flow path is well known. Uranine was used in experiments as a tracer and QTRACER computer program was used to determine the hydrodynamic properties of the Beyyayla karst system as well as to gain insights into the effects of SF from dye tracer experiments on estimated parameters. The results showed that the breakthrough curve follows a unimodal and a bimodal distribution in low and high flow conditions, respectively. These different distributions stem from the water transport mechanisms, where velocities were calculated as 58.2 and 93.6 m h^?1 during low and high flow conditions observed in a spring emerging from the south side of the studied system. The results also show that the coefficient of dispersion, Reynolds number, and Peclet number increased and longitudinal dispersivity decreased with the higher flow rate. Furthermore, the estimated parameters did not vary with either the flow conditions or the tracer transit time, but they have shown some variations with SF. When SF was increased by 50 %, a change in these parameters was obtained in the range of 50–125 %.     

Soil metal pollution from former Zn–Pb mining assessed by geochemical and magnetic investigations: case study of the Bou Caid area (Tissemsilt,Algeria)

Former zinc and lead mines that have been operating for half a century are located in the massif of Bou Caid (Tissemsilt, Algeria). Hazardous heavy metals emitted from the mines are abundant in the surrounding soil and cause strong metal pollution in the region. This paper investigates the extent of lead and zinc mine activity derived pollution by characterizing both magnetic and geochemical properties of samples collected in the vicinity of the mines. The results of the magnetic study show the coexistence of magnetic minerals such as magnetite, hematite and goethite. Analyses on surface soils and weathered rocks suggest that hematite and goethite have ore-related lithogenic origins. Magnetic susceptibility shows a positive correlation with lead content when present in low-to-medium concentrations (< ~500 mg/kg). At higher lead concentrations, there is no correlation with magnetic susceptibility. The relationship between magnetic susceptibility and zinc content is not straightforward. These observations are explained by the higher affinity of Pb to iron oxides at lower pollution levels and their preferential bonding to carbonates when Pb and Zn contents are extremely high, as demonstrated by Iavazzo et al. (J Geochem Explor 113:56–67, 2012) in a study of former Zn–Pb mine in Morocco. Based on the general features of the spatial maps of field-measured magnetic susceptibility, mass-specific magnetic susceptibility, Pb and Zn contents, it is concluded that field magnetic measurements provide a good qualitative proxy of pollution spread out of the mining galleries, while laboratory measurements afford a more detailed investigation of the links between iron oxides and the main heavy metals in the ore.     

Contrasting tourmaline types from peraluminous granites: a case study from Moslava?ka Gora (Croatia)

Two texturally and chemically distinct types of tourmaline are found inside peraluminous granites of the Moslava?ka Gora, Croatia: nodular tourmaline in the two-mica granite and disseminated tourmaline in the cross-cutting leucogranite dykes. Both tourmaline types belong to alkali tourmaline group, nodular tourmaline being dravite to schorl and disseminated tourmaline corresponding to schorl. Comparison of characteristic parameters of nodular (Nt) and disseminated tourmaline (Dt) shows significant differences in #Fe (0.40?C0.65 for Nt vs. 0.74?C0.85 in Dt) along with variations in the calculated X-site vacancy (0.22?C0.37 pfu in Nt and 0.33?C0.44 in Dt) and ??/(??+Na) ratio (0.23?C0.40 in Nt and 0.34?C0.45 in Dt). Disseminated tourmaline from the MG leucogranites is regarded as an early crystallized magmatic phase, while the interstitial tourmaline from the cores of tourmaline nodules originated from more complex mineralogical and chemical interactions inside the two-mica granite melt. Major element gain (Mg) and loss (Fe, Ca, Na, K) for the ??idealized nodule?? (34 vol. % core + 66 vol. % halo) when compared to the host granite shows that the nodule??s volume is not a completely independent and closed system. Based on the observed characteristics, nodule??s halo can be considered as a ??transitional zone?? between the tourmaline-bearing core and the host granite, texturally and mineralogically related to the host two-mica granite, chemically being an integral part of the nodule??s volume at the same time.     

Evaluation of ANFIS and LR models for seismic rockfalls’ susceptibility mapping: a case study of Firooz Abad-Kojour,Iran, Earthquake (2004)

Seismic rockfall is one of the prevalent geohazards that cause huge losses in the earthquake-stricken areas. In the present research, a model is developed to map susceptibility (occurrence probability) of seismic rockfalls in a regional scale using Logistic Regression (LR) and Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) techniques. In this research, Firooz Abad-Kojour earthquake of 2004 was introduced as the benchmark and the model base. The susceptible zones predicted by LR and ANFIS methods were compared with the database (distribution map) of seismic rockfalls, by which the results revealed a good overlapping between the susceptible zones predicted by the ANFIS and the field observation of rockfalls triggered by this earthquake. Besides, for the statistical evaluation of results obtained by LR and ANFIS models, the verification parameters with high accuracy such as density ratio (Dr), quality sum (Qs), and receiver-operating characteristic curve (ROC) were used. By analyzing the susceptibility maps and considering the Qs index obtained by LR (21.04184) and ANFIS (26.75592), it could be found that the Qs of ANFIS is higher than that of LR. Moreover, based on the obtained value of the area under the curve (AUC) from LR (0.972) and ANFIS (0.984) methods, ANFIS provided a higher accuracy in zonation and susceptibility mapping of rockfalls triggered by Firooz Abad-Kojour earthquake of 2004 compared to the LR method.     

Landslide hazard and risk assessment: a?case study from the Hlohovec–Sered’ landslide area in south-west Slovakia

Landslide hazard or susceptibility assessment is based on the selection of relevant factors which play a role on the slope instability, and it is assumed that landslides will occur at similar conditions to those in the past. The selected statistical method compares parametric maps with the landslide inventory map, and results are then extrapolated to the entire evaluated territory with a final product of landslide hazard or susceptibility map. Elements at risk are defined and analyzed in relation with landslide hazard, and their vulnerability is thus established. The landslide risk map presents risk scenarios and expected financial losses caused by landslides, and it utilizes prognoses and analyses arising from the landslide hazard map. However, especially the risk scenarios for future in a selected area have a significant importance, the literature generally consists of the landslide susceptibility assessment and papers which attempt to assess and construct the map of the landslide risk are not prevail. In the paper presented herein, landslide hazard and risk assessment using bivariate statistical analysis was applied in the landslide area between Hlohovec and Sered?? cities in the south-western Slovakia, and methodology for the risk assessment was explained in detail.     

Asbestiform and non-asbestiform morphologies in a talc and vermiculite mine from the province of Córdoba (Argentina): a case study

In this work, a talc and vermiculite mine from the province of Córdoba (Argentina) was investigated with special emphasis on the occurrence of asbestiform and non-asbestiform phases. The meta-ultramafic rock was studied by a multimethodological approach, complementing field studies with petrographic-mineralogical, compositional and morphological analyses. Samples were examined by stereomicroscopy, polarizing light microscopy, SEM–EDS, XRD, DSC-TGA and FTIR. Complementary, compositional and textural analyses were performed with FE-SEM–EDS and EPMA. Talc-rich veins with a laminar and fibrous appearance were at first recognized. However, the fibrous morphology observed both in the field and by microscopy is due to an apparent habit because of the sample orientation. To avoid erroneous interpretations, studies by secondary electron images (SEM) are fundamental to carrying out this type of analysis. Tremolite was identified in different zones of the outcrop; however, only ~40% of the crystals located in the vermiculite zone have dimensions to be considered as asbestiform fibres in the range of respirable particles. In these types of complex deposits affected by superimposed metamorphic, igneous and deformational events, multimethodological approaches are necessary to develop models of occurrence of asbestiform morphologies that may be applicable to other with similar characteristics.     

Municipal solid waste landfill site selection using geographical information systems: a case study from Çorlu,Turkey

The rapid population growth due to fast urbanization in developing countries leads to environmentally sustainable and efficient management of solid waste. Insufficient solid waste landfill sites, in particular, require new areas because of rapid urbanization. This reveals the need to select appropriate landfill sites, in terms of pollution, that meet the requirements of curbing pollution. In this study, a new solid waste site selection tool was presented for the assessment and selection of areas for a municipal solid waste (MSW) landfill using a combination of point count index and constraint overlaying method with a geographical information system (GIS). For this purpose, factors affecting the site selection tool development were gathered under three groups, namely geological and natural, environmental and social–economical. For the first group, weighting for each criterion—depending upon its relative importance—was assigned, and ratings were given appropriately with their relative magnitude of impact. For the second and third groups, buffer zones were created in order to perform overlay analysis. This tool was used to perform MSW landfill selection of Çorlu District. According to the final map produced with this tool, two areas were identified within the district limits. This procedure was time saving as it was quite easy and did not require too much time and money to collect data. However, besides the usefulness of the procedure, at the final stage of decision-making, some further investigations should also be made.     

Geological mapping by geobotanical and geophysical means: a case study from the Bükk Mountains (NE Hungary)

Geological mapping of an unexposed area can be supported by indirect methods. Among these, the use of mushrooms as geobotanical indicators and the shallow-penetration electromagnetic VLF method proved to be useful in the Bükk Mountains. Mushrooms have not been applied to geological mapping before. Common species like Boletus edulis and Leccinum aurantiacum are correlated with siliciclastic and magmatic formations while Calocybe gambosa is correlated with limestone. The validity of this correlation observed in the eastern part of the Bükk Mts. was controlled on a site where there was an indicated (by the mushrooms only) but unexposed occurrence of siliciclastic rocks not mapped before. The extent and structure of this occurrence were explored with the VLF survey and a trial-and-error method was applied for the interpretation. This case study presented here demonstrates the effectiveness of the combination of these relatively simple and inexpensive methods.     

Evaluation of rock falls in an urban area: the case of Boğaziçi (Erzincan/Turkey)

Disasters caused by events such as earthquake, flooding, rock falls, landslides are often encountered. However, generally, the reasons for the destructive and devastating effects of these nature events are that settlement locations were chosen without site investigation studies, or that available studies were inadequate. Such inadequacies in the field are related to inappropriate settlement location and the resulting damage caused by rock falls. This study evaluated rockfall risk in a settlement that developed in a similar manner. The study was carried out in Bo?aziçi village of Kemah (Erzincan/Turkey), which is located in a very important tectonic zone. The study site is located on the lower sections of an area with very steep cliffs and 50–75° slopes. This cliff, which is the source of rockfalls, has a slope dip of approximately 90°. The cliff comprises 25–30 m high, fractured and cracked basaltic volcanic mass. To determine block size in the study area, scanline survey measurements and block size measurements were performed on blocks that loosened and fell from the cliff face. It was found that block sizes reached 6 m³. Rockfall analyses were performed along the selected profiles using the Rockfall V.4.0 software. Kinetic energy, bounce height, horizontal location of rock end-points, and velocity of the rocks along each section were evaluated separately for each profile. This data were used to produce distribution maps for each profile and the settlement was evaluated in terms of rockfall risk. The results indicate that the study area was at risk of future rockfalls and that it would be appropriate to relocate one part of the settlement.     

A comparison of landslide susceptibility maps produced by logistic regression, multi-criteria decision, and likelihood ratio methods: a case study at ?zmir, Turkey

The main purpose of this study is to compare the use of logistic regression, multi-criteria decision analysis, and a likelihood ratio model to map landslide susceptibility in and around the city of İzmir in western Turkey. Parameters, such as lithology, slope gradient, slope aspect, faults, drainage lines, and roads, were considered. Landslide susceptibility maps were produced using each of the three methods and then compared and validated. Before the modeling and validation, the observed landslides were separated into two groups. The first group was for training, and the other group was for validation steps. The accuracy of models was measured by fitting them to a validation set of observed landslides. For validation process, the area under curvature (AUC) approach was applied. According to the AUC values of 0.810, 0.764, and 0.710 for logistic regression, likelihood ratio, and multi-criteria decision analysis, respectively, logistic regression was determined to be the most accurate method among the other used landslide susceptibility mapping methods. Based on these results, logistic regression and likelihood ratio models can be used to mitigate hazards related to landslides and to aid in land-use planning.     

Landslide susceptibility mapping by frequency ratio and logistic regression methods: an example from Niksar–Resadiye (Tokat,Turkey)

Turkey confronts loss of life and large economic losses due to natural disasters caused by its morphologic structure, geographical placement, and climate characteristics. The Kuzulu (Koyulhisar) landslide, which caused loss of life and property on 17th March 2005, occurred in an area near the country’s most important active fault, the North Anatolian Fault Zone. To mitigate and prevent landslide damages, prediction of landslide susceptibility areas based on probabilistic methods has a great importance. The purpose of this study was to produce a landslide susceptibility map by the logistic regression and frequency ratio methodologies for a 733-km² area near the North Anatolian Fault Zone from the southeast of Niksar to Resadiye in Tokat province. Conditioning parameters, such as elevation, slope gradient, slope aspect, distance to streams, roads, and faults, drainage density, and fault density, were used in the analysis. Before susceptibility analysis, the landslides observed in the area were separated into two groups for use in analysis and verification, respectively. The susceptibility maps produced had five different susceptibility classes such as very low, low, moderate, high, and very high. To test the performance of the susceptibility maps, area under curve (AUC) approach was used. For the logistic regression method, the AUC value was 0.708; while for the frequency rate method, this value was 0.744. According to these AUC values, it could be concluded that the two landslide susceptibility maps obtained were successful.     

Combining textural and geochemical investigations to explore the dynamics of magma ascent during Plinian eruptions: a Somma–Vesuvius volcano (Italy) case study

Trigger mechanisms and syn-eruptive processes of Plinian eruptions are poorly understood especially in the case of mafic powerful events. In the last decades, the combined geochemical and textural studies on volcanic rocks have proven to be fundamental tools for exploring the dynamics of magma ascent in volcanic conduits and for improving our ability to interpret volcano-monitoring signals and assess hazard. In this case study, we quantitatively investigate 2D and 3D micro-textural, geochemical, and isotopic features of pyroclastic rocks erupted during the Pomici di Base Plinian eruption (22 ka), the generally acknowledged first and most powerful event of the Somma–Vesuvius volcano. A peculiar aspect of this eruption is its high intensity that remained stable during the entire Plinian phase despite the strong magma compositional variation towards mafic terms. We infer that the transfer of magma towards the surface was intensified by the occurrence of rapid vesiculation pulses driven by limestone assimilation (skarn recycling) during magma ascent through the carbonatic bedrock. We conclude that limestone assimilation can hence be a syn-eruptive process, able to trigger further gas nucleation with deep impact on the eruption intensity, particularly crucial in the case of mafic/intermediate magma compositions.     

Different ways of landslide geometry interpretation in a process of statistical landslide susceptibility and hazard assessment: Horná Súča (western Slovakia) case study

The article draws a comparison between different ways of landslide geometry interpretation in the scope of the statistical landslide hazard and risk assessment processing. The landslides are included as a major input variable, which are compared with all of the input parametric factors. Based on the above comparison the input data are classified and the final map of landslide susceptibility is constructed. Methodology of multivariate conditional analysis has been used for the construction of final maps. Unique condition units was developed by combination of geological map (lithological units) and slope angle map. Lithological units were derived from geological map and subsequently reclassified into 22 classes. Slope angle map was calculated from digital elevation model (contour map at a scale 1:10,000) and reclassified into nine classes. As a case study, a wide area of Horná Súča (western Slovakia) strongly affected by landsliding (predominantly made of Flysch) has been chosen. Spatial data in the form of parametric maps, as well as final statistical data set were processed in GIS GRASS environment. Four different approaches are used for landslides interpretation: (1) area of landslide body including accumulation zone, (2) area of depletion zone, (3) lines of elongated main scarps, (4) lines of main scarp upper edge. For each approach, a zoning map of landslide susceptibility was compiled and these were compared with each other. Depending on the interpretation approach, the final susceptibility zones are markedly different (in tens of percent).