Effects of Harbor Modification on Crescent City, California��s Tsunami Vulnerability

More damaging tsunamis have impacted Crescent City, California in historic times than any other location on the West Coast of the USA. Crescent City??s harbor has undergone significant modification since the early 20th century, including construction of several breakwaters, dredging, and a 200?×?300?m² small boat basin. In 2006, a M _w 8.3 earthquake in the Kuril Islands generated a moderate Pacific-wide tsunami. Crescent City recorded the highest amplitudes of any tide gauge in the Pacific and was the only location to experience structural damage. Strong currents damaged docks and boats within the small boat basin, causing more than US?$20 million in damage and replacement costs. We examine how modifications to Crescent City??s harbor may have affected its vulnerability to moderate tsunamis such as the 2006 event. A bathymetric grid of the basin was constructed based on US Army Corps of Engineers soundings in 1964 and 1965 before the construction of the small boat basin. The method of splitting tsunamis was used to estimate tsunami water heights and current velocities at several locations in the harbor using both the 1964?C1965 grid and the 2006 bathymetric grid for the 2006 Kuril event and a similar-sized source along the Sanriku coast of Japan. Model velocity outputs are compared for the two different bathymetries at the tide gauge location and at six additional computational sites in the harbor. The largest difference between the two grids is at the small boat basin entrance, where the 2006 bathymetry produces currents over three times the strength of the currents produced by the 1965 bathymetry. Peak currents from a Sanriku event are comparable to those produced by the 2006 event, and within the boat basin may have been higher. The modifications of the harbor, and in particular the addition of the small boat basin, appear to have contributed to the high current velocities and resulting damage in 2006 and help to explain why the 1933 M _w 8.4?C8.7 Sanriku tsunami caused no damage at Crescent City.     

Tsunami Measurements in Bays of Shikotan Island

Bottom pressure gauges deployed in bays of Shikotan Island (South Kuril Islands) recently recorded two tsunamis: the Simushir (Kuril Islands) tsunami of January 13, 2007 generated by a local earthquake with magnitude M _w = 8.1 and the Peruvian tsunami of August 15, 2007 generated by a distant earthquake, M _w = 8.0. The records enabled us to investigate the properties of these two tsunamis and to estimate the effect of the regional and nearshore topography on arriving tsunami waves. Eigen periods and spatial structure of resonant oscillations in particular bays were examined based on results of numerical modeling. Significant amplification of the fundamental (Helmholtz) resonant modes in Malokurilskaya Bay (19 min) and in Krabovaya Inlet (29 min) and some secondary modes was caused by the Simushir tsunami. The considerably different geometry and bottom topography of these bays, located on the inner coast of the island, determine the differences in their eigen periods; the only mutual peak, which was found in both basins, had a period of 5 min and was probably related to the source features. The Peruvian tsunami was clearly recorded by the bottom pressure gauge in Tserkovnaya Bay on the outer (oceanic) coast of the island. Three dominant periods in the tsunami spectrum at this bay were 60, 30 and 19 min; the latter period was found to be related to the fundamental mode of the bay, while the other two periods appear to be associated with the shelf resonant amplification of tsunami waves arriving in the region of the South Kuril Islands. The prevalence of low-frequency components in the observed tsunami spectrum is probably associated with the large extension of the initial source area and faster decay of short period waves during the long trans-oceanic tsunami propagation.     

On the applicability of a universal elastic trench profile

Using thin elastic plate theory and neglecting horizontal applied forces, a universal deflection profile applicable to many oceanic trenches is derived. This theoretical profile is compared with bathymetric profiles from the central Aleutian, Kuril, Bonin, and Mariana trench-outer rise regions. The profiles were corrected for sediment thickness and age variation of the lithosphere. Good agreement between theory and observation is found. The distance from the first point of zero deflection seaward of the trench to the point of maximum height of the outer rise is directly related to the flexural rigidity of the lithosphere. The thickness of the elastic lithosphere is found to vary between 20 and 29 km for the trench profiles considered. The good agreement obtained shows that horizontal forces may be neglected and that the bending lithosphere behaves elastically in the cases considered. The analysis shows that only unreasonably large horizontal forces would affect the universal deflection curve. It is concluded that although the near-surface lithosphere may be subject to brittle fracture, the deeper lithosphere is capable of transmitting elastic stresses as high as 9 kbar.     

Collisional bending of the western Paleo‐Kuril Arc deduced from paleomagnetic analysis and U–Pb age determination

The Paleo‐Kuril Arc in the eastern Hokkaido region of Japan, the westernmost part of the Kuril Arc in the northwestern Pacific region, shows a tectonic bent structure. This has been interpreted, using paleomagnetic data, to be the result of block rotations in the Paleo‐Kuril Arc. To understand the timing and origin of this tectonic bent structure in the Paleo‐Kuril arc‐trench system, paleomagnetic surveys and U–Pb radiometric dating were conducted in the Paleogene Urahoro Group, which is distributed in the Shiranuka‐hill region, eastern Hokkaido. The U–Pb radiometric dating indicated that the Urahoro Group was deposited at approximately 39 Ma. Paleomagnetic analysis of the Urahoro Group suggested that the Shiranuka‐hill region experienced a 28° clockwise rotation with respect to East Asia. The degree of clockwise rotation implied from the Urahoro Group is smaller than that of the underlying Lower Eocene Nemuro Group (62°) but larger than that of the overlying Onbetsu Group (?9°). It is thus suggested that the Shiranuka‐hill region experienced a clockwise rotation of approximately 34° between the deposition of the Nemuro and Urahoro Groups (50–39 Ma), and a 38° clockwise rotation between the deposition of the Urahoro and Onbetsu Groups (39–34 Ma). The origin of the curved tectonic belt of the Paleo‐Kuril Arc was previously explained by the opening of the Kuril Basin after 34 Ma. The age constraint for the rotational motion of the Shiranuka‐hill region in this study contradicts this hypothesis. Consequently, it is suggested that the process of arc–arc collision induced the bent structure of the western Paleo‐Kuril Arc.     

济阳坳陷沾化东区块现今地温场及热历史

根据区内钻井测温和镜质体反射率RO资料，在该区现今地温场分析的基础上，采用岩石圈和盆地尺度相结合的多期热演化模型对该区的热史进行了恢复.结果表明：(1)现今地温梯度为35.8℃/km.孤岛及垦东地区地温梯度较高，大于3℃/km.(2)古新世早期的大地热流值为83.6mW/m²，相当于现代活动裂谷的热流值.自古新世以来，盆地有逐步变冷的趋势，中间有二次回升，但回升的幅度逐渐变小.现今大地热流值为63mW/m²，接近全球大地热流的平均值.(3)该区主力烃源岩经历了持续的受热过程，现今仍处于“生油窗口”内，在深度上具有较大的油气赋存空间，热演化背景对油气生成有利.上述模拟结果可以用渤海湾盆地的裂谷演化模式进行较好的解释，并对胜利油田沾化凹陷的油气勘探工作具有一定的实际意义.     

An investigation of seawater and sediment depth using a prototype airborne electromagnetic instrumentation system – a case study in Broken Bay, Australia

Previous studies using commercial airborne electromagnetic equipment that is not optimized for marine surveying have demonstrated the use of airborne electromagnetic methods for measuring water depth and estimating sediment thickness. A new prototype helicopter time-domain airborne electromagnetic system, SeaTEM(0), is now under development for bathymetric surveying. The first sea trial of the SeaTEM(0) system took place over Broken Bay, New South Wales, Australia, in shallow water up to ∼30 m in depth. Broken Bay was chosen because the separate paleodrainage systems for the Hawkesbury River, Brisbane Water and Pittwater, which join in Broken Bay give rise to paleovalleys infilled with unconsolidated sediments, ranging in thickness between 0 m (bedrock outcrop) and ∼200 m. The survey area also included a tombolo with a beach either side, which provided the opportunity to measure water depth through a surf zone. Sediment thickness and water depth is predicted from stitched layered-earth inversion of data based on a simplified two-layer model that represents seawater and sediment overlying a resistive half-space basement (bedrock). The resulting bathymetric profiles show agreement typically to within ∼±1 m and ∼±0.5 m with known water depths in areas less than 20 and 6 m deep respectively. The inverted depth profile of the second (sediment) layer is noisy; however, the profiles reveal coarse topographic features of paleovalleys to depth limits of ∼60 to 80 m below sea level in 20 to 30 m water depth, as well as resolving bedrock ridges and exposed reefs in shallow waters.     

渤海第三纪裂谷扩张的地球物理分析

根据重磁计算的结果，对渤海第三纪裂谷扩张问题做了分析。在研究中还注意参考了渤海地热流和地壳上地幔电性高导层抬升的研究成果。认为由于深部岩浆的上涌，在渤海及其相邻的陆地共有渤中、渤海湾、庙西、辽东湾和垦利５个较大的地幔柱拱起，它们在华北新生代拗陷区形成了一个走向明显、形态独特、规模较大而又相对集中的地幔柱群     

The lessons from the Simushir earthquakes of November 15, 2006 (M w 8.3) and January 13, 2007 (M w 8.1)

According to S.A. Fedotov’s long-term earthquake forecast, the Middle Kuril Is. has long (since 1965) been a likely location for the next M ≥ 7.7 earthquake, i.e., a seismic gap. The present study integrates seismological, geological, and geophysical data to assess the earthquake potential of the gap prior to November 15, 2006. Seismological data were used to carry out a comparative analysis of 3D seismic energy density for three zones of the Kuril region. The density for the Middle Kuril Is. turned out to be twice as small as that for the North Kuril Is. and nearly six times as small as that for the South Kurils. Various parameters of the seismic process for the Kuril region have been estimated in quantitative terms. It is shown that the rate of completely reported (M ≥ 6) earthquakes occurring down to 70 km depth in the Middle Kuril Is. is approximately three times as small as that for the entire Kuril arc. Increased heat flow was recorded there (up to 100 mW/m²). The top of the high conductivity layer is shallower (at a depth of 100 km). The trends of major faults and other seismotectonic features have been taken into account. Based on these data (prior to November 15, 2006), the previous conclusion about the low seismic activity of the Middle Kuril Is. was corroborated. Two great earthquakes occurred in the region on November 15, 2006 (M _w = 8.3) and January 13, 2007 (M _w = 8.1) with subsequent tsunami waves. The erroneous inference as to low seismic activity was related to the fact that the seismic cycle in the Middle Kuril Is. may be as long as 150–200 years. We come to the conclusion that an analysis of the level of seismic activity for the region should start with the construction of standardized recurrence curves and determining the magnitude of the maximum possible earthquake.     

渤海湾盆地冀中坳陷现今地热特征

渤海湾盆地冀中坳陷是我国最典型的潜山油气藏富集区.本文借助117口钻井地层测温资料和45块实测岩石热导率数据系统研究了冀中坳陷现今地温梯度、大地热流、热岩石圈厚度、岩石圈热结构等地热特征参数.研究表明,冀中坳陷0~3000m统一深度现今地温梯度为20.8~41.0℃·km-1,平均值为31.6℃·km-1,比未校正值减小1~3℃·km-1;现今大地热流介于48.7~79.7mW·m-2,平均值为59.2mW·m-2.平面上,冀中坳陷现今地温梯度和热流由西向东(从盆地边缘向内部)逐渐增大,并且凸起区地温梯度和热流相对较高,而凹陷区则偏低,与基底地形起伏具有很好的对应关系.同时,冀中坳陷腹部高热流凸起区广泛分布地热田.冀中坳陷现今热岩石圈厚度为98~109km,其岩石圈热结构为一典型的"冷壳热幔"型.本研究不仅对冀中坳陷油气勘探与地热能开发具有重要的指导意义,而且为深部岩石圈研究(华北克拉通破坏科学问题)提供了新依据.     

The long-term earthquake prediction for the Kuril–Kamchatka island arc for the April 2016 through March 2021 period,its modification and application; the Kuril–Kamchatka seismicity before and after the May 24, 2013, M 8.3 deep-focus earthquake in the Sea of Okhotsk

This paper discusses results from ongoing research on long-term earthquake prediction for the Kuril–Kamchatka island arc based on the concepts of seismic gaps and the seismic cycle. We developed a forecast for the next 5 years (April 2016 through March 2021) for all segments of the earthquake-generating zone along the Kuril–Kamchatka arc. The 20 segments of the arc were analyzed to develop forecasts of the appropriate phases of the seismic cycle, a normalized parameter of the rate of small earthquakes (A₁₀), the magnitudes of moderate earthquakes that are expected with probabilities of 0.8, 0.5, and 0.15, the maximum expected magnitudes, and the probabilities of great (M ≥ 7.7) earthquakes. We discuss the seismic process in the Kuril–Kamchatka earthquake-generating zone before and after the deep-focus May 24, 2013 M 8.3 earthquake in the Sea of Okhotsk. The results corroborate the high seismic hazard in the area of Petropavlovsk-Kamchatskii and the urgent need for continuing with and expanding the ongoing work of seismic retrofitting and seismic safety enhancement. We quote practical results from applications of the method during 30 years.     

唐山地震热力源的研究

本文从应力场角度分析了1976年唐山地震发生的可能力源。震前唐山地区除受有太平洋板块和印度板块的作用外,主要受有附近的热力源的作用。以渤中为中心的下辽河—渤中—黄骅上地幔隆起的高温区和沧东断裂水平温度梯度带的存在,使唐山地区位于热应力集中区。本文根据已有的观测结果,提出了将温度变化区简化为圆形、狭长矩形和椭圆形等三个力学模式,分别求得它们的解析解,并计算了它们的热应力场。结果表明:在增温区以内,正应力都是压应力,剪应力很小。在增温区以外,法向应力为压应力,周向应力为张应力,水平剪应力较大,但各个应力分量随着距离增加而衰减,只在增温区的边缘地带达到最大值,其数值有几百巴的数量级。唐山恰好位于该增温区的边缘地带,表明热力源是促使唐山地震发生的重要原因。 除唐山地震外,华北地区近年发生的几个大地震如邢台、河间、渤海、海城地震,以及1983年发生的菏泽地震,均位于热应力的高值地带,这些地震的孕育和发生显然也与热力源的作用有关。      

Paleotectonic structures and their influence on recent seismo-tectonics in the south Kuril subduction zone

Abstract Bathymetric data from south of Hokkaido obtained during a cruise of R/V Hakuho-Maru are summarized, and their correlation with earthquake occurrence is discussed. There are structural lineations on the seaward slope of the Kuril Trench, oblique to the Kuril Trench axis and parallel to the magnetic lineations in the Pacific plate. The structural lineations comprise horst-grabens generated by normal faulting. This suggests that Cretaceous tectonic structures originating at the spreading centre affect present seismotectonics around the trench axis. The structural-magnetic relation is compared to the case of the Japan Trench. North-east of the surveyed area, there are two major fracture zones (Nosappu Fracture Zone and Iturup Fracture Zone) that divide the oceanic plate into three segments. If the fracture zones (FZ) and the zone of paleo-mechanical weakness, represented by magnetic lineations, can control the direction of normal faults at a trench, the extent of the resulting topographic roughness on the seaward slope of the trench would be different across an FZ because of the differences in ages. By studying recent large earthquakes occurring in the south Kuril region, it is shown that several main-aftershock distributions for large earthquakes in this region are bounded by the Nosappu FZ and the Iturup FZ. Two models (Barrier model and Rebound model) are presented to interpret earthquake occurrence near the south Kuril Islands. The Barrier model explains seismic boundaries seen in several examples for earthquake occurrence in the south Kuril regions. The fracture zone forming the boundary of two segments with different magnetic lineations is also the boundary of two different normal fault systems on their ocean bottom, and the difference in sea-bottom roughness between two normal fault systems should affect the seismic coupling at a plate interface. Due to the difference of seismic coupling, earthquake occurrence is controlled by an FZ and then the FZ acts as a seismic boundary (Barrier model). Existing normal faults created by plate bending of subducting oceanic plate should rebound after its subduction (Rebound model). This rebound of normal faults may cause intraplate earthquakes with a high-angle reverse-fault mechanism such as the 1994 Shikotan Earthquake. The energy released by an intraplate earthquake generated by normal-fault rebounding is not directly related to that of interplate earthquakes such as low-angle thrust earthquakes. It is a reason why large earthquakes occurred in the same region during a relatively short period.     

Generation of Tsunamis in the Okhotsk Sea Caused by the 1994 Great Kuril Earthquake

—The 1994 great Kuril earthquake generated an unusual tsunami that was observed at five tide gauges on the Hokkaido coast of the Okhotsk Sea. The tsunami arrived at tide gauges considerably earlier than the expected time, calculated on the assumption that the tsunami source area coincides with the aftershock area. Numerical simulation of the tsunami shows that the first wave of the tsunami in the Okhotsk Sea was generated by the significant subsidence north of the Kuril Islands. It is assumed that this subsidence is due to the earthquake. The coseismic deformation area of the ocean bottom extended over a vastly larger area than the aftershock area or the rupture area for the Kuril earthquake. The numerical simulation also shows that the tsunami observed at Utoro during the first hour after the origin time of the earthquake was mainly generated by the horizontal movement of the sloping ocean bottom near the Shiretoko Peninsula.     

The VolSatView information system for Monitoring the Volcanic Activity in Kamchatka and on the Kuril Islands

Kamchatka and the Kuril Islands are home to 36 active volcanoes with yearly explosive eruptions that eject ash to heights of 8 to 15 km above sea level, posing hazards to jet planes. In order to reduce the risk of planes colliding with ash clouds in the north Pacific, the KVERT team affiliated with the Institute of Volcanology and Seismology of the Far East Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences (IV&S FEB RAS) has conducted daily satellite-based monitoring of Kamchatka volcanoes since 2002. Specialists at the IV&S FEB RAS, Space Research Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences (SRI RAS), the Computing Center of the Far East Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences (CC FEB RAS), and the Far East Planeta Center of Space Hydrometeorology Research (FEPC SHR) have developed, introduced into practice, and were continuing to refine the VolSatView information system for Monitoring of Volcanic Activity in Kamchatka and on the Kuril Islands during the 2011–2015 period. This system enables integrated processing of various satellite data, as well as of weather and land-based information for continuous monitoring and investigation of volcanic activity in the Kuril–Kamchatka region. No other information system worldwide offers the abilities that the Vol-SatView has for studies of volcanoes. This paper shows the main abilities of the application of VolSatView for routine monitoring and retrospective analysis of volcanic activity in Kamchatka and on the Kuril Islands.     

Sensitivity analysis of a morphodynamic modelling system applied to a coastal lagoon inlet

This work investigates the recent morphological changes at the inlet of a complex coastal system (Ria de Aveiro lagoon, Portugal). This study was carried out using bathymetric data analysis and numerical simulations obtained with the 2DH morphodynamic modelling system MORSYS2D. The present simulations considered only tidal forcing, and a sensitivity analysis was performed by tuning the formula used to compute the sediment transports. A non-uniform sediment grain size distribution for the Ria de Aveiro inlet is considered in the numerical simulations, based on surveys performed in this area. The model results are analysed to assess if they resemble the observed trends of erosion and deposition, as calculated from bathymetric data. A quantitative analysis of the differences between the bathymetric changes obtained through surveys and the numerical results over a period of 3 years considering different sediment transport formulations shows that the formulations of Ackers and White (1973) and Engelund and Hansen (1967) are the ones that best describe the morphodynamic changes driven by tides in the Ria de Aveiro inlet.     

The Japan Trench and its juncture with the Kuril Trench: cruise results of the Kaiko project, Leg 3

This paper presents the results of a detailed survey combining Seabeam mapping, gravity and geomagnetic measurements as well as single-channel seismic reflection observations in the Japan Trench and the juncture with the Kuril Trench during the French-Japanese Kaiko project (northern sector of the Leg 3) on the R/V “Jean Charcot”. The main data acquired during the cruise, such as the Seabeam maps, magnetic anomalies pattern, and preliminary interpretations are discussed. These new data cover an area of 18,000 km² and provide for the first time a detailed three-dimensional image of the Japan Trench. Combined with the previous results, the data indicate new structural interpretations. A comparative study of Seabeam morphology, single-channel and reprocessed multichannel records lead to the conclusion that along the northern Japan Trench there is little evidence of accretion but, instead, a tectonic erosion of the overriding plate. The tectonic pattern on the oceanic side of the trench is controlled by the creation of new normal faults parallel to the Japan Trench axis, which is a direct consequence of the downward flexure of the Pacific plate. In addition to these new faults, ancient normal faults trending parallel to the N65° oceanic magnetic anomalies and oblique to the Japan trench axis are reactivated, so that two directions of normal faulting are observed seaward of the Japan Trench. Only one direction of faulting is observed seaward of the Kuril Trench because of the parallelism between the trench axis and the magnetic anomalies. The convergent front of the Kuril Trench is offset left-laterally by 20 km relative to those of the Japan Trench. This transform fault and the lower slope of the southernmost Kuril Trench are represented by very steep scarps more than 2 km high. Slightly south of the juncture, the Erimo Seamount riding on the Pacific plate, is now entering the subduction zone. It has been preceded by at least another seamount as revealed by magnetic anomalies across the landward slope of the trench. Deeper future studies will be necessary to discriminate between the two following hypothesis about the origin of the curvature between both trenches: Is it due to the collision of an already subducted chain of seamounts? or does it correspond to one of the failure lines of the America/Eurasia plate boundary?     

千岛群岛大地震与中国东北地区地震相关性的探讨

在分析3次千岛群岛大地震对应东北地区地震的基础上,讨论了在地质构造背景下千岛群岛大地震引起板块俯冲与我国东北地区地震的相关性.结果表明,千岛群岛发生7级以上地震对应东北地区地震有较强相关性;千岛群岛在大地震破裂过程中产生的俯冲作用自东向西对东北板块产生挤压作用,东北地震区相继发生了浅源地震;千岛群岛地区发生地震时,东北...     

Adaptation strategy of bivalve Modiolus modiolus from upwelling regions of the Kuril Islands shelf (Sea of Okhotsk) to heavy metal effects

Cd, Cu, Fe, Mn, Ni, Pb, Zn concentration in the organs (muscle, gonads, mantle, gills, digestive gland, kidney) of mussel Modiolus modiolus was studied. Mussels were collected from shelf upwelling sites of Kuril Is. Sea of Okhotsk (104 and 85 m) and, for comparison, coastal high contaminated and clean sites (Peter the Great Bay, Sea of Japan). It was found that mussels from shelf upwelling regions accumulated unusually high Cd concentration in studied organs, excepting digestive gland. Shelf mussels have evolved passive adaptation to elevated level of ambient heavy metals (distribution of heavy metal load between all organs, especially, muscle). In contrast, mussels from high contaminated sites have evolved active adaptation (strong regulation of metal concentration in the organs at the maximal permissible concentration due to increased kidney function). We supported that under natural condition, passive adaptation of aquatic organisms to increased ambient metal level have been evolved only under constant low-water temperature.     

渤海陆缘地震的力学特征和成因

渤海陆缘是华北强震活动区,如1966年的邢台震群,1967年的河间地震,1969年的渤海地震,1975年的海城地震,1976年的唐山震群和1983年的菏泽地震,都是在该区发生的。显然,深入研究该地区的构造运动和地震成因是有重要科学意义的。本文拟从应力场角度进行研究。     

共和盆地恰卜恰地热区现今地热特征

恰卜恰地热区位于青海共和盆地的东北部,是我国重要的具有干热岩地热资源勘探开发潜力的地区之一.自2013年起,不同的研究者针对该区开展了大量地球物理探测工作,然而现今地热场的研究相对较少.本文基于4口干热岩钻孔的稳态测温资料和81块岩芯样品的热导率测试数据,计算了研究区4个大地热流值.研究结果表明：研究区基底花岗岩层现今地温梯度为39.0~45.2℃·km^-1,平均值为41.3℃·km^-1,大地热流值介于93.3~111.0 mW·m^-2之间,平均值为102.2 mW·m^-2,与我国主要的克拉通型盆地（如柴达木盆地、四川盆地和鄂尔多斯盆地）和新生代裂谷型盆地（如渤海湾盆地）相比,该区属于青藏高原高热流背景下的局部异常高地温梯度和高大地热流区.分析认为,研究区高地热异常可能暗示共和盆地浅部（20 km以浅）存在局部异常热源体（岩浆囊）.