全球海洋环流模式中上层海洋对表面强迫的响应和调整Ⅱ.年代际变率

利用一个较高分辨率的全球海洋环流模式在COADS 1945～1993年逐月平均资料的强迫下对海温和环流场进行了模拟,分析了北太平洋海温和环流场的年代际变化特征,同时诊断了1976-77年代际跃变过程中海温场变化的机制.模式模拟出了北太平洋海温年代际异常的主要模态以及1976-77年跃变前后的演变特征,模拟的北太平洋中部、加州沿岸和KOE区的海温异常的强度和演变趋势均和观测比较一致;同时,模式重现了分别始于20世纪70和80年代的中纬度海温异常信号沿等密度面向低纬地区的两次潜沉过程.在表层,流场的异常主要表现为与风应力异常基本符合Ekman关系的一个异常海洋涡旋,而整个上层海洋平均的流场异常则表现为两个海洋涡旋的异常,其中副热带海洋涡旋的异常的强度要显著于副极地海洋涡旋的异常,而副极地海洋涡旋异常出现的时间比副热带海洋涡旋晚3a左右的时间.对1976-77年前后3个区域上层海温各贡献项的诊断结果表明,北太平洋中部变冷主要是水平平流和热通量异常贡献的结果;而加州沿岸变暖主要归因于热通量的贡献;在KOE区,垂直平流、热通量和水平平流三者都起了重要作用,其中水平平流异常对这一区域海温年代际跃变出现的时间起了至关重要的作用.     

北太平洋海表温度及各贡献因子的变化

采用1958年1月至2007年12月SODA海洋上层温度的月平均资料,基于海温变化方程和统计分析方法,分析了北太平洋海表面温度(SST)异常特征及各局地因子贡献比例的变化。结果表明,伴随着1976/1977风场最强中心位置的南北移动,形成了两个北太平洋SST年际-年代际变化的异常中心:一个是位于30°N附近的副热带海盆内区,SST异常主要受风应力强度的主导;一个是位于40°N附近的副热带和副极地环流交汇区,SST异常主要受风应力旋度的位置即风场位置的影响。在副热带海盆内区,最强降温发生在1978-1982年,SST异常的主要局地贡献因子为海表热通量和经向平流,二者所占比例和约为50%~60%,均为同相增温或降温作用,余项所占比例约为20%~50%。在副热带和副极地环流交汇区,海盆内区和西部边界区的SST异常的跃变时间同为1975年,但是内区的垂直混合项的跃变时间早于西部5年左右。SST异常的主要贡献因子为海表热通量和经向平流,但在1983-1988年海温强降温期间,经向平流项贡献大于海表热通量项的贡献。两个区域的垂直混合项均为降温贡献,虽然量值小却显示出很强的年代际变化信号。平流项中经向平流最大,垂直平流最小。     

Four Decadal Ocean-Atmosphere Modes in the North Pacific Revealed by Various Analysis Methods

Various statistical methods (empirical orthogonal function (EOF), rotated EOF, singular value decomposition (SVD), principal oscillation pattern (POP), complex EOF (CEOF) and joint CEOF) were applied to low-pass filtered (>7 years) sea surface temperature (SST), subsurface temperature and 500 hPa geopotential height in order to reveal standing and propagating features of decadal variations in the North Pacific. Four decadal ocean-atmosphere covariant modes were found in this study. The first mode is the well-known ENSO-like mode associated with the “Pacific-North American” atmospheric pattern, showing SST variations reversed between the tropics and the extratropics. In the western tropical Pacific, subsurface temperature variations were found to be out of phase with the SST variations. The other three modes are related to the oceanic general circulation composed of the subtropical gyre, the Alaskan gyre and the subpolar gyre, respectively. The 1988/89 event in the northern North Pacific was found to be closely associated with the subtropical gyre mode, and the atmospheric pattern associated with this mode is the Arctic Oscillation. An upper ocean heat budget analysis suggests that the surface net heat flux and mean gyre advection are important to the Alaskan gyre mode. For the subpolar gyre mode, the mean gyre advection, local Ekman pumping and surface net heat flux play important roles. Possible air-sea interactions in the North Pacific are also discussed. The oceanic signals for these decadal modes occupy a thick layer in the North Pacific, so that accumulated heat content may in turn support long-term climate variations. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

冬季黑潮延伸体海表温度对阿留申低压活动的双周期响应

Based on our previous work, the winter sea surface temperature(SST) in the Kuroshio Extension(KE) region showed significant variability over the past century with periods of ~6 a between 1930 and 1950 and ~10 a between1980 and 2009. How the activity of the Aleutian Low(AL) induces this dual-period variability over the two different timespans is further investigated here. For the ~6 a periodicity during 1930–1950, negative wind stress curl(WSC)anomalies in the central subtropical Pacific associated with an intensified AL generate positive sea surface height(SSH) anomalies. When these wind-induced SSH anomalies propagate westwards to the east of Taiwan, China two years later, positive velocity anomalies appear around the Kuroshio to the east of Taiwan and then the mean advection via this current of velocity anomalies leads to a strengthened KE jet and thus an increase in the KE SST one year later. For the ~10 a periodicity during 1980–2009, a negative North Pacific Oscillation-like dipole takes2–3 a to develop into a significant positive North Pacific Oscillation-like dipole, and this process corresponds to the northward shift of the AL. Negative WSC anomalies associated with this AL activity in the central North Pacific are able to induce the positive SSH anomalies. These oceanic signals then propagate westward into the KE region after 2–3 a, favoring a northward shift of the KE jet, thus leading to the warming of the KE SST. The feedbacks of the KE SST anomaly on the AL forcing are both negative for these two periodicities. These results suggest that the dual-period KE SST variability can be generated by the two-way KE-SST-AL coupling.     

Interdecadal climate regime dynamics in the North Pacific Ocean: theories, observations and ecosystem impacts

Basin-scale variations in oceanic physical variables are thought to organize patterns of biological response across the Pacific Ocean over decadal time scales. Different physical mechanisms can be responsible for the diverse basin-scale patterns of sea-surface temperature (SST), mixed-layer depth, thermocline depth, and horizontal currents, although they are linked in various ways. In light of various theories and observations, we interpret observed basinwide patterns of decadal-scale variations in upper-ocean temperatures. Evidence so far indicates that large-scale perturbations of the Aleutian Low generate temperature anomalies in the central and eastern North Pacific through the combined action of net surface heat flux, turbulent mixing and Ekman advection. The surface-forced temperature anomalies in the central North Pacific subduct and propagate southwestwards in the ocean thermocline to the subtropics but apparently do not reach the equator. The large-scale Ekman pumping resulting from changes of the Aleutian Low forces western-intensified thermocline depth anomalies that are approximately consistent with Sverdrup theory. These thermocline changes are associated with SST anomalies in the Kuroshio/Oyashio Extension that are of the same sign as those in the central North Pacific, but lagged by several years. The physics of the possible feedback from the SST anomalies to the Aleutian Low, which might close a coupled ocean–atmosphere mode of decadal variability, is poorly understood and is an area of active research. The possible responses of North Pacific Ocean ecosystems to these complicated physical patterns is summarized.     

Coupled seasonal variability in the South China Sea

The present study documents the relationship between seasonal variations in sea surface temperature (SST) and precipitation in the South China Sea (SCS) region. There are strong interactions between the atmosphere and ocean in the seasonal variations of SST and precipitation. During the transition to warm and cold seasons, the SST tendency is primarily contributed by net heat flux dominated by shortwave radiation and latent heat flux with a complementary contribution from ocean advection and upwelling. The contribution of wind-driven oceanic processes depends on the region and is more important in the northern SCS than in the southern SCS. During warm and cold seasons, local SST forcing contributes to regional precipitation by modulating the atmospheric stability and lower-level moisture convergence. The SST difference between the SCS and the western North Pacific influences the convection over the SCS through its modulation of the circulation pattern.     

The Kuroshio Extension System: Its Large-Scale Variability and Role in the Midlatitude Ocean-Atmosphere Interaction

The Kuroshio Extension and its recirculation gyre form an interconnected dynamic system. The system is located at a crossroads where the meso-scale and large-scale oceanic variability are highest, and where the ocean-atmosphere interaction is most active in the Pacific Ocean outside of the tropics. Following a brief review of the mean flow and meso-scale eddy variability, this study describes in detail the large-scale structural change (an oscillation between an elongated and a contracted state) observed in the Kuroshio Extension system. Causes for this structural change are explored next, and it is argued that the basin-wide external wind forcing and the nonlinear dynamics associated with the inertial recirculation gyre are both important factors. Data analysis results are reviewed and presented, emphasizing that the surface Kuroshio Extension is not simply a well-mixed layer passively responding to heat flux anomalies imposed by the atmosphere. It is argued that large-scale changes in the Kuroshio Extension system influence the surface ocean heat balance and generate wintertime sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies through both horizontal geostrophic heat advection and re-emergence to the surface mixed layer of sequestered mode water temperature anomalies. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

吕宋海峡西部深海盆内孤立波潜标观测研究

Using a net surface heat flux （Qnet） product obtained from the objectively analyzed air-sea fluxes （OAFlux） project and the international satellite cloud climatology project （ISCCP）, and temperature from the simple ocean data assimilation （SODA）, the seasonal variations of the air-sea heat fluxes in the northwestern Pa cific marginal seas （NPMS） and their roles in sea surface temperature （SST） seasonality are studied. The seasonal variations of Qnet, which is generally determined by the seasonal cycle of latent heat flux （LH）, are in response to the advection-induced changes of SST over the Kuroshio and its extension. Two dynamic regimes are identified in the NPMS： one is the area along the Kuroshio and its extension, and the other is the area outside the Kuroshio. The oceanic thermal advection dominates the variations of SST and hence the sea-air humidity plays a primary role and explains the maximum heat losing along the Kuroshio. The heat transported by the Kuroshio leads to a longer period of heat losing over the Kuroshio and its Extension. Positive anomaly of heat content corresponds with the maximum heat loss along the Kuroshio. The oceanic advection controls the variations of heat content and hence the surface heat flux. This study will help us understand the mechanism controlling variations of the coupled ocean-atmosphere system in the NPMS. In the Kuroshio region, the ocean current controls the ocean temperature along the main stream of the Ku roshio, and at the same time, forces the air-sea fluxes.     

Seasonal variation of atmospheric coupling with oceanic mesoscale eddies in the North Pacific Subtropical Countercurrent

This study investigated the seasonal variation in the atmospheric response to oceanic mesoscale eddies in the North Pacific Subtropical Countercurrent (STCC) and its mechanism, based on satellite altimetric and reanalysis datasets. Although mesoscale eddy in the study area is more active in summer, the sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly associated with mesoscale eddies is more intense and dipolar in winter, which is largely due to the larger background SST gradient. Similarly, the impact of the oceanic eddy on sea surface wind speed and heat flux is strongest in winter, whereas its effect on precipitation rate is more significant in summer. The study revealed that the SST gradient in STCC could impact the atmosphere layer by up to 800 hPa (900 hPa) in boreal winter (summer) through the dominant vertical mixing mechanism. Moreover, the intensity of the SST gradient causes such seasonal variation in mesoscale air-sea coupling in the study region. In brief, a stronger (weaker) background SST gradient field in wintertime (summertime) leads to a larger (smaller) eddy-induced SST anomaly, thus differently impacting atmosphere instability and transitional kinetic energy flux over oceanic eddies, leading to seasonal variation in mesoscale air-sea coupling intensity.     

Equatorward Spreading of a Passive Tracer with Application to North Pacific Interdecadal Temperature Variations

A simulation is conducted with a realistic ocean general circulation model to investigate the three dimensional spreading of a passive tracer prescribed at the sea surface with the same distribution as the interdecadal sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies observed in the North Pacific. The tracers reaching the equator have the same sign as the major oval-shaped SST anomaly pattern in the central North Pacific but with a magnitude reduced less than 10% of the mid-latitude SST anomaly. The mixing both with the water containing SST anomalies of an opposite sign off the west coast of North America, and with the Southern Hemisphere thermocline water both contribute to the reduced equatorial amplitude. On the way to the equator in the southwestern part of the subtropical gyre, the subducted water is replenished by tracers leaking from the recirculation region to the north. The simulated passive tracer field in the subsurface layers agrees with the observed interdecadal temperature anomalies, suggesting the relevance of the processes studied here to the thermocline variability in the real North Pacific.     

Interdecadal temperature variations in the North Pacific Central Mode Water simulated by an OGCM

The North Pacific Central Mode Water (CMW) is a water mass that forms in the Kuroshio-Oyashio Extension (KOE) region with characteristic low potential vorticity. Recent studies have suggested that the CMW, as low potential vorticity water, plays an important role in the adjustment of the subtropical gyre and subsurface variability on decadal to interdecadal timescales. We have forced a realistic ocean general circulation model (OGCM) with observed wind stress and sea surface temperature (SST) forcing to investigate the decadal variations of the CMW. Associated with the large atmospheric changes after the mid-1970s climate regime shift, the upper thermocline experiences a cooling as negative SST anomalies in the central North Pacific are subducted and advected southward. In addition to this thermodynamic response, the CMW’s path shifts anomalously eastward in response to anomalous Ekman pumping. This eastward shift of the core of the CMW produces a lowering of the isotherms, and a consequent warming, on the path of the CMW core. This warming partially counteracts the cooling associated with subducted surface anomalies, and it may be responsible for the reduced temperature variations at the climatological position of the CMW when both anomalous wind and heat fluxes are given. Lateral induction across the sloping bottom of the winter mixed layer in the KOE is critical to the formation of the low potential vorticity CMW. Coarse resolution models, which are widely used in climate modeling, underestimate the horizontal gradient of the mixed layer depth and form only a weak CMW or none at all. We have conducted a coarse resolution experiment with the same OGCM, showing that the subsurface response is much reduced. In particular, there is no dynamic warming in the CMW and the thermodynamic response to the SST cooling dominates. The resultant total response differs substantially from that in the finer resolution run where a strong CMW forms. This sensitivity to the model resolution corroborates the important dynamical role that the CMW may play with its distinctive low potential vorticity character and calls for its improved simulation.     

Long-Term Variability of North Pacific Subtropical Mode Water in Response to Spin-Up of the Subtropical Gyre

The Meteorological Research Institute's ocean general circulation model (MRI-OGCM) has been used to investigate the temperature variability of the North Pacific Subtropical Mode Water (NPSTMW) over a time series longer than 5 years via the spin-up of the subtropical gyre. Besides an interannual variation, the wintertime sea surface temperature in the area where the NPSTMW is formed, and the temperature of the NPSTMW itself, both change remarkably in a >5-year time scale. An analysis of heat budgets showed that the long-term changes in NPSTMW temperature are due mainly to a leading advection of heat by the Kuroshio Extension and compensating surface heat flux. As a result of a dynamical adjustment to the wind stress fields, the transports of the Kuroshio and the Kuroshio Extension increased in the mid 1970s with a lag of 3 years after the wind stress curl in the central North Pacific. The increased heat advection by the Kuroshio Extension induces a warming in the mixed layer in the NPSTMW formation area, followed by a warming of the NPSTMW itself. Both these warming actions increase the heat release to the atmosphere. These results imply that the surface heat flux over the Kuroshio Extension area varies in response to the change in the ocean circulation through the spin-up of the subtropical gyre. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Analysis of the global relationship of biennial variation of sea surface temperature and air-sea heat flux using satellite data

We investigated the phase difference and the cross correlation coefficient between the band-pass filtered biennial variations of sea surface temperature (SST) and air-sea heat flux estimated by the monthly mean 2°×2° satellite data of Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) and Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I) from July 1987 to June 1991. Judging from the phase difference, it can be determined whether the biennial variation of SST is controlled by local thermal air-sea interaction or oceanic processes of horizontal transport. When the local air-sea heat flux controls the biennial variation of SST, the phase of SST advances /2 (6 months) against that of the air-sea heat flux. In contrast, when the biennial variation of SST is controlled by the oceanic process, the phase difference between the SST and the air-sea heat flux becomes 0 or (12 months). In this case, two types of the phase differences are determined, depending on which variability of SST and air-sea heat flux is larger. The close thermal air-sea interaction is noticeable in the tropics and in the western boundary current region. The phase difference of /2 appears mainly in the north Pacific, the southeast Indian Ocean, and the western tropical Pacific; zero in the eastern tropical Pacific and the northeast and equatorial Atlantic; and that of in the central equatorial Pacific and north of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) of the Atlantic. Phase differences of 0, , or /2 are possible in the western boundary current regions. This fact indicates that each current plays a different role to the biennial variation of SST. It is inferred that SST anomalies in the tropics are mutually correlated, and the process in which marked SST anomalies in the tropics are transferred to the remote area was probed. In the equatorial Pacific, the SST anomaly is transferred by the long planetary wave. On the other hand, it is found from the phase relationship and the horizontal correlation of SST that the SST anomaly in the central and western equatorial Pacific is connected through atmospheric mediation. It is suggested that the biennial variation of SST in the eastern Indian Ocean is affected by heat transport due to the Indonesian throughflow from the western tropical Pacific. It is found that the mentioned pattern of the interannual variation of SST in the tropical Atlantic as a dipole is not tenable.     

PDO的三维空间结构和时间演变特征

利用再分析次表层海温资料和CCSM3模式的1870-1999年130 a模拟试验的结果,分析了北太平洋年代际变化(PDO)的三维空间结构和时间演变特征.结果表明,CCSM3模式较好的模拟了北太平洋年代际变化的主要特征,对再分析资料和模式结果的分析都表明从北太平洋表层至次表层的中层,年代际变化是非常显著的,PDO不仅仅局...     

Upper ocean heat content and atmospheric anomaly fields in the off-equatorial North Pacific related to ENSO

We have investigated interannual-scale variations of oceanic and atmospheric anomaly fields, such as upper ocean heat content (OHC), sea surface temperature (SST), latent heat flux (LHF) through the sea surface, sea level pressure (SLP) and wind stress curl (WSC) in the tropical Pacific and their relationships to El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events. The results reported here show that the OHC and SST anomalies are almost in phase and lead LHF anomalies in the western tropical Pacific (WTP) region, which are preferable to the generation of subsequent atmospheric anomalies in the WTP. We also describe linear relationships between the amplitudes of these variables in the WTP. In addition, the results show that the both WSC and LHF anomalies are in phase with the temporal trend of OHC anomalies in the WTP, and suggest a combined effect of the local WSC and LHF anomaly in the WTP and ENSO-related, off-equatorial, westward propagating OHC anomaly to generate a large OHC anomaly in the WTP. In contrast to the WTP, OHC and SST anomalies are not in phase to the east of the WTP. The results also indicate that OHC anomalies in the WTP have a potential effect on the generation of an equatorial OHC anomaly via both a reflection of waves at the western boundary and atmospheric variations, which force the enhancement of western equatorial OHC anomaly. Therefore, the WTP is a key region where ENSO events are significantly modulated, and OHC anomalies in the WTP play an important role in the subsequent ENSO event.     

风应力桥梁作用下热带太平洋和热带印度洋相互作用的数值试验

利用中等复杂程度全球热带大气和热带海洋模式的数值试验,模拟分析了热带太平洋和热带印度洋通过风应力桥梁的相互作用过程.利用NCEP再分析的1958～1998年SST强迫大气模式得到的风应力与NCEP再分析的同期热通量共同驱动海洋模式,作为控制试验;和控制试验平行,但强迫大气模式的SST在某一海盆取为多年气候平均值的试验作为敏感性试验.比较控制试验与敏感性试验模拟的SST变率,揭示了热带某海盆SST异常通过风应力桥梁作用对其他海盆SST的影响及其过程.数值试验结果表明:热带某海盆SST暖(冷)异常一般总是引起该海盆上空西部西(东)风异常和东部东(西)风异常;热带太平洋SST暖(冷)异常导致年际尺度上印度洋上空东(西)风异常和年代际尺度上热带印度洋风场辐散(合),该风应力导致热带印度洋年际SST暖(冷)异常以及年代际SST冷(暖)异常,但这种异常均较弱;热带印度洋SST暖(冷)异常导致热带太平洋上空东(西)风异常,该风应力异常在年际和年代际尺度上均导致热带太平洋SST冷(暖)异常,但年代际尺度上异常更明显.考虑到热带印度洋SSTA受热带太平洋SSTA影响大,并且热带太平洋SST暖(冷)异常主要通过表面热通量导致热带印度洋SST变暖(冷)的观测事实,文中揭示的热带印度洋SST暖(冷)异常通过风应力桥梁作用导致热带太平洋SST冷(暖)异常的结果表明,热带印度洋SSTA对于热带太平洋SSTA主要起着一种负反馈作用,并且这种负反馈作用在年代际尺度上更为明显.     

热带太平洋海温异常对北极海冰的可能影响

本文利用1950-2015年间Hadley环流中心海冰和海温资料及NCEP/NCAR再分析资料,研究了热带太平洋海温异常对北极海冰的可能影响,并从大气环流和净表面热通量两个角度探讨了可能的物理机制。结果表明,在ENSO事件发展年的夏、秋季节,EP型与CP型El Niño事件与北极海冰异常的联系无明显信号。而La Niña事件期间北极海冰出现显著异常,并且EP型与CP型La Niña之间存在明显差异。EP型La Niña发生时,北极地区巴伦支海、喀拉海关键区海冰异常减少,CP型La Niña事件则对应着东西伯利亚海、楚科奇海地区海冰异常增加。在EP型La Niña发展年的夏、秋季节,热带太平洋海温异常通过遥相关波列,使得巴伦支海、喀拉海海平面气压为负异常并与中纬度气压正异常共同构成类似AO正位相的结构,形成的风场异常有利于北大西洋暖水的输入,同时造成暖平流,偏高的水汽含量进一步加强了净表面热通量收入,使得巴伦支海、喀拉海海冰异常减少。而在CP型La Niña发展年的夏季,东西伯利亚海、楚科奇海关键区受其东侧气旋式环流的影响,以异常北风分量占主导,将海冰从极点附近由北向南输送到关键区,海冰异常增加,而净表面热通量的作用较小。     

20世纪90年代后期南海上层海温变化趋势的转折

In this paper, the interdecadal variability of upper-ocean temperature in the South China Sea(SCS) is investigated based on several objectively analyzed data sets and two reanalysis data sets. The trends of the SCS sea surface temperature(SST) have changed from warming to cooling since the late 1990 s. A heat budget analysis suggests that the warming of the surface mixed layer during 1984–1999 is primarily attributed to the horizontal heat advection and the decrease of upward long wave radiation, with the net surface heat flux playing a damping role due to the increase of upward latent and sensible heat fluxes. On the other hand, the cooling of the surface mixed layer during 2000–2009 is broadly controlled by net surface heat flux, with the radiation flux playing the dominant role. A possible mechanism is explored that the variation of a sea level pressure(SLP) over the North Pacific Ocean may change the prevailing winds over the SCS, which contributes to the change of the SST in the SCS through the horizontal heat advection and heat fluxes.     

基于IPCC预测结果的北太平洋海表面温度变化分析

利用IPCC-AR4气候模式诊断与比较计划(PCMDI)20C3M试验和A1B情景试验模拟数据,研究了在温室气体排放情景下,北太平洋海表面温度的变化及其对太平洋风应力旋度变化的响应。结果表明,温室气体中等排放A1B情景与20C3M情景相比,北太平洋年平均海表面温度表现为一致增温的趋势,且最大的增温中心位于黑潮及其延伸体区。与20C3M试验相比,CO2增加情景下北太平洋中部东风加强,增加向北的Ekman输送,使得北太平洋内区增温。风应力旋度零线也向北略有移动,导致黑潮延伸体向北移动并得到加强,从而引起延伸体区较强增温。风应力旋度零线的纬度附近产生的Rossby波,向西传播到黑潮延伸体区,进一步加强黑潮延伸体区的温度异常。海洋对北太平洋风应力场变化的局地响应及延迟响应,使黑潮延伸体海域海表面增温远大于周围海区。     

Winter-to-winter recurrence of sea surface temperature, salinity and mixed layer depth anomalies

The mean seasonal cycle of mixed layer depth (MLD) in the extratropical oceans has the potential to influence temperature, salinity and mixed layer depth anomalies from one winter to the next. Temperature and salinity anomalies that form at the surface and spread throughout the deep winter mixed layer are sequestered beneath the mixed layer when it shoals in spring, and are then re-entrained into the surface layer in the subsequent fall and winter. Here we document this ‘re-emergence mechanism’ in the North Pacific Ocean using observed SSTs, subsurface temperature fields from a data assimilation system, and coupled atmosphere–ocean model simulations. Observations indicate that the dominant large-scale SST anomaly pattern that forms in the North Pacific during winter recurs in the following winter. The model simulation with mixed layer ocean physics reproduced the winter-to-winter recurrence, while model simulations with observed SSTs specified in the tropical Pacific and a 50 m slab in the North Pacific did not. This difference between the model results indicates that the winter-to-winter SST correlations are the result of the re-emergence mechanism, and not of similar atmospheric forcing of the ocean in consecutive winters. The model experiments also indicate that SST anomalies in the tropical Pacific associated with El Niño are not essential for re-emergence to occur.The recurrence of observed SST and simulated SST and SSS anomalies are found in several regions in the central North Pacific, and are quite strong in the northern (>50°N) part of the basin. The winter-to-winter autocorrelation of SSS anomalies exceed those of SST, since only the latter are strongly damped by surface fluxes. The re-emergence mechanism also has a modest influence on MLD through changes in the vertical stratification in the seasonal thermocline.